Climate Change, Migration And Global Economies

Clima te C han ge, Mig r ation a nd Glo bal Ec on omies

Map 1

Since the 1990’s there has been a steady increase in the number of people that have migrated and until now, these have been predominantly economic and conflict migrants, escaping areas where economic depression has been unable (in their view) to support sustainable employment opportunities to be able to support a family; or where people have been forced to flee areas of great conflict, that in turn, are also areas of economic depression. Map 1 (above) shows the general global picture of migration gains and losses as of 2008/09 and highlights the trend of migrants towards the developed economies. The global economic recession of the first decade of the 21st century has added to the number of economic migrants and, as has been seen, there is a greater number of violent conflicts adding refugees to the number of displaced peoples and yet, these numbers are small in comparison to the number of people that will migrate, as the global climate changes take effect. There can be few people who have not experienced climate change in some form or another, although only a small percentage of the people have any real knowledge about these changes or realise that it is happening. Many seem to be aware that temperatures will rise and for some, these mean better and longer summers, in which to enjoy the seaside and other outdoor activities. This view is short sighted and shows that governments should do more to educate a general populace as to the extremes of climate change. Many also see only a very

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small percentage of the changes and wonder what the fuss is all about and yet everyone knows that these small changes will alter the lifestyles of nations. By now, some are aware that the level of the sea will rise and of these, some are aware that the melting of the ice caps will contribute; however, few take into account that when water heats it expands and that the seas will rise due to this expansion, adding many inches. No one should assume that large numbers of migrants will add to the economies of the host countries, as many of the migrants will be parasites on host governments and only the informal (black) economy will grow, leaving governments revenues depleted of income and yet, expected to provide basic resources for the migrants. As temperatures rise agriculture will suffer most from the evaporation of soil moisture and loss of available water sources to be able to allow irrigation. Added to this, the violence of tropical type storms will add soil erosion and general instability of soil structures. Temperature rises will also crucially affect the yields of the basic cereal crops due to lack of moisture to fill the grains and earlier ripening due to the higher temperatures. Already one of the world’s most important cereal crops, rice, is experiencing yield losses due to temperature rises and the percolation of saltwater into the soils; for every one degree rise in Celsius temperature at night, rice yield has reduced by 10% to 15% and with one third of the world’s population dependent on rice, as a staple food, this is of serious concern. As much as rice is a food crop, it is also a ‘cultural’ crop in Asia, as is maize to Africa and South America.

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The Population:

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Many institutions are predicting that by the year 2040 the total population of the world will be 9.3 billion from a population in 2009 of 6.8 billion. It is not known how these institutes arrived at the figure of only 9.3 billion, as using a combination of United Nations and CIA statistics, the population in 2040 will be 9.984 billion and this uses the individual country’s population expansion rates. Overall, the world’s population expansion rate isshows aroundthat 1.22% annum This table by per 2040, India’s (range 3.69% to -0.85%) and using this rate alone givespopulation a population of 9.7 billion. will have exceeded that of China Exp % 2009 2040 due to a greater rate of population expansion China 0.61% 1,338,612,968 1,606,532,434 and that Africa will have exceeded both, with India 1.52% 1,166,079,217 1,833,480,636 an annual expansion rate of 2.15% Africa 2.15% 1,010,798,816 2,003,018,088 Clearly, the world’s finite food resources cannot support this number of people without vastly expanding the land area put to agricultural production and part of this increase needs to include large areas of grazing to allow for the increased demand in meat products, a part of the demand comes from the oriental states, as their per capita wealth improves and they demand a greater percentage of meat in their diet. Although the changes in global climate will allow an increase in production of food throughout Canada and Russia and possible the rainforest areas of Brazil and central Africa, this would involve environmental issues that may not be found to be acceptable to western countries. Consensus on population totals at any given time in the future are not easily achieved, as most that are producing these figures are using different prediction models, although it may be possible to get nearer a general consensus by looking at the various prediction models. With the general annual population rate in Europe at 0.11% (2009) it is assumed that the European population will be stable, but this leaves aside the probable increase in migration to Europe from Africa and Asia. As food, water and basic service supplies become more fragile, more people will migrate and it to the developed countries where they will head to, whether or not they would be welcomed. Central and southern Europe will see the majority of migrants arriving in the area and European governments will have to respond. Given that at one time, there will be mass migration in countries that will be most affected by food and water shortages, there needs to be means by which these migrations can be better predicted and thus common indicators are required. At first, there will be internal migration, with communities moving to areas where food and water are more likely to be available and the employment opportunity that would provide the necessary means to purchase food. This, on its own will cause many problems to civil authorities to control and possibly with the assistance of the military. This inevitably will be followed by external migration and on the larger continents; this will be extremely difficult to control and will be the cause of many conflicts, probably leading to local wars. Africa, Central and South America, Europe and Central Asia will be most affected by food related civil conflicts and influxes of migrants. It therefore comes down to land resources x population x agricultural production potential and many parts of the world will be shown to have relatively high populations and low land resources and agricultural production potential and thus, migration from these areas will be high, as will probable high rates of death, due to food and water shortages and the world unions will not be able to respond to these needs. It therefore becomes important to be able to predict, using indicators, As the map (below) shows, there are certain areas of the world (2009 shown) where there are already millions of people that are undernourished and the change in global climate will dramatically increase these problems.

