Kmt Tournament Da Updates

SDI 2008 Tournament Updates

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TOURNAMENT DISAD UPDATES TOURNAMENT DISAD UPDATES...........................................................................................................................1 BUSH UNPOPULAR NOW........................................................................................................................................2 .....................................................................................................................................................................................2 2AC INDIA DEAL FRONTLINE – AT: BUSH BAD................................................................................................3 1AR EXTS - INDIA DEAL NON-UNIQUE – NSG...................................................................................................4 2AC SPENDING DA FRONTLINE............................................................................................................................5 2AC SPENDING FRONTLINE...................................................................................................................................6 2AC SPENDING DA FRONTLINE............................................................................................................................7 SPENDING EXTS #1 – ECONOMY LOW NOW......................................................................................................8 SPENDING EXTS--#1 – ECONOMY LOW NOW...................................................................................................9 SPENDING EXTS - #2 – DEFICIT SPENDING NOW............................................................................................10 SPENDING EXTS - #2 – DEFICIT SPENDING NOW............................................................................................11 SPENDING EXTS - #3 – NO PAY-GO NOW...........................................................................................................12 2AC JAPAN COMPETITIVENES/SOFT POWER DA............................................................................................13 2AC SILVER DA FRONTLINE................................................................................................................................14 SILVER EXTS - #2 – ALT CAUSES TO DEMAND................................................................................................15

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BUSH UNPOPULAR NOW Bush’s disapproval ratings have reached the highest in the nation’s history SACRAMENTO BEE 07-19-2008 [parth] President Bush's disapproval rating in California has reached the highest mark for a president since the Field Poll began tracking White House numbers in 1961, according to its latest survey released Friday. Less than a quarter of California voters – 24 percent – said they approve of Bush's job performance, compared with 71 percent who said they disapprove. The latter mark is higher than Nixon's 70 percent disapproval rating in August 1974, the same month he resigned from office after his role in the Watergate scandal was revealed. Only 18 percent of voters said they approve of Bush's handling of the economy, a drop from 24 percent who said the same in May. Voter appraisal of Bush's handling of the Iraq war has remained steady at 28 percent approval, compared with 27 percent in May. "What's driving this particular poll down are the significantly lower ratings he's getting on the economy," said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. "His Iraq ratings seem to have stabilized. I would consider those to have bottomed out." More Republicans approve of Bush than disapprove, by a 54 percent to 38 percent margin. But the poll found that 90 percent of Democrats and 83 percent of independent voters disapprove of Bush.

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2AC INDIA DEAL FRONTLINE – AT: BUSH BAD FIRST, THE LINK IS NON-UNIQUE – HOUSING BILL WAS A CONCESSION TO THE DEMOCRATS TULSA TODAY 07-26 Paulson's request for the emergency power to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac led to a bipartisan deal on the bill, which also creates a regulator with tighter controls on the government-sponsored mortgage companies, as Republicans long sought. Democrats won concessions in the compromise, including a permanent affordable housing program to be financed by the two companies' profits and the $3.9 billion in grants. AND, NON-UNIQUE – NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP AND IAEA Glenn Kessler July 9, 2008 Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday; Congress May Not Pass U.S.-India Nuclear Pact A10, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/08/AR20080708 01523_pf.html. (Singh) India's civil nuclear agreement with the United States may have cleared a key hurdle in New Delhi this week, but it appears unlikely to win final approval in the U.S. Congress this year, raising the possibility that India could begin nuclear trade with other countries even without the Bush administration's signature deal, according to administration officials and congressional aides. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has struggled to keep his coalition government intact over the controversial deal to give New Delhi access to U.S. nuclear technology for the first time since it conducted a nuclear test in 1974. This week, he secured an agreement with the Samajwadi Party to back the deal, giving him enough support to retain his majority even as the Communists bolted over fears that the pact would infringe on India's sovereignty.But the legislation passed in 2006 -- the so-called Hyde Act -- that gave preliminary approval to the U.S.-India agreement, requires that

Congressional aides said that clock can begin to tick only once India clears two more hurdles -- completing an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, and securing approval from the 45 nations that form the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which governs trade in reactors and uranium. Because of the long August recess, less than 40 days are left in the session before Congress adjourns on Sept. 26. "At this point, both [the IAEA and NSG actions] have to take place in the next couple of weeks" for the deal to be considered by Congress, said Lynne Weil, spokeswoman for the House Foreign Affairs Committee. But the IAEA Board of Governors is not expected to take up the matter until August, whereas the NSG may take several months to reach a consensus. Congress be in 30 days of continuous session to consider it.

