An Pacific' Chimera
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Asia Times Online :: Southeast Asia news and business from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam
Front Page Greater China China Business South Asia Southeast Asia Japan Korea Middle East Central Asia World Economy Asian Economy IT World Book Reviews Letters Forum
09-11-03 11:13 AM
Southeast Asia Aug 6, 2009 SPEAKING FREELY
An 'Asia-Pacific' chimera By Andy Yee Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing. Since Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd proposed building an Asia-Pacific community in June last year, there has been considerable debate among policymakers and academics on reforming the regional architecture of East Asia. In the recently concluded US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, however, regional security arrangements received little attention. If anything can be learned about the recent proliferation of multilateral institutions, it is that they are very often driven by, not drivers of, the political and economic realities of each region. Around China's near abroad in East, Central and South Asia, three regional communities have taken shape: the Association of
Sino-Russian baby comes of age (Jun 13, '09)
1. Goldman Sachs, the lords of time 2. Ahmadinejad faces his toughest test 3. US's $1bn Islamabad home is its castle 4. China works pay miracle 5. Gayatri Devi, the last of the maharanis Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). These three regions have different degrees of economic integration. Politically, three respective axes differentiate them: US-China, China-Russia and China-India. Political relationships in the three axes show sharp contrast. Take a look at military ties. China and Russia held joint military exercises under the name "Peace Mission" as recently as last month, and also in 2007 and 2005. In contrast, the US and China agreed only to resume high-level military exchanges. A few months ago, their relations were shadowed by a maritime http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KH06Ae01.html
6. Clinton's India visit a low-key success 7. A search for motives in Christian attack 8. Helmand's 'dagger' cuts three ways 9. Ten steps to liquidate US bases 10. Faith-based investing Page 1 of 5
Asia Times Online :: Southeast Asia news and business from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam
incident in the South China Sea. In June this year, India was ramping up its military deployment along its border with China, positioning two army divisions as well as squadrons of Su-30. By observing patterns of regional architecture in these regions, we can see that they are often manifestations of political and economic realities. East Asia East Asian regional architectures have developed significantly over the past two decades, represented by a matrix of organizations including ASEAN, the ASEAN+1s, ASEAN+3 and the East Asia Summit (EAS).
09-11-03 11:13 AM
(24 hours to 11:59pm ET, Aug 4, 2009)
Superfusion Vividly written and timely reminder of the risk that binds US & China www.RiverTwice.com
These arrangements are very different from other regions. Firstly, they emphasize informal dialogue and trust-building over formal agreements ("the ASEAN way"). Secondly, they are all ASEAN-driven, but have significant overlaps, representing different views on the membership of an East Asian community. Thirdly, they focus mainly on free trade, economic and development issues. Recently, however, they are moving towards wider regional issues and non-traditional security threats. Different interpretations exist as to China's goals of multilateral diplomacy: whether this is a realpolitik effort to advance national interest and erode US power in the region, or a genuine commitment as a responsible stakeholder. While it is difficult to identify empirical evidence, the above-mentioned regional characteristics suggest that both may be occurring. East Asian economies have well-developed trade and financial relationships. The ASEAN-Japan free trade area (known as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) took effect in December 2008. An ASEAN-China Free Trade Area will take effect in 2010 for certain ASEAN countries, and be fully developed in 2015. The ASEAN+3 countries boost a common regional reserve pool known as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization of US$120 billion. Meanwhile, Beijing often speaks of China's peaceful rise (heping jueqi). It demonstrates this by active participation in multilateral organizations. However, China's neighbors do not want to see Sino-US rivalry played out in their front yard. Shortly after the 2001 EP-3 surveillance plane incident, Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew remarked: "We in Southeast Asia held our breath. When it was over, we heaved a sigh of relief." They do not want to be forced to choose between the US and China. An ASEANled system is acceptable to China, the US and other East Asian countries. Yet, US alliances in Asia are still concerned about China's dominance in ASEAN+3. In response, they pushed for the creation of EAS, by adding India, Australia and New Zealand into the existing ASEAN+3. In order not to appear obstructionist, China has tried to downplay the importance of EAS rather than refusing to be