2009 3rd Quarter Real Estate Market Report For Fluvanna County And Lake Monticello
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Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis 3rd Quarter 2009
Data compiled and presented by:
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed Sunday, October 18, 2009
86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434.589.5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com
We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .
The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however, is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted. The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License. This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.
creative commons
by attribution
no derivatives
We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected].
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Introduction Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that. This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local real estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best decisions for them. Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show you a true picture of the local real estate market.
Scope of this report The data in this report looks back at January-September of this year and compares it to the same time period in 2008. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the region. Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Total Sales By Area The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area for the 1st three quarters of 2009. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total. As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2008. For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume is 15% lower in 2009, compared with 2008. By area, Charlottesville has seen the largest drop-off in sales (-27%), and Greene and Albemarle Counties have seen the smallest change (-5%). Nelson and Fluvanna Counties have seen a -26%,and -25% change, respectively. The positive news is that all of the areas improved from the deficits that were suffered in the first 6 months of the year. It appears that significant gains were made in the 3rd quarter, which will be examined later. While there is certainly no expectation that the area will meet or exceed sales numbers from 2008, the 3rd quarter was a welcomed improvement over the first 6 months of the year.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Total Sales by Area 2,000 1,800
1,845
1,600 1,567
1,400 1,200 1,000 800
795
837
600 489
400 356
200 0
189
253
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
135
142
Greene
92
124
Nelson
Total
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during first have of 2009. In the previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible. Lake Monticello experienced a drop-off of 32% in total sales in 2009 compared to 2008. Homes outside of Lake Monticello experienced a 13% drop in sales volume. Homes outside Lake Monticello made gains in the 3rd quarter, while Lake Monticello was able to manage only a modest recovery during the 3rd quarter. It is interesting to note that Lake Monticello accounted for 58% of Fluvanna County’s sales in 2009, and accounted for 64% of sales in the County in 2008.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales 170 162
153 136 119 110
102 91
85 68
79
51 34 17 0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY
Lake Monticello
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the monthly-by-month totals from 2009 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month. The most encouraging aspect of this chart is that the area actually outpaced last year’s sales numbers for the months of July and August, and were only modestly lower in September. This fact allows us to understand why the area made up some of the tremendous losses earlier in the year. While the peak of the season occurred one month later in 2009, it was enough to make up for some of the very low sales that were experienced earlier in the year. What remains to be seen is if the gap can continue to be erased, or at least remain close, as the area moves into what is traditionally the slowest time of the entire year. It is hard to predict what will happen in the final quarter of 2009, since the end of 2008 was heavily influenced by the economic meltdown. While economic conditions are by no means ideal this year, it remains to be seen how sales will be affected by current economic conditions and the expiration of the first-time homebuyer’s tax credit.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month 296
300
296
260
263
285
260
225
207
188 150
212
184 166
128
179
197
139
164 131
113
140 117
134 90
101
75 72
38 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the information is limited to Fluvanna County (only) on the first chart, and to Lake Monticello (only) on the second chart. The sales-by-month results were mixed for Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello. Homes in Fluvanna County followed a trend similar to the rest of the Charlottesville area. While July was still a down month, improvements were made in August and September, which helped to buoy the overall sales numbers for the year. Lake Monticello, however, did not hold to the larger pattern. July sales at Lake Monticello were 53% lower in July of 2009. August sales only matched the number from 2008, and September saw another deficit, this time of 27%. Again, predicting the rest of the year is difficult. Anecdotally, we have seen quite a few closings in the first two weeks of October, but this no predictor for the rest of the year. There is little chance that either Fluvanna or Lake Monticello will make any gains on last year’s sales numbers. The best that can be expected is to remain steady for the rest of the year.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Fluvanna Sales by Month 50 42
