2009 1st Quarter Real Estate Market Report For Fluvanna County And Lake Monticello
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Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis
Data compiled and presented by:
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed
86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434.589.5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com
We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .
The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however, is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted. The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License. This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.
creative commons
by attribution
no derivatives
We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected].
Strong Team REALTORS
Introduction Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that. This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local real estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best decisions for them. Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show you a true picture of the local real estate market.
Scope of this report The data in this report looks back at the 1st Quarter of 2009 (Jan., Feb., Mar.,) and compares it to the same time period in 2008. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the region. Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales By Area The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area for the 1st Quarter (Q1) of 2009. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total. As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2008. For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume is 31% lower in 2009, compared with 2008. By area, Nelson County has seen the largest drop-off in sales (-51%), and Albemarle has seen the smallest change (-17%). Charlottesville, Fluvanna, and Greene Counties have seen a -38%, -32%, and -50% change, respectively. One fact that we will see again and again throughout the data in this Q1 report is that sales were dramatically lower in January and February of 2009, compared to 2008. This was true in all of the subareas in the Charlottesville Area. While January and February numbers are typically low compared to the other months of the year, that difference was exaggerated in 2009. January and February numbers did a lot to drag down the overall totals for Q1, as numbers in March were remarkably healthy. The data suggests that the Federal tax credit being offered to First-Time Homebuyers might have done its job, stimulating sales in March. The positive upward trend experienced in March will have to be watched going forward, to see if it holds and if 2009 sales figures can make up the ground lost in January and February.
Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales by Area 500 450 433
400 350 300
298
250 200 171
150 142
100
110
0
71
68
50
48
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
41
40 20
20
Greene
Nelson
Total
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during Q1. In the previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible. Lake Monticello experienced a drop-off of 32% in total sales in Q1 2009 compared to Q1 2008. The decrease almost the same among the other homes in Fluvanna, coming in 33% lower. It is interesting to note that Lake Monticello accounted for 55% of Fluvanna County’s sales in Q1 2009, and accounted for 54% of sales in the County in Q1 2008.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales 40 38
36 32
33
28 26
24 20
22
16 12 8 4 0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY
Lake Monticello
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the monthly-by-month totals from 2009 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month. This chart illustrates the abysmal sales numbers for January and February, and the slight recovery that was seen in March. Sales were 45% lower in January and 29% lower in February across the area. Sales recovered slightly in March, coming in only 22% lower. This wasn’t exactly the best way to begin 2009, as many experts had expected 2009 to look much like 2008. That prediction still has a chance to come true, but we won’t know if that is the case until we get further along in 2009. With the prime selling season on the horizon, it probably won’t be until the beginning of the 4th Quarter of 2009 before we can accurately evaluate the 2009 market.
Strong Team REALTORS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month 295
300
282 255
263 225
205 184
188 150
178
166
128
140
139
117 129
113
90 99
75 70
38 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the information is limited to Fluvanna County (only) on the first chart, and to Lake Monticello (only) on the second chart. As one might expect, both Fluvanna and Lake Monticello experience a very harsh January and February. In Fluvanna, sales were down 50% and 44% in January and February, respectively. In Lake Monticello, sales figures were even worse, coming in at 70% and 62% lower in January and February, respectively. As negative as the January and February numbers were, the March numbers were even more positive. In Fluvanna County, March saw only 2 fewer sales in 2009 compared to 2008 (-8%). Lake Monticello actually fared much better in March 2009 than in March 2008, with 5 more sales this year, a 30% increase. Everyone’s hope is that the positive trend seen in March will continue through the rest of the 2009 selling season. Time will tell if this is the case, but we won’t be able to make an accurate determination of the market’s performance in 2009 until at least October. Once we have the numbers for Q2 back, we will at least know how well the market performed during the prime selling season.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Sales by Month 50 42
42 34 32
33
30
29 27
26
25
25 20
24
18
19
17 12
15
8
0
9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Month 29
000
000
23 21
000
18
17
16
18
17
000
14
12 10
10
000 6
000
6 3
0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County (only), broken down by price range. This chart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also compares the price price range sales in 2009 and 2008. With so few sales during Q1 of 2009, this chart isn’t terribly helpful right now. It will become much more valuable as we get further into the year. The one trend that does seem to be emerging is that the sales numbers are picking up in the lower end of the price ranges. This is to be expected, but we won’t really know if this trend will hold until we get further into the year. Right now, the sample size is quite small.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range 4