part of it. Before the first EAS summit in 2005, China maintained that ASEAN+3, not the EAS, should be in the driver's seat for the East Asia community-building exercise. In the second EAS summit in 2007, Premier Wen Jiabao argued that the EAS should more properly serve as a strategic platform for the exchange of ideas and facilitation of cooperation. As a hedge, China prefers informal, non-institutionalized dialogues to reduce the risk of a coordinated effort to constrain its action. Central Asia The SCO is the one regional organization that China has founded and that it is proud of. In contrast to East Asia, it is more institutionalized and has more rules and formal agreements. In 2004, the Regional Anti-terrorism Structure was established. In 2007, armed forces of all member states participated in the joint Peace Mission anti-terrorism exercises.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KH06Ae01.html
Page 2 of 5
Asia Times Online :: Southeast Asia news and business from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam
09-11-03 11:13 AM
Evidently, the two regional powers, China and Russia, view themselves as having aligned interests in the region. After the Xinjiang incident on July 5, the People's Daily launched commentaries accusing the US and the three evil forces of terrorism, extremism and separatism as detrimental to Xinjiang and the region. Within 48 hours of the violence, Moscow issued a statement strongly supportive of Beijing. On July 10, the SCO issued a statement to "further deepen practical cooperation in the field of fighting against terrorism, separatism, extremism and transnational organized crime for the sake of safeguarding regional security and stability". In return, China is satisfied with Russia's effort to counter against US influence in Central Asia through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). It also has a stake in supporting Russia's effort to build an anti-terrorism center in Kyrgyzstan and develop the CSTO Rapid Reaction Force in Central Asia. The China-Russia leaders' meeting in June following the BRIC summit indicated a high degree of political and foreign policy coordination in future in Central Asia. Importantly, China expressed its support of Russia over the situation in Caucasus. For the moment, Sino-Russian convergence over regional security in Central Asia results in their stepping up of political efforts in regional cooperation. This enables the creation of a simple and authoritative regional architecture, namely the SCO. South Asia SAARC, the equivalent of ASEAN in Southeast Asia, is a dysfunctional organization that attracts little enthusiasm among its members. It is crippled by the strategic rivalry between India and Pakistan. In addition, a less dynamic trade regime means that SAARC is not a priority to South Asian countries as ASEAN is to Southeast Asian countries. According to the International Monetary Fund, India's trade with SAARC amounted to 2.8% of its total trade in 2006, while its trade with East Asia amounted to 24.9%. China became an observer of SAARC in 2005, and Chinese foreign ministers attended the SAARC leaders' summit in 2007 and 2008. China has a vital interest in cross-border integration schemes with South Asia so as to develop eastern Tibet and Yunnan province. In 1999, the Yunnan provincial government hosted the Conference on Regional Cooperation and Development with India, Myanmar and Bangladesh in Kunming. They approved the Kunming Initiative, which aimed to improve communications between southwestern China and northeastern India by developing transportation links. The initiative currently remains a non-governmental one. At present, China-SAARC cooperation is limited to diplomatic exchanges, official seminars and trade fairs. While China has sought a greater role in SAARC, Chinese assistant Foreign Minister He Yafei said in 2007 that it was still too early for China to apply for SAARC membership. India is highly skeptical about China's South Asia policy, including its strategic relationship with Pakistan, unresolved border disputes, Chinese naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean and China's influence over Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka to balance India. New Delhi and Beijing seem to be focusing their naval strategies on each other. China is constructing naval stations and refueling ports in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and India's rival Pakistan. India has transformed a bay in the southern state of Karnataka into an advanced naval installation. During the SCO and BRIC summits on June 16 and 17, Beijing avoided bringing their long-standing land border disputes to the http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KH06Ae01.html
Page 3 of 5
Asia Times Online :: Southeast Asia news and business from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam
09-11-03 11:13 AM
