The Silent Tsunami

The silent tsunami Foodprices are causingmisery and strife around the world- Radicalsolutions are needed DICTURES of hungerusually Merelytodistributethesameamountof food aslastyear,the I showpassiveeyesand swol- wrp needs-andshouldget-an extra$7oom. len bellies.TheharvestfailsbeAnd becausethe problemsin many placesare not like causeof wat or strife;the onset thoseof a traditionalfamine,the wrp shouldbe allowedto of crisisis suddenandlocalised. broadenwhat it does.At themoment,it mostlybuysgrainand Itsburdenfallson thosealreadv dolesit out in areaswherethereis little or no food.Thatis necatthemargin. essaryin famine-ravaged places,but it damages localmarkets. Today'spicturesaredifferent.In mostplacesthereareno absoluteshortages and the taskis "Thisis a silenttsunami,"saysJosetteSheeranof the World to lower domesticpriceswithout doing too much harm to -FoodProgramme, a UnitedNationsagency.A waveof food- farmers.Thatis bestdone by distributingcash,not food-by priceinflationis movingthroughthe world,leavingriots and supporling (sometimesinventing) social-protectionproshakengovemmentsin its wake.Forthefirsttime in 30years, grammesandfood-for-workschemes for thepoor.Ttreagency foodprotestsareeruptingin manyplacesat once.Bangladesh canhelphere,thoughthemainburden-tensof billionsof dolis in turmoil (seepage5a);evenChinais worried (pageSq). lars'worth-will be borne by developing-countrygovernElsewhere, the food crisisof zoo8 will testthe assertionof mentsandlendinginstitutionsin theWest. AmartyaSen,an Indian economist,that faminesdo not hap. Suchactionsarepalliatives.But thefood crisisof zoo8has penin democracies. revealedmarketfailuresat everylink of the food chain (see Faminetraditionallymeansmassstarvation.Themeasures pages3z-3+). Any "new deal"oughtto try to addressthe longof today's crisis are misery and malnutrition. The middle termproblemsthat areholdingpoorfarmersback. classesin poor countriesaregivingup heatthcareand cutting outmeatsotheycaneatthreemealsa day.Ttremiddlingpoor, Then stop the distortions thoseon $za day,arepulling childrenfromschoolandcutting In general,governments oughtto liberalisemarkets,not interbackon vegetables so they canstill affordrice.Thoseon gr a venein themfurther.Foodisriddledwithstate interventionat day are cutting back on meat,vegetablesand one or two everyturn,from subsidiesto millersfor cheapbreadto bribes meals,so they canaffordone bowl. The desperate-those on for farmersto leaveland fallow. Theupshotof suchquotas, 5ocentsa day-facedisaster. subsidiesand controlsis to dump all the imbalancesthat in Roughlya billion peoplelive on $r a day.If, on a conserva- anotherbusinessmight be smoothedout throughsmall adtive estimate,the costof their food riseszo%(and in some justmentsontotheoneunregulated partof thefoodchain:the places,it hasrisena lot more),room peoplecould be forced intemationalmarket. backto this level,the commonmeasureof absolutepovefiy. For decades,this producedlow world pricesand disinIn somecountries,thatwould undo all thegainsin povertyre- centivesto poorfarmers.Now,theoppositeis happening.Asa ductiontheyhavemadeduringthepastdecade of growth.Be- result of yet another governmentdistortion-this time subsicausefood marketsarein turmoil, civil strifeis growing;and diesto biofuelsin the rich world-prices havegonethrough becausetradeand opennessitself couldbe undermined,the the roof. Governments havefurtherexaggerated theproblem foodcrisisof zoo8may becomea challengeto globalisation. by imposing export quotas and trade restrictions,raising pricesagain.In the past,the main argumentfor liberalising FirstfindSzoom farmingwasthat it would raisefood pricesand boostreturns Richcountriesneedto takethe food problemsasseriouslyas to farmers.Nowthat priceshavemassively overshot,theargutheytakethecreditcrunch.AheadybigwigsattheWorldBank ment standsfor the oppositereason:liberalisationwould reand the UnitedNationsarecallingfor a'hew deal"for food. duceprices,while leavingfarmerswith a decentliving. Theirclamouris justified.But gettingthe right kind of help is Thereis an occasionalexceptionto the rule that governnot so easy,partly becausefood is not a one-solution-fits-all mentsshouldkeepout of agriculture. Theycanprovidebasic problemand partly becausesomeof the help needednow technology:executingcapital-intensive irrigationprojectstoo risksmakingmattersworsein thelongrun. largefor poor individual farmersto undertake,or payingfor The starting-pointshould be that rising food pricesbear basicsciencethat helpsproducehigher-yieldingseeds.Butbe moreheavilyon someplacesthanothers.Foodexporters,and careful.Toooften-as in Europe,wheresuperstitiousdistrust countrieswherefarmersareself-sufficient,or net sellers,ben- of geneticmodificationis slowingtake-upof thetechnologyefit.Somecountries-thosein WestAfricawhich import their govemments hinderratherthanhelpsuchadvances. Sincethe staples,or Bangladesh, with its hugenumbersof landlessla- way to feedtheworld is not to bringmoreland undercultivabourers-risk ruin and civil strife. Becauseof the severity tion,but to increaseyields,scienceis crucial. there,the first stepmust be to mend the holesin the world,s Agricultureis now in limbo. Theworld of cheapfood has safetynet.Thatmeansfinancingthe WorldFoodprogramme gone.With luck and goodpolicy,therewill be a new equilibproperly.Thewrr is theworld'slargestdistributorof foodaid rium. The transitionfrom one to the other is proving more and its most importantbarrierbetweenhungry peopleand costlyandpainfulthan anyonehad expected. But the change staryation.Likea $r-a-dayfamilyin a developingcountry,its is desirable,and governmentsshouldbe seekingto easethe purchasingpowerhasbeenslashedby therisingcostof grain. pain of transition,not to stoptheprocess itself. a