Proposal For Aila _arafat Naeem

Research Proposal

Devastating Cyclone “Aila” and its Socio-Economic Impact on Coastal Region of Bangladesh

Submission Date: 20/07/2009

Submitted To: Professor Dr. Md. Saiful Islam Head of Economics Discipline, Khulna University, Bangladesh

Submitted By: Md. Naimur Rasheed Student No: 061538 Khulna University

Abstract Natural disaster is very much common in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is not excluded from its affect. Every year we usually face different types of disaster. Cyclone is one of them. Aila in 2009 is more or less exceptional than the previous disaster occurred in Bangladesh. The cyclone was the fifth natural disaster to affect Bangladesh in the past twelve months. Previously, two monsoon floods and cyclone Sidr had caused extensive damage to agricultural production and physical assets mainly at coastal region. The successive occurrence of these events is a reminder of the extreme vulnerability of the country to the very frequent hydro-meteorological hazards that threaten Bangladesh, and which are likely to increase due to world climate change.

1. Introduction and Theoretical Framework 1.1 Introduction Cyclone is a tropical storm or atmospheric turbulence involving circular motion of winds, occurs in Bangladesh as a natural hazard. The cyclone Aila formed in Bay of Bengal battered Bangladesh's southwestern coast on May 25, leaving at least 179 people dead and over three million affected in about a dozen of districts in the coastal areas. The tropics can be regarded as the region lying between 30°N latitude and 30°S latitude. All the tropical seas of the earth with the exception of the south Atlantic and southeast Pacific give birth to deadly atmospheric phenomena known as tropical cyclones. On an average, 80 tropical cyclones are formed every year all over the globe (BUET, 2008).

1.5 Theoretical Framework Both qualitative and quantitative endeavors will be handled differently in the lines of inquiry. The author tries to accomplish it by following ways:

Aila

Aila Affected Community

Identifying the losses and damages

Find out the pre and post Aila situation

Find out the problem created by the socio-economic losses and damage

Figure: Theoretical Framework

Hiusing Agriculture ( live stock, Rice, fish)

Income Expenditure Housing condition Food security Employment Poverty

1.3 Relevance of the Research Bangladesh is a disaster prone country that is affected almost every year by a natural disaster of some kind. Located between the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal and with three mighty rivers (Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna) converging on its territory, Bangladesh is prone to floods, torrential rains, erosion, and cyclones. Over a period of 100 years, 508 cyclones have affected the Bay of Bengal region, of which 17 percent made landfall in Bangladesh. A severe cyclone occurs almost once every three years. Although the frequency of cyclones is not unusual compared to other cyclone hotspot countries, the impact it causes stands out: 53 percent of the cyclones that claimed more than 5,000 lives took place in Bangladesh (GOB, 2008). This research may help to know the overall socioeconomic scenario after the devastating Aila occured, so it will be very relevent topics for study.

2. Problem Statement Bangladesh is a least-developed, low-income food-deficit country with an estimated 40 percent of the population living below the poverty line. Of these, 56 million people live on 31 US dollar cents per day or 2,122 kcal/capita/day and 36 million live on 27 US dollar cents a day or 1,805 kcal/capita/day (FAO, 2008). Bangladesh is currently facing a creeping inflation, rising budget deficit and foreign exchange challenges. On 25 May 2009 Cyclone Aila hit the south-western parts of Bangladesh. According to the localPress, some 2.3 million people were affected by Aila, many of them stranded in flooded villages. Storm surges in Bangladesh flooded agricultural areas with salty water. Home to roughly 25,000 residents, the coastal island Nijhum Dwip was reported to be completely submerged. In this circumstances this research could be exemplify how severely Aila affect the socioeconomy of Bangladesh coastal region. And it may help to consider the step towards this type of hazards.

3. Purpose of the Study The purpose of the study is found out the scenario of this devastating cyclone and its socioeconomic affect on coastal people of Bangladesh. As we know hundreds of thousands displaced by a cyclone Aila could be homeless until the monsoon season ends in three months, aid workers and the UN warn, despite government assurances most have returned home. The storm destroyed mort than 4,000 kms of roads and embankments, thousands of houses, livestock and other properties in eight districts in southwestern coasts, with affected areas still being flooded twice daily at high tide which is contaminating drinking water. Broadly the author aims to highlight at following cases:

To identify the damage and losses of the socio-economic sectors. To ascertain the problem created by the socio-economic losses.

4. Literature Review 4.1 Review of the related literature The researcer will take the literature review from various books, reports, journals, magazine, seminar papers, suing GIS application and various webaddresses that focus on the issue will be studied during preparation of this rsearch.

4.2 Related literature Heather Blackwell, the head of Oxfam in Bangladesh said the homes of 75,000 families were still damaged, with a third of those families living in ''camp-like'' settlements. Others were living in schools and cyclone shelters, she said. ''Around 75,000 families are displaced, with around five people on average in each family'', Blackwell said. ''About 25,000 families are living in long lines along the embankments. Very few can return to their homes. I think it's very unlikely that we will see much movement of people before the end of the monsoon season''. The Food and disaster minister Abdur Razzak said the economic loss from Aila estimated at 18.85 billion taka (about 269.28 million US dollars) ''The cyclone caused 18.85 billion taka loss, including losses due to damage of rural infrastructures, schools, crops and livestock'',

5. Questions and Hypotheses 5.1 Research question Since the perceived damages and consequences are known, the research question will be as follows: Objectives To identify the damage and losses of the socio-economic sectors To ascertain the problem created by the socio-economic losses.

