Economic Bulletin (vol. 31 No.11)

Vol. 31 | No. 11

Republic of Korea

Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview

3

1. Global economy

4

2. Private consumption

8

3. Facility investment

12

4. Construction investment

14

5. Exports and imports

16

6. Mining and manufacturing production

18

7. Service sector activity

20

8. Employment

22

9. Financial markets

24

9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4

Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market

10. Balance of payments

28

11. Prices and international commodity prices

30

11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market

34

12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

38

Policy Issues Korea-EU FTA

40

Economic News Briefing

45

Statistical Appendices

49

The Green Book Current Economic Trends

Overview The Korean economy showed better-than-expected performance in the third quarter, growing 2.9 percent from the previous quarter, while the economic indicators such as production, consumption, investment and exports rose noticeably in September. Mining and manufacturing production in September improved greatly, increasing 5.4 percent month-on-month, or 11.0 percent year-on-year, affected by summer vacations in August and a shift of Chuseok holidays falling on October. Service output also gained 2.6 percent month-on-month, or 4.2 percent year-on-year, due to increased working days. Consumer goods sales grew 1.8 percent month-on-month, or 6.7 percent year-on-year in September, backed by a surge in durable goods sales, in particular automobile sales. Facilities investment soared in September, registering a rise of 18.8 percent month-onmonth, or 5.8 percent year-on-year, as both machinery and transportation equipment investments improved considerably. Construction completed turned around, rising 8.4 percent month-on-month, or 6.0 percent year-on-year, thanks to strong performance in the private sector. Exports in October, despite reduced working days caused by Chuseok holidays, remained on a recovery trend, falling 8.3 percent year-on-year, as major exports including semiconductors increased. The total number of workers hired gained 71,000 year-on-year in September, a huge increase from the previous month’s rise of 3,000, thanks to government’s job creating measures, while unemployment dropped from the previous month’s 3.7 percent to 3.4 percent. Consumer prices in October slowed a year-on-year increase from 2.2 percent a month earlier to 2.0 percent, as prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products as well as oil product prices stabilized. October financial markets saw stock prices fall in line with global stock market adjustment, foreign exchange rates rise slightly, and interest rates increase reflecting the real economy. To sum up, although the domestic economy improved markedly amid the global economy gradually picking up, affected by temporary factors such as a shift of Chuseok holidays, uncertainties surrounding sustainable recovery still exist. The Korean government will, considering external factors and other uncertainties in the economy, keep pursuing expansionary fiscal policies and minimize the 2009 budget transferred to 2010 or left unspent, while closely monitoring any signs of economic instability, in particular the overheated real estate market. On the other hand, measures to create jobs, support the working class, and boost consumption and investment will be carried out as planned, along with efforts to further develop the Korean economy. Economic Bulletin

3

1. Global economy The global economic recovery remained on upward track as the third-quarter growth in major countries such as the US and China improved from the previous quarter. On October 29, the IMF revised up Asia’s growth outlook for 2009 and 2010 to 2.8 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, higher than its previous forecasts of 1.2 percent and 4.3 percent in May.

US

The US economy saw the real GDP in the third quarter increase for the first time in five quarters, registering a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.5 percent (annualized, advanced estimates). Construction investment for housing surged 23.4 percent quarter-on-quarter (annualized) as housing demand soared due to the tax credit for first-time home buyers. Personal consumption expenditure increased 3.4 percent quarter-on-quarter (annualized) as automobile sales rose backed by the Cash for Clunkers program. New home sales in September fell 3.6 percent month-on-month, while existing home sales increased 9.4 percent from a month earlier with home prices continuing the upward trend. Job markets remained sluggish in September, as non-farm payrolls declined at a faster pace and unemployment stayed at the 9 percent range, posting 9.8 percent. The Federal Reserve said in October Beige Book that the economy was slowly clawing out of a recession and showed either stabilization or modest improvements in many sectors such as residential real estate and manufacturing. However, the Fed gave a grim assessment of commercial real estate, consumer spending and loan demand. (Percentage change from previous period) 2008

Real GDP

1

- Personal consumption expenditure - Corporate fixed investment - Construction investment for housing Industrial production

2009

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

-5.4

-6.4

-0.7

3.5

-

0.4

-0.7

1.5

-2.7

-0.2

-0.6

0.1

-3.5

-3.1

0.6

-0.9

3.4

-

1.6

1.9

1.4

-6.1

-19.5

-39.2

-9.6

-2.5

-

-22.9

-28.2

-15.8

-15.9

-23.2

-38.2

-23.3

23.4

-

-1.8

0.1

-1.2

-2.3

-3.4

-5.2

-2.7

1.3

0.7

-0.7

-0.5

0.4

-1.4

-6.6

-1.4

-0.3

1.6

0.5

New home sales

-37.4

-14.8

-9.6

-9.8

-15.0

-13.5

9.9

10.5

-3.6

New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)2

-257

-113

-153

-208

-553

-691

-422

-256

-263

3.9

4.2

4.3

5.2

1.5

-0.2

-0.9

-1.6

0.2

Retail sales

Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Monthly average Source: US Department of Commerce

4

November 2009

1-1

US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce

1-2

US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor

1-3

US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor

Economic Bulletin

5

China

Despite a fall in exports, China’s economy posted year-on-year growth of 8.9 percent in the third quarter, as brisk domestic demand including consumption and investment led to an increase in production. Although exports had continued the downward trend since November 2008, the pace of decline considerably slowed in September, and home prices accelerated the pace of growth. Home prices (y-o-y, %) -1.3 (Mar 2009)

-1.1 (Apr)

-0.6 (May)

0.2 (Jun)

1.0 (Jul)

2.0 (Aug)

2.8 (Sep)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008 Real GDP

Annual

Q1

Q2

2009 Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Sep

9.0

10.6

10.1

9.0

6.8

6.1

7.9

8.9

-

-

Fixed asset investment (accumulated)

26.1

25.9

26.8

27.6

26.1

28.6

33.6

33.3

33.0

33.3

Retail sales

21.6

20.6

22.2

23.2

20.6

15.0

15.0

15.4

15.4

15.5

Industrial production

12.9

16.4

15.9

13.0

6.4

5.1

9.1

12.4

12.3

13.9

Exports

17.2

21.4

22.4

22.9

4.1

-19.7

-23.5

-20.7

-23.4

-15.2

Consumer prices

5.9

8.0

7.8

5.3

2.5

-0.6

-1.5

-1.3

-1.2

-0.8

Producer prices

6.9

6.9

8.4

9.7

2.5

-4.6

-7.2

-7.7

-7.9

-7.0

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

Japan

Japan saw a gradual economic recovery continuing in September, as retail sales fell at a slower pace and month-on-month industrial production improved for the seventh consecutive month. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said in the Regional Economic Report released on October 19 that the economy started to show signs of slight improvement in the previous quarter, as public investment increased and exports and production picked up. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009

2008 Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Sep

Real GDP

-0.7

0.9

-0.7

-1.3

-3.4

-3.3

0.6

-

-

-

Industrial and mining production

-3.4

-0.7

-0.8

-1.3

-12.0

-22.2

8.3

7.2

1.6

1.4

Retail sales (y-o-y, %) Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)

0.3

1.8

0.2

0.8

-1.5

-3.9

-0.9

-3.4

-1.8

-1.4

-3.5

5.9

1.8

3.2

-23.1

-46.9

-38.5

-34.4

-36.0

-30.6

1.4

1.0

1.4

2.2

1.0

-0.1

-1.0

-2.2

-2.2

-2.2

Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre

Eurozone

The eurozone economy showed signs of stabilizing, as indicators reflecting the real economy improved, in particular industrial production which increased for four months in a row. (Percentage change from previous period) 2008

2009

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Sep

0.8

0.8

-0.3

-0.3

-1.8

-2.5

-0.2

-

-

-

Industrial production

-1.8

1.8

-2.2

-2.8

-6.2

-7.5

-3.0

-

1.1

-

Retail sales

-0.8

0.1

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-0.3

-

-0.2

-

Exports (y-o-y, %)

3.7

6.8

8.5

5.7

-5.0

-21.3

-24.0

-

-23.0

-

Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)

3.3

3.3

3.6

3.8

2.3

1.0

0.2

-0.4

-0.2

-0.3

Real GDP

Source: Eurostat

6

November 2009

1-4

China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

1-5

Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan

1-6

Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat

Economic Bulletin

7

2. Private consumption Private consumption (advanced estimates of GDP) in the third quarter increased 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, or 0.6 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007

Private consumption

2

(Seasonally adjusted)3 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

20081

Annual

Annual

Q1

5.1

0.9

-

-

20091

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

4.0

2.3

1.4

-3.7

-4.4

-0.8

0.6

1.1

-0.2

0.0

-4.6

0.4

3.6

1.4

3. Percentage change from previous period

Consumer goods sales in September rose 1.8 percent month-on-month, or 6.7 percent yearon-year, thanks to non-durable goods sales as well as durable goods sales, posting an increase for five straight months. On a month-on-month basis, durable and non-durable goods sales led a rise in consumer goods sales, increasing 9.0 percent and 1.3 percent respectively, whereas semi-durable goods sales dropped 6.6 percent. On a year-on-year basis, durable goods sales grew 26.5 percent thanks to a 65.8 percent surge in automobile sales, while sales of semi-durable and non-durable goods were up 2.6 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008

2009

Annual

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Jul

Aug1

Sep1

Consumer goods sales

1.0

2.9

1.4

-4.2

-4.9

1.6

3.5

1.8

1.9

6.7

(Seasonally adjusted)

-

-1.3

-0.1

-3.5

0.4

5.0

1.5

-1.7

-0.4

1.8

1.9

8.7

0.0

-9.9

-13.6

4.0

10.1

0.1

6.0

26.5

- Durable goods

2

3

·Automobiles

-2.0

7.1

-4.9

-19.5

-21.3

18.4

29.7

9.9

19.4

65.8

- Semi-durable goods4

-2.4

-2.1

0.6

-9.9

-0.9

0.3

0.2

-2.2

0.2

2.6

- Non-durable goods

0.7

0.3

1.2

-0.4

-1.4

1.0

2.0

4.9

1.1

0.3

5

1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc. Source: Statistics Korea

Sales at department stores continued to grow year-on-year, rising 8.1 percent, while sales at specialized retailers significantly improved by 8.8 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008

- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers

2

2009

Annual

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

0.5

3.7

0.2

-5.0

1.4

2.8

6.2

3.3

7.1

8.1

2.2

3.1

-0.2

-1.2

-5.0

-2.9

-3.2

-5.3

-2.2

-2.0

-1.7

0.7

-1.0

-8.1

-6.9

2.6

4.6

3.5

1.4

8.8

1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea

8

November 2009

1

Jul

Aug1

Sep1

2-1

Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

2-2

Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

2-3

Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

Economic Bulletin

9

In October, consumer goods sales are expected to maintain its upward streak year-on-year, given the improvements in advanced estimates and consumer sentiment. Domestic credit card spending stayed on the upward trajectory, but decelerated the pace from the previous month’s 14.7 percent to 9.4 percent. Sales at department stores grew 11.4 percent from the previous month, accelerating an increase by 2.8 percent points and posting a rise for eight consecutive months. Sales at large discounters rose 7.4 percent in October, reversing from a four month decline during June to September. Domestic sales of Korean cars jumped 23.8 percent year-on-year, thanks to release of new cars and demand surging before the expiration of the tax break for new car purchase. Gasoline sales were up 16.9 percent year-on-year, due to extra demand during Chuseok holidays and a low base effect. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 8.7 (May 2009)

12.4 (Jun)

7.3 (Jul)

10.9 (Aug)

14.7 (Sep)

9.4 (Oct)

Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 5.4 (May 2009)

3.6 (Jun)

4.0 (Jul)

7.6 (Aug)

8.6 (Sep)

11.4 (Oct)

Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) 1.6 (May 2009)

-1.4 (Jun)

-6.0 (Jul)

-1.5 (Aug)

-6.0 (Sep)

7.4 (Oct)

Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) 15.3 (May 2009)

46.0 (Jun)

10.8 (Jul)

13.0 (Aug)

76.0 (Sep)

23.8 (Oct)

Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 9.7 (May 2009)

11.1 (Jun)

15.8 (Jul)

4.0 (Aug)

0.1 (Sep)

16.9 (Oct)

Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Korea National Oil Corporation Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for October data)

Low inflation, stable financial markets, recovering consumer sentiment as well as improving employment backed by the government’s job creating measures are all expected to have a good effect on consumer spending.

