2009 Mid-year Real Estate Market Report For Fluvanna County And Lake Monticello
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Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis Mid-year 2009
Data compiled and presented by:
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed
86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434.589.5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com
We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .
The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however, is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted. The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License. This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.
creative commons
by attribution
no derivatives
We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected].
Strong Team REALTORS
Introduction Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that. This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local real estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best decisions for them. Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show you a true picture of the local real estate market.
Scope of this report The data in this report looks back at the 1st half of 2009 (Jan.-Jun.) and compares it to the same time period in 2008. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the region. Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales By Area The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area for the 1st half of 2009. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total. As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2008. For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume is 25% lower in 2009, compared with 2008. By area, Nelson County has seen the largest drop-off in sales (-38%), and Albemarle has seen the smallest change (-14%). Charlottesville, Fluvanna, and Greene Counties have seen a -33%, -34%, and -23% change, respectively. The positive news is that all of the areas improved from the deficits that were suffered in the first 3 months of the year. As we noted in our previous analysis of the first quarter of 2009, it was one of the worst ever. The fact that there was improvement over the last three months is a welcomed sign. While the area is certainly not going to match or surpass the numbers of 2008, at least there were signs of improvement.
Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales by Area 1,200 1,174
1,080 960 886
840 720 600 480
513 439
360
310
240 208
120 0
176 116
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
75
98
Greene
48
77
Nelson
Total
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during first have of 2009. In the previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible. Lake Monticello experienced a drop-off of 36% in total sales in 2009 compared to 2008. Homes outside of Lake Monticello experienced a 31% drop in sales volume. It is interesting to note that Lake Monticello accounted for 58% of Fluvanna County’s sales in 2009, and accounted for 54% of sales in the County in 2008.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales 110 105
99 88 77 71
66
67
55 44
49
33 22 11 0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY
Lake Monticello
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the monthly-by-month totals from 2009 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month. The interesting piece of data in this chart is that sales were almost flat from March to April. Traditionally, March/April marks the beginning of the spring market. Sales quickly recovered from the slow start to the season, however, showing a major jump from April to May. The gap in year-over-year sales closed from -27% in April to 13% in June. While the entire area has been hampered by the start to the year, it is good to see that two lines are trending in the same fashion. 2008 showed a tremendous fall-off in sales from July to August. It will be very interesting to see if the same thing happens in 2009. There has historically been a fall in sales in August, but it was especially significant in 2008. We can only hope that it will be less so in 2009.
Strong Team REALTORS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month 295
300
282 255
263
256
225
205 184
188 150
194
166
128
178
140
139 132
113
117
134 90
100
75 70
38 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the information is limited to Fluvanna County (only) on the first chart, and to Lake Monticello (only) on the second chart. In our 1st Quarter report we remarked that both Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello experienced exceptionally good sales volumes in March. Everyone was hoping this trend would continue in the 2nd Quarter of the year. It did not. In fact, while April did continue the positive trend, the tremendous deficits in May and June wiped out the gains that had been made in the prior months. Rather than seeing the traditional peak in sales in June, sales fell off significantly in May, and recovered only slightly in June, but still did not surpass the numbers in March and April. May sales volume was down 50% and 52% in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello, respectively. This is a significant drop. While sales recovered slightly in June, volume remained down 40% in Fluvanna County and 55% in Lake Monticello for the month. In looking at the chart, it is easy to see that 2009 did not produce the typical selling season in Fluvanna or Lake Monticello. There is no easy explanation for this. In examining the monthly sales volumes for the other areas (not pictured) all of the areas had a flat or slightly decreasing April and/or May. No area saw a drop as significant as the one experienced in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. While this data is alarming, our experience has been that sales seem to have picked up a bit in July, so it remains to be seen if that will be reflected in the overall numbers. Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Sales by Month 50 42
42 34 32
33
30
29 27
26
25
25 26
25
24
18
17
20
19
17
12
15
8
0
9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Month 29
000
000
23 21
000 16 17
000
18
17
18
18 14
12 13
10
10
000 10 6
000
6 3
0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County (only), broken down by price range. This chart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also compares the price price range sales in 2009 and 2008. This chart shows us that the trend of increasing sales in the lower price ranges remains. Very few homes above $300,000 are selling in Fluvanna County. Conversely, sales in homes below $250,000 have increased significantly.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range 7
