318 Gt Cofta Politics Updates

GT Ciborowski

1 COFTA Politics

Index Index................................................................................................................................................................................1 COFTA 1NC....................................................................................................................................................................2 Columbia Passing now....................................................................................................................................................4 AT: Pelosi Blocking .......................................................................................................................................................5 AT: Brazil Civil War........................................................................................................................................................6 AT: Pelosi Link Turn.......................................................................................................................................................8 AT: Amazon Turn............................................................................................................................................................9 Terrorism Impact Scenario............................................................................................................................................10 Heg Impact Scenario.....................................................................................................................................................11 Econ collapse Impact....................................................................................................................................................12 Russia Impact Scenario.................................................................................................................................................13

GT Ciborowski

2 COFTA Politics

COFTA 1NC Columbian Free Trade will pass now but Bush’s political capital is key Wall Street Journal 2008 (3/10/08, “The Chavez Democrats”, Wall street editorial) [Ciborowski]

Mr. Rangel is right about the politics. No matter what U.S. strategic interests may be in Colombia, this is an election year in America. And Democrats don’t want to upset their union and anti-trade allies. The problem is that the time available to pass anything this year is growing short. The closer the election gets, the more leverage protectionists have to run out the clock on the Bush Presidency. The deal has the support of a bipartisan majority in the Senate, and probably also in the House. Sooner or later the White House will have to force the issue. Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are both competing for union support. Plan is extremely divisive – perceived as undermining the war on drugs Donna Leinwand, USA Today, ’05, “'Industrial' hemp support takes root”, Hawaii, Kentucky, Maine, Montana and West Virginia also have passed hemp-farming bills. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, RTexas, introduced such a bill in Congress in June, but it hasn't advanced in the face of opposition by the Drug Enforcement Administration and the White House's anti-drug office. The DEA says allowing farmers to grow hemp in the USA would undermine the war on drugs. It says marijuana growers would be able to camouflage their crop with similar-looking hemp plants, and that DEA agents would have difficulty quickly telling the difference.

Colombia FTA is key to American ability to promote democracy everywhere Burns 2004 (Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs, 10/23//07, "Promoting Peace and Prosperity in Colombia" http://www.tradeagreements.gov/TradeAgreementNews/Speeches/PROD01_004389.html) I have spoken about the direct economic benefits that would flow both to Colombia and the United States under the Free Trade Agreement. However, this agreement is about more than dollars or pesos, it is about achieving the vision I spoke of earlier of a more secure, prosperous and just hemisphere. Just as Colombia appears poised to put decades of conflict behind it, the fate of the FTA stands as a vote of confidence in Colombia's future. Our entry into this long-term partnership with Colombia will reinforce Colombia's commitment to pro-market policies. It will bolster the country's democratic institutions by ensuring transparency and respect for workers rights, promoting strong labor and environmental standards, and giving us an important mechanism to monitor compliance so we can work with Colombia to ensure continued progress in these important areas. Most importantly, approving the Free Trade Agreement demonstrates America's enduring commitment to Latin America. On the other hand, rejecting this agreement -- just as Colombia shows signs of emerging from its nightmare past -- would undercut its successes and send precisely the wrong signal to the region. Turning our back on our most loyal ally on the continent would cause countries around the world to question our commitment to the region, and our willingness to go the distance with our friends. The FTA's defeat would be a huge victory for those -- like Hugo Chavez -- who promote an authoritarian, populist, highly personalized model of government, drawing upon the failed economic policies of decades past.

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3 COFTA Politics

Democracy promotion is crucial to avert extinction Diamond, 95 – (Larry, Hoover Institution @ Stanford University, December 1995, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990s.” http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm) This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in the coming years and decades. In the former Yugoslavia nationalist aggression tears at the stability of Europe and could easily spread. The flow of illegal drugs intensifies through increasingly powerful international crime syndicates that have made common cause with authoritarian regimes and have utterly corrupted the institutions of tenuous, democratic ones. Nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons continue to proliferate. The very source of life on Earth, the global ecosystem, appears increasingly endangered. Most of

these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy, with its provisions for legality, accountability, popular sovereignty, and openness. The experience of this century offers important lessons. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations, and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. Democratic countries form more reliable, open, and enduring trading partnerships. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens, who organize to protest the destruction of their environments. They are better bets to honor international treaties since they value legal obligations and because their openness makes it much more difficult to breach agreements in secret. Precisely because, within their own borders, they respect competition, civil liberties, property rights, and the rule of law, democracies are the only reliable foundation on which a new world order of

international security and prosperity can be built.

