Bhr States Elections Updates

SDI 2008-2009 BHR Lab

1 State-specific Politics

McCain will win Michigan............................................................................................................2 Obama will win Michigan ............................................................................................................5 McCain will win Ohio....................................................................................................................6 .........................................................................................................................................................7 Obama will win Ohio ....................................................................................................................8 McCain will win Virginia..............................................................................................................9 Obama will win Virginia.............................................................................................................10 CA Economy Low ........................................................................................................................11 CA econ high now........................................................................................................................14 CA econ resilient..........................................................................................................................16 CA already spending / alt energy solves econ............................................................................17 CA K to US econ...........................................................................................................................18 A2: Alternative energies revamp econ.......................................................................................20

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2 State-specific Politics

McCain will win Michigan McCain is closing the Michigan gap – independents Spangler, 7-25-08, [Todd Spangler, writer for the Detroit Free Press, “McCain gains ground in Michigan, several other states”, Detroit Free Press, July 25, 2008, http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080725/NEWS15/807250386/1215/NEWS15] Not so fast, Obama Nation. In Michigan and a few other key states, the McCainiacs are gaining ground. Quinnipiac University in Connecticut -- which periodically surveys large numbers of likely voters in battleground presidential states -- released results from polls Thursday suggesting Sen. John McCain is clearly competitive with Sen. Barack Obama in Michigan and Minnesota and slightly ahead in Colorado. The poll is good news for McCain, whose campaign needs it after suffering from recent gaffes and the attention Obama has captured during his overseas visit this week. Colorado had been seen as an opportunity for Obama to take a state from the GOP that went for George W. Bush four years ago, and Michigan and Minnesota are states the Democrat needs to hold onto to win. "Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it's leaking a bit," said Peter Brown, assistant director at the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. In Michigan, Obama led McCain 46%-42%, which is outside the 2.4-point margin of error but down from his 48%-42% lead of a month ago. Perhaps more significant is where the shift appears to have occurred in the poll of 1,684 likely voters from July 14-22. In a state where

independent voters make up nearly one-third of the electorate, McCain leads 44%-41% among that group -- though last month Obama led 46%-38% among independents. (The margin of error among this subgroup is just under 4 points.) Meanwhile, McCain has built a 47%-42% edge among men and a 48%-40% edge among white voters. Obama offsets those McCain advantages with a 12-point lead among women and an 86-point advantage with black voters. Obama builds his lead on the strength of a 24-point lead in Wayne County, but McCain has opened an 8-point lead in Macomb and Oakland counties (whose voters are aggregated for the poll). A month ago, they were tied in the northern suburbs. Leah Yoon, a spokeswoman for McCain's campaign in Michigan, said the candidate's message of lower taxes and reducing gas prices "continues to resonate with voters," though she didn't put too much stock in any one poll. Brent Colburn, spokesman for the Obama campaign in the state, said: "Our expectation from Day 1 has been that Michigan is going to be tight all the way to November."

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3 State-specific Politics

McCain gaining on Obama in Michigan – offshore drilling Muskal, 7-25-08, [Michael Muskal, staff writer for the LA Times, “McCain gains on Obama among voters in 4 key states, polls show”, LA Times, July 25, 2008, http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-nacampaign25-2008jul25,0,7388591,print.story] Republican presidential candidate John McCain is tightening the presidential race against Democratic rival Barack Obama in four key states, according to polls released this morning. The four polls conducted by Quinnipiac University in partnership with the Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com show that McCain is running slightly ahead of Obama in Colorado, is close in Minnesota and has narrowed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin. In Colorado, McCain was ahead 46% to 44%. Obama led in Michigan, 46% to 42%; by 46% to 44% in Minnesota and by 50% to 39% in Wisconsin, according to the four state polls posted on the university website. The new polling data come in a week in which Obama has virtually monopolized news coverage of the presidential campaign with a nine-day trip through war zones, the Mideast and Europe. McCain has been struggling to attract any attention for his campaign swing that was supposed to focus on domestic issues. This morning, the likely GOP candidate visited a grocery story in Pennsylvania before heading to Ohio, both states that the McCain camp has targeted as key to victory in the November election. The issue that seems to have helped McCain in the polls released today was his support of offshore drilling for oil. As gasoline prices have risen sharply, other polls have shown that Americans are more likely to support offshore drilling, especially if they are in states where drilling isn't likely. Voters in the four states support offshore drilling by margins of 22 to 31 percentage points. The polls also show that the voters in the four states would support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge by a range of seven to 12 percentage points. Energy policy ranked as the most important issue, eclipsing the war in Iraq, which has garnered most of the attention this week because of Obama's trip. McCain's increased support seems to have come across the board demographically, but especially from independents and men. McCain leads among independents in Michigan and Minnesota. "Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit," Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, stated on the website. "It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain. His movement in these key states, not large except for Minnesota, jibes with the tightening we are seeing in the national polls." This morning, McCain met with voters in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., after canceling a visit to New Orleans because of bad weather. He then traveled to a German restaurant in Columbus, Ohio, campaigning about the same time that Obama spoke in Berlin. McCain ate lunch with local business owners and later mocked Obama's trip while speaking to a small group of reporters who accompanied him to Schmidt's Restaurant und Sausage Haus in the German Village section of Columbus. "I'd love to give a speech in Germany," he said, "or a speech that maybe the German people would be interested in, but I'd much prefer to do it as president of the United States, rather than as a candidate for the office of presidency. And so we're going to be campaigning across the heartland of America and talking about the issues that are challenging America today."

