Bhr Politics Updates

HBR SDI 08

Politics Updates

India/Politics Updates Day 1 India/Politics Updates Day 1...........................................................................................................................................................................................................1 India Deal – India Passed Deal........................................................................................................................................................................................................2 India Deal – No International Approval...........................................................................................................................................................................................3 .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3 India Deal Bad – India Has Approved.............................................................................................................................................................................................4 India Deal Bad – IAEA/NSG Will Approve....................................................................................................................................................................................5 India Deal Bad – Congress Not Pass...............................................................................................................................................................................................6 India Deal Good – Congress Will Pass............................................................................................................................................................................................7 Generic Bush Bad – Laundry List...................................................................................................................................................................................................8 Generic Bush Bad – Bush Losing GOP...........................................................................................................................................................................................9 Generic Bush Good – Victories Now.............................................................................................................................................................................................10

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HBR SDI 08

Politics Updates

India Deal – India Passed Deal India has passed the deal – now it’s up to Congress to pass the deal The Washington Post 7/23 India's Outstretched Hand; New Delhi does its part to salvage a nuclear pact; now it's Congress's turn. Lexis, July 23, 2008

UNTIL RECENTLY, it seemed that an ambitious Bush administration bid to restore nuclear cooperation between the United States and India might be dead, a victim of domestic Indian politics. Anti-American communist parties that support Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's centrist government were blocking the deal. But Mr. Singh took a bold risk to salvage the pact, trading communist support for that of a smaller regional party in hopes of assembling a new majority. Yesterday the gamble paid off, as Mr. Singh's government survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote. Now, the question is whether the pact can survive the American political process. There isn't much time; under U.S. law, Congress must be in session continuously for 30 days to consider the deal. Before that clock can start, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group must give India a green light. While those approvals are likely, they won't happen instantaneously. And because of the long August recess, there may not be more than 30 "legislative days" left before Congress adjourns on Sept. 26. The deal raises many legitimate questions. But, on balance, it is in the United States' interest, and Congress should find the time to say yes -- in a lame-duck session after the November election, if necessary. U.S. nuclear cooperation with India ceased when India, which had refused to sign the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, exploded a nuclear "device" in 1974. The sanctions were intended to show India, and the world, that there was a price to be paid for flouting the treaty. Times change, though, and the Bush administration's logic is that the benefits of a "strategic partnership" with India outweigh the risks of waiving the old rules. If booming India uses more nuclear energy, it will emit less in greenhouse gases. Unlike Pakistan, India has developed its nuclear arsenal without leaking materials or know-how to others. Perhaps the fact that India is a democracy that shares not only values but interests -- checking China, fighting Islamist terrorism -- with the United States matters more than its signature on a treaty. It's a bet worth making, especially since the agreement creates more international supervision of India's nuclear fuel cycle than there would be without it. To be sure, it is a risk. The deal weakens the U.S. threat to cut off uranium if India conducts another nuclear test. India's economic ties and military-to-military contacts with Iran are worrisome, as is its stubborn habit of taking "nonaligned" stances against U.S. interests. But the fact that Mr. Singh successfully ditched the communists for the sake of closer ties with Washington is a hopeful sign that the agreement is already inducing moderation. At this point, if Congress rejects the deal, the likeliest outcome -- in addition to much ill will in New Delhi -- is that India, freshly approved as a customer for technology and fuel

by the IAEA and the Suppliers Group, will simply buy its planned 25,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity from France or Russia. After much delay, Mr. Singh has done his part; now it's Congress's turn.

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HBR SDI 08

Politics Updates

India Deal – No International Approval The NSG is impossible to predict – India could reject after passed BBC 7/19 Indian government open to amending laws to counter US act - sources Lexis, July 19, 2008 Meanwhile, the

government appears satisfied with the response from the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy

Agency (IAEA) and members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) who were briefed by Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon in Vienna Friday. However, it

is not minimising the difficulties that may lie ahead and rejects suggestions that once the Safeguards Agreement is approved by the I.A.E.A., the nuclear deal is on "auto pilot". "We cannot take N.S.G. for granted. It works on the basis of consensus," the sources said. Regretting the "hurry" with which the Left had withdrawn support to the government over the deal, the sources said that even after the approval by the NSG and the US Congress, India had the option of not operationalising the deal if it's final shape did not satisfy Parliament.

