2008 March Poll Data

HUNGARY 2008 MARCH POLL Conducted March 21-26

Forint/euro Forint/euro Forint/euro CPI annualCPI annual end-April end-2008 end-2009 average average COMPANY ANALYST in 2008 in 2009 4cast (GB) Ambrus N/A 250.00 N/A 6.0 N/A Concorde (HU) Samu 256.00 254.00 251.00 6.1 3.5 MKB (HU) Kondrat 260.00 248.00 238.00 6.1 3.6 Citibank (HU) Gargyan 260.00 258.00 254.00 5.9 3.8 Erste Bank (HU) Nyeste N/A 256.00 250.00 6.1 3.5 Raiffeisen (HU) Torok N/A 260.00 260.00 6.0 3.9 OTP Bank (HU) Tardos 260.00 252.50 250.00 6.3 4.0 Lehman (GB) Sepping N/A N/A N/A 6.0 3.5 Danske Bank (DK) Rasmussen N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A K&H Bank (HU) Barcza 250.00 250.00 250.00 6.3 4.0 DZ Bank (HU) Toth 257.00 255.00 N/A N/A N/A GKI Research (HU) Kopik 255.00 250.00 250.00 6.2 4.0 Penzugykutato (HU) Petschnig/Varhegyi 258.00 260.00 258.00 6.0 3.8 Kopint-Datorg (HU) Bartha/Matheika/Palocz 260.00 256.00 254.00 6.0 3.6 ICEG EC (HU) Oszlay N/A N/A N/A 5.8 N/A RBC (GB) Rendell 262.00 275.00 285.00 6.2 3.8 Aegon (HU) Orban 252.00 255.00 252.00 6.1 3.9 CIB (HU) Trippon 257.00 254.00 256.00 6.0 3.7 Takarekbank (HU) Suppan 263.00 260.00 255.00 6.2 3.9 EIU (US) Butt N/A 255.00 249.00 5.9 3.4 Deutche Bank (GB) Edgeworth N/A 275.00 290.00 6.0 3.6 UBS (GB) N/A N/A 250.00 250.00 5.6 3.3 Commerzbank (GB) Nestor 256.00 270.00 264.00 N/A N/A Budapest Fund (HU) Bebesy N/A N/A N/A 6.1 3.8 ING Bank (HU) Nemeth N/A 250.00 250.00 6.0 3.8 Dresdner Kleinwort (GB) Tenconi N/A 256.00 N/A 6.5 3.5

AVERAGE MEDIAN HIGHEST LOWEST FORECASTS CHANGES FROM FEB POLL AVERAGE MEDIAN HIGHEST LOWEST

257.57 257.50 263.00 250.00 14

256.80 255.00 275.00 248.00 22

256.11 252.00 290.00 238.00 19

6.06 6.00 6.50 5.60 23

3.71 3.80 4.00 3.30 21

N/A N/A N/A N/A

-0.15 0.00 -5.00 -2.00

0.86 -3.00 10.00 -12.00

0.16 0.10 0.10 0.20

0.01 0.10 -0.10 0.10

CPI yr/yr CPI yr/yr CPI yr/yr NBH base NBH base NBH base BenchmarkBenchmarkBenchmark in March in Dec in Dec rate rate rate 12-mth yld12-mth yld12-mth yld 2008 2008 2009 end-Marchend-2008 end-2009 end-April end-2008 end-2009 6.6 N/A N/A 8.00 8.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.9 4.8 3.3 7.75 7.00 6.00 N/A N/A N/A 6.7 4.9 3.0 7.75 7.00 6.00 8.50 6.90 6.0 6.7 4.6 3.5 7.75 8.00 7.00 N/A N/A N/A 6.9 4.6 3.1 8.00 7.50 6.25 N/A N/A N/A 6.8 4.8 3.4 8.00 7.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.8 4.3 3.7 8.00 8.50 7.25 8.90 8.30 7.6 N/A 5.1 3.0 7.75 7.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 7.75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.9 5.1 4.0 7.75 8.00 7.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 7.75 7.75 N/A 8.60 8.20 N/A 6.6 5.0 3.6 7.75 7.25 6.00 N/A N/A N/A 6.6 4.5 3.5 7.75 7.50 6.75 8.30 7.80 7.00 6.6 4.7 3.4 8.00 8.00 6.75 8.40 8.00 6.80 6.7 4.6 N/A 8.00 7.25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.9 4.8 2.8 7.75 7.50 6.50 N/A N/A N/A 6.5 5.3 3.2 7.75 7.50 6.50 N/A N/A N/A 6.8 4.3 3.4 7.75 7.25 6.75 N/A N/A N/A 6.9 5.1 3.4 8.00 8.00 6.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.9 3 7.75 7.00 6.50 N/A N/A N/A 6.6 N/A N/A 7.75 8.50 8.50 N/A N/A N/A 6.6 N/A N/A 7.50 5.75 5.75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 7.75 8.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 7.75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.6 5.1 3.2 7.75 7.25 6.75 N/A N/A N/A 7.0 N/A N/A 7.75 7.75 6.50 N/A N/A N/A