forum. Merely over a week before, on June 8, New Delhi announced it would deploy two additional army divisions and two air force squadrons near its border with China. Policy implications for an 'Asia-Pacific community' We can briefly summarize China's relative experience of multilateral diplomacy in the three regions. With East Asia, it is strong economically but weak politically. With Central Asia, it is weak economically but strong politically. With South Asia, it is weak both economically and politically. Now let's return to the fundamentals of East Asia as a region. Firstly, it is a stable and dynamic economic regime. Secondly, it is crowded with competing regional leaders: the US, China, Japan and ASEAN. These fundamentals have a complex, nonbinding and economic-focused regional arrangement. It will neither move towards the direction of greater institutionalization and stronger political unity, like the SCO, nor will it deteriorate, like the arguably dysfunctional SAARC. With this background, we can understand the constraints facing East Asia and foresee what a future regional framework will look like. It will respect all countries in the region, big and small, as equal partners. It will be open and inclusive to countries both within and outside the region. It will have no clear regional leader and there will be no willingness to cause too much disruption to the status quo. It will also be a mix of formal and informal arrangements. Therefore, it will be a flexible framework. ASEAN, the current driver of the regional agenda acceptable to all major powers, would act as the core platform, out of which trans-regional and sub-regional channels and dialogues could be established. Given the dynamics of East Asia and the emergence of global challenges like climate change, financial crisis and nontraditional security threats, the scope for multilateral cooperation is great. However, realizing the complex political realities, it is impossible to create a brand new regional institution. The most probable way would be adjustments and supplements over the existing architecture. Ultimately a harmonious and effective framework would be a product of the balance of various powers. Andy Yee is a postgraduate student in Pacific Asian Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. (Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.) Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KH06Ae01.html
Page 4 of 5
Asia Times Online :: Southeast Asia news and business from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam
www.RiverTwice.com
09-11-03 11:13 AM
Feedback - Ads by Google
All material on this website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written permission. © Copyright 1999 - 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings), Ltd. Head Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East, Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau: 11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KH06Ae01.html
Page 5 of 5
Front Page Greater China China Business South Asia Southeast Asia Japan Korea Middle East Central Asia World Economy Asian Economy IT World Book Reviews Letters Forum
09-11-03 11:13 AM
Southeast Asia Aug 6, 2009 SPEAKING FREELY
An 'Asia-Pacific' chimera By Andy Yee Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing. Since Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd proposed building an Asia-Pacific community in June last year, there has been considerable debate among policymakers and academics on reforming the regional architecture of East Asia. In the recently concluded US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, however, regional security arrangements received little attention. If anything can be learned about the recent proliferation of multilateral institutions, it is that they are very often driven by, not drivers of, the political and economic realities of each region. Around China's near abroad in East, Central and South Asia, three regional communities have taken shape: the Association of
Sino-Russian baby comes of age (Jun 13, '09)
1. Goldman Sachs, the lords of time 2. Ahmadinejad faces his toughest test 3. US's $1bn Islamabad home is its castle 4. China works pay miracle 5. Gayatri Devi, the last of the maharanis Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). These three regions have different degrees of economic integration. Politically, three respective axes differentiate them: US-China, China-Russia and China-India. Political relationships in the three axes show sharp contrast. Take a look at military ties. China and Russia held joint military exercises under the name "Peace Mission" as recently as last month, and also in 2007 and 2005. In contrast, the US and China agreed only to resume high-level military exchanges. A few months ago, their relations were shadowed by a maritime http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KH06Ae01.html
6. Clinton's India visit a low-key success 7. A search for motives in Christian attack 8. Helmand's 'dagger' cuts three ways 9. Ten steps to liquidate US bases 10. Faith-based investing Page 1 of 5
Asia Times Online :: Southeast Asia news and business from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam
incident in the South China Sea. In June this year, India was ramping up its military deployment along its border with China, positioning two army divisions as well as squadrons of Su-30. By observing patterns of regional architecture in these regions, we can see that they are often manifestations of political and economic realities. East Asia East Asian regional architectures have developed significantly over the past two decades, represented by a matrix of organizations including ASEAN, the ASEAN+1s, ASEAN+3 and the East Asia Summit (EAS).
