Ww(j)d Politics Updates
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SDI 08 WW(J)D
WW(J)D POLITICS UPDATES
WW(J)D POLITICS UPDATES......................................................................................................................................................1 SDI 08...............................................................................................................................................................................................1 WW(J)D ..................................................................................................................................................................1 1NC OBAMA WIN .........................................................................................................................................................................3 How does one make sense of this? The simple answer may get me ejected from the guild of political commentators, who have a lot of space to fill between now and November – but I report it nonetheless. It is that these early headtohead polls and the vast enterprise of political analysis, nitpicking and minute speculation they support, are, to a first order of approximation, worthless. In short, you resolve the paradox by ignoring them. ............................................................. 3 The only exception is 1968, when the barometer (calibrated to range between +100 and –100) gave Hubert Humphrey a waferthin advantage of +2; he lost, with a popular vote deficit of less than 1 percentage point. The barometer not only picks winners but pretty accurately points to winning margins, too. In 1980, Jimmy Carter had the biggest postwar negative reading (–66); Ronald Reagan beat him by nearly 10 percentage points. .......................................................... 3 The unsettling thing about this way of predicting the outcome, of course, is that it does not matter whether the Democratic candidate is Mr Obama or Hillary Clinton – or Joe Biden or Dennis Kucinich, for that matter. The Republicans’ choice of Mr McCain was equally beside the point. On the merits, one candidate may be much better than another – a separate and endlessly interesting question. When it comes to predicting the result, the barometer says that as long as the incumbent is not running, it makes no difference. ......................................................................................... 3 OBAMA WIN .................................................................................................................................................................................4 John McCain is holding onto just slightly more of his base as just over threequarters of Republicans (77%) say they will vote for him versus just under threequarters of Democrats (74%) who will vote for Barack Obama; and, ........... 4 OBAMA WINNING MICHIGAN...................................................................................................................................................5 Driving that divide in Michigan is a troubled economy, more bad news out of the automakers and a jobless rate that is tops in the nation. ............................................................................................................................................................. 5 Republicans believe they can use displeasure with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm as a wedge against Obama; Democrats think the economic doldrums nationally can be laid at the feet of President George W. Bush and the Republicans. ..................................................................................................................................................................... 5 MCCAIN LOSE ..............................................................................................................................................................................6 OBAMA LOSE ...............................................................................................................................................................................7 As Angelina Jolie, the Hollywood star and goodwill ambassador for the United Nations, said recently: “I think people assume I’m a Democrat. But I’m a registered independent and I’m still undecided. So I’m looking at McCain as well as Obama.” Could Americans have cold feet about their historymaking candidate? ........................................................ 7 Obama’s visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, France, Germany and Britain will have plenty of photoops and Hello! magazine moments. The Illinois senator will be meeting Carla Bruni, the chanteuse and first lady of France, and is travelling with America’s most highly paid, celebrity television news anchors. .................................................. 7 With the world as his stage, Obama, 46, hopes to persuade Americans that he is ready to become commanderinchief. His minders are determined there will be no pictures of him in a flakjacket or tank looking wimpish — the cause of Michael Dukakis’s downfall in the 1988 White House race. .......................................................................................... 7 OBAMA WIN IS BIASED..............................................................................................................................................................9 But that was before this week. ......................................................................................................................................... 9 The three major television networks are all scheduled to send their nightly news star "anchors'' to follow Obama on his trip to Iraq and the Middle East. ...................................................................................................................................... 9 When was the last time you saw ANY of the networks do this with Sen. McCain? ....................................................... 9 If you can't recall, it is because it hasn't happened. McCain, who knows and understands and is intimately familiar with Iraq and Mideast issues, has been there many times, with little fanfare. It is because he understands these issues that he was able to argue so effectively for the surge that has dramatically improved the Iraqi situation. .................................. 9 AT: FLIP FLOP LINK ...................................................................................................................................................................10 AT: SWING VOTER INTERNAL LINK.......................................................................................................................................11 INDIA DEAL THUMPER ............................................................................................................................................................12 1
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To create a broad consensus on the nuclear issue, Advani said that the government should have formed a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) but regretted that instead the UPA government went on forming UPALeft committee. 12 ........................................................................................................................................................................................ INDIA DEAL THUMPER ............................................................................................................................................................13
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1NC OBAMA WIN
OBAMA WIN – THE SMALL MARGIN IN POLLS IS MEANGINGLESS – HISTORY VERIFIED PREDICTORS ARE ON HIS SIDE. Crook 7/20/08. [Clive, Financial Times Columnist, Sr Editor – Atlantic Monthly, Sr Writer – National Journal, Financial Times -http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3bf5c59a-5666-11dd-8686-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1]
Yet look at the polls. A recent Gallup reading says that Mr Obama’s slender lead has narrowed; last week Rasmussen’s tracking poll called the race a tie. State-by-state polling, filtered through the electoral college arithmetic, gives Mr McCain a real shot at victory. All this despite the fact that the incumbent Republican president is deeply unpopular and the economy continues to tank. How does one make sense of this? The simple answer may get me ejected from the guild of political commentators, who have a lot of space to fill between now and November – but I report it nonetheless. It is that these early head-to-head polls and the vast enterprise of political analysis, nit-picking and minute speculation they support, are, to a first order of approximation, worthless. In short, you resolve the paradox by ignoring them. Note that if you do, science is on your side. Alan Abramowitz, a politics scholar at Emory University,
has shown that summer head-to-head polls convey almost no information about the forthcoming election. (Subsequent head-to-head polls are not much better.) Instead, he has a simple “electoral barometer” that weighs together the approval rating of the incumbent president, the economy’s economic growth rate and whether the president’s party has controlled the White House for two terms (the “time for a change” factor). This laughably simple metric has correctly forecast the winner of the popular vote in 14 out of 15 postwar presidential elections. The only exception is 1968, when the barometer (calibrated to range between +100 and –100) gave Hubert Humphrey a wafer-thin advantage of +2; he lost, with a popular vote deficit of less than 1 percentage point. The barometer not only picks winners but pretty accurately points to winning margins, too. In 1980, Jimmy Carter had the biggest postwar negative reading (–66); Ronald Reagan beat him by nearly 10 percentage points. President George W. Bush’s net approval rating (favourable minus unfavourable) is currently –40; the economy grew at a 1 per cent annual rate in the first quarter; and Republicans have had two terms in the White House. Plugging the numbers into Mr Abramowitz’s formula gives the Republican candidate a score of –60, about as bad as it gets: second only to Mr Carter’s in the annals of doomed postwar candidacies. The barometer says Mr Obama is going to waltz to
victory. Why has this barometer been so much more accurate than the wisdom of Gallup? That is hard to say – but as a factual matter, its superiority is indisputable. Even if you do not buy it, it ought to inform your reading of the polls. A wide winning margin, which is what the barometer predicts for Mr Obama, renders moot all the detailed electoral map analysis of swing states, solid states, toss-up states, states leaning one way or the other. All this wonderful stuff might matter if the margin in the national popular vote is thin. If it is wide, the toss-up states move together and that is that. The unsettling thing about this way of predicting the outcome, of course, is that it does not matter whether the Democratic candidate is Mr Obama or Hillary Clinton – or Joe Biden or Dennis Kucinich, for that matter. The Republicans’ choice of Mr McCain was equally beside the point. On the merits, one candidate may be much better than another – a separate and endlessly interesting question. When it comes to predicting the result, the barometer says that as long as the incumbent is not running, it makes no difference. Are there special factors that could throw the calculation off? No doubt, and this year one above all cries out. Mr Obama would be the first black president, a possibility the barometer has not yet had to contemplate. Who
knows what difference his colour will make, whether it will help him on balance or hurt him. History suggests neither; that the choice of candidates, their strengths and weaknesses and the way they fight their campaigns, matters less to the outcome than one might suppose and infinitely less than the political commentariat is honour-bound to maintain. History suggests Mr McCain is toast.