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4 State-specific Politics

McCain can inch ahead of Obama in Michigan – he can get the Hispanic vote Raum, 7-26-08, [Tom Raum, associated press writer for the Orlando Sentinel, “McCain gains as Obama woos Europe”, Orlando Sentinel, July 26, 2008, http://www.orlandosentinel.com/orlmccain2608jul26,0,1409508,print.story]

In the face of Barack Obama's overseas tour de force, rival presidential candidate John McCain struggled to be heard. Yet amid the awkward moments, he managed to campaign busily in key battleground states and to raise millions of dollars at fundraisers. Polls in many states that typically swing between Republican and Democratic candidates are close, and some are tightening. The Arizona Republican sought to turn this to his advantage in what was clearly a difficult week to be a stay-at-home candidate. He repeatedly emphasized his long military and congressional background, scolded the Illinois Democrat from afar on foreign policy and kept playfully fueling speculation that he was close to picking a running mate. McCain faced another opportunity to showcase his history as a Vietnam prisoner of war in a speech Friday in Denver to the American GI Forum Convention, a largely Hispanic military group. That also gave him a chance to court the valued Hispanic vote. In his speech, McCain ridiculed Obama for "the audacity of hopelessness" in his policies on Iraq. McCain contended that Obama's policies -- he opposed sending more troops to Iraq in the "surge" that McCain supported -- would have led to defeat there and in Afghanistan. McCain also met the Dalai Lama in Aspen, Colo., before heading home for the weekend. It was to be his first visit with the Tibetan spiritual leader. Obama was in France on Friday, nearing the end of his international campaign trip. In a news conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Obama warned Iran not to wait for the next U.S. president to take office before yielding to Western demands to dismantle its nuclear-weapons program. Obama is to end his trip today with talks with British officials. While Obama was in the Mideast and Europe, McCain was in New Hampshire, Maine, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Colorado. Everywhere he went, however, McCain drew warm and appreciative crowds. No matter that many of those in the audiences were senior citizens; seniors vote in big numbers. Charles Black, a senior McCain adviser, said that Obama's trip clearly had an impact on McCain's campaigning. "Most of the days we wanted to talk about jobs and energy," he said. "Naturally, with his trip overseas, we were asked to react." Still, Black said, "in the places we went, we dominated local news." In polls, McCain has inched ahead of Obama in Colorado, come close in Minnesota and narrowed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to Quinnipiac University surveys of likely voters in these battleground states. The polls, taken for The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com, showed voters in each state saying energy policy is more important than the war in Iraq.

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SDI 2008-2009 BHR Lab

5 State-specific Politics

Obama will win Michigan Obama will win Michigan, but not by much – this is our brink Muskal, 7-25-08, [Michael Muskal, staff writer for the LA Times, “McCain gains on Obama among voters in 4 key states, polls show”, LA Times, July 25, 2008, http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-nacampaign25-2008jul25,0,7388591,print.story] Republican presidential candidate John McCain is tightening the presidential race against Democratic rival Barack Obama in four key states, according to polls released this morning. The four polls conducted by Quinnipiac University in partnership with the Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com show that McCain is running slightly ahead of Obama in Colorado, is close in Minnesota and has narrowed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin. In Colorado, McCain was ahead 46% to 44%. Obama led in Michigan, 46% to 42%; by 46% to 44% in Minnesota and by 50% to 39% in Wisconsin, according to the four state polls posted on the university website. The new polling data come in a week in which Obama has virtually monopolized news coverage of the presidential campaign with a nine-day trip through war zones, the Mideast and Europe. McCain has been struggling to attract any attention for his campaign swing that was supposed to focus on domestic issues. This morning, the likely GOP candidate visited a grocery story in Pennsylvania before heading to Ohio, both states that the McCain camp has targeted as key to victory in the November election. The issue that seems to have helped McCain in the polls released today was his support of offshore drilling for oil. As gasoline prices have risen sharply, other polls have shown that Americans are more likely to support offshore drilling, especially if they are in states where drilling isn't likely. Voters in the four states support offshore drilling by margins of 22 to 31 percentage points. The polls also show that the voters in the four states would support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge by a range of seven to 12 percentage points. Energy policy ranked as the most important issue, eclipsing the war in Iraq, which has garnered most of the attention this week because of Obama's trip. McCain's increased support seems to have come across the board demographically, but especially from independents and men. McCain leads among independents in Michigan and Minnesota. "Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit," Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, stated on the website. "It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain. His movement in these key states, not large except for Minnesota, jibes with the tightening we are seeing in the national polls." This morning, McCain met with voters in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., after canceling a visit to New Orleans because of bad weather. He then traveled to a German restaurant in Columbus, Ohio, campaigning about the same time that Obama spoke in Berlin. McCain ate lunch with local business owners and later mocked Obama's trip while speaking to a small group of reporters who accompanied him to Schmidt's Restaurant und Sausage Haus in the German Village section of Columbus. "I'd love to give a speech in Germany," he said, "or a speech that maybe the German people would be interested in, but I'd much prefer to do it as president of the United States, rather than as a candidate for the office of presidency. And so we're going to be campaigning across the heartland of America and talking about the issues that are challenging America today."

Obama will win Michigan – polls prove Fox News, 7-24-08, [FoxNews.com, “Poll: McCain makes gains in 4 swing states”, Foxnews.com, July 24, 2008, http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/24/mccain-makes-gains-in-4-swing-states/] A new poll shows John McCain made gains on Barack Obama in four key November battleground states — Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin — giving McCain a slight edge in one state, and chipping away at Obama’s lead in the others. The Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/WashingtonPost.com poll showed McCain tentatively ahead of Obama in Colorado by 2 percentage points, with McCain at 46 percentage points, and Obama at 44. One month ago, Obama held 49-44 percent lead. McCain’s biggest gain in the other three states was in Minnesota. In June, Obama held a 17 percentage-point lead over his rival; this month, the split had dwindled to 46-44 in favor of Obama. In Michigan and Wisconsin, McCain’s earnings came in the form of Obama’s losses. In both states, Obama lost 2 percentage points of support from a month earlier. The July Michigan data showed Obama with a 46-42 percent lead; the Wisconsin numbers put Obama with a 50-39 percent lead. The July 14-22 surveys quizzed likely voters. The margin of error in Colorado was +/- 2.6 percent; in Michigan, +/- 2.4 percent; in Minnesota, +/- 2.8 percent; and in Wisconsin, +/- 3 percent.

