Strong Team Realtors Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Q3 Market Report
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Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis
Data compiled and presented by:
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed
86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434.589.5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com
We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .
The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however, is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted. The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License. This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.
creative commons
by attribution
no derivatives
We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected].
Strong Team REALTORS
Introduction Welcome to the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that. This is merely the first of many regular reports we will release that will contain the vital data about the local real estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best decisions for them. Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show you a true picture of the local real estate market.
Scope of this report The data in this report looks back at the first 9 months of 2008 and compares it to the same time frame during 2007. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the region.
Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales By Area The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area through September 30th. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total. As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2007. For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume is 23% lower in 2008, compared with 2007. By area, Albemarle has seen the largest drop-off in sales (-31%), and the City of Charlottesville has seen the smallest change (-7%). Fluvanna, Greene, and Nelson Counties have seen a -27%, -13%, and -14% change, respectively. There is no doubting the fact that there are simply less homes being sold in the Charlottesville Area in 2008 compared to 2007. This does not mean that homes are not selling. It just means that there is greater competition for buyers among homes that are on the market. For buyers, there are more homes from which to choose. Later in the report, we will take a look at inventory and Days on Market statistics, which will give a more complete picture of market competition.
Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales by Area (through Sept. 30) 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,352
2,100 1,800
1,809
1,500 1,200
1,190
900 820
600 515
300 0
477 344
250
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
160
139
Greene
143
123
Nelson
Total
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello. In the previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible. Lake Monticello has experienced a drop-off of 29% in total sales in 2008 compared to 2007. The decrease is slightly less among the other homes in Fluvanna, coming in 24% lower. It is interesting to note that Lake Monticello accounted for 64% of Fluvanna County’s sales in 2007, and accounts for 65% of sales in the County in 2008.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales (through Sept. 30) 300 270 240 225
210 180 150 120 90
160
119 90
60 30 0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY
Lake Monticello
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the monthly-by-month totals from 2007 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month. It is obvious from the chart that the idea of the “Spring Market” is no myth. Sales trend upwards from January through July, and then begin to fall as we head towards the end of the year. Perhaps the most important piece of information we can take from this chart is the fact that in the month of September, the monthly sales totals were almost identical in 2008 vs. 2007 (169 vs. 170). Of course, this is only one month, but if we see this continue, it might indicate that we are seeing a stabilization of the market overall, as least as far as the number of sales is concerned. We simply won’t know for a few more months if this is an isolated occurrence, or a real trend. We have included the stats for the last months of 2007, in order to give you an idea of what we might be able to expect from sales.
Strong Team REALTORS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month 400
374 342
350
321
316
300 262
295
246
250
278 252
200
169 181
150
162
169
165 127
183
170
204
152
100
202
138
50 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna County Sales by Month The following chart shows the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the information is limited only to Fluvanna County. While this chart does not show Lake Monticello by itself, sales at the Lake usually make up between 55%-70% of the total sales in Fluvanna for any given month. Much like the same chart for the Charlottesville Area, Fluvanna County sales show us that there is, indeed a distinct “Spring Market.” What is curious about Fluvanna, however, is that 2007 saw a sharp drop from May to June, whereas 2008 did not. In fact, June sales of 2008 were actually higher in number than those in 2007. One piece of encouraging information is that the stabilization of sales exhibited in the Charlottesville Area for the month of September was reflected in Fluvanna County, as well. Fluvanna sales in September of 2007 were 21, and they were 19 in 2008. Once again, we will have to closely monitor this statistic to see if it becomes a trend in the coming months, as it may signal some stabilization of sales. Just as with the Charlottesville Area stats, we have included the stats for the final months of 2007, in order to give you an idea of what might be expected.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Sales by Month 60
58 54
50 43
40
38
39 42
38
35
33 34
30
20
20
27
25
30
29 26
21
25
19
19
18
10