Research questions 1 .What types of damage are done during Sidr in terms of housing, agriculture?

Expected output Identifying damages and losses of socio-economic sector in terms of housing, agriculture. 1. What is their economic Income pattern and source, condition? Expenditure, housing 2. How their livelihood pattern? condition, Food security, 3. What are the problems created in safety and comfort, health socio-economic sectors? condition, employment and 4. How do the affected people their problems. maintain their family in that period?

5.2 Sub questions Our research will consist of a qualitative part which serves to identify which changes and consequences found in the literature are relevant for our research. Then some sub questions will be addressed:

5.3 Null Hypothesis The null hypothesis will be tested in research as the Aila has no socio economic impact on coastal region of Bangladesh.

5.4 Alternative Hypothesis The alternative hypothesis will be tested in research as the Aila has a significant socio economic impact on coastal region of Bangladesh.

6. Research Strategy – Methodological Framework In the context of an epistemological discussion, our opinion is that qualitative and quantitative methods are complementary to each other. Both qualitative and quantitative research strategies will be combined in this research in a consecutive order. Since we know the perceived affects and the consequences, a qualitative strategy will be applied first in order to clarify, explore and define the concepts. This qualitative part of researchers’ research is of exploratory and inductive nature.

6.1 Research Design and Data collection Data will be collected using semi-structured interviews and a survey. In a chronological order, the following actions will lead to the corresponding results. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Semi-structured interviews Analysis of qualitative data Literature study Survey Analysis of quantitative data

> Qualitative data > Concepts and Hypotheses > Verification and refinement of concepts and hypotheses > Quantitative data > Conclusions on population level

6.2 Data Analysis Qualitative strategy Based on these concepts, dependent and independent variables and, subsequently, hypotheses can be formulated. After refined by a literature study, the final concepts will be displayed in a matrix that clarifies dimensions and indicators. Quantitative strategy The quantitative part consists of a survey and will be analyzed using SPSS. Because the hypothesis and conceptual model are not clear yet, it is not possible to determine which techniques will be used.

6.3 Sample Strategy Following Sampling technique may be considered in this research

Population size



Stratified random Sampling



Different income groups



Proportional Random Sampling



Final target group

6.4 Research quality indicators Qualitative strategy The quality indicators below will be used for evaluating the qualitative part of the research 1. Credibility

2.Confirmability

3.Dependability

Quantitative strategy

The quality indicators below will be used for evaluating the quantitative part of the research on validity and reliability. Reliability 2. Validity In the context of our quantitative research, validity can be divided into the two different types that are described below: 1.

-

Measurement validity External validity Criterion validity

7.Limitations and Delimitations 7.1 Limitations: Time constraints of the survey may be treat as a limitation for an ethnographic study. Because of vast study area and a huge impact of Aila the observation through survey is too much dificult. Communication that will not be revealed during observations. Being an outsider may also limit what is revealed to the researcher.

7.2 Delimitations: The author choosing not to observe multiple samples of affected population, even though such comparisons might be valuable, in order to allow more depth of understanding regarding the group on which the researcher focus. Additionally, the author will not use structured interviews in order to minimise his obtrusiveness and influence on the sample.

8. Significance of the study The coastal area has suffered a financial loss of about Taka 1,020 crore and a production loss of crops of nearly 3.75 lakh tonnes as over 2.50 lakh hectares of land had been submerged due to the recent devastating cyclone Aila. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) disclosed this after conducting a final assessment on the extent of damage to the crops. Various standing crops, including Aus seedbeds, Aus paddy, Boro paddy, jute, chilli, vegetables, nut, palm, mung, betel leaf, banana, papaya and mango, have been damaged as the cyclone Aila hit the south-western parts of the country. Meanwhile, this type of study may help to identify how this damage socio economically impact on the coastal regions people. And the research also can be treat as a side document for further study on this area. This study can promote what type of steps or initiatives should be taken on this circumstences.

References BUET (2008). Field investigation on the impact of cyclone Sidr in the coastal region of Bangladesh. FAO (2008).Food Assistance to cyclone affected populations of southern Bangladesh. GOB, UNDP, World Bank (1993) multipurpose cyclone Shelter Programme. Executive Summary of Final Report. MoFDM (2008). "National plan for disaster management." Piddington, H. (1848). The sailor's horn-book for the law of storms. WFP (2008). Crop and food supply assessment mission. WHO (2007). Communicable disease risk assessment and interventions

And like that other references will be include at the time of prepration of reference portion of main research.

Appendixes Research questionnaire, protocols of interview of target population and various tables of research will be included in appendix portion. For example following tables have been shown here Figure: Research Gape To find out the existing socio-economic condition Research Gape

To ascertain the problem created by the socio-economic losses.

The cyclone over Bangladesh at a glance Date and Year

Maximum

Storm surge

wind speed (km/hr)

Height (Meter)

Death Toll

11May

1965

161

3.7-7.6

19,279

15 December

1965

217

2.4-3.6

873

01 October

1966

139

6.0-6.7

850

12 November

1970

224

6.0-10.0

300,000

25 May

1985

154

3.0-4.6

11,069

29 April

1991

225

6.0-7.6

138,882

19 May

1997

232

3.1-4.6

155

15 November

2007

223

6.1-9.1

3363

25 May

2009

170

5.2-10.0

400

(Source: Bangladesh Metrological Department, 2009)