Employment (y-o-y, thousand) -219 (May 2009)

4 (Jun)

-76 (Jul)

3 (Aug)

1.6 (Jul)

2.2 (Aug)

71 (Sep)

Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 2.7 (May 2009)

2.0 (Jun)

2.2 (Sep)

2.0 (Oct)

The won/dollar exchange rate (monthly average) 1,259 (May 2009)

1,261 (Jun)

1,264 (Jul)

1,238 (Aug)

1,219 (Sep)

1,175 (Oct)

1,460 (Jul)

1,579 (Aug)

1,659 (Sep)

1,631 (Oct)

KOSPI (monthly average) 1,401(May 2009)

1,395 (Jun)

Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) 105 (May 2009)

10

November 2009

106 (June)

109 (Jul)

114 (Aug)

114 (Sep)

117 (Oct)

2-4

Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)

2-5

Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)

2-6

Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

11

3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the third quarter posted a quarter-onquarter increase of 8.9 percent, slowing a year-on-year loss at 8.7 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007

2008

20091

1

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

9.3

-2.0

1.5

1.1

4.3

-14.0

-23.5

-15.9

-8.7

-

-

-0.4

0.4

0.2

-14.2

-11.2

10.1

8.9

- Machinery

9.2

-2.7

-1.2

-0.1

6.5

-15.3

-24.0

-19.6

-

- Transportation equipment

9.6

0.4

12.2

5.1

-3.6

-9.9

-21.8

-3.2

-

Facility investment2 (Seasonally adjusted)3

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

3. Percentage change from previous period

Year-on-year facility investment in September rose for the first time since September 2008, posting an increase of 5.8 percent, thanks to improvement in machinery investment such as investments in semi-conductors and liquid crystal display devices, and a rise in transportation equipment investment affected by a spike in automobile sales. Month-onmonth, the index gained 18.8 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007

Facility investment (estimated) (Seasonally adjusted)

2

- Machinery - Transportation equipment

2008

2009

Annual

Annual

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

8.2

-4.3

-13.4

-17.7

-13.4

-

-

-9.3

-11.6

7.5

-5.7

-14.5

-21.9

Jul

Aug1

Sep1

-9.9

-18.8

-15.5

5.8

6.6

4.5

-12.3

4.2

18.8

-19.5

-16.9

-24.4

-20.7

-5.3

1

11.3

1.5

-9.0

0.4

11.3

19.8

2.1

7.2

55.5

20.6

-5.5

-47.3

-33.8

-14.1

6.5

7.3

-15.7

31.9

- Public

-11.4

4.9

-3.5

150.5

30.9

281.3

498.8

-15.7

129.5

- Private

24.5

-6.2

-53.9

-42.9

-18.5

-12.4

-32.9

-15.7

25.5

21.7

18.9

6.3

-28.0

-27.7

-23.8

-26.6

-25.7

-23.8

1.7

-2.2

-15.6

-18.9

-8.5

1.5

-1.9

-1.8

8.1

Domestic machinery orders

Machinery imports Facility investment adjustment pressure3

1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association

Facility investment in October is projected to continue the upward trend, considering the leading indices. Machinery orders in the private sector grew for the first time since July 2008, and facility investment adjustment pressure shifted to a rise for the first time since the global economic crisis. Corporate investment sentiment also continued its climb, with the October BSI projection returning to the base number for the first time since July 2008.

2009

Business survey indices (base=100) Manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea

12

November 2009

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

94

97

95

100

3-1

Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

3-2

Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

3-3

Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)

Economic Bulletin

13

4. Construction investment Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the third quarter rose 2.5 percent year-on-year, but declined 2.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007

Construction investment (Seasonally adjusted)

2

- Civil engineering works

20091

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

1.4

-2.1

-1.9

-0.3

0.2

-5.6

1.6

3.7

2.5

-

-

-2.5

-0.3

0.1

-3.0

5.2

1.7

-2.1

-0.0

-4.3

-1.2

-0.1

-0.1

-14.3

-11.1

-3.5

-

3.8

1.3

-3.2

-0.7

0.7

5.7

24.9

14.3

-

3

- Building construction

2008

1

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea

Construction completed (current value) in September soared 8.4 percent month-on-month, or 6.0 percent year-on-year, as the public sector remained brisk and the private sector improved greatly. By type of works, both building construction and civil engineering works rose 13.0 and 1.8 percent year-on-year, respectively. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007

Construction completed

2008

2009

Annual

Annual

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

6.6

4.7

-2.2

4.5

7.0

Jul

Aug1

Sep1

-1.2

-2.3

-7.9

6.0

1

-

-

-6.2

7.7

2.2

-7.1

-12.5

-5.6

8.4

- Public

8.4

6.5

8.7

24.4

32.1

20.8

17.5

14.2

29.6

- Private

4.6

1.7

-9.1

-5.0

-5.2

-11.8

-11.3

-18.6

-5.9

Construction orders

23.6

-9.0

-6.5

-16.5

-2.0

9.1

2.9

-29.5

58.4

- Public

40.3

9.1

5.0

22.0

186.5

75.6

111.7

12.7

101.1

- Private

16.5

-15.8

-15.3

-38.4

-62.4

-10.7

-31.6

-42.0

61.8

Building permit area

13.3

-20.1

-41.9

-31.6

-32.7

-4.6

-29.1

-7.4

31.4

(Seasonally adjusted)

2

1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Sources: Statistics Korea & Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs

Construction investment in October is projected to stay on its moderately upward trajectory, considering increases in leading indicators such as building construction orders, and recovering investor confidence.

2009

Business survey indices (base=100) Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Construction results

92.2

99.3

87.2

96.1

-

Construction projections

88.4

91.5

96.2

92.8

110.8

14

November 2009

4-1

Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

4-2

Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)

4-3

Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)

Economic Bulletin

15

5. Exports and imports Exports in October dropped 8.3 percent year-on-year to US$34.03 billion. The year-on-year export decline slightly accelerated from the previous month’s 7.8 percent to 8.3 percent due to reduced working days, as Chuseok holidays fell on October this year. Average daily exports in working-day-adjusted-terms improved greatly, from a fall of 13.6 percent to 4.3 percent, showing that the recovery in exports is stable. Semiconductors (up 36.8) and liquid crystal devices (up 38.8%) posted a double digit growth, while petroleum products (down 25.8%) slowed the decline. By regional category, exports to China (up 9.7%) increased for the second straight month, while exports to the ASEAN region (up 1.3%) shifted to a rise. (US$ billion) 2008

2009

Annual

Oct

Jan-Oct

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Sep

Oct

Jan-Oct

422.01

37.11

366.05

74.41

90.84

95.45

28.96

34.51

34.03

294.73

(y-o-y, %)

13.6

7.8

20.9

-25.2

-20.7

-17.0

-20.9

-7.8

-8.3

-19.5

Average daily exports

1.53

1.55

1.60

1.10

1.19

1.33

1.26

1.44

1.48

1.27

435.27

36.10

379.84

71.39

73.70

84.83

27.39

29.80

30.23

260.14

(y-o-y, %)

22.0

10.3

31.4

-32.7

-35.8

-31.0

-32.2

-24.6

-16.3

-31.5

Average daily imports

1.58

1.50

1.66

1.06

1.06

1.34

1.19

1.24

1.31

1.12

Exports

Imports

Source: Korea Customs Service

Imports in October fell 16.3 percent year-on-year to US$30.23 billion. Imports of raw materials declined at a much slower pace, affected by rising oil prices. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) -34.8 (Q1 2009)

-43.1 (Q2)

-39.3 (Q3); -32.2 (Sep)

-18.2 (Oct)

-13.7 (Q3); -11.5 (Sep)

-14.3 (Oct)

Capital goods (y-o-y, %) -29.1 (Q1 2009)

-23.6 (Q2)

Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) -29.5 (Q1 2009)

-24.4 (Q2)

-20.9 (Q3); -9.7 (Sep)

-10.0 (Oct)

The trade balance in October posted a surplus of US$3.79 billion, staying in the black for nine straight months since February 2009. (US$ billion) 2008

Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service

16

November 2009

2009

Annual

Oct

Jan-Oct

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Sep

Oct

Jan-Oct

-13.27

1.01

-13.80

3.03

17.14

10.62

1.57

4.71

3.79

34.58

5-1

Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)

5-2

Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)

5-3

Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)

Economic Bulletin

17

6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production in September rose 5.4 percent month-on-month, or 11 percent year-on-year, affected by the strong performance of major products such as semiconductors and automobiles, and a working day increase due to a shift of Chuseok holidays falling on October from September last year. By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 23.0%), and automobiles (up 32.3%) increased, while audio visual communications equipment (down 0.26%) and petroleum refining (down 0.11%) decreased. Shipments increased year-on-year for the first time since September 2009, rising 8.7 percent, while the level of inventory fell at a slightly slower pace from the previous month’s 14.1 percent to 14.0 percent. By business category, the shipments of automobiles (up 31.5%), semiconductors and parts (up 8.3%), and chemical products (up 12.4%) posted a year-on-year increase. The inventories of semiconductors and parts (down 23.0%), primary metals (down 18.1%), and chemical products (down 18.0%) were down. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector registered 80.2 percent, rising 2.5 percentage points month-on-month and landing in the 80 percent range for the first time since June 2008. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008 Q3

Sep

Q2

Q3

Jul

Aug1

Sep1

-

-1.9

0.7

11.4

7.2

1.9

-1.2

5.4

(y-o-y)

3.0

5.6

6.3

-6.2

4.2

0.7

1.1

11.0

- Manufacturing

3.0

5.6

6.2

-6.6

4.3

0.8

1.0

11.3

Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)

Mining and manufacturing activity2

2009

·Heavy chemical industry ·Light industry Shipment - Domestic demand

4.1

6.8

7.1

-6.2

5.7

2.3

2.3

12.4

-2.2

0.0

2.0

-8.8

-2.1

-6.4

-5.3

5.6

2.4

5.3

6.1

-5.8

2.1

-1.3

-0.9

8.7

-6.6

3.0

-1.9

-0.8

11.9

-0.7

1.7

1.5

- Exports

7.1

10.3

12.4

-4.7

1.0

-0.5

-1.0

4.6

Inventory3

7.3

17.3

17.3

-16.7

-14.0

-14.9

-14.1

-14.0

Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity

77.2

78.3

77.3

73.7

78.9

78.7

77.7

80.2

5.2

5.3

4.9

1.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.2

1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry Source: Statistics Korea

3. End-period

In October, mining and manufacturing production is likely to decelerate slightly, considering reduced working days due to Chuseok holidays and weak exports. Exports (y-o-y, %) -12.4 (Jun 2009)

18

November 2009

-21.8 (Jul)

-20.9 (Aug)

-7.8 (Sep)

-8.3 (Oct)

6-1

Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

6-2

Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

6-3

Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

Economic Bulletin

19

7. Service sector activity Service activity in September increased 2.6 percent from the previous month and 4.2 percent from a year earlier with more working days, as Chuseok holidays fall in October this year instead of September. By business category, healthcare & social welfare services (up 11.7%), real estate & renting services (up 10.1%), and financial & insurance services (up 8.9%) led the year-on-year increase in the service sector. Meanwhile, business facility management & business support services (down 1.2%) and educational services (down 0.4%) declined from a year earlier. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight 100

Service activity index

2008

2009

Annual

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Jul

Aug1

Sep1

3.4

3.2

-0.4

-0.4

1.6

2.1

0.9

1.0

4.2

1

-

-

0.5

-1.9

0.4

2.5

0.7

-0.6

-0.8

2.6

22.0

1.4

3.6

-4.6

-4.0

-2.2

0.2

-1.6

-1.1

3.2

- Transportation services

9.0

4.3

4.3

-3.2

-10.8

-9.5

-4.2

-7.7

-5.2

0.4

- Hotels & restaurants

7.8

0.7

1.7

-3.0

-2.4

-0.3

-2.1

-1.1

-5.5

0.4

(Seasonally adjusted)

2

- Wholesale & retail

- Information & communication services

8.4

3.5

3.4

-0.2

-1.9

0.9

1.4

0.5

0.4

2.8

15.3

9.7

9.6

4.5

6.6

9.8

8.5

6.8

9.7

8.9

- Real estate & renting

6.3

-2.1

-8.4

-7.5

-3.1

1.5

9.4

7.7

10.7

10.1

- Professional, scientific & technical services

4.8

2.0

1.8

0.9

-1.9

3.2

0.1

0.4

-1.8

2.7

- Financial & insurance services

- Business services

2.9

4.6

3.2

0.1

-4.8

-6.6

-1.0

-1.8

-0.2

-1.2

10.8

1.8

-0.5

2.3

3.7

6.9

-2.7

-2.4

-5.9

-0.4

- Healthcare & social welfare services

6.0

6.3

6.1

6.5

8.6

8.1

10.0

8.3

9.7

11.7

- Entertainment, cultural & sports services

2.9

2.2

1.7

4.3

1.5

0.9

-0.4

3.3

-6.9

3.3

- Membership organizations

3.8

0.1

-1.4

-1.0

-3.4

-5.0

-1.7

-2.8

-4.2

2.0

- Sewerage & waste management

0.4

5.8

3.9

4.0

0.5

8.8

5.4

5.3

1.0

9.3

- Educational services

1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: Statistics Korea

Service activity in October is expected to continue with modest gains despite reduced working days due to Chuseok holidays, as preliminary indicators of consumer goods sales such as retailers’ sales and automobile sales remained robust.