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SDI 2008-2009 BHR Lab

6 State-specific Politics

McCain will win Ohio McCain will win Ohio TransWorldNews, 7-24-2008, [Transworldnews.com, “Ohio Poll Released by Rasmussen Reports: Barack Obama 40%”, July 24, 2008, http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=54307&cat=5] Here are the latest results from the Ohio poll by Rasmussen Reports published on USAElectionPolls.com: There were 500 voters polled on 7/21. Rasmussen Reports Date: 7/21 Ohio Added: 7/22/08 John McCain 46% Barack Obama 40% Unsure 7% Other 7% Seven percent (7%) of voters say they’d prefer a third party candidate over either McCain or Obama and another 7% remain undecided. When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 52% to 42%. McCain is now viewed favorably by 57%, little changed from a month ago. Obama gets favorable marks from 50% of the state’s voters, down three points from June but up three points since May. Nationally, the candidates are very competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. McCain is supported by 88% of Republicans and Obama earns the vote from 74% of Democrats. Both candidates gain three points from within their own party when leaners are included. However, McCain’s lead among unaffiliated voters jumps from a nine-point advantage without leaners to twenty-three points with leaners. Among white Democrats in Ohio, Obama leads 71% to 21% (with leaners). Fifty-one percent (51%) of Ohio voters believe most reporters are trying to help Obama win the election. Just 13% believe they are trying to help McCain and 21% think the journalists are attempting to present unbiased coverage. These figures are similar to the results of a national survey released yesterday. Economic issues are most important to 49% of Ohio voters while national security concerns are the top priority for 24%. Obama has an eighteen point advantage among those most concerned with economic issues while McCain leads 79% to 21% among those who focus primarily on national security issues. Sixty-four percent (64%) support offshore oil drilling while 22% are opposed. These figures are close to the national average. Fifty-four percent (54%) say reducing the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment. Just 28% disagree and say protecting the environment is more important. A recent national survey showed that Al Gore’s proposals for clean energy are viewed by voters as unrealistic and costly.

McCain will win Ohio – offshore drilling Kleefeld, 7-22-08, [Eric Kleefeld, staff writer for TPM, “New Poll gives McCain Ten-point lead in Ohio”, July 22, 2008, http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/new_poll_gives_mccain_big_lead.php] Barack Obama might not actually be doing so well in Ohio, after all, a new Rasmussen poll suggests. The numbers: McCain 52%, Obama 42%. A month ago, John McCain had a tight one-point lead. McCain's push for offshore drilling could be helping him here, as 64% of respondents were found to support it, against only 22% opposing it. This is the opposite of yesterday's release by Public Policy Polling (D), which gave Obama an eight-point lead.

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SDI 2008-2009 BHR Lab

7 State-specific Politics

McCain will win Ohio – polls Nichanian, 7-23-08, [Daniel Nichanian, writer for the Huffington Post, “New polls: An unexpected Uptick for McCain”, July 23, 2008, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-nichanian/new-polls-an-unexpectedu_b_114468.html]

Obama is unable to open any sort of significant lead in Gallup and Rasmussen's national tracking polls, despite predictions that he would benefit from the intense coverage of his foreign trip. The First,

two candidates are tied at 46% in Rasmussen and Obama has a 3% lead (down from 6% yesterday) in Gallup in what is Gallup's first poll entirely taken after Obama left the United States. In Ohio, Rasmussen contradicts yesterday's PPP survey and finds McCain with a solid lead: 46% to 40%, 52% to 42% with leaners. That's an improvement over the 1% edge he had last month. Obama's favorability rating is only at 50%, compared to 57% for McCain. In New Hampshire, ARG revists last month's finding that Obama had a large 12% lead and finds him ahead 47% to 45% thanks a slight lead among independent voters. In Florida, ARG also shows the numbers shifting in McCain's direction. Contrary to the 5% lead Obama enjoyed last month, McCain now gets 47% to Obama's 45%. The sample's partisan breakdown is good for Democrats, but Obama only gets 73% of the Democratic vote. The two candidates are tied among Hispanics, suggesting the Cuban vote remains solidly anchored in the Republican camp. In Michigan, the reputable pollster EPIC-MRA finds a toss-up, with Obama narrowly besting McCain 43% to 41%, well within the survey's margin of error. McCain was ahead by 4% in EPIC's May poll, so this is progress for Obama, but it is also much closer to what other recent polls had been suggesting. Only in Colorado does Obama's situation improve in Rasmussen's latest poll. The Democrat leads 49% to 42% but only 50% to 47% with leaners included. Here again, Obama has a problem with his favorability rating: 48% of respondents view him unfavorably (31% very) versus 39% for McCain. For McCain to be leading in a poll from Ohio and from Florida on the same day while also pulling into a toss-up in Michigan's most reputable poll is certainly cause for Republicans to celebrate, particularly when both the FL and OH surveys show the Arizona Senator progressing by 7%. This also serves as a reminder that toss-up states (like Ohio) are defined not only by consistently tight results (as we have seen in New Hampshire yesterday and today) but also by the fact that there is no agreement between polls as to who is leading or by what margin. What is especially problematic for the Obama campaign is today's polls is the high unfavorable ratings he is suffering from, not only in Ohio but also in Colorado. In both of these states McCain does disproportionately well when leaners are pushed (gaining a net 4% in both states), suggesting that undecided voters have a surprisingly negative view of the Illinois Senator. This echoes the ceiling problem I talked about yesterday -- but that discussion concerned Southern red states, not swing states in which Obama has to do well.