0-149,900
5 14
150,000-199,900
19 9
200,000-249,900
4 6
250,000-299,900
8 8
300,000-349,000
10 3
350,000-399,900 400,000-449,000
17 0 4 1
450,000-499,900
3 3
500,000-800,000
4
0 Strong Team REALTORS
2
4
2009
6
8
10
12
2008
14
16
18
20
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers refer ONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2009 and 2008. As with the Fluvanna numbers on the previous chart, sales are obviously trending toward the lower end of the price ranges. In fact, the only price range that is doing better than it was in 2008 is the $199,000 and lower price range. Our anecdotal experience was suggesting this to be the case, but the data certainly validates that experience.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range 3
0-149,900
2 33
150,000-199,000
27 16
200,000-249,900
36 9
250,000-299,900
31 3
300,000-349,000
10 1
350,000-399,900
3 4
400,000-449,000 450,000-499,900
1 0 6 2 2
500,000-800,000 0 Strong Team REALTORS
7
2009
13
20
27
2008
33
40 Source: CAAR MLS
Median Price by Area The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2009 is compared to 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY. The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore, considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market. In 2008, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the midway point of the year was $276,897. In 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the midway point of the year was $251,694 (-9%). Every area has experienced a drop in median price this year. The median price has actually fallen throughout the beginning of the year. At the end of the 1st Quarter, the median price was only 4% lower, compared to 2008. Lake Monticello experienced a 15% drop in median home price, which is slightly better than the 1st Quarter. Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 20% drop in the median price, which is slightly worse than the 1st Quarter.
Strong Team REALTORS
Median Price by Area 400,000 350,000 300,000
310,733
300,000 282,500
281,720
250,000
265,000 246,750
250,000
276,897
258,750 247,000
251,694 230,000
200,000
200,500
195,000
150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Days on Market by Area The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares the average DOM, through March 31, in 2009 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only. DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower. The DOM numbers were very mixed across the areas, but the Charlottesville Area as a whole saw the average DOM for Q1 drop 4 days compared to Q1 2008. This is definitely a positive sign, but we will have to wait to see if the trend continues. The difference between DOM in the area from 2008 to 2009 is not statistically significant. In fact, despite differences both higher and lower in the different areas, all of them remain very close to the numbers seen in 2008. The lack of a major change in the DOM can be seen as a good thing, as any sign of stability in the current market is a positive thing. Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others remain on the market for months, or even a year or more. It is, however, a positive sign that homes are spending less time on the market. Hopefully, this trend will hold as we move through the year. Strong Team REALTORS
Days on Market by Area
0.000 172 161
4.286
8.571
2.857
132
108
134
133
126
121
114
115
119
121
92 84
7.143
1.429
5.714 0
Albemarle Charlottesville
Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2009, there were 315 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 143 of those were located in Lake Monticello. The good news is that we are not seeing huge increases in inventory numbers. For Fluvanna County as a whole, we remain very close to the numbers experienced in 2008. While it would be ideal to be experiencing lower numbers, given the fact that sales numbers in the County were so low in May and June, holding inventory is a small victory, overall. Lake Monticello continues to see inventory far lower than in 2008. While inventory did increase in May and June, this is due largely to the fact that sales numbers for those months were so low. The fact that the market was able to weather that storm without big increases in inventory is a good thing. We have included on the chart the 2008 numbers for the rest of the months in the year, just to give you an idea of what to expect going forward.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month* 394
400 379 393
380
379
378
371
360
353 342
340
391
357
373
359
357
366 351
326
320
323 315
300 280 260 240
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month* 200 190
182
186
187
183
185
186
180
175
174
169
170 160
175
168
157 162
150 140
149 143
147
150 145
130 120 110 100
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2009 and 2008. The “Fluvanna” column includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello. This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions, there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated. As of the midway point of the year, homeowners in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello were walking away with a slightly lower percentage of list price in 2009, compared to 2008. Each percentage point represents $1000 per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price, the final contract price was $192,000. As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and sellers should act accordingly.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage) 100 99 98 97 96.79
97.08 96.55
96
96.08
95 94 93 92 91 90
Fluvanna
Lake Monticello ONLY
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through March 31 in 2009 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold. 2009 has not been kind to waterfront homeowners. As of right now, waterfront inventory is at an all-time hight. This is due to the fact that there were only 3 waterfront sales in the first 6 months of 2009. Median and Average sales prices reflect the struggles of the waterfront market, both being down significantly compared to 2008. Demand for waterfront homes doesn’t seem to be down, as we are showing many homes to potential waterfront buyers. We already know there is no lack of supply for waterfront homes. So, it would appear that the issue with the waterfront market is that buyers are not satisfied with either the price or condition of the homes in the supply. Until that disconnect is corrected, it stands to reason that waterfront sales will continue to struggle.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics* 490,000 481,944
