Urbanisation - A Threat To Civil Order And Economics

Urbanisation: A threat to Civil Order and Economies Urbanisation: 1. The process of the formation and growth of cities,

2. The change in a country or region when its population migrates from rural to urban areas, 3. The proportion of a region's population that live in towns and cities; the rate at which this proportion is growing. There are various predictions about the percentage of the world’s population that will permanently reside in urban and sub-urban areas by 2030 and these predictions range from 60% (United Nations) to 50% by French economist Philippe Bocquier. Without doubt there is a growing movement of rural based populations moving to urban areas and this gives growing concern to governments and development organisations alike. Examination of partially completed CIA documentation shows that in 2008 the average percentage of urbanisation was near to 58% (range 17% Ethiopia to 92% Argentina) and in line with the United Nations predictions, although their prediction was for 2030 and the CIA was for 2008. It is clear that the global recession of the 1 st and 2nd decades of the new millennia will dramatically increase the likelihood of greater urbanisation of mainly economic migrants. Increased urbanisation will also put very serious stress on social services, sanitation, clean water provision and employment in host communities and the affect of these must not be underestimated. Local economics and the lack of resources is the usual reason why many migrate from the rural areas, either to seek employment and/or to seek better education and health support systems. The present levels of urbanisation are of great concern to civil authorities in that the ability to respond to this migration is very limited and that the level of urban migrants far exceeds the service provision in water, sanitation, education, health, infrastructure and land resources.

The map above shows the extent of global urbanisation and where in most continents the urbanisation is centred and although this neither emphasises the density ratios and land resources, it can be found that even those countries with vast land resources find that the majority of their population is urbanised. The increasing trend of urbanisation as depicted in CIA documentation highlights areas where there is an increase in the annual percentage migrating to the urban areas with Europe reasonably stable and many parts of Africa and Southeast Asia showing marked increases.

Consequences: The consequences of uncontrolled urban migration must be of concern to central and local governments as the existing quality of life can only be degraded by these increases and in many urban areas, the quality of life is already very low. The threat to services is of paramount concern with the following services put under increasing strain. -

Potable water Sanitation Health services Education services Safety regulations Civil order Infrastructure Urban planning

As the above list indicates, the services provided are crucial to maintaining and improving lifestyles in the urban areas and the present rate of urban migration would indicate that few, if any local or central governments would be able to respond to the increased demand, given that in many countries, these services are already at critical level and apt to fail completely. The increase in urban residents also puts considerable strain on the number of unemployed and thus the ability to create income for family sustainability and this, in turn, creates situations where families and in some case, whole communities, are impoverished, hungry and volatile. Hungry and volatile communities are a threat to civil order and as has been seen in some countries, violence has broken out, although not always due to internal migrants, but have been directly associated with external migrants from areas of stress or conflict. A recent (2006) United Nations document showed that 68% of all countries (developed and developing) had access to clean water and that 37% had improved sanitation and there have been increasing concerns about the decline in available clean water sources and this can only add stress to an already dire situation. It has been estimated that up to 3 billion people have very limited or no access to potable water resources and map ‘A’ gives a good indication of where the main resources are and perhaps, why fewer people every year have reduced access. With rice being one of the major staple foods, restricted agricultural access to water is critical.

A

B

The two world maps shown above, depict ‘A’ the areas of the world with water retention capabilities and ‘B’ the distribution of wetlands throughout the world and these show that the ability of the soil to retain sufficient water is in crisis and that alternative means of water provision will need to be considered. Care should be given to excavating deeper to find water as, as has been found in Bangladesh, heavy metal pollution of water caused severe problems in the communities where these were excavated. It is also likely that the existing urban areas will have few or finite water resources, other than coastal areas where the desalination of seawater can be considered. Where it is possible to determine the human occupation there is more likelihood that comparisons can be made to ascertain areas where urban communities could be better tolerated. Urbanisation does not only affect the urban communities as the ability to provide potable water and food is critical to the survival and probable expansion of the urban areas, as shortages of these important items inevitably leads to social stress and civil disorders. There are varying opinions of food production’s ability to maintain an increasing annual global population rate of 1.18% (range -0.85% to +3.69%) estimated for 2009 (CIA documentation) and in general, the opinions tend to be pessimistic and as has already been seen; in some developing countries food riots have caused fatalities and in some developed countries restrictions made on bulk purchases of dry foods. With the global recession expected to last for a number of years, with a longer lasting effect on developing countries and a general downturn in manufacturing, the effect on the urban communities will ensure that these remain filled with the low income and impoverished families, only to decline further, as the ripple effect or the recession increases. With less employment, higher priced food, less access to clean water, higher cost health services, inability to afford school costs and a reduction on expenditure in social services and infrastructure maintenance, there can be little doubt that these communities are a severe threat to civil disorder and that governments may have to take severe responses in order to control threat situations.