6.74 6.70 7.00 6.50 21

4.81 4.80 5.30 4.30 20

3.32 3.40 4.00 2.80 17

7.81 7.75 8.00 7.50 26

7.55 7.50 8.50 5.75 24

6.63 6.50 8.50 5.75 18

8.54 8.50 8.90 8.30 5

7.84 8.00 8.30 6.90 5

6.85 6.90 7.60 6.00 4

N/A N/A N/A N/A

0.23 0.30 -0.20 0.50

-0.02 0.00 0.30 0.00

N/A N/A N/A N/A

0.25 0.25 0.00 0.00

0.07 0.00 1.00 -0.25

N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A

BenchmarkBenchmarkBenchmarkBenchmarkBenchmarkBenchmark 3-yr yld 3-yr yld 3-yr yld 10-yr yld 10-yr yld 10-yr yld end-April end-2008 end-2009 end-April end-2008 end-2009 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 8.80 6.90 6.00 8.00 6.70 6.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 8.50 8.00 7.20 7.30 6.90 6.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 8.75 8.40 N/A 8.10 7.60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 8.80 8.20 6.80 8.00 6.80 6.50 8.80 8.10 7.00 7.80 7.60 6.80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

8.73 8.80 8.80 8.50 5

7.92 8.10 8.40 6.90 6

6.75 6.90 7.20 6.00 4

7.84 8.00 8.10 7.30 5

7.12 6.90 7.60 6.70 5

6.40 6.40 6.80 6.00 4

N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A

Next rate change Date March March March March March March March March March March March March March March March March March March March March March N/A March March March March

Base rate peak When?

First cut?

Decision (bps) 50 25 25 25 50 50 50 25 25 25 25 25 25 50 50 25 25 25 50 25 25 N/A 25 25 25 25

N/A 8.00 8.00 8.00 N/A 8.00 8.50 8.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A 8.0 N/A N/A 8.00 8.25 7.75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Mid-2008 N/A N/A N/A March April/May N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

8.1 8.0 8.5 7.8 10

N/A Autumn Aug Early 2009 N/A Q3 Not before autumn H2 N/A N/A N/A N/A H2 Autumn Q3 Q4 Aug Q3 Sept/Oct N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

NBH threshold historyNBH int. rate when poll conducted Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08

8.38 8.50 7.75 7.13 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.25 6.00 5.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.75 8.00 7.75

10.00 9.50 9.00 8.25 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.25 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.75 7.25 7.75 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50

NBH int. rate when poll conducted

HUNGARY 2008 MARCH POLL Conducted March 21-26 COMPANY ANALYST 4cast (GB) Ambrus Concorde (HU) Samu MKB (HU) Kondrat Citibank (HU) Gargyan Erste Bank (HU) Nyeste Raiffeisen (HU) Torok OTP Bank (HU) Tardos Lehman (GB) Sepping Danske Bank (DK) Rasmussen K&H Bank (HU) Barcza DZ Bank (HU) Toth GKI Research (HU) Kopik Penzugykutato (HU) Petschnig/Varhegyi Kopint-Datorg (HU) Bartha/Matheika/Palocz ICEG EC (HU) Oszlay RBC (GB) Rendell Aegon (HU) Orban CIB (HU) Trippon Takarekbank (HU) Suppan EIU (US) Butt Deutche Bank (GB) Edgeworth UBS (GB) N/A Commerzbank (GB) Nestor Budapest Fund (HU) Bebesy ING Bank (HU) Nemeth Dresdner Kleinwort (GB) Tenconi

AVERAGE MEDIAN HIGHEST LOWEST FORECASTS CHANGES FROM FEB POLL AVERAGE MEDIAN HIGHEST LOWEST

GDP GDP GDP Budget def Budget def growth growth growth GFS HUF bln GFS HUF bln Q1 2008 2009 Q1 2008 N/A 1.7 N/A N/A N/A 0.8 2.1 3.2 N/A N/A 2.4 2.5 3.5 N/A 1030 1.8 1.9 2.9 N/A N/A N/A 2.2 3.2 N/A N/A 1.3 2.2 2.7 N/A N/A 1.0 2.0 3.4 N/A N/A N/A 2.2 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.2 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.7 3.7 500 1080 1.1 2.3 3.2 N/A N/A 1.0 2.2 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.0 3.0 N/A N/A N/A 2.4 3.0 N/A N/A N/A 2.3 3.2 N/A N/A 1.2 2.0 2.8 N/A N/A N/A 2.4 3.6 N/A N/A N/A 1.9 2.9 N/A N/A N/A 2.3 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.9 2.8 N/A N/A N/A 2.0 3.2 N/A N/A

