Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk

IAC-08-A4.2.6 PLANNING FOR CONTACT: FANTASY DOCUMENTS OR GUIDELINES FOR ACTION? Albert A. Harrison University of California Davis, USA [email protected] ABSTRACT This paper begins with a review of three potentially useful strategies for anticipating human reaction to the discovery of extraterrestrial life. Since the 1960s, researchers have looked to historical precedents or analogues (such as Europeans arriving in the Americas) for guidance. Do these past events offer useful prototypes or give rise to ―fantasy documents‖ that have only an illusion of relevance? The choice of analogues, explicit recognition of differences between analogues and future events, and the careful qualification of findings increase the usefulness of this method. Survey research is a potentially powerful tool, but many of the most publicized surveys that touch upon life in the universe are of marginal relevance because they were designed to promote sensational television programs. Still, past surveys can be mined for useful data and funding for surveys dedicated to astrobiology and SETI would be very useful. Scenarios are carefully constructed narratives about possible futures. Whereas no scenario will capture the actual future, thinking through the issues may reduce the ―surprise‖ factor and facilitate appropriate action as the actual future unfolds. We identify four scenarios relevant to SETI and propose a wiki as a platform for scenario development. Interest in the human response to extraterrestrial life has waxed and waned over the centuries, but gained new significance after scientists established the feasibility of interstellar communication. 1, 2 Project Ozma, the first radiotelescope search, influenced the 1961 Brookings Report on the peaceful uses of outer space.3 Commissioned by NASA, led by psychologist Donald Michael, and prepared by a large team of experts and consultants, most of the report focused on topics such as communications satellites that were __________________________ © Copyright 2008 by the International Astronautical Federation. All rights reserved.

futuristic at the time but are commonplace today. Dismayed by a long history of misunderstandings and conflicts when radically different terrestrial cultures encountered each other, the report urged ongoing studies to prepare humanity for the discovery of extraterrestrial life. The recommendation was taken to heart, and over the years many workshops, papers and books have grappled with the psychological, societal, and cultural implications of the search for extraterrestrial life.1,2,4-9

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This paper briefly discusses three research methods for informing such discussions: historical precedents or analogues, survey research, and scenario planning. It then proposes a Web-based wiki as a useful planning device. LESSONS FROM HISTORY Politicians, military leaders, corporate executives and other leaders look to the past for solutions to today’s problems. Crucial decisions involving war and peace, the fate of massive welfare programs and efforts to contain pandemics have all rested in part on perceptions of past situations, choices, and outcomes. Analogies or ―analogues,‖ which involve close parallels or similarities between earlier and contemporary or anticipated (target) events have been of particular use. For example, the results of ―appeasement‖ prior to World War II toughened the stance of postwar negotiators, and strong parallels between the Spanish Influenza of 1919 and the later Swine Flu led U.S. President Ford to order a crash inoculation program in 1976.10 Historical analogues play a prominent role in discussions of anticipated space age events. Studies conducted in ―spaceflight analogous‖ settings such as polar outposts, underwater research vessels and remote industrial and military sites offer insights for supporting astronauts and cosmonauts on extended duration flights.11,12 Past experience with hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, and other disasters gives us a starting point, at least, for addressing behavioral and policy aspects of protecting Earth from the threat of asteroid and comet impacts. And, to gain insights on the psychological, societal and cultural effects of the discovery of extraterrestrial life, researchers sought historical analogues for inspiration.1-5 Certainly one of the most obvious analogues is the arrival of the English, Spaniards and other Europeans in Africa and the Americas during the Age of