0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County, broken down by price range. This chart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also compares the price price range sales in 2007 and 2008. As you would expect, most of the price ranges saw a drop in sales in 2008 compared to 2007. The price range from $180,000-$199,900 has experienced the largest decrease in sales (-60%). Three price ranges experienced an increase in sales. The largest increase in sales was among homes between $200,000 and $259,900 (+360%). Overall, it would appear that all of the price ranges appear healthy, with no one price range suffering an abnormal amount, compared to any other.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range 19
0-179,900
23 15
180,000-199,900
6 5
200,000-259,900
13 9
260,000-299,900
6 12
300,000-349,000
14 22
350,000-399,900
20 2
400,000-449,000
1 5
450,000-499,900
3 8
500,000-800,000
5
0 Strong Team REALTORS
3
6
2007
9
12
15
18
2008
21
24
27
30
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers refer ONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2007 and 2008. As you might expect, most of the price ranges have experienced a decrease in sales. The only two ranges that have experienced an increase in sales were homes under $180,000, and homes between $450,000 and $499,000 (these are waterfront homes, which we will discuss later). As you can see, the distribution throughout the price ranges at Lake Monticello has remained mostly unchanged during 2008. The only price range that has suffered a significant decrease in sales is the $260,000-$299,900 range. Homes in that segment have experienced a 49% decrease in the number of sales.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range 12
0-179,900
19 27
180,000-199,900
24 76
200,000-259,900
57 49
260,000-299,900
25 21
300,000-349,000
12 17
350,000-399,900
5 10
400,000-449,000 450,000-499,900
7 1 7 4
500,000-800,000
3
0 Strong Team REALTORS
8
16
2007
24
32
40
48
2008
56
64
72
80
Source: CAAR MLS
Median Price by Area The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2007 is compared to 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY. The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore, considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market. In 2007, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area was $284,650 (through Sept. 30). Through the same time in 2008, the Charlottesville Area median has dropped to $278,990 (-2%). Albemarle County is the only area that has experienced an increase in the median (+4%). Lake Monticello has experienced an 8% drop in median price through Sept. 30th ($230,000 vs. $250,000). Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 4% drop in the median price. It would appear that, while the area is certainly experiencing price depreciation, it is very slight. There are many areas of the country where depreciation is in the double-digits. While it might be shocking to local residents, the Charlottesville Area is in much better shape than many parts of the country.
Strong Team REALTORS
Median Price by Area (through Sept. 30) 320,000
320,000 307,750
280,000 240,000
305,000300,000 279,000 265,000
255,000 244,950
284,650 278,990
276,500 265,000 250,000 230,000
200,000 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Days on Market by Area The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares the average DOM, through Sept. 30, in 2007 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only. DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower. As you might expect, the average DOM has risen during 2008 for every individual area, and for the Charlottesville Area as a whole. Across the area, average DOM has risen almost one full month (29 days) in 2008. It now takes an average of 115 days for a home to go under contract in the Charlottesville Area. In Fluvanna as a whole (including Lake Monticello), the average DOM is now 125 days. This is 39 days more than the same time in 2007. In Lake Monticello, specifically, the average DOM is now 113 days. This is 36 days more than the same time in 2007. If we combine these numbers, we can see that average DOM for properties in Fluvanna County, specifically, should be 137 days. Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others remain on the market for months, or even a year or more. The most significant factor in a higher DOM for an individual property is its price. Properties that are priced higher than their competing comparable properties typically have a much higher DOM. Strong Team REALTORS
Days on Market by Area (through Sept. 30) 140
140 125
120 112
112
100 80
104 89
86
115
113
108
91
86 77
71
60 40 20 0
Albemarle Charlottesville
Fluvanna
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of September 1st of 2008, there were 377 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 174 of those were located in Lake Monticello. One significant statistic is that the gap between the inventory numbers for 2007 and 2008 has been closing over the last few months. In fact, on September 1st of 2008, the inventory numbers for Fluvanna as a whole and Lake Monticello, by itself, were actually lower than the same day of 2007. Just as with the earlier chart that showed sales by month, if this trend were to continue, it might indicate a stabilizing of the market. The one thing that this chart does not tell us is why the inventory is being reduced. Having already examined the sales numbers, it is unlikely that inventory is reducing due to sales. It is possible that the inventory reduction is due to folks simply taking their homes off the market, or not putting them on the market. Since this statistic only reflects home for sale that are listed in the MLS, it is also possible that some inventory reduction is due to homes being rented, and possibly even bank-owned properties not listed. Regardless of the reason, any reduction in inventory is a positive sign for homeowners who are in a situation where they must sell. Only time will tell if we see an actual stabilization of inventory, so we have included the last months of 2007, in order to give you an idea of what to expect.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month* 400
392
389
378
380
377
370 358
360
350
381
380 365
381
368
339
340
347 323
343
332
320
325
300 293
280 260 240
297
269
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month* 200 190 181
185
186
183
185
186
180 168
170 160
174 182 174 167
156
164
165
Nov.