1.31 1.20 2.40 0.80 9

2.15 2.20 2.70 1.70 22

3.12 3.00 3.70 2.70 19

500 500 500 500 1

1055 1055 1080 1030 2

-0.17 -0.30 0.00 0.30

-0.16 0.00 -0.50 -0.30

-0.07 -0.10 -0.30 0.00

N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A

Budget def Budget def Budget def C/A def. C/A def. C/A def. Trade def.Trade def. Trade def. GFS HUF bln ESA pct/GDP ESA pct/GDP EUR bln EUR bln EUR bln EUR mln EUR bln EUR bln 2009 2008 2009 Q4 2008 2009 Feb 2008 2009 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.7 4.2 1.20 5.10 5.50 N/A N/A N/A 1130 3.7 3.7 1.31 5.32 4.80 -80 -0.50 -0.90 N/A 3.8 3.8 1.40 5.40 5.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.0 3.9 N/A 4.90 4.90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.8 4.8 1.30 4.60 6.10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.0 3.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1000 3.9 3.2 1.00 4.50 4.50 50 -0.10 0.00 N/A 4.0 N/A 1.30 5.50 5.70 N/A 0.00 -0.40 N/A 4.0 3.4 1.20 5.00 4.80 N/A 0.20 -0.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.0 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.7 3.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.9 3.5 1.22 5.22 5.00 -100 -0.20 0.3 N/A 4.0 3.6 1.06 4.60 4.90 -20 0.27 N/A N/A 4.0 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

1065 1065 1130 1000 3

3.9 4.0 4.0 3.7 14

3.7 3.6 4.8 3.2 13

1.22 1.22 1.40 1.00 9

5.01 5.05 5.50 4.50 10

5.12 4.95 6.10 4.50 10

-37.5 -50.0 50.0 -100.0 4

-0.06 -0.05 0.27 -0.50 6

-0.30 -0.40 0.30 -0.90 5

N/A N/A N/A N/A

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2

0.20 0.10 0.20 0.20

-0.01 0.00 -0.05 -0.06

-0.12 -0.06 -0.40 -0.10

0.17 0.05 0.60 0.10

N/A N/A N/A N/A

-0.33 -0.30 -0.53 0.00

-0.44 -0.70 -0.50 0.00

Industry* Industry Industry output y/y output y/y output y/y Feb full 2008 full 2009 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 7.5 6.2 7.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.5 7.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.5 6.0 8.0 N/A 7.0 7.8 N/A 6.2 6.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 7.0 9.0 5.6 5.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

6.20 5.60 7.50 5.50 3

6.39 6.20 7.00 5.80 7

7.63 7.65 9.00 6.50 6

N/A N/A N/A N/A

-0.32 -0.80 -0.50 0.00

0.35 0.15 0.00 1.30

HUNGARY 2008 MARCH POLL Conducted March 21-26 COMPANY 4cast (GB) Concorde (HU) MKB (HU) Citibank (HU) Erste Bank (HU) Raiffeisen (HU) OTP Bank (HU) Lehman (GB) Danske Bank (DK) K&H Bank (HU) DZ Bank (HU) GKI Research (HU) Penzugykutato (HU) Kopint-Datorg (HU) ICEG EC (HU) RBC (GB) Aegon (HU) CIB (HU) Takarekbank (HU) EIU (US) Deutche Bank (GB) UBS (GB) Commerzbank (GB) Budapest Fund (HU) ING Bank (HU) Dresdner Kleinwort (GB)

Euro entry Euro entry ANALYST date adjusted Ambrus N/A N/A Samu 2016 2016.0 Kondrat 2018 the earliest 2018.0 Gargyan 2014 2014.0 Nyeste N/A N/A Torok N/A N/A Tardos Not before 2013, later is more likely N/A Sepping N/A N/A Rasmussen N/A N/A Barcza N/A N/A Toth N/A N/A 2012 Kopik 2012.0 Petschnig/Varhegyi 2014 2014.0 Bartha/Matheika/Palocz 2013 2013.0 Oszlay 2014 the earliest 2014.0 Rendell 2014 2014.0 Orban 2016 2016.0 Trippon 2014 2014.0 Suppan 2014.5 2014.5 Butt N/A N/A Edgeworth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Nestor N/A N/A Bebesy N/A N/A Nemeth N/A N/A Tenconi N/A N/A

AVERAGE MEDIAN HIGHEST LOWEST FORECASTS

2014.5 2014.0 2018.0 2012.0 11

CHANGES FROM FEB POLL AVERAGE MEDIAN HIGHEST LOWEST

-0.1 0.0 0.0 -2.0

ERM-2 date N/A 2013.0 2016 the earliest N/A N/A N/A Not before 2011 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2009 2012.0 2011.0 N/A 2011.0 2010.0 2011.0 2012.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

ERM-2 ERM date parity/EUR adjusted F'CAST Adjusted N/A N/A N/A 2013 255.00 255.00 2016 250.00 250.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2009 250.00 250.00 2012 258.00 258.00 2011 260.00 260.00 N/A N/A N/A 2011 280.00 280.00 2010 250.00 250.00 2011 250.00 250.00 2012 250.00 250.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

2011.7 2011.0 2016.0 2009.0 9

255.89 250.00 280.00 250.00 9

-0.1 -1.0 0.0 -1.0

-2.31 -5.00 -2.40 0.00