Exploration. Here, the technologically advanced Europeans are the precursors of the extraterrestrials, while humans are cast as the technologically disadvantaged and perhaps overawed natives. As Steven Dick points out, the transmission of ideas from culture to culture is a more useful analogue given that under the standard SETI detection scenario we expect communication without physical contact.1 A good prototype here is the transmission of the beginnings of modern mathematics from India through the mid-East to Europe. Among other things, by giving us a quantitative basis for estimating odds, this new knowledge stimulated a whole new way for thinking about the future.13 We should adopt a broad view of history, including not only inscribed tablets and yellowing documents, but also contemporary archives, such as today’s newspaper and recent posting to the World Wide Web. Also interesting are episodes where significant numbers of people believed that humans had found extraterrestrial life.5 These include a period in the 1840s when readers of a widely circulated New York newspaper reported that an astronomer had discovered ―bat men‖ on the Moon, and, a few decades later, widespread acceptance of the idea that astronomers had found evidence of a dying civilization on Mars. Orson Welles’ 1938 War of the Worlds broadcast led some radio listeners to believe that an alien invasion had begun. This is memorable because of widespread and overstated media accounts of panic.5 Then, in 1947 a newspaper announced that the United States Air Force had retrieved a flying saucer in New Mexico. This produced no discernible immediate reaction (perhaps because the announcement was immediately retracted) but years later gave rise to the persistent and resilient Roswell myth.14 In the 1960s, scientists thought briefly that quasars and pulsars might be intelligently controlled interstellar beacons. More recently, there

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was an erroneous news report that radio astronomers detected an extraterrestrial signal. Richard Neustadt and Ernest R. May point out that analogues differ in terms of the allure that they have for their beholder.10 The most powerful analogues, those that seem immediately obvious to everyone, are classified as ―irresistible.‖ Because of the congruence between the claim that radioastronomers had a confirmed detection and the way an actual SETI detection was likely to occur, this analogue seems irresistible and it is tempting to take the muted (if even perceptible) public response to the erroneous news report as a good approximation of responses to a real SETI detection. Somewhat less compelling but still easy to grasp are ―captivating‖ analogues. Perhaps many people would see the War of the Worlds broadcast as captivating. After all, here was a situation where many people thought that the Martians had landed and the (inaccurate) news reports fit in with popular notions of panic. Finally, there are merely ―seductive‖ analogues: like the ―boy or girl next door‖ they do not necessarily leap to mind but, over time, become more interesting. The transmission of ideas from culture to culture may fall into this category. The most alluring analogues, note Neustadt and May, are not necessarily the best analogues.10 We should continually ask ourselves why particular analogues are attractive. Analogues that seem compelling at first may later fall apart. For example, despite the initially powerful resemblance between the Spanish and Swine flu epidemics the latter was nowhere near as lethal; the crash inoculation program in 1976 was not only unnecessary but had many unfortunate economic, political, and legal consequences. Government authorities then lacked sufficient time to develop a firm knowledge base and carefully review their options.

In some areas historical precedents seem useless; despite powerful motivation and at least two hundred years of carefully recorded data we are still reduced to guessing when it comes to forecasting the value of common stocks. Successful fund managers are those who have had a good run of luck, and for everyone who has achieved great wealth there are many who remain in modest circumstances or who are financially ruined.13 As for SETI analogues we have relatively few data points, mostly from earlier times involving cultures that differ significantly from their modern counterparts. Given that analysts equipped with powerful computers and millions of data points cannot predict the value of a given investment, can we hope to do better on the basis of a small handful of cases? In his discussion of ―fantasy documents,‖ sociologist Lee Clarke’s warns that analogues may have only a superficial, even deceptive relationship to a target event and prove useless for any practical purpose.15 He illustrates this by noting that, over the years, U. S. civil defense planners proposed building shelters that would protect people from atomic blast and fallout but had to abandon this strategy when more potent H-bombs came on line, boosting the costs of shelters to unacceptable levels. Later, authorities decided that evacuation would keep people alive. Just as they could evacuate beach communities on the shores of Long Island, New York in the face of an impending hurricane, they could move people from Manhattan to Albany just before the bombs fell. Protecting people from nuclear conflagration, officials would have us believe, is not that different from protecting them from natural disasters. Using a hurricane as a prototype for a nuclear attack creates an ―affinity‖ between the two events. Implicitly, we assume that our experience with hurricanes, which is considerable, offers protection from modern thermonuclear

