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KULIAH PEMBUKA
PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Prof Emeritus Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD. Universitas Indonesia Fakultas Ekonomi & Bisnis
Februari 2018
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
5
Continental Asia Mainland SEA
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Maritime SEA
6
GEOGRAPHY is destiny Dari Deklarasi Djuanda 1957 ke UNCLOS 1982 South China Sea Pacific
Indian Ocean
Gambaran perbatasan Negara Indonesia yang memperlihatkan Batas Teritorial, Zona Ekonomi Eksklusif, Batas Landas Kontinen serta Alur Laut Kepulauan Indonesia (ALKI).
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
7
INDONESIA ARCHIPELAGIC SEA LANES UNCLOS 1982 SLoC MALACA
ALKI I
ALKI IIIC ALKI IIIB ALKI II
ALKI IIIA
Note: ALKI = SLOC (Alur Laut Kepulauan Indonesia = Sea-Lane of Communication) Indonesia menghormati prinsip navigasi maritim global seperti yang ditetapkan UNCLOS 1982, dengan membuka ketiga ALKI utara-selatan Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
8
WORLD SEA TRANSPORTATION AND THE ROLE OF
SOUTHEAST ASIA SLOCs - More than half of world’s annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through 3 SLOCs, i.e. Straits Malacca, Sunda/Karimata, Lombok/Macassar - Around a third of all maritime traffic - Roughly around 80% of China’s crude oil imports - Approximately 60% of Japan’s, South Korea’s, and Taiwan’s energy supplies - The oil transported through the Strait of Malacca is more than six times the amount that passes through the Suez Canal. (Foreign Policy, Sept./Oct. 2011) Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
9
Source: World Shipping Council
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
10
Global shipping trade
Main container shipping routes
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
11
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
12
World’s Oil Transit Chokepoints
Source: EIA – World Oil Transit Chokepoints, 2016 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Million barrels daily
13
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
14
Strait of Malacca’s LNG Transit
Source: EIA – World Oil Transit Chokepoints, 2016 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
15
Iron ore and coal seaborne trade routes in 2010 (in mill. tonnes).
Source: IHS Global Insight
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Vulnerable region to higher sea levels and floods
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
16
17
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
18
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
TWENTY LARGEST COUNTRIES AND THEIR POPULATIONS, SELECTED YEARS
(millions)
Jakarta Geopolitical Forum 2017
19
ASEAN 5 - POPULATION PYRAMID 2050 Indonesia
20
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippine
Source: UN DESA Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
ASEAN/CLMV - POPULATION PYRAMID 2050 Cambodia
Laos
Vietnam
21
Myanmar
Brunei Darussalam
Source: UN DESA Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
POPULATION PYRAMID 2050
22
China
Japan
India
Korea
Source: UN DESA Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
23
DEMOGRAPHY is destiny Indonesia’s Potential: demographic bonus BONUS DEMOGRAFI • Indonesia has the fourth ranking population in the world, with 237.6 million people (2010), and the working age population is close to 70% of the total population. Population growth rose to 1.49% in 2010. • Indonesia’s window of “demographic bonus” (only if it accompanied by better quality education to produce skilled workers and more job creation) will close in the next decade, as the dependecy ratio (i.e. ratio of young and elderly to working age) will start to rise after 2030. INDONESIA: Age Structure of Population and Dependency Ratio (%), 1950-2050
Source: Government of Indonesia (2011), “Master Plan: Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP
24
Correlations:
The Middle-Income Trap By Evan Applegate June 13, 2013
Speaking on June 6 in Chengdu, China, Executive Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said his country “has to stand up to the test of striding over the ‘middle-income trap.’ ” Zhang was referring to a well-known phenomenon: Many nations can move from low-income to middle-income status, but as labor costs rise only countries that boost productivity, improve education, and master innovation fully develop.
www.businessweek.com Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
25
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
26
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
27
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
28
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
29
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
30
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
31
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
32
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
33
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
34
A.
Source: HSBC – The VIEW. Asia’s Bond Markets. July 2018
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
35
B.
Source: HSBC – The VIEW. Asia’s Bond Markets. July 2018 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
36
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
37
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
38
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
39
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
40
The Economist commodity-price index June 26th 2018
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
41
The Economist commodity-price index Aug 9th 2018 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
42
The Economist, Aug 9th 2018 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
43
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
44
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
45
The Economist, Aug 9th 2018 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
46
Source: HSBC – The VIEW. Asia’s Bond Markets. July 2018
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
47
RATING
Investme nt grade
Investment rating
BBB+ BBB BBBBB+ BB
Non Investment grade
Reformasi, Demokratisasi, Desentralisasi
B+
Indonesia was “investment grade” before the 1998 crisis
Asia monetary crisis hit in 1997-1998
1st Open & Direct General Election Subsidized Oil price doubled
2ND Global economic crisis in 2008
3RD
BBB-
BB+
Baa3
Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2
B
Ba3
B-
B1
CCC+
B2
CCC
B3
CCC-
Caa1
CC
Caa2 Caa3 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
S&P Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Fitch
Moody's (RHS)
48
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
49
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Crisis: The worst in 3 decades (!)