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SDI 2008-2009 BHR Lab

8 State-specific Politics

Obama will win Ohio Obama will in Ohio – polls Hershey, 7-22-08, [William Hershey, staff writer for the Dayton Daily News, “Polls show Obama leading McCain in Ohio”, July 22, 2008, http://www.daytondailynews.com/n/content/oh/story/news/local/2008/07/21/ddn072208ohioprez.html?cxtype=rss& cxsvc=7&cxcat=16] Democrat Barack Obama has a solid lead over Republican John McCain in Ohio thanks to overwhelming support from black voters, according to a new presidential poll. The poll from Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, N.C., showed Obama leading McCain 48-42 percent overall in Ohio among likely voters, but 91-6 percent among black voters. McCain led 46-42 percent among white voters. "McCain's only hope is to get more white votes," said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. "He's not going to move the black vote at all."

Obama will win Ohio – polls Benen, 7-22-088, [Steve Benen, writer for the Carpetbagger Report, “Tuesday’s Campaign Round-up”, July 22, 2008, http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/16281.html] I’m a little skeptical that the margin is this large, but Public

Policy Polling’s (D) latest numbers show Obama leading McCain in Ohio by eight, 48% to 40%. * The latest Granite State survey from the University of New Hampshire shows Obama leading McCain there by three, 46% to 43%. * According to a poll conducted by the new progressive pro-Israel group J Street, Obama is more popular among American Jews than Joe Lieberman is. * Rasmussen shows McCain continuing to lead Obama in Georgia, 48% to 39%. * A new poll from the Detroit News shows Obama with a narrow lead in Michigan, 43% to 41%. * The Obama campaign is creating a position to serve as a liaison to the Muslim-American community. * Rasmussen continues to show a competitive race in Alaska, where McCain now leads Obama by five, 45% to 40%.

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SDI 2008-2009 BHR Lab

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McCain will win Virginia McCain closing the gap in Virginia Lambro, 7-28-08, [Donald Lambro, writer for the Washington Times, “McCain seen closing gap in key states”, July 28, 2008, http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/jul/28/obama-ad-surge-yields-no-measurable-impact/] Sen. Barack Obama's summer saturation ad campaign in key battleground states has not increased the Illinois Democrat's poll numbers, according to senior strategists for Sen. John McCain's campaign and recent independent polling. Instead, the race has further tightened in some of the pivotal states that are among the Obama campaign's biggest ad buys - states that both candidates need to reach the winning number of 270 electoral votes. The Obama campaign, flush with cash, is spending record amounts of money on big media buys in states like Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Colorado and Michigan, but the latest

polls show that, if anything, the polling in these states has either changed little or the Arizona Republican has narrowed the gap in them. McCain strategists told The Washington Times that they have been closely monitoring the large amounts of cash that Mr. Obama is spending on TV ads in these and a dozen other competitive states to see whether they were moving the Illinois senator's numbers in the race.

McCain will win Virginia – but not by much TMC, 7-24-08, [TMCNews, “Polls: Race is tight in Va.”, July 24, 2008, http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2008/07/24/3564396.htm] The latest Rasmussen poll also shows McCain and Obama in a virtual tie. McCain is preferred by 48 percent to 47 percent for Obama. The results of the Rasmuss en survey, conducted July 17 and based on responses from 500 likely voters, could vary 4.5 percentage points in either direction. The Public Policy and Rasmussen polls support the contention of both political parties that Virginia, which hasn't sided with a Democrat for president since 1964, may be in play this year. "It seems safe to say that Virginia will be one of the more closely contested states in the country this fall," said Dean Debnam, president of Raleigh, N.C.,-based Public Policy Polling. The Public Policy survey, echoing Rasmussen, puts former Democratic Gov. Mark R. Warner far ahead of former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring five-term Republican John W. Warner.

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SDI 2008-2009 BHR Lab

10 State-specific Politics

Obama will win Virginia Obama will win Virginia – polls ABC News, 7-24-08, [ABC News, “Obama Maintains Virginia Lead”, July 24, 2008, http://www.wset.com/news/stories/0708/538461.html]

A new poll shows Barack Obama (web|news|bio) with a slight edge over John McCain (web|news|bio) in Virginia. Public Policy Polling's latest survey of Virginia voters shows Obama leading McCain 46percent to 44-percent. It's much like last month when Obama had 47 to McCain's 45. The group's president says Virginia's polls are remarkably stable from month to month, unlike states like Ohio and Florida. Dean Debnam says it seems safe to say that Virginia will be one of the most closely contested states in the country this fall.

Obama will win Virginia TMC, 7-24-08, [TMCNews, “Polls: Race is tight in Va.”, July 24, 2008, http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2008/07/24/3564396.htm]

Different day. Different poll. Same result. A survey released yesterday by Public Policy Polling shows Barack Obama and John McCain nearly neck-and-neck in traditionally Republican Virginia. Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is favored by 46 percent. McCain, the Republican nominee-in-waiting, is preferred by 44 percent. Ten percent are undecided. The presidential race in Virginia could be considered a dead heat, because the 2-percentagepoint spread between the candidates is within the July 17-through-Sunday poll's margin of error, plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. Public Policy Polling interviewed 1,327 likely voters.

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SDI 2008-2009 BHR Lab

11 State-specific Politics CA Economy Low

California economy is low now – housing market proves San Francisco Chronicle 7/25/08 Sam Zuckerman, Chronicle Staff Writer “Poll finds dark view of economy in California” http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/24/BU3F11V8FI.DTL