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OBAMA WIN
OBAMA LEADS MCCAIN BY 9 POINTS – POLLS AND INDEPENDENTS. Market Watch 7/21/08 [“Obama leads McCain by nine points among registered voters” http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/obama-leads-mccain-nine-points/story.aspx?guid=%7B8D62C9BA-4CAA-4591-A6A98816A907F135%7D&dist=hppr] With just six weeks to go until the Democrat and Republican Presidential conventions, the general election
is almost officially here. Results from a new Harris Poll show that: -- In a four way race, Barack Obama leads John McCain among registered voters 44 percent to 35 percent, while Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate and Ralph Nader each receive 2 percent. Sixteen percent of registered voters are not sure who they will vote for yet;
-- John McCain is holding onto just slightly more of his base as just over three-quarters of Republicans (77%) say they will vote for him versus just under three-quarters of Democrats (74%) who will vote for Barack Obama; and, -- Among Independents, Obama has a 12-point lead (38% to 26%), but one-quarter of Independents (25%) are not sure, 4 percent would vote for Bob Barr and 3 percent for Ralph Nader.
OBAMA WIN – DEM BASE IS FIRED UP. USAToday.com 7/18/08 [“Poll: Obama elicits more excitement than McCain” http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-07-18-Obama-elections_N.htm]
As Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama prepares for a major trip to Europe and the Middle East, a poll released Friday shows his supporters are much more fired up about the election than those of his Republican opponent John McCain. The poll by The Associated Press and Yahoo News showed that 38% of Obama's supporters say the election is exciting compared with 9% of McCain's. The passion and interest shown by blocs of voters are important because they affect who will be motivated to vote. OBAMA WINNING NOW – GALLUP POLLS. Lightman 7/21/08. [David, columnist for McClatchy Newspapers, Hot off the trail Newstex -- lexis[ Barack Obama holds a small but steady lead over John McCain, as Obama continues his trip abroad. Gallup has been tracking sentiment about the two presidential rivals daily for about the last month, and found little has changed. In the latest poll, which includes interviews were being finished, showed Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, at 45 percent, while Republican McCain had 42. Obama led by 6 at one point earlier this month. Margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The survey could draw no conclusions about the potential impact of Obama's trip.
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OBAMA WINNING MICHIGAN
OBAMA WINNING MICHIGAN NOW BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE – PLAN SWINGS THE ELECTION. Spangler 8. [Todd, Free Press Washington Staff, Detroit Free Press, July 20 -http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080720/NEWS15/807200614/&imw=Y]
The latest polls of Michigan voters show Obama opening up a lead -- 47% to 39%, according to Rasmussen Reports -- in a state that hasn't broken for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely voters July 10. Its poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. But the campaigns and the party leaders are expecting a tighter race. State Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer says all the visits, ads and other forms of campaigning, from signs to volunteer work, are leading to more enthusiasm than he has ever seen for a presidential race. His Republican counterpart, Saul Anuzis, says he's seeing the same among his party's faithful. Driving that divide in Michigan is a troubled economy, more bad news out of the automakers and a jobless rate that is tops in the nation. Republicans believe they can use displeasure with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm as a wedge against Obama; Democrats think the economic doldrums nationally can be laid at the feet of President George W. Bush and the Republicans.
"Clearly, Michigan is a swing state, and both sides have recognized this," said Anuzis, while acknowledging Obama seems to be enjoying a bounce in the polls. "Expect Obama to lead all the way to the convention -- and then it will close up at the end."
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MCCAIN LOSE
MCCAIN’S MISSTEPS MEAN OBAMA WILL WIN BUT THE RACE WILL BE CLOSE Lowry and Ponnuru 8/4/08 [National Review “Game Plan – Should McCain care to win…” -- lexis] Ever since Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination, John McCain has been within five points of him in a weighted average of national polls; lately, he has been within four. Most Republican strategists thought that Obama would be much farther ahead. Polls show that the public would much rather elect a Democratic president than another Republican one. But voters have enough respect for McCain and enough doubts about Obama to make this race competitive. Nonetheless, McCain is behind, and it is going to take a smart and well-executed campaign to change that. The Iraq War is unpopular, and Americans want to end it as soon as we reasonably can. Most Americans are dissatisfied with the economy, upset in particular by the rising price of necessities. The number of people who think the country is on the right track is in the teens.
President Bush and his party have been deeply unpopular for several years. Liberals are excited and organized in a way that conservatives aren't. The good news for Republicans is that Obama can be beaten. The bad news is that the McCain campaign has embarked on a course that -- although it has some of the right elements -- seems likely to fail, and the tightening of the polls may encourage it to continue on that course. The race wouldn't be as competitive as it is if McCain didn't have unusual strengths as a political persona, but McCain is also a great risk to his own cause. In important respects, he needs to run an un-McCain-like campaign, more negative than he'd prefer, more focused on domestic policy, and less freewheeling: Think of a Republican Hillary Clinton circa this year's Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries.
MCCAIN WILL LOSE – DISILLUSIONED BASE WON’T TURN OUT IN NOVEMBER. Hayes 7/21/08 [Stephen, senior writer – Weekly Standard “The Enthusiasm Gap” Weekly Standard -- lexis] There are risks to this strategy and the enthusiasm gap is chief among them. A Washington Post/ABC News poll last month found that nearly half of the liberals surveyed are enthusiastic about supporting Barack Obama, while only 13 percent of conservatives are enthusiastic about McCain. More generally, 91 percent of self-identified Obama supporters are enthusiastic about their candidate; 54 percent say they are very enthusiastic Seventy-three percent of such McCain supporters say they are enthusiastic about his candidacy, but only 17 percent say they are very enthusiastic. A USA Today/Gallup poll reported similar findings last week. That survey shows that while 67 percent of Barack Obama's supporters are more excited than usual about voting for their candidate, only 31 percent of John McCain's supporters can say the same thing. More troubling for the McCain campaign
is that more than half of those who identified themselves as McCain backers--54 percent-say they are less excited than usual about their candidate. It is not surprising that conservatives are not warming to a candidate who likes to talk about climate change and government subsidies for displaced workers. But this coldness is increasingly alarming to some
McCain backers. They believe that all of McCain's efforts to win over Democrats and independents can only pay off if he is able to get conservatives to turn out to vote for him in November.