09-11-03 11:13 AM
(24 hours to 11:59pm ET, Aug 4, 2009)
Superfusion Vividly written and timely reminder of the risk that binds US & China www.RiverTwice.com
These arrangements are very different from other regions. Firstly, they emphasize informal dialogue and trust-building over formal agreements ("the ASEAN way"). Secondly, they are all ASEAN-driven, but have significant overlaps, representing different views on the membership of an East Asian community. Thirdly, they focus mainly on free trade, economic and development issues. Recently, however, they are moving towards wider regional issues and non-traditional security threats. Different interpretations exist as to China's goals of multilateral diplomacy: whether this is a realpolitik effort to advance national interest and erode US power in the region, or a genuine commitment as a responsible stakeholder. While it is difficult to identify empirical evidence, the above-mentioned regional characteristics suggest that both may be occurring. East Asian economies have well-developed trade and financial relationships. The ASEAN-Japan free trade area (known as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) took effect in December 2008. An ASEAN-China Free Trade Area will take effect in 2010 for certain ASEAN countries, and be fully developed in 2015. The ASEAN+3 countries boost a common regional reserve pool known as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization of US$120 billion. Meanwhile, Beijing often speaks of China's peaceful rise (heping jueqi). It demonstrates this by active participation in multilateral organizations. However, China's neighbors do not want to see Sino-US rivalry played out in their front yard. Shortly after the 2001 EP-3 surveillance plane incident, Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew remarked: "We in Southeast Asia held our breath. When it was over, we heaved a sigh of relief." They do not want to be forced to choose between the US and China. An ASEANled system is acceptable to China, the US and other East Asian countries. Yet, US alliances in Asia are still concerned about China's dominance in ASEAN+3. In response, they pushed for the creation of EAS, by adding India, Australia and New Zealand into the existing ASEAN+3. In order not to appear obstructionist, China has tried to downplay the importance of EAS rather than refusing to be part of it. Before the first EAS summit in 2005, China maintained that ASEAN+3, not the EAS, should be in the driver's seat for the East Asia community-building exercise. In the second EAS summit in 2007, Premier Wen Jiabao argued that the EAS should more properly serve as a strategic platform for the exchange of ideas and facilitation of cooperation. As a hedge, China prefers informal, non-institutionalized dialogues to reduce the risk of a coordinated effort to constrain its action. Central Asia The SCO is the one regional organization that China has founded and that it is proud of. In contrast to East Asia, it is more institutionalized and has more rules and formal agreements. In 2004, the Regional Anti-terrorism Structure was established. In 2007, armed forces of all member states participated in the joint Peace Mission anti-terrorism exercises.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KH06Ae01.html
Page 2 of 5
Asia Times Online :: Southeast Asia news and business from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam
09-11-03 11:13 AM
Evidently, the two regional powers, China and Russia, view themselves as having aligned interests in the region. After the Xinjiang incident on July 5, the People's Daily launched commentaries accusing the US and the three evil forces of terrorism, extremism and separatism as detrimental to Xinjiang and the region. Within 48 hours of the violence, Moscow issued a statement strongly supportive of Beijing. On July 10, the SCO issued a statement to "further deepen practical cooperation in the field of fighting against terrorism, separatism, extremism and transnational organized crime for the sake of safeguarding regional security and stability". In return, China is satisfied with Russia's effort to counter against US influence in Central Asia through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). It also has a stake in supporting Russia's effort to build an anti-terrorism center in Kyrgyzstan and develop the CSTO Rapid Reaction Force in Central Asia. The China-Russia leaders' meeting in June following the BRIC summit indicated a high degree of political and foreign policy coordination in future in Central Asia. Importantly, China expressed its support of Russia over the situation in Caucasus. For the moment, Sino-Russian convergence over regional security in Central Asia results in their stepping up of political efforts in regional cooperation. This enables the creation of a simple and authoritative regional architecture, namely the SCO. South Asia SAARC, the equivalent of ASEAN in Southeast Asia, is a dysfunctional organization that attracts little enthusiasm among its members. It is crippled by the strategic rivalry between India and Pakistan. In addition, a less dynamic trade regime means that