Kmt Elections Updates

SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Elections Updates Elections Updates..........................................................................................................................................................................1 ***AFF*** ...................................................................................................................................................................................2 OBAMA LOSE 2AC ....................................................................................................................................................................2 Ohio 2AC.......................................................................................................................................................................................3 Michigan 2AC...............................................................................................................................................................................4 No Link – Michigan Specific........................................................................................................................................................5 Colorado 2AC................................................................................................................................................................................6 Prefer State Specific Arguments 2AC...........................................................................................................................................7 Obama Lose – General Trends – 1AR...........................................................................................................................................8 Obama Lose – Michigan 1AR ......................................................................................................................................................9 McCain Win.................................................................................................................................................................................10 AT: Republican Turnout...............................................................................................................................................................11 Obama Will Strike Iran................................................................................................................................................................12 2AC – No Internal Link...............................................................................................................................................................13 ***NEG*** ................................................................................................................................................................................14 1NC UNQ....................................................................................................................................................................................14 Obama Wins – Unq Wall ............................................................................................................................................................15 Obama Good 1NC Link...............................................................................................................................................................16 Energy Key Issue / AT: McCain Won’t Get Credit......................................................................................................................17 AT: Economy Outweighs.............................................................................................................................................................18

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

***AFF*** OBAMA LOSE 2AC Obama is losing ground – key states are moving towards McCain Wall Street Journal 7/25/08 http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB121689893266880737.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_leftbox The presidential race is tightening in four key battleground states, with Republican John McCain holding an advantage among white male voters and Democrat Barack Obama keeping his lead among the youngest voters, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. Results of the poll, which was conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com, show the gap narrowing between Sens. McCain and Obama. Sen. Obama leads slightly in Michigan and by double-digits in Wisconsin, but by smaller margins than about one month ago. The two candidates are running statistically even in Colorado and Minnesota, compared to the respective five-point and seven-point lead Sen. Obama had in June.

Obama and McCain are tied – McCain has momentum Washington Times 7/22/08 lexis During the last six weeks, Mr. Obama overseas tour, American voters are

has erred in making unabashed flips-flops. Despite the increased attention he is currently receiving on his beginning to see beyond the glitter that the talented speaker dispensed throughout the Democratic primaries and caucuses. Mr. Obama's poll ratings are the lowest since he clinched the nomination in early June, Rasmussen reported. Mr. Obama and John

McCain are now tied at 42 percent and 41 percent. While Mr. McCain's ratings have remained consistent, Mr. Obama's have dropped 6 percent since the end of the Democratic contest (48 percent of those polled on June 8-10 said they would vote for him). Thus, Mr. Obama did not receive the "bump" in the polls that many commentators expected he would get once the battle with Hillary Clinton came to an end. Rather, his support has weakened.

Election is too close to call – it will turn on issues closer to the election The Washington Quarterly Summer 2008 lexis In the face of all of this, it

is remarkable that McCain runs even in the national polls with Obama and Clinton. State-by-state electoral college rundowns similarly show a general election that is too close to call, likely to turn on events that have not yet occurred and circumstances that have yet to develop.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Ohio 2AC McCain is winning Ohio –polls Rasmussen Reports 7/22/08 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election John McCain has opened a modest lead over Barack Obama in the key swing state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Buckeye State shows McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Last month and the month before McCain held a insignificant one-point lead over Obama.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Michigan 2AC McCain is gaining ground in Michigan Grand Rapids Press 7/25/08 lexis LANSING -- Republican John McCain has narrowed the gap among independents, according to a poll released Thursday.

between himself and Democrat Barack Obama in Michigan, gaining

Forty-six percent of those polled say they would back Obama if the presidential election were held now, while 42 percent would support McCain. Nine percent were undecided. A month ago, Obama held a 48 percent to 42 percent lead over McCain in a Quinnipiac poll.

McCain winning Michigan – independents Grand Rapids Press 7/25/08 lexis In last month's Quinnipiac poll, Obama was leading 46 percent to 38 percent among independents. But that has switched, with McCain now getting 44 percent of the independent vote to 41 percent for Obama. "Senator Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit," Brown said.

