051309 Ny Gov + Bp

Maurice Carroll, Director Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: MAY 13, 2009

NEW YORK GOV. PATERSON GETS LOW SCORES FROM ALL RACES, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; GIULIANI NARROWS GAP WITH CUOMO IN GOVERNOR’S RACE New York Gov. David Paterson’s approval rating is hovering at historic lows, with a disapproval of 61 – 28 percent among all voters, including 49 – 37 percent among black voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. In a Democratic primary for the 2010 Governor’s race, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo tops Gov. Paterson 62 – 17 percent, including 48 – 26 percent among blacks, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll of more than 2,800 New York State voters finds. Paterson’s 61 – 28 percent disapproval compares to a 60 – 28 percent disapproval April 6, the lowest ever for a New York State Governor. In the latest survey, white voters disapprove 66 – 24 percent and Hispanic voters disapprove 47 – 43 percent. In contrast, voters approve 68 – 12 percent of the job Attorney General Cuomo is doing, with approval ratings of 78 – 8 percent among black voters, 68 – 12 percent among white voters and 63 – 12 percent among Hispanics. Even Republicans approve 55 – 22 percent. “Black New Yorkers give the black Governor a negative job approval rating, not as bad as his overall rating but still on the downside,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “With support in every demographic sub-group, including a 22-point lead among black voters, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo trounces Gov. Paterson in a Democratic primary. Paterson has time to turn things around before the 2010 election, of course, but there’s not a hint of good news for him in this poll.” -more 

Quinnipiac University Poll/May 13, 2009 – page 2 In an early look at the 2010 Governor’s race, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads Paterson 54 – 32 percent. Giuliani leads 86 – 6 percent among Republicans and 60 – 21 percent among independent voters, while Democrats back Paterson 56 – 30 percent. Giuliani leads 62 – 25 percent among white voters and 51 – 42 percent among Hispanics, while black voters back Paterson 64 – 18 percent. Cuomo-Giuliani Cuomo leads Giuliani 47 – 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup, down from a 53 – 36 percent lead April 6. Independent voters have shifted from 49 – 38 percent for Cuomo April 8 to 44 – 40 percent for Giuliani today. In this latest survey, Giuliani leads 80 – 9 percent among Republicans while Democrats back Cuomo 78 – 16 percent. Cuomo leads 76 – 13 percent among black voters and 52 – 40 percent among Hispanics, as white voters go to Giuliani 47 – 42 percent. “If the Republicans nominate Mayor Giuliani, he beats Paterson by a lot. Cuomo beats Giuliani but that lead is shrinking as independent voters shift to the Republican. That’s a trend to watch,” Carroll said. New York State voters say 64 – 21 percent, including 46 – 33 percent among black voters, that Paterson does not deserve to be reelected. A total of 33 percent of voters say it is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that Paterson will run next year for a full four-year term as Governor, while 62 percent say it is “not too likely” or “not likely at all.” If Paterson runs, it will be bad for other Democrats running in the state, voters say 48 – 29 percent. Black voters split 40 – 39 percent on this question. “A lot of politicians think that the torrent of bad news will persuade Paterson not to run. Voters think so, too,” Carroll said. “If the Governor does what he says he will, and runs in 2010, voters think he’ll be bad news for other Democrats on the ballot.” From May 5 – 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,828 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points. The survey includes 1,238 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed – http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

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1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS................ Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Paterson Cuomo SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

17% 62 1 1 18

17% 60 2 1 20

18% 64 1 1 17

12% 70 1 1 17

26% 48 2 1 23

TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote? Apr 06 2009

Feb 17 2009

17 62 1 1 18

18 61 1 3 17

23 55 1 1 20

Paterson Cuomo SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

May 13 2009

2. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Paterson Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

Paterson Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

32% 54 3 3 8

6% 86 2 1 5

56% 30 2 4 7

21% 60 5 3 10

32% 55 3 3 6

32% 53 3 3 10

25% 62 3 3 8

64% 18 3 5 10

42% 51 5 3

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

32% 52 2 4 10

25% 58 3 3 10

25% 60 2 4 9

24% 60 3 3 10

44% 45 3 3 5

TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Paterson Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

May 13 2009

Apr 06 2009

Feb 17 2009

32 54 3 3 8

32 53 2 4 9

43 43 2 2 10

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3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Cuomo Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

Cuomo Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

47% 41 1 1 9

9% 80 1 9

78% 16 1 5

40% 44 1 2 13

44% 45 1 1 8

50% 38 1 1 11

42% 47 1 1 9

76% 13 2 8

52% 40 4 4

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

48% 37 3 3 9

42% 44 2 1 10

41% 46 1 11

41% 46 2 1 11

57% 34 1 7

TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Cuomo Giuliani SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

