Thayer Vietnam Democracy Activists Arrested

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Background Briefing: Nguyen Tien Trung and Tran Anh Kim Carlyle A. Thayer July 9, 2009

[client name deleted] QUESTION: I was still working no my story when the arrests of Nguyen Tien Trung and Tran Anh Kim happened. Would have have any comment on these additional arrests ? How you analyze the logic behind all the arrests that happened over the past weeks ? ANSWER: It is impossible to know the exact reasons for the timing of the current round of arrests of pro-democracy activists. It could be that the Ministry of Public Security finally completed its investigation and persuaded the leadership to act. It is also possible to speculate that internal party politics played a role. The recent tenth plenum marked the start of the ‘political season’ between now and the next party congress. It is the half way point and the party will be busy setting up policy sub-committees and determining the new leadership line up. It is early days. but party conservatives may feel that the multiple pressures of renewed pro-democracy activism coupled with the bauxite issue and Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea call for a united home front. This has naturally led to repression of those who are vocal critics of the party-government policy. The arrests of Nguyen Tien Trung and Tran Anh Kim are a sign that the security authorities are rounding up a revived pro-democracy movement after the repression against Bloc 8406. In the cases of Le Cong Dinh and Nguyen Tien Trung pro-democracy activism has spilled over into criticism of China and the government’s handling of relations with Beijing. The government has censored the newspaper Dan Tri for its support of the patriotic students who demonstrated in late 2007. The newspaper Du Lich has also been suppressed for its criticism of China. And finally