AND, NON-UNIQUE – INDIAN PARLIAMENT The Times, July 22, 2008, India parliament launches nuclear debate in vote that could break Government, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article 4372268.ece (Singh) However, opponents programme.

say it will give the United States too much control over India's foreign policy and military nuclear

The confidence vote was triggered when the Communist parties that gave the ruling coalition its parliamentary majority withdrew their support in protest over the nuclear deal. The Communists have since allied themselves with the BJP and other opposition parties to try to bring down the Government over the issue. L.K. Advani, the BJP leader, told parliament that he wanted the nuclear deal to be renegotiated, rather than scrapped. "We are not against nuclear energy. We are not against a very close relationship with America. But we would never like India to become party to an agreement which is unequal," he said.

"This deal makes us a subservient partner. It makes India a junior partner." Meanwhile, the frenzy of backroom dealing intensified, with MPs from both sides defecting amid allegations that votes were being bought for as much as £3 million each. The numbers are still changing, but political analysts say that the Government appears to have won the support of between 268 and 271 MPs, just short of the simple majority it needs in the 543-seat parliament.

the opposition is close behind with an estimated 268 votes, so both sides are now courting a handful of independents and small party members who remain undecided. However,

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1AR EXTS - INDIA DEAL NON-UNIQUE – NSG NO INDIA DEAL IN STATUS QUO – NO NSG APPROVAL BEFORE BUSH TERM ENDS THE ECONOMIST 07-09-2008 “Overconfident India” The Economist Newspaper, http://www.economist.com/world/asia/PrinterFriendly.cfm?storyid=11700198, (Singh) IT CAME like monsoon rain, after a head-aching spell of summer heat. On July 7th, ending months of mixed messages and tiresome speculation, Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, said that India would press ahead “very soon” with a controversial policy: a civil-nuclear co-operation agreement with America.This would give India access to nuclear fuel and technology, despite its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In a country with massive energy needs, and pretensions to global-power status, that would be momentous. Only, the deal is not yet done: it needs approving by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and America's Congress. Winning their blessings before President George Bush's term expires next January will be tight. Not that you would necessarily know this from Indian media coverage of the saga. Most Indian commentators—including those within the ruling Congress party—appear to have concluded that, now that Mr Singh has plumped for it, despite opposition from his government's parliamentary allies, the deal is a deadcert.They may turn out to be right. Mr Bush will certainly push hard for it. But with several other NSG members having expressed concerns, and the attitude of China, India's great rival, still unknown, the deal's safe passage cannot be assumed. Then again, it is unsurprising that so many Indians do assume it. A pronounced feature of their country's rapid emergence is the awesome self-confidence—and sometimes hubris—it inspires in Indian breasts.

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2AC SPENDING DA FRONTLINE FIRST, NON-UNIQUE – ECONOMY LOW NOW – NO UPSWING COMING Reuters, 7/25 [Reuters, “GLOBAL ECONOMY-US consumers less glum, UK growth sputters”, http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2534246520080725?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=10218, July 25, 2008, Nalepka]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell to its lowest level in nearly five years and its annualized growth rate was also down, indicating that an upturn in the business cycle is not yet in sight, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 129.4 in the week to July 18 from 131.1 in the previous period, downwardly revised from 131.2. The decline in the index --to its lowest since it hit 129.0 in the week to October 24, 2003-- was due to higher interest rates and jobless claims and to weaker housing, Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI said in an instant message interview. The index's annualized growth rate slipped to a 10-week low at negative 6.9 percent from minus 6.5 percent, revised down from minus 6.4 percent. "The way a good leading index works is that its level always turns up months before the end of the recession," Achuthan said. "With the WLI level falling to its lowest reading in nearly five years, it is clear that a business cycle recovery is nowhere in sight."

AND, DEFICIT SPENDING NOW AND INEVITABLE OneNewsNow.com, 7/25 [OneNewsNow.com, “Economist: Federal gov't addicted to debt”, http://www.onenewsnow.com/Politics/Default.aspx?id=191252, July 25, 2008, Nalepka]

Washington's addiction to deficit spending will impose "huge direct costs" on future generations of Americans. It is estimated that total federal debt will reach $9.65 trillion when fiscal year 2008 ends September 30, and $10.5 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2009. And in a new op-ed for The Washington Times, University of Mississippi economics professor William Shughart notes that America is "spending more than $250 billion a year just on interest on the national debt." Shughart, a senior fellow at the Independent Institute, says the mountains of red ink have one cause -- excessive spending. "Under the Bush administration over the last few years, we've gotten the biggest expansion in entitlement spending since the New Deal with the Medicare Part D program, massive increases in spending for education under the No Child Left Behind program, and lots of spending on wars on terror, homeland security, the Iraqi War, and the war in Afghanistan," he points out. An economics professor says

But what do these deficit numbers mean for the average American? Shughart says the future tax liability for every man, woman and child in the country is nearly $30,000. And that number more than doubles, he says, when the burden is divided among working Americans.

