Thayer Vietnam's Defence Diplomacy 2005

Vietnam’s Defence Diplomacy

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Director, UNSW Defence Studies Forum Presentation to Asia-Pacific Seminar Series UNSW@ADFA September 12, 2005

Overview 1.  2.  3.  4. 

Strategic Defence Dimension Defence Diplomacy, 1990-2004 Defence Cooperation Procurements and Defence Industry Cooperation 5.  Defence Relations with China and the United States 6.  Conclusion

1. Strategic Defence Dimension              

Neglected by academic specialists Cambodian Conflict, 1978-89 Strategic Readjustment New Foreign Policy Orientations Collapse of the Soviet Union (1991) Membership in ASEAN (July 1995) 8th Plenum (July 2003)

Government Spending on Defence

2. Defence Diplomacy   Cold War alignments   USSR, Warsaw Pact states, China, Cuba

  Non-Aligned Movement   Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos, Yugoslavia

  Defence relations with more than 60 countries (2003)   33 Defence Attaches accredited   22 Defence Attaches posted

High-Level Exchanges •  •  •  • 

Ministerial level (MND) Chief of the General Staff (CGS) Political General Department (GPD) Logistics Department (GLD) –  Deputy Minister

•  Service Chiefs –  Army, Navy, Air

A Note on Sources

Russian Federation, Belgium, Thailand North Korea, Laos, Germany

Major Categories of Exchanges Chart 1 High-Level Exchanges 1990-05

To Vietnam From Vietnam

Number of Visits

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 MND

CGS

GPD Type of Delegation

GLD

SC

Trends in High-Level Exchanges

Year

To Vietnam

From Vietnam

05 20

04 20

03 20

02 20

01 20

00 20

99 19

19

98

97 19

96 19

95 19

94 19

93 19

92 19

91 19

90

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

19

Numberof Visits

Chart 2 High Level Exchanges 1990-2005

Defence and GDP Growth

Density of High-Level Exchanges 44% ASEAN 20% Traditional Allies 17% Major Powers China, United States, Japan

8% New Europe 11 % Other Asia, Africa, Middle East and Latin America and Others

Density of Defence Exchanges • 44 - Laos

• 17 - India

• 11 - Singapore

• 6 - Italy •  Malaysia •  Ukraine

• 36 - China

• 15 - Philippines • 10 - Australia •  France •  Indonesia

• 4 - Poland •  Slovak

• 26 - Thailand

• 13 - Russia

• 9 - Japan • 8 - Cuba

• 3 - Algeria •  Belgium •  Brunei

• 22 - Cambodia

• 12 - United States

• 7 - Myanmar •  N Korea •  S Korea

• Angola, Belarus, Bulgaria, Congo R, Mozambique, Netherlands, UK

Military Diplomacy •  Accrediting of Defence Attaches •  Protocol visits •  Staff College/National Defence Institute exchanges •  Goodwill visits –  External Relations Department –  Song and Dance Ensemble •  Naval ship visits

Naval Ship Visits, 1990-2005 •  •  •  •  •  •  •  • 

7 India 6 Australia 5 France 5 United Kingdom 4 Thailand 3 South Korea 3 United States 2 Italy

•  •  •  •  •  •  • 

2 Malaysia 2 Russia 1 Canada 1 China 1 Indonesia 1 Japan 1 New Zealand

3. Defence Cooperation

Memorandum of Understanding •  Annual work plans –  exchange of visits, training, strategic dialogue, etc.

•  Address specific bilateral issues –  Border security (land and maritime) –  MIA repatriation; Cam Ranh Bay

•  Combined military activities –  Medical research –  Search and Rescue –  Coordinated naval patrols

Defence Cooperation Agreements • 

Laos – ’special solidarity and comprehensive cooperation’ • 

• 

China – border security • 

•  • 

internal security,border control, MIAs Military Region commanders

Thailand – maritime security Cambodia – border security, MIAs

Defence Cooperation Agreements •  •  •  •  • 

India – (1994 and 2000) Russia (October 1998) Australia – post-1999 United States (October 1996) Other DCAs • 

Bulgaria, Belgium, South Korea and Germany

4. Procurement and Defence Industry Cooperation                

Spare Parts Storage Repair and Maintenance Refurbishment and Upgrading Education and Training Research and Development National Defence Industry cooperation Acquisition of new capabilities

Sales and Servicing Contracts  Russian Federation (1994, 1998, 2003)  Ukraine (2002)  India (2002)  Europe - Bulgaria, Czech, Finland, Poland  ASEAN States – Singapore  Other Suppliers – Israel, North Korea

Government Defence Expenditure

Air Force Modernization •  Upgrade and modernise MiG-21and Su-22 fighter/ground attack aircraft •  Su-30 preferred air superiority fighter –  Funding a major constraint –  May opt for less expensive Su-22

•  Upgrade of Su-27s and Su-30s with beyond visual range air-to-air missiles •  Military communications satellite?