Dec.
157
150 150
140 130 120
174
178
128
131
135
110 100
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in 2007 and 2008. The “Fluvanna” column includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello. This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions, there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated. As you can see from the chart, sellers are getting a slightly lower percentage of list price in 2008 compared to 2007. For 2008, sellers in Fluvanna as a whole are receiving 96.99% of list price, with sellers in Lake Monticello receiving an average of 96.4% of list price. One of the most important things to consider with this statistic is that it doesn’t not account for drops in the list price prior to the contract. Therefore, if a home was originally listed for $300,000, dropped in price to $275,000, and then successfully sold for $270,000, the statistic would calculate that as 99.6%, not 90%. As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and sellers should act accordingly. Strong Team REALTORS
Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage) 100 99 98 97
97.52
97.45 96.99
96.40
96 95 94 93 92 91 90
Fluvanna
Lake Monticello ONLY
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through Sept. 30 in 2007 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes that were on the main lake. There was one home sold in 2007 located on Tufton Lake, which was excluded from the results. The chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold. As you can see from the chart, both the average and the median price of waterfront homes has increased in 2008 compared to 2007. The number of sales has increased also, rising from 13 to 14. Through Sept. 30 of 2008, the average price of sold waterfront homes is $466,607, and the median price is $467,500. For 2008, the highest-priced waterfront home to sell during that same time frame was $612,000, while the low was $325,000 (a condo). In 2007, the high and low was $700,000 and $365,000, respectively.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics* 470,000 423,000
467,500
466,607 434,000
430,000
376,000 329,000 282,000 235,000 188,000 141,000 94,000 47,000 0
Median Price
2007
Average Price
2008
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 13 sales in 2007, 14 sales in 2008 (through Sept. 30) Strong Team REALTORS
Source: CAAR MLS
Conclusion Most people will probably agree that this is one of the more challenging real estate markets in recent history. Many of the challenges have to do with external market factors over which individual homeowners or buyers have little control. The one thing over which buyers and sellers do have control is their own individual situations. For sellers, it is extremely important to carefully consider all of the comparable home data available, and to price the home accordingly. It is extremely important that you carefully examine actual data on comparable homes. Overpricing a home is the most critical mistake that sellers make. Once the home is priced too high, it becomes very difficult to catch up to the market without making drastic price reductions. Overpricing can also waste days on market, as there are so many homes on the market that buyers have a lot of inventory to choose from, so they can simply ignore homes that are overpriced. Proper pricing is the best way to give yourself the best opportunity to sell your home. For buyers, the lending climate has most certainly undergone significant changes over the past few months. Interest rates remain at historic lows, but they have crept upward over the last few weeks. There are loans available, and with the shrinking of the banking sector, one might even argue that the best lenders are the ones still standing. As a buyer, it is extremely important to explore as many loan options as possible, and to compare loan options between different lenders. This will give you the best possible chance to find the best loan for your situation. Buyers should also remember that the increased inventories can be both a curse and a blessing. Having more from which to choose is encouraging, but it can also be frustrating. The best way to prevent frustration is to have clear idea of not only what you can afford, but also what you need from your next home. The more complete you can be with your criteria, the easier it will be to remove the clutter from the inventory, and concentrate on the homes that will truly fulfill your needs. Strong Team REALTORS
Thank you We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected]. It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.
Strong Team REALTORS 86 Joshua Lane Palmyra, VA 22963 434-589-5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com Strong Team REALTORS
Data compiled and presented by:
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed
86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434.589.5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com
We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .