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If food is thought to be a major restraint in being able to maintain a growing world population, the potable water situation is worse than this and potable water may become more valuable than fossil fuel oils and it may be that food and water shortages will cause major conflicts between nations. Some countries are looking ahead to the potential of desalinating seawater and using this in the potable water systems to replace rain or underground water sources. As an example, Jordan is implementing a system by which it will pump seawater The history of the Earth as a planet has gone through many cycles with species evolving and dying, whether due to natural phenomenon or not and yet, other species have evolved to take the place of those that have become extinct. Species may have evolved that have bred themselves out of existence by being dependent on one or more sources of food or environment and the primate species could be an example of this; by over breeding and dependent on declining food resources. As an example Lake Victoria in the mid 1990’s was overrun by water hyacinth, clogging access to ports and denying the fishermen the ability to provide food. A small South American weevil (of the Neochetina family) was introduced that lived only on the water hyacinth plant and once established the weevil killed out most of the water hyacinth plant population and thus, the weevil main food source. The consequence of this being that the weevil was so successful in destroying its main food source, it destroyed the weevil’s ability to survive in great numbers. The weevil still exists on Lake Victoria on a small patch of water hyacinth where its numbers are maintained and the area of weed is also stable. From this, it may be assumed that despite man’s vast ability to survive, its food resources are in decline and neither man nor plant species can survive until there is a natural balancing of users against provisions. However, it is often assumed that the planet needs man and nothing could be further from the truth and it is man that, if it wishes to survive must allow the natural course of events to unfold and this means survival of the fittest and back to the laws of the jungle, if there is any jungle left. And of those that survive, it will be the rich western nations that will dominate the remaining resources, leaving the poorest nations to survive as best they can.

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One of the greatest hurdles to overcome is the apathy of communities towards the effects of global warming and the general opinion that those that have been giving the warnings are ‘tree huggers’ and are exaggerating the situation and the general public have become inured to the greater urgency shown by the professionals. There is also the situation whereby too many are intend on funding their daily needs and the immediate needs within their own community, that global problems play no part in their daily thinking and that, they feel that they have no useful role to play in addressing the needs of global warming. There is also a general belief that it is up to governments to fix things, as surely, that’s what they pay their taxes for. Temperature changes: Most scientific authorities that are predicting the general rise in temperature use 2000 as the point from which they have estimated the amounts and these vary between 2.25oC to 4.75oC and any of these will have a serious effect on the ability to produce food.

That so many scientific authorities agree that climate change is about to affect every part of the globe shows that serious consideration should be given to their predictions.

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However, not every scientific authority agrees that the climate of the globe will change and many state that the sun is cooling and thus, the world will also cool. Very few have been able to state how much of any changes that may occur are natural changes and would have occurred, regardless of man’s interference. It’s true enough to say that during the first half of the 20th century, few had the concept that man’s influence was having a detrimental effect on the global climate and that during the second half of the 20th century the warnings were generally ignored. There are those that believe that the testing of nuclear bombs changed the equations and very little is spoken about this and it can probably be stated that the general population has been kept in the dark about some of the effects of man’s interference and yet, the general population has, to some extent, has happily ignored those that gave the initial warnings. For those in the international natural resources development profession that have practical experience of working in the developing nations; change in climates have been seen to occur, causing changes in food production with its effect on local communities and within the most at risk communities, migration has been noted towards the urban areas and it is this that must cause the greatest concern. However, it is not only the change in climate that has affected local migration, as there are many other factors that have added to the drift of rural populations to urban areas. Improved education has enhanced expectations in young people, who no longer want to work on the land. Improved social service provision in the urban areas has also drawn rural people townward. The development of mineral resource extraction has attracted many rural people towards industrial centres in the hope of getting work. The lack of rural development together with an increase in rural population birth rate has driven many to seek opportunities in the larger towns and cities, putting at risk the improvement in social service provision. By ‘Western’ standards the improvements in both education and social service provision have not been seen to have had much affect and yet these very important improvements in developing countries may also be the very reason why they will fail as more migrate to the urban areas. Governments are unable to respond to the growing needs as are the churches and development agencies and there may come a time when the number of migrants will force the governments and agencies to abandon much of the social service provision, simply because the number of migrants will overwhelm the abilities of provision. South Africa has seen a vast number of migrants, including those escaping conflict in Zimbabwe and over the last two years, we have seen the number of violent exchanges between indigenous communities and migrants increase as unemployment grows, basic food provision decreases, as does social services in water, health and education.

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