20

November 2009

l es

l&

tate

ncia

& re

ranc

e se

ns

& Bus bus iness f ines acil s su ity m ppo ana rt se gem rvic ent es & Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea serv lthcare ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente serv rtainm ices ent , cu ltur al & spo Me rts m othe bersh r pe ip o rson rgan al s izati ervi ons Sew ces , re pair reco erage, & very was & re te m med ana iatio gem n ac ent, tivit mate ies rials

es

atio

rvic

unic

s

omm

rant

tail

insu

&c

stau

tion

& re

ion

& re

ntin g Pro tech fession nica al, s l se cien rvic tifi c es

Rea

Fina

ale

rtat

rma

els

Info

Hot

spo

oles

Tran

Wh

ex

7-3

l ind

7-2

Tota

7-1 Service industry

Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

Wholesale and retail sales

Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

September 2009 service industry by business

Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

Economic Bulletin

21

8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in September climbed by 71,000 from a year earlier, with the government’s continuing efforts to create jobs. Employment in the manufacturing sector stayed on a downward track declining by 118,000, mainly due to sluggish domestic demand and falling exports. Hiring in the construction sector continued to fall with a 75,000 decrease as increased orders of civil engineering works in the public sector were offset by weak construction in the private sector. Employment in the service sector soared by 278,000 driven by the government’s job creation policies. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008

2009

Annual

Sep

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Sep

Employment growth

145

112

209

173

141

54

-146

-134

-1

3

71

- Manufacturing

-52

-63

-18

-34

-52

-103

-163

-151

-143

-138

-118

- Construction

-37

-51

-22

-46

-40

-41

-43

-113

-103

-105

-75

- Services

263

249

307

300

262

187

47

155

269

282

278

- Agriculture, forestry & fishery

-37

-28

-63

-54

-38

8

14

-25

-25

-34

-19

Source: Statistics Korea

By status of workers, non-wage workers including self-employed workers plunged by 395,000 from a year earlier. Meanwhile, wage workers rose by 466,000 led by an increase of 464,000 in regular workers and 136,000 in temporary workers, although the number of daily workers shrank by 134,000. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008

2009 Q3

Aug

Sep

Q4

Q1

Q2

141

54

-146

-134

-1

3

71

208

137

73

175

356

375

466

448

347

316

318

313

386

365

464

-96

-83

-94

-136

-5

125

147

136

Annual

Sep

Q1

Q2

Q3

Employment growth

145

112

209

173

- Wage workers

236

166

312

289

·Regular workers

386

318

435

·Temporary workers

-93

-85

-98

·Daily workers

-57

-68

-25

-63

-56

-85

-108

-133

-155

-137

-134

- Non-wage workers

-92

-54

-102

-115

-66

-83

-220

-309

-357

-373

-395

·Self-employed workers

-79

-56

-79

-67

-76

-95

-197

-286

-276

-276

-324

Source: Statistics Korea

The employment rate stood at 59.2 percent, down 0.6 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points yearon-year to 3.4 percent, while that of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 1.5 percentage points from a year earlier to 7.6 percent. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008

Unemployment rate (%) Employment rate (%)

22

November 2009

2009

Annual

Sep

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Sep

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.7

3.4

59.5

59.8

58.5

60.3

59.9

59.4

57.4

59.3

59.1

58.8

59.2

8-1

Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

8-2

Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

8-3

Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

Economic Bulletin

23

9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in October fell due to an adjustment in the global stock market and concerns that exporters’ profits could deteriorate. The drop in the domestic stock market was due to low investor sentiment, profit-taking after a sudden surge, and worries about the won’s appreciation. Investor sentiment worsened on concerns over a delay in the global economic recovery as US housing and consumption related indicators remained sluggish. Foreign investors continued their net-buying of Korean shares since July in line with expanded investment into emerging markets by foreign investors. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI

Stock price index

KOSDAQ

Sep 2009

Oct 2009

Change1

Sep 2009

Oct 2009

Change1

1,673.1

1,580.7

-92.4 (-5.5%)

505.9

486.5

-19.4 (-3.8%)

872.4

828.2

-44.2 (-5.1%)

79.2

77.9

-1.3 (-1.6%)

Market capitalization Average daily trade value

7.3

5.5

-1.8 (-24.7%)

2.4

1.7

-0.7 (-29.2%)

Foreign stock ownership

32.2

31.4

-0.8 (-2.5%)

6.7

6.9

0.2 (3.0%)

1. Change from the end of the previous year

9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in October advanced 4.4 won from 1,178.1 won at the end of September to wrap up the month at 1,182.5 won. The exchange rate fell to 1,155 won during the month with the dollar remaining weak. It, thereafter, turned to a slight increase as investors’ appetite for safe assets grew amid the global stock market adjustment and the possibility of early exit strategies. The won/yen exchange rate also fell to the upper 1,200 won range with the appreciation of won. (End-period) 2006

2007

2008

Dec

Dec

Dec

2009 Sep

Oct

Change1

Won/Dollar

929.8

936.1

1,259.5

1,178.1

1,182.5

6.5

Won/100Yen

783.4

828.6

1,396.8

1,315.6

1,299.3

7.5

1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.

24

November 2009

9-1

Stock prices

9-2

Foreign exchange rate (month-end)

9-3

Recent foreign exchange rate

Economic Bulletin

25

9.3 Bond market Long-term bond yields continued to rise in October with an improvement in real economic indicators. For short-term bond yields, however, the pace of increase moderated. In particular, the long-term bond yields hit the highest this year after mid October, as improved real economic indicators fueled expectations over an economic recovery. On October 28, yields on Treasury bonds with a 3-year maturity reached 4.62 percent, a record high this year. (End-period)

Call rate (1 day)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec

Aug

Sep

Oct

3.76

4.60

5.02

3.02

1.99

2.00

2.01

Change1 1

CD (91 days)

4.09

4.86

5.82

3.93

2.57

2.75

2.79

4

Treasury bonds (3 yrs)

5.08

4.92

5.74

3.41

4.38

4.39

4.44

5

Corporate bonds (3 yrs)

5.52

5.29

6.77

7.72

5.61

5.53

5.58

5

Treasury bonds (5 yrs)

5.36

5.00

5.78

3.77

4.91

4.81

4.94

13

1. Basis point changes in August 2009 from end December 2008

9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in August expanded 10.0 percent from a year earlier. Excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009, the year-onyear M2 growth stood at 9.5 percent, a similar level to the previous month’s 9.6 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2007 Annual M1+2

2009

2008 Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Q4

Q1

Q2

Jun

Jul

Aug

Aug1

-5.2

-1.8

-12.4

-0.1

2.1

2.7

5.0

10.8

17.6

16.9

18.5

18.5

361.0

M2

11.2

14.3

13.3

15.3

14.7

14.7

13.8

11.5

10.1

9.6

9.7

10.0

1,524.9

Lf3

10.2

11.9

11.6

12.8

12.1

11.8

11.2

8.8

7.3

7.0

7.6

Mid 7 1,939.34

1. Balance at end August 2009, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Balance at end July 2009, trillion won

In September, bank deposits increased further as fund inflows from individual and corporate investors were boosted by higher deposit rates and a perception that the stock market had reached a temporary peak. Asset management company (AMC) deposits declined at a much faster pace affected by redemptions of equity funds as well as less money inflows into MMFs with fund withdrawals by individual and corporate investors. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007

2008

Annual

Sep

Annual

Bank deposits

59.6

6.5

AMC deposits

61.8

3.3

1. Balance at end September 2009, trillion won

26

November 2009

2009 Sep

Jul

Aug

104.3

8.5

-0.6

63.0

-20.4

-2.2

Sep

Sep1

13.5

16.5

1,021.1

-7.8

-18.3

345.9

9-4

Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea

9-5

Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea

9-6

Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.

Economic Bulletin

27

10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account recorded a US$4.20 billion surplus in September. The goods account surplus expanded to US$5.45 billion from US$3.33 billion a month earlier, thanks to robust exports amid the global economic recovery and increased working days. The service account deficit decreased to US$1.63 billion from the previous month’s US$1.79 billion, due to the improved travel account and increased revenue from freight transportation. The income account surplus shrank slightly to US$550 million after posting US$590 million in the previous month, due to a decrease in dividend payments. The current transfer account deficit contracted to US$160 million from the previous month’s US$220 million with increased inflow of overseas remittance. (US$ billion) 2008

2009

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Jul

Aug

Sep Jan-Sep

Current account

-6.41

-5.21

-0.13

-8.58

7.52

8.58

13.17

4.36

1.91

4.20

32.22

- Goods balance

5.99

-1.22

5.72

-3.48

4.97

8.35

17.63

6.13

3.33

5.45

40.88

-16.73

-5.07

-4.27

-5.69

-1.70

-1.88

-4.02

-1.89

-1.79

-1.63

-11.22

- Service balance - Income balance

5.11

1.69

-0.65

1.36

2.71

0.83

0.18

0.48

0.59

0.55

2.63

- Current transfers

-0.77

-0.61

-0.94

-0.77

1.55

1.28

-0.61

-0.36

-0.22

-0.16

-0.07

Source: The Bank of Korea

The capital and financial account in September posted a net inflow of US$7.24 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -0.55 (Q1 2009)

8.89 (Q2)

2.38 (Jul)

5.46 (Aug)

7.24 (Sep)

The direct investment account slightly expanded the net outflow to register US$230 million from the previous month’s deficit of US$110 million due to an increase in overseas investment by locals. The portfolio investment account significantly increased the net outflow to record US$7.92 billion from US$4.06 billion a month earlier as foreign investment in the Korean stock and bond market rose considerably. The financial derivatives account deficit contracted from the previous month’s US$720 million to post US$300 million, as revenue related to overseas financial derivative transactions increased. The other investment account shifted to a net outflow of US$140 million from the previous month’s net inflow of US$2.18 billion as the IMF reduced the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to US$300 million from US$3.4 billion a month earlier. The current account is likely to record a surplus of around US$3.5 billion in October as the trade balance posted a surplus of US$3.79 billion.

28

November 2009

10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)

10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)

10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)

Economic Bulletin

29

11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in October decreased 0.3 percent month-on-month while rising 2.0 percent year-on-year. The overall price index was down 0.3 percent month-on-month as prices for agricultural, livestock and fishery products as well as oil product prices went down. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products declined 1.1 percent from the previous month as the autumn harvest season continued with favorable weather conditions. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in October 2009 (m-o-m, %) Rice (0.0), radish (-3.6), Chinese cabbage (-21.1), grape (15.8), Korean beef (3.7), pork (-4.1), chicken (-1.7), mackerel (-3.8), Alaska pollack (1.6), yellow corvina (0.2)

Prices of oil products decreased 3.1 percent from a month earlier as weak international oil prices from end-September to early-October were reflected and the won’s value appreciated. Prices of oil products in October 2009 (m-o-m, %) Gasoline (-3.7), diesel (-3.3), kerosene (-2.7), LPG for automobiles (-0.1), LPG for kitchen use (-0.1)

Public utility charges were slightly up 0.1 percent month-on-month with higher medical service fees. Personal service charges held steady with stabilized expenses for dining-out, the won’s appreciation and the continuing deflation gap.

Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total Month-on-Month (%) Contribution (%p) Year-on-Year (%) Contribution (%p)

Agricultural, livestock & fishery products

Industrial products

Housing rents

Oil products

Public utility

Personal services

-0.3

-1.1

-0.5

-3.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

-0.26

-0.09

-0.16

-0.18

0.01

0.01

0.00

2.0

5.5

1.1

-10.6

1.1

2.3

2.0

1.98

0.45

0.36

-0.68

0.11

0.37

0.68

Source: The Bank of Korea

Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 2.6 percent year-on-year. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 1.5 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.