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4 COFTA Politics

Columbia Passing now Bush is putting pressure on congress- Pelosi wil let it come to a vote Wolfson 2008 (Paula Wolfson, “ Makes Renewed Push for Colombia Free Trade Agreement”, VOA news, staff writer, 22 July 2008) [Ciborowski]

U.S. President George Bush is making a renewed push for Congressional approval of a pending free trade agreement with Colombia. VOA's Paula Wolfson reports he is urging Speaker Nancy Pelosi to allow a vote in the House of Representatives. At a White House event showcasing ties between the Colombian and American people, President Bush made one of his strongest appeals to date for passage of the free trade deal with Colombia. "To demonstrate America's good faith, to stand by our strong friend, to send a clear signal that we appreciate our ally, the United States Congress must approve this free trade agreement," he said. Mr. Bush said it will open up a major duty-free market to American goods, noting that exports remain one of the bright spots in the uncertain U.S. economy. Will pass now- business pressure Reuters 2008 (“Bush urges Congress to approve Colombia trade pact”, Tue Jul 22, 2008, http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2231809520080722) [Ciborowski] WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush on Tuesday urged Congress to move forward on a free trade deal with Colombia, saying failure to approve it was hurting U.S. businesses at a time of economic uncertainty. "Approving this agreement would strengthen our nation's economy," Bush said at a White House event to celebrate Colombian Independence Day. Columbian free trade will pass now- Hostage rescue and trade Riechmann 2008 (DEB RIECHMANN, Jul 22, 2008, “Bush urges Congress to OK Colombia trade pact”, http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iOfjBoHq88ylU7Txf6wCP4FfTNUwD9235NE80, AP Staff writer) [Ciborowski]

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush on Tuesday seasoned his call to Congress to pass a free trade pact with Colombia with a little Latino music. The White House event was billed as a celebration of July 20, 1810, the day Colombia declared its independence from Spain. Bush also noted the Colombian government's recent hostage rescue and kept time with the lively music of Colombian singer Jorge Celedon, accordionist Jimmy Zambrano and their band members. But his main message was trade. Bush said trade between Colombia and the United States is one-sided.

GT Ciborowski

5 COFTA Politics

AT: Pelosi Blocking Columbia Free trade will pass Pelosi likes hostage rescue Reuters 7/3/08 (News agency, 2008) [Ciborowski] The rescue raised White House hopes that House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi might reconsider her opposition to the U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement and schedule a vote soon on the pact. "One of the concerns that she said she's had has been security in Colombia," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said. "We maintain that President (Alvaro) Uribe, since elected -- since he was elected -- has done a tremendous job of improving security there in Colombia." Colombia will pass with bipartisanship support Erika Andersen, staff writer for human events, 7-4-08 (“Colombia Free Trade Agreement in Trouble” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27350) Padilla believes the CFTA deserves a swift vote in Congress, which will prove wide bipartisan support for it. He cited last year’s vote to enact the Peru Free Trade Agreement as an example, noting that even Sen. Barack Obama said he would have voted for it had been present. (Obama was absent due to the presidential primary season campaigning.) “The provisions in the Peru free trade agreement that passed the Congress late last year with very heavy bipartisan support -- I think it was 350 votes in the House,” said Padilla. “So, if it’s got identical provisions, I don’t understand why we wouldn’t also seek support for Colombia.”President Bush said Colombia’s President Uribe has expressed that “approving the free trade agreement is the best way for America to demonstrate our support for Colombia.”Bush noted that people are watching to see what America does here and by not passing the CFTA, America would “Not only abandon a brave ally; it would send a signal throughout the region that America cannot be counted on to support its friends.” Republican presidential candidate John McCain this week released an ad supporting the CFTA and bolstered his credentials by featuring the commercial with a Spanish translation. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama does not support the agreement. “I don’t understand how we can say we want to work with the world and then refuse to pass agreements that are in our own interest with allies,” Padilla said.