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OBAMA LOSE
OBAMA LOSING NOW – COMMANDER IN CHIEF WORRIES AND NO HOT BUTTON ISSUES. Sunday Times 7/20/08 [“Barack Obama fears the Blair effect” http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4363044.ece]
In America, however, Obama is struggling to convince voters that he is The Chosen One. While he is supported abroad by almost everybody from French communists to German greens and plenty of British conservatives, his victory at home is far from assured. As Angelina Jolie, the Hollywood star and goodwill ambassador for the United Nations, said recently: “I think people assume I’m a Democrat. But I’m a registered independent and I’m still undecided. So I’m looking at McCain as well as Obama.” Could Americans have cold feet about their history-making candidate? Lee Hamilton, a senior Obama adviser and co-chairman of the influential Iraq Study Group, said frankly: “Many people in Europe look upon Senator Obama as the president-elect, but that’s not correct. It is going to be a
very close election.”
Obama’s visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, France, Germany and Britain will have plenty of photo-ops and Hello! magazine moments. The Illinois senator will be meeting Carla Bruni, the chanteuse and first lady of France, and is travelling with America’s most highly paid, celebrity television news anchors. With the world as his stage, Obama, 46, hopes to persuade Americans that he is ready to become commander-in-chief. His minders are determined there will be no pictures of him in a flak-jacket or tank looking wimpish — the cause of Michael Dukakis’s downfall in the 1988 White House race.
A poll in The Washington Post last week showed that 72% of Americans thought McCain, a Vietnam war hero, would make a good commander-in-chief; only 48% felt the same way about Obama. “He has to persuade voters to feel comfortable with him as president and he has not yet cleared that hurdle,” said Hamilton. “He is a relatively new figure, a young man and an African-American. “There isn’t any single button he can push to achieve that comfort level and that is why this trip is so important. It will show that he can play in the major leagues.” OBAMA WILL LOSE – THE ELECTION IS A DEAD HEAT. Sunday Times 7/20/08 [“Barack Obama fears the Blair effect” http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4363044.ece]
Lanny Davis, a prominent supporter of Hillary Clinton during the primary campaign, said: “Why is he basically in a dead heat? If you are a Democrat ahead of a Republican by five or six points; and if you are polling under 50% and that stays the same through October, the Republican wins.” Democrats are torn between the conviction that 2008 is their year and a rising sense of terror that they could blow yet another election. OBAMA LOSE NOW – PERCEPTIONS OF EGOTISM AND POOR CAMPAIGNING STRATEGIES. Washington Times 7/21 [08 -- lexis]
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"Just like the Obama girl, Obama has a crush on Obama," Boston Globe columnist Joan Vennochi writes. "Barack Obama always was a larger-than-life candidate with a healthy ego. Now he's turning into the A-Rod of politics. It's all about him," the columnist said.
"He's giving his opponent something other than issues to attack him on: narcissism. "A convention hall isn't good enough for the presumptive Democratic nominee. He plans to deliver his acceptance speech in the 75,000-seat stadium where the Denver Broncos play. Before a vote is cast, he's embarking on a foreign-policy tour that will use cheering Europeans - and America's top news anchors - as extras in his campaign. What do you expect from a candidate who already auditioned a quasi-presidential seal with the Latin inscription, 'Vero possumus' - 'Yes, we can'? "Obama finds criticism of his wife 'infuriating' and doesn't want either of them to be the target of satire. Tell that to the Carters, the Reagans, the Clintons, and the Bushes, father and son." Looking south "At the start of every presidential race, the Democrats perform a masochistic ritual," Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Dick Polman writes at www.philly.com. "They promise to take a stand in Dixieland, get in touch with their inner NASCAR, sweet-talk the Southerners with a heavy emphasis on faith and flag. The aim, every time, is to capture some of
those states and thereby clinch the election. Care to guess how well the Democrats have fared lately?" Mr. Polman asked. "Eleven Southern states compose the Old Confederacy. The last Democratic nominee, John Kerry, won zip and lost 11. The previous nominee, Al Gore, won zip and lost 11. Indeed, all the Democratic nominees since 1980 have combined to win nine and lose 68 - a record of failure not seen in the annals of competition since Casey Stengel's '62 Mets.
"Yet Democrats persist in thinking they can score on the GOP's home turf - as evidenced, this time around, by Barack Obama's decision to spend roughly $8 million (and that's just his initial outlay) to sell himself in TV ads in four Southern states. This [past] weekend, Obama is opening 20 campaign offices in Virginia, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1964. Either he's smart to make these moves, which are designed to expand the battlefield, or he's merely the latest Democrat to play
Captain Ahab in a futile pursuit of the party's great white whale."
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OBAMA WIN IS BIASED
NEG EVIDENCE IS BIASED – THE MEDIA IS BIASED TOWARDS OBAMA – SCRUTINIZE THEIR EVIDENCE. McQuaid 7/21/08 [Joseph, New Hampshire Union Leader Publisher, “Obama Orgy” Union Leader.com, http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Obama+orgy&articleId=c59bf7fa-c458-40aa-819d-efd11aa13974] The blatant bias of the major national news media toward Barack Obama is now so overwhelming that it would not be worth noting, except that the election of a President of the United States is involved. It is a propaganda blitz that would make the Kremlin blush.
By election day, we fully expect John McCain to be vilified as a Vietnam-era war criminal and worse. But that is only if the networks and other major media can tear themselves away from their Obama orgy. A recent report found that since June the nightly newscasts of NBC, CBS, and ABC combined have spent 114 minutes covering Obama. McCain got 48 minutes. But that was before this week. The three major television networks are all scheduled to send their nightly news star "anchors'' to follow Obama on his trip to Iraq and the Middle East. When was the last time you saw ANY of the networks do this with Sen. McCain? If you can't recall, it is because it hasn't happened. McCain, who knows and understands and is intimately familiar with Iraq and Mideast issues, has been there many times, with little fanfare. It is because he understands these issues that he was able to argue so effectively for the surge that has dramatically improved the Iraqi situation.
The outrageous imbalance in the major media's coverage of the candidates means that the American people are going to have to work doubly hard to make the right choice in these perilous times.