The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however, is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted. The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License. This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.
creative commons
by attribution
no derivatives
We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected].
Strong Team REALTORS
Introduction Welcome to the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that. This is merely the first of many regular reports we will release that will contain the vital data about the local real estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best decisions for them. Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show you a true picture of the local real estate market.
Scope of this report The data in this report looks back at the first 9 months of 2008 and compares it to the same time frame during 2007. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the region.
Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales By Area The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area through September 30th. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total. As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2007. For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume is 23% lower in 2008, compared with 2007. By area, Albemarle has seen the largest drop-off in sales (-31%), and the City of Charlottesville has seen the smallest change (-7%). Fluvanna, Greene, and Nelson Counties have seen a -27%, -13%, and -14% change, respectively. There is no doubting the fact that there are simply less homes being sold in the Charlottesville Area in 2008 compared to 2007. This does not mean that homes are not selling. It just means that there is greater competition for buyers among homes that are on the market. For buyers, there are more homes from which to choose. Later in the report, we will take a look at inventory and Days on Market statistics, which will give a more complete picture of market competition.
Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales by Area (through Sept. 30) 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,352
2,100 1,800
1,809
1,500 1,200
1,190
900 820
600 515
300 0
477 344
250
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
160
139
Greene
143
123
Nelson
Total
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello. In the previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible. Lake Monticello has experienced a drop-off of 29% in total sales in 2008 compared to 2007. The decrease is slightly less among the other homes in Fluvanna, coming in 24% lower. It is interesting to note that Lake Monticello accounted for 64% of Fluvanna County’s sales in 2007, and accounts for 65% of sales in the County in 2008.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales (through Sept. 30) 300 270 240 225
210 180 150 120 90
160
119 90
60 30 0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY
Lake Monticello
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the monthly-by-month totals from 2007 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month. It is obvious from the chart that the idea of the “Spring Market” is no myth. Sales trend upwards from January through July, and then begin to fall as we head towards the end of the year. Perhaps the most important piece of information we can take from this chart is the fact that in the month of September, the monthly sales totals were almost identical in 2008 vs. 2007 (169 vs. 170). Of course, this is only one month, but if we see this continue, it might indicate that we are seeing a stabilization of the market overall, as least as far as the number of sales is concerned. We simply won’t know for a few more months if this is an isolated occurrence, or a real trend. We have included the stats for the last months of 2007, in order to give you an idea of what we might be able to expect from sales.
Strong Team REALTORS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month 400
374 342
350
321
316
300 262
295
246
250
278 252
200
169 181
150
162
169
165 127
183
170
204
152
100
202
138
50 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna County Sales by Month The following chart shows the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the information is limited only to Fluvanna County. While this chart does not show Lake Monticello by itself, sales at the Lake usually make up between 55%-70% of the total sales in Fluvanna for any given month. Much like the same chart for the Charlottesville Area, Fluvanna County sales show us that there is, indeed a distinct “Spring Market.” What is curious about Fluvanna, however, is that 2007 saw a sharp drop from May to June, whereas 2008 did not. In fact, June sales of 2008 were actually higher in number than those in 2007. One piece of encouraging information is that the stabilization of sales exhibited in the Charlottesville Area for the month of September was reflected in Fluvanna County, as well. Fluvanna sales in September of 2007 were 21, and they were 19 in 2008. Once again, we will have to closely monitor this statistic to see if it becomes a trend in the coming months, as it may signal some stabilization of sales. Just as with the Charlottesville Area stats, we have included the stats for the final months of 2007, in order to give you an idea of what might be expected.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Sales by Month 60
58 54
50 43
40
38
39 42
38
35
33 34
30
20
20
27
25
30
29 26
21
25
19
19
18
10
0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County, broken down by price range. This chart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also compares the price price range sales in 2007 and 2008. As you would expect, most of the price ranges saw a drop in sales in 2008 compared to 2007. The price range from $180,000-$199,900 has experienced the largest decrease in sales (-60%). Three price ranges experienced an increase in sales. The largest increase in sales was among homes between $200,000 and $259,900 (+360%). Overall, it would appear that all of the price ranges appear healthy, with no one price range suffering an abnormal amount, compared to any other.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range 19