Michigan key CNN, 6/16/08 (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/16/obama.michigan/) (CNN) -- There might be a lot of routes to the White House for Sen. Barack Obama, but just about every one of those electoral roads runs through Michigan. That's probably one reason Obama is in Michigan on Monday and Tuesday as he continues a two-week campaign swing focusing on the economy. "It's good to be here with so many good friends," Obama told the crowd at his rally in Flint, Michigan, on Monday. After a primary controversy that left some bad blood among Democrats, Obama is hoping that Michigan is still his friend. Michigan's a battleground -- or swing -- state, one that both political parties will fight for in the presidential election. "It will be hard for Democrats to win without Michigan. They've only done it once in the past 50 years. That was in 1976, when Michigan voted for native son Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter. But Carter made up for it in the South," CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider said. Michigan voted for the Democrats in the last four presidential contests, but it's been close this decade. Former Vice President Al Gore won the state by 5 percentage points in 2000 and Sen. John Kerry came away with a 3-point victory in 2004. The Obama campaign has its eyes on Florida and Ohio, the two crucial states that put President Bush over the top in 2000 and 2004, but it's also exploring other strategies for an electoral victory. Just about every map to victory appears to include keeping Michigan and its 17 electoral votes in the Democratic camp. But there could be a kink in that plan -- Michigan and Florida broke party rules by moving their primaries up into January. None of the major Democratic candidates campaigned in either state during the primaries and Obama removed his name from the ballot in Michigan.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

No Link – Michigan Specific Energy not key to Michigan – economy outweighs their internal link Washington Post 7/24/08 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/07/24/ST2008072401398.html The economy is still the dominant concern of voters in each state. Nearly six in ten respondents in Michigan, a state crippled by the dire problems of the auto industry, cited the economy as the single most important issue in their decision this fall. The war in Iraq ranked second in terms of voter priorities but was named by less than one in five respondents in each state. Potential hot button issues such as terrorism and illegal immigration were cited by fewer than 10 percent of voters in ranking their top priorities.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Colorado 2AC McCain is winning Colorado Denver Post 7/25/08 lexis McCain pulled slightly ahead of Sen. Barack Obama in a new poll of likely Colorado voters, erasing a five-point lead the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee had a month ago. If the election were held today, 46 percent in Colorado would pick the Republican nominee versus 44 percent for Obama, Sen. John

according to the poll, released Thursday by Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University with The Wall Street Journal and Washingtonpost.com. Though the margin is a statistical tie, McCain has gained since June, according to the survey. Obama led in Colorado 49 percent to McCain's 44 percent a month ago. "Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain."

Colorado key Denver Post, 6/30/08 Brimming with individualistic, self-reliant, libertarian-leaning voters, the Rocky Mountain West will play a pivotal role in a year when independent voters are expected to make or break John McCain's and Barack Obama's presidential bids. Voters here in recent elections have backed individual candidates regardless of political affiliation and have responded to messages emphasizing economic populism, fiscal discipline and the balance between individual rights and governmental protections. Already, McCain is emphasizing his 22 years as a Western senator sensitive to the region's issues and personality, and touting his record of standing up to both political parties. Obama is portraying himself as a reformer, someone who won't engage in Washington-style politics and is committed to taking the country in a better direction. While voters have elected Democrats for state and federal offices in these states, those candidates have been moderates or conservatives, many of them more comfortable in cowboy boots and a bolo tie than a Washington, D.C.-style suit. With the exception of former President Bill Clinton's election in 1992 (largely due to the impact of third-party candidate Ross Perot) and reelection four years later, a Democratic candidate has won only one state in the eight-state region since Lyndon Johnson nearly swept it in 1964. "The question is whether the national Democrats are finally in a position to appeal to Western voters," said Dan Kemmis, former speaker and minority leader of the Montana House of Representatives and director of the O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West. "Can they address and be sensitive to Western issues?" The stakes couldn't be higher. If just Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico had cast their electoral votes for John F. Kerry in 2004, he'd be president now. Here's the second half of an in-depth look at four states that could prove pivotal in determining our next president. Colorado and New Mexico are below, and Nevada and Montana can be found here.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Prefer State Specific Arguments 2AC Prefer the our state specific arguments – the election will be won in battle ground states – not popular vote Wall Street Journal 6/27/08 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121448793591307047.html the election will turn on state results, rather than on the national popular vote, the battleground polls may be a better indicator than national polls of how the race is shaping up. A Gallup poll this week shows the two men in a dead heat with 44% each, while a Because