Consumer price inflation 2008

2009

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

-0.1

-0.3

0.0

0.1

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.0

-0.1

0.4

0.4

0.1

-0.3

Year-on-Year (%)

4.8

4.5

4.1

3.7

4.1

3.9

3.6

2.7

2.0

1.6

2.2

2.2

2.0

Core consumer prices (y-o-y)

5.2

5.3

5.6

5.2

5.2

4.5

4.2

3.9

3.5

3.2

3.1

2.7

2.6

(m-o-m)

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)

4.8

4.0

3.0

2.8

3.3

3.1

3.0

1.8

0.5

0.4

1.3

1.7

1.5

Month-on-Month (%)

Source: Statistics Korea

30

November 2009

11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)

11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)

11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)

Economic Bulletin

31

11.2. International oil and commodity prices International oil prices in October hit a record high price this year reaching a monthly average of US$70 level, affected by the weak dollar and prospects of global economic recovery. (US$/barrel, period average) 2006

2007

2008

2009

Annual

Annual

Annual

Dec

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Dubai crude

61.6

68.4

94.3

40.5

57.9

69.4

65.0

71.4

67.7

73.2

Brent crude

65.1

72.8

97.5

40.4

57.5

68.6

64.6

72.9

67.5

72.8

WTI crude

66.0

72.3

99.9

41.6

59.1

69.7

64.2

71.1

69.4

75.8

Source: KOREAPDS

Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14)

Domestic prices of oil products went down as weak international oil product prices from endSeptember to early-October were reflected with the time lag and the won’s value appreciated. (Won/liter, period average) 2006

2007

Annual

Annual

Annual

2008 Dec

May

Jun

Jul

2009 Aug

Sep

Oct

Gasoline prices

1,492

1,526

1,692

1,329

1,543

1,607

1,639

1,670

1,681

1,627

Diesel prices

1,228

1,273

1,614

1,303

1,320

1,389

1,428

1,447

1,453

1,409

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

Prices of nickel and zinc soared month-on-month while international prices of grain including corn, wheat and soybean rose due to concerns over a delay in harvests affected by deteriorating weather conditions. Non-ferrous metal prices excluding nickel and zinc increased moderately with expectations of economic recovery amid oversupply concerns. As strikes at Canadian nickel mines extended, nickel prices showed relative strength. Grain prices moved upward due to concerns over a delay in harvests as cold weather continued in the US. In addition, the delay in yield of corn and soybean affected the seedtime of winter wheat, leading the wheat price increase. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in October 2009 (m-o-m, %) Corn (14.4), wheat (7.2), soybean (3.8), bronze (1.6), aluminum (2.6), nickel (6.3), zinc (9.8), lead (1.8), tin (1.6)

Reuters index*

(Period average)

2006

2007

2008

Annual

Annual

Annual

Dec

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

2,019

2,400

2,536

1,767

2,099

2,117

2,082

2,159

2,049

2,197

* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREAPDS

32

November 2009

2009

11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service

11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.

Economic Bulletin

33

12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In October, nationwide apartment sales prices were up 0.4 percent. The pace of increase, however, decelerated as financial regulations have tightened up and the fall moving season came closer to the end. The Seoul metropolitan area, which is under the direct influence of stricter Debt-to-income (DTI) regulations, significantly decelerated the weekly upward trend amid expectations over sales of Bogeumjari Houses, affordable public apartments for low-income households.

Nationwide apartment sales prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2006 2007 2008

2009

Annual Annual Annual

Nationwide

13.8

2.1

Seoul

24.1

Gangnam2

27.6

Gangbuk

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Oct

Oct51 Oct121 Oct191 Oct261

2.3

-0.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3

0.8

0.4

0.09 0.08 0.08 0.09

3.6

3.2

-0.9 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5

1.2

0.3

0.07 0.03 0.04 0.01

0.5

-1.9

-1.1 0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6

1.4

0.3

0.08 0.02 0.03 0.00

19.0

8.3

9.4

-0.7 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4

0.9

0.4

0.05 0.04 0.05 0.01

24.6

4.0

2.9

-1.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4

0.9

0.3

0.06 0.03 0.03 0.00

5 metropolitan cities

2.1 -0.6

1.0

-0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3

0.8

0.6

0.13 0.15 0.17 0.20

Other cities

3.0

2.3

-0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

0.5

0.5

0.10 0.10 0.11 0.15

3

Seoul metropolitan area

1. Weekly trends

0.3

2. Upscale area of southern Seoul

3. Northern Seoul

Source: Kookmin Bank

The rental prices slowed the upward pace as transactions have decreased around Chuseok holidays and the fall moving season approached the end, easing the imbalance between demand and supply.

Nationwide apartment rental prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2006 2007 2008

2009 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct51 Oct121 Oct191 Oct261

Annual Annual Annual

Nationwide

7.6

1.9

0.8

-1.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

1.8 0.9 0.16 0.19 0.25 0.20

Seoul

11.5

2.2

-1.8

-1.7 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0

2.8 1.1 0.13 0.28 0.34 0.24

Gangnam

11.3

0.5

-3.6

-1.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1

2.9 1.1 0.12 0.25 0.32 0.34

Gangbuk3

11.8

4.6

0.5

-1.5 -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8

2.7 1.1 0.14 0.31 0.35 0.11

Seoul metropolitan area

11.7

2.1

-0.4

-1.9 -0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

2.5 1.0 0.17 0.24 0.31 0.17

5 metropolitan cities

3.0

1.1

1.6

-0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

1.2 0.8 0.19 0.18 0.23 0.29

Other cities

4.1

2.2

2.6

-0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2

0.7 0.5 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.16

2

1. Weekly trends

2. Upscale area of southern Seoul

3. Northern Seoul

Source: Kookmin Bank

Apartment sales transactions in September surged 47.4 percent from 61,381 a year earlier to post 90,490. The transactions were up 11.8 percent from the previous month.

Apartment sales transactions 2006

(Monthly average, thousand)

2007

2008

Annual Sep Annual Sep Annual Sep

Nationwide

94

101

Source: Korea Land Corporation

34

November 2009

84

55

74

61

Oct 68

2009 Nov Dec 54

57

Jan

Feb

Mar

49

60

79

Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

76

91

81

90

72

81

12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)

12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)

12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)

Economic Bulletin

35

12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in September rose 0.31 percent, decelerating its growing pace from the previous month’s 0.36 percent. The fluctuation rate for the accumulated period from January to September recorded 0.01 percent, shifting to a rise for the first time this year. Affected by expectations over development projects such as the New Town project in Goyang, land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area continued an upward trend as Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi province saw land prices rising by 0.39 percent, 0.43 percent and 0.43 percent, respectively.

Land prices by region

(Percentage change from previous period) 2007

Annual

Q1

2008

Q2

Q3

2009

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

0.91

1.15

-0.31

1.23

1.46

1.18

-4.08

-1.20

0.35

0.88

0.31

1.40

1.90

-1.00

1.83

2.17

1.59

-6.34

-1.38

0.68

1.30

0.39

0.89

1.05

1.14

-0.26

1.28

1.57

1.28

-4.28

-1.62

0.37

1.33

0.43

1.28

1.12

1.13

1.37

1.36

1.67

2.01

-3.57

-1.39

0.53

1.16

0.43

Nationwide

3.88

0.96

0.79

Seoul

5.88

1.38

1.07

Gyeonggi

4.22

1.07

Incheon

4.86

1.24

Source: Korea Land Corporation

Nationwide land transactions in September expanded 30.8 percent or 53,000 land lots from a year earlier to 226,000 land lots. In terms of gross area, land transactions were up 18.6 percent. Land transactions in all cities and counties increased year-on-year in terms of land lots driven by Busan (up 55.3%), Gyeonggi province (up 52.0%) and Daejeon (up 53.0%).

Land sales transactions

(Monthly average, land lot, thousand)

2007

2008

Annual Annual Jan

2009

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

134 164 207 207 192 215 222 206

Jul Aug Sep

208

208

216

190

269

244

175

191

162

Seoul

33

26

24

24

41

38

18

23

13

13

15

20

24

22

27

26

25

28

Gyeonggi

49

45

44

40

61

55

38

36

31

26

34

41

48

45

49

50

48

56

Incheon

13

13

11

10

18

15

11

10

8

7

7

9

10

9

10

11

10

13

Nationwide

Source: Korea Land Corporation

36

November 2009

226

12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)

12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)

12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)

Economic Bulletin

37

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of the current economic conditions, rose 0.1 points in September from the previous month, staying on an upward track since March. The volume of imports, the mining & manufacturing production index, the domestic shipment index, the manufacturing operation ratio index and the service activity index contributed to the upward track. Components of the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index in September 2009 (m-o-m) volume of imports (2.3%), mining & manufacturing production index (2.0%), domestic shipment index (1.6%), manufacturing operation ratio index (1.5%), service activity index (0.5%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.0%), wholesale & retail sales index (-0.3%), value of construction completed (-4.4%)

The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions, went up 1.0 percentage point month-on-month in September, running on an upward track since January. The composite stock price index, the ratio of job openings to job seekers, the consumer expectations index, and the volume of capital goods imports were up. Components of the leading composite index in September 2009 (m-o-m) Composite stock price index (7.1%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (3.3%p), consumer expectations index (2.9%p), volume of capital goods imports (2.7%), indicator of inventory cycle (0.8%p), liquidity in the financial institutions (0.2%), spreads between long & short term interest rate (0.1%p), value of received construction orders (-1.3%), net terms of trade index (-1.5%), value of machinery orders received (-2.6%)

2009 Jan

Feb

Jun

Jul

Aug1

Sep1

Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)

-1.9

0.0

2.1

1.2

0.9

0.5

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

92.4

92.0

95.4

96.2

96.7

96.8

(m-o-m, p)

-2.2

-0.4

1.6

0.8

0.5

0.1

0.3

1.1

2.6

1.4

1.0

0.7

-4.0

-2.9

5.8

7.8

9.1

10.1

0.1

1.1

3.2

2.1

1.3

1.0

Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) 12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%) (m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary

38

November 2009

13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea

13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea

13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea

Economic Bulletin

39

Policy Issues Korea-EU FTA

The Korea-EU FTA, concluded last July after eight rounds of talks since 2007, was initialed on October 15. The trade package is expected to go into effect in 2010 following ratification by each side. The Korea-EU FTA is meaningful in that it is a trade agreement with the world’s largest economic bloc, and is expected to serve as a bridgehead for future trade deals with other European nations. As of 2008, the EU ranked top in terms of GDP, producing US$ 18.4 trillion, or 30.2 percent of the total global GDP.

I. Summary of the agreement 1. Manufactured goods Customs duties shall be eliminated in five years on the Korean goods and in seven years on the goods from the EU.

Tariff elimination on manufactured goods

(%)

Korea-EU FTA Tariff schedule

Korean commitment No. of items Import value

Korea-US FTA

EU commitment No. of items Import value

Korean commitment No. of items Import value

US commitment No. of items Import value

Immediate removal (A)

90.7

69.4

97.3

76.7

89.9

81.0

87.3

85.5

Removal in 3 years (B)

5.1

22.4

2.1

16.6

6.3

13.2

4.1

6.9

Early removal (A+B)

95.8

91.8

99.4

93.3

96.2

94.3

91.4

92.4

Removal in 5 years

3.7

6.9

0.6

6.7

1.9

1.5

4.0

3.4

Removal in 7 years

0.5

1.3

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1.9

4.2

4.6

4.2

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Removal in 10 years Total

40

November 2009

For motor vehicles, both Korea and the EU will eliminate tariffs on cars in three or five years, depending on engine size. Both sides will scrap tariffs on small cars (1,500cc or smaller) over three years and on large cars (larger than 1,500cc) over five years. Under the Korea-US (KORUS) FTA, Korea’s auto tariff will be eliminated immediately while the US would remove its tariff on small cars (3,000cc or smaller) immediately and on large cars (larger than 3,000cc) over three years.

2. Agricultural products Reflecting the sensitivity of the agricultural products, efforts were made to get as much exceptional treatment as possible. Refrigerated or frozen pork imported from the EU will be subject to customs duties for ten years from the date of the FTA’s entry into force, longer than what is scheduled in the KORUS FTA. Other measures to protect major sensitive products include exemption from tariff concession, application of current tariff rates, introduction of seasonal duties, subheading split and application of special safeguards for agricultural products.

3. Non-tariff measures in the automobiles Both the Korean and EU vehicles are subject to meeting the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN ECE) safety standards, instead of complying with the safety regulations set by each EU member states or Korea. As for the requirement to protect environment, Fleet Average System (FAS)* will be applied to the vehicles from the EU, with an exception to automakers exporting less than 10 thousand vehicles annually, to which interim measures will be applied. *An emission control system which regulates average emission levels of total sold vehicles, instead of controlling the emission level of an individual vehicle. The system is aimed at allowing flexibility for automakers.

Standards on On-Board Diagnostics (OBD)* are agreed: The EU’s new OBD standards to be introduced in 2014 shall be considered as complying with the Korean guideline. *A device that monitors the emission control system in the car. The device sets a warning light on the dashboard when problems with emission control detected.

Economic Bulletin

41

4. Rules of origin The Korea-EU FTA requires less restrictive rules of origin for machinery, electric and electronic goods, and automobiles: The products made of 45 to 50 percent of non originating parts or materials will be classified as originating products. Products manufactured in the Gaesung Industrial Complex will be eligible for preferential tariffs as are products made in Korea; detailed guidelines will be set one year after the agreement’s entry into force.

5. Duty drawback In principle, current duty drawback system will be in place for five years from the FTA’s entry into force. After the period, safeguard measures to limit refund rate shall be introduced when certain conditions in the agreement are fulfilled.

6. Services and investment Markets for professional services such as legal, accounting & tax services, ground transport & postal services and construction will be opened at the similar level to the KORUS FTA. The environmental services market will be opened more widely in the Korea-EU FTA than in the KORUS FTA. Foreign investors will also have wider market access with the Korea-EU trade deal, as the trade deal covers not only investment in service sectors but also non-service sectors including manufacturing and mining. However, there is no investor-state dispute settlement (ISD) provisions in the Korea-EU FTA since competency for investor protection matters rests with individual EU member states.

7. Geographical indications The two sides agreed on the protection of geographical indications (GIs) for agricultural products, wines and spirits as specified in the annex to the agreement. However, currently registered trademarks in relation to protected geographical indications will be guaranteed for further use.