C

Maps ‘C’ (1994) and ‘D’ (2000) show the areas of human population and the hotspots under stress, with map ‘E’ showing the impact of humans on the world. These two maps highlight the areas where the migrants are more likely to depart from, with internal migration paramount at first, followed later by external migration. Map ‘C’ also highlights areas (green and grey) where population density is low and where, given a opportunity to promote sustainability, migrants may find a future.

(NOTE: Maps ‘A’, ‘B’, ‘C’, ‘D’, ‘E’, ‘F’ and ‘G’ are copied from the United States Department of Agriculture – Natural Resources Conservation Service – Soil Survey Division – World Soil Resources)

D

E

Map ‘E’ shows the impact of humans to be greatest in Asian and Chinese continents with some stress showing within the wider European continent, highlighted in maps ‘C’ and ‘D’. On a direct comparison with map ‘A’ and ‘B’, this shows that the areas of highest human population are also areas where water resources are limited. Where there are finite resources of water there is also stress to food production systems, making dependence on the importation of food and a consequential stress on local economies, especially in areas with a low manufacturing capability.

F

From the foregoing maps it is clear that some areas are or will come under great environmental stress and the following USDA map highlights some of these areas.

G

Many of the areas highlighted in ‘Major Land Resource Stresses’ map the central area of Africa, the northern part of South America, Europe and large areas with the United States of America are main food production areas and should be subject to research that would answer some of the questions raised regarding the sustainability of these areas. All of the foregoing USDA maps show the situations during the last few years and although they may include some forward thinking, they do not take into account the added global stress that will be caused by the global climate change, especially with raised temperatures and seawater levels. Water for drinking and agricultural production will be a defining factor of those areas that are more likely to survive the long term effects of climate change and given the benefit of water resources mapping, it is possible to determine where migrants may head towards. Without doubt, the increase in migration will also affect governments and political attitudes and it must be up to the United Nations collective to format an acceptable agreement with individual governments to allow increases in migrant numbers. Water for agriculture is a topic for research, inasmuch that more drought tolerant varieties will need to be developed, especially in the staple food sector, as will soil management techniques need to be improved throughout the majority of the developing countries. Water from the sea is an option for coastal communities but is not an option for landlocked areas. Deep boreholes are apt to produce poisoned water, although it is possible that science may assist in developing methods of ‘cleaning’ up the water for use. Within the next two decades, governments will have to decide whether or not they are going to provide large funds for developing sustainable food sources, or, on the other hand will have to decide whether or not they are prepared to allow food resources for their own to be sustained and leave the rest to the world to the law of the jungle; with the humanitarian consequences involved. Developing nations only have the power of their mineral resources to bargain with and it is expected that wholesale nationalisation of these will ensue, in order to maintain a bargaining stance.

H

Maps ‘H’ (2005) shows the soil types of the world and from this it is possible to determine areas where agriculture could be developed and ‘I’ shows the areas where the world’s most undernourished reside.