The Jakarta Post, November 15, 2008
- Events which were calculated to occur once in 20 years in fact occurred much more regularly indicating that risk management assumptions did not reflect the distribution of the actual outcomes (Blankfein, FT, 9/2/2009) Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
50
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD
PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Prof Emeritus Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD. Universitas Indonesia Fakultas Ekonomi & Bisnis
Februari 2018
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
5
Continental Asia Mainland SEA
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Maritime SEA
6
GEOGRAPHY is destiny Dari Deklarasi Djuanda 1957 ke UNCLOS 1982 South China Sea Pacific
Indian Ocean
Gambaran perbatasan Negara Indonesia yang memperlihatkan Batas Teritorial, Zona Ekonomi Eksklusif, Batas Landas Kontinen serta Alur Laut Kepulauan Indonesia (ALKI).
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
7
INDONESIA ARCHIPELAGIC SEA LANES UNCLOS 1982 SLoC MALACA
ALKI I
ALKI IIIC ALKI IIIB ALKI II
ALKI IIIA
Note: ALKI = SLOC (Alur Laut Kepulauan Indonesia = Sea-Lane of Communication) Indonesia menghormati prinsip navigasi maritim global seperti yang ditetapkan UNCLOS 1982, dengan membuka ketiga ALKI utara-selatan Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
8
WORLD SEA TRANSPORTATION AND THE ROLE OF
SOUTHEAST ASIA SLOCs - More than half of world’s annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through 3 SLOCs, i.e. Straits Malacca, Sunda/Karimata, Lombok/Macassar - Around a third of all maritime traffic - Roughly around 80% of China’s crude oil imports - Approximately 60% of Japan’s, South Korea’s, and Taiwan’s energy supplies - The oil transported through the Strait of Malacca is more than six times the amount that passes through the Suez Canal. (Foreign Policy, Sept./Oct. 2011) Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
9
Source: World Shipping Council
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
10
Global shipping trade
Main container shipping routes
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
11
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
12
World’s Oil Transit Chokepoints
Source: EIA – World Oil Transit Chokepoints, 2016 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Million barrels daily
13
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
14
Strait of Malacca’s LNG Transit
Source: EIA – World Oil Transit Chokepoints, 2016 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
15
Iron ore and coal seaborne trade routes in 2010 (in mill. tonnes).
Source: IHS Global Insight
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Vulnerable region to higher sea levels and floods
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
16
17
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
18
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
TWENTY LARGEST COUNTRIES AND THEIR POPULATIONS, SELECTED YEARS
(millions)
Jakarta Geopolitical Forum 2017
19
ASEAN 5 - POPULATION PYRAMID 2050 Indonesia
20
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippine
Source: UN DESA Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
ASEAN/CLMV - POPULATION PYRAMID 2050 Cambodia
Laos
Vietnam
21
Myanmar
Brunei Darussalam
Source: UN DESA Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
POPULATION PYRAMID 2050
22
China
Japan
India
Korea
Source: UN DESA Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
23
DEMOGRAPHY is destiny Indonesia’s Potential: demographic bonus BONUS DEMOGRAFI • Indonesia has the fourth ranking population in the world, with 237.6 million people (2010), and the working age population is close to 70% of the total population. Population growth rose to 1.49% in 2010. • Indonesia’s window of “demographic bonus” (only if it accompanied by better quality education to produce skilled workers and more job creation) will close in the next decade, as the dependecy ratio (i.e. ratio of young and elderly to working age) will start to rise after 2030. INDONESIA: Age Structure of Population and Dependency Ratio (%), 1950-2050
Source: Government of Indonesia (2011), “Master Plan: Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP
24
Correlations:
The Middle-Income Trap By Evan Applegate June 13, 2013
Speaking on June 6 in Chengdu, China, Executive Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said his country “has to stand up to the test of striding over the ‘middle-income trap.’ ” Zhang was referring to a well-known phenomenon: Many nations can move from low-income to middle-income status, but as labor costs rise only countries that boost productivity, improve education, and master innovation fully develop.
www.businessweek.com Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
25
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
26
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
27
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
28
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
29
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
30
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
31
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
32
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
33
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
34
A.
Source: HSBC – The VIEW. Asia’s Bond Markets. July 2018
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
35
B.
Source: HSBC – The VIEW. Asia’s Bond Markets. July 2018 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
36
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
37
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
38
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
39
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
40
The Economist commodity-price index June 26th 2018
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
41
The Economist commodity-price index Aug 9th 2018 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
42
The Economist, Aug 9th 2018 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
43
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
44
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
45
The Economist, Aug 9th 2018 Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
46
Source: HSBC – The VIEW. Asia’s Bond Markets. July 2018
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
47
RATING
Investme nt grade
Investment rating
BBB+ BBB BBBBB+ BB
Non Investment grade
Reformasi, Demokratisasi, Desentralisasi
B+
Indonesia was “investment grade” before the 1998 crisis
Asia monetary crisis hit in 1997-1998
1st Open & Direct General Election Subsidized Oil price doubled
2ND Global economic crisis in 2008
3RD
BBB-
BB+
Baa3
Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2
B
Ba3
B-
B1
CCC+
B2
CCC
B3
CCC-
Caa1
CC
Caa2 Caa3 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
S&P Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Fitch
Moody's (RHS)
48
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
49
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
Crisis: The worst in 3 decades (!)
The Jakarta Post, November 15, 2008
- Events which were calculated to occur once in 20 years in fact occurred much more regularly indicating that risk management assumptions did not reflect the distribution of the actual outcomes (Blankfein, FT, 9/2/2009) Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
50
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD
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