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HBR SDI 08

Politics Updates

India Deal Bad – India Has Approved India has passed the deal – up to the IAEA and Congress The Economist 7/26 A tarnished triumph; Indian politics Lexis, July 26, 2008

AFTER a rancorous, sometimes riotous, two-day debate on its most contentious policy, a nuclear co-operation agreement with America, India’s government on July 22nd won a parliamentary vote of confidence. This did not ensure the survival of the vexed agreement, on which George Bush and India’s prime minister, Manmohan Singh, shook hands in July 2005. It still needs the approval of several bodies, including the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But the government’s victory, by 275 votes to 256, with ten abstentions, has probably saved it from strangulation by its Indian opponents. It has also prolonged the government, at least for a bit. A governing coalition led by Mr Singh’s Congress party was on July 9th deserted by its Communist allies, in response to its long-delayed decision to submit the nuclear deal to the IAEA. A tribute to nuclear-armed India’s rising stature, the agreement in effect grants an amnesty on its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), by allowing it to purchase nuclear fuel and technology regardless. But the Communists oppose the deal’s subtext, closer ties with America, and therefore vowed to bring the government down. So the government called the confidence vote to thwart them. The victory was especially glorious

for Mr Singh, who has waged a quiet and lonely campaign for the nuclear agreement, in the teeth of the Communists’ opposition deal—or, more precisely, a safeguards agreement attached to it—is now to go before the IAEA’s board of directors on August 1st. If it approves it, the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group will be asked to waive its rules on nuclear trading for India. America’s Congress would then be asked to give a final blessing—though this may not be possible before Mr Bush’s administration ends in January. and Congress’s indifference. But the

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HBR SDI 08

Politics Updates

India Deal Bad – IAEA/NSG Will Approve IAEA and NSG will approve – support from the chief BBC 7/19 India briefs IAEA, nuclear suppliers on US deal, safeguards Lexis, July 19, 2008 Vienna, 18 July: Lobbying

for the Indo-US nuclear deal, India Friday [18 July] briefed the IAEA board of governors and on the safeguards agreement amid reports there was no sign of opposition to the accord. After discussing with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Chief Muhammad al-Baradi'i the text of the Indiaspecific safeguards accord, Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon told the representatives of 54 countries that the text was a good one. Among the 35 members of the IAEA board of governors, 26 are also part of Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG). The remaining 19 NSG some NSG [Nuclear Suppliers' Group] countries

countries were also invited for the special briefing held at a venue outside the premises of the IAEA secretariat in the run-up to the IAEA board's scheduled meeting in Vienna on 1 August, which will consider the safeguards text for approval. Approval of the India-specific safeguards agreement by the IAEA board is an important step in the operationalization of the nuclear deal. The briefing, which was a closed-door affair, significantly coincided with the third anniversary of the 18 July 2005 India-US civil nuclear understanding. At the briefing, some factual and technical issues were raised by the delegates. Menon is understood to have allayed apprehensions about the fallout of the pact on the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Al-Baradi'i, a strong advocate of the deal, also met US Undersecretary of State William Burns for talks on the nuke accord. Burns, the third-ranking US diplomat, was despatched by the Bush administration for "consultations" on the nuke pact in an attempt to push the deal. Menon's meeting with al-Baradi'i ahead of the special briefing was considered significant because the IAEA chief has endorsed the nuclear deal as a boost for non-proliferation and peaceful use of relatively clean nuclear energy in the developing world.