0-179,900
10 5
180,000-199,900
3 5 5
200,000-259,900 1 1
260,000-299,900
3
300,000-349,000
2 1
350,000-399,900
7
400,000-449,000
0
450,000-499,900
0
1 2 2 2
500,000-800,000 0 Strong Team REALTORS
1
2
2009
3
4
5
6
2008
7
8
9
10 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers refer ONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2009 and 2008. As with the Fluvanna numbers on the previous chart, the sample size here is so small that we will likely have to wait a few months before we have enough data to see any real trend in the price ranges. Like the Fluvanna numbers, it would appear that the sales are moving into the lower price ranges. This is not unexpected, but we won’t know if the trend continues until we get a few more months of sales to look at.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range 9
0-179,900
5 6
180,000-199,900
7 5
200,000-259,900
13 3
260,000-299,900
7 1
300,000-349,000 350,000-399,900 400,000-449,000
3 0 2 2 0
450,000-499,900
0
500,000-800,000
0 0
1
0 Strong Team REALTORS
3
2009
5
8
10
2008
13
15 Source: CAAR MLS
Median Price by Area The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2009 is compared to 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY. The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore, considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market. In 2008, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the end of Q1 was $281,150. In 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the end of Q1 dropped to $271,042 (-4%). Greene and Nelson Counties were the only areas to experience a gain in the median home price in Q1 2009, but those gains were offset by the fact that those areas also experienced the highest drop in overall sales, as see on the first chart. Lake Monticello experienced a 21% drop in median home price ($189,500 vs. $238,500). Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 17% drop in the median price. Once again, the very low numbers in January and February had a significant impact on the data. While these numbers might seem alarming at first, they are sure to undergo significant changes as we continue to move through the year.
Strong Team REALTORS
Median Price by Area 400,000 350,000 335,000
300,000
309,950 291,500
250,000
290,500
281,250 262,810
285,000
281,150 271,042
262,500 242,000
200,000
238,500
200,450
189,500
150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Days on Market by Area The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares the average DOM, through March 31, in 2009 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only. DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower. The DOM numbers were very mixed across the areas, but the Charlottesville Area as a whole saw the average DOM for Q1 drop 4 days compared to Q1 2008. This is definitely a positive sign, but we will have to wait to see if the trend continues. In Fluvanna as a whole (including Lake Monticello), the average DOM was 127 days in Q1 2009. This is 8 days less than in Q1 2008. In Lake Monticello, specifically, the average DOM was 123 days. This is a 3 day decrease over 2008. If we combine these numbers, we can see that average DOM for properties in Fluvanna County, specifically, should have been 131 days. Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others remain on the market for months, or even a year or more. It is, however, a positive sign that homes are spending less time on the market. Hopefully, this trend will hold as we move through the year. Strong Team REALTORS
Days on Market by Area
0.000 164
163
152
5.714 135
141
1.429
135 127
123
126
130
134
115
7.143 92
90
2.857
8.571
4.286 0
Albemarle Charlottesville
Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2009, there were 315 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 143 of those were located in Lake Monticello. The numbers were a bit mixed, but positive overall. Inventory numbers in 2009 remained lower than in 2008, until we reached March, when an apparent surge of new listings pushed the 2009 numbers only barely higher than the inventory in March 2008. It would appear that most of that March inventory was in Fluvanna County, not Lake Monticello, as Lake Monticello experienced an unusual drop in inventory from February to March. Hopefully, we will continue to see inventory numbers stay below 2008 levels. Lower inventory numbers mean that the demand in the market is able to absorb the available supply. Inventory numbers were incredibly high in 2008, the highest in history, and dropping inventory levels would be a decidedly good thing. We have included on the chart the 2008 numbers for the rest of the months in the year, just to give you an idea of what to expect going forward.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month* 394
400 379
380
379
378
371
360
353 342
340
391 373
359
357
357
326
320
323 315
300 280 260 240
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month* 200 190
182
186
187
183
185
186
180
175
174
169
170 160
175
168
157
150 140
149 143
147
130 120 110 100
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2009 and 2008. The “Fluvanna” column includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello. This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions, there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated. The numbers here were split, with Fluvanna County homeowners doing slightly better in Q1 2009 than in Q1 2008, while Lake Monticello homeowners took home slightly less in Q1 2009 than in Q1 2008. Once again, the small sample size from the low numbers in January and February certainly had an effect on the numbers, so we should have a much better idea of what to expect once we get a few more months of data. As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and sellers should act accordingly.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage) 100 99 98 97
97.55
97.21 96.61
96 95.36
95 94 93 92 91 90
Fluvanna
Lake Monticello ONLY
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through March 31 in 2009 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold. As you can see from the chart, both the average and the median price of waterfront homes has increased in 2009 compared to 2008. The number of sales actually decreased, falling from 4 to 2. In Q1 2009, the average price and median price of sold waterfront homes was $431,500. One significant factor in this chart is that 2 of the sales in 2008 were Marina Point Condos. Being smaller and less expensive than most waterfront homes, they had a negative impact on the Q1 2008 numbers. As was the case with some of our other data, the sample size is so small for waterfront home sales in Q1, that we will really have to wait a few more months to see how the waterfront market is shaping up in 2009.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics* 440,000 431,500
