Seb Country Analysis 2009 Turkey

Turkey SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

February 26, 2009

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92. E‐mail : [email protected]  

qìêâÉóI=íÜÉ=ÑçêãÉê=ëí~ê=éÉêÑçêãÉêI=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=Ü~îÉ=ÉåíÉêÉÇ=êÉÅÉëëáçå=Å~ìëÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä= ÇçïåíìêåK==tÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóDë=ìåÇÉêäóáåÖ=ëíêÉåÖíÜ=ëÜçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=áí=ïÉ~íÜÉê=íÜÉ=ëÜçÅâ=ÇÉëéáíÉ=~= ÇÉã~åÇáåÖ=~ãçêíáò~íáçå=ëÅÜÉÇìäÉI=çîÉêòÉ~äçìë=éçäáÅáÉë=áë=~Äçìí=íç=ëéçáä=íÜ~í=çééçêíìåáíóK= bäÉÅíáçåë=áå=j~êÅÜ=ã~ó=êÉéêÉëÉåí=~=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ï~íÉêëÜÉÇ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=éçíÉåíá~ä=íç=ê~áëÉ=áåîÉëíçê= ~ééêÉÜÉåëáçåK======

Country Risk Analysis 

GDP

percent

dêçïíÜ=ÅçãÉë=íç=~å=~Äêìéí=Ü~äíK== ^í=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=ä~ëí=óÉ~êI=áåÇìëíêá~ä= 10 éêçÇìÅíáçå=ÇêçééÉÇ=NTKSB=~åÇ= 8 Å~é~Åáíó=ìë~ÖÉ=ê~íáç=áå= 6 ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=ÑÉää=íç=áíë=äçïÉëí= 4 ëáåÅÉ=NVVNK=qÜ~í=ï~ë=åçí=çåäó=ÇìÉ= 2 íç=éäìåÖáåÖ=ÇÉã~åÇ=Ñçê=qìêâáëÜ= 0 éêçÇìÅíë=áå=bìêçéÉI=oìëëá~=~åÇ= -2 -4 çíÜÉê=ã~áå=Éñéçêí=ã~êâÉíëI=Äìí= ~äëç=êÉÑäÉÅíÉÇ=ïÉ~â=ÇçãÉëíáÅ= 2004 2006 2008 2010 ÇÉã~åÇ=~ë=Ä~åâë=Ü~Ç=ÄÉÖìå=íç= ~ééäó=ëíêáÅíÉê=äÉåÇáåÖ=ÅêáíÉêá~K= GDP (change) Forecast tÜáäÉ=Åçåëìãéíáçå=ÇÉã~åÇ=Ü~ë= êÉã~áåÉÇ=~Äçìí=Ñä~í=áå=êÉÅÉåí=èì~êíÉêëI=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉã~åÇ=Ü~ë=Åçåíê~ÅíÉÇ=Äó=~å= Éëíáã~íÉÇ=PJQB=áå=OMMUK=qÜÉ=çåäó=ëáäîÉê=äáåáåÖ=íç=íÜáë=ÇêÉ~êó=ëÅÉå~êáç=áë=íÜ~í=áãéçêí= ÖêçïíÜ=Ü~ë=ÅçãÉ=Ççïå=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=~åÇ=ã~ó=ÉîÉå=Ü~îÉ=íìêåÉÇ=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=íçï~êÇ=íÜÉ= ÉåÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êI=ìåÇÉêëÜççíáåÖ=Éñéçêíë=~åÇ=áãéäóáåÖ=~=éçëáíáîÉ=ÅçåíêáÄìíáçå=Ñêçã= åÉí=Éñéçêíë=íç=damK==qÜÉ=ïÉ~âÉê=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=~äëç=É~ëÉÇ=íáÖÜí=ä~Äçê=ã~êâÉíë=~ë=ëÉÉå= áå=íÜÉ=ìåÉãéäçóãÉåí=ê~íÉ=êáëáåÖ=íç=NOB=~åÇ=íçÖÉíÜÉê=ïáíÜ=äçïÉê=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä= ÅçããçÇáíó=~åÇ=ÉåÉêÖó=éêáÅÉë=ÜÉäéÉÇ=êÉÇìÅÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