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AT: FLIP FLOP LINK
FLIP FLOP – NOT A BIG DEAL. Madden 8. [Mike, Washington correspondent, “Flip Flopping to the White House” Salon News, July 17 http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/07/17/flip_flop/] What this discounts, though, is how American voters may really feel about each candidate's evolving campaign in 2008. They probably don't want to see their candidate abandoning campaign promises
once they take office -- but after seven long years of a Bush administration that refused to change course until it was too late, they may see something entirely different in a leader who is not locked into the first thoughts he had on a given issue. This election may prove to be the one in which the flip-flop, as political weapon, finally fizzles. Both Obama and McCain are trying to play up their commitment to changing the country's course. And it may be that as that course looks increasingly difficult, voters will pay the most attention to how the candidates are adapting to and planning to deal with the war or the economy, rather than punishing them for lacking George W. Bush's dogmatism.
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AT: SWING VOTER INTERNAL LINK
SWING VOTERS ARE A MYTH – THEY DON’T DETERMINE THE ELECTION. Slate Magazine 8. [July 16 -- lexis] Every four years, the media announce which slice of American voters-Soccer Moms, Security Moms, Waitress Moms, NASCAR Dads, Office Park Dads, Joe Six-Packs, Angry White Males, or One-Armed Vegetarian Live-In Boyfriends-will decide the election for the rest of us. Equally ritualistic is the gleefuldebunking of these ever-proliferating categories of swing voter. This year, with John McCain and
Barack Obama redrawing the electoral map, it's going to be difficult to pinpoint a single group as the key to victory. But that doesn't mean media outlets (including this one) won't try.
Pollsters generally discover swing voters in one of two ways. They can ask voters point-blank whom they're supporting and whether they'll change their mind. Or they can "message-test," which is more costly. In message-testing, a pollster describes to voters a candidate's policies and plans and then asks the voters whether they agree. Anyone who can be converted in the course of such an exchange is a potential swing voter. Once you've got your swing voters, you start looking for patterns. Maybe there's an abnormal number of middle-class women between the ages of 30 and 50 (Soccer Moms). Maybe they come from a certain geographical area or educational background (NASCAR Dads). Maybe there's one issue that gets their blood boiling (Security Moms). Slap on a catchy name and you've got yourself a news cycle!
Many pollsters are skeptical of the exercise. "It's not how elections work," says Geoff Garin, who served as Hillary Clinton's pollster. Mark Blumenthal, who runs Pollster.com, is equally dubious. "We could do with less mythic swing voter groups," he said. The problem, they say, is that trying to pin an election outcome on one narrow group misses the reality that elections are decided by complex combinations of turnout and preference among many demographic groups.
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INDIA DEAL THUMPER
EVEN IF THE CURRENT VOTE OF CONFIDENCE WORKS OUT, THE OPPOSITION TO THE DEAL WILL FORCE IT TO BE RENEGOTIATED AGAIN – ZERO CHANCE IT WOULD PASS BEFORE BUSH IS GONE REGARDLESS OF PLAN – ZERO INTERNAL LINK. Livemint.com 7/21/08 [“PM moves confidence motion in Lok Sabha” http://www.livemint.com/2008/07/21101533/PMmoves-confidence-motion-in.html?h=E] Holding Prime Minister Manmohan Singh directly responsible for the present political crisis,
Leader of Opposition L K Advani stated said that the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal has become an agreement between two individuals making India “subservient” and a “junior partner”. He added that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was not against forging close relations with the US but was against India being party to a deal which was “unequal”. “If people vote NDA back to power, we will renegotiate the deal to make it equal and ensure that there are no constraints on our strategic autonomy,” Advani said. To create a broad consensus on the nuclear issue, Advani said that the government should have formed a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) but regretted that instead the UPA government went on forming UPA-Left committee.
THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO COLLAPSE AND FORCE NATIONAL ELECTIONS WHICH WILL POSTPONE THE INDIA DEAL UNTIL JANUARY. Daily Star 7/22/08 [http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=46799] But opposition parties -- including the left and the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -- are equally confident they can force national elections. Earlier the Indian government was scouring for support Monday, trying to shore up its position a day before a no-confidence vote in parliament triggered by a controversial nuclear deal with Washington. The government will collapse and early elections will be called if the coalition of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh loses on Tuesday, and experts say the vote in the 543-seat parliament is too close to call. Singh's allies and the opposition have been battling to woo even tiny parties with just a handful of votes, with
the outcome likely to be determined by only the smallest of margins.
The race is so tight, and the stakes are so high, that the government is letting six MPs serving jail terms out to vote. Meanwhile the opposition is paying for charter flights to bring in ailing lawmakers. "The vote will be a close thing, as the smaller parties who hold the key may not back the prime minister," said political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan. "One should not be surprised if the government falls by a few votes." Singh stirred up popular anger by signing a nuclear accord with the United States which his government insists is essential to meet the energy needs of India's fast-growing economy and its one billion people. India, which tested nuclear weapons in 1974 and 1998 and refuses to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is currently barred from buying nuclear technology and fuel. The deal would allow such purchases but subject India's civilian nuclear sites under international controls -which are aimed at ensuring that any purchases are not diverted for military uses.
But opponents say the deal would bring traditionally non-aligned India too close to the United States. If the government collapses, the nuclear accord would almost certainly be put on hold. The deal was signed in 2005 but has not been ratified because of the uproar, and the opposition believes it can capitalise on that anger -- and frustration over the economy -- to win a general election.
If every member of parliament casts a ballot on Tuesday, the government will need 272 votes to survive. If it loses, polls will take place by January at the latest.
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INDIA DEAL THUMPER
ZERO CHANCE THE INDIA DEAL WILL EVER PASS BEFORE THE END OF BUSH’S TERM – HIS POLITICAL CAPITAL IS IRRELEVENT. Guardian Online 7/22/08 [“Q&A: India’s Stalled nuclear deal with the US” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/22/india.nuclear2] Its chances would improve, but the US Congress also needs to sign the deal off before it can become law. It received preliminary approval in 2006, under the control of George Bush's Republicans, and the new
Democratic-run Congress is unlikely to embrace the president's demands for approval of the India deal. Two conditions make the chances of its survival very slim: the US Congress must be in session for 30 continuous days in order to hold a final vote, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well as the international Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) must have already cleared it. Given that the US Congress will end its session in late September and not return until next year, the nuclear deal may meet its demise in Washington. EXTERNAL FACTORS LIKE IAEA APPROVAL MEANS THE DEAL WONT’ GET DONE IN TIME – POLITICAL CAPITAL IS IRRELEVENT. Economic Times 7/22/08 [“US to ‘do all it can’ to push Ndeal once India decides” http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/US_to_do_all_it_can_to_push_N-deal_once_India_decides/articleshow/3265806.cms] Acknowledging the constraints of the Congressional calendar, Boucher said, "...I think, everybody wants to take it as far as we can. I can't promise what the US Congress will do, but if
we take it to some point and time expires on this Congress, then the new Congress will have to take it up - that's all you can say. So, that's our pledge." India also needs to sign an India-specific safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and get clearance from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) before the deal goes to the US Congress for final approval.