I

All of the maps, when put together, show the perilous state of the world’s basic resources and that it is now probably beyond the world authorities to be able to address and change the situation and all of this in the light of the latest developments in climate change forecasts. The majority of data resources for human population growth rates show that by 2043 or 2044 there will be 10 billion people from 6.8 billion in 2010, an increase in 32% and which, is not sustainable even with improved basic resource provision measures being put in place immediately. This again, inevitably

leads to the conclusion that the law of the jungle; survival of the ablest, will be promoted, albeit being unannounced. Map ‘D’ shows the areas of the world under stress and this includes a greater part of the European continent and this raises questions about allowing the ablest to survive; being as this area is ‘developed’ as opposed to other major areas that are ‘developing’ or underdeveloped. The European continent also has the advantage of an ‘economic community government’ system that represents a majority of the individual countries and is bound by moral judgement to assist its members in avoiding the worst effects of recessions, climate changes and food shortages; whether or not these may be at the cost of developing nations. Africa: Using the established United Nations and CIA population expansion rates and averaging these; in Africa in 2009 there will be 1.01 billion people and in 2044 there will be 2.2 billion, an increase of 1.19 billion (or 117.81%). (2044 is the year in which the world population will reach 10 billion) By 2044 clean water or food security in Africa cannot be achieved and the income from the mineral resources will not be sufficient to allow rapid development of food security; even if these assets are nationalised and exploited and the idea that the Chinese, Indians and others will allow their much sought after investments to be returned; either by law or compensation. If it is possible to reduce the individual population expansion rates by 10%, by 2044 there will be 2.033 billion people in Africa, an increase of 1.02 billion (or 101.17%). If the individual population expansion rates could be reduced by 10% it is very unlikely that much of a difference would be noted in the risk to the provision of basic food and water resources. Out of 33 African countries that have published their unemployment figures (2008), the rates range from Morocco at 2.1% to Zimbabwe at 85.0%, with an average of 28.9% and these are figures from before the global recession and it is probable that these figures are more likely to be in the region of 40% and increasing. Conflict:

“When the missionaries came to Africa they had the Bible and we had the land. They said, “Let us pray.” We closed our eyes. When we opened them we had the Bible and they had the land.” Bishop Desmond Tutu In some way, the statement (above) made by Desmond Tutu encompasses what is wrong in Africa and has been at the root cause of many of the conflicts for many years. Where tribal conflict has been seen, this has often occurred due to the long ago invasion by colonialists who divided up traditional tribal lands, creating the inevitable tension that has followed and stayed. The map (left) shows the present day areas where some form of armed conflict is ongoing, be it by governments or insurgent and/or tribal groups. The West has not been unable to successfully intervene nor has the African Union (AU) and in the case of the African Union, tribalism has a lot to do with their failures. Of the African continent only

one country (Morocco) is not a member, although a few are suspended. With the current global recession, conflict situations can only increase and with the ‘at arm’s length’ involvement of the West and the inability of the African Union to take a leading role can only disappoint those that wish to see peace in the continent. The weakness of the African Union only exacerbates the conflict situation and this weakness must be addressed. With conflict comes greater urbanisation where community members flee to the relative safe areas in the urban and sub-urban areas and in turn, create local conflict over employment opportunity and resource sharing. That these communities now contain the original inhabitants, conflict and economic

migrants is of great concern as the entailed poverty of the majority is a breeding ground for terrorism. Both internal and external migration puts greater pressure on urban areas and local governments have given up the work of provisioning the basic services. The situation in Zimbabwe has its own roots, again based on colonialism, but considerably inflated by a dictatorial government based on tribalism. The map (right) shows the African colonised situation during the late 1800’s with swathes of land dominated by the English and French nations, with only Ethiopia having retained its sovereignty throughout. Today, the once held Belgium colony of The Democratic Republic of Congo remains a nation of violence and inter-tribal conflict, with the United Nations, nor any other body, being unable to bring any modicum of peace and as long as the vast mineral wealth of this area is being exploited by the tribal interests, nothing will be resolved. Mineral wealth is at the root of many of the internal conflicts in Africa and with cash rich international nations vying for the spoils in Africa, these conflicts will continue and both urban and rural communities will suffer the consequences. Africa has abundant mineral resources and still discovers more each year, whilst the West has few and yet the African nations seem powerless to regain control of their own mineral assets.