Wednesday Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows Sen. Obama with a 49% to 37% lead.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Obama Lose – General Trends – 1AR UNIQUENESS DEBATE – GROUP IT EXTEND 2AC #1 - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EVIDENCE – McCain is gaining ground in all the key battle ground states – even Obama’s leads are minimal and trends show increasing support for McCain EXTEND 2AC #2 – THE WASHINGTON TIMES EVIDENCE – Obama’s flip flops and post nomination strategy have shifted the tides of public opinion – the candidates are tied in overall numbers – but McCain has momentum – he’s the only one gaining ground – more evidence LA Times 7/25/08 lexis Even as his turn on the global stage hit an emotional peak Thursday with a speech before a cheering crowd of more than 200,000 in Germany, Barack

Obama faced new evidence of stubborn election challenges back home. Fresh polls show that he has been unable to convert weeks of extensive media coverage into a widened lead. And some prominent Democrats whose support could boost his campaign are still not enthusiastic about his candidacy.

Several new surveys show that Obama is in a tight race or even losing ground to Republican John McCain, both nationally and in two important swing states, Colorado and Minnesota. One new poll offered a possible explanation for his troubles: A minority of voters see Obama as a familiar figure with whom they can identify.

Republicans are moving to exploit this vulnerability, trying to encourage unease among voters by building the impression that Obama's overseas trip and other actions show he has a sense of entitlement that suggests he believes the White House is already his.

PREFER THESE UNIQUENESS ARGUMENTS – They subsume their arguments and are predictive - their evidence only speaks to current polls – our evidence talks about trends and momentum which is a more accurate way to decide who will win in November

EXTEND 2AC #3 – The WASHINGTON QUARTERLY EVIDENCE – they should get little to no weight to their disad – the election is too close to call and will hinge on some future action – EVEN IF they win their link arguments we’ll win that other issues would tip making the link inevitable

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Obama Lose – Michigan 1AR THE MICHIGAN DEBATE – GROUP IT EXTEND 2AC #1 – THE GRAND RAPIDS PRESS EVIDENCE – McCain is gaining ground in Michigan – even if they win that Obama is ahead now you should prefer our evidence because it is indicative of future trends EXTEND 2AC #2 – THE GRAND RAPIDS PRESS EVIDENCE - McCain is ahead with independents – the newest polls show that independents have flipped their votes he’s ahead 44% to 41% PREFER THIS EVIDENCE – it cites a poll which was taken AFTER the poll that all their evidence cites – only we read accurate numbers AND – Michigan Key extend CNN evidence – all roads to the white house must run through Michigan – if Obama can’t win there he’ll lose the election

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

McCain Win McCain winning AFP 7/25/08 lexis Another poll released Thursday by Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed McCain had cut Obama's lead in the key battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and overtaken Obama in voter support in Colorado. "It's been a good month for McCain. His movement in these key states, not large except for Minnesota, jibes with the tightening are seeing in the national polls," said Peter Brown, the institute's assistant director.

we

"The good news for McCain is that he has improved his standing in Colorado and Michigan, two states that are critical to each man's strategy," Brown said.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