42 34 32
33
30
29 27
26
25
26 26
26
26
21 24
24
18
19
22
17
17
12
15
8
0
9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Month 29
000
000
23 21 19
000 17
16 17
000
18
19
18
15
12 13
10
13
10
000
11
10
6
000
6 3
0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County (only), broken down by price range. This chart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also compares the price price range sales in 2009 and 2008. This chart shows us that the trend of increasing sales in the lower price ranges remains. Very few homes above $300,000 are selling in Fluvanna County. Conversely, sales in homes below $250,000 have increased significantly. In a later chart, we will see this trend underscored by the change in the median home price in Fluvanna County.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range 9
0-149,900
6 20 20
150,000-199,900 18
200,000-259,900
12 8
260,000-299,900
6 10
300,000-349,000
14 5
350,000-399,900
20 1
400,000-449,000
6 2
450,000-499,900
3 3
500,000-800,000
4
0 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
2
4
2009
6
8
10
12
2008
14
16
18
20
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers refer ONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2009 and 2008. As with the Fluvanna numbers on the previous chart, sales are obviously trending toward the lower end of the price ranges. In fact, during 2009 more sales have been below $199,000 than all other price ranges combined (56 homes $199K or lower, 53 others). The $450,000 to $499,000 price range has seen an increase this year, which is made up of waterfront homes, which will be examine later.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range 6
0-149,900
3 53
150,000-199,000
44 22
200,000-259,900
60 10
260,000-299,900
25 6
300,000-349,000
12 2
350,000-399,900
5 5
400,000-449,000 450,000-499,900
2 1 7 4 4
500,000-800,000 0 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
10
2009
20
30
40
2008
50
60 Source: CAAR MLS
Median Price by Area The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2009 is compared to 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY. The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore, considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market. In 2008, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area after the 3rd quarter was $277,980. In 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area after the 3rd quarter was $277,980 (-7%). Every area has experienced a drop in median price this year, with the exception of Nelson Couty, which remained even with last year. Lake Monticello experienced a 15% drop in median home price, which is exactly where Lake Monticello stood at the midpoint of the year. Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 17% drop in the median price, which is slightly better than the midpoint of the year.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Median Price by Area 400,000 350,000 315,000
300,000
300,000300,000
285,000 265,000 247,000
250,000 200,000
244,900
277,980 258,980
260,000265,000 230,000
202,900
195,000
150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Days on Market by Area The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares the average DOM, through September 30, in 2009 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only. DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower. The DOM numbers were very mixed across the areas, but the Charlottesville Area as a whole saw the average DOM drop 3 days compared to the same time frame in 2008. The difference has remained in the +/- 10 days range for most of the year. The difference between DOM in the area from 2008 to 2009 is not statistically significant. In fact, despite differences both higher and lower in the different areas, all of them remain very close to the numbers seen in 2008. The lack of a major change in the DOM can be seen as a good thing, as any sign of stability in the current market is a positive thing. Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others remain on the market for months, or even a year or more. It is, however, a positive sign that homes are spending less time on the market. Hopefully, this trend will hold as we move through the year. Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Days on Market by Area
0.000 161
5.714 139
1.429 114
7.143
124
120
124 115
112
103
113
112
115
102 95
2.857
8.571
4.286 0
Albemarle Charlottesville
Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2009, there were 317 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 143 of those were located in Lake Monticello. The good news is that we are not seeing huge increases in inventory numbers. For Fluvanna County as a whole, we remain very close to the numbers experienced in 2008. While it would be ideal to be experiencing lower numbers, inventory is a small victory, overall. Lake Monticello continues to see inventory far lower than in 2008. There is no reason to expect this trend to change any time in the near future. Much of the volatility in the market has already been worked out. We have included on the chart the 2008 numbers for the rest of the months in the year, just to give you an idea of what to expect going forward.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month* 395
400 380
372 354
360 343
340
358
380 392
392 380
392
360
376
377
Aug.
Sept.
379
374 359
367 354
327
320
327 317
300 280 260 240
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Jun.