The economist also blasts the Bush administration for seeking to bail out Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae -- a move that will further increase the federal debt by $5 trillion over night. Congressional analysts estimate the taxpayer cost of propping up the mortgage giants may be as high as $25 billion.

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2AC SPENDING FRONTLINE AND, DEMOCRATS VIOLATING PAY-GO NOW Riedl, 7/1 [Brian M. Riedl is Grover M. Hermann Fellow in Federal Budgetary Affairs in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, “The Iraq War Bill Was the Wrong Place to Create a Permanent New Entitlement”, Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/wm1976.cfm, July 1, 2008, Nalepka]

Democratic Congressional majority has repeatedly boasted of their Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) rules requiring new entitlement and tax bills to be fully offset. Yet the only reason to put this new veterans' entitlement into an "emergency bill" is because such bills are exempt from all budget rules and therefore require no offsets. If such legislative maneuvering was not hypocritical enough, the Senate also bypassed its own rules against: 1) creating new entitlements that significantly It evaded PAYGO. The

increase long-term budget deficits; 2) attaching new entitlement legislation to appropriations bills; and 3) declaring non-emergency expenditures as emergencies. In total, the Senate violated four of its own budget rules.

Of course, this is not the first time the Democratic Congress disregarded its budget rules and increased the budget deficit. They recently waived PAYGO for the bloated farm bill and the tax rebates, and employed blatant gimmicks to cover up PAYGO violations in last year's S-CHIP and higher education bills.[3] By voting to add hundreds of billions of dollars to current and future budget deficits, the Democratic Congress has reduced PAYGO to nothing more than empty rhetoric, a rule to be casually discarded whenever it is not convenient to the Democrats' spending agenda. AND, EXCEPTIONS TO PAY-GO INEVITABLE du Pont, chairman of National Center for Policy Analysis, former governor of Delaware, Wall Street Journal, 1/24/07, [http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/pdupont/?id=110009567], Chinikamwala It all sounds good, very fiscally responsible, but paygo is riddled with deceptions. It does not cover spending increases in existing entitlement programs. So, for example, this year's 4.7% Medicaid spending increase and Medicare's 14% (which includes Bush's senior citizens' drug program) spending increase will be unfunded, and health spending will continue to grow unabated. "Emergency" expenditures are not covered by paygo either; they averaged $22 billion a year in the 1990s, and are $100 billion a year now. And the new House paygo rule contains the blockbuster of all loopholes: The House can pay for short-term spending increases by promising long-term spending cuts. Paygo requires setting spending amounts for the current fiscal year and five or 10 years from now. So Congress presumably can add another $50 billion to next year's spending and comply with paygo by promising to reduce spending by that amount in 2017.

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2AC SPENDING DA FRONTLINE AND, PAY-GO IS BAD – MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO RESTRAIN FEDERAL SPENDING Pieler, The Examiner, 2/8/07, [http://www.examiner.com/a553962~_Pay_go__system_still_isn_t_the_way_to_go.html], Chinikamwala The problem with pay-go is that it’s misguided, a serious threat to economic growth and the taxpayer’s peace-of-mind. Pelosi pay-go makes it harder to cut taxes and more difficult to restrain federal spending. The taxpayer isn’t supposed to worry about the fine print of budgeting, but here a bit of truth-in-packaging is in order. Pay-go doesn’t touch spending bills, and worse, it could worsen the deficit worse by blocking tax relief. The president wants to extend his job-creating tax cuts, which by law expire in a few years, but Pelosi pay-go treats that extension as a new tax cut that must be “paid for” (in tax increases). Anyone who pays income taxes figures out that, miraculously, when you make more money Uncle Sam automatically takes more of it. This is the key to the pay-go trick:

Growth raises incomes, moving folks into higher tax brackets. That’s a tax increase, but not from legislation, and pay-go ignores it. If Congress wants to return some of that tax increase to us, pay-go says no: You have to “pay for” the most modest tax relief with tax hikes on somebody. Somebody usually means everybody.

a tax-raising device disguised as responsible budgeting. Even the president’s spending-only version of pay-go leaves automatic spending programs, entitlements such as Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid, out of the fiscal equation altogether. That’s pretty shocking when you consider those programs, by common consent, pose our biggest long-term fiscal problem. Worse, pay-go makes it tougher for Congress to grapple with the entitlement challenge with So we have nothing more than a fiscal Ponzi scheme,

anything other than tax increases. That’s the heart of the problem, because

under pay-go taxes go up and entitlements grow unchecked, all under the banner of

fiscal restraint. If we had a drive for spending cuts elsewhere, pay-go might cut the deficit. Even then, the deficit matters much less than policies aimed at jobs, growth and low inflation. Low tax rates, open markets and restraint on government spending have spurred economic growth for a quarter century. Pay-go makes it tougher, not easier, to pursue those policies.