Californians have turned overwhelmingly grim about the economy, with an unprecedented proportion saying their situations have worsened, according to the Field Poll. Sixty-three percent reported that their finances have deteriorated in the last year. The Field Poll has asked respondents since 1961 whether they were better or worse off economically, and never before had a majority said worse. "It's the broadest sentiment of pessimism we've ever seen," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. The latest reading, based on a survey of 422 registered voters earlier this month, represents the sharpest drop in sentiment about personal finances the poll has ever recorded. In a survey conducted in December, only 33 percent of those responding said worse when asked about their family economic situation. "It's all around me. I can feel the distress of the people around me," said Michelle Finton, 65, a software engineer from the Sacramento suburb of Rocklin. "Everything is a lot more

expensive. I see the stock market going down. I've seen all the equity in my house gone," Finton said. "I'm not in distress. But there's a sense of depression everywhere, that nothing is going well on all fronts." The surge in pessimism stems from the brutal combination of soaring food and energy prices and plunging stock and housing prices. Add to that slow wage growth and a rising number of people find themselves squeezed, if not pushed over the edge. "People really are worse off," said Kit Yarrow, a consumer psychologist at Golden Gate University in San Francisco. "A lot of people, especially lower-income people, are suffering. This is genuine pain." A series of negative economic events coming in rapid succession intensified the feeling that things are out of control, prompting people to feel even worse, Yarrow said. The sharp drops in the housing and stock markets have taken chunks out of the value of the two biggest assets most households rely on to build wealth. As a result, economic insecurity is spreading up the income ladder, so that even many with good-paying jobs feel worse off. "Nearly everybody in California has come to the realization that the value of their home is something between 10 percent and 30 percent lower than it was a year ago," said Jon Haveman, a principal with the research firm Beacon Economics. Karen Bishop, 49, a bank trust officer from Oakland, has a managerial job with good benefits. But the condo she bought several years ago has plunged in value. She paid about $323,000. An identical unit in her building was just put up for sale at a little less than $200,000. "I now have a lot better job," she said. "On the other hand, I have a condo I'm paying a mortgage on and it's not worth anything like what I paid for it, so in that way I feel worse." Most Californians don't expect their situations to improve in the next year. Forty-eight percent said there will be no change in their finances during the period, while 22 percent expected to be better off and an equal percentage worse off, according to the Field Poll. Fully 86 percent described the current state of California's economy as "bad times," with only 19 percent predicting improvement and 34 percent responding that things will stay the same. Fifty-seven percent said they were not confident inflation could be kept

within reasonable bounds in the near future.

Virtually the only readings not at extreme levels were responses to a question about jobs. Thirty-nine percent said unemployment is a very serious problem in California, below the levels reached during past recessions. How Californians rate the economy 86% say California is in bad times.

63% say they are worse off financially than a year ago. 43% say they expect the economy to get worse in the next year. California is in recession. Tampa Tribune 7/27/08 http://www2.hernandotoday.com/content/2008/jul/27/ha-our-opinion/ When the cash cow of ever-increasing property values stuffed county coffers like the California Gold Rush, top-level county administrators and department mangers bathed in the excess with double-digit pay hikes and out-of-control spending. Well, like the '49ers, the taxpayers' gold has dried up. There ain't no gold in them there sand hills no more. Property values continue to plummet, prices are skyrocketing, folks are out of work and the local and national economy are in recession. People are hurting, and county government must react accordingly to help relieve the burden - just as officials gorged on the excess.

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California economy is growing worse San Diego Tribune 7/26/08 John Marelius, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER “Residents also pessimistic about future”

A record number of Californians, nearly two-thirds, report being worse off financially than they were a year ago, according to a new Field Poll. The poll shows 63 percent of registered voters questioned said they are worse off, while 14 percent said they are better off. The other 23 percent said there has been no change in their financial status. The Field Poll has been polling Californians on their perceived economic well-being for nearly 50 years and has never found more than 50 percent saying they are worse off, even during recessions. Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo noted that many upper-income people are able to ride out recessions. Because so many sectors of the

current economy are troubled, most people are affected by something, DiCamillo said. “I think gasoline prices are a relatively minor nuisance for the wealthy,” DiCamillo said. “But that group is affected by the decline in the stock market and the value of their homes.” Among people making less than $40,000 a year, 72 percent say they are worse off than they were a year ago. In the $40,000-$99,000 income group, 66 percent say they are not as well off. And for people making more than $100,000 a year, 49 percent say they are worse off, compared with 23 percent who say they are better off. Californians are also pessimistic about things getting better any time soon. Asked about the personal financial expectations for the coming year, an equal number, 22 percent, said they expect to be better off as said they expect to be worse off. Forty-eight percent said they expected no change. The poll shows upper-income people to be more confident about economic conditions in the next year than more downscale people. Among people making more than $100,000 a year, 36 percent expect to be better off in a year, while 12 percent expect to be worse off. Among people making less than $40,000 a year, 25 percent expect to be worse off, and 17 percent expect to be better off. Perceptions about the condition of the state economy are also near an all-time low, with 86 percent saying California is in bad times. Only 6 percent believe the state is going through good times. The assessment of the state's economy has been negative most of this decade since 2001, when 69 percent felt the state was in good times and 22 percent didn't. The high degree of negativity about the state's economy has been exceeded only twice – during the severe recession of the early 1990s. Most voters don't expect the state's economy to improve over the next year. Nearly half, 43

percent, said they expect the economy to get worse, compared to 19 percent who expect it to get better and 34 percent who expect no change. Californians are also worried about rising prices and job losses. The majority, 57 percent, said they are not confident that inflation can be held in check in the near future. A substantial majority, 81 percent, said they regard unemployment as a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” problem in California. California economy is in a mild recession now Walters 7/27/08 Dan, journalist, Sacramento bee, Dan Walters: Dark news piles up on California economy, http://www.sacbee.com/walters/story/ 1112047.html

A couple of years ago, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was hailing a booming state economy and implicitly – sometimes explicitly – claiming credit. This is how, in 2006, Schwarzenegger characterized an overhaul of workers' compensation that was saving employers billions of dollars a year: "We have seen businesses coming back again to the state of California, businesses wanting to do business here again. … And what happened was that this money that companies are saving, they are using this money to buy more equipment, to expand their companies, to hire more workers. And what is the result of that? We have created now 577,000 new jobs because of it, and there is a great stimulation of the economy. Because of that, we have created more revenues. When I came in here into this office we had $76 billion of revenues. Now we are up to $94 billion of revenues." Well, those revenues are still about $94 billion, and the state now has an

immense budget deficit because even as Schwarzenegger was patting himself on the back, the real estate industry was showing the first signs of a meltdown – a collapse that has since morphed into a recession of uncertain depths. So is the governor, having claimed credit for the upside two years ago, now shouldering the blame for California's economic woes? Of course not. He's also morphed into a conventional politician who claims credit for anything good and blames someone or something else for anything bad.

