Climate Chabge Carbon

THE CHANGING CLIMATE: SCENARIOS AND POLICIES Prof Jim Skea Research Director Designate UK Energy Research Centre

WHAT ARE THE TARGETS • Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution – Adopt a strategy which puts UK on a path to reducing carbon emissions 60% by about 2050

• PIU Energy Review – Energy efficiency and renewables the most costeffective option – keep nuclear and fossil fuel/carbon capture option open

• Energy White Paper – Accepts 60% challenge – Policy tends to follow PIU

REDUCING CARBON: THE SIZE OF THE CHALLENGE • need to reduce CO2 emissions by 1.8% pa • say economic growth is 2.5% pa, need to decouple CO2 from GDP by over 4% pa • average 1970–2000 is 3.0% leaving 41mtC gap in 2050 • take out the “dash for gas”, 2.1% leaving 83 mtC gap • projections 2000-2010, including Climate Change Programme, 2.8% leaving 48 mtC gap Source: Interdepartmental Analysts Group

AND WHILE YOU’RE ABOUT IT! • maintain security of supply – geopolitical: gas supplies – network security: renewables penetration, investment incentives

• eliminate fuel poverty and maintain competitiveness • ….within a framework of competitive markets – Competition ⇒ risk ⇒ high discount rates ≠ capital intensive technology

CAN IT BE DONE? Efficiency

Renewables

Nuclear or fossil with carbon capture

Scenario 1

Modest, demand unchanged

60-fold increase

Almost 5 times current levels

Scenario 2

Aggressive reductions (36%)

50-fold increase

None

Scenario 3

Aggressive reductions (36%)

25-fold increase

Almost twice current levels

Scenario 4

Very aggressive reductions (47%)

20-fold increase

None

Source: RCEP, 2000

CAN IT BE DONE? • At the technical level, yes • But choices to be made… – – – –

Energy efficiency? Nuclear? Renewables? Which kind? Carbon management for fossil fuels?

• …and social and economic acceptability – – – – –

raising finance re-wiring Britain – and who will pay political will to raise the price of energy social acceptability of new technologies new environmental impacts – biodiversity/biomass

WHAT DOES THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE BRING? • fossil fuels dominate for some time to come • continuing debate about competitiveness impact of measures such as emissions trading • the “low-hanging” fruit of home energy efficiency has been picked. Next round of Energy Efficiency Commitments will be much tougher • consumer electronics and transport hard to tackle • replacing current nuclear stations an issue • pushing renewables into the energy system…

RENEWABLES PROGRESS • Target of 10% electricity from renewables by 2010 (15% by 2015) • Actual level 1.8% in 2002/03 compared to Renewables Obligation target of 3.0% • Wind (onshore/offshore) will deliver most of the 2010 target and will dominate to 2020 • In the long-term other options – marine? Biomass? But renewable innovation review downplays PV.

WHAT ABOUT THE LONGER TERM? Large onshore wind

25 installations

Small onshore wind

250

Large offshore wind

180

PV roofs

7.5m

Wave power

7,500 units

Energy crop installations The hydrogen economy?

3,000 MW

Source: RCEP, 2000

KEY TO FUTURE PROGRESS • Long-term – investment in creating/maintaining technology options – changing expectations about energy consuming behaviour and influencing attitudes to technology

• Short-medium term - measures that “frame” the market – – – –

energy efficiency commitments renewables obligation (or equivalent) Begin to grapple with transport incl. aviation emissions trading and fiscal measures

CHALLENGES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT COMMUNITY • bringing together environmental, social and economic strands • Better social appraisal techniques • Appraising policies, plans and programmes • More monitoring and ex-post evaluation – energy policy is “evidence-resistant” Source: Foresight Programme, 2001

ENERGY SECTOR CHALLENGES • new technologies to assess – biomass, marine etc. • assessment in context of public acceptability issues • assessing aggregate impacts of large-scale investment in new technologies • energy policy is “evidence-resistant” - more monitoring, ex-post evaluation, policy learning