GT Ciborowski

6 COFTA Politics

AT: Brazil Civil War 1. No internal link- FARC is collapsing due to failures no risk of civil war Latin American Monitor 2008 (June 2008, Political Risk Analysis, news agency, “FARC Down, But Not Yet Out”, http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/65959/farc-down-but-not-yet-out.html) [Ciborowski]

In recent weeks, the Marxist terrorist group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) has suffered a number of serious setbacks with the death of leader Manuel Marulanda and two other senior leaders of the seven-man secretariat, as well as the surrender of one of the group's senior field commanders. With the group's main patron, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez now calling for it to stand down, we believe the FARC's days are numbered. 2. Brazilian Nuclearzation is inevitable it’s a matter of national pride Muello 2006 (Peter Muello, Associated Press Writer, “Brazil follows Iran's nuclear path, but without the fuss”, 04/20/06, Information Clearing house, http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article12797.htm) [Ciborowski]

Brazilian leaders insist the fuel will be used for the nation's $1 billion nuclear energy industry. Already Latin America's biggest nuclear power provider, Brazil plans up to seven new atomic plants to reduce its dependence on oil and hydroelectric power and plans to export enriched uranium to provide energy for other countries. Brazil initially refused inspections by the International Atomic Energy Association, arguing that providing full access to its state-of-the-art, Brazilian-designed centrifuges would put it at risk of industrial espionage. Since then, IAEA inspectors have visited the plant many times, monitoring the uranium that comes in and out, but they're still prevented from seeing the actual centrifuges, which are covered with opaque screens. The IAEA inspectors have said they're satisfied no material is being diverted. Brazilian physicist Jose Goldemberg said Brazil won't be able to produce enriched uranium for export until 2014. Brazil had great nuclear ambitions during a 1964-85 military dictatorship, when it built the two nuclear energy plants, worked to develop a nuclear submarine and had secret plans to test an atomic bomb in a 1,000-foot-deep, concrete-and steel-lined hole in the Amazon jungle. That idea was formally scrapped in 1990, and former Secretary of State Colin Powell declared in 2004 that ''we know for sure that Brazil is not thinking about nuclear weapons in any sense.'' But Brazil's nuclear ambitions have been rekindled under leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in part, analysts say, because joining the nuclear club would boost Brazil's status internationally and possibly earn it a permanent seat on the Security Council. What is really at stake in both Brazil and Iran is self-image, Goldemberg said. ''It's nationalism, pride. That's the real reason,'' he said.

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7 COFTA Politics

3. Columbian Free trade solves instability and Columbian economic prosperity Paulson 2008 (Head of the U.S. treasury, April 7, 2008, HP-911, “Paulson Statement on Colombian Free Trade Agreement”, http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp911.htm) [Ciborowski]

"I urge the U.S. Congress to show support for the Colombian people and provide greater hope for their future by passing the Colombian free trade agreement without further delay. Congressional approval of the Colombian free trade agreement will reinforce democracy in Latin America by showing support for a key ally who has made significant advancements to combat violence and instability. Leveling the playing field for American farmers, ranchers, and the more than 9,000 U.S. companies exporting to Colombia will also help strengthen our nation's economy."

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8 COFTA Politics

AT: Pelosi Link Turn Pelosi hates hemp she views it as killing the war on drugs Kuipers 2007 (Dean, L.A. Times staff writer, “A Change in the Weather: Progressive Dennis Kucinich takes over a new House subcommittee, signaling changes in national drug”, http://www.lacitybeat.com/cms/story/detail/a_change_in_the_weather/4969/)

Washington insiders, however, are not holding their breath for great upheaval in federal drug policy overall. Sources close to the appointment, who asked not to be named, say that Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other members of the Democratic leadership have effectively embargoed major crime or drug policy legislation for the next two years, to avoid looking soft on crime in the 2008 election. Kucinich, however, is promising a couple years of entertaining and edifying hearings.