any reforms aimed at stimulating private investment to improve beneficiaries’ rateof-return on their payroll taxes will likely be set aside. This is the politics of the status quo, the use of House rules to protect incumbents from tough and forward-looking decisions, all at the expense of the taxpayer. Since pay-go obstructs entitlement reform too,

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>RPS SPECIFIC BELOW AND, NO LINK – LITTLE TO NO GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS NEEDED SHOOCK, JD CANDIDATE, 2007 [Corey, “Blowing in the Wind”, FORDHAM JOURNAL OF CORPORATE FINANCE AND LAW, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa4048/is_200707/ai_n21032683/pg_1?tag=artBody;col1/ ttate] Credits would not be allowed to be carried over from year to year, and the market price would depend on how ambitious the annual increase in the RPS would be.480 In this way, every power retailer (like a utility) would have to determine whether it would be more expensive to produce their own renewable energy or directly subsidize the production of it elsewhere.481 Industry actors that fail to meet the standard would be subjected to steep fines that substantially outpace the fair market value of the energy

Another advantage is that unlike direct government subsidies, no public funding is necessary.483 Furthermore, it is effective in both regulated and competitive wholesale energy markets.484 The overseeing agency would merely be required to certify the annual ownership of the credits themselves, administer penalties for noncompliance, and adjudicate disputes over credit transactions.485 The formula for setting fine rates would be set statutorily along with the credit, making the RPS effectively self-enforcing.482

RPS to avoid costly and time-consuming bureaucratic rule-making procedures. The AWEA also notes that in an energy credit-based RPS scheme, the market value of credits will ultimately determine when the standard "self-sunsets."486 Once a credit becomes worthless, the RPS will have accomplished its goal for at least the year.487 To ensure long-term growth of the renewable energy industry, the RPS will have to start high enough, accelerate fast enough, over a long enough period of time to set off the diminishing rate of return for the credits.488

AND, CASE SOLVES THE INEVITABLE IMPACT – CONTINUED RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUELS GUARANTEES PRICE SHOCKS AND INSTABILITY – IT IS TRY OR DIE WITH THE AFF – WE SOLVE THE TERMINAL IMPACT TO THE DA

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SPENDING EXTS #1 – ECONOMY LOW NOW U.S. economy on the decline now – increased unemployment and housing crisis. The Wall Street Journal 7/25 [Wall Street Journal, “Economy Ain't Good, Markets Say 'Doh!'”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121696610902384119.html?mod=googlenews_wsj, July 25, 2008, Nalepka]

Ah, so the banking sector's troubles aren't over, the economy is still in the dumps and maybe we haven't hit a bottom. That seemed to be the prevailing line of thought yesterday in the U.S. financial markets, where stock prices lost much of their recent gains. Most Asian stock-market benchmarks traded sharply lower today, and the big European share indexes are all down, following the 2.4% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday. Especially hard hit were financial stocks, including the shares of Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Washington Mutual -- a sector besieged for much of this

There was some bad economic news yesterday, including a sharp increase in weekly claims for unemployment insurance reported by the Labor Department, a jump of 34,000 to 406,000. That's the level of jobless claims that dominated the bust era earlier this decade, though this is a volatile economic indicator, and the more stable four-week moving average was up just 4,500 to 382,500. More significantly, the National Association of Realtors reported a 2.6% month-to-month decline in the annual rate of sales of existing homes in June, and a 6.1% tumble in the median home price, as The Wall Street Journal notes. With the housing market so central to the U.S.'s economic problems, and to a banking sector still reeling from the mortgage-market implosion, those real-estate data were among the biggest blows to the markets yesterday. So was an analyst report saying many of WaMu's unsecured creditors are quietly removing their funds from the bank, the year, but one that enjoyed a bump upwards this week following the announcement of financial results so full of pain many investors saw a possible bottom.

Journal says. In another less-than-reassuring development for the financial sector, the state of New York yesterday officially filed civil fraud charges against UBS over an alleged "multibillion-dollar consumer and securities fraud," becoming the latest government entity to take action on charges that investors were pushed into the auction-rate securities market without adequately being informed about the risks, as the Journal reports.