=éêÉëëìêÉK==qÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=ëÜçìäÇ= ~áÇ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=~ÅÜáÉîÉ=áíë=áåÑä~íáçå=í~êÖÉí=çÑ=TKRB=Äó=óÉ~ê=ÉåÇI=éêçîáÇÉÇI=áí=ÇçÉë= åçí=ëéçáä=íÜÉ=çééçêíìåáíó=Äó=çîÉêòÉ~äçìë=ãçåÉí~êó=É~ëáåÖK==jçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ÑçêÉëÉÉ= ÖêçïíÜ=áå=OMMV=íìêåáåÖ=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=~êçìåÇ=JNKRB=~åÇ=êÉã~áå=~åÉãáÅ=áå=íÜÉ=ãÉÇáìã= íÉêãK=== = dçîÉêåãÉåí=ëíáãìäìëW=OMMV=ÄÉáåÖ=~=óÉ~ê=çÑ=áãéçêí~åí=äçÅ~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçåëI=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~ë=ï~ëíÉÇ=åç=íáãÉ=~åÇ=ëíáãìä~íÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ïáíÜ=ÑáëÅ~ä=~åÇ= ãçåÉí~êó=É~ëáåÖ=íç=ÅçìåíÉê=íÜÉ=~ÇîÉêëÉ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=~åÇ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíëK==få= OMMTI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=äÉí=Öç=íÜÉ=ëí~åÇ~êÇ=ÄÉ~êÉê=çÑ=áíë=åÉï=éêìÇÉåí=éçäáÅáÉë=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä=Åêáëáë=áå=OMMN=~ë=áí=~Ä~åÇçåÉÇ=íÜÉ=QBLdam=éêáã~êó=ëìêéäìë=í~êÖÉíK==få=OMMUI= íÜÉ=éêáã~êó=ëìêéäìë=Ü~Ç=~äêÉ~Çó=ëÜêìåâ=íç=äÉëë=íÜ~å=PBLdamI=~åÇ=ä~íÉëí==éêáî~íÉ= Éëíáã~íÉë=Ñçê=OMMV=ÉîÉå=éçáåí=íç=~=éêáã~êó=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=~ë=åÉï=ãçåíÜäó=Ç~í~=ëÜçï= ãìÅÜ=ïÉ~âÉê=íÜ~å=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=í~ñ=êÉîÉåìÉë=ëáåÅÉ=ä~íÉ=OMMUK=få=~ÇÇáíáçåI=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=êÉÅÉåíäó=ä~ìåÅÜÉÇ=~=ëíáãìäìë=é~Åâ~ÖÉ=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=UB=Äççëí=íç=éìÄäáÅ= ëÉÅíçê=ÅçåëìãéíáçåK=få=åçãáå~ä=íÉêãë=íÜ~í=ëìÖÖÉëíë=~=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=QBLdamK==tÜáäÉ=ëíáää= åçí=ÉñÅÉëëáîÉI=áí=ÅçìäÇ=íêáÖÖÉê=~=åÉï=êçìåÇ=çÑ=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=ÇÉÄí=Çóå~ãáÅëI=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ= éçíÉåíá~ä=íç=Ç~ã~ÖÉ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíDë=Ü~êÇ=ïçå=êÉéìí~íáçå=Ñçê=ÑáëÅ~ä=éêìÇÉåÅÉ=~ÑíÉê= ÅçããÉåÇ~Ääó=Ü~îáåÖ=êÉÇìÅÉÇ=áíë=ÇÉÄí=íç=dam=ê~íáç=íç=QMB=Ñêçã=TSB=ëáåÅÉ=OMMOK= = important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 26, 2009