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war, a type of catastrophe that we have yet to experience. The superficial similarities between the two events—hurricanes and nuclear attacks—at once creates the illusion that the plan is based on experience and diverts attention from the tremendous differences between them. Hurricanes cannot strike within thirty minutes of their detection, cannot be retargeted to annihilate populations that have moved elsewhere, and do not lead to nuclear winters. Thus, fantasy documents are plans developed without a firm knowledge base. Certainly, preparing to encounter creatures whose psychology and culture are not known to us is another area where planning must proceed under conditions of high uncertainty. Are the historical cases that we choose useful analogues or misleading affinities? Certain safeguards should minimize the role of fantasy in planning documents. When turning to history for advice we should have clearly formulated questions and get the facts straight. For example, are widespread images of panic and social chaos following natural or technological disasters factual or based on media-fed stereotypes? Sociological research suggests the second alternative is more likely.16 Neustadt and May recommend separating assumptions, facts, and uncertainties.10 They suggest classifying elements of the historical episode and the target event into one of three categories: ―known,‖ ―presumed‖ and ―unclear.‖ This separates guesswork from knowledge and recognizes ambiguities and information gaps. Also, they encourage developing lists of ―likenesses‖ and ―differences‖ for analogues and targets. For example, we have to keep in mind that today’s world of high technology, instant communication, and democracies, contemporary culture not only differs tremendously from the times that Europeans arrived in the Americas or Percival Lowell concluded that he had seen signs of intelligent life on

Mars. Separating fact from presumption, acknowledging uncertainties, and recognizing both likenesses and differences should improve the usefulness of historical analogues or at least reduce the shock value if history fails to repeat itself. We can further distance ourselves from fantasy documents if we understand Clarke’s views on why these exist.15 Fantasy documents are largely symbolic communications intended to serve political and organizational purposes. Their whole goal is to reassure audiences that the planners are aware of the situation and the implicit message is ―trust us – we know what we are doing,‖ but such trust would be misplaced. Fantasy documents shield elites and organizations from blame, by showing that a problem has been considered and ―appropriate‖ measures taken. Fantasy documents evolve when political agendas, and authorities, experts and consultants work together to make an intractable problem seem solvable or to define the problem away. Oftentimes these experts are working far from their areas of expertise. Dissenters are silenced (for example by casting people who agree with the document as experts and those who dispute the document as inexpert) and people who hold opposing positions are made to seem irrational. The document is approved on ideological bases rather than stringent peer review. Reality checks come too late. SURVEY RESEARCH Survey research involves oral interviews or written questionnaires to tap people’s opinions and attitudes. The keys to success are framing the questions, drawing the samples, administering the questionnaires, and analyzing the results. To the extent that the questions are framed properly and the sample drawn is representative of the population of interest, researchers can get quantitative

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estimates of the prevalence and strength of people’s views. Common pitfalls include failing to ask the right questions or doing so in a misleading or confusing manner; non-representative samples that are based on convenience or self selection; and low response rates that lead to misleading findings. Survey research is put to good use in political opinion polls and marketing research. However, drawing a representative sample is technically challenging and costly, as is sending researchers into the field to track down and interview unenthusiastic participants whose exclusion would bias the results. International polls, which would be useful for present purposes, are even more difficult since they pose more complex sampling issues and require questions that retain their meaning in different languages. Surveys of college students, newspaper subscribers, astronomers, pastors, and UFO enthusiasts are fine for some purposes, as long as we never lose sight of the limited nature of the samples. Today, many organizations sponsor Internet surveys and some of these get substantial numbers of responses. The problem is that respondents are self-selected and therefore non-representative. For example, identical web based questionnaires on evolution and intelligent design posted by scientific and religious organizations are likely to point to different conclusions because the two Websites draw people who have different beliefs. As John Billingham pointed out, survey research could be a potent tool for exploring people’s views of extraterrestrial life.17 Numerous surveys over the years have touched on beliefs about our place in the universe and related issues. Oftentimes these are geared towards UFOs, but some surveys contain information directly relevant to astrobiology and SETI. For example, a 1999 Gallup Poll showed that 35 percent of the American respondents believed that