What at first appeared to be a mild recession largely confined to housing has metastasized into other sectors and been overlaid by other downers, such as rising food and fuel prices, a drought that's hitting agriculture hard, and hundreds of wildfires.

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California doesn’t have the budget to spend. Daily Breeze 7/23/08 Dan Walters, journalist, Dan Walters: California still has no budget: Is this serious? So we're three weeks into the new fiscal year and California

doesn't have a budget. Should that be

worrisome? Yes and no.

The lack of a budget, per se, is not particularly troublesome. It's rare that the state begins a fiscal year with a budget in place. It's gone without one as long as two months without lasting harm, although it does inconvenience some folks. It's a bit troubling that the state faces a cash crunch in addition to a political stalemate on how to close a projected $15.2 billion deficit. Sometime next month, the state will run out of money to pay its

bills and its employees - payments it could make even without a budget.

Were there a budget, the state could issue "revenue anticipation notes" to borrow money from banks until tax revenues start rolling in. But if there's no budget by then, it probably will issue "revenue anticipation warrants" that carry heavier borrowing costs. There's another time problem looming. If there's a budget agreement that depends on action by voters - such as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's orphan proposal to borrow against future lottery profits - time is running out to place such matters on the November ballot. All in all, however, even though politicians and the media complain about the tardiness of the budget, that's much, much less important in the larger scheme of things than bringing income and outgo into at least rough balance not only for the 2008-09 fiscal year but at least semi-permanently. This annual political stalemate over how to close the chronic deficit

has been going on for more than a half-decade under two governors, and it's gone nowhere. The only new wrinkles this year are that the deficit has roughly doubled, thanks to an economic recession, and Democrats are being more specific about raising taxes by billions of dollars, particularly on those in top income brackets. California economy and its consumer confidence is down. Ventura County Star 7/26/08 Editorial: Californians feel gloomy: Pessimistic on finances http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2008/jul/26/californians-feel-gloomy/

As always in times of financial hardship, lower- and middle-income residents take the brunt — 72 percent of low-income residents and 66 percent of middle-income residents. Yet, even those considered better off are feeling the pinch. Forty-nine percent of Californians with household incomes of more than $100,000 also said they felt financially worse off. Californians also have a pessimistic outlook on the future. A total of 72 percent told pollsters they see no improvement in their finances over the next year; 48 percent said they expect no change in their deteriorating financial conditions; and 22 percent said they expect things to get worse. There's no shortage of reasons for Californians' pessimism. Higher gasoline prices, falling home values, costlier groceries, higher healthcare costs, extra and rising fees charged by local governments — you name it, it costs more. Consumer confidence has been shaken, and consumer confidence is what drives the economy. Spending by American households represents twothirds of the nation's output of goods and services.

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CA econ high now Ca econ high Christian Science Monitor 7/9/08 http://features.csmonitor.com/innovation/2008/07/09/insilicon-valley-an-economic-rebound/ There’s a place in the United States where factories are thriving under global free trade, pay is scaling record highs, and the housing market is sturdy as brick. In Silicon Valley, the American Dream endures. The region has added thousands of jobs and recently overtaken Manhattan for the nation’s highest weekly wages – even as Californian cities just 80 miles east form the glowing core of the real estate meltdown. It’s not that the tech hub is impervious to downturns: Just six years ago, its capital, San Jose, suffered the greatest loss of jobs of any major US city since the Great Depression. But as before, Silicon Valley has reinvented itself and rebounded. The region’s resilience holds lessons for the United States as the country faces stiffer global competition, say experts. Specifically, there’s a future for high-tech manufacturing and exports in the US economy with the help of a weak dollar, strong education, and the embrace of immigration and change. Government can also help with the right incentives to speed up business deals. Ca econ growing Los Angeles Times 6/2/08 http://articles.latimes.com/2008/jun/02/business/fi-wedding2 Forget economic stimulus checks. Same-sex marriages may give California just the financial boost it needs. Wedding planners, bakers and hotels began booking more business almost immediately after the state Supreme Court’s May 15 decision overturning a ban on gay marriage. Citing pent-up demand, one UCLA study projects that same-sex unions could provide a $370-million shot in the arm to the state economy over the next three years. “Being in West Hollywood, we’ve been inundated,” said Tom Rosa, owner of the Cake and Art bakery on Santa Monica Boulevard. “After the ruling, the phone really picked up.” Rosa said couples who had waited for decades to legally marry were splurging on 5-foot tall confections shaped like carousels and cakes featuring handcrafted birds of paradise. Mike Standifer and Marc Hammer were already planning a commitment ceremony for October, but when the court ruling came out, they decided to throw an even bigger bash and get married. They plan on spending about $25,000, which includes renovations on their Hollywood home so they can have the party in their backyard. The new price tag includes rings, their suits and those of their wedding party, and the cost of flying in Standifer’s priest from Tennessee – all things they wouldn’t have done if they were just having a party. “The wedding dynamic in the last two weeks changed everything,” Standifer said. The wedding businesses he’s worked with so far seem thrilled. “I think it’s because the economy’s not so great, but the vendors have been treating us like royalty,” he said. By some estimates, weddings and commitment ceremonies for same-sex couples generate $1 billion a year in revenue.