431,500
396,000 352,000 308,000
363,750 337,500
264,000 220,000 176,000 132,000 88,000 44,000 0
Median Price
2009
Average Price
2008
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 2 sales in 2009, 4 sales in 2008 Strong Team REALTORS
Source: CAAR MLS
Conclusion The first two months of 2009 were two of the worst months we have ever seen. The numbers bear that out. The good news, however, is that it would appear that January and February were just a one-time occurrence, and not a trend. Sales numbers picked up enough in March that we should be able to expect a very healthy selling season as the year progresses. As we all know, 3 months does not a year make, so we will have to watch very closely the data and statistics that come from the next few months. The 2nd Quarter of the year (April-June), will be a critical time, as it represents the absolute peak of the selling season. The numbers we see during that time will likely determine the way that we look back at 2009. There are some things we can learn after examining the 1st Quarter of 2009. First, it would seem that the Federal tax credit being offered to first-time homebuyers is, in fact, stimulating market activity. This is very good news for buyers, but also for sellers who have homes in the price ranges that first-time homebuyers in our area typically visit ($175,000-$250,000). Another piece of instructive information is that inventory levels are dropping. This means that sellers are doing a better job of pricing their properties properly in order to sell, rather than “testing the market.” It also means that competition for sellers and buyers is increasing. More properly priced homes, and more buyer activity means that buyers will need to act more quickly after they have identified a property they want, and sellers must continue to be accurate and aggressive in their pricing. Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and good information provided the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals. Strong Team REALTORS
Thank you We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected]. It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.
Strong Team REALTORS 86 Joshua Lane Palmyra, VA 22963 434-589-5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com Strong Team REALTORS
Data compiled and presented by:
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed
86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434.589.5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com
We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .
The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however, is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted. The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License. This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.
creative commons
by attribution
no derivatives
We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected].
Strong Team REALTORS
Introduction Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that. This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local real estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best decisions for them. Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show you a true picture of the local real estate market.
Scope of this report The data in this report looks back at the 1st Quarter of 2009 (Jan., Feb., Mar.,) and compares it to the same time period in 2008. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the region. Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales By Area The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area for the 1st Quarter (Q1) of 2009. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total. As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2008. For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume is 31% lower in 2009, compared with 2008. By area, Nelson County has seen the largest drop-off in sales (-51%), and Albemarle has seen the smallest change (-17%). Charlottesville, Fluvanna, and Greene Counties have seen a -38%, -32%, and -50% change, respectively. One fact that we will see again and again throughout the data in this Q1 report is that sales were dramatically lower in January and February of 2009, compared to 2008. This was true in all of the subareas in the Charlottesville Area. While January and February numbers are typically low compared to the other months of the year, that difference was exaggerated in 2009. January and February numbers did a lot to drag down the overall totals for Q1, as numbers in March were remarkably healthy. The data suggests that the Federal tax credit being offered to First-Time Homebuyers might have done its job, stimulating sales in March. The positive upward trend experienced in March will have to be watched going forward, to see if it holds and if 2009 sales figures can make up the ground lost in January and February.
Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales by Area 500 450 433
400 350 300
298
250 200 171
150 142
100
110
0
71
68
50
48
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
41
40 20
20
Greene
Nelson
Total
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during Q1. In the previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible. Lake Monticello experienced a drop-off of 32% in total sales in Q1 2009 compared to Q1 2008. The decrease almost the same among the other homes in Fluvanna, coming in 33% lower. It is interesting to note that Lake Monticello accounted for 55% of Fluvanna County’s sales in Q1 2009, and accounted for 54% of sales in the County in Q1 2008.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales 40 38
36 32
33
28 26
24 20
22
16 12 8 4 0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY
Lake Monticello
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the monthly-by-month totals from 2009 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month. This chart illustrates the abysmal sales numbers for January and February, and the slight recovery that was seen in March. Sales were 45% lower in January and 29% lower in February across the area. Sales recovered slightly in March, coming in only 22% lower. This wasn’t exactly the best way to begin 2009, as many experts had expected 2009 to look much like 2008. That prediction still has a chance to come true, but we won’t know if that is the case until we get further along in 2009. With the prime selling season on the horizon, it probably won’t be until the beginning of the 4th Quarter of 2009 before we can accurately evaluate the 2009 market.