GT Ciborowski

9 COFTA Politics

AT: Amazon Turn 1. Brazil is increasing logging- kills all your offense Rohter 2007 (LARRY ROHTER, January 14, 2007, NY Times staff writer, “Brazil Gambles on Monitoring of Amazon Loggers”, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/world/americas/14amazon.html) [Ciborowski]

In theory, 70 percent of the jungle is public land, but miners, ranchers and especially loggers have felt free to establish themselves in unpoliced areas, strip the land of valuable resources and then move on, mostly in the so-called arc of destruction on the eastern and southern fringes of the jungle. But the called-for monitoring of the loggers allowed into the rain forest’s largely untouched center will come from a new, untested Forest Service with only 150 employees and from state and municipal governments. That concerns environmental and civic groups because local officials are more vulnerable to the pressures of powerful economic interests and to corruption. Further, the new system assumes that the world community will also play a part and buy timber only from merchants who are properly licensed and will avoid unscrupulous dealers. 2. Imp Denied- We’ve had logging for a long time in the amazon and we haven’t seen your impacts

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10 COFTA Politics

Terrorism Impact Scenario Columbia Free Trade solves terrorism Andersen 2008 (Erika Andersen, staff writer for human events, “Colombia Free Trade Agreement in Trouble” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27350) [Ciborowski]

By enacting the agreement, America could also decrease import prices, thereby relieving price anxieties on Colombia and helping to improve their economy overall. Economics aside, accepting the CFTA would amp up American national security interests. Colombia has successfully battled the domestic terrorist group FARC by upholding democracy and maintaining free markets under President Alvaro Uribe, who enjoys an 80% approval rating. Colombia is surrounded by dangerous countries like Venezuela, who would be more than happy to assist them in coming up against the US should we prove unreliable. “I think the debate about Colombia is an important litmus test in many ways for whether America is going to remain committed to the policies of openness, the basic idea that we are better as a society because we are open to foreign trade and investment,” Padilla said. Terrorism leads to extinction Sid-Ahmed 2004 Political Analyst, (Mohamed, “Extinction!” Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line, August 26 – September 1, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg /2004/705/op5.htm) Today, the technology is a secret for nobody. So far, except for the two bombs dropped on Japan, nuclear weapons have been used only to threaten. Now we are at a stage where they can be detonated. This completely changes the rules of the game. We have reached a point where anticipatory measures can determine the course of events. Allegations of a terrorist connection can be used to justify anticipatory measures, including the invasion of a sovereign state like Iraq. As it turned out, these allegations, as well as the allegation that Saddam was harbouring WMD, proved to be unfounded. What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.

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11 COFTA Politics

Heg Impact Scenario Failure to pass Columbian free trade allows chavez to deck hegemony Snyder 2008 (Timothy M., International Analyst Network, "No One Needs to Worry": Chavez versus American Primacy," 1-7-2008, www.analyst-network.com /article.php?art_id=1556) [Ciborowski] While Venezuela can threaten the United States directly, its ability to threaten the United States indirectly is the most troublesome. Hugo Chávez has been employing a combination of tactics ranging

from bilateral barter arrangements to creating international institutions parallel to those created by the U.S., all in an effort to supplant U.S. dominant influence in the region with his own. Further, he has been expanding agreements with countries such as China, Iran and Russia to encourage expansion of their investments and thus strategic interests in the region. Chávez’s efforts to spread his influence throughout the region, and his budding relationships with some of

Washington’s largest competitor and adversarial states comprise a concerted effort to limit U.S influence in a region it has dominated since Monroe. If ultimately successful, the marginalization of the United States in South America certainly signals the decline of U.S. primacy. Since coming to power, Chávez has been working hard to increase his influence in the region, gains in which come largely at the expense of American influence. From using barter systems instead of dollar-based trade, to complicating U.S. antinarcotics efforts in the region, Chávez is steadily countering U.S. activities in the region in both economic and security realms. This generally compromises U.S. interests and limits U.S. leverage in South America. Further, a shift of traditional allies and clients away from the U.S. towards another regional power, especially in a region so close to home, appears to herald the

decline of U.S. primacy. Heg collapse causes nuke war Zalmay Khalilzad, U.N. Ambassador, RAND Corporation 1995 , Washington Quarterly, Spring, Lexis Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level conflicts. Finally, U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