life existed on Mars, 61 percent thought that other forms of life existed elsewhere in the universe, and 41 percent thought that there could be ―people somewhat like ourselves‖ living out there.18 A few other surveys contain findings of general interest despite reference to UFOs. An example is Victoria Alexander’s ―UFO Survey‖ of ministers, priests and rabbis.19 Caution is required because of her low response rate, but her findings of positive and relaxed attitudes towards the idea of a populated universe and the possibility of contact are interesting. Still, many polls fail to separate scientific and paranormal themes. Those of us who are specifically interested in attitudes towards astrobiology and SETI do not have the financial means of television producers who seek sensational opinions about the reality of flying saucers, alien abductions, and government cover-up in order to generate public interest in their television programs. A dozen or so carefully developed questions asked by trained professionals of well chosen respondents could go a long way towards elucidating national and world attitudes towards astrobiology, SETI, our place in the universe, and anticipated human reactions to extraterrestrial life. SCENARIO PLANNING Based on the technical term for a play or a movie, a scenario is a narrative or story about how the future might evolve.20-22 Plots are carefully constructed to underscore key elements. Different stories of what might happen under different scenarios draw attention to multiple possibilities. First used by the military, scenario planning spread to government and industry. Military planners develop scenarios where current allies join enemy camps, and energy companies develop scenarios where the emergence of new technologies reduces demands for their products. Scenario planning is useful for decisions, for example, preparing for new

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kinds of warfare or buying rights to a competing product before it becomes a threat in the marketplace. Scenario planning is a group activity, involving perhaps 20 people. The group as a whole sets goals, begins to rough out the scenarios, and generates ideas. The group is composed in such a way as to bring different viewpoints, ideas, and talents to the table, and it helps to include decisionmakers who are likely to use the results. An ―open mind‖ is important, but so also is not getting drowned in falsehood and trivia. Participants are encouraged to think creatively, identify and challenge their own assumptions and prejudices, and become attuned to multiple points of view. Up to a point, unconventional thinkers are considered an asset. Schwartz writes ―At the social and intellectual fringes, thinkers are freer to let their imaginations roam, but they are still constrained by a sense of current reality… [but]… it is hard to predict which fringe elements will remain in obscurity and which will change the world.‖ 20, p. 69 Scenarios are developed in depth and trace as many ramifications as possible. Generally, groups construct between two and (at the outside) five scenarios; beyond this, scenarios tend to become confused with one another. Scenarios include predetermined elements (what we already know), constraints, and critical uncertainties. For example, within the SETI framework, we would already know that ―they‖ will have achieved or surpassed our level of technology, and interstellar distances will constrain communication. After the initial meetings a group of core participants do further background research, organize the ideas, and write the scenarios. ―Partially filtered‖ information is desirable; that is, researchers try to avoid complete jumbles of ideas and oversold conclusions. One of the functions of the exercise is to challenge preconceptions, so both disconfirming and confirming evidence is welcome. Later,