Jul.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month* 200 186
190
187 183
182
185
186
180
175
168
157
163
163 157
150 140
174
169
170 160
175
149
147
143
153
150 145
130 120 110 100
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2009 and 2008. The “Fluvanna” column includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello. This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions, there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated. As of the midway point of the year, homeowners in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello were walking away with a slightly lower percentage of list price in 2009, compared to 2008. Each percentage point represents $1000 per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price, the final contract price was $192,000. As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and sellers should act accordingly.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage) 100 99 98 97
96.91
96.93
96
96.31 95.61
95 94 93 92 91 90
Fluvanna
Lake Monticello ONLY
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through March 31 in 2009 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold. 2009 has been a confounding year for the waterfront market. It was extremely slow for most of the year, but picked up in the 3rd quarter. It didn’t pick up enough to match the number of sales of 2008 (9 vs. 15), but the homes that have sold have been for a higher average price ($511,528 vs. $467,500). Waterfront inventory continues to be very high, however, and the same is true for DOM for waterfront homes. Demand for waterfront homes doesn’t seem to be down, as we are showing many homes to potential waterfront buyers. We already know there is no lack of supply for waterfront homes. So, it would appear that the issue with the waterfront market is that buyers are not satisfied with either the price or condition of the homes in the supply. Until that disconnect is corrected, it stands to reason that waterfront sales will continue to lag behind the pace set last year.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics* 520,000 511,528
468,000
470,000
475,000
467,500
416,000 364,000 312,000 260,000 208,000 156,000 104,000 52,000 0
Median Price
2009
Average Price
2008
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 9 sales in 2009, 15 sales in 2008 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Source: CAAR MLS
Conclusion In our last market report, we said that the 3rd quarter numbers would be an indication of whether or not the market has achieved something that could be called “stability.” Now that we have made it through the 3rd quarter, it does appear that 2009 might be the year that we see the bleeding stop. In the area overall, numbers in the 3rd quarter were very close to the numbers seen in 2008. This just might indicate that we are reaching a more stable point in the market. It is important to note that a “recovery” DOES NOT mean that we should expect to see increasing sales numbers or appreciation going forward. Right now, “recovery” simply means that numbers will stop trending downward. Everything suggests that both sales numbers and median price will be lower in 2009 compared to 2008. The encouraging thing is to note that the numbers have been doing better over the last few months. It won’t be until the end of year when we can see if numbers continue to hold and the downward trend is ended. We certainly don’t expect the trend to be reversed in any significant way. Buyers and sellers, both, would do well to adjust themselves to the reality of the current market, and expect it to remain this way for the foreseeable future. As we head into the final quarter of 2009, one factor to keep in mind is the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit. If the expiration is going to have a negative impact on sales, it should be evident in comparing November/December numbers to 2008. The impact of the tax credit thus far is difficult to gauge without knowing what happens when it goes away. Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and good information provides the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals. Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Thank you We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected]. It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.
Strong Team REALTORS 86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434-589-5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Data compiled and presented by:
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed Sunday, October 18, 2009
86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434.589.5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com
We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .
The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however, is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted. The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License. This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.
creative commons
by attribution
no derivatives
We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected].
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Introduction Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that. This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local real estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best decisions for them. Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show you a true picture of the local real estate market.
Scope of this report The data in this report looks back at January-September of this year and compares it to the same time period in 2008. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the region. Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Total Sales By Area The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area for the 1st three quarters of 2009. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total. As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2008. For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume is 15% lower in 2009, compared with 2008. By area, Charlottesville has seen the largest drop-off in sales (-27%), and Greene and Albemarle Counties have seen the smallest change (-5%). Nelson and Fluvanna Counties have seen a -26%,and -25% change, respectively. The positive news is that all of the areas improved from the deficits that were suffered in the first 6 months of the year. It appears that significant gains were made in the 3rd quarter, which will be examined later. While there is certainly no expectation that the area will meet or exceed sales numbers from 2008, the 3rd quarter was a welcomed improvement over the first 6 months of the year.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Total Sales by Area 2,000 1,800
1,845
1,600 1,567
1,400 1,200 1,000 800
795
837
600 489
400 356
200 0
189
253
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
135
142
Greene
92
124
Nelson
Total
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during first have of 2009. In the previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible. Lake Monticello experienced a drop-off of 32% in total sales in 2009 compared to 2008. Homes outside of Lake Monticello experienced a 13% drop in sales volume. Homes outside Lake Monticello made gains in the 3rd quarter, while Lake Monticello was able to manage only a modest recovery during the 3rd quarter. It is interesting to note that Lake Monticello accounted for 58% of Fluvanna County’s sales in 2009, and accounted for 64% of sales in the County in 2008.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales 170 162
153 136 119 110
102 91
85 68
79
51 34 17 0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY
Lake Monticello