May 13 2009

Apr 06 2009

Feb 17 2009

47 41 1 1 9

53 36 2 9

51 37 1 2 9

4. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

51% 13 34 2

32% 24 42 2

66% 4 28 1

49% 11 37 3

48% 18 31 2

53% 8 37 2

48% 15 35 2

70% 2 28 -

45% 10 43 1

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

55% 8 37 -

46% 14 39 2

51% 17 29 3

44% 15 39 2

57% 9 32 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

May 13 2009

Apr 06 2009

Feb 17 2009

Jan 14 2009

Dec 23 2008

51 13 34 2

63 17 18 2

63 15 20 2

57 10 32 2

55 11 32 2

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5. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

24% 55 18 3

17% 66 15 2

33% 44 20 3

20% 57 19 3

26% 56 15 3

22% 54 21 3

20% 60 16 3

38% 36 22 3

35% 39 25 -

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

27% 54 18 1

22% 59 16 3

21% 58 18 3

22% 60 16 3

29% 47 21 3

TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

May 13 2009

Apr 06 2009

Feb 17 2009

Jan 26 2009

24 55 18 3

27 55 14 4

41 35 20 4

48 25 24 3

6. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

56% 32 10 2

85% 5 9 2

35% 52 10 3

62% 26 10 2

57% 32 9 2

55% 32 10 2

62% 25 11 2

23% 68 8 1

53% 34 9 3

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

61% 19 18 1

58% 23 17 2

62% 30 6 2

58% 23 16 2

48% 45 4 2

TREND: Is your opinion of - Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?(*High also 56% Feb 2009 and Feb 2007 )

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

May 13 2009

Apr 06 2009

Feb 17 2009

Dec 17 2007

Oct 3 2007

FAVORABLE..... High Low May 13 Dec 17 2009* 2007

56 32 10 2

55 35 7 4

56 35 7 2

41 40 16 3

55 38 5 2

56 32 10 2

41 40 16 3

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7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

28% 61 10

20% 73 7

35% 54 11

27% 62 11

30% 61 8

26% 61 12

24% 66 10

37% 49 14

43% 47 10

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

27% 65 7

26% 65 9

26% 62 12

26% 65 9

33% 56 11

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? (*Low also 28% Apr 2009)

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

May 13 2009

Apr 06 2009

Feb 17 2009

Jan 26 2009

Jan 15 2009

APPROVE....... High Low Aug 06 May 13 2008 2009*

28 61 10

28 60 13

45 41 14

50 30 20

53 25 22

64 14 22

28 61 10

8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

68% 12 20

55% 22 22

79% 5 16

69% 10 21

68% 15 17

68% 8 23

68% 12 20

78% 8 14

63% 12 25

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

68% 8 24

67% 11 22

70% 13 17

67% 12 21

69% 12 20

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

May 13 2009

Apr 06 2009

Feb 17 2009

Jan 14 2009

Dec 23 2008

APPROVE....... High Low Feb 17 Feb 13 2009 2007

68 12 20

75 14 11

76 11 13

69 16 15

72 14 14

76 11 13

42 16 42

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9. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?

Yes/Deserves No/Does not DK/NA

Yes/Deserves No/Does not DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

21% 64 15

12% 75 14

28% 56 16

19% 67 14

22% 64 13

20% 64 16

17% 69 13

33% 46 21

31% 50 19

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

22% 64 14

20% 67 14

18% 68 15

19% 67 14

24% 59 17

TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?

Yes/Deserves No/Does Not DK/NA

May 13 2009

Apr 06 2009

21 64 15

22 63 16

10. Governor Paterson says he'll run for governor in 2010. How likely do you think it is that he would win - very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?

Very likely Smwht likely Not too likely Not likely at all DK/NA

Very likely Smwht likely Not too likely Not likely at all DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

5% 28 33 29 4

4% 24 29 39 3

7% 34 34 21 4

5% 25 37 30 3

5% 26 32 33 4

6% 30 34 26 5

3% 26 35 32 4

17% 30 28 18 6

9% 32 32 23 4

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

10% 25 32 28 5

4% 27 32 32 5

5% 25 37 30 3

3% 27 32 33 5

7% 31 32 25 5

11. Do you think Governor Paterson running for governor in 2010 would be good or bad for other Democrats running for election in New York State?

Good Bad DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

29% 48 22

24% 53 23

37% 45 18

25% 50 25

28% 52 20

30% 46 24

26% 52 22

40% 39 21

40% 39 22

Cont’d

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11. (cont’d) Do you think Governor Paterson running for governor in 2010 would be good or bad for other Democrats running for election in New York State?

Good Bad DK/NA

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

33% 49 18

26% 51 22

26% 49 25

25% 52 23

35% 44 21

12. Democrats took control of the state senate this year for the first time in decades. Would you like to see them continue control in 2010?

Yes No DK/NA

Yes No DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Wom

Wht

Blk

His

56% 35 9

10% 82 8

93% 4 4

46% 37 17

50% 42 8

61% 29 10

46% 43 11

92% 6 2

75% 16 9

UpState..... Urban Othr

UpState Total NYC

Sub

52% 35 13

48% 40 12

47% 45 7

47% 41 12

71% 21 7

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