scenarios can be re-evaluated by the team, and the process reiterated as necessary. In effect, much speculation about the philosophical and practical implications of extraterrestrial life is based on rudimentary scenarios based in people’s heads but most speculations are piecemeal and poorly integrated. Recently, Michael Michaud has identified problems that hinder discussions of SETI and its consequences.2 Among other things, these include optimistic and pessimistic biases, and tendencies to anthropomorphize or impute human characteristics to extraterrestrials. They also include assumptions that astronomers will make the discovery, that extraterrestrial societies will have either no impact or an extreme impact on our own societies, that they will speak the language of science, and that they will be prepared for us even if we aren’t prepared for them. Michaud also notes certain blind spots. One of his examples is overlooking the possibility of direct forms of contact, such as finding an extraterrestrial artifact within our solar system. The scenario planning process is geared to ferret out hidden assumptions, illuminate blind spots, and challenge forgone conclusions. Thus the technique should help planners overcome many of the concerns raised by Michaud. Scenarios do not predict the future but they do allow us to rehearse the future. We do not know what will actually happen but we can prepare ourselves by thinking through a range of possibilities. Rehearsal reduces the likelihood or magnitude of unpleasant surprises, gives us at least rough guidelines for action, and could help us get up to speed when the action starts. Rehearsal sensitizes us to cues associated with the different scenarios so noticing such a cue gives us a hint as to what should happen next. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that preliminary cues can be misleading, as when initially strong parallels between the Spanish and Swine flu epidemics broke

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down and they followed very different trajectories. Scenarios can help protect us from ―wild cards‖ that could invalidate our current expectations. Nicholas Taleb argues that many of the powerful forces that shape society are ―outliers‖ or qualify as ―black swans‖ in the sense that they were inconceivable before they were discovered, just as black swans were inconceivable to Englishman before they discovered these swans in Australia.23 Black swans - which include home computers, the Internet, and Google - are ―outliers‖ in the sense that nothing in the past could point convincingly to their existence. Because of black swans change proceeds by fits, starts, and jumps, rather than orderly trends. Taleb writes that since we seek order and coherence in the universe, we develop after the fact explanations that make black swans seem logical and predictable, perhaps forgetting that we are viewing events through the rearview mirror rather than the windshield of the car. What scenarios might be useful for SETI planning? This, of course, should be a group decision, but about ten years ago, at a workshop on the Societal Implications of Astrobiology at NASA-Ames Research Center, I presented four scenarios arranged along two dimensions. 24 One dimension or axis expressed the level of complexity of life form encountered, and the second axis expressed its proximity to Earth. Consistent with living systems theory and prevailing thoughts about cosmic evolution, I defined complexity in terms of consciousness, culture, and society.25,26 Under this paradigm grasses and plants, single-celled creatures, insects, worms, and small animals qualify as simple. Life forms that are capable of elaborate thought, are self-aware, gather together into large and intricate societies and rely heavily on symbols and technology are defined as complex. (Societies based on artificial intelligence fall into this category.) They are capable

of advanced technology and can indicate their presence over vast interstellar distances. The second dimension, proximity to Earth is much easier to describe: distal locations are external to our solar system while proximal locations are within. When we cross the two levels of complexity with two levels of proximity we have four scenarios titled Distant Dust, Microbes on Mars, ET Calling, and Space Visitors. The first two are associated with astrobiology, and the third, ET Calling, with SETI. The fourth scenario, Space Visitors, involves unequivocal evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence within our solar system. Examples include finding artifacts left on the Moon or a solar planet, sighting or intercepting transmissions from extraterrestrial probes within our solar system, discovering ET on the Internet, encounters with aliens, and so forth. Unlike the preceding scenarios, which are relatively constrained, this one involves almost endless possibilities and is the most open to imagination and fantasy. The confusion and emotionality associated with variants of this scenario helps account for its lack of prominence in scientific circles. Note that over time we may be confronted by more than one of these scenarios. Distal