Strong Team REALTORS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month 295
300
282 255
263 225
205 184
188 150
178
166
128
140
139
117 129
113
90 99
75 70
38 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the information is limited to Fluvanna County (only) on the first chart, and to Lake Monticello (only) on the second chart. As one might expect, both Fluvanna and Lake Monticello experience a very harsh January and February. In Fluvanna, sales were down 50% and 44% in January and February, respectively. In Lake Monticello, sales figures were even worse, coming in at 70% and 62% lower in January and February, respectively. As negative as the January and February numbers were, the March numbers were even more positive. In Fluvanna County, March saw only 2 fewer sales in 2009 compared to 2008 (-8%). Lake Monticello actually fared much better in March 2009 than in March 2008, with 5 more sales this year, a 30% increase. Everyone’s hope is that the positive trend seen in March will continue through the rest of the 2009 selling season. Time will tell if this is the case, but we won’t be able to make an accurate determination of the market’s performance in 2009 until at least October. Once we have the numbers for Q2 back, we will at least know how well the market performed during the prime selling season.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Sales by Month 50 42
42 34 32
33
30
29 27
26
25
25 20
24
18
19
17 12
15
8
0
9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Month 29
000
000
23 21
000
18
17
16
18
17
000
14
12 10
10
000 6
000
6 3
0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County (only), broken down by price range. This chart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also compares the price price range sales in 2009 and 2008. With so few sales during Q1 of 2009, this chart isn’t terribly helpful right now. It will become much more valuable as we get further into the year. The one trend that does seem to be emerging is that the sales numbers are picking up in the lower end of the price ranges. This is to be expected, but we won’t really know if this trend will hold until we get further into the year. Right now, the sample size is quite small.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range 4
0-179,900
10 5
180,000-199,900
3 5 5
200,000-259,900 1 1
260,000-299,900
3
300,000-349,000
2 1
350,000-399,900
7
400,000-449,000
0
450,000-499,900
0
1 2 2 2
500,000-800,000 0 Strong Team REALTORS
1
2
2009
3
4
5
6
2008
7
8
9
10 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers refer ONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2009 and 2008. As with the Fluvanna numbers on the previous chart, the sample size here is so small that we will likely have to wait a few months before we have enough data to see any real trend in the price ranges. Like the Fluvanna numbers, it would appear that the sales are moving into the lower price ranges. This is not unexpected, but we won’t know if the trend continues until we get a few more months of sales to look at.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range 9
0-179,900
5 6
180,000-199,900
7 5
200,000-259,900
13 3
260,000-299,900
7 1
300,000-349,000 350,000-399,900 400,000-449,000
3 0 2 2 0
450,000-499,900
0
500,000-800,000
0 0
1
0 Strong Team REALTORS
3
2009
5
8
10
2008
13
15 Source: CAAR MLS
Median Price by Area The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2009 is compared to 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY. The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore, considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market. In 2008, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the end of Q1 was $281,150. In 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the end of Q1 dropped to $271,042 (-4%). Greene and Nelson Counties were the only areas to experience a gain in the median home price in Q1 2009, but those gains were offset by the fact that those areas also experienced the highest drop in overall sales, as see on the first chart. Lake Monticello experienced a 21% drop in median home price ($189,500 vs. $238,500). Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 17% drop in the median price. Once again, the very low numbers in January and February had a significant impact on the data. While these numbers might seem alarming at first, they are sure to undergo significant changes as we continue to move through the year.
Strong Team REALTORS
Median Price by Area 400,000 350,000 335,000
300,000
309,950 291,500
250,000
290,500
281,250 262,810
285,000
281,150 271,042
262,500 242,000
200,000
238,500
200,450
189,500
150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Days on Market by Area The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares the average DOM, through March 31, in 2009 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only. DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower. The DOM numbers were very mixed across the areas, but the Charlottesville Area as a whole saw the average DOM for Q1 drop 4 days compared to Q1 2008. This is definitely a positive sign, but we will have to wait to see if the trend continues. In Fluvanna as a whole (including Lake Monticello), the average DOM was 127 days in Q1 2009. This is 8 days less than in Q1 2008. In Lake Monticello, specifically, the average DOM was 123 days. This is a 3 day decrease over 2008. If we combine these numbers, we can see that average DOM for properties in Fluvanna County, specifically, should have been 131 days. Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others remain on the market for months, or even a year or more. It is, however, a positive sign that homes are spending less time on the market. Hopefully, this trend will hold as we move through the year. Strong Team REALTORS
Days on Market by Area
0.000 164
163
152
5.714 135
141
1.429
135 127
123
126
130
134
115
7.143 92
90
2.857
8.571
4.286 0
Albemarle Charlottesville
Fluvanna
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Greene
Nelson
*Lake Mont.