0-179,900
23 15
180,000-199,900
6 5
200,000-259,900
13 9
260,000-299,900
6 12
300,000-349,000
14 22
350,000-399,900
20 2
400,000-449,000
1 5
450,000-499,900
3 8
500,000-800,000
5
0 Strong Team REALTORS
3
6
2007
9
12
15
18
2008
21
24
27
30
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers refer ONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2007 and 2008. As you might expect, most of the price ranges have experienced a decrease in sales. The only two ranges that have experienced an increase in sales were homes under $180,000, and homes between $450,000 and $499,000 (these are waterfront homes, which we will discuss later). As you can see, the distribution throughout the price ranges at Lake Monticello has remained mostly unchanged during 2008. The only price range that has suffered a significant decrease in sales is the $260,000-$299,900 range. Homes in that segment have experienced a 49% decrease in the number of sales.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range 12
0-179,900
19 27
180,000-199,900
24 76
200,000-259,900
57 49
260,000-299,900
25 21
300,000-349,000
12 17
350,000-399,900
5 10
400,000-449,000 450,000-499,900
7 1 7 4
500,000-800,000
3
0 Strong Team REALTORS
8
16
2007
24
32
40
48
2008
56
64
72
80
Source: CAAR MLS
Median Price by Area The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2007 is compared to 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY. The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore, considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market. In 2007, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area was $284,650 (through Sept. 30). Through the same time in 2008, the Charlottesville Area median has dropped to $278,990 (-2%). Albemarle County is the only area that has experienced an increase in the median (+4%). Lake Monticello has experienced an 8% drop in median price through Sept. 30th ($230,000 vs. $250,000). Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 4% drop in the median price. It would appear that, while the area is certainly experiencing price depreciation, it is very slight. There are many areas of the country where depreciation is in the double-digits. While it might be shocking to local residents, the Charlottesville Area is in much better shape than many parts of the country.
Strong Team REALTORS
Median Price by Area (through Sept. 30) 320,000
320,000 307,750
280,000 240,000
305,000300,000 279,000 265,000
255,000 244,950
284,650 278,990
276,500 265,000 250,000 230,000
200,000 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Days on Market by Area The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares the average DOM, through Sept. 30, in 2007 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only. DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower. As you might expect, the average DOM has risen during 2008 for every individual area, and for the Charlottesville Area as a whole. Across the area, average DOM has risen almost one full month (29 days) in 2008. It now takes an average of 115 days for a home to go under contract in the Charlottesville Area. In Fluvanna as a whole (including Lake Monticello), the average DOM is now 125 days. This is 39 days more than the same time in 2007. In Lake Monticello, specifically, the average DOM is now 113 days. This is 36 days more than the same time in 2007. If we combine these numbers, we can see that average DOM for properties in Fluvanna County, specifically, should be 137 days. Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others remain on the market for months, or even a year or more. The most significant factor in a higher DOM for an individual property is its price. Properties that are priced higher than their competing comparable properties typically have a much higher DOM. Strong Team REALTORS
Days on Market by Area (through Sept. 30) 140
140 125
120 112
112
100 80
104 89
86
115
113
108
91
86 77
71
60 40 20 0
Albemarle Charlottesville
Fluvanna
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of September 1st of 2008, there were 377 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 174 of those were located in Lake Monticello. One significant statistic is that the gap between the inventory numbers for 2007 and 2008 has been closing over the last few months. In fact, on September 1st of 2008, the inventory numbers for Fluvanna as a whole and Lake Monticello, by itself, were actually lower than the same day of 2007. Just as with the earlier chart that showed sales by month, if this trend were to continue, it might indicate a stabilizing of the market. The one thing that this chart does not tell us is why the inventory is being reduced. Having already examined the sales numbers, it is unlikely that inventory is reducing due to sales. It is possible that the inventory reduction is due to folks simply taking their homes off the market, or not putting them on the market. Since this statistic only reflects home for sale that are listed in the MLS, it is also possible that some inventory reduction is due to homes being rented, and possibly even bank-owned properties not listed. Regardless of the reason, any reduction in inventory is a positive sign for homeowners who are in a situation where they must sell. Only time will tell if we see an actual stabilization of inventory, so we have included the last months of 2007, in order to give you an idea of what to expect.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month* 400
392
389
378
380
377
370 358
360
350
381
380 365
381
368
339
340
347 323
343
332
320
325
300 293
280 260 240
297
269
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month* 200 190 181
185
186
183
185
186
180 168
170 160
174 182 174 167
156
164
165
Nov.