AT: Republican Turnout Republicans will always turn out – the question is how energized the democrats are The Washington Quarterly Summer 2008 lexis This is not to argue that Republicans will not vote in normal numbers this November. This is a presidential year and very likely to be a very high turnout election. Republicans had every reason in the world to stay home in the November 2006 midterm elections, but their turnout was down only slightly from past midterm performance. More plausible is that Democrats might vote in unusually high numbers, given higher voter turnout among Democrats in their presidential primaries and caucuses this year than among Republicans.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Obama Will Strike Iran Obama will strike Reuters 7/23/08 http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=f62e6baa-e217-4dd2-9baf-35e1f3f54a53 Barack Obama struck a distinctly hawkish tone toward Iran on Wednesday, saying in a southern Israeli town besieged until recently by rocket fire that he would "take no options off the table" to prevent the Islamic republic from obtaining a nuclear bomb. His presence in Sderot, near Gaza, was as significant as his words for Israelis and Jewish American voters who've feared a President Obama would be less committed than President George W. Bush to ensuring Israel's security. Sderot has become a symbolic destination for visiting pro-Israel politicians. Obama's Republican rival for the U.S. presidency, John McCain, stopped off there when he visited Israel in March. But whereas Obama emphasized diplomacy in countering Iran's nuclear ambitions when he was in Jordan on Tuesday, in Sderot his implicit threat to

include the option of a military response to the standoff echoed language Bush has long used.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

2AC – No Internal Link Issues not key to the election – its become a referendum on Obama The Australian 7/25/08 lexis Midway through the election year, one of them: Senator Obama.

the presidential campaign looks less like a race between the two candidates than a referendum on

The key question in the contest isn't over any single issue. The focus has turned to the Democratic candidate himself: can Americans get comfortable with the background and experience level of Senator Obama? This dynamic is underscored in the new poll. The survey's most striking finding: half of all voters say they are focused on what kind of president Senator Obama would be as they decide how they will vote, while only a quarter say they are focused on what kind of president Senator McCain would be.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

***NEG*** 1NC UNQ Obama will win – independents and Bush’s popularity Washington Post 7/24/08 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/07/24/ST2008072401398.html The national political environment -- as reflected in these four statewide polls -- also seems to suggest major hurdles for McCain in the fall. President George W. Bush remains a decidedly unpopular figure to the general public with no more than 31 percent in any of the four states approving of the job he is doing. The numbers are even more daunting among self-identified independents who typically make up the swing vote in a presidential election. In Colorado, where independents have traditionally leaned toward Republicans, seven in ten unaffiliated voters expressed disapproval with the job Bush is doing. Those numbers are nearly identical in each of the other three states.

The polls also reveal widespread pessimism about the future of the country -- never a good sign for the candidate running under the party banner of the incumbent. In Minnesota, just one in five voters called themselves very or somewhat satisfied with "the way things are going in the nation today" while a whopping 77 percent pronounced themselves dissatisfied. The outlook was even worse in the other three states, with dissatisfied voters at 78 percent in Colorado, 81 percent in Wisconsin, and 84 percent in Michigan.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Obama Wins – Unq Wall EXTEND THE WASHINGTON POST EVIDENCE – McCain won’t win – independents are strongly in favor of Obama and Bush’s low popularity make it impossible for McCain to win in the status quo Obama winning – black, women and young voters Wall Street Journal 7/15/08 http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/07/15/latest-quinnipiac-poll-gives-obama-solid-lead/ The latest Quinnipiac University Poll gives Barack Obama a national 50%-41% lead over rival John McCain, bolstered by strong support among blacks, women, and young voters. McCain has a slight lead among men as well as white voters. The candidates split the spoils among independents and seniors.

Obama will win – economy The Australian 7/25/08 lexis Issues are playing a big role, of course. Senator Obama benefits from a climate of economic anxiety that works against Republicans, who tend to take the blame for today's economic woes because they have controlled the White House for seven years. In the survey, a 74 per cent of voters said the country was on the wrong track. Nearly a quarter said they were ``barely getting by economically''.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Obama Good 1NC Link Plan dooms Obama– coherent energy policy leads McCain to victory Caldwell, President of Caldwell Asset Management, Inc investment advisor, 6/17/08 Theo National Post http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/06/17/theo-caldwell-if-the-republicans-promise-to-cut-fuel-costs2008-could-be-their-year.aspx, Drill here, drill now, pay less. This is the mantra of former U.S. speaker of the house Newt Gingrich, whose American Solutions policy group is campaigning for America to begin tapping its own oil resources to combat high gas prices. For all the environmental constraints the U.S. government has placed on domestic oil production (China and Cuba are drilling closer to the U.S. coastline than American companies are allowed to do), polls show Americans would rather pay less for gasoline than fight global warming. Indeed, the price of gas now permeates almost every policy discussion, from foreign affairs to inflation. As we approach the 2008 elections, whichever presidential candidate and party conjures a cogent energy plan — incorporating domestic drilling and defying environmental alarmism — will be rewarded. At first glance, it would seem that spiralling gas prices and frustration at the pumps would hurt the incumbent party. Notwithstanding the Democrats’ majorities in both houses of Congress, it is the Republican party that the public identifies with incumbency, saddled as they are with an unpopular president who catches blame for everything from poor Iraq war planning to inclement weather.