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Economic decline is slowing. San Francisco Chronicle 7/26/08 Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press, Rays of sunshine peek through economic clouds Stock markets rise, oil and gas prices drop, reports not so bad, http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/26/BUKL11VQM7.DTL After weeks of one negative report after another, the economy finally got some news Friday that wasn't half bad. Wall Street, which suffered a stomach-churning drop Thursday, managed a modest gain. Oil prices hit their lowest point since early June, and gas fell to a seven-week low. Military spending helped boost big-ticket factory orders in June, and new home sales fell less than expected. Still, private economists cautioned that a few better-than-expected data releases did not mean the economy's problems had disappeared. The Commerce Department reported that a second straight double-digit increase in orders for defense capital goods had pushed total orders for big-ticket manufactured products up by 0.8 percent in June, the strongest gain in four months and much better than the 0.4 percent decline that economists had been expecting. In a second report, Commerce said that sales of new homes dropped by 0.6 percent in June, less than half the decline that had been expected. May sales were revised to show more strength than originally thought, although they were still down. New home sales have fallen in seven of the past eight months as the nation endures the steepest slump in housing in a generation. But economists were encouraged that the pace of

the decline has slowed significantly and two regions of the country - the Northeast and the Midwest - actually posted sales gains in June. Sales fell in the South and West. The inventory of unsold new homes also fell to a 10-month supply at the June sales pace - still high, but down from the peak of 11.2 months in March.

Recent decreases in oil prices have given confidence in California’s economy. Christian Science Monitor 7/28/08 Some relief as gas prices fall, Prices below $4 a gallon could help carmakers and back-toschool retailers. http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0728/p01s03-usec.html When the price of gasoline crested over $4 a gallon, it threw a bucket of cold water on the economy: Americans scaled back their driving, parked the SUV, and even cut back their spending at the mall. But last Friday, gasoline prices fell below $4 for the first time since June 5, and they continued to drop during the weekend. As of Sunday, the average price of gasoline was $3.94 a gallon, according to GasPriceWatch.com. Will it help revive the economy? So far the drop, though modest, has been noticeable. In California, for example, prices are off 18.7 cents in the past month, a 4 percent decline. That's probably not enough to send consumers streaming back to the mall immediately. But if Americans continue to see gasoline prices fall, it could be a psychological boost, some economists say. And if consumers perceive the price decrease as more than a shortterm drop, it could help retailers as they gear up for back-to-school sales. It might even help the Detroit automobile companies. "One of the first things the falling gasoline price does is potentially help consumer confidence," says Dennis Jacobe, chief economist at the Gallup Organization in Washington. "Even though prices are still high, if they are going in the right direction, that helps a little bit." The economy may also benefit from some help on the housing front, which has been beset by soaring foreclosures. On Saturday, Congress passed a housing relief bill that could provide up to $300 billion to restructure mortgages and to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, bulwarks in the mortgage business. The housing legislation, which President Bush has indicated he will sign, could help provide some relief for homeowners who qualify for restructured government-guaranteed loans. And it might assuage some concerns on Wall Street, which has been worried about Fannie and Freddie.

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CA econ resilient California economy resilient Ventura County Star 7/26/08 Editorial: Californians feel gloomy: Pessimistic on finances http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2008/jul/26/californians-feel-gloomy/

Congress and state legislatures cannot legislate away the bad times, nor should they. But they can help boost consumer confidence by acting on behalf of the people. In California, for example, that might entail having legislators pass a realistic state budget on time so that hundreds of thousands of workers aren't left in limbo on their job and paycheck status.Yes, the economic times seem exceedingly tough, But Americans, especially Californians, are resilient. They have weathered financial woes before, not without some pain, and have always rebounded. US econ resilient Washington Post 1/31/08 Bush Urges Passage of Tax Rebate; In Calif., He Acknowledges 'Slowdown in the Economy' lexis President Bush teamed up with California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Wednesday afternoon to press Congress to move quickly on his economic stimulus package, telling workers here the Senate should accept the $146 billion accord that passed the House this week. The House has approved a package of tax rebates and business incentives, but the Senate is considering its own plan. "My attitude is, if you're truly interested in dealing with the slowdown in the economy, the Senate ought to accept the House package, pass it, and get it to my desk as soon as possible," Bush said. Schwarzenegger joined the president at Robinson Helicopter Co., the world's biggest helicopter manufacturer. The popular Republican governor said the stimulus package is necessary "to get our economy back on track." Bush acknowledged signs that the U.S. economy is slowing but maintained his bullish long-term perspective, refusing again to cite the possibility of a recession. "There's some uncertainty in the economy, but in the long run you've got to be confident about your economy," Bush said. "Inflation is down, interest rates are low, productivity is high. Our economy is flexible. It is resilient."

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CA already spending / alt energy solves econ California is already planning to spend for alternative energy. California energy actions benefit both the climate and the economy. Wired 6/26/08 http://www.wired.com/science/planetearth/news/2008/06/emissions_plan California's blueprint for slashing greenhouse-gas emissions could transform the world's seventh-largest economy -- and be a model for a nationwide plan in 2009. The state presented its plan Thursday morning to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by about 30 percent by 2020. Based on legislation passed in 2006, the state is proposing a slate of changes including a cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases, a requirement that renewable sources power one-third of the state's grid, and taxes on gas-guzzling cars. The state's approach could become a model for the nation, if climate-change legislation of some sort gets passed by Congress and is signed by the next president in 2009 -- as is widely expected. The state anticipates that implementing the plan will not only attack climate change, but also provide a net benefit to the California economy. "Setting California ahead of the curve on global warming will give our state a competitive advantage," said Mary Nichols, chair of the Air Resources Board. That conclusion flies in the face of conventional wisdom that the costs of combating climate change will be high, perhaps several percent of a country's total economic output. That said, most of the debate over the costs of climate change and mitigation has been until now slightly more sophisticated than back-of-the-napkin calculations. California's Air Resources Board, on the other hand, undertook a detailed, near-term look at the state's infrastructure to decide exactly how to get emissions cuts without economic pain. It was required to do so by the groundbreaking AB32, the "Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006," signed into law in September of that year. If California's numbers hold up to scrutiny, it could be a major boost for the proponents of fighting climate change. "The key thing with the AB32 scoping plan is that

