Analysis And Intelligence-how Do We Know The Truth?

Melba Grullón Ubiñas Joint Intelligence Officer Dom. Rep. (RILO: JIO Caribbean) WCO, Brussels, May 4-8, 2009

“The main purpose of organizing this training course is to improve analysis capability of the RILOs”*

Intelligence is the ability to learn about, learn from, understand, and interact with one’s environment.

RILOs: WCO Regional Intelligence and Liaison Officers

* World Customs Organization

This general ability (Intelligence) consists of a number of specific abilities, which include: • Adaptability to a new environment or to changes in the current environment • Capacity for knowledge and the ability to acquire it • Capacity for reason and abstract thought • Ability to comprehend relationships • Ability to evaluate and judge • Capacity for original and productive thought

Source: http://giftedkids.about.com/od/glossary/g/intelligence.htm

Intelligence Analysis and Intelligence Cycle

* When we’re tasked with a specific project, as Intelligence Officers, we follow a five-step process called The Intelligence Cycle*. This process ensures we do our job correctly. Let’s take a closer look at each step, where Analysis is a vital part . * Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html

3.Planning and Direction * When we are tasked with a specific job, we begin planning what we’ll do and how.

We move in a specific direction to get the job done, listing what we know about the issue and what we need to find out. We discuss ways to gather the necessary intelligence.

Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html

2.Collection * We collect information overtly (openly) and covertly (secretly). Examples of “overt” (or open) sources for us: - Reading foreign newspapers and magazine articles - Listening to foreign radio - Watching overseas television broadcasts Other information sources can be “covert” (or secret): - Information collected with listening devices and hidden cameras. - We can even use space-age technology like satellite photography. (For instance, some analysts could actually view how many Airplanes are present at a foreign military base by looking at a picture taken from a satellite in space.) Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html

2.Processing * We take all the information that we have collected and put it into an intelligence report. This information could be anything from a translated document to a description of a satellite photo.

* Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html

2.Analysis and Production * During this step, we take a closer look at all the information and determine how it fits together, while concentrating on answering the original tasking. We assess: what is happening, why it is happening, what might occur next, and how it affects our nation interests.

* Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html

General Information on Analysis (What is Analysis) Analysis is a process of separating a whole into its component parts. Analysis is an investigation of the component parts of a whole and their relations in making up the whole

Analysis is science is cutting things into pieces.

Analysis is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts to gain a better understanding of it.

Analysis is the process of dismantling or separating into constituent elements in order to study the nature, function, or meaning; the result of this process; The mathematical study of functions, sequences, series, limits, derivatives and integrals; Proof by deduction from known truths;

How do we know the Truth? The 6 Basic Mistakes We Make in Thinking: 3. We prefer stories to statistics 4. We seek to confirm, not to question our ideas 5. We rarely appreciate the role of chance and coincidence in shaping events • We sometimes misperceive the world around us • We tend to oversimplify our thinking • We have faulty memories

“Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.” *

* Buddha quotes (Hindu Prince Gautama Siddharta, the founder of Buddhism, 563-483 B.C.)

Phases of the Intelligence Analysis resolve •Problematic

Analyze communicate it

7.Break into small parts

PATTERN

The WHOLE (Object of analysis)

Classify

Matters

Organize

Ideas

Element of information

ELEMENT THAT MODIFIES THE PATTERN

ANALYZE (it is break into small parts )

INTERPRETATION COMMON AND DIFFERENT ELEMENTS

SYNTHESIZE (It is to recompose what it means a part and that part added to the others

)

•

Structure text

EQUATION 7-R Interpret Contrast Formulate Conclude Project Recommend Advise

Hypothesis Explanation attempt of the information A hypothesis consists either of a suggested explanation for an observable phenomenon or of a reasoned proposal predicting a possible causal correlation among multiple phenomena

A hypothesis is a guess, or an initial answer to a problem you haven't researched yet.

a hypothesis is a theory you are attempting to prove.

Hypothesis is an educated guess (you guess the answer of the question).

Essential Elements of Information 7 “Golden” Questions

Who?

When?

With What?

What? Where?

How?

Why?