US will force IAEA approval – Congress will also approve Chauhan 7/22 Swaraaj, International Columnist, India-US Nuclear Deal: Nail-Biting Parliamentary Result Lexis, July 22, 2008 "The

U.S. will urge other board members of the International Atomic Energy Agency to support an inspection plan tied to the accord during a meeting on Aug. 1," State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said in Washington. "The 2005 accord signed between Singh and Bush gives India access to fuel and nuclear reactors without joining the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It would lift restrictions imposed on suppliers to provide India with atomic technologies since it tested a nuclear weapon in 1974 without being listed as an atomic weapons state. "India can

now seek the nuclear deal's approval from the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a mandatory requirement before the U.S. Congress can ratify it. White House spokeswoman Dana Perino predicted approval in Congress should the plans succeed with the IAEA and the 45-nation suppliers group." It was a tough battle for the Indian prime minister who staked his government's survival on the parliamentary vote. And it was a close call. The Congress party-led government won with 275 lawmakers voting for it and 256 against. The number of abstentions was not immediately clear, although not all 543 members of Parliament's lower house took part in the vote. "The vote capped a week of intense politicking that saw the government rename an airport for a lawmaker's father, promise a high-level job to another, and - rival politicians allege - hand out millions of dollars to many others in an effort to survive." Although this landmark development is a major milestone in India-US economic and strategic relationship, nearly half the Indian lawmakers have opposed the deal in its present form. Meanwhile the 'Marketing Guru of the World' Dr. Jagdish Sheth, Professor of Marketing in the Goizueta Business School, Atlanta, USA, today asked India to look at issues in a "multi-centric" way instead of the present US-centric prism. Sheth predicted that India and China, along with the United States, would form the "emerging geoeconomic triad" replacing the US-Canada, European Union and Japan triad. He said the 21st century would certainly belong to 'Large Emerging Nations (LEN)' as the 19th century belonged to America and 18th century to Europe. He said LEN would consist of India, China, Russia, Brazil and other emerging countries. Author of the famous book 'Chindia Rising: How China and India will benefit your business', Dr Sheth predicted redefining of capitalism and democracy with compassionate capitalism, disciplined democracy and worldwide rise of spiritualism.

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HBR SDI 08

Politics Updates

India Deal Bad – Congress Not Pass US Congress will not approve the deal Kessler 7/9 Glenn, Washington Post Staff Writer, Congress May Not Pass U.S.-India Nuclear Pact; New Delhi Could Turn to Other Nations Lexis, July 7, 2008

India's civil nuclear agreement with the United States may have cleared a key hurdle in New Delhi this week, but it appears unlikely to win final approval in the U.S. Congress this year, raising the possibility that India could begin nuclear trade with other countries even without the Bush administration's signature deal, according to administration officials and congressional aides.

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India Deal Good – Congress Will Pass India deal will pass – Indian approval and Congress Dolnick 7/23 Sam, Associated Press Writer, US hopes India nuclear energy deal can be sent to Congress for approval in September Lexis, July 23, 2008

The U.S. ambassador to India said Wednesday he hoped a landmark deal on nuclear energy cooperation with the United States could be sent to Congress for approval in September, one day after India's government won a confidence vote that paves the way for the agreement to move forward. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was forced to call the confidence vote after communist political parties withdrew their support for his government this month to protest the agreement, fearing it would draw India closer to the U.S. On Wednesday, several key Indian political parties, including the communists, said they were forming an alliance to oppose the government. Though Singh made enemies in his bid to push ahead with the nuclear deal, he had the backing of India's powerful business community. Markets surged Wednesday as business leaders and investors anticipated a slew of economic changes that had been stalled because of the government's nowdefunct alliance with the communists. The nuclear pact would end more than three decades of nuclear isolation for India, opening its civilian reactors to international inspections in exchange for the nuclear fuel and technology it has been denied because of its refusal to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and its testing of atomic weapons. India imports about 75 percent of its oil, and Singh has argued the country needs the nuclear deal to power its financial growth and lift hundreds of millions of its 1.1 billion citizens out of poverty. To finalize the deal, India must strike separate agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency as well as the Nuclear Suppliers Group of countries that export nuclear material. Then the U.S. Congress will need to approve the accord. U.S. Ambassador David Mulford said Washington hoped New Delhi would quickly finalize the deal so it

could be presented to Congress for approval in early September.