Czech L-39C Trainers

Nine purchased in 1992 and ten more in 2003

Su-22 M4 Fitter

Upgraded 1994-98 in Russia and 2005 in Ukraine

10-12 Su-27s purchased in 1994

Su-27 UBK Flanker

MiG-21 Fishbed Upgrades

4 Su-30 MKKs Fulcrums 2003

PZL M-28 Skytruck

Ten ordered from Poland in 2003

PZL Swidnik W-3 SAR

Air Defence

S-300PMU1 2003 (SA-10 Grumble)

Naval Modernisation •  Protect offshore oil and gas claims •  Anti-shipping capability –  Match extended naval reach in South China Sea by other claimant countries

•  Anti-submarine warfare –  Counter threat of Chinese submarines

•  Mines counter-measures capability

Deterrence capability in South China Sea

Tarantul Class (Type 1241)

4 acquired from Russia in 1996-98

Tarantul 3 Corvette

Two Molnya 1241.8 FAC (M) delivered in 2005, eight to be assembled in Vietnam

Anti-shipping Capability Styx Missile

Sunburn missile

BPS 500 Fast Attack Craft (M)

2 acquired 1998. BPS 500 now under production in Vietnam

KBO 2000 Corvette

Project 2100 Recently Cancelled

Yugo-Class Midget Submarine

Land Force Modernisation •  Main Battle Tanks –  Finland 70 (T-54 and T-55) –  Poland (150 T-72)

•  Multiple Rocket Launch System –  Czech

•  Upgrade U.S. era M113 APCs –  Singapore?

T-54/55 Main Battle Tank

850 T-54-55 and 350 Chinese Type-59 Main Battle Tanks

Grad Multiple Rocket Launcher

Short Range Ballistic Missiles?

Scud C ballistic missile

Reportedly sold by North Korea

South-East Asia: Developing Military Capability to 2015 Legend: Poor Serious shortcomings in ability to meet roles and tasks. Fair Good Very Good 2003 2015

Can meet some roles and tasks but has some shortcomings. Can meet most roles and tasks at a basic level. Can meet all roles and tasks comprehensively. Changing colour shows development from 2003 through to 2015.

Defend Territory Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Burma Brunei Cambodia Laos

Sea Control

Strategic Strike

Seize Territory

Constabulary

5. Defence Relations with China and the United States •  China –  Normalisation of diplomatic relations (1991) –  Long-term Cooperative Framework (1999) –  “looking to the future, boosting good neighborly friendship and exploring all-around collaboration” –  U.S. –  Recovery of Missing-in-Action (MIA) remains –  Normalisation of diplomatic relations (1995) –  Visit by Prime Minister to U.S. (2005)

Defence Relations with China

•  First round of consultations on defensive security (Beijing, April 2005) •  Chinese Commission for Science, Technology and National Defence Industry delegation visits Hanoi (July) •  General Phung Quang Thanh, CGS, visits Beijing (July)

Ministerial Exchange Visits

Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen, Hanoi, March 2000 and Defence Minister Pham Van Tra, Washington, November 2003

U.S. Naval Port Visits USS Vandegrift, Saigon, November 2003

USS Curtis Wilbur, Da Nang, July 2004 USS Gary, Saigon, March 2005

Defence Relations with the U.S. •  15th Asia-Pacific Military Medicine Conference held in Hanoi co-sponsored by Vietnam and the U.S. (May 2005) •  Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Peter Rodman, visits Hanoi (June) •  Prime Minister Phan Van Khai visits Washington, D.C. and meets with President George Bush ( June 21)

6. Conclusion •  •  •  • 

Bringing the Military Back In Military as important domestic political actor Potential regional role Priority on naval and air modernisation –  South China Sea contingencies

•  Rise of China –  balancing –  bandwagoning –  hierarchy –  norm building and regional identity

Vietnam’s Defence Diplomacy

Discussion Questions and Answers

Military Capability

•  Maritime Capabilities –  Maritime Patrol - 48 assorted vessels –  Anti-Surface Warfare - 13 ships with SSMs –  Maritime Land Strike - no real capability –  Anti-Submarine Warfare - no real capability –  Maritime Air Defence - no ability to coordinate –  Amphibious Lodgment/Marine Forces –  Mine Warfare - 10 assorted vessels

Military Capability •  Land Capabilities –  Infantry Forces - 58 Inf Divisions –  Combined Arms Ground Forces •  3 Mech Inf and 10 Armoured Div, 10 Arty Bde, –  Special Forces –  Land Force C3I (Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence) –  Reserves

Military Capability

•  Air Capabilities –  Air Defence - MiG-21, SA-2/3 SAMs •  AA-2/8/10 air to air missiles –  Long Range Strike - Su-27, Su-30 –  Close Air Support - Su-22M series –  Transport - An-2, An-26, Yak-40

Military Capability •  Other Capabilities –  Chemical and Biological •  suspected Saren and mustard gas (1991) •  Scud B/C Short Range Ballistic Missiles

–  Information or Knowledge Warfare •  SIGINT •  ELINT

–  Radiological and Nuclear (none)