Total
2008
*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2009, there were 315 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 143 of those were located in Lake Monticello. The numbers were a bit mixed, but positive overall. Inventory numbers in 2009 remained lower than in 2008, until we reached March, when an apparent surge of new listings pushed the 2009 numbers only barely higher than the inventory in March 2008. It would appear that most of that March inventory was in Fluvanna County, not Lake Monticello, as Lake Monticello experienced an unusual drop in inventory from February to March. Hopefully, we will continue to see inventory numbers stay below 2008 levels. Lower inventory numbers mean that the demand in the market is able to absorb the available supply. Inventory numbers were incredibly high in 2008, the highest in history, and dropping inventory levels would be a decidedly good thing. We have included on the chart the 2008 numbers for the rest of the months in the year, just to give you an idea of what to expect going forward.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month* 394
400 379
380
379
378
371
360
353 342
340
391 373
359
357
357
326
320
323 315
300 280 260 240
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month* 200 190
182
186
187
183
185
186
180
175
174
169
170 160
175
168
157
150 140
149 143
147
130 120 110 100
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2008
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Source: CAAR MLS
Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2009 and 2008. The “Fluvanna” column includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello. This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions, there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated. The numbers here were split, with Fluvanna County homeowners doing slightly better in Q1 2009 than in Q1 2008, while Lake Monticello homeowners took home slightly less in Q1 2009 than in Q1 2008. Once again, the small sample size from the low numbers in January and February certainly had an effect on the numbers, so we should have a much better idea of what to expect once we get a few more months of data. As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and sellers should act accordingly.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage) 100 99 98 97
97.55
97.21 96.61
96 95.36
95 94 93 92 91 90
Fluvanna
Lake Monticello ONLY
2009 Strong Team REALTORS
2008 Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through March 31 in 2009 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold. As you can see from the chart, both the average and the median price of waterfront homes has increased in 2009 compared to 2008. The number of sales actually decreased, falling from 4 to 2. In Q1 2009, the average price and median price of sold waterfront homes was $431,500. One significant factor in this chart is that 2 of the sales in 2008 were Marina Point Condos. Being smaller and less expensive than most waterfront homes, they had a negative impact on the Q1 2008 numbers. As was the case with some of our other data, the sample size is so small for waterfront home sales in Q1, that we will really have to wait a few more months to see how the waterfront market is shaping up in 2009.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics* 440,000 431,500
431,500
396,000 352,000 308,000
363,750 337,500
264,000 220,000 176,000 132,000 88,000 44,000 0
Median Price
2009
Average Price
2008
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 2 sales in 2009, 4 sales in 2008 Strong Team REALTORS
Source: CAAR MLS
Conclusion The first two months of 2009 were two of the worst months we have ever seen. The numbers bear that out. The good news, however, is that it would appear that January and February were just a one-time occurrence, and not a trend. Sales numbers picked up enough in March that we should be able to expect a very healthy selling season as the year progresses. As we all know, 3 months does not a year make, so we will have to watch very closely the data and statistics that come from the next few months. The 2nd Quarter of the year (April-June), will be a critical time, as it represents the absolute peak of the selling season. The numbers we see during that time will likely determine the way that we look back at 2009. There are some things we can learn after examining the 1st Quarter of 2009. First, it would seem that the Federal tax credit being offered to first-time homebuyers is, in fact, stimulating market activity. This is very good news for buyers, but also for sellers who have homes in the price ranges that first-time homebuyers in our area typically visit ($175,000-$250,000). Another piece of instructive information is that inventory levels are dropping. This means that sellers are doing a better job of pricing their properties properly in order to sell, rather than “testing the market.” It also means that competition for sellers and buyers is increasing. More properly priced homes, and more buyer activity means that buyers will need to act more quickly after they have identified a property they want, and sellers must continue to be accurate and aggressive in their pricing. Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and good information provided the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals. Strong Team REALTORS
Thank you We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected]. It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.
Strong Team REALTORS 86 Joshua Lane Palmyra, VA 22963 434-589-5800 StrongTeamRealtors.com Strong Team REALTORS
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