475,000
441,000 428,000
423,250
392,000 343,000 294,000 245,000 196,000 147,000 98,000 49,000 0
Median Price
2009
Average Price
2008
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 3 sales in 2009, 8 sales in 2008 Strong Team REALTORS
Source: CAAR MLS
Conclusion The first two months of 2009 were two of the worst months we have ever seen. The numbers bear that out. While everyone was hopeful that those months would be erased with a strong selling season, such a season never emerged in the 2nd Quarter. Quite to the contrary, May and June were almost as bad as the January and February numbers, relative to the same months in 2008. One might think that this fact, coupled with a falling median price, is cause to cry that the sky is falling. That would be an overreaction. The fact is that market correction is a necessary thing. The only way that the market is going to experience stability is for prices to find a level at which supply and demand meet. The market is oblivious to our desire for prices to climb higher. Reality might be harsh in the short term, but this short term pain is necessary for long-term stability. One sign of possible stability will be the numbers in the 3rd quarter. If those numbers show a bit of a recovery in sales, then it would indicate that we are reaching a more stable market. Right now, with the selling season behind us, we can only hope and watch for a relatively normal 3rd quarter. If that is the case, then we could also reasonably expect the traditional sales trends to return in 2010. Right now, it seems as if we may look back on 2009 and call it the bottom of the downturn. The important thing to remember is that “recovery” doesn’t mean wild appreciation. The best that can be expected from a “recovery” is some measure of price and sales stability. That might be achievable in 2009. Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and good information provided the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals. Strong Team REALTORS
Thank you We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected]. It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.
Strong Team REALTORS 86 Joshua Lane Palmyra, VA 22963 434-589-5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com Strong Team REALTORS
Data compiled and presented by:
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed
86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434.589.5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com
We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .
The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however, is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted. The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License. This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.
creative commons
by attribution
no derivatives
We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected].
Strong Team REALTORS
Introduction Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that. This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local real estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best decisions for them. Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show you a true picture of the local real estate market.
Scope of this report The data in this report looks back at the 1st half of 2009 (Jan.-Jun.) and compares it to the same time period in 2008. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the region. Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales By Area The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area for the 1st half of 2009. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total. As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2008. For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume is 25% lower in 2009, compared with 2008. By area, Nelson County has seen the largest drop-off in sales (-38%), and Albemarle has seen the smallest change (-14%). Charlottesville, Fluvanna, and Greene Counties have seen a -33%, -34%, and -23% change, respectively. The positive news is that all of the areas improved from the deficits that were suffered in the first 3 months of the year. As we noted in our previous analysis of the first quarter of 2009, it was one of the worst ever. The fact that there was improvement over the last three months is a welcomed sign. While the area is certainly not going to match or surpass the numbers of 2008, at least there were signs of improvement.
Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales by Area 1,200 1,174
1,080 960 886
840 720 600 480
513 439
360
310
240 208
120 0
176 116
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
75
98
Greene
48
77
Nelson
Total
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during first have of 2009. In the previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible. Lake Monticello experienced a drop-off of 36% in total sales in 2009 compared to 2008. Homes outside of Lake Monticello experienced a 31% drop in sales volume. It is interesting to note that Lake Monticello accounted for 58% of Fluvanna County’s sales in 2009, and accounted for 54% of sales in the County in 2008.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales 110 105
99 88 77 71
66
67
55 44
49
33 22 11 0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY
Lake Monticello
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the monthly-by-month totals from 2009 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month. The interesting piece of data in this chart is that sales were almost flat from March to April. Traditionally, March/April marks the beginning of the spring market. Sales quickly recovered from the slow start to the season, however, showing a major jump from April to May. The gap in year-over-year sales closed from -27% in April to 13% in June. While the entire area has been hampered by the start to the year, it is good to see that two lines are trending in the same fashion. 2008 showed a tremendous fall-off in sales from July to August. It will be very interesting to see if the same thing happens in 2009. There has historically been a fall in sales in August, but it was especially significant in 2008. We can only hope that it will be less so in 2009.