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the monthly-by-month totals from 2009 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month. The most encouraging aspect of this chart is that the area actually outpaced last year’s sales numbers for the months of July and August, and were only modestly lower in September. This fact allows us to understand why the area made up some of the tremendous losses earlier in the year. While the peak of the season occurred one month later in 2009, it was enough to make up for some of the very low sales that were experienced earlier in the year. What remains to be seen is if the gap can continue to be erased, or at least remain close, as the area moves into what is traditionally the slowest time of the entire year. It is hard to predict what will happen in the final quarter of 2009, since the end of 2008 was heavily influenced by the economic meltdown. While economic conditions are by no means ideal this year, it remains to be seen how sales will be affected by current economic conditions and the expiration of the first-time homebuyer’s tax credit.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month 296
300
296
260
263
285
260
225
207
188 150
212
184 166
128
179
197
139
164 131
113
140 117
134 90
101
75 72
38 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the information is limited to Fluvanna County (only) on the first chart, and to Lake Monticello (only) on the second chart. The sales-by-month results were mixed for Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello. Homes in Fluvanna County followed a trend similar to the rest of the Charlottesville area. While July was still a down month, improvements were made in August and September, which helped to buoy the overall sales numbers for the year. Lake Monticello, however, did not hold to the larger pattern. July sales at Lake Monticello were 53% lower in July of 2009. August sales only matched the number from 2008, and September saw another deficit, this time of 27%. Again, predicting the rest of the year is difficult. Anecdotally, we have seen quite a few closings in the first two weeks of October, but this no predictor for the rest of the year. There is little chance that either Fluvanna or Lake Monticello will make any gains on last year’s sales numbers. The best that can be expected is to remain steady for the rest of the year.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Fluvanna Sales by Month 50 42
42 34 32
33
30
29 27
26
25
26 26
26
26
21 24
24
18
19
22
17
17
12
15
8
0
9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Month 29
000
000
23 21 19
000 17
16 17
000
18
19
18
15
12 13
10
13
10
000
11
10
6
000
6 3
0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County (only), broken down by price range. This chart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also compares the price price range sales in 2009 and 2008. This chart shows us that the trend of increasing sales in the lower price ranges remains. Very few homes above $300,000 are selling in Fluvanna County. Conversely, sales in homes below $250,000 have increased significantly. In a later chart, we will see this trend underscored by the change in the median home price in Fluvanna County.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range 9
0-149,900
6 20 20
150,000-199,900 18
200,000-259,900
12 8
260,000-299,900
6 10
300,000-349,000
14 5
350,000-399,900
20 1
400,000-449,000
6 2
450,000-499,900
3 3
500,000-800,000
4
0 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
2
4
2009
6
8
10
12
2008
14
16
18
20
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers refer ONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2009 and 2008. As with the Fluvanna numbers on the previous chart, sales are obviously trending toward the lower end of the price ranges. In fact, during 2009 more sales have been below $199,000 than all other price ranges combined (56 homes $199K or lower, 53 others). The $450,000 to $499,000 price range has seen an increase this year, which is made up of waterfront homes, which will be examine later.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range 6
0-149,900
3 53
150,000-199,000
44 22
200,000-259,900
60 10
260,000-299,900
25 6
300,000-349,000
12 2
350,000-399,900
5 5
400,000-449,000 450,000-499,900
2 1 7 4 4
500,000-800,000 0 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
10
2009
20
30
40
2008
50
60 Source: CAAR MLS
Median Price by Area The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2009 is compared to 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY. The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore, considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market. In 2008, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area after the 3rd quarter was $277,980. In 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area after the 3rd quarter was $277,980 (-7%). Every area has experienced a drop in median price this year, with the exception of Nelson Couty, which remained even with last year. Lake Monticello experienced a 15% drop in median home price, which is exactly where Lake Monticello stood at the midpoint of the year. Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 17% drop in the median price, which is slightly better than the midpoint of the year.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Median Price by Area 400,000 350,000 315,000
300,000
300,000300,000
285,000 265,000 247,000
250,000 200,000
244,900
277,980 258,980
260,000265,000 230,000
202,900
195,000
150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Days on Market by Area The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares the average DOM, through September 30, in 2009 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only. DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower. The DOM numbers were very mixed across the areas, but the Charlottesville Area as a whole saw the average DOM drop 3 days compared to the same time frame in 2008. The difference has remained in the +/- 10 days range for most of the year. The difference between DOM in the area from 2008 to 2009 is not statistically significant. In fact, despite differences both higher and lower in the different areas, all of them remain very close to the numbers seen in 2008. The lack of a major change in the DOM can be seen as a good thing, as any sign of stability in the current market is a positive thing. Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others remain on the market for months, or even a year or more. It is, however, a positive sign that homes are spending less time on the market. Hopefully, this trend will hold as we move through the year. Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Days on Market by Area
0.000 161
5.714 139
1.429 114
7.143
124
120
124 115
112
103
113
112
115
102 95
2.857
8.571
4.286 0
Albemarle Charlottesville
Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2009, there were 317 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 143 of those were located in Lake Monticello. The good news is that we are not seeing huge increases in inventory numbers. For Fluvanna County as a whole, we remain very close to the numbers experienced in 2008. While it would be ideal to be experiencing lower numbers, inventory is a small victory, overall. Lake Monticello continues to see inventory far lower than in 2008. There is no reason to expect this trend to change any time in the near future. Much of the volatility in the market has already been worked out. We have included on the chart the 2008 numbers for the rest of the months in the year, just to give you an idea of what to expect going forward.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month* 395
400 380
372 354
360 343
340
358
380 392
392 380
392
360
376
377
Aug.