US housing sector weak Balakrishnan, US homes sales at 10-year low, guardian.co.uk, 7/24/08, [http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jul/24/subprimecrisis.useconomy], Chinikamwala Sales of existing homes in the US plummeted by more than double the expected rate, figures showed today, reflecting the continued beleaguered state of the American housing market. The National Association of Realtors said

the pace of existing home sales fell by 2.6% last month to an annual rate of 4.86m

units, a 10-year-low. Economists polled by Reuters were expecting a more modest fall in home resales to 4.93m units. The stock of homes for sale held steady at 4.49m homes, which will take a near record-high 11.1 months to clear at the current sales pace. In a normal housing market, this is usually 5 months. The median national home price declined 6.1% from a year ago to $215,000 (£108,230).

housing is still very weak. This is not something we are going to snap out of quickly." "This is telling us any bottoming in the housing market will be very long and drawn out," said Richard Dekaser, economist at National City Corp. "It will take a long time for inventories to return to normal." Richard Sparks, analyst at Schaeffer's investment research, said: "This is more evidence that

Bill Cheney, economist at John Hancock financial services, said the faster prices fell, the quicker sales would recover. US stocks extended their losses following the poor housing news, with the Dow Jones shedding 120.75 points or 1.04% to 11,511.63. The bad housing data followed a jump in the number of US workers filing new claims for jobless benefits last week. Government data showed a 34,000 rise, which partly reflected normal seasonal volatility. However, the

four-week average of new claims - a better gauge of underlying labour trends - rose to 382,000 from 378,000 the week before, signalling troubled times ahead for the US economy.

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SPENDING EXTS--#1 – ECONOMY LOW NOW Real estate market leading causing recession AFP, US home sales slip another 2.6 percent, AFP, 7/24/08, [http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jYAHdWDsqvtOgymuaLox0RDhsuDg], Chinikamwala US home sales fell another 2.6 percent in June as inventories rose and prices fell with buyers still hesitant in the face of a horrific market slump, industry data showed Thursday. The National Association of Realtors reported sales of existing homes and apartments fell 2.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million. The level is 15.5 percent lower than in June 2007.

The report was also weaker than the average Wall Street estimate of a pace of 4.95 million, and a sign that the real estate market is still struggling to find a bottom. NAR president Richard Gaylord said the association's recent surveys showed "nearly a quarter of potential home buyers are waiting on the sidelines," in the face of declining prices. "However, timing the market can be very tricky, which is why home buyers should always have a long-term view to build wealth." The inventory of unsold homes at the end of June rose 0.2 percent to 4.49 million units, an 11.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 10.8-month supply in May. The median existing-home price for all housing types was 215,100 dollars in June, down 6.1 percent from a year ago.

The US real estate market is in its worst slump in decades after years of sizzling growth fueled by low interest rates and speculation, including a boom in lending to subprime borrowers with poor credit histories.

The slump has pushed the US economy to the brink of recession and triggered massive losses among banks and finance firms, which have been forced to tighten lending.

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SPENDING EXTS - #2 – DEFICIT SPENDING NOW High government spending now – deficit is doubling. Hattiesburgamerican.com, 7/19 [Hattiesburgamerican.com, “Spending like a drunken sailor”, http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080719/OPINION01/807190322, July 19, 2008, Nalepka]

For the past five years, Congress and the White House have been on a spending binge that would embarrass a sailor on shore leave. This has resulted in some of the biggest federal budget deficits in history. In February of this year, the $175.6 billion deficit was a single-month record, 46 percent higher than the previous single month high (recorded in February 2007), and nearly $14 billion more than the deficit for all of fiscal year 2007, which ended last September 30. With the economy in the doldrums and the federal budget at an all-time high, the total deficit for fiscal 2008 (ending this September 30) is expected to top $410 billion - with another $407 billion in red ink forecast for fiscal 2009, both within striking distance of 2004's record annual deficit of $412.7 billion. The mountains of red ink have just one cause: Washington's failure to live within its means. We almost take fiscal irresponsibility for granted. This needs to be changed. Such irresponsibility is a relatively recent phenomenon. Total federal debt in 1940 - that is, all of the government's accumulated deficits from the time of the founding until just before World War II - was just $50.7 billion. In 1947, after the costly war and America's huge investment in the rebuilding of Europe and Japan, the government's total debt stood at $257 billion. It took about 18 years for that figure to double, gradually edging up to $542 billion in 1975. In many of the post-war years the government actually operated in the black. It had a surplus of $4 billion in 1947 (the equivalent of about $38.3 billion in current dollars) and modest surpluses in 1948, '49, '51, '56, '57, 1960 and 1969.