Number of products for geographical indications

(Trillion won)

Agricultural products

Wines

Spirits

Total

Korea

63

0

1

64

EU

60

80

22

162

42

November 2009

II. Expected effects 1. Macroeconomic effects The Korea-EU FTA is expected to positively affect the Korean economy as much as the KORUS FTA: The trade pack with the EU will help the economy grow through expanded exports and increased foreign investment based on market opening, and by advancing the economic system to be more transparent, reliable, open, and sustainable. Expanded exports and investment are projected to contribute to job creation in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Also, consumers will have more choices from a wide variety of products at lower prices.

Tariff removal schedule for major products Items

(Trillion won) Current tariff rates (%)

Tariff schedule (year)

Automobiles

8

3-5

Wines

15

Immediately

Whiskies

20

3

Cosmetics

8

3-5

36-176

10

36

15

Dairy products Cheeses

2. Effects on the manufacturing sector The FTA’s impact on the manufacturing sector is expected to be tremendous, given that the EU market for the sector is bigger than the US’s, and EU’s tariff rates are higher than those of the US. The auto industry is projected to benefit most from the trade deal, as the EU tariff on motor vehicles is as high as 10 percent. The next most beneficiaries will likely be manufactures of electric and electronic goods, textiles, machinery, and petrochemicals, in order of export value.

EU tariff rates vs. US tariff rates

(%) EU duties

US duties

Non-agricultural products (average)

3.8

3.2

Motor vehicles

10

2.5

The imports that would see large increases are, in order of import value, electric and electronic goods, machinery, fine chemicals, automobiles and textiles, with machinery and fine chemicals imported from Germany and France substituting those from Japan and the US.

Economic Bulletin

43

3. Effects on agricultural sector The effect of the Korea-EU FTA on Korea’s agricultural sector is projected to be limited to some livestock products such as pork, dairy products and chicken since EU’s competitiveness in agriculture is relatively low.

Products of expected trade increases

Agricultural products

Marine products

Expected export increase

Expected import increase

Apples, pears, non-alcoholic beverages,

Potato starch, pork, chicken, dairy

coffee husks and skins, soya sauce, etc.

products, kiwis, grapes, tomatoes, etc.

Yellowfin tunas, fish pastes, frozen

Top shells, rock fish, anchovies, bluefin

squids, etc.

tunas, etc.

4. Effects on the service industry Access to the EU’s media market will be easier through the co-production agreement*, which will also help attract investment into jointly producing audio-visual contents. *Under the co-production agreement, co-produced audio-visual contents in compliance with the agreement shall be deemed to be national productions in the territory of both Korea and the EU and shall thus be fully entitled to all the benefits.

Korea’s communications market opening is expected to bring consumers a wide variety of services at lower prices. Holding shares of communications network carriers by foreign investors will be allowed up to 100 percent of the shares; the agreement will go into effect within two years from the FTA’s entry into force if conditions for foreign investment met, with the exception of KT and SKT, since they own the country’s most critical communications grids. Financial market opening is expected to be mutually beneficial, as the opening will boost competitiveness of both markets through increased competition and advanced financial technologies to be imported. Environmental services market opening seems unlikely to much influence the domestic market, as the sector carries little weight in the overall economy.

44

November 2009

Economic News Briefing

GDP grew 2.9% in the third quarter (Advanced) Korea’s real GDP expanded 2.9 percent quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the third quarter with robust manufacturing and capital spending, marking the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2002. From a year earlier, GDP grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter, reversing three straight quarters of year-on-year contraction. On the production side, the manufacturing output increased 8.7 percent compared to the previous quarter led by semiconductors, electronic parts and automobiles, while the service activity expanded 0.6 percent boosted by transportation & storage services and wholesale & retail sales. On the expenditure side, private consumption and facility investment continued to gain with quarter-on-quarter increases of 1.4 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the IMF projection for the Korean economy is 3.6 percent growth next year after contracting 1.0 percent this year, in its Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Asia and the Pacific released on October 29. The upbeat outlook for Korea is in line with the organization’s global economic outlook for the second half of this year announced on October 2 and the organization’s previous REO released in April this year. In addition, the World Bank has raised Korea’s growth outlook in a report assessing economic conditions of major Asian countries. The international financial organization has revised upwards Korea’s economic growth for this year and next year to -0.7 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively. It is the first time for an international organization to forecast the Asia’s fourth largest economy will contract -0 percent level.

Economic Bulletin

45

GDP by production and expenditure*

(Percentage change from previous period) 2008

GDP Agriculture, forestry and fishery Manufacturing

1

20091

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

1.1 (5.5)2

0.4 (4.3)

0.2 (3.1)

-5.1 (-3.4)

0.1 (-4.2)

2.6 (-2.2)

2.9 (0.6)

5.8

0.8

0.6

-0.1

-0.1

-1.7

4.6 (2.9)

1.2

1.7

0.1

-11.9

-3.4

8.9

8.7 (0.6)

-1.4

-2.2

1.1

-4.2

5.9

-0.2

-0.5 (0.6)

Services3

0.8

0.1

0.5

-1.4

0.3

1.1

0.6 (0.8)

Private consumption

1.1

-0.2

0.0

-4.6

0.4

3.6

1.4 (0.6)

Construction

Facility investment

-0.4

0.4

0.2

-14.2

-11.2

10.1

8.9 (-8.7)

Construction investment

-2.5

-0.3

0.1

-3.0

5.2

1.7

-2.1 (2.5)

Goods exports4

-0.7

2.5

-0.9

-12.6

-3.4

14.7

5.1 (1.8)

Goods imports

0.1

3.0

1.2

-15.7

-6.2

7.4

8.4 (-8.1)

-1.7

1.0

-3.3

-2.2

0.1

5.4

0.4 (3.6)

4

GDI

*At 2005 chained prices, seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Figures in parenthesis denote percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms. 3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services and other services are included. 4. FOB basis

The outcomes of President Lee Myung-bak’s state visits to Asian countries President Lee Myung-bak attended the 12th ASEAN-ROK Summit held in Thailand on October 24. President Lee and the leaders of 10 ASEAN countries discussed ways to further enhance the Korea-ASEAN partnership. The Korean president noted that substantial progress has been made in the field of bilateral political, social, economic and cultural cooperation over recent years. The president especially praised several achievements made this year such as the establishment of the Korea-ASEAN Center, the Korea-ASEAN Commemorative Summit in Jeju Island and the signing of the Korea-ASEAN FTA on investment. On the same day, President Lee emphasized the importance of a close coordination between countries as the key to overcome the global financial crisis at the 12th ASEAN+3 (Korea, China, Japan) Summit. The leaders exchanged views on a number of key issues such as the economic crisis, climate change and food & energy security. Meanwhile, President Lee stressed East Asian regional cooperation to solve the problems of climate change, international financial crisis, natural disasters and North Korea’s nuclear programs, at the East Asia Summit (EAS) on October 25. The EAS meetings are scheduled with the ASEAN+3 meetings and the EAS members include all members of ASEAN+3 and additional members from India, New Zealand and Australia.

46

November 2009

On November 15, leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) called for a new growth paradigm and an expanded trade and investment agenda that will strengthen regional economic integration in the region. Attending the APEC meeting held in Singapore, President Lee Myung-bak stressed that Korea, as the host of the G-20 Summit next year, will act as a bridge between the APEC and G-20, reflecting opinions of developing countries and newly emerging economies. The Korean president’s state visit to Singapore marked his 11th and final overseas trip for this year. Overall, President Lee traveled to 16 nations and participated in 38 summits.

KDB divides into Korea Finance Corp. and KDB Financial Group On October 28, the Korea Development Bank (KDB) officially separated into Korea Finance Corporation (KoFC) and KDB Financial Group (KDB FG), paving the way for the organization’s planned privatization in 2011. KoFC will continue to provide financial assistance to local small- and medium-sized companies and nurture industries, a role which the KDB has played for decades. Meanwhile, KDB FG, with KDB, Daewoo Securities, KDB Capital, KDB Asset Management and Korea Infrastructure Asset Management Corporation (KIAMCO) as its subsidiaries, sets the vision to become Korea’s leading global corporate and investment bank. KFC is launched with capital of 3 trillion won and assets of 23.7 trillion won while KDB FG has assets of 1.6 trillion won and capital of 1.1 trillion won via equities and cash equivalents to be transferred from KDB.

Daily FX turnover returns to the pre-Lehman level The intraday and day-on-day volatilities of the won/dollar exchange rate recorded 8.4 won and 6.3 won, respectively, in the third quarter, decreasing significantly from the previous quarters’ 17.1 won and 10.1 won. The volatility continued to fall throughout the quarter, and the intraday and day-on-day figures were 6.7 won and 5.6 won in September, respectively, similar to levels before the Lehman Brothers’ collapse in September 2008. The intraday and day-on-day volatilities were 6.9 won and 4.8 won in August 2008. The day-on-day change of the won/dollar rate averaged 0.51 percent in the third quarter. This was higher than the volatilities of other Asian currencies including the Singapore dollar, but lower than those of Eastern European and Latin American currencies including the Polish zloty and the Brazilian real. It was even lower than those of major advanced countries’ currencies except the euro.

Economic Bulletin

47

Korea becomes full-fledged member of FATF Korea has been accepted as a full member to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) during the FATF Plenary held in Paris from October 14 to 16, after having gained an observer status in August 2006. The FATF is an international organization whose main purpose is to develop and promote policies regarding anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CFT). Korea’s accession to the membership shows proven commitment made by the Korean authorities to ensure that Korea’s anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing system meets the international standards, and to continue to play an active role in the fight against money laundering and financing terrorism. The accession to the FATF will increase transparency in the local financial system and help Korean financial institutions operate overseas businesses more efficiently. They were originally required to submit additional documents before doing overseas businesses since Korea was not a member of the FATF. In particular, as the recent G20 Summit called for efforts to enhance transparency in the financial markets and a stronger role by the FATF, Korea is expected to increase its role in the FATF.

KNOC buys Canadian oil company On October 22, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy announced that the Korea National Oil Corporation agreed to buy Canada’s Harvest Energy Trust for C$4.07 billion (US$3.95 billion). The deal is subject to Canadian government’s regulatory approval, and expected to be finalized by the end of this year. Following the acquisition of Harvest Energy, Korea’s daily production of crude oil will increase from the current 188,000 barrels to 241,000 barrels. Acquiring the Calgary-based company will also increase Korea’s oil self-sufficiency level to 8.1 percent of the nation’s energy demands, up from the current 6.3 percent. The Korean state-run oil company is currently examining three to four foreign energy companies as an M&A target.

Expected effects of the acquisition

48

November 2009

Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates

Economic Bulletin

49

1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008P

Gross fixed capital formation

Final consumption expenditure

Agri., fores. & fisheries

Manufacturing

7.2 2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.2

-2.2 -5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.5

8.7 5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 3.1

8.1 0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 1.6

Construction

Facilities

7.1 4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.7

6.2 8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.1

7.3 -1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -2.0

2002

I II III IV

6.6 7.0 6.8 8.1

2.3 -2.4 -1.1 -5.5

5.1 7.2 9.3 13.1

10.3 9.1 7.7 5.7

7.5 7.9 3.2 9.6

11.4 7.2 -1.5 9.4

2.6 7.7 9.8 9.1

2003

I II III IV

3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9

0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0

5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5

2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4

5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0

8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0

2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2

2004

I II III IV

5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7

8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6

10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2

-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8

2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4

5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5

-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8

2005

I II III IV

2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1

0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1

4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3

2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9

-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9

-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3

3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8

2006

I II III IV

6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6

3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2

9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4

5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1

3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7

1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1

7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7

2007

I II III IV

4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7

1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7

4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2

5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7

7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1

4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4

12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0

2008P

I II III IV

5.5 4.3 3.1 -3.4

7.4 4.4 4.2 6.4

9.1 8.4 5.6 -9.1

3.9 2.6 2.0 -1.9

-0.5 0.6 1.8 -7.3

-1.9 -0.3 0.2 -5.6

1.5 1.1 4.3 -14.0

2009P

I II III

-4.2 -2.2 0.6

1.5 -1.2 2.9

-13.6 -7.3 0.6

-2.0 0.9 1.6

-8.1 -2.7 -1.4

1.6 3.7 2.5

-23.5 -15.9 -8.7

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

50

November 2009

Growth rate by economic activity

Growth rate by expenditure on GDP

Economic Bulletin

51

2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)

Period

2007 2008

Production index

Y-o-Y change (%)

Shipment index

Y-o-Y change (%)

Inventory index

Y-o-Y change (%)

Service production index

Y-o-Y change (%)