Strong Team REALTORS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month 295
300
282 255
263
256
225
205 184
188 150
194
166
128
178
140
139 132
113
117
134 90
100
75 70
38 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the information is limited to Fluvanna County (only) on the first chart, and to Lake Monticello (only) on the second chart. In our 1st Quarter report we remarked that both Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello experienced exceptionally good sales volumes in March. Everyone was hoping this trend would continue in the 2nd Quarter of the year. It did not. In fact, while April did continue the positive trend, the tremendous deficits in May and June wiped out the gains that had been made in the prior months. Rather than seeing the traditional peak in sales in June, sales fell off significantly in May, and recovered only slightly in June, but still did not surpass the numbers in March and April. May sales volume was down 50% and 52% in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello, respectively. This is a significant drop. While sales recovered slightly in June, volume remained down 40% in Fluvanna County and 55% in Lake Monticello for the month. In looking at the chart, it is easy to see that 2009 did not produce the typical selling season in Fluvanna or Lake Monticello. There is no easy explanation for this. In examining the monthly sales volumes for the other areas (not pictured) all of the areas had a flat or slightly decreasing April and/or May. No area saw a drop as significant as the one experienced in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. While this data is alarming, our experience has been that sales seem to have picked up a bit in July, so it remains to be seen if that will be reflected in the overall numbers. Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Sales by Month 50 42
42 34 32
33
30
29 27
26
25
25 26
25
24
18
17
20
19
17
12
15
8
0
9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Month 29
000
000
23 21
000 16 17
000
18
17
18
18 14
12 13
10
10
000 10 6
000
6 3
0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County (only), broken down by price range. This chart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also compares the price price range sales in 2009 and 2008. This chart shows us that the trend of increasing sales in the lower price ranges remains. Very few homes above $300,000 are selling in Fluvanna County. Conversely, sales in homes below $250,000 have increased significantly.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range 7
0-149,900
5 14
150,000-199,900
19 9
200,000-249,900
4 6
250,000-299,900
8 8
300,000-349,000
10 3
350,000-399,900 400,000-449,000
17 0 4 1
450,000-499,900
3 3
500,000-800,000
4
0 Strong Team REALTORS
2
4
2009
6
8
10
12
2008
14
16
18
20
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers refer ONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2009 and 2008. As with the Fluvanna numbers on the previous chart, sales are obviously trending toward the lower end of the price ranges. In fact, the only price range that is doing better than it was in 2008 is the $199,000 and lower price range. Our anecdotal experience was suggesting this to be the case, but the data certainly validates that experience.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range 3
0-149,900
2 33
150,000-199,000
27 16
200,000-249,900
36 9
250,000-299,900
31 3
300,000-349,000
10 1
350,000-399,900
3 4
400,000-449,000 450,000-499,900
1 0 6 2 2
500,000-800,000 0 Strong Team REALTORS
7
2009
13
20
27
2008
33
40 Source: CAAR MLS
Median Price by Area The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2009 is compared to 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY. The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore, considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market. In 2008, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the midway point of the year was $276,897. In 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the midway point of the year was $251,694 (-9%). Every area has experienced a drop in median price this year. The median price has actually fallen throughout the beginning of the year. At the end of the 1st Quarter, the median price was only 4% lower, compared to 2008. Lake Monticello experienced a 15% drop in median home price, which is slightly better than the 1st Quarter. Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 20% drop in the median price, which is slightly worse than the 1st Quarter.