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WW(J)D POLITICS UPDATES
WW(J)D POLITICS UPDATES......................................................................................................................................................1 SDI 08...............................................................................................................................................................................................1 WW(J)D ..................................................................................................................................................................1 1NC OBAMA WIN .........................................................................................................................................................................3 How does one make sense of this? The simple answer may get me ejected from the guild of political commentators, who have a lot of space to fill between now and November – but I report it nonetheless. It is that these early headtohead polls and the vast enterprise of political analysis, nitpicking and minute speculation they support, are, to a first order of approximation, worthless. In short, you resolve the paradox by ignoring them. ............................................................. 3 The only exception is 1968, when the barometer (calibrated to range between +100 and –100) gave Hubert Humphrey a waferthin advantage of +2; he lost, with a popular vote deficit of less than 1 percentage point. The barometer not only picks winners but pretty accurately points to winning margins, too. In 1980, Jimmy Carter had the biggest postwar negative reading (–66); Ronald Reagan beat him by nearly 10 percentage points. .......................................................... 3 The unsettling thing about this way of predicting the outcome, of course, is that it does not matter whether the Democratic candidate is Mr Obama or Hillary Clinton – or Joe Biden or Dennis Kucinich, for that matter. The Republicans’ choice of Mr McCain was equally beside the point. On the merits, one candidate may be much better than another – a separate and endlessly interesting question. When it comes to predicting the result, the barometer says that as long as the incumbent is not running, it makes no difference. ......................................................................................... 3 OBAMA WIN .................................................................................................................................................................................4 John McCain is holding onto just slightly more of his base as just over threequarters of Republicans (77%) say they will vote for him versus just under threequarters of Democrats (74%) who will vote for Barack Obama; and, ........... 4 OBAMA WINNING MICHIGAN...................................................................................................................................................5 Driving that divide in Michigan is a troubled economy, more bad news out of the automakers and a jobless rate that is tops in the nation. ............................................................................................................................................................. 5 Republicans believe they can use displeasure with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm as a wedge against Obama; Democrats think the economic doldrums nationally can be laid at the feet of President George W. Bush and the Republicans. ..................................................................................................................................................................... 5 MCCAIN LOSE ..............................................................................................................................................................................6 OBAMA LOSE ...............................................................................................................................................................................7 As Angelina Jolie, the Hollywood star and goodwill ambassador for the United Nations, said recently: “I think people assume I’m a Democrat. But I’m a registered independent and I’m still undecided. So I’m looking at McCain as well as Obama.” Could Americans have cold feet about their historymaking candidate? ........................................................ 7 Obama’s visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, France, Germany and Britain will have plenty of photoops and Hello! magazine moments. The Illinois senator will be meeting Carla Bruni, the chanteuse and first lady of France, and is travelling with America’s most highly paid, celebrity television news anchors. .................................................. 7 With the world as his stage, Obama, 46, hopes to persuade Americans that he is ready to become commanderinchief. His minders are determined there will be no pictures of him in a flakjacket or tank looking wimpish — the cause of Michael Dukakis’s downfall in the 1988 White House race. .......................................................................................... 7 OBAMA WIN IS BIASED..............................................................................................................................................................9 But that was before this week. ......................................................................................................................................... 9 The three major television networks are all scheduled to send their nightly news star "anchors'' to follow Obama on his trip to Iraq and the Middle East. ...................................................................................................................................... 9 When was the last time you saw ANY of the networks do this with Sen. McCain? ....................................................... 9 If you can't recall, it is because it hasn't happened. McCain, who knows and understands and is intimately familiar with Iraq and Mideast issues, has been there many times, with little fanfare. It is because he understands these issues that he was able to argue so effectively for the surge that has dramatically improved the Iraqi situation. .................................. 9 AT: FLIP FLOP LINK ...................................................................................................................................................................10 AT: SWING VOTER INTERNAL LINK.......................................................................................................................................11 INDIA DEAL THUMPER ............................................................................................................................................................12 1
SDI 08 WW(J)D
To create a broad consensus on the nuclear issue, Advani said that the government should have formed a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) but regretted that instead the UPA government went on forming UPALeft committee. 12 ........................................................................................................................................................................................ INDIA DEAL THUMPER ............................................................................................................................................................13
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1NC OBAMA WIN
OBAMA WIN – THE SMALL MARGIN IN POLLS IS MEANGINGLESS – HISTORY VERIFIED PREDICTORS ARE ON HIS SIDE. Crook 7/20/08. [Clive, Financial Times Columnist, Sr Editor – Atlantic Monthly, Sr Writer – National Journal, Financial Times -http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3bf5c59a-5666-11dd-8686-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1]
Yet look at the polls. A recent Gallup reading says that Mr Obama’s slender lead has narrowed; last week Rasmussen’s tracking poll called the race a tie. State-by-state polling, filtered through the electoral college arithmetic, gives Mr McCain a real shot at victory. All this despite the fact that the incumbent Republican president is deeply unpopular and the economy continues to tank. How does one make sense of this? The simple answer may get me ejected from the guild of political commentators, who have a lot of space to fill between now and November – but I report it nonetheless. It is that these early head-to-head polls and the vast enterprise of political analysis, nit-picking and minute speculation they support, are, to a first order of approximation, worthless. In short, you resolve the paradox by ignoring them. Note that if you do, science is on your side. Alan Abramowitz, a politics scholar at Emory University,
has shown that summer head-to-head polls convey almost no information about the forthcoming election. (Subsequent head-to-head polls are not much better.) Instead, he has a simple “electoral barometer” that weighs together the approval rating of the incumbent president, the economy’s economic growth rate and whether the president’s party has controlled the White House for two terms (the “time for a change” factor). This laughably simple metric has correctly forecast the winner of the popular vote in 14 out of 15 postwar presidential elections. The only exception is 1968, when the barometer (calibrated to range between +100 and –100) gave Hubert Humphrey a wafer-thin advantage of +2; he lost, with a popular vote deficit of less than 1 percentage point. The barometer not only picks winners but pretty accurately points to winning margins, too. In 1980, Jimmy Carter had the biggest postwar negative reading (–66); Ronald Reagan beat him by nearly 10 percentage points. President George W. Bush’s net approval rating (favourable minus unfavourable) is currently –40; the economy grew at a 1 per cent annual rate in the first quarter; and Republicans have had two terms in the White House. Plugging the numbers into Mr Abramowitz’s formula gives the Republican candidate a score of –60, about as bad as it gets: second only to Mr Carter’s in the annals of doomed postwar candidacies. The barometer says Mr Obama is going to waltz to
victory. Why has this barometer been so much more accurate than the wisdom of Gallup? That is hard to say – but as a factual matter, its superiority is indisputable. Even if you do not buy it, it ought to inform your reading of the polls. A wide winning margin, which is what the barometer predicts for Mr Obama, renders moot all the detailed electoral map analysis of swing states, solid states, toss-up states, states leaning one way or the other. All this wonderful stuff might matter if the margin in the national popular vote is thin. If it is wide, the toss-up states move together and that is that. The unsettling thing about this way of predicting the outcome, of course, is that it does not matter whether the Democratic candidate is Mr Obama or Hillary Clinton – or Joe Biden or Dennis Kucinich, for that matter. The Republicans’ choice of Mr McCain was equally beside the point. On the merits, one candidate may be much better than another – a separate and endlessly interesting question. When it comes to predicting the result, the barometer says that as long as the incumbent is not running, it makes no difference. Are there special factors that could throw the calculation off? No doubt, and this year one above all cries out. Mr Obama would be the first black president, a possibility the barometer has not yet had to contemplate. Who
knows what difference his colour will make, whether it will help him on balance or hurt him. History suggests neither; that the choice of candidates, their strengths and weaknesses and the way they fight their campaigns, matters less to the outcome than one might suppose and infinitely less than the political commentariat is honour-bound to maintain. History suggests Mr McCain is toast.