it really helps California create green jobs, green dollars and a clean environment," said Spencer Quong, a Union of Concerned Scientists analyst. Quong also noted that consumers stand to economically benefit. The state estimates that car owners will save about $30 per month if all the plan's car regulations are deemed legal. One intriguing way that California made the numbers look prettier was to include the health benefits of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Cutting down emissions could save over 300 lives and up to $2.4 billion dollars, ARB staffer Edie Chang said. The savings would come mostly from decreasing asthma and lost-work days. CA K to us econ California’s recession spills over into the US econ. Los Angeles Times 6/25/08 Conor L. Chapman, journalist, Chapman sees U.S. in recession; University economists say the state too is suffering as the housing crisis trickles to the job market. lexis As housing prices continue to tumble in most regions, forecasters from Chapman University said Tuesday that the U.S. economy had fallen into a recession that wouldn't ease until next year. Even worse, California's recovery may not start for two years. "At a local level, we are in a recession," said Esmael Adibi, director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange. "For the state economy there is no clear label of a state recession. But we can look at job growth rates, and when they stay negative for two quarters, that's a recession."

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CA K to US econ California is now on the brink of recession. A recession would affect the nation. LA times 6/18/08 THE ECONOMY; UCLA still foresees no recession; But there will be little or no growth in GDP this year or next, Anderson experts say. lexis Under pressure from falling home values, high oil prices and rising unemployment, the economy in California and the nation will perform anemically in the coming months -but there still won't be an actual recession, UCLA forecasters say. "I am holding on to what is now a shaky view: no recession this year," said economist Edward Leamer, director of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, which is being released today. The predictions, however, call for somewhat more pain in the months ahead than previously forecast, with little improvement this year or next. Not good, but not a recession, which is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product. "In a recession, things happen quicker and nastier," said David Shulman, a senior economist at UCLA. Normal growth will not resume until 2010, Shulman said. "The witch's brew of the popping of the housing bubble, a wounded financial system and increasing inflationary pressures coming from rising commodity prices will keep the economy on a sub-prime growth path for the next several quarters," he said. The drag on the economy from the buckling housing industry may become the most severe since the Great Depression, the report said. There will be little or no growth in gross domestic product this quarter, and GDP will probably slip into negative territory in future months before finishing next year with a tepid average improvement of 1.2%.

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The US economy, influenced mostly by California, suffers from economic downturn. Washington Post 7/16/08 Anthony Faiola and Neil Irwin; An Economy Thrown Into Turmoil; U.S. Financial Crisis Increasingly Infecting The Rest of the World, lexis Fresh worries spread through world markets yesterday as a crisis of confidence battered more U.S. financial institutions and the chairman of the Federal Reserve issued a sober assessment of the country's economic woes. It appeared to mark a new phase in the U.S. financial crisis, with fears of a contagion effect that could yet weigh more heavily on the global economy. With world capital markets interconnected as never before -- financial problems at U.S. banks are affecting pension funds in Japan as well as depositors in California -- a mounting sense that America's financial crisis is still far from touching bottom is adding to global troubles, including rising overall inflation and soaring energy prices. In Paris and London, stock markets fell yesterday to their lowest levels since 2005, partly as investors doubted plans unveiled by U.S. regulators this weekend to prop up the ailing governmentsponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In Tokyo, the benchmark stock index fell 2 percent, slipping to levels not seen in 3 1/2 months as the Nikkei newspaper reported that Japan's three largest banks were holding at least $44.2 billion in debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The dollar fell to a new low against the euro, though in

one piece of good news, oil prices fell sharply, a key reason that the U.S. stock market was down only 1.1 percent, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. The gloomy environment reflects a financial crisis that began last summer and now has spread to regional banks as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. U.S. Bancorp missed earnings projections, and a leading analyst issued a dire warning on a mountain of potentially bad debt held by banking giant Wachovia. International news agencies beamed images of panicked Californians jostling to get their savings out of the failed IndyMac Bancorp -- images once associated with developing nations and not the world's economic powerhouse. President Bush yesterday sought to reassure shaky markets and frightened consumers, asserting that the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound and urging Congress to quickly pass legislation to shore up the government-sponsored lenders. He downplayed predictions that a large number of banks may be on the verge of failure and explained at length about the federal insurance system that guarantees deposits up to $100,000. "I understand there is a lot of nervousness," Bush said. "But the economy is growing, productivity is high, trade is up, people are working. It's not as good as we'd like, but to the extent that we find weakness, we'll move." Yet the tipping points of economic crises,

analysts said, are almost always more about psychology than fundamentals, with panic over a bank's insolvency, for instance, potentially becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. "I think the problem now is a general confidence crisis that is complicated by some global contagion that's now spreading," said Brian Bethune, a chief economist with Global Insight of Lexington, Mass.

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A2: Alternative energies revamp econ Alternative energies are not profitable on the long term. On Wall Street 7/1/08 The Answer Is Blowing In the Wind: Analysts are optimistic about alternative energy, but the solution will have to be a regional mix to take advantage of weather pattern, lexis

Indeed, the S&P Global Alternative Energy Index was up 10.3% for the first quarter; the broader S&P 500 was up 6%. Still, while alternative sources of energy may be good for the environment, they do not necessarily make for strong long-term investments. Investors need to keep a firm eye on fundamentals. "I wouldn't have a strong buy or buy on a company just because it's looking at renewable energy," says Christopher Muir, an equity analyst with Standard & Poor's. Muir has a favorable eye toward Sempra, a San Diego-based firm developing a large wind farm along the Mexico-California border that's expected to eventually create 1,000 megawatts of electricity. That's enough to power one million homes. One concern for analysts is price parity of renewable energy sources with electricity. Without competitive pricing, alternative energy companies rely on government subsidies to underwrite their costs; fine for the ramp-up, but not a profitable solution over the long term.

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