Dec.
157
150 150
140 130 120
174
178
128
131
135
110 100
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in 2007 and 2008. The “Fluvanna” column includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello. This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions, there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated. As you can see from the chart, sellers are getting a slightly lower percentage of list price in 2008 compared to 2007. For 2008, sellers in Fluvanna as a whole are receiving 96.99% of list price, with sellers in Lake Monticello receiving an average of 96.4% of list price. One of the most important things to consider with this statistic is that it doesn’t not account for drops in the list price prior to the contract. Therefore, if a home was originally listed for $300,000, dropped in price to $275,000, and then successfully sold for $270,000, the statistic would calculate that as 99.6%, not 90%. As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and sellers should act accordingly. Strong Team REALTORS
Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage) 100 99 98 97
97.52
97.45 96.99
96.40
96 95 94 93 92 91 90
Fluvanna
Lake Monticello ONLY
2007 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through Sept. 30 in 2007 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes that were on the main lake. There was one home sold in 2007 located on Tufton Lake, which was excluded from the results. The chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold. As you can see from the chart, both the average and the median price of waterfront homes has increased in 2008 compared to 2007. The number of sales has increased also, rising from 13 to 14. Through Sept. 30 of 2008, the average price of sold waterfront homes is $466,607, and the median price is $467,500. For 2008, the highest-priced waterfront home to sell during that same time frame was $612,000, while the low was $325,000 (a condo). In 2007, the high and low was $700,000 and $365,000, respectively.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics* 470,000 423,000
467,500
466,607 434,000
430,000
376,000 329,000 282,000 235,000 188,000 141,000 94,000 47,000 0
Median Price
2007
Average Price
2008
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 13 sales in 2007, 14 sales in 2008 (through Sept. 30) Strong Team REALTORS
Source: CAAR MLS
Conclusion Most people will probably agree that this is one of the more challenging real estate markets in recent history. Many of the challenges have to do with external market factors over which individual homeowners or buyers have little control. The one thing over which buyers and sellers do have control is their own individual situations. For sellers, it is extremely important to carefully consider all of the comparable home data available, and to price the home accordingly. It is extremely important that you carefully examine actual data on comparable homes. Overpricing a home is the most critical mistake that sellers make. Once the home is priced too high, it becomes very difficult to catch up to the market without making drastic price reductions. Overpricing can also waste days on market, as there are so many homes on the market that buyers have a lot of inventory to choose from, so they can simply ignore homes that are overpriced. Proper pricing is the best way to give yourself the best opportunity to sell your home. For buyers, the lending climate has most certainly undergone significant changes over the past few months. Interest rates remain at historic lows, but they have crept upward over the last few weeks. There are loans available, and with the shrinking of the banking sector, one might even argue that the best lenders are the ones still standing. As a buyer, it is extremely important to explore as many loan options as possible, and to compare loan options between different lenders. This will give you the best possible chance to find the best loan for your situation. Buyers should also remember that the increased inventories can be both a curse and a blessing. Having more from which to choose is encouraging, but it can also be frustrating. The best way to prevent frustration is to have clear idea of not only what you can afford, but also what you need from your next home. The more complete you can be with your criteria, the easier it will be to remove the clutter from the inventory, and concentrate on the homes that will truly fulfill your needs. Strong Team REALTORS
Thank you We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected]. It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.
Strong Team REALTORS 86 Joshua Lane Palmyra, VA 22963 434-589-5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com Strong Team REALTORS
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