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SDI 08 WW(J)D
OBAMA WIN
OBAMA LEADS MCCAIN BY 9 POINTS – POLLS AND INDEPENDENTS. Market Watch 7/21/08 [“Obama leads McCain by nine points among registered voters” http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/obama-leads-mccain-nine-points/story.aspx?guid=%7B8D62C9BA-4CAA-4591-A6A98816A907F135%7D&dist=hppr] With just six weeks to go until the Democrat and Republican Presidential conventions, the general election
is almost officially here. Results from a new Harris Poll show that: -- In a four way race, Barack Obama leads John McCain among registered voters 44 percent to 35 percent, while Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate and Ralph Nader each receive 2 percent. Sixteen percent of registered voters are not sure who they will vote for yet;
-- John McCain is holding onto just slightly more of his base as just over three-quarters of Republicans (77%) say they will vote for him versus just under three-quarters of Democrats (74%) who will vote for Barack Obama; and, -- Among Independents, Obama has a 12-point lead (38% to 26%), but one-quarter of Independents (25%) are not sure, 4 percent would vote for Bob Barr and 3 percent for Ralph Nader.
OBAMA WIN – DEM BASE IS FIRED UP. USAToday.com 7/18/08 [“Poll: Obama elicits more excitement than McCain” http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-07-18-Obama-elections_N.htm]
As Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama prepares for a major trip to Europe and the Middle East, a poll released Friday shows his supporters are much more fired up about the election than those of his Republican opponent John McCain. The poll by The Associated Press and Yahoo News showed that 38% of Obama's supporters say the election is exciting compared with 9% of McCain's. The passion and interest shown by blocs of voters are important because they affect who will be motivated to vote. OBAMA WINNING NOW – GALLUP POLLS. Lightman 7/21/08. [David, columnist for McClatchy Newspapers, Hot off the trail Newstex -- lexis[ Barack Obama holds a small but steady lead over John McCain, as Obama continues his trip abroad. Gallup has been tracking sentiment about the two presidential rivals daily for about the last month, and found little has changed. In the latest poll, which includes interviews were being finished, showed Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, at 45 percent, while Republican McCain had 42. Obama led by 6 at one point earlier this month. Margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The survey could draw no conclusions about the potential impact of Obama's trip.
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OBAMA WINNING MICHIGAN
OBAMA WINNING MICHIGAN NOW BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE – PLAN SWINGS THE ELECTION. Spangler 8. [Todd, Free Press Washington Staff, Detroit Free Press, July 20 -http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080720/NEWS15/807200614/&imw=Y]
The latest polls of Michigan voters show Obama opening up a lead -- 47% to 39%, according to Rasmussen Reports -- in a state that hasn't broken for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely voters July 10. Its poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. But the campaigns and the party leaders are expecting a tighter race. State Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer says all the visits, ads and other forms of campaigning, from signs to volunteer work, are leading to more enthusiasm than he has ever seen for a presidential race. His Republican counterpart, Saul Anuzis, says he's seeing the same among his party's faithful. Driving that divide in Michigan is a troubled economy, more bad news out of the automakers and a jobless rate that is tops in the nation. Republicans believe they can use displeasure with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm as a wedge against Obama; Democrats think the economic doldrums nationally can be laid at the feet of President George W. Bush and the Republicans.
"Clearly, Michigan is a swing state, and both sides have recognized this," said Anuzis, while acknowledging Obama seems to be enjoying a bounce in the polls. "Expect Obama to lead all the way to the convention -- and then it will close up at the end."
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SDI 08 WW(J)D
MCCAIN LOSE
MCCAIN’S MISSTEPS MEAN OBAMA WILL WIN BUT THE RACE WILL BE CLOSE Lowry and Ponnuru 8/4/08 [National Review “Game Plan – Should McCain care to win…” -- lexis] Ever since Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination, John McCain has been within five points of him in a weighted average of national polls; lately, he has been within four. Most Republican strategists thought that Obama would be much farther ahead. Polls show that the public would much rather elect a Democratic president than another Republican one. But voters have enough respect for McCain and enough doubts about Obama to make this race competitive. Nonetheless, McCain is behind, and it is going to take a smart and well-executed campaign to change that. The Iraq War is unpopular, and Americans want to end it as soon as we reasonably can. Most Americans are dissatisfied with the economy, upset in particular by the rising price of necessities. The number of people who think the country is on the right track is in the teens.
President Bush and his party have been deeply unpopular for several years. Liberals are excited and organized in a way that conservatives aren't. The good news for Republicans is that Obama can be beaten. The bad news is that the McCain campaign has embarked on a course that -- although it has some of the right elements -- seems likely to fail, and the tightening of the polls may encourage it to continue on that course. The race wouldn't be as competitive as it is if McCain didn't have unusual strengths as a political persona, but McCain is also a great risk to his own cause. In important respects, he needs to run an un-McCain-like campaign, more negative than he'd prefer, more focused on domestic policy, and less freewheeling: Think of a Republican Hillary Clinton circa this year's Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries.
MCCAIN WILL LOSE – DISILLUSIONED BASE WON’T TURN OUT IN NOVEMBER. Hayes 7/21/08 [Stephen, senior writer – Weekly Standard “The Enthusiasm Gap” Weekly Standard -- lexis] There are risks to this strategy and the enthusiasm gap is chief among them. A Washington Post/ABC News poll last month found that nearly half of the liberals surveyed are enthusiastic about supporting Barack Obama, while only 13 percent of conservatives are enthusiastic about McCain. More generally, 91 percent of self-identified Obama supporters are enthusiastic about their candidate; 54 percent say they are very enthusiastic Seventy-three percent of such McCain supporters say they are enthusiastic about his candidacy, but only 17 percent say they are very enthusiastic. A USA Today/Gallup poll reported similar findings last week. That survey shows that while 67 percent of Barack Obama's supporters are more excited than usual about voting for their candidate, only 31 percent of John McCain's supporters can say the same thing. More troubling for the McCain campaign
is that more than half of those who identified themselves as McCain backers--54 percent-say they are less excited than usual about their candidate. It is not surprising that conservatives are not warming to a candidate who likes to talk about climate change and government subsidies for displaced workers. But this coldness is increasingly alarming to some
McCain backers. They believe that all of McCain's efforts to win over Democrats and independents can only pay off if he is able to get conservatives to turn out to vote for him in November.