115.9 119.4

6.9 3.0

115.3 118.1

7.2 2.4

117.2 125.7

5.6 7.3

112.2 116.0

6.8 3.4

2007

I II III IV

109.6 114.9 112.9 126.2

4.1 6.3 6.1 10.9

109.6 115.2 111.9 124.7

5.2 7.1 5.6 10.5

114.0 114.5 112.7 117.2

5.0 4.1 2.9 5.6

106.7 111.2 112.6 118.1

5.5 6.5 7.4 7.4

2008

I II III IV

121.6 125.1 119.2 111.9

10.9 8.9 5.6 -11.3

119.6 122.8 117.8 112.1

9.1 6.6 5.3 -10.1

123.7 133.1 132.2 125.7

8.5 16.2 17.3 7.3

113.8 116.5 116.2 117.6

6.7 4.8 3.2 -0.4

2009

I II III P

102.7 117.4 124.2

-15.5 -6.2 4.2

102.0 115.7 120.3

-14.7 -5.8 2.1

116.5 110.9 113.7

-5.8 -16.7 -14.0

113.3 118.4 118.6

-0.4 1.6 2.1

2007

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

112.8 100.2 115.7 113.8 115.8 115.1 113.4 113.7 111.6 128.6 127.6 122.5

8.7 -0.2 3.5 6.4 5.8 6.7 13.6 9.0 -3.0 16.1 7.7 9.4

110.3 101.7 116.8 114.6 116.0 114.9 112.6 112.5 110.6 126.3 126.1 121.6

8.3 2.0 5.1 7.5 6.6 6.9 14.3 7.3 -3.5 15.6 7.8 8.6

118.6 115.6 114.0 111.8 114.2 114.5 115.6 115.6 112.7 115.0 114.9 117.2

10.8 8.4 5.0 4.0 3.7 4.1 2.8 5.5 2.9 4.9 4.3 5.6

105.9 102.8 111.4 109.4 112.1 112.1 112.1 112.9 112.8 115.3 115.6 123.4

4.3 6.7 5.5 5.4 6.2 8.1 10.0 7.9 4.5 9.3 6.7 6.2

2008

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

126.0 110.9 127.8 126.1 126.1 123.1 123.1 115.8 118.6 126.2 110.0 99.6

11.7 10.7 10.5 10.8 8.9 7.0 8.6 1.8 6.3 -1.9 -13.8 -18.7

121.7 109.7 127.3 124.5 123.5 120.3 121.5 114.5 117.3 124.0 109.5 102.8

10.3 7.9 9.0 8.6 6.5 4.7 7.9 1.8 6.1 -1.8 -13.2 -15.5

123.9 124.4 123.7 124.8 128.9 133.1 132.4 132.3 132.2 135.1 133.4 125.7

4.5 7.6 8.5 11.6 12.9 16.2 14.5 14.4 17.3 17.5 16.1 7.3

114.2 109.3 118.0 116.3 117.7 115.5 116.8 115.1 116.8 116.9 113.9 121.9

7.8 6.3 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.0 4.2 1.9 3.5 1.4 -1.5 -1.2

93.9 99.8 114.4 115.8 114.7 121.7 124.0 117.1 131.6

-25.5 -10.0 -10.5 -8.2 -9.0 -1.1 0.7 1.1 11.0

93.2 99.5 113.2 114.5 112.8 119.8 119.9 113.5 127.5

-23.4 -9.3 -11.1 -8.0 -8.7 -0.4 -1.3 -0.9 8.7

124.4 118.1 116.5 112.6 111.4 110.9 112.7 113.6 113.7

0.4 -5.1 -5.8 -9.8 -13.6 -16.7 -14.9 -14.1 -14.0

113.0 109.6 117.2 118.5 118.1 118.7 117.9 116.2 121.7

-1.1 0.3 -0.7 1.9 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.0 4.2

2009

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

52

November 2009

3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2

Period

Y-o-Y change (%)

Operation ratio index (2005=100)

Y-o-Y change (%)

Average operation ratio (%)

109.7 115.4

5.4 5.2

100.4 96.8

0.1 -3.6

80.1 77.2

Production capacity index (2005=100)

2007 2008 2007

I II III IV

107.5 108.3 110.2 112.6

4.5 4.5 6.0 6.4

97.2 102.6 96.2 105.5

-2.1 0.7 -1.7 3.4

78.9 79.9 80.1 81.3

2008

I II III IV

114.0 115.3 116.0 116.5

6.0 6.5 5.3 3.5

98.9 102.7 95.1 90.6

1.7 0.1 -1.1 -14.1

80.8 80.4 78.3 69.3

2009

I II IIIP

116.9 117.5 119.3

2.5 1.9 2.8

80.7 94.3 97.5

-18.4 -8.2 2.5

65.8 73.7 78.9

2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.2 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.2 110.8 112.3 112.5 113.0

4.4 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.9 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.5

99.8 88.2 103.6 101.5 103.9 102.5 98.3 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.7

2.6 -7.2 -1.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 7.3 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 0.9

78.5 79.5 78.8 78.8 80.5 80.4 80.6 81.1 78.6 81.9 81.0 80.9

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

113.8 113.8 114.3 114.7 115.5 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.8

6.2 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.4

102.9 89.2 104.6 104.2 103.0 100.8 99.4 91.9 94.1 103.8 89.1 78.9

3.1 1.1 1.0 2.7 -0.9 -1.7 1.1 -4.9 0.3 -5.1 -17.0 -20.9

81.3 80.2 80.9 81.0 80.0 80.2 79.2 78.4 77.3 77.3 68.4 62.3

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P

116.8 116.9 117.1 117.2 117.2 118.2 118.8 119.2 119.9

2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.5 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.2

72.9 78.8 90.4 93.1 92.2 97.5 98.4 90.9 103.3

-29.2 -11.7 -13.6 -10.7 -10.5 -3.3 -1.0 -1.1 9.8

61.4 66.9 69.2 71.5 72.9 76.6 78.7 77.7 80.2

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Economic Bulletin

53

4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)

Period

2007 2008

Consumer goods sales index

Y-o-Y change (%)

Durable goods

Y-o-Y change (%)

Semi-durable goods

Y-o-Y change (%)

Non-durable goods

Y-o-Y change (%)

109.3 110.4

5.1 1.0

124.7 127.1

9.6 1.9

108.1 105.5

3.9 -2.4

108.5 109.3

5.2 0.7

2007

I II III IV

106.6 108.3 107.1 115.1

5.2 4.3 7.2 3.6

119.6 124.6 126.0 128.6

16.6 12.5 10.2 0.8

99.9 110.1 94.1 128.5

5.4 1.5 3.6 5.4

106.6 107.6 110.5 109.4

4.3 3.5 8.4 5.0

2008

I Il III IV

111.3 111.4 108.6 110.3

4.4 2.9 1.4 -4.2

131.0 135.5 126.0 115.9

9.5 8.7 0.0 -9.9

103.7 107.8 94.7 115.8

3.8 -2.1 0.6 -9.9

108.6 107.9 111.8 109.0

1.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4

2009

I II IIIP

105.9 113.2 112.4

-4.9 1.6 3.5

113.2 140.9 138.7

-13.6 4.0 10.1

102.8 108.1 94.9

-0.9 0.3 0.2

107.1 109.0 114.0

-1.4 1.0 2.0

2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

106.2 103.6 110.1 106.6 111.3 107.0 105.0 103.6 112.6 113.4 113.9 118.1

0.4 10.3 5.6 3.8 5.6 3.6 9.1 5.8 6.6 6.8 3.9 0.5

118.7 111.2 128.8 120.5 126.5 126.8 130.5 127.0 120.5 124.8 129.1 131.8

22.0 11.5 16.2 13.9 14.3 9.4 20.7 11.4 -0.3 11.7 4.0 -10.3

98.0 91.5 110.2 111.5 116.2 102.5 94.4 80.0 107.8 123.9 130.0 131.7

4.6 5.7 5.8 -0.1 1.8 2.7 3.2 2.8 4.6 8.2 4.3 3.9

104.4 107.4 108.1 105.0 110.3 107.4 105.3 109.6 116.7 109.3 106.6 112.2

-4.9 16.0 3.7 3.3 5.0 1.9 8.7 5.7 10.9 4.1 5.4 5.3

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

111.7 107.2 115.1 113.0 114.8 106.3 109.3 105.9 110.5 109.5 108.6 112.8

5.2 3.5 4.5 6.0 3.1 -0.7 4.1 2.2 -1.9 -3.4 -4.7 -4.5

129.5 118.7 144.8 140.6 137.6 128.2 141.1 121.5 115.4 124.4 109.0 114.4

9.1 6.7 12.4 16.7 8.8 1.1 8.1 -4.3 -4.2 -0.3 -15.6 -13.2

104.5 97.3 109.2 109.2 112.5 101.8 98.0 87.1 99.1 112.5 121.2 113.8

6.6 6.3 -0.9 -2.1 -3.2 -0.7 3.8 8.9 -8.1 -9.2 -6.8 -13.6

108.1 107.9 109.8 108.1 111.7 103.9 105.7 111.4 118.2 105.8 107.0 114.3

3.5 0.5 1.6 3.0 1.3 -3.3 0.4 1.6 1.3 -3.2 0.4 1.9

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P

108.0 100.7 109.1 108.6 116.6 114.3 111.3 107.9 117.9

-3.3 -6.1 -5.2 -3.9 1.6 7.5 1.8 1.9 6.7

102.5 114.3 122.9 123.7 142.8 156.3 141.3 128.8 146.0

-20.8 -3.7 -15.1 -12.0 3.8 21.9 0.1 6.0 26.5

103.2 96.8 108.4 110.0 113.5 100.7 95.8 87.3 101.7

-1.2 -0.5 -0.7 0.7 0.9 -1.1 -2.2 0.2 2.6

113.6 98.8 108.8 107.0 112.5 107.5 110.9 112.6 118.5

5.1 -8.4 -0.9 -1.0 0.7 3.5 4.9 1.1 0.3

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

54

November 2009

5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6

Period

2007 2008

Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)

Durable goods

Y-o-Y change (%)

Non-durable goods

Y-o-Y change (%)

Consumer sentiment index

113.0 114.6

6.0 1.4

124.5 126.6

12.8 1.7

108.4 109.8

3.2 1.3

-

2007

I II III IV

111.1 111.0 111.3 118.7

8.4 7.8 2.4 5.9

119.8 122.5 122.9 132.8

17.6 15.0 9.3 9.9

107.6 106.4 106.7 113.0

4.8 4.7 -0.5 4.1

-

2008

I II III IV

117.3 115.7 113.5 111.8

5.6 4.2 2.0 -5.8

132.5 136.4 123.0 114.5

10.6 11.3 0.1 -13.8

111.3 107.5 109.7 110.7

3.4 1.0 2.8 -2.0

-

2009

I II IIIP

105.9 113.1 118.2

-9.7 -2.2 4.1

112.8 137.9 137.6

-14.9 1.1 11.9

103.2 103.2 110.4

-7.3 -4.0 0.6

-

2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

114.9 104.3 114.1 111.6 113.0 108.5 109.7 112.9 111.3 121.6 118.0 116.4

11.1 8.0 6.2 10.1 8.8 4.7 10.0 6.0 -7.1 11.8 3.1 2.9

118.0 113.7 127.8 119.9 125.3 122.4 124.3 125.0 119.5 136.4 131.8 130.2

21.9 14.8 16.2 19.5 18.2 8.0 23.6 13.9 -5.8 16.9 6.7 6.5

113.6 100.5 108.6 108.3 108.0 102.9 103.9 108.1 108.0 115.7 112.4 110.9

7.2 5.0 2.2 6.3 4.8 3.2 4.5 2.8 -7.6 9.6 1.4 1.3

-

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

125.2 106.4 120.3 119.8 115.8 111.6 117.6 111.3 111.5 119.5 107.0 108.8

9.0 2.0 5.4 7.3 2.5 2.9 7.2 -1.4 0.2 -1.7 -9.3 -6.5

131.5 122.4 143.5 144.0 136.9 128.2 134.2 118.8 116.0 127.8 111.0 104.6

11.4 7.7 12.3 20.1 9.3 4.7 8.0 -5.0 -2.9 -6.3 -15.8 -19.7

122.7 100.0 111.1 110.1 107.4 105.0 111.0 108.3 109.7 116.2 105.5 110.5

8.0 -0.5 2.3 1.7 -0.6 2.0 6.8 0.2 1.6 0.4 -6.1 -0.4

84 96 96 88 84 81

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

105.7 102.3 109.8 110.5 111.5 117.4 117.6 109.9P 127.0P

-15.6 -3.9 -8.7 -7.8 -3.7 5.2 0.0 -1.3P 13.9P

99.0 115.2 124.3 119.0 138.6 156.0 143.7 124.7P 144.5P

-24.7 -5.9 -13.4 -17.4 1.2 21.7 7.1 5.0P 24.6P

108.4 97.2 104.0 107.1 100.6 102.0 107.1 104.0P 120.0P

-11.7 -2.8 -6.4 -2.7 -6.3 -2.9 -3.5 -4.0P 9.4P

84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

55

6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period

2007 2008

Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)

Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)