Sept.
379
374 359
367 354
327
320
327 317
300 280 260 240
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Jun.
Jul.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month* 200 186
190
187 183
182
185
186
180
175
168
157
163
163 157
150 140
174
169
170 160
175
149
147
143
153
150 145
130 120 110 100
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2009 and 2008. The “Fluvanna” column includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello. This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions, there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated. As of the midway point of the year, homeowners in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello were walking away with a slightly lower percentage of list price in 2009, compared to 2008. Each percentage point represents $1000 per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price, the final contract price was $192,000. As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and sellers should act accordingly.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage) 100 99 98 97
96.91
96.93
96
96.31 95.61
95 94 93 92 91 90
Fluvanna
Lake Monticello ONLY
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through March 31 in 2009 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold. 2009 has been a confounding year for the waterfront market. It was extremely slow for most of the year, but picked up in the 3rd quarter. It didn’t pick up enough to match the number of sales of 2008 (9 vs. 15), but the homes that have sold have been for a higher average price ($511,528 vs. $467,500). Waterfront inventory continues to be very high, however, and the same is true for DOM for waterfront homes. Demand for waterfront homes doesn’t seem to be down, as we are showing many homes to potential waterfront buyers. We already know there is no lack of supply for waterfront homes. So, it would appear that the issue with the waterfront market is that buyers are not satisfied with either the price or condition of the homes in the supply. Until that disconnect is corrected, it stands to reason that waterfront sales will continue to lag behind the pace set last year.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics* 520,000 511,528
468,000
470,000
475,000
467,500
416,000 364,000 312,000 260,000 208,000 156,000 104,000 52,000 0
Median Price
2009
Average Price
2008
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 9 sales in 2009, 15 sales in 2008 Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Source: CAAR MLS
Conclusion In our last market report, we said that the 3rd quarter numbers would be an indication of whether or not the market has achieved something that could be called “stability.” Now that we have made it through the 3rd quarter, it does appear that 2009 might be the year that we see the bleeding stop. In the area overall, numbers in the 3rd quarter were very close to the numbers seen in 2008. This just might indicate that we are reaching a more stable point in the market. It is important to note that a “recovery” DOES NOT mean that we should expect to see increasing sales numbers or appreciation going forward. Right now, “recovery” simply means that numbers will stop trending downward. Everything suggests that both sales numbers and median price will be lower in 2009 compared to 2008. The encouraging thing is to note that the numbers have been doing better over the last few months. It won’t be until the end of year when we can see if numbers continue to hold and the downward trend is ended. We certainly don’t expect the trend to be reversed in any significant way. Buyers and sellers, both, would do well to adjust themselves to the reality of the current market, and expect it to remain this way for the foreseeable future. As we head into the final quarter of 2009, one factor to keep in mind is the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit. If the expiration is going to have a negative impact on sales, it should be evident in comparing November/December numbers to 2008. The impact of the tax credit thus far is difficult to gauge without knowing what happens when it goes away. Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and good information provides the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals. Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Thank you We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected]. It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.
Strong Team REALTORS 86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434-589-5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com Strong Team REALTORS
Sunday, October 18, 2009
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