(http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/sub-saharan-africa-mineral-resources-and-political-instability Philippe Rekacewicz, Le Monde Diplomatique)

The map (above) gives a guide to the much sought after mineral resources of the African continent, together with some of the conflict areas and shows the richness of these resources and the vast area over which they are to be found. That few Africans benefit, other than as a cheap labour resource, is because of the financial power of the conglomerates in their ability to bully the African governments into giving very low tax rates, subsidised power and the ability to ignore labour laws. That these conglomerates have small ‘development’ projects does little to balance the vast profits that they take out of the countries.

The Populations: Using the information from the United Nations and the CIA World Fact Book regarding the world population shows some interesting facts about the ratio of male to female structure and a comparison between the world, Europe and Africa shows a marked contrast in the male to female ratio, with Europe having a larger percentage of females. Male to Female population structure: 2009 (est.) World Europe Africa

Percentage Male 50.24% 48.96% 50.04%

Percentage Female 49.76% 51.04% 49.96%

Male to Female population age range structure: 2009 (est.) World Europe Africa

0 to 14 13.90% 8.00% 20.43%

Male 15 to 64 32.94% 33.85% 28.13%

65 + 3.36% 7.11% 1.48%

0 to 14 13.18% 7.57% 20.00%

Female 15 to 64 32.30% 33.44% 28.09%

65 + 4.28% 10.03% 1.88%

Using the same CIA fact book, highlights the male to female ratio relative to age ranges and these show that Europe has a particular problem regarding those over the age of 65 years and that, it is the middle range (15 to 64) that is expected to support the social needs of the over 65’s, putting severe pressure on government budgets, especially in a recession when revenues are lower. In Europe, the CIA World Fact Book shows that 17.3% of the population is over the age of 65 years in comparison to a world average of 7.6%. Of greatest concern to governments must be the level of health service provision required for the over 65’s and the possible intrusion into budgets for education and other services.

No nation can continue to support an increasingly older population from existing resources without other (and equally important) social services suffering: The following table shows the average ratio of males to females and highlights the large disparity of males to females in the 65 + age range, with many more females living a longer life and the comparison between Africa and World show the difference in this age range is universal. 2009 (est.)

Africa World

At Birth 103/100 105/100

.- 15 years 102/100 104/100

15 - 64 98/100 100/100

65 + 77/100 78/100

T Pop. 99/100 99/100

(Note: the statistics for ‘World’ are minus 6 Arabian countries due to figures distorted by the populations being enlarged by migrant workers – statistics from CIA World Fact Book) The averaged male/female ratios show many variations, such as those for Russia (below) as an example. 2009 (est.) At Birth 0 -15 15 -64 65 + T. Pop Russia 106/100 105/100 92/100 44/100 86/100 Analysing the overall population statistics shows (table below) the significant differences in the percentages of numbers in the age ranges. This again highlights European governments as having to provide a higher percentage economic support social services for the over 65’s. However, in much of Asia and Africa there are little or no social support services for the over 65’s and this may highlight the earlier death rates. The table also shows that in the range 15 to 64 age range Europe has a high percentage in this range and thus more likely to be in employment and paying the taxes used to provide social services.

% of Population

World Europe Africa

0-14

15-64

65 +

28.97% 16.31% 40.76%

63.55% 67.77% 54.91%

7.49% 15.92% 4.32%

With an increased demand for governments to provide social services and resources, comes the need to create employment in order to increase the number of taxpayers and during economic recession these opportunities are reduced. The lower percentage of the 15 to 65 range in Africa also affects the ability of governments to improve infrastructures, including urban planning and implementation. Thus, we have (on average) 63.5% of the population dependent on employment opportunity in order to support 36.5% and of the 63.5%, 13.2% are unemployed.

If agricultural production is to be increased, decisions will have to be made as to where it is possible to undertake the vast schemes on large tracts of land to be able to meet the needs. The changes in global climate may allow sub-tropical agriculture to move north, leaving half of the southern hemisphere able to grow drought resistant crops only and relying on Canada and Russia to grow the wheat and many of the temperate crops.