Total

Public

Private

27,279 23,798

2,199 2,309

25,080 21,488

15,635 12,809

118.1 113.0

114.5 114.5

Manufacturing

2008

I ll III IV

7,863 6,088 5,474 4,372

371 535 354 1,049

7,492 5,552 5,121 3,324

4,936 3,140 2,947 1,786

112.8 121.2 113.7 104.3

111.7 120.6 113.9 111.9

2009

I ll IIIP

5,205 5,227 5,833

931 701 1,348

4,274 4,527 4,484

2,083 2,330 2,456

92.8 104.9 102.5

98.1 111.2 106.3

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3,110 2,339 2,414 2,043 1,863 2,182 2,372 1,688 1,414 1,711 1,259 1,402

148 68 155 95 89 352 179 87 88 399 207 444

3,661 2,271 2,259 1,947 1,775 1,830 2,193 1,602 1,326 1,312 1,053 959

2,032 1,571 1,332 1,137 913 1,090 1,239 965 743 754 555 478

107.8 104.2 126.4 122.6 122.5 118.4 118.9 113.3 108.9 105.8 103.6 103.5

106.3 102.9 125.9 119.6 122.1 120.0 119.6 108.3 113.8 112.5 108.2 115.1

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P

1,636 1,727 1,842 1,534 1,466 2,228 2,544 1,423 1,865

232 519 181 93 98 510 1,074 73 201

741 562 780 690 700 940 795 691 970

84.7 92.4 101.3 99.4 102.7 112.6 96.5 95.7 115.2

84.3 97.5 112.5 109.5 102.9 121.1 106.4 97.1 115.4

2007 2008

20.6 -12.8

-11.4 5.0

29.9 -18.1

8.2 -4.3

3.3 0.0

1,404 1,209 1,661 1,441 1,368 1,718 1,470 1,350 1,663 Y-o-Y change (%) 24.5 -14.3

2008

I ll III IV

22.7 -0.5 -15.2 -47.3

9.7 84.7 -26.9 -3.5

23.5 -4.7 -14.3 -53.9

44.6 -7.4 -23.7 -64.0

-3.8 -2.7 3.0 -13.4

1.3 0.6 6.5 -7.4

2009

I ll IIIP

-33.8 -14.1 6.5

150.5 30.9 281.3

-42.9 -18.5 -12.4

-57.8 -25.8 -16.7

-17.7 -13.4 -9.9

-12.2 -7.8 -6.7

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

51.2 2.6 16.7 5.0 -6.4 0.0 17.0 -9.0 -45.0 -46.4 -52.6 -42.8

67.3 -54.7 55.3 3.2 -2.4 229.6 5.3 -32.2 -52.8 349.0 -5 -43.2

50.5 6.6 14.7 5.1 -6.6 -11.8 18.1 -7.3 -44.4 -57.7 -56.8 -42.7

78.7 26 29.5 5.9 -13.6 -13.7 12.0 -1.4 -58.2 -67.5 -66.9 -50.8

-2.2 -8.0 -1.5 -4.2 -1.1 -2.7 7.0 -0.9 2.9 -6.2 -14.9 -18.4

1.8 0.2 1.6 4.4 -0.8 -1.7 7.1 2.6 10.0 -1.0 -10.1 -10.4

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P

-47.4 -26.2 -23.7 -24.9 -21.3 2.1 7.3 -15.7 31.9

56.4 660.1 16.7 -2.9 10.5 45.1 498.8 -15.7 129.5

-52.6 -46.8 -26.5 26 22.9 -6.2 -32.9 -15.7 25.5

-63.6 -64.2 -41.4 -39.3 -23.4 -13.8 -35.9 -28.4 30.6

-21.4 -11.3 -19.9 -18.9 -16.2 -4.9 -18.8 -15.5 5.8

-20.7 -5.2 -10.6 -8.4 -15.7 1.0 -11.0 -10.3 1.4

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

56

November 2009

7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)

Period

Type of order

Private

Public

Private

25,098 26,728

54,559 55,509

112,502 102,321

28,695 31,320

77,554 65,294

Public

82,939 86,806

2007 2008

Type of order

Domestic construction orders received (total)

Value of construction completed (total)

2008

I ll III IV

18,283 22,158 22,317 24,047

5,279 6,568 6,503 8,383

12,142 14,367 14,712 14,288

21,048 25,995 17,061 38,217

7,398 6,056 4,691 13,175

13,077 19,171 10,795 22,252

2009

I ll IIIP

19,115 23,716 22,050

6,562 8,678 7,854

11,536 13,623 12,975

17,567 25,485 18,620

9,024 17,350 8,237

8,055 7,201 9,640

2008

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

6,074 5,473 6,736 7,026 7,321 7,811 7,168 7,312 7,837 7,741 7,779 8,528

1,716 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,376 2,025 2,139 2,339 2,498 2,572 3,312

4,072 3,698 4,372 4,636 4,731 5,001 4,789 4,822 5,101 4,819 4,743 4,726

6,275 6,152 8,621 7,880 8,578 9,537 5,372 6,169 5,519 8,187 8,151 21,879

1,907 2,048 3,442 1,743 2,499 1,814 1,392 1,520 1,779 2,451 3,088 7,636

4,166 3,887 5,024 5,933 5,884 7,353 3,452 4,432 2,911 4,827 4,722 12,703

6,048 6,129 6,937 7,451 7,271 8,995 7,005 6,734 8,311

2,149 2,036 2,377 2,643 2,611 3,423 2,380 2,443 3,031

5,333 4,880 7,354 7,249 6,988 11,247 5,527 4,352 8,741

2,552 2,695 3,778 5,610 4,295 7,445 2,947 1,713 3,576

2,514 2,079 3,462 1,260 2,573 3,369 2,362 2,569 4,709

6.6 4.7

8.4 6.5

23.6 -9.0

40.3 9.1

16.5 -15.8

2009

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P

2007 2008

3,608 3,782 4,147 4,415 4,232 4,977 4,249 3,923 4,802 Y-o-Y change (%) 4.6 1.7

2008

I ll III IV

5.6 6.1 10.6 -2.2

6.8 3.5 6.6 8.7

3.0 4.6 10.5 -9.1

-3.7 -6.1 -22.7 -6.5

17.4 14.6 2.9 5.0

-14.1 -4.7 -32.3 -15.3

2009

I ll IIIP

4.5 7.0 -1.2

24.4 32.1 20.8

-5.0 -5.2 -11.8

-16.5 -2.0 9.1

22.0 186.5 75.6

-38.4 -62.4 -10.7

2008

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

10.5 3.1 3.6 4.2 7.5 6.6 8.7 8.3 14.8 5.1 -1.3 -8.6

16.5 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 3.1 3.2 9.5 6.9 20.4 5.7 3.4

5.6 2.6 1.0 2.6 5.9 5.3 9.2 5.9 16.7 -3.3 -7.1 -16.2

-9.3 -7.0 3.6 -0.5 16.4 -23.0 -13.2 -8.1 -39.8 -23.7 -39.3 30.7

3.6 2.1 40.1 -5.6 50.7 2.0 -9.2 9.3 8.8 -25.8 -16.6 37.8

-15.0 -14.1 -13.4 3.4 16.0 -21.0 -8.4 -10.7 -59.6 -32.1 -46.7 23.4

-0.4 12.0 3.0 6.0 -0.7 15.2 -2.3 -7.9 6.0

25.2 34.0 16.5 34.3 17.4 44.1 17.5 14.2 29.6

-11.4 2.3 -5.1 -4.8 -10.5 -0.5 -11.3 -18.6 -5.9

-15.0 -20.7 -14.7 -8.0 -18.5 17.9 2.9 -29.5 58.4

33.8 31.6 9.7 221.8 71.9 310.3 111.7 12.7 101.1

-39.7 -46.5 -31.1 -78.8 -56.3 -54.2 -31.6 -42.0 61.8

2009

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Economic Bulletin

57

8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3

Y-o-Y change (%)

Coincident index (2005=100)

Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)

BSI (results)

BSI (prospects)

104.2 104.3 104.2 104.3 104.6 105.0 105.2 105.6 106.3 107.2 108.0 108.6

6.9 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.3

104.0 104.1 104.5 104.6 105.2 105.5 105.2 105.6 106.4 108.3 109.1 109.4

100.4 100.1 100.1 99.8 99.9 99.8 99.1 99.1 99.4 100.7 101.1 101.0

95.4 90.5 111.5 99.8 94.1 94.2 79.1 85.9 99.4 99.4 103.7 100.4

102.6 102.4 118.9 112.7 110.7 98.6 94.2 93.4 107.7 103.5 104.3 101.4

2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

109.1 109.9 110.3 111.0 111.3 112.4 113.2 114.1 114.7 115.6 116.4 116.8

5.4 5.8 5.7 6.0 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.4

109.4 109.8 110.2 110.7 111.2 112.1 113.0 113.7 113.8 114.4 115.0 116.0

100.6 100.6 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.9 101.4 101.6 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.9

85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9

96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

116.5 115.7 115.1 115.0 115.0 114.6 113.8 113.5 113.4 112.7 111.3 110.4

6.5 5.0 3.9 3.2 2.5 1.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.8 -3.2 -4.2

116.8 116.9 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.3 117.6 117.7 117.9 117.6 115.9 113.0

102.2 101.9 101.7 101.2 101.0 100.6 100.4 100.1 99.8 99.2 97.3 94.6

95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4

103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

110.6 111.8 113.0 115.0 117.4 120.5 122.2P 123.4P 124.3P -

-4.1 -3.0 -2.0 0.1 2.1 2.6 1.4P 1.0P 0.7P -

110.9 110.9 111.9 113.6 114.5 116.9 118.3P 119.4P 120.0P -

58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 -

52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0

Period

Leading index (2005=100)

2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries

58

November 2009

92.4 92.0 92.5 93.5 93.8 95.4 96.2P 96.7P 96.8P -

9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)

Period

2007 2008P

Current balance

Goods trade balance

Exports

5,876.0 -6,406.4

28,168.0 5,993.9

Imports

Services trade balance

Income trade balance

Current transfers

371,489.1 422,007.3

356,845.7 435,274.7

-19,767.6 -16,733.6

1,002.7 5,106.5

-3,527.1 -773.2

2007

I II III IV

-1,013.3 -1,303.6 4,344.1 3,848.8

5,721.8 5,811.9 8,881.9 7,752.4

84,703.5 92,984.5 90,529.1 103,272.0

82,261.7 87,961.9 86,058.8 100,563.3

-5,391.3 -4,415.9 -5,256.6 -4,703.8

-618.1 -1,662.4 1,795.9 1,487.3

-725.7 -1,037.2 -1,077.1 -687.1

2008P

I II III IV

-5,212.6 -134.4 -8,579.9 7,520.5

-1,219.8 5,722.7 -3,475.5 4,966.5

99,444.5 114,492.0 115,000.1 93,070.6

106,052.9 114,792.8 122,901.0 91,528.0

-5,067.2 -4,272.7 -5,691.7 -1,702.0

1,688.1 -645.6 1,356.7 2,707.3

-613.7 -938.8 -769.4 1,548.7

2009P

I II III

8,576.7 13,173.8 10,472.5

8,349.6 17,625.5 14,908.6

74,412.0 90,837.7 95,451.3

71,384.9 73,700.2 84,827.5

-1,883.3 -4,021.6 -5,319.5

832.4 180.8 1,617.1

1,278.0 -610.9 -733.7

2007

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

439.4 430.4 -1,883.1 -2,558.6 193.8 1,061.2 1,773.7 589.1 1,981.3 3,010.5 1,674.4 -836.1

1,505.6 2,140.0 2,076.2 1,233.1 1,476.9 3,101.9 3,250.9 2,386.2 3,244.8 4,361.0 2,723.8 667.6

28,092.6 26,225.1 30,385.8 29,944.5 31,039.9 32,000.1 30,207.4 30,998.1 29,323.5 34,433.8 35,807.9 33,030.3

27,560.1 25,406.2 29,295.5 29,596.9 29,856.9 28,508.1 29,223.2 29,642.1 27,193.6 32,741.2 33,926.1 33,895.9

-1,409.6 -2,356.4 -1,625.3 -1,371.3 -1,396.5 -1,648.1 -1,675.3 -2,050.6 -1,530.7 -1,527.0 -1,410.8 -1,766.0

610.1 867.2 -2,095.4 -2,203.8 504.0 37.4 557.1 610.7 628.1 454.1 474.8 558.4

-266.7 -220.4 -238.6 -216.6 -390.6 -430.0 -359.0 -357.2 -360.9 -277.6 -113.4 -296.1

2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-2,751.3 -2,350.7 -110.6 -1,581.3 -377.5 1,824.4 -2,534.0 -4,696.3 -1,349.6 4,753.0 1,906.7 860.8

-1,095.2 -599.1 474.5 1,632.3 612.5 3,477.9 217.6 -2,803.4 -889.7 2,625.7 844.8 1,496.0

32,274.6 31,178.2 35,991.8 37,850.2 39,383.2 37,258.6 40,961.2 36,610.6 37,428.3 37,111.1 28,841.6 27,117.9