Strong Team REALTORS
Median Price by Area 400,000 350,000 300,000
310,733
300,000 282,500
281,720
250,000
265,000 246,750
250,000
276,897
258,750 247,000
251,694 230,000
200,000
200,500
195,000
150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Days on Market by Area The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares the average DOM, through March 31, in 2009 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only. DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower. The DOM numbers were very mixed across the areas, but the Charlottesville Area as a whole saw the average DOM for Q1 drop 4 days compared to Q1 2008. This is definitely a positive sign, but we will have to wait to see if the trend continues. The difference between DOM in the area from 2008 to 2009 is not statistically significant. In fact, despite differences both higher and lower in the different areas, all of them remain very close to the numbers seen in 2008. The lack of a major change in the DOM can be seen as a good thing, as any sign of stability in the current market is a positive thing. Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others remain on the market for months, or even a year or more. It is, however, a positive sign that homes are spending less time on the market. Hopefully, this trend will hold as we move through the year. Strong Team REALTORS
Days on Market by Area
0.000 172 161
4.286
8.571
2.857
132
108
134
133
126
121
114
115
119
121
92 84
7.143
1.429
5.714 0
Albemarle Charlottesville
Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2009, there were 315 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 143 of those were located in Lake Monticello. The good news is that we are not seeing huge increases in inventory numbers. For Fluvanna County as a whole, we remain very close to the numbers experienced in 2008. While it would be ideal to be experiencing lower numbers, given the fact that sales numbers in the County were so low in May and June, holding inventory is a small victory, overall. Lake Monticello continues to see inventory far lower than in 2008. While inventory did increase in May and June, this is due largely to the fact that sales numbers for those months were so low. The fact that the market was able to weather that storm without big increases in inventory is a good thing. We have included on the chart the 2008 numbers for the rest of the months in the year, just to give you an idea of what to expect going forward.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month* 394
400 379 393
380
379
378
371
360
353 342
340
391
357
373
359
357
366 351
326
320
323 315
300 280 260 240
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month* 200 190
182
186
187
183
185
186
180
175
174
169
170 160
175
168
157 162
150 140
149 143
147
150 145
130 120 110 100
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2009 and 2008. The “Fluvanna” column includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello. This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions, there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated. As of the midway point of the year, homeowners in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello were walking away with a slightly lower percentage of list price in 2009, compared to 2008. Each percentage point represents $1000 per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price, the final contract price was $192,000. As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and sellers should act accordingly.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage) 100 99 98 97 96.79
97.08 96.55
96
96.08
95 94 93 92 91 90
Fluvanna
Lake Monticello ONLY
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through March 31 in 2009 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold. 2009 has not been kind to waterfront homeowners. As of right now, waterfront inventory is at an all-time hight. This is due to the fact that there were only 3 waterfront sales in the first 6 months of 2009. Median and Average sales prices reflect the struggles of the waterfront market, both being down significantly compared to 2008. Demand for waterfront homes doesn’t seem to be down, as we are showing many homes to potential waterfront buyers. We already know there is no lack of supply for waterfront homes. So, it would appear that the issue with the waterfront market is that buyers are not satisfied with either the price or condition of the homes in the supply. Until that disconnect is corrected, it stands to reason that waterfront sales will continue to struggle.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics* 490,000 481,944
475,000
441,000 428,000
423,250
392,000 343,000 294,000 245,000 196,000 147,000 98,000 49,000 0
Median Price
2009
Average Price
2008
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 3 sales in 2009, 8 sales in 2008 Strong Team REALTORS
Source: CAAR MLS
Conclusion The first two months of 2009 were two of the worst months we have ever seen. The numbers bear that out. While everyone was hopeful that those months would be erased with a strong selling season, such a season never emerged in the 2nd Quarter. Quite to the contrary, May and June were almost as bad as the January and February numbers, relative to the same months in 2008. One might think that this fact, coupled with a falling median price, is cause to cry that the sky is falling. That would be an overreaction. The fact is that market correction is a necessary thing. The only way that the market is going to experience stability is for prices to find a level at which supply and demand meet. The market is oblivious to our desire for prices to climb higher. Reality might be harsh in the short term, but this short term pain is necessary for long-term stability. One sign of possible stability will be the numbers in the 3rd quarter. If those numbers show a bit of a recovery in sales, then it would indicate that we are reaching a more stable market. Right now, with the selling season behind us, we can only hope and watch for a relatively normal 3rd quarter. If that is the case, then we could also reasonably expect the traditional sales trends to return in 2010. Right now, it seems as if we may look back on 2009 and call it the bottom of the downturn. The important thing to remember is that “recovery” doesn’t mean wild appreciation. The best that can be expected from a “recovery” is some measure of price and sales stability. That might be achievable in 2009. Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and good information provided the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals. Strong Team REALTORS
Thank you We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected]. It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.
Strong Team REALTORS 86 Joshua Lane Palmyra, VA 22963 434-589-5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com Strong Team REALTORS
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