Types of Analysis A weak analysis will only tell a story or describe the topic. A good analysis will go beyond a mere description by engaging in several of the types of analysis listed below, but it will be weak on sociological analysis, the future orientation & the development of social policy. An excellent analysis will engage in many of the types of analyses discussed below and will demonstrate an aggressive sociological analysis which develops a clear future orientation and offers social policy changes to address problems associated with the topic.

Types of Analysis

1. A Narrative Analysis tells a story using a lot of relevant & descriptive details; usually organized to tell the story in sequence. The thesis is often implied, but, preferably, makes some specific, clearly articulated point about the story being told.

2. A Descriptive Analysis offers a detailed description through the use of objective or subjective language to describe some object (a person, place or thing; it may be a “social object” such as discrimination), & in the process, give the reader some dominant impression (the thesis) of the thing being described.

Types of Analysis

3. A Socio-Historical Analysis examines historical events utilizing social concepts. It examines history using social concepts such as the industrial revolution, urbanization, democratization, etc., to not only describe history, but also to understand it perhaps in a way that not even the people living at the time understood it.

4. A Comparative Analysis explains how something is like or unlike something else. The items compared need to have a basis of comparison--that is, they need to be enough alike to warrant a comparison.

Types of Analysis

5. A SWOT Analysis addresses the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, & threats to the topic. This comprehensive type of analysis addresses a topic w/ the aim of taking action in relation to the topic. If an analysis demonstrates particular strengths & weakness, then particular opportunities & threats (actions) are implied.

6. A "Cause & Effect" Analysis demonstrates how the occurrence of one event correlates w/ a particular outcome. While there are many types of cause & effect relationships, for most assignments in the social sciences, the focus should be on social causes and social effects. It is also reasonable to examine how non-social (e.g. physical, biological, psychological, etc.) causes also have social effects.

Types of Analysis

7. A Statistical Analysis will generally be used to demonstrate a "cause & effect" relationship (i.e. a correlation) or a Comparison. Statistical Analysis should always assume that the reader does not understand statistics. Thus, Statistical Analysis should always be accompanied by the appropriate type of analysis discussed here-in such as a Comparative Analysis or a "Cause & Effect" Analysis..

8. A Critique assesses the ideas of another or a social phenomenon. Generally, critiques address the strengths & weakness & take a position on the balance of the two. In addressing strengths & weaknesses, critiques may address the validity of a cause & effect relationship, examining whether the relationship exists as assumed by its proponents. Critiques are frequently given for private & public social policies.

Types of Analysis 9. A Sociological Analysis utilizes one of the types of analysis described here while utilizing social concepts, processes, theories & one or more sociological paradigms. The writer seeks to find causes and/or describe or predict effects. It focuses on - factors external to the individual such as social conditions in the community or society - the meanings that members of a social organization share - an individual's social location (class, status, gender, ethnicity, race, religion, authority position, etc.).

10. An analysis that utilizes a Future Orientation should, in relationship to the variables & issues examined, predict the future. Many of the types of analyses discussed here lean toward a discussion w/ a future orientation. In the future orientation analysis, the researcher uses any of the types of analyses discussed here, not only to understand the past & the present, but also to predict what will occur in the immediate term, the long term and in the distant term.

Types of Analysis 11. An analysis that offers a Social Policy is essentially proposing an integrated set of solutions that operate at both the individual & the social levels. An analysis may be used as a basis for assessing the outcomes or effects in a cause and effect relation and offering a recommendation or solution for the question examined. That is, an analysis may be used to formulate a policy that addresses the problems in relation to the causes or effects of the sociological analysis.

1. Dissemination In this final step, we give our final written analysis to a policymaker, the same policymaker who started the cycle. After reading the final analysis and learning the answer to the original question, the policymaker may come back with more questions. Then the whole process starts over again.

* Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html

Strengths of the Analyst

Total Knowledge of the operational objective

Skills in the interviews of sources

Total Knowledge of the geographic environment

Strategic Alliances with other agencies

Skills in handling Technical resources

Use of the intelligence resources

Information management

The analyst is (or must be) an excellent information administrator

Observation Exercise Observe carefully.

What you see, is not always what it seems to be

The way you see things is a reflection of what is inside your mind…

There are 10 alive beings…Can you find them?

LIGHT, DISCERNMENT, LOVE AND PEACE FOR ALL!