$Bill./quarter

qÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=É~ëÉë=ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅáÉëK=i~ëí=Ñ~ääI=~ë=áåÑä~íáçå=ÄÉÖ~å=íç=í~éÉê=ãçêÉ= íÜ~å=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=ëÉáòÉÇ=íÜÉ=çééçêíìåáíó=íç=É~ëÉ=ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅó= ê~éáÇäóI=äçïÉêáåÖ=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=Äó=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=R=éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ=éçáåíë=Ñêçã=NTB=é~K=áå=íÜÉ= ÅçìêëÉ=çÑ=~=ÑÉï=èì~êíÉêëK==^ë=~=êÉëìäí=êÉ~ä=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=Å~ãÉ=Ççïå=Ñêçã=~êçìåÇ=RB= íç=OB=áå=êÉ~ä=íáãÉK==bîÉå=íÜçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=êÉÇìÅíáçå=áå=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=êÉ~ä=ê~íÉë=áë=äáâÉäó=äÉëë= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíI=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâÛë=ìåìëì~ä=éêç~ÅíáîÉ=É~ëáåÖ=ëí~åÅÉ=Ü~ë=íêáÖÖÉêÉÇ=~= ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉÄ~íÉK= = mêç~ÅíáîÉ=çê=çîÉê~ÅíáîÉ\==dáîÉå=íÜÉ=ÜáÖÜ=ÑçêÉñ=ÉñéçëìêÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=éêáî~íÉ=ëÉÅíçê=~åÇ=íÜÉ= íáÖÜí=äáèìáÇáíó=ëáíì~íáçå=áå=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçêI=áí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=~êÖìÉÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ= íê~åëãáëëáçå=ãÉÅÜ~åáëã=ã~ó=åçí=éêçîÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅíáîÉ=áå=íê~åëä~íáåÖ=äçïÉê=éçäáÅó=ê~íÉë= áåíç=êÉÇìÅÉÇ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=äÉåÇáåÖ=ê~íÉëK==^äëçI=áå=~=ëáíì~íáçå=çÑ=~å=çîÉêî~äìÉÇ=ÅìêêÉåÅó= ~í=íÜÉ=çìíëÉí=ê~éáÇ=ãçåÉí~êó=É~ëáåÖ=ÅçìäÇ=íêáÖÖÉê=~å=ìåÅçåíêçääÉÇ=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ= ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉK==få=íÜ~í=ëÉåëÉI=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=éçäáÅó=ëÉÉãÉÇ=êáëâó=~åÇ=ãçêÉ=ëç=áå=~å= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=ìåÅÉêí~áå=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=ÉåîáêçåãÉåíK=qÜÉ=Åçêéçê~íÉ=ëÉÅíçê=áå=é~êíáÅìä~ê= Ü~ë=~=ÇÉã~åÇáåÖ=~ãçêíáò~íáçå=ëÅÜÉÇìäÉ=çå=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇÉÄí=áå=OMMV=~åÇ=OMNMK=få= ~ÇÇáíáçåI=íÜÉêÉ=áë=~=åÉ~ê=íÉêã=ÄìåÅÜáåÖ=çÑ=ã~íìêáíáÉë=çå=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉÄí=áå=íÜÉ=Ü~åÇë= çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=áåîÉëíçêëK== = qÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=ÇêçéëK==få=g~åì~êóI=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=Ü~Ç=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íÉÇ=Äó=~êçìåÇ= PMB=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=rpA=ëáåÅÉ=^ìÖìëí=K==tÜáäÉ=íÜ~í=ï~ë=àìëíáÑáÉÇ=~ë=~=ÅçêêÉÅíáçå=íç=íÜÉ= éêÉîáçìë=çîÉêî~äì~íáçåI=ÑìêíÜÉê=ïÉ~âÉåáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=ÅçìäÇ=éêÉëÉåí=ãçêÉ= éêçÄäÉãë=Ñçê=Åçãé~åáÉëÛ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇÉÄí=ëÉêîáÅÉ=íÜ~å=áí=ïçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=íÜÉã=áå=íÉêãë=çÑ= áãéêçîÉÇ=ÅçãéÉíáíáîÉåÉëëK=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=áå=cÉÄêì~êó=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=çåÅÉ=~Ö~áå= ëìêéêáëÉÇ=ã~êâÉíë=ïáíÜ=~=ä~êÖÉê=íÜ~å=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉ=Åìí=çÑ=NRM=ÄëéK== = qÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=áãéêçîÉëK==qÜÉ= Current account deficit ÖçîÉêåãÉåíI=áå=áíë=ÇÉÑÉåëÉI=Å~å=éçáåí=íç= -12,5 ~å=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ëÜ~êé=áãéêçîÉãÉåí=áå= qìêâÉóDë=íê~ÇÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=~ë=íÜÉ=äçïÉê=çáä= -10,0 éêáÅÉ=~äçåÉ=ëÜçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áå= -7,5 OMMV=~äãçëí=Ü~äîÉ=ïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáçå= -5,0 ëÜçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=Åçåí~áå=áãéçêíë=~åÇ= áãéêçîÉ=ÅçãéÉíáîÉåÉëë=áå=ëìééçêí=çÑ= -2,5 ÉñéçêíëK==^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=íÜÉ= 0,0 ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ëÜçìäÇ= 2,5 ÅçãÉ=Ççïå=Ñêçã=~=ÜáÖÜ=äÉîÉä=çÑ=~äãçëí= 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 SBLdam=íç=éÉêÜ~éë=PJQB=çÑ=dam=áå= OMMV=~åÇ=ëí~ó=íÜÉêÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑÉï= óÉ~êë=Ä~êêáåÖ=~=åÉï=çáä=éêáÅÉ=ëÜçÅâK==qÜ~í=ïçìäÇ=äÉëëÉå=~=ã~àçê=ïçêêó=~ãçåÖ= áåîÉëíçêë=~åÇ=~=âÉó=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=ê~íáåÖ=áëëìÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóK=== = KKKÄìí=íÜÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåí=ÅçìäÇ=ëíáää=ïçêëÉåK===kçíïáíÜëí~åÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÅäÉ~ê= áãéêçîÉãÉåí=íç=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=Ä~ä~åÅÉI=çÄëÉêîÉêë=~êÉ=ëíáää=ÅçåÅÉêåÉÇ=~Äçìí= ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë=áå=íÜÉ=íçí~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåíëK=få=OMMVI=qìêâÉó=åÉÉÇë=íç=êÉÑáå~åÅÉ= ~Äçìí=ARM=ÄáääK=ëÜçêí=íÉêã=ÇÉÄí=~åÇ=~Äçìí=ARQ=ÄáääK=ãÉÇáìã=~åÇ=äçåÖ=íÉêã=ÇÉÄí=Ñ~ääáåÖ= ÇìÉ=áå=OMMV=çå=íçé=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáíK==få=éêÉîáçìë=óÉ~êëI=~=ä~êÖÉ=é~êí=çÑ= íÜÉ=êÉÑáå~åÅáåÖ=çÑ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=ï~ë=ãÉí=Äó=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇáêÉÅí=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=~åÇ=çíÜÉê= åçåJÇÉÄí=ÅêÉ~íáåÖ=Å~éáí~ä=áåÑäçïëK=i~ëí=óÉ~ê=íÜÉó=ÑÉää=ëÜ~êéäó=Äó=ANM=ÄáääK=íç=ANQ=ÄáääK= ÅêÉ~íáåÖ=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=íÜ~í=ëìÅÜ=áåÑäçïë=ÅçìäÇ=Çêçé=ÑìêíÜÉê=Äó=AQ=ÄáääK=áå=OMMVK==qÜ~í= ãÉ~åë=qìêâÉó=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=äÉÑí=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=~ãÄáíáçìë=í~ëâ=çÑ=~ííê~ÅíáåÖ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=ANMM=ÄáääK= çÑ=åÉï=Å~éáí~ä=áå=OMMVI=APR=ÄáääK=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=ÑçêÉáÖå=êÉëÉêîÉë=~í=ÉåÇ=çÑ=g~åì~êó=~åÇ=~= ã~àçê=é~êí=çÑ=íÜÉ=ANSR=ÄáääK=åÉí=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=Å~éáí~ä=Ñäçïë=íç=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉíë=áå= OMMV=~ë=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ffcK==E`çãé~êáåÖ=Öêçëë=~åÇ=åÉí==Ñäçïë=áë=çÑ=ÅçìêëÉ=áåÅçêêÉÅíI= Äìí=áí=áë=~í=äÉ~ëí=áãéçêí~åí=íç=åçíÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=åÉí=Ñäçïë=áå=OMMV=ïáää=ëÜêáåâ=SRB= Ñêçã=OMMU=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=ëçìêÅÉI=ïÜáÅÜ=ÅäÉ~êäó=áåÇáÅ~íÉë=íÜÉ=ÖêçïáåÖ= íáÖÜíåÉëë=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=Å~éáí~ä=ã~êâÉíëKF=qÜçëÉ=Éëíáã~íÉë=ïÉêÉ=ã~ÇÉ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=íÜÉ= íçí~ä=çÑ=íÜÉ=åÉï=rp=ÑáëÅ~ä=ëíáãìäìë=é~Åâ~ÖÉ=Ü~Ç=é~ëëÉÇ=`çåÖêÉëëI=~=é~Åâ~ÖÉ=íÜ~í=ïáää= éìí=ãçêÉ=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=Å~éáí~ä=ã~êâÉíë=~ë=íÜÉ=rp=ÄÉÖáå=íç=áëëìÉ=êÉÅçêÇ= ~ãçìåíë=çÑ=qJÄáääë=~åÇ=ÄçåÇë=éêçÄ~Ääó=áå=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=OMMVI=äÉ~îáåÖ=ÉîÉå=äÉëë= ãçåÉó=Ñçê=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉíëK==pç=Ñ~êI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=ÉîÉå=áå=êÉÅÉåí=ãçåíÜëD=ÄÉ~êáëÜ= Source: Reuters EcoWin