if the estimates of government accountants are accurate, it will have doubled again by the end of the current fiscal year, ending the year at $9.65 trillion, heading upwards to an estimated $10.5 trillion by the end of the next fiscal year. Total federal debt doubled from 1975 to 1982, when it broke the $1 trillion barrier, ending the year at $1.14 trillion. It hit $4.64 trillion in 1994. And

Government spending now - new housing bill recently passed. Huffington Post, 7/24 [Huffington Post, “Let's Add More Debt To the National Total”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hale-stewart/lets-add-more-debt-to-the_b_114692.html, July 24, 2008, Nalepka] From a story talking about the new housing bill: From the WSJ:

The package could also come at a significant cost to the U.S. government, which would be authorized to invest billions of dollars in troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as insure up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages. As a result of the bill, Congress will raise the national debt ceiling to $10.6 trillion from $9.8 trillion. It will also give Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a new, tougher regulator. Let's just add more debt to the total, shall we? After all, we don't have enough debt. And we certainly wouldn't want to do anything that remotely resembles fiscal responsibility. That might send the wrong message to the markets about the US government's intentions. Let's review. First, here is the yearly total of total US government debt outstanding at the end of each federal fiscal year. 09/30/2007 $9,007,653,372,262.48 09/30/2006 $8,506,973,899,215.23 09/30/2005 $7,932,709,661,723.50 09/30/2004 $7,379,052,696,330.32 09/30/2003 $6,783,231,062,743.62 09/30/2002 $6,228,235,965,597.16 09/30/2001 $5,807,463,412,200.06 09/30/2000 $5,674,178,209,886.86

Why are these figures important? Because they indicate there is a systemic problem with the US government's budgeting system. Since the end of fiscal year 2002, the federal government has added at least $500 billion dollars of net new debt per year every year. That indicates the budget has never even come close to being balanced over the last 7 years -- despite rampant claims to the contrary. "But Bonddad -- the national press says the budget deficit is small!" Right -- that's why we're borrowing all that money -- because we're balancing the books of the federal government. Anyone who is reporting the federal government's books are balanced should resign from the financial press right now because they have no idea what they are talking about.

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SPENDING EXTS - #2 – DEFICIT SPENDING NOW Federal spending is high – Bush and Congress raising budget. Riedl, 6/5 [Brian M. Riedl is Grover M. Hermann Fellow in Federal Budgetary Affairs in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, “Congress's Budget Resolution Promises Spending Hikes Now and Tax Hikes Soon”, Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/wm1946.cfm, June 5, 2008, Nalepka]

Federal spending now tops $25,000 per household annually, and the coming Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid costs of 77 million retiring baby boomers threaten to add another $12,000 per household to the taxpayers' annual tab.[3] Rather than address escalating federal spending and the coming

the budget irresponsibly piles on even more spending and debt. Congress's budget would boost FY 2009 discretionary spending (excluding emergencies) by $80 billion, or 8 percent, above this year's level. That amount is also $24 billion over the President's proposed $992 billion.[4] That does not include the extra spending that could result from entitlement tsunami,

64 reserve funds that allow Congress to increase spending further as long as they raise taxes accordingly.

Discretionary spending has already expanded by 45 percent (after inflation) since 2001. While defense spending has received large increases, even non-defense programs have increased by 28 percent under President Bush--at an annual rate that is nearly twice as fast as under President Clinton.[5] Yet, Congress would provide an additional 8 percent increase.

Entitlement spending increases--which are subject to PAYGO rules--get most of the attention, yet each year's discretionary spending increase also matters because it becomes part of the following year's baseline. Over the next decade, the difference between growing discretionary spending by 8 percent annually versus 3 percent annually is a staggering $3.6 trillion--the same cost as extending all the 2001 and This year would represent the second consecutive 8 percent hike in discretionary spending.

2003 tax cuts and fixing the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT).

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SPENDING EXTS - #3 – NO PAY-GO NOW Congress spending is still high – Democrats violating PAYGO. Riedl, 6/5 [Brian M. Riedl is Grover M. Hermann Fellow in Federal Budgetary Affairs in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, “Congress's Budget Resolution Promises Spending Hikes Now and Tax Hikes Soon”, Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/wm1946.cfm, June 5, 2008, Nalepka]

The Democratic congressional majority promised pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) budgeting that would prevent new deficit spending. During the 17 months of their majority, they have used blatant accounting gimmicks, such as fake sunsets and shifting payment dates, to: Pass SCHIP (State Children's Health Insurance) legislation adding $55 billion to the budget deficit; Enact a student loan bill with $15 billion in new deficit spending; and Waive their own PAYGO rules and enact a farm bill that adds approximately $20 billion to the budget deficit, despite record-high farm incomes.[2] Gimmicks such as abusing the "emergency" designation also helped Congress to eventually secure White House acceptance of most of its proposed 9.4 percent increase in discretionary spending. The budget resolution shows that Congress has retained its spending addiction.