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SDI 08 WW(J)D
OBAMA LOSE
OBAMA LOSING NOW – COMMANDER IN CHIEF WORRIES AND NO HOT BUTTON ISSUES. Sunday Times 7/20/08 [“Barack Obama fears the Blair effect” http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4363044.ece]
In America, however, Obama is struggling to convince voters that he is The Chosen One. While he is supported abroad by almost everybody from French communists to German greens and plenty of British conservatives, his victory at home is far from assured. As Angelina Jolie, the Hollywood star and goodwill ambassador for the United Nations, said recently: “I think people assume I’m a Democrat. But I’m a registered independent and I’m still undecided. So I’m looking at McCain as well as Obama.” Could Americans have cold feet about their history-making candidate? Lee Hamilton, a senior Obama adviser and co-chairman of the influential Iraq Study Group, said frankly: “Many people in Europe look upon Senator Obama as the president-elect, but that’s not correct. It is going to be a
very close election.”
Obama’s visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, France, Germany and Britain will have plenty of photo-ops and Hello! magazine moments. The Illinois senator will be meeting Carla Bruni, the chanteuse and first lady of France, and is travelling with America’s most highly paid, celebrity television news anchors. With the world as his stage, Obama, 46, hopes to persuade Americans that he is ready to become commander-in-chief. His minders are determined there will be no pictures of him in a flak-jacket or tank looking wimpish — the cause of Michael Dukakis’s downfall in the 1988 White House race.
A poll in The Washington Post last week showed that 72% of Americans thought McCain, a Vietnam war hero, would make a good commander-in-chief; only 48% felt the same way about Obama. “He has to persuade voters to feel comfortable with him as president and he has not yet cleared that hurdle,” said Hamilton. “He is a relatively new figure, a young man and an African-American. “There isn’t any single button he can push to achieve that comfort level and that is why this trip is so important. It will show that he can play in the major leagues.” OBAMA WILL LOSE – THE ELECTION IS A DEAD HEAT. Sunday Times 7/20/08 [“Barack Obama fears the Blair effect” http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4363044.ece]
Lanny Davis, a prominent supporter of Hillary Clinton during the primary campaign, said: “Why is he basically in a dead heat? If you are a Democrat ahead of a Republican by five or six points; and if you are polling under 50% and that stays the same through October, the Republican wins.” Democrats are torn between the conviction that 2008 is their year and a rising sense of terror that they could blow yet another election. OBAMA LOSE NOW – PERCEPTIONS OF EGOTISM AND POOR CAMPAIGNING STRATEGIES. Washington Times 7/21 [08 -- lexis]
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"Just like the Obama girl, Obama has a crush on Obama," Boston Globe columnist Joan Vennochi writes. "Barack Obama always was a larger-than-life candidate with a healthy ego. Now he's turning into the A-Rod of politics. It's all about him," the columnist said.
"He's giving his opponent something other than issues to attack him on: narcissism. "A convention hall isn't good enough for the presumptive Democratic nominee. He plans to deliver his acceptance speech in the 75,000-seat stadium where the Denver Broncos play. Before a vote is cast, he's embarking on a foreign-policy tour that will use cheering Europeans - and America's top news anchors - as extras in his campaign. What do you expect from a candidate who already auditioned a quasi-presidential seal with the Latin inscription, 'Vero possumus' - 'Yes, we can'? "Obama finds criticism of his wife 'infuriating' and doesn't want either of them to be the target of satire. Tell that to the Carters, the Reagans, the Clintons, and the Bushes, father and son." Looking south "At the start of every presidential race, the Democrats perform a masochistic ritual," Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Dick Polman writes at www.philly.com. "They promise to take a stand in Dixieland, get in touch with their inner NASCAR, sweet-talk the Southerners with a heavy emphasis on faith and flag. The aim, every time, is to capture some of
those states and thereby clinch the election. Care to guess how well the Democrats have fared lately?" Mr. Polman asked. "Eleven Southern states compose the Old Confederacy. The last Democratic nominee, John Kerry, won zip and lost 11. The previous nominee, Al Gore, won zip and lost 11. Indeed, all the Democratic nominees since 1980 have combined to win nine and lose 68 - a record of failure not seen in the annals of competition since Casey Stengel's '62 Mets.
"Yet Democrats persist in thinking they can score on the GOP's home turf - as evidenced, this time around, by Barack Obama's decision to spend roughly $8 million (and that's just his initial outlay) to sell himself in TV ads in four Southern states. This [past] weekend, Obama is opening 20 campaign offices in Virginia, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1964. Either he's smart to make these moves, which are designed to expand the battlefield, or he's merely the latest Democrat to play
Captain Ahab in a futile pursuit of the party's great white whale."
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SDI 08 WW(J)D
OBAMA WIN IS BIASED
NEG EVIDENCE IS BIASED – THE MEDIA IS BIASED TOWARDS OBAMA – SCRUTINIZE THEIR EVIDENCE. McQuaid 7/21/08 [Joseph, New Hampshire Union Leader Publisher, “Obama Orgy” Union Leader.com, http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Obama+orgy&articleId=c59bf7fa-c458-40aa-819d-efd11aa13974] The blatant bias of the major national news media toward Barack Obama is now so overwhelming that it would not be worth noting, except that the election of a President of the United States is involved. It is a propaganda blitz that would make the Kremlin blush.
By election day, we fully expect John McCain to be vilified as a Vietnam-era war criminal and worse. But that is only if the networks and other major media can tear themselves away from their Obama orgy. A recent report found that since June the nightly newscasts of NBC, CBS, and ABC combined have spent 114 minutes covering Obama. McCain got 48 minutes. But that was before this week. The three major television networks are all scheduled to send their nightly news star "anchors'' to follow Obama on his trip to Iraq and the Middle East. When was the last time you saw ANY of the networks do this with Sen. McCain? If you can't recall, it is because it hasn't happened. McCain, who knows and understands and is intimately familiar with Iraq and Mideast issues, has been there many times, with little fanfare. It is because he understands these issues that he was able to argue so effectively for the surge that has dramatically improved the Iraqi situation.
The outrageous imbalance in the major media's coverage of the candidates means that the American people are going to have to work doubly hard to make the right choice in these perilous times.
