Global Warming And Co2 Capture And Storage

Global warming and CO2 capture and storage Leo Meyer Head IPCC WGIII TSU Seminar on CO2 sequestration DEFRA-DTI London, October 13th, 2003

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CONTENT 1. General introduction to global warming 3. Mitigation challenge and the possible role of Carbon Dioxide capture and storage 5. About IPCC, and the IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage

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CO2 last 420,000 years

400

Cape Grim and South Pole Law Dome ice cores Taylor Dome ice core Vostok ice core

300 250 200 150 1000000 100000

10000

1000

100

10

1

years before 2000 AD

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CO 2 ppm

350

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GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS FOR 6 SRES SCENARIO GROUPS (a) A1

40

(b) A2

40

30

A1F1 30

20

20

A2

A1B 10

10 A1T

0 1990

2010

2030

2050

2070

0 1990

2090

(c) B1

40

2010

2030

30

20

20

10

10

2070

2090

(d) B2

40

30

2050

B2

B1 0 1990

2010

2030

2050

2070

2090

0 1990

2010

2030

2050

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2070

2090

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REASONS FOR CONCERN • • • • •

I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems II Risks from Extreme Climate Events III Distribution of Impacts IV Aggregate Impacts V Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Global mean warming o C

Comparing reasons for concern

Year

I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems II Risks from Extreme Climate Events III Distribution of Impacts IV Aggregate Impacts V Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities

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Key Findings TAR (1) • Global and regional changes have been observed in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, earth's surface temperature, precipitation, extreme climatic events, sea level • These have caused changes in biological, physical and socio-economic systems • Most of the observed warming of the past 50 years is attributable to human activities

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Key Findings TAR (2)

•

Future changes in atmospheric composition and climate are inevitable with increases in temperature and some extreme events, and regional increases and decreases in precipitation, leading to an increased risks of floods and droughts

•

There are both beneficial and adverse effects of climate change, but the larger the changes and rate of change in climate, the more the adverse effects predominate with developing countries being the most vulnerable INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Key Findings TAR (3)

•

Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse effects of climate change, but will not prevent all damages

•

Inertia is a widespread characteristic of the interacting climate, ecological and socioeconomic systems which means that the impacts may not be observed for decades to centuries and mal-adaptations may be implemented INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Key Findings TAR (4)

•

Greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century can set in motion large-scale, highimpact, non-linear, and potentially abrupt changes in physical and biological systems over the coming decades to millennia

•

Sustained warming of a few oC over millennia is projected to lead to an increase in sea level of several meters due to loss of Greenland and Antarctic Ice

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Key Findings TAR (5)

•

Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 will require global emissions to decline to only a small fraction of current emissions -- even after stabilization of CO2 concentrations, sea level will continue to rise for millennia

•

Stabilization of carbon dioxide at 450ppm and 1000ppm would result in an equilibrium temperature rise of 0.9 to 2.5oC and 2.9 to 7.5oC above 1990 levels, respectively. Increases in non-CO2 concentrations would increase these estimates

•

The lower the level of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations the greater the benefits in terms of avoided damages INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

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The mitigation challenge • Current CO2 emissions (7 GtC/y) could increase to 20-30 GtC by 2100 • In order to achieve CO2 stabilisation at 450550 ppm, reductions of 50 – 80 % compared to actual emissions will be needed by 2100 (Kyoto = 0.3 GtC/y) • 300 – 1500 GtC cumulative C emissions might need to be avoided this century INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Main mitigation options • • • • • •

Energy efficiency improvement Fuel switch Carbon Dioxide capture and storage Biological Sinks Solar, wind, nuclear, biofuels Non-CO2 options INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Views on mitigation: technologies Emissions (Gt CO2 )

550 ppmv 60

60 50

650 ppmv

Baseline

40

Baseline 50

Sinks CarbonCapture

40

Fuelswitch 30

30

20

20

10

Mitigation scenario

0

Mitigation scenario

10 0

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Source: IMAGE model, RIVM-MNP, 2003 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Solar,wind,nuclear Biofuels Efficiencyimprovement

Carbon dioxide storage capacities Reservoir type Disused oil fields Disused gas fields Deep saline reservoirs Unminable coal measures Deep ocean Total

Global capacity (GtC) 100 400 Emissions to be > 1000 40

avoided: 300-1500 GtC up to 2100

> 1000 > 2500

Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Source: MOREL, French Institute of Petroleum , World Gas Conference 2000

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About IPCC Established by WMO and UNEP 1988: • Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information on climate change, impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation • No research, no monitoring, no recommendations; policy relevant but not policy prescriptive • Publication of reports • Extensive review processes of its reports • Support to UNFCCC INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

About IPCC: organisation W M O /U N E P IP C C I P C C C h a ir IP C C B u re a u W o r k in g g r o u p I S c ie n c e T e c h n ic a l S u p p o r t U n it U K

W o r k in g G r o u p I I I m p a c t a n d A d a p t a t io n T e c h n ic a l S u p p o r t U n it U S A

W o r k in g G r o u p I I I M it ig a t io n T e c h n ic a l S u p p o r t U n it N e t h e r la n d s

T a s k F o rc e o n N a t io n a l G H G in v e n t o r ie s T e c h n ic a l S u p p o r t U n it Japan

Co-chairs WGIII: Ogunlade Davidson (Sierra Leone) & Co-ordination SR(Netherlands) on Bert Metz

CO2 capture and storage

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Special Report on CO2 capture and storage - Why now? • Only 3 pages in Third Assessment Report • Relatively new and unknown GHG mitigation option • Lots of new information available • CO2 capture and storage is or will soon be implemented in many countries, e.g. to meet Kyoto obligations • Inclusion in the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) is too late and too little room for extensive assessment INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Contents of IPCC Special Report

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Conclusions • Human induced climate change is real • Risks are serious • Mitigation effort would need strong acceleration in order substantially reduce the risks • CO2 capture and storage could possibly contribute to a large part of the solution • An IPCC Special Report with a full assessment of CO2 capture and storage will be availabe in the second half of 2005 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Contact On the Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage of IPCC: Heleen de Coninck TSU IPCC WG III E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +31-224-564316

On IPCC Working Group III : Leo Meyer Head TSU WG III E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +31-30-2744090

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