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SDI 2008 Tournament Updates

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2AC JAPAN COMPETITIVENES/SOFT POWER DA FIRST, JAPAN CONFIDENCE LOW NOW NEW YORK TIMES 07-02-2008 [“Japan: Manufacturers’ Confidence Falls”, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/02/business/worldbusiness/02fobriefsMANUFACTURER_BRF.html?ref=world business] Confidence at major Japanese manufacturers has slumped to an almost five-year low and large corporations project a significant drop in profits for the half-year through September, a central bank survey showed. But other sections in the quarterly tankan report suggested pockets of strength have cushioned Japan’s slowdown. The index for large manufacturers’ business sentiment fell to 5 in June from 11 in March. Although the figure represented the third straight quarterly drop and was the worst reading since September 2003, it was better than market expectations of 2 to 4 and remained above zero, meaning major manufacturers were marginally more optimistic than pessimistic.

AND, JAPAN’S SOFT POWER DECLINE INEVITABLE – THEY WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE FOREIGN INVESTORS SJ Smith, Sep 5 2007, “If we succeed, the younger generation will ...” archive.japantoday.com, business process engineer, Beck This does represent a loss of financial clout. Basically Japan is losing mind share amongst those who have the money (and hence power) in the world. Increasingly to those who control the money of where to invest Japan doesn't matter. It's simple. If all your best people are in HK are they going to care more and more about Tokyo? If the people with money and influence are dining every night with HK or Chinese or Singapore

The best and brightest will increasingly see HK, China and Singapore as "where it is at". Japan will increasingly be "past it" or "no longer important". Despite advances in IT, having officials where are Japanese officials going to come in and slip in a hint or two?

people on the ground is important. Familiarity is important. This is one of the reasons why so many software companies give students cheap versions of very expensive software. They become familiar with it and then later when they have money they are likely to buy more of what they are familiar with.

As the financial leaders of tomorrow increasingly have no contact with Japan that will decrease Japan's "soft power".

AND, JAPAN CAN NEVER BE A GLOBAL LEADER – MULTIPLE EXTERNAL FACTORS CHECK Joseph S. Nye, December 5, 2005, Dean Emeritus of the Kennedy School, Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations, member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors, Harvard University, “Soft Power in Asia Matters”, belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu, Beck There are limits. Unlike Germany, which repudiated its past aggression and reconciled with its neighbors in the framework of the European Union, Japan has never come to terms with its record in the 1930s and 1940s. The residual suspicion that lingers in countries like China and Korea sets limits on Japan's appeal that are reinforced every time the Japanese prime minister visits Yasukuni Shrine. Japan also faces serious demographic challenges. By mid-century, Japan's population could shrink by 30 percent unless it attracts 17 million immigrants—a hard task in a country historically resistant to immigration. Moreover, the Japanese language is not widely spoken, and Japan's meager English-language skills make it difficult to attract international talent to its universities. Japan's culture remains inward-looking. Looking ahead, China and India are the looming giants of Asia, with their huge populations and rapid economic growth rates. Not only are their military, or "hard power," resources growing; there are signs that their soft-power resources are increasing, too.

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SDI 2008 Tournament Updates

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2AC SILVER DA FRONTLINE FIRST, NON-UNIQUE AND TURN - The Silver Industry is Collapsing because we are not using it enough – PLAN INCREASES THE DEMAND SHEPPERD 07-24-2008 [David, Mineweb staff writer, “Reuters poll says average gold prices to be 30% higher this year and silver to track”, Mineweb, http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=57610&sn=Detail / bansal] Silver is expected to follow gold higher in 2008, with a median forecast of $17.50 an ounce in 2008, almost a third higher than the 2007 average price of $13.37 and up by 15 percent on January's poll. Rising investor interest has boosted silver so far in 2008, with holdings in the iSharesSilver Trust, the largest silver-backed exchange traded fund listed in New York, standing at a record 6,138.45 tonnes on July 22. But prices will struggle to move higher in 2009, with a median forecast of $17.10 an ounce as a slowing global economy knocks demand for industrial usage of the metal. "Silver does tend to track gold higher but the fundamentals are not that good. There's rising mine supply and given the market is more industry driven, demand could suffer in light of the economic slowdown," Standard Chartered's Smith said.