The additional burden of global climate change: Although the changes in global climate will not have a dramatic effect by 2040, the small changes that will occur, will affect the daily lifestyles of many of the impoverished in that there will be less staple foods available and that groundwater sources will be less and this may exacerbate migration to the urban areas. Some governments have put restrictions on the export of rice which 3 billion of the present day 6.8 billion depend on as their staple food. Rice is particularly prone to changes in climate, given that day and night time temperature rises reduce yield and as many rice production areas are in the low delta areas, saltwater percolation will also cause longer term problems as the sea level rises. As maps ‘A’ and ‘B’ show, the land for agricultural production is finite and without further land clearance the amount of foods produced will not match the population expansion and the world’s wetlands will also decline or become affected by salination. However, it is clear that there are areas of the globe where agricultural production could be extended and improved and it is also clear that conserving the unspoilt environment is at risk from the demand of greater food production. Conclusions: There can be few doubts that the developed nations can or will be able to undertake the rescue of the developing nations to combat poverty, mineral exploitation, urbanisation or in the provision of the basic necessities of life and that, as a consequence, the developing nations will inevitably be left to fend for themselves. Survival of the ablest will be the hidden agenda of the United Nations and other ‘world’ bodies and that, those with the most cash resources will dominate the international scene for many decades to come. That millions are likely to die of starvation will be seen as a consequence of the previous lethargic state of the world leaders and greed of the developed nations and conglomerates to exploit the mineral resources of developing nations.

Put simply; no nation or organisation has the physical or political resources to be able to implement a package of the size required and in time to have any sustainable effect on urbanisation: Of the major populated countries with a total population of 5.526 billion in 2009, 2.71 billion (50.9%) will live in urban areas. By 2044 when the total world population is expected to reach 10 billion, of these, 5.882 billion will be urbanised, based on the urban growth rates provided in the CIA World Fact Book. Therefore, in 35 years from 2009 the urban areas will be expected to absorb a further 3.313 billion people and it is probable that this number will be surpassed, due to increasing poverty,

conflict and climate changes. With world economies suffering recession and also the mineral assets in reduced demand, revenues and employment opportunity will decline and with these, development projects will be put back for many years, assuming that economies recover sufficiently to be able to restart investment in urban services and infrastructures. That more of the poor rural communities will become abandoned is inevitable, despite the need to grow more food and yet, there is a slight movement by the richer to move out of the urban areas. The poorest will converge on the nearest urban areas to industrial centres seeking employment where none exists and these will add to the growing shantytowns, where social services will collapse. In 2008 a rise in ‘food riots’ was seen and these will increase and be, in the first instance, directed towards the urban migrants and secondly towards the governments. There are few examples of riots over potable water and as more people are short of water rather than food, this seems strange, although some of the previous riots may have included safe water sources. However the statistics are presented and the varying ways in which they will be interpreted, there can be no doubt that there are severe consequences for failing to address many of the poverty and urbanisation problems during the 1900’s and although a survival of the ablest silent manifesto will be denied, no nation or international organisation has the ability to respond, either politically or financially to the needs. If, as is stated, the population of the world reaches 10 billion during 2043/2044, there will not be sufficient food produced to be able to feed a sustainable diet to 10 billion people and the intervening period of 35 years is also insufficient time in which to improve agricultural output to meet the needs. Of the global population it is the urban communities that will suffer from the consequences of these shortages and from this, the fear is that civil unrest will grow and may grow beyond the power of the authorities to deal with it and maintain peace. Another factor that should be taken into consideration is the seasonal opportunity for employment which urban dwellers depend on. During certain seasons, work and thus income generation, employment opportunity goes down in the agricultural, construction and fishing industries and creates further stress within the urban areas. A research project within the Philippines showed the consequences of the seasonal work opportunity over one year with only four months of full employment opportunity, when the weather was suitable for all industries to permit full employment. With a majority of a population dwelling in urban and sub-urban areas and dependent on seasonal employment, the loss of employment opportunity becomes greater as more migrate to the urban areas; creating areas of positive and probably permanent stress levels, for which governments have no answer. The trend of urbanisation has worrying consequences for government authorities with breakdowns of civil order, over which some elements the authorities have little control, as much of these elements are in the hands of the private sector. Anatomy of a Province: Walker 2005

Core Studies – April 2009 References: : CIA World Fact Book : United Nations : United States of America Department of Agriculture : Philippe Rekacewicz, (Le Monde Diplomatique) : Anatomy of a Province, Walker 2005