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Econ collapse Impact The Columbia FTA would create jobs necessary to sustain the American economy Washington Post, 4/10/08, “Drop Dead, Colombia” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/04/09/AR2008040903638.html THE YEAR 2008 may enter history as the time when the Democratic Party lost its way on trade. Already, the party's presidential candidates have engaged in an unseemly contest to adopt the most protectionist posture, suggesting that, if elected, they might pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared her intention to change the procedural rules governing the proposed trade promotion agreement with Colombia. President Bush submitted the pact to Congress on Tuesday for a vote within the next 90 legislative days, as required by the "fast-track" authority under which the U.S. negotiated the deal with Colombia. Ms. Pelosi says she'll ask the House to undo that rule. That political turf-staking, and the Democrats' decreasingly credible claims of a death-squad campaign against Colombia's trade unionists, constitutes all that's left of the case against the agreement. Economically, it should be a no-brainer -- especially at a time of rising U.S. joblessness. At the moment, Colombian exports to the United States already enjoy preferences. The trade agreement would make those permanent, but it would also give U.S. firms free access to Colombia for the first time, thus creating U.S. jobs. Politically, too, the agreement is in the American interest, as a reward to a friendly, democratic government that has made tremendous strides on human rights, despite harassment from Venezuela's Hugo Chávez.

Economic collapse leads to nuclear war Walter Russell Mead, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, World Policy Institute, 1992 Hundreds of millions – billions – of people have pinned their hopes on the international market economy. They and their leaders have embraced market principles – and drawn closer to the west – because they believe that our system can work for them. But what if it can’t? What if the global economy stagnates – or even shrinks? In that case, we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North, rich against poor. Russia, China, India – these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the 30s.

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13 COFTA Politics

Russia Impact Scenario Russian democracy prevents adventurism Diamond, 95 – senior fellow @ Hoover, prof. poli sci and sociology @ Stanford [Larry, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990’s: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives,” Dec., http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/di.htm] A HOSTILE, EXPANSIONIST RUSSIA Chief among the threats to the security of Europe, the United States, and Japan would be the reversion of Russia--with its still very substantial nuclear, scientific, and military prowess--to a hostile posture toward the West. Today, the Russian state (insofar as it continues to exist) appears perched

on the precipice of capture by ultranationalist, anti-Semitic, neo-imperialist forces seeking a new era of pogroms, conquest, and "greatness." These forces feed on the weakness of democratic institutions, the divisions among democratic forces, and the generally dismal economic and political state of the country under civilian, constitutional rule. Numerous observers speak of "Weimar Russia." As in Germany in the 1920s, the only alternative to a triumph of fascism (or some related "ism" deeply hostile to freedom and to the West) is the development of an effective democratic order. Now, as then, this project must struggle against great historical and political odds, and it seems feasible only with international economic aid and support for democratic forces and institutions.

Russian expansionism causes global nuclear conflicts Cohen, 96 (Ariel, Heritage Foundation, “The New "Great Game": Oil Politics in the Caucasus and Central Asia”, 1/25, http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/BG1065.cfm) Much is at stake in Eurasia for the U.S. and its allies. Attempts

to restore its empire will doom Russia's transition to a democracy and free-market economy. The ongoing war in Chechnya alone has cost Russia $6 billion to date (equal to Russia's IMF and World Bank loans for 1995). Moreover, it has extracted a tremendous price from Russian society. The wars which would be required to restore the Russian

empire would prove much more costly not just for Russia and the region, but for peace, world stability, and security. As the former Soviet arsenals are spread throughout the NIS, these conflicts may escalate to include the use of weapons of mass destruction. Scenarios including unauthorized missile launches are especially threatening. Moreover, if successful, a reconstituted Russian empire would become a major destabilizing influence both in Eurasia and throughout the world. It would endanger not only Russia's neighbors, but also the U.S. and its allies in Europe and the Middle East. And, of course, a neo-imperialist Russia could imperil the oil reserves of the Persian Gulf.15 Domination of the Caucasus would bring Russia closer to the Balkans, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Middle East. Russian imperialists, such as radical nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, have resurrected the old dream of obtaining a warm port on the Indian Ocean. If Russia succeeds in establishing its domination in the south, the threat to Ukraine, Turkey, Iran, and Afganistan will increase. The independence of pro-Western Georgia and Azerbaijan already has been undermined by pressures from the Russian armed forces and covert actions by the intelligence and security services, in addition to which Russian hegemony would make Western political and economic efforts to stave off Islamic militancy more difficult.

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14 COFTA Politics