AND, NO SHORTAGE OF SUPPLY FRISBY 06-18-2008 [Dominic, private investor in mining and energy companies, “Is the world really short of silver?” MONEYWEEK, http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48969/is-the-world-really-short-of-silver.html] To investigate further, I contacted Baird and Co, who are the UK’s biggest bullion supplier to the retail market, and spoke to the boss, Tony Baird. When I asked him if

truth to these rumours of a shortage, I got a resounding, “No”. “It’s all rumour,” he said. “These rumours start because people make judgements based on the markets that are available to them. (Not everyone can buy in the London Bullion Market). Then they get on the blogs and rumours spreads. What’s more there is so much misanalysis of figures. If you want silver, I can get you silver in pretty much any quantity you like. From the London Bullion Market or even elsewhere. Scrap silver is not hard to find and we refine it.” But whether you believe in the shortage of physical silver or not, you cannot argue with the fact that investor demand for precious metals is increasing steadily each year. That is a trend that is not set to change but to continue, as more and more people start talking about inflation. We saw our first there was any

programme on mainstream TV on the subject of gold last Friday on BBC1. While it didn’t really touch on the subject of “Why buy Gold?”, it is still another step in the gradual process of increasing investor awareness.” I don’t make predictions about markets,” Baird continued. “That’s sticking your neck out and asking for it to be cut off. But I’ve been in this business for 40 years. At the moment we have buyers in precious metals, but very few sellers. In the ‘70s we had a lot of sellers. People were queuing up to sell their grandmother’s cutlery and their grandfather’s teeth. But now there are very few.” That’s a view that precious metals analyst Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group confirms in his 2008 Gold and Silver Yearbooks. As central banks sell and investor demand increases, more and more gold and silver is passing into private hands. These private investors are not selling their gold and silver. They’re hoarding it.

AND, NON-UNIQUE – DEMAND FOR SILVER EAGLE COIN INCREASING NOW Patrick Burns, May 29, 2008(Patrick, For Some, Dollar Has Silver Lining, Intelligencer Journal, lexis, scheurell) Demand for the Silver Eagle, which is one ounce of 99 percent-pure silver, has become such a popular option for investors that the U.S. Mint can't keep up with demand.

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SDI 2008 Tournament Updates

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SILVER EXTS - #2 – ALT CAUSES TO DEMAND OTHER CAUSES, LIKE JEWELRY, DRIVE THE DEMAND FOR SILVER CAGGESO 07-08-08 [Mike, associate editor, “Silver prices ready to rocket: Four Reasons Why and Two Ways to Buy”, STRAIGHT STOCKS, http://www.straightstocks.com/current-market-news/silver-prices-ready-torocket-four-reasons-why-and-two-ways-to-buy] Silver prices have vaulted an extraordinary 106% in the past two and a half years. More impressive, silver prices have gained 33% since mid December. Now, compare that to how U.S. stocks have fared since then: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has plunged 13.6%; The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 10.5%; The S&P 500 Index has fallen 11.1%. Like gold, silver is a safe haven from inflation and a weak dollar. The prices of the two metals often move parallel to one another. However, silver is poised to rocket - handing investors not only gains in our bear-market economy, but steeper gains than gold. James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, said in his annual forecast that the U.S. economy “will get much worse in 2008, making gold the premier asset of choice, but not the best performing precious metal. That honor will go to silver, which I expect will clear $30 in 2008.” From silver’s current price of $18.33 an ounce, $30 an ounce would be a 63.7% gain. And here are four reasons why

Demand: Silver, quite simply, has better supply and demand characteristics than gold. For 18 straight years now, we’ve consumed more silver above ground than we’ve been able to extract from below ground (compared to only four to five years for gold). That’s because only a portion of silver demand comes from investors. Commercial demand for silver is growing, whether for jewelry, electrical conductors, photographic film or disinfectants. And the rate at which iyndustry finds new, unique uses for the white metal is staggering compared to gold. * Above Ground Supply: Unlike gold, which has been hoarded by central banks for decades, that’s more than probable:

* Supply and

there’s no appreciable aboveground supply of silver. Therefore, whatever is needed must be mined. And there’s very little threat of central banks selling large tranches of silver into the market, which is always an overhanging concern with gold. * Emerging Markets: Despite fears to the contrary, robust industrial demand for silver will continue even if United States slips into recession. That’s because the true driver toward higher commodity prices, in general, is emerging markets like China, India, Russia and Eastern Europe. China’s expansion alone can be compared to the industrial explosions that took place in Japan in the 1960s and the United States at the turn of the last millennium. * Market Capitalization: The silver market is much less capitalized than the gold market. Fewer dollars trade daily on the silver exchange than on the gold exchange. As a result, every dollar spent on silver will have a greater impact on the silver market than dollars spent on gold will have on the gold market. To visualize this concept, consider the relative impact of a rock tossed into a pond versus the same rock being tossed into a puddle.

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