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SDI 08 WW(J)D
AT: FLIP FLOP LINK
FLIP FLOP – NOT A BIG DEAL. Madden 8. [Mike, Washington correspondent, “Flip Flopping to the White House” Salon News, July 17 http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/07/17/flip_flop/] What this discounts, though, is how American voters may really feel about each candidate's evolving campaign in 2008. They probably don't want to see their candidate abandoning campaign promises
once they take office -- but after seven long years of a Bush administration that refused to change course until it was too late, they may see something entirely different in a leader who is not locked into the first thoughts he had on a given issue. This election may prove to be the one in which the flip-flop, as political weapon, finally fizzles. Both Obama and McCain are trying to play up their commitment to changing the country's course. And it may be that as that course looks increasingly difficult, voters will pay the most attention to how the candidates are adapting to and planning to deal with the war or the economy, rather than punishing them for lacking George W. Bush's dogmatism.
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AT: SWING VOTER INTERNAL LINK
SWING VOTERS ARE A MYTH – THEY DON’T DETERMINE THE ELECTION. Slate Magazine 8. [July 16 -- lexis] Every four years, the media announce which slice of American voters-Soccer Moms, Security Moms, Waitress Moms, NASCAR Dads, Office Park Dads, Joe Six-Packs, Angry White Males, or One-Armed Vegetarian Live-In Boyfriends-will decide the election for the rest of us. Equally ritualistic is the gleefuldebunking of these ever-proliferating categories of swing voter. This year, with John McCain and
Barack Obama redrawing the electoral map, it's going to be difficult to pinpoint a single group as the key to victory. But that doesn't mean media outlets (including this one) won't try.
Pollsters generally discover swing voters in one of two ways. They can ask voters point-blank whom they're supporting and whether they'll change their mind. Or they can "message-test," which is more costly. In message-testing, a pollster describes to voters a candidate's policies and plans and then asks the voters whether they agree. Anyone who can be converted in the course of such an exchange is a potential swing voter. Once you've got your swing voters, you start looking for patterns. Maybe there's an abnormal number of middle-class women between the ages of 30 and 50 (Soccer Moms). Maybe they come from a certain geographical area or educational background (NASCAR Dads). Maybe there's one issue that gets their blood boiling (Security Moms). Slap on a catchy name and you've got yourself a news cycle!
Many pollsters are skeptical of the exercise. "It's not how elections work," says Geoff Garin, who served as Hillary Clinton's pollster. Mark Blumenthal, who runs Pollster.com, is equally dubious. "We could do with less mythic swing voter groups," he said. The problem, they say, is that trying to pin an election outcome on one narrow group misses the reality that elections are decided by complex combinations of turnout and preference among many demographic groups.
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SDI 08 WW(J)D
INDIA DEAL THUMPER
EVEN IF THE CURRENT VOTE OF CONFIDENCE WORKS OUT, THE OPPOSITION TO THE DEAL WILL FORCE IT TO BE RENEGOTIATED AGAIN – ZERO CHANCE IT WOULD PASS BEFORE BUSH IS GONE REGARDLESS OF PLAN – ZERO INTERNAL LINK. Livemint.com 7/21/08 [“PM moves confidence motion in Lok Sabha” http://www.livemint.com/2008/07/21101533/PMmoves-confidence-motion-in.html?h=E] Holding Prime Minister Manmohan Singh directly responsible for the present political crisis,
Leader of Opposition L K Advani stated said that the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal has become an agreement between two individuals making India “subservient” and a “junior partner”. He added that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was not against forging close relations with the US but was against India being party to a deal which was “unequal”. “If people vote NDA back to power, we will renegotiate the deal to make it equal and ensure that there are no constraints on our strategic autonomy,” Advani said. To create a broad consensus on the nuclear issue, Advani said that the government should have formed a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) but regretted that instead the UPA government went on forming UPA-Left committee.
THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO COLLAPSE AND FORCE NATIONAL ELECTIONS WHICH WILL POSTPONE THE INDIA DEAL UNTIL JANUARY. Daily Star 7/22/08 [http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=46799] But opposition parties -- including the left and the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -- are equally confident they can force national elections. Earlier the Indian government was scouring for support Monday, trying to shore up its position a day before a no-confidence vote in parliament triggered by a controversial nuclear deal with Washington. The government will collapse and early elections will be called if the coalition of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh loses on Tuesday, and experts say the vote in the 543-seat parliament is too close to call. Singh's allies and the opposition have been battling to woo even tiny parties with just a handful of votes, with
the outcome likely to be determined by only the smallest of margins.
The race is so tight, and the stakes are so high, that the government is letting six MPs serving jail terms out to vote. Meanwhile the opposition is paying for charter flights to bring in ailing lawmakers. "The vote will be a close thing, as the smaller parties who hold the key may not back the prime minister," said political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan. "One should not be surprised if the government falls by a few votes." Singh stirred up popular anger by signing a nuclear accord with the United States which his government insists is essential to meet the energy needs of India's fast-growing economy and its one billion people. India, which tested nuclear weapons in 1974 and 1998 and refuses to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is currently barred from buying nuclear technology and fuel. The deal would allow such purchases but subject India's civilian nuclear sites under international controls -which are aimed at ensuring that any purchases are not diverted for military uses.
But opponents say the deal would bring traditionally non-aligned India too close to the United States. If the government collapses, the nuclear accord would almost certainly be put on hold. The deal was signed in 2005 but has not been ratified because of the uproar, and the opposition believes it can capitalise on that anger -- and frustration over the economy -- to win a general election.
If every member of parliament casts a ballot on Tuesday, the government will need 272 votes to survive. If it loses, polls will take place by January at the latest.
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INDIA DEAL THUMPER
ZERO CHANCE THE INDIA DEAL WILL EVER PASS BEFORE THE END OF BUSH’S TERM – HIS POLITICAL CAPITAL IS IRRELEVENT. Guardian Online 7/22/08 [“Q&A: India’s Stalled nuclear deal with the US” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/22/india.nuclear2] Its chances would improve, but the US Congress also needs to sign the deal off before it can become law. It received preliminary approval in 2006, under the control of George Bush's Republicans, and the new
Democratic-run Congress is unlikely to embrace the president's demands for approval of the India deal. Two conditions make the chances of its survival very slim: the US Congress must be in session for 30 continuous days in order to hold a final vote, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well as the international Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) must have already cleared it. Given that the US Congress will end its session in late September and not return until next year, the nuclear deal may meet its demise in Washington. EXTERNAL FACTORS LIKE IAEA APPROVAL MEANS THE DEAL WONT’ GET DONE IN TIME – POLITICAL CAPITAL IS IRRELEVENT. Economic Times 7/22/08 [“US to ‘do all it can’ to push Ndeal once India decides” http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/US_to_do_all_it_can_to_push_N-deal_once_India_decides/articleshow/3265806.cms] Acknowledging the constraints of the Congressional calendar, Boucher said, "...I think, everybody wants to take it as far as we can. I can't promise what the US Congress will do, but if
we take it to some point and time expires on this Congress, then the new Congress will have to take it up - that's all you can say. So, that's our pledge." India also needs to sign an India-specific safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and get clearance from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) before the deal goes to the US Congress for final approval.
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