36,318.0 32,624.3 37,110.6 38,260.4 38,704.5 37,827.9 42,952.5 40,420.4 39,528.1 36,098.8 28,853.6 26,575.6

-2,138.1 -2,249.6 -679.5 -979.0 -1,167.4 -2,126.3 -2,456.0 -2,000.0 -1,235.7 -54.8 -130.1 -1,517.1

768.0 700.7 219.4 -1,932.0 459.2 827.2 239.6 324.8 792.3 1,411.2 720.2 575.9

-286.0 -202.7 -125.0 -302.6 -281.8 -354.4 -535.2 -217.7 -16.5 770.9 471.8 306.0

2009P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-1,635.8 3,563.7 6,648.8 4,247.4 3,495.8 5,430.6 4,358.7 1,912.2 4,201.6

-1,736.5 3,106.9 6,979.2 6,131.8 4,882.0 6,611.7 6,126.4 3,332.0 5,450.2

21,131.1 25,396.8 27,885.5 30,324.8 27,954.8 32,558.2 31,982.7 28,961.8 34,506.8

24,919.8 22,575.4 23,889.7 24,789.1 23,327.1 25,584.1 27,642.9 27,389.2 29,795.4

-708.6 -529.0 -645.7 -1,109.3 -1,466.9 -1,445.4 -1,894.1 -1,791.3 -1,634.1

563.5 484.6 -215.7 -855.5 358.3 678.0 481.6 587.4 548.1

245.8 501.2 531.0 80.4 -277.6 -413.7 -355.2 -215.9 -162.6

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service

Economic Bulletin

59

10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets

Period

Capital & financial account

Direct investment

Portfolio investment

Financial derivative

2007 2008P

7,128.3 -50,933.3

-13,836.0 -10,594.8

-26,057.8 -15,367.5

5,444.8 -14,332.7

43,964.8 -10,599.7

-2,387.5 -38.6

-15,128.4 56,446.0

2,124.1 893.7

I II III IV

6,364.1 8,948.6 -4,323.4 -3,861.0

-900.7 -2,847.3 -2,606.0 -7,482.0

-12,227.6 -1,055.9 -11,455.8 -1,318.5

1,300.5 1,067.4 1,432.9 1,644.0

19,005.7 12,466.8 8,879.2 3,613.1

-813.8 -682.4 -573.7 -317.6

-3,998.3 -6,250.1 -2,495.6 -2,384.2

-1,352.5 -1,394.9 2,475.1 2,396.4

2008P I ll III IV

395.9 -4,673.7 -4,850.5 -41,805.0

-4,790.6 -2,913.5 -2,283.5 -607.2

-9,992.8 5,997.3 -12,393.1 1,021.1

-1,072.8 -805.9 -3,470.2 -8,983.8

16,489.7 -6,718.6 13,515.7 -33,886.5

-237.6 -233.0 -219.4 651.4

3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1 33,995.2

966.7 -909.6 547.3 289.3

2009

-548.7 8,893.7 15,090.0

-1,194.7 39.3 -1,485.1

3,532.3 16,740.2 19,919.7

-4,893.6 -614.9 -1,296.5

1,282.3 -7,565.6 -2,344.4

736.9 275.5 284.0

-9,017.4 -19.541.8 -23,886.9

989.4 -2,525.7 -1,675.6

2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2,179.9 -527.7 4,711.9 4,481.5 4,750.1 -283.0 -552.8 137.3 -3,907.9 -3,753.9 -373.5 266.4

-222.3 -644.1 -34.3 -402.2 -282.9 -2,162.2 -322.0 -1,427.1 -856.9 -4,514.5 -1,723.4 -1,244.1

-1,915.9 -2,366.7 -7,945.0 3,601.6 -12.6 -4,644.9 -7,912.0 -6,531.8 2,988.0 -638.2 -2,473.5 1,793.2

292.8 368.2 639.5 197.7 409.0 460.7 705.2 440.1 287.6 663.4 627.2 353.4

4,381.7 2,318.3 12,305.7 1,325.2 4,871.5 6,270.1 7,203.9 7,864.1 -6,188.8 900.5 3,269.4 -556.8

-356.4 -203.4 -254.0 -240.8 -234.9 -206.7 -227.9 -208.0 -137.8 -165.1 -73.2 -79.3

-2,350.7 -1,134.7 -512.9 -1,878.4 -4,492.9 121.2 -2,421.6 -937.6 863.4 -847.5 -493.8 -1,042.9

-268.6 1,232.0 -2,315.9 -44.5 -451.0 -899.4 1,200.7 211.2 1,063.2 1,590.9 -807.1 1,612.6

2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

409.2 -401.3 388.0 -376.9 -732.1 -3,564.7 -5,774.6 5,312.4 -4,388.3 -24,834.8 -12,140.9 -4,829.3

-2,488.7 303.5 -2,605.4 -1,911.9 -262.6 -739.0 -1,214.3 -742.7 -326.5 -198.7 -213.9 -194.6

-3,829.7 -5,214.3 -948.8 4,069.9 7,623.0 -5,695.6 -8,855.9 -566.8 -2,970.4 5,172.5 -3,139.6 -1,011.8

-181.4 -212.1 -679.3 -498.2 -279.6 -28.1 -707.2 1.4 -2,764.4 -3,912.1 -1,558.7 -3,513.0

7,013.3 4,819.9 4,656.5 -1,948.9 -7,758.2 2,988.5 5,180.4 6,730.0 1,605.3 -26,247.2 -7,439.3 -200.0

-104.3 -98.3 -35.0 -87.8 -54.7 -90.5 -177.6 -109.5 67.7 350.7 210.6 90.1

1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9 19,988.1 10,904.2 3,102.9

906.0 1,048.9 -988.2 -453.1 -1,155.0 698.5 -862.8 599.1 811.0 93.7 -670.0 865.6

2009P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

5,139.4 -2,976.9 -2,711.2 2,161.3 7,022.9 -290.5 2,384.8 5,461.0 7,244.2

-55.0 -545.5 -594.2 80.4 -259.6 218.5 -1,139.3 -111.2 -234.6

5,678.8 161.4 -2,307.9 7,133.0 4,263.5 5,343.7 7,940.1 4,063.5 7,916.1

-248.5 -2,321.2 -2,323.9 -679.8 1,341.1 -1,276.2 -272.7 -721.0 -302.8

-379.4 -610.3 2,272.0 -4,532.6 1,586.9 4,619.9 -4,379.3 2,176.2 -141.3

149.6 326.1 261.2 140.5 93.8 41.2 208.5 52.3 23.2

-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -11,218.1

985.0 673.2 -668.8 -964.6 -270.1 -1,291.0 -1,169.8 -278.0 -227.7

2007

I II IIIP

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

60

November 2009

Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets

Errors and omissions

11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)

Consumer prices

Export & import prices

Period All Items

Commodity

Service

Core

All items

Commodity

Export

Import

2007 2008

104.8 109.7

103.5 109.9

105.7 109.6

104.2 108.6

102.3 111.1

101.5 112.5

89.8 109.5

105.5 143.7

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.7

106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7 110.3 110.2

107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.9 111.0

105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.9

104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4 111.8 109.9

104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7 113.3 110.9

93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5 120.4 115.0

118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7 149.1 140.6

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2

110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9

111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8

111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0

109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8 111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9

110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5 112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8

111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3 109.0 109.3 107.3 -

138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.0 136.7 136.6 139.5 136.8 -

Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008

2.5 4.7

2.0 6.2

2.9 3.7

2.4 4.2

1.4 8.6

1.0 10.8

-2.1 21.8

4.5 36.2

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1

4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.4

3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0

2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6

4.2 5.1 6.0 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7 7.8 5.6

4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0 9.9 6.9

5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6 31.5 25.0

21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1 32.0 22.4

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0

3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0

3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0

5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6

4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1 3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1

5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2

18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -

16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9 -12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -

Source: The Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

61

12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3

Wage workers (thous.)

Economically active persons (thous.) Period

Employed persons (thous.)

Unemployment (%) Regular

Temporary

Daily

All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2007 2008

24,216 24,347

23,433 23,577

4,014 3,963

17,679 17,906

3.2 3.2

15,970 16,206

8,620 9,007

5,172 5,079

2,178 2,121

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582 24,566 24,032

22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847 23,816 23,245

4,022 4,017 3,999 4,001 3,987 3,993 3,975 3,899 3,928 3,945 3,897 3,888

17,651 17,510 17,732 17,929 18,046 18,067 18,088 17,872 17,951 18,005 18,086 17,935

3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3

16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314 16,377 16,189

8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138 9,111 9,068

5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034 5,071 5,082

2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142 2,195 2,040

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658 24,927 24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655

22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720 23,967 23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856

3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846 3,836 3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858

17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016 18,251 18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130

3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2

16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484 16,736 16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690

9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316 9,340 9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628

4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076 5,281 5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170

1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092 2,115 1,952 1,890 1,931 1.892

Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008

1.0 0.5

1.2 0.6

-1.0 -1.3

2.2 1.3

-

2.7 1.5

5.1 4.5

0.6 -1.8

-1.2 -2.6

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1

-0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6

-

2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5

5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6

-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.8

0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -6.3

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3

-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0

-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2

0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7

-

0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3

3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4

-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7

-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2 -4.5 -9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7

Source: Statistics Korea

62

November 2009

13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)

Stock

Period Call rate (1 day)

CD (91 days)

Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)

Treasury bonds (3 years)

Treasury bonds (5 years)

KOSPI (end-period)

2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7

3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0

4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5

3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1

3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3

932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40

2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8

5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2

5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8

5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9

1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50

2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7

5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7

5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9

5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9

1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3

5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7

6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4

5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0

5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3

1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0

3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8

7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6

3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5

4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9

1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69

Source: The Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

63

14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)

Period

(billion won)

Reserve money

M1

M2

Lf

2007 2008

48,543.7 52,272.8

312,832.3 307,273.6

1,197,094.8 1,367,713.4

1,603,516.0 1,794,841.2

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0 53,303.9 52,976.5 54,254.5 59,300.7

305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7 307,067.8 310,565.5 316,330.9 323,725.9

1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1 1,395,719.2 1,403,984.2 1,426,165.1 1,436,298.3

1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,774.9 1,801,540.6 1,810,535.1 1,831,313.4 1,845,717.7 1,859,348.8 1,864,111.6

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5 59,530.3 59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3

331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0 362,111.3 363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3

1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7 1,501,898.3 1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8

1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,388.6 1,897,923.7 1,912,745.6 1,925,341.0 1,939,962.4 1,956,088.3 1,972,156.3

Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008

16.5 7.7

-5.2 -1.8

11.2 14.3

10.2 11.9

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7 9.1 7.3 11.1 17.8

-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.5 5.2

12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.1

11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.4

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0 16.1 17.4 16.5 11.9

8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.5

12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.0

9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.7

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

64

November 2009

15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3

₩ /US$

₩ /100￥

₩ /Euro

Period End-period

Average

End-period

Average

End-period

Average

2007 2008

938.2 1,257.5

929.2 1,102.6

833.3 1,393.9

789.8 1,076.6

1,381.3 1,776.2

1,272.7 1,606.8

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1,187.7 1,291.4 1,482.7 1,257.5

942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4 1,326.9 1,390.1 1,373.8

889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2 1,306.0 1,553.8 1,393.9

872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6 1,327.1 1,435.1 1,503.3

1,402.3 1,423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2 1,664.4 1,912.6 1,776.2

1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6 1,765.3 1,768.9 1,846.1

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7 1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6

1,346.1 1,429.5 1,462.0 1,341.9 1,258.7 1,261.4 1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3

1,521.0 1,541.1 1,414.8 1,382.9 1,314.1 1,336.3 1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6

1,487.2 1,546.1 1,495.7 1,356.2 1,304.5 1,305.5 1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8

1,768.7 1,930.1 1,816.4 1,786.8 1,772.7 1,809.3 1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3

1,793.8 1,829.9 1,904.0 1,771.6 1,719.1 1,767.8 1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9

Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008

0.9 34.0

-2.8 18.7

6.6 67.3

-3.9 36.3

-13.0 28.6

6.1 26.2

2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0 42.3 59.5 34.0

0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2 44.9 51.6 47.7

15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6 65.1 83.6 67.3

12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8 67.8 73.7 81.5

14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0 27.1 39.4 28.6

13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1 35.5 31.5 36.2

2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

45.0 61.8 38.9 34.8 23.4 23.1 23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0

42.8 51.3 49.2 36.0 21.4 22.5 24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4

71.1 73.2 41.5 43.8 34.5 36.1 39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5

70.4 75.6 53.8 40.9 31.2 35.6 40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0

26.1 35.6 16.1 14.8 10.8 9.9 11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0

29.4 31.1 25.3 13.9 6.5 10.4 10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3

Source: The Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

65

Editor-in-Chief Park, Chul-Kyu (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Young-Min (MOSF) Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Lim, Keun-Hyuk (MOSF) Kim, Sun-Young (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI)

Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended

Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Korea National Statistical Office http://www.nso.go.kr/eng2006