2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 26, 2009

Åäáã~íÉ=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=Ñáå~åÅÉ=qìêâÉó=Ü~ë=åçí=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉÇ=ã~àçê=ÇáÑÑáÅìäíáÉë=áå= ãÉÉíáåÖ=áíë=ÉñíÉêå~ä=é~óãÉåí=çÄäáÖ~íáçåëK==tÜáäÉ=áí=áë=åçí=èìáíÉ=ÅäÉ~êI=Üçï=íÜÉ= çåÖçáåÖ=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=~åÇ=ã~íìêáåÖ=ÇÉÄí=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=ëáåÅÉ=ä~íÉ=OMMUI= ëìëéáÅáçå=~êÉ=êáëáåÖ=íÜ~í=ëÜçêí=íÉêã=JJ=çê=Üçí=JJ=ãçåÉóI=ã~ó=ÄÉ=éä~óáåÖ=~å=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= êçäÉI=éÉêÜ~éë=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=ãçåÉó=äÉ~îáåÖ=oìëëá~=çê=íÜÉ=râê~áåÉK==qÜ~í=ïçìäÇ=ãÉ~å= êÉÇìÅÉÇ=èì~äáíó=çÑ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåí=Ñáå~åÅáåÖK====== = mçäáíáÅ~ä=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíëW=Çê~ã~=çê=ãÉäçÇê~ã~\==cçääçïáåÖ=~=óÉ~ê=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëç~éJ çéÉê~I=~í=äÉ~ëí=~ë=ëÉÉå=Ñêçã=~Ñ~êI=íÜÉ=ëí~êâäó=çééçëáåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÑçêÅÉë=çÑ=qìêâÉó=ëáåÅÉ= íÜÉ=éêÉëÉåí=fëä~ãáÅ=^hm=é~êíó=Å~ãÉ=íç=éçïÉê=áå=OMMOI=~êÉ=çåÅÉ=~Ö~áå=éáí=~Ö~áåëí=É~ÅÜ= çíÜÉê=íÜáë=íáãÉ=áå=~=Ä~ííäÉ=Ñçê=äçÅ~ä=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáçåK=^hm=Ü~ë=éêÉëÉåíÉÇ= íÜÉ=çìíÅçãÉ=~ë=~=êÉÑÉêÉåÇìã=çîÉê=áíë=çîÉê~ää=éçäáÅó=ëí~åÅÉ=~åÇ=áë=~áãáåÖ=Ñçê=~í=äÉ~ëí= éêÉëÉêîáåÖ=áíë=ä~íÉëí=é~êäá~ãÉåí~êó=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=êÉëìäí=çÑ=QSB=çÑ=íÜÉ=îçíÉëK=tÜáäÉ=ãçëí= áåîÉëíçêë=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=Ü~ééó=íç=ëÉÉ=íÜÉ=^hm=ÅçåíáåìÉ=ìåÇáëíìêÄÉÇI=ëçãÉ=çÄëÉêîÉêëI= áåÅäìÇáåÖ=ã~åó=ÇçãÉëíáÅI=äççâ=ïáíÜ=ïçêêó=~í=íÜÉ=éêçëéÉÅíë=çÑ=~=ÖççÇ=ÉäÉÅíáçå=êÉëìäí= Ñçê=^hm=ÑÉ~êáåÖ=íÜáë=ã~ó=ëíêÉåÖíÜÉå=íÜÉ=fëä~ãáÅ=Ü~êÇJäáåÉêë=ïáíÜáå=íÜÉ=é~êíóK=== = ^í=ÅêçëëJêç~Çë\==i~ëí=óÉ~ê=^hm=Ü~Ç=íç=ÑáÖÜí=çÑÑ=~íí~Åâë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=çééçëáíáçå=íÜêçìÖÜ= íÜÉ=Åçåëíáíìíáçå~ä=Åçìêí=ÑçääçïáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëçJÅ~ääÉÇ=íìêÄ~å=Å~ëÉ=ïÜÉêÉ=^hm= EìåëìÅÅÉëëÑìääóF=Ü~Ç=~ÇîçÅ~íÉÇ=ïçãÉåÛë=êáÖÜí=íç=ïÉ~ê=íÜÉ=ÜÉ~ÇJëÅ~êÑ=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ= ïáíÜ=fëä~ãáÅ=íê~Çáíáçåë=áå=éìÄäáÅ=áåëíáíìíáçåëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=ìåáîÉêëáíáÉëK==^äíÜçìÖÜ=^hm= ïçå=íÜ~í=Åçìêí=Ä~ííäÉI=Ü~êÇ=ÑÉÉäáåÖë=~åÇ=~=äìëí=Ñçê=êÉîÉåÖÉ=ÅçìäÇ=ëíáää=ÄÉ=ÄêÉïáåÖK== pçãÉ=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ëÉÉ=íÜ~í=áå=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=ÉëÅ~ä~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=bêÖÉåÉâçåJÅ~ëÉ=áå=ïÜáÅÜ=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~éé~êÉåíäó=Ü~ë=ëí~êíÉÇ=~=Üìåí=Ñçê=ÉñíêÉãáëí=çééçåÉåíë=ïÜç=~êÉ=ÄÉáåÖ= ÅÜ~êÖÉÇ=ïáíÜ=~ííÉãéíë=íç=áääÉÖ~ääó=çîÉêíÜêçï=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK==pÜçìäÇ=^hm=áåíÉêéêÉí= íÜÉ=ÉäÉÅíáçå=êÉëìäí=~ë=~å=~ééêçî~ä=çÑ=áíë=fëä~ãáÅ=~ÖÉåÇ~I=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íÉåëáçåë=~êÉ=äáâÉäó=íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=ëÜ~êéäó=~åÇ=íÜÉ=~áê=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉÅçãÉ=êáÑÉ=ïáíÜ=ÅçìéJêìãçêëK==fí=ã~ó=ÄÉ=ë~áÇ= íÜ~í=~í=íÜÉëÉ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=qìêâÉó=~êÉ=~í=ÅêçëëJêç~ÇëI=ïÜÉêÉ=áí=ãìëí=ÅÜççëÉI=áå=ëçãÉïÜ~í= ëáãéäáÑáÉÇ=íÉêãëI==ÄÉíïÉÉå=íÜÉ=ïÉëíÉêåáòÉÇ=^í~íìêâJëí~íÉ=~ë=ÉãÄê~ÅÉÇ=Äó=~=ä~êÖÉ=é~êí= çÑ=íÜÉ=ìêÄ~å=ãáÇÇäÉ=Åä~ëëI=çê=~=Åçìåíêó=çÑ=ãçêÉ=íê~Çáíáçå~ä=fëä~ãáÅ=î~äìÉë=ëìééçêíÉÇ= Äó=~í=äÉ~ëí=~=Éèì~ääó=ä~êÖÉ=é~êí=çÑ=íÜÉ=êìê~ä=éçéìä~íáçåK== = br=ãÉãÄÉêëÜáé=Ñáå~ääó=ëÜÉäîÉÇ\=få=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=îÉáå=ëçãÉ=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ÑçêÉëÉÉ=íÜÉ= åÉÖçíá~íáçåë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=br=çîÉê=qìêâÉóDë=äçåÖëí~åÇáåÖ=èìÉëí=Ñçê=ãÉãÄÉêëÜáé= ÉîÉåíì~ääó=ÄÉáåÖ=ëáÇÉJäáåÉÇ=áÑ=åçí=Ñáå~ääó=~Ä~åÇçåÉÇK==få=OMMVI=qìêâÉó=ïáää=Ü~îÉ=íç= ëçäîÉ=áíë=ÅçãéäáÅ~íÉÇ=êÉä~íáçåëÜáé=íç=íÜÉ=dêÉÉâ=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=`óéêìë=íç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=ëÉêáçìë= ãÉãÄÉêëÜáé=åÉÖçíá~íáçåëK==qÜÉ=dêÉÉâ=é~êí=çÑ=`óéêìë=áë=br=ãÉãÄÉê=Äìí=qìêâÉó=Ü~ë= åçí=Ñìääó=~ÅÅÉéíÉÇ=áíë=ëçîÉêÉáÖåíóK==táíÜçìí=~=êÉëçäìíáçåI=êÉ~ä=åÉÖçíá~íáçåë=êáëâ=íçí~ä= Åçää~éëÉK==cçê=~=ÖêçïáåÖ=åìãÄÉê=çÑ=çÄëÉêîÉêë=íÜ~í=çìíÅçãÉ=ïçìäÇ=åçí=ÅçãÉ=ÉåíáêÉäó= ìåÉñéÉÅíÉÇK==lîÉê=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë=qìêâÉó=Ü~ë=Öê~Çì~ääó=ÇÉí~ÅÜÉÇ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=br=áå= íÉêãë=çÑ=íê~ÇÉ=~åÇ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=êÉä~íáçåëK=^í=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íáãÉ=íÜÉ=br=áë=åçï=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=íç= ëÜçï=ëìÅÜ=éêçÄäÉãë=îáëJ~Jîáë=áíë=åÉï=ãÉãÄÉêë=áå=b~ëíÉêå=bìêçéÉ=íÜ~í=áí=ã~ó=ëççå= äçëÉ=áíë=~ääìêÉ=íç=íÜçëÉ=ëíáää=çìíëáÇÉK=^=qìêâÉó=ïáíÜçìí=áíë=ÑçêãÉê=br=~ëéáê~íáçåë=ã~ó= ~ééÉ~ê=~ë=~=åÉï=“~åáã~äÒ=Äìí=Ä~êêáåÖ=~åó=Çê~ã~íáÅ=ÉîÉåíë=ïÉ=éêÉÑÉê=íç=éä~ó=Ççïå= íÜÉ=ã~ííÉê=êÉÖ~êÇáåÖ=qìêâÉóDë=ÅêÉÇáíïçêíÜáåÉëëK=== = fjc=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=ãçêÉ=áãéçêí~åíK==få=~=ÅçåíÉñí=çÑ=ãçìåíáåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ìåÅÉêí~áåíáÉë=~í= ÜçãÉ=~åÇ=~=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=Åêáëáë=~Äêç~ÇI=qìêâÉó=ãìëí=ÅçåîáåÅÉ=áåîÉëíçêë=áí=Ü~ë=åçí= ~Ä~åÇçåÉÇ=éêìÇÉåí=éçäáÅáÉëK==tÜáäÉ=áí=ëÜçìäÇ=ÅçãÉ=~ë=äáííäÉ=ëìêéêáëÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~ë=ïáëÜÉÇ=íç=êÉí~áå=ÑáëÅ~ä=ÑäÉñáÄáäáíó=~ÜÉ~Ç=çÑ=ìéJÅçãáåÖ=ÉäÉÅíáçåëI=áí= ïçìäÇ=äáâÉäó=ÄÉ=~=ÄáÖ=Çáë~ééçáåíãÉåí=íç=ã~åó=áÑ=íÜÉ=~ííáíìÇÉ=çÑ=ÑáëÅ~ä=ä~êÖÉëëÉ= ëìêîáîÉÇ=éçääáåÖ=Ç~óK=qÜÉ=ÄÉëí=ï~ó=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=íç=èìáÅâäó=ÇáëéÉä=íÜçëÉ=ÑÉ~êë= ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=íç=ÉåíÉê=~=åÉï=éêÉÅ~ìíáçå~êó=fjc=éêçÖê~ã=ïáíÜ=ÅäÉ~ê=äáãáíë=çå=ÑáëÅ~ä=~åÇ= ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅáÉëK= = ==JGJ= = qìêâÉó=áë=~=Åçìåíêó=ïáíÜ=~=äçåÖ=Üáëíçêó=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íìêÄìäÉåÅÉI=ïÜáÅÜ=çå=ëçãÉ= çÅÅ~ëáçåë=Ü~ë=Ääçïå=ìé=ÉîÉå=çîÉê=~éé~êÉåí=íêáîá~äáíáÉëK=eçïÉîÉêI=ëáåÅÉ=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë= íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=ëíêÉåÖíÜÉåÉÇ=ÅçåëáÇÉê~Ääó=~åÇ=ã~åó=Ü~îÉ=ÅçãÉ=íç=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=~= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=éêÉÅ~êáçìë=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëáíì~íáçå=áë=ãìÅÜ=äÉëë=äáâÉäó=íç=íêáÖÖÉê=íÜÉ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä= 3