But the religious environmental zealotry of much of the Democrats’ base makes them the party of windmills and stern lectures, not practical solutions. Congressional Democrats have contented themselves with browbeating today’s most politically correct villains, oil executives, while reflexively voting down any proposed energy solution, from domestic drilling to nuclear power. The Democrats’ presidential candidate, Senator Barack Obama, has suggested that high energy costs might carry the benefit of forcing America to change its gluttonous ways, recently chiding his countrymen: “We can’t drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times ... and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK.” Americans did not win the Cold War so they would have to consult Sweden before setting their thermostats. This kind of thinking is anathema to the Land of the Free, and it opens the door for the GOP to capitalize on the energy issue. In 1994, Gingrich’s Republicans achieved a majority in Congress through a simple, common sense platform known as the Contract with America. A onepage roster of eight reforms and 10 proposed Acts, the Contract neatly answered voters’ principal questions of those who seek to govern. To wit, who are you, what do you hope to accomplish, and how will you do it?

In 2008, with energy prices fixing to become the top election issue, combining foreign and domestic policy concerns into a monstrous hybrid of a problem, an understandable and workable proposal could help the GOP again. If every Republican running for office, from freshman House candidates to their presidential nominee, Senator John McCain, spoke with a single, sensible voice on this issue, they could snatch victory from defeat. A first draft might read: “We are Americans too, and we know that energy prices have gotten out of hand. We want to reduce fuel costs for all of us, and cut the number of dollars we send to hostile, oil-producing countries in the Middle East and South America. If you elect us, we will do the following three things: We will begin to tap America’s vast oil reserves, using technological drilling advances that protect the environment. We will also promote alternative energy sources, such as nuclear power, to move us away from an oil-based economy. Finally, we will eliminate barriers to the import of cheaper, more efficient automotive systems that have been successful in other parts of the world.”

If the Republicans agree on such a platform, 2008 could be their year after all.

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SDI 2008

Elections Updates

Energy Key Issue / AT: McCain Won’t Get Credit Energy is a key issue – republicans will take credit for the plan Wall Street Journal 7/25/08 http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB121694403620182961.html?mod=2_1577_leftbox The prolonged stalemate over energy policy raises the stakes for both parties heading into the fall election. Republicans, emboldened by polls indicating rising support among Americans for increased domestic drilling for oil and natural gas, are trying to cast Congress's Democratic leaders and the party's presidential candidate, Barack Obama, as obstructionists responsible for the country's energy crisis. Polls indicate voters trust Democrats over Republicans, by substantial margins, to do a better job on energy. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that 42% of respondents preferred Democrats for dealing with energy policy, versus 22% favoring Republicans. The poll indicated that Democrats' edge on the issue may be slipping; the July poll gave Democrats a 20-point advantage on the issue, versus a 28-point lead in a January poll by The Wall Street Journal and NBC News. Polls of likely voters in four battleground states, conducted this month by Quinnipiac University in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and Washingtonpost.com, show voters in each state say energy policy is more important to them than the war in Iraq.

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AT: Economy Outweighs McCain will frame the plan as an economic issue Wall Street Journal 7/25/08 http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB121694403620182961.html?mod=2_1577_leftbox "These numbers point to an opening for Sen. McCain to redefine the economic issue as being about energy," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

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