SAARC is not a priority to South Asian countries as ASEAN is to Southeast Asian countries. According to the International Monetary Fund, India's trade with SAARC amounted to 2.8% of its total trade in 2006, while its trade with East Asia amounted to 24.9%. China became an observer of SAARC in 2005, and Chinese foreign ministers attended the SAARC leaders' summit in 2007 and 2008. China has a vital interest in cross-border integration schemes with South Asia so as to develop eastern Tibet and Yunnan province. In 1999, the Yunnan provincial government hosted the Conference on Regional Cooperation and Development with India, Myanmar and Bangladesh in Kunming. They approved the Kunming Initiative, which aimed to improve communications between southwestern China and northeastern India by developing transportation links. The initiative currently remains a non-governmental one. At present, China-SAARC cooperation is limited to diplomatic exchanges, official seminars and trade fairs. While China has sought a greater role in SAARC, Chinese assistant Foreign Minister He Yafei said in 2007 that it was still too early for China to apply for SAARC membership. India is highly skeptical about China's South Asia policy, including its strategic relationship with Pakistan, unresolved border disputes, Chinese naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean and China's influence over Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka to balance India. New Delhi and Beijing seem to be focusing their naval strategies on each other. China is constructing naval stations and refueling ports in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and India's rival Pakistan. India has transformed a bay in the southern state of Karnataka into an advanced naval installation. During the SCO and BRIC summits on June 16 and 17, Beijing avoided bringing their long-standing land border disputes to the http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KH06Ae01.html
Page 3 of 5
Asia Times Online :: Southeast Asia news and business from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam
09-11-03 11:13 AM
forum. Merely over a week before, on June 8, New Delhi announced it would deploy two additional army divisions and two air force squadrons near its border with China. Policy implications for an 'Asia-Pacific community' We can briefly summarize China's relative experience of multilateral diplomacy in the three regions. With East Asia, it is strong economically but weak politically. With Central Asia, it is weak economically but strong politically. With South Asia, it is weak both economically and politically. Now let's return to the fundamentals of East Asia as a region. Firstly, it is a stable and dynamic economic regime. Secondly, it is crowded with competing regional leaders: the US, China, Japan and ASEAN. These fundamentals have a complex, nonbinding and economic-focused regional arrangement. It will neither move towards the direction of greater institutionalization and stronger political unity, like the SCO, nor will it deteriorate, like the arguably dysfunctional SAARC. With this background, we can understand the constraints facing East Asia and foresee what a future regional framework will look like. It will respect all countries in the region, big and small, as equal partners. It will be open and inclusive to countries both within and outside the region. It will have no clear regional leader and there will be no willingness to cause too much disruption to the status quo. It will also be a mix of formal and informal arrangements. Therefore, it will be a flexible framework. ASEAN, the current driver of the regional agenda acceptable to all major powers, would act as the core platform, out of which trans-regional and sub-regional channels and dialogues could be established. Given the dynamics of East Asia and the emergence of global challenges like climate change, financial crisis and nontraditional security threats, the scope for multilateral cooperation is great. However, realizing the complex political realities, it is impossible to create a brand new regional institution. The most probable way would be adjustments and supplements over the existing architecture. Ultimately a harmonious and effective framework would be a product of the balance of various powers. Andy Yee is a postgraduate student in Pacific Asian Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. (Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.) Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KH06Ae01.html
Page 4 of 5
Asia Times Online :: Southeast Asia news and business from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam
www.RiverTwice.com
09-11-03 11:13 AM
Feedback - Ads by Google
All material on this website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written permission. © Copyright 1999 - 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings), Ltd. Head Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East, Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau: 11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KH06Ae01.html
Page 5 of 5
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