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 26, 2009

ÅêáëÉë=çÑ=íÜÉ=é~ëíK=tÜáäÉ=íÜÉêÉ=áë=ãìÅÜ=íç=íÜ~í=~êÖìãÉåíI=áí=áë=~äëç=åçíÉÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ= ÇÉíÉêáçê~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=éçëáíáçå=ïáíÜ=êÉÅçêÇ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáíë=áå=êÉÅÉåí= óÉ~êëI=~äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜçëÉ=~êÉ=ëÉí=íç=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=ëÜ~êéäó=áå=íÜÉ=ÑìíìêÉI=Ü~ë=äÉÑí=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=~åÇ= áíë=éêáî~íÉ=Åçêéçê~íÉ=ëÉÅíçê=áå=~=ëáíì~íáçå=çÑ=Ü~îáåÖ=íç=êÉÑáå~åÅÉ=ä~êÖÉ=~ååì~ä= ~ãçêíáò~íáçå=~åÇ=êçää=çîÉê=ëÜçêí=íÉêã=ÇÉÄíK==qÜ~í=ï~ë=É~ëó=áå=íÜÉ=Ü~ééó=Ç~óë=çÑ= ÅÜÉ~é=ãçåÉó=Äìí=ã~ó=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=ÄÉÅçãÉ=~=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖáåÖ=ÉåÇÉ~îçêK==cçê=íÜ~í=êÉ~ëçå=~åÇ= ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=áå=OMMVI=~äÄÉáí=ëíáää=åçí=Çê~ã~íáÅI= çåÉ=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅó=Ü~ë=éìí=qìêâÉó=çå=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=çìíäççâ=áå=áíë=__=ê~íáåÖK==tÉ=í~âÉ=åçíÉ= çÑ=íÜ~í=àìÇÖãÉåí=áå=é~êíáÅìä~ê=áÑ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉä~óë=íÜÉ=ëáÖåáåÖ=çÑ=~=åÉï=fjc= ~ÖêÉÉãÉåí=ÑçääçïáåÖ=ìéJÅçãáåÖ=å~íáçåïáÇÉ=ãìåáÅáé~äáíó=ÉäÉÅíáçåëI=~åÇ=áÑ=íÜÉ= ÉäÉÅíáçå=êÉëìäí=ÖáîÉë=êáëÉ=íç=ÅçåÅÉêåë=êÉÖ~êÇáåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~Äáäáíó=~ë=Éñéä~áåÉÇ=~ÄçîÉK== h Éó=ÑáÖìêÉë

OMMV

mçéìä~íáçå=Eã áääáçåëF

TT

How to read the chart? M oving out from the center reduces risk.

Resilience 12 10 8 6

damLÅ~éáí~=EAF

UMRV

Macro balance

Liquidity

4 2

dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF

JNIRB

fåÑä~íáçå=

0

TIPB

`ìêêK^ ÅÅK=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam

JOIPB

oÉëÉêîÉëLáã éçêíë=Eã çåíÜëF _ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam

Average EM

Indonesia

QPB mÉÉêëW

Information

Turkey

JQISB

dçîÉêåã Éåí=ÇÉÄíLdam bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW cáíÅÜW===__JLåÉÖ pC mW==__JLåÉÖ=

Absence of event risk

R

Graph: The pentagon shows Turkey's risk profile as relatively strong on resilience, but weaker on liquidity. Its Achilles heel is event risk related to a sudden drying up of international liquidity needed to roll over its large and short foreign debt.