Proximal

Complex ET Calling standard SETI scenario

Space Visitors artifacts and encounters

Simple

Microbes on Mars fossils, single cell organisms, plants grasses on Mars,

Distant Dust Conditions for life, precursors of life, biosignatures

Table 1: Detection Scenarios Based on Living System Complexity and Proximity

The unfolding of any of these detection scenarios would represent a great

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scientific discovery and could have profound effects upon us. Nonetheless, it should prove more challenging easing humanity through some of these scenarios (Space Visitors and ET Calling) than others (Microbes on Mars and Distant Dust). Each scenario has different implications for psychology, society, and culture. Given our current knowledge not all of these scenarios are equally probable and perhaps some are impossible, but thinking these through could help us become familiar with uncertainties and possibilities and reduce the risk of scary surprises. Scenario planning requires meetings, research teams, and other costly activities. Military planning groups do not have to worry about financial support for their efforts and corporate sponsors are happy to hire consultants that could help them face competition or annoying legislation. At present, SETI social science is not awash in money. Could serious and sustained scenario planning proceed nevertheless? Today, the Internet and its accompaniments make it possible to assemble ―virtual‖ teams in cyberspace. Whereas some of the enthusiasm and give and take of face-to-face meetings may be lost, virtual meetings make it possible to work around busy schedules and continuously update written records. Here a wiki - a multi-authored document that evolves on a Web site – may be of help. Participants write text, assess and edit each others contributions, raise questions and post comments. A successful wiki would most likely require a small cadre of dedicated enthusiasts to oversee and flesh out the scenarios, as well as a larger group of participants that brings multiple perspectives to bear, generates ideas, and evaluates progress. After sufficient development, the site could be opened to the public, who might not be able to alter the wiki but could send comments and suggestions to the editors.

A wiki is ―living‖ in the sense that it is continually evolving and updated. Unlike conferences, which typically involve a brief period of frenzied activity followed by a great silence, wikis permit sustained planning. They can be set aside for extended periods of time, and then work can resume. Unlike a single authored book, they encourage buy-in from many different participants. In comparison to both single authored books and conference proceedings they do not become dated as soon as they are released, and, once they are opened to the public, they are accessible and without cost. Wikis are not without problems, for example, initial enthusiasm for participation is not always matched by long, hard hours at the computer and not all participants agree that each contribution is for the better. Still, strategies are available for working around these problems, and for cashstrapped scholars, wikis provide an opportunity for low cost sustained collaborative efforts. CONCLUSIONS As we contemplate the philosophical, psychological, societal and cultural implications of SETI we should try to maintain an open mind, achieve a balance between imagination and reality, and remain aware that detection could occur at any time. We need to recognize when we are making assumptions, when we are dealing with facts, and when we are confronted by uncertainties. As much as possible, we should keep our biases under control. We should avoid denying possibilities on emotional rather than rational bases, over-relying on simplifying assumptions, and seeking confirmation of our hypothesis while ignoring inconvenient evidence. Also, as I pointed out at an earlier Congress, planning is a group rather than solo activity and we need to be aware that it will be shaped by group and organizational dynamics as well as psychological factors.27 Any agency -

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academic, governmental, or commercial, or not-for-profit – that is involved in the planning process will have to contend with both internal and external politics and culture. We have to remember that reactions to extraterrestrial life will vary depending on individual psychological, societal, and cultural variables. Reactions will depend, also, on the nature of ―the other‖ and the way that the scenario unfolds – for example, rapidly or slowly. And, because the target event could occur at any moment in history, scenarios will have to be updated now and then. Planning should not be the sole province of academics, no matter how varied and interdisciplinary the group. It is important to involve leaders who may have to make key decisions, and, if that is impossible, then their close advisors. At least, influential people should be aware that possibilities are being explored. That we may have reduced uncertainty for fellow academics will be of minor solace if presidents, generals, governors, spymasters, bishops, chief executive officers and other powerful people are caught by surprise. And, if governmental or military commissions or agencies are developing their own scenarios behind closed doors, ours that are developed in the open marketplace of ideas could offer useful counterpoints. REFERENCES 1. S. J. Dick (1996). The biological universe: The twentieth century extraterrestrial life debate and the limits of science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2. M. A. G. Michaud (2007). Contact with alien civilizations. New York: Copernicus. 3. Committee on Science and Astronautics. (1961). Proposed studies on the implications of peaceful space activities for human affairs. U.S. House of Representatives, Eighty-

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