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HBR SDI 08

Politics Updates

Generic Bush Bad – Laundry List Bush lacks political capital, public support and congressional support Lightman 7/20 David, McClatchy Newspapers, Despite White House rhetoric, experts see little getting done in Bush's final months Lexis, July 20, 2008

The White House wants the American public to think it's on the rebound, scoring important triumphs in Iraq and North Korea and on domestic spying while taking tough stands on oil drilling and relief for homeowners. Experts and polls, however, say the White House is wrong; President Bush hasn't begun a comeback. "All this is pretty much a lot of noise. He's going out with a whimper," said Erwin Hargrove, presidential scholar at Vanderbilt University and the author of "The Effective President." Adam Warber, professor of political science at Clemson University, had similar thoughts. "It's very difficult for him now. His public approval is so poor, he doesn't really have a lot of political capital," Warber said. Congress is run by Democrats reluctant to give Bush any domestic victories, and his approval ratings have remained at or near a dismal 30 percent for about a year.

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HBR SDI 08

Politics Updates

Generic Bush Bad – Bush Losing GOP Bush is losing the GOP base – making compromises on policies with Democrats Eggen 7/21 Dan, writer for Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), A more conciliatory Bush emerges Lexis, July 21, 2008

WITH his latest initiatives involving Iraq, Iran and North Korea, the US President, George Bush, has accelerated a shift toward centrist foreign policies, a change that has cheered Democrats, angered some Republicans and roiled the presidential campaign. Mr Bush sent his first high-level emissary to sit in on nuclear talks with Iran, which ended without agreement on Saturday. He also agreed for the first time on Friday to set a "time horizon" for withdrawing troops from Iraq, and authorised the Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, to join North Korean diplomats at six-party talks about ending that country's nuclear weapons program. The maneuvers underscore how much the Bush Administration has changed since 2002, when the President proclaimed Iraq, Iran and North Korea to be an "axis of evil". Many Democrats view the developments as evidence that Mr Bush is moving closer to military and diplomatic policies long advocated by their likely presidential nominee, Senator Barack Obama. At the same time, the moves have agitated conservatives, including some former administration officials, who believe that he has abandoned principles set forth during his first term to embrace a more accommodating posture pushed by Dr Rice and her supporters. John Bolton, a former US ambassador for Mr Bush who has become one of his most vocal

conservative critics, likened the developments to breaches in a dam that is about to burst. "Once the collapse begins, adversaries have a real opportunity to gain advantage," he said on Saturday. "In terms of the Bush presidency, this many reversals this close to the end destroys credibility ... It appears there is no depth to which this administration will not sink in its last days."

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HBR SDI 08

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Generic Bush Good – Victories Now Bush is winning victories now Eggen and Kane 7/13 Dan and Paul; Washington Post Staff Writers, Recent Bush Victories Smell of Compromise; Lately, President Employs a Little-Used Tool Lexis, July 13, 2008

The decider has become the compromiser. President Bush has racked up a series of significant political victories in recent weeks, on surveillance reform, war funding and an international agreement on global warming, but only after engaging in the kind of conciliation with opponents that his administration has often avoided. With less than seven months left in office, Bush is embracing such compromises in part because he has to. Faced with persistently low public approval ratings, a Democratic Congress and wavering support among Republicans, he and his aides have given ground on key issues to accomplish broader legislative and diplomatic goals, according to administration officials, legislative aides and political experts. "To get something done or to get what you want or most of what you want, you've got to compromise," said Nicholas E. Calio, who served as Bush's first legislative affairs director. "The president and the White House are very focused on getting things done, and they don't abide the notion that he's a lame duck." Bush's willingness to compromise remains limited, and he has threatened to veto several key measures winding through Congress, from Medicare payments to housing reform. Yet any hint of accommodation is notable for a president who has often pursued a confrontational strategy with Congress -- even when it was in GOP hands -- and who has stood behind an unpopular war and go-it-alone policies abroad.

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