^ äÖÉêá~ oçã ~åá~ fåÇçåÉëá~

=

   

Latest developments: Election results

(March 30, 2009)

In the early hours following Election Day, it appears that AKP has won a predicted victory, but a less resounding so than in the 2004 (local) or 2007 (general) elections. According to some analysts this is likely to temper the more radical elements of the party and urge it to seek back to the center of Turkish politics. If correct, that would represent the preferred outcome for investors, ensuring less confrontational politics on Islamic issues and consequently less political noise at least for the near future. In that case we predict that the rating agencies will stop short of executing their down-grade warnings, unless the economic and financial problems should intensify. Election results

DTP/ others SP

100%

MHP

80% 60%

CHP

40% 20%

AKP

0%

2004 Local

2007 General

2009 Local

  4

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 26, 2009

Key data: 2004 2005 GDP (mill. US$) 392374 483820 GDP/capita (US$) 5448 6630 GDP (change) 9,4% 8,4% Investments/GDP 22% 24% Budget balance/GDP -5,4% -1,5% Govt debt/GDP 61% 54% CPI inflation (%) 8,6% 8,2% Money demand (%) 31,0% 24,4% Stock prices 19904 29362 Interest rates 20,5% 14,4% Exch. Rate ($) 1,42 1,34 Trade/GDP (%) 41% 39% Oil price (Brent) $38 $54 Millions US $ Export of goods 68 535 78 365 Imports of goods 91 271 111 366 Other: 8 305 10 913 -14 431 -22 088 Current account (% of GDP) -3,7% -4,6% FDI 2 005 8 967 Loan repayments -25 640 -32 535 Net other capital flows 41 392 53 944 3 327 8 289 Balance of payments PQ=OSR QO=RRP Reserves Total debt 154 460 166 063 o/w short term debt 28 567 35 150 Sources: Oxford Economics and SEB estimates Rating history Fitch (eoy) Moody's (eoy) S&P (eoy)

B+ B1 B+

Type of government: Next elections

2006 529201 7159 6,9% 26% -0,7% 47% 9,6% 21,8% 39861 16,4% 1,43 43% $65

2007 660826 8825 4,6% 26% -1,7% 42% 8,8% 9,6% 48275 17,0% 1,30 42% $73

2008 757463 9989 1,9% 24% -1,8% 39% 10,4% 13,3% 37582 15,8% 1,30 44% $98

2009 61800 8059 -1,5% 21% -4,6% 43% 7,3% 8,0% 28859 11,0% 1,67 42% $45

2010 725361 9335 1,2% 21% -3,5% 42% 6,1% 4,5%

2011 798577 10158 3,0% 22% -3,4% 42% 4,8% 6,8%

12,1% 1,55 41% $59

12,6% 1,54 43% $67

93 611 134 573 8 911 -32 051 -6,1% 19 261 -31 012 59 921 16 119 RU=STO 193 334 40 359

115 364 162 041 8 458 -38 219 -5,8% 19 940 -36 793 66 438 11 366 TM=MPU 235 088 41 995

140 793 193 663 11 454 -41 416 -5,5% 15 133 -44 431 76 804 6 090 TS=NOU 286 247 52 444

117 671 143 816 11 621 -14 524 -2,3% 13 312 -49 950 41 085 -10 077 SS=MRM 301 697 56 616

136 039 168 479 12 344 -20 096 -2,7% 12 244 -51 019 64 566 5 696 TN=TQS 311 582 56 825

157 031 196 409 13 905 -25 474 -3,1% 10 796 -52 098 72 571 5 795 TT=RQN 321 765 56 983

B+ B1 BB-

B B2 B+

B B1 B+

BBBa3 BB-

BBBa3 BB-

Parliamentary Democracy Legislative: 2012; Presidential: 2014 Municipality elections in March 2009

Other: Latest PC deal 1980/fully repaid Latest IMF arrangements 2005 (SBA), Completed

E x c h a n g e ra te s

E x te r n a l tr a d e

R e a l e f fe c ti v e a n d s p o t e u r /T . L ir a

200 190 180

50 40 30

2 ,1 2 ,0

170 160

20 10 0

2 ,2

T R Y /E U R

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

Im p o r ts E x p o r ts Im p o r ts O IL

150 140 130

1 ,9 1 ,8 1 ,7

REE

1 ,6 1 ,5

2004

2005

L o c a l I n d ic e s , C B R T C P I R e a l E f fe c ti ve E xc h a n g e R a te In d e x, A ve ra g e, TRY

2006

2007

2008

S p o t R a te s , E U R /T R Y , C l o se

S o u rc e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W in

S tr ip p e d S p r e a d

In te r e s t r a te s

900

25

800 700 Basis Points

EUR/try

USD (billions)

60

20

600

15

500 400 300

10 Turk

200

5

E m erg i

100

2006 Tu rke y

2007

2006

2007

2008

2008 G o v e rn m e n t B e n c h m a rk s , B id , 5 Y e a r, Y ie ld , C lo s e , T In te rb a n k R a te s , T R L IB O R , 3 M o n th , F ix in g , T R Y P o lic y R a te s , C e n tra l B a n k O /N L e n d in g R a te

E M B I G lo b a S o u r c e : R e u te rs E c o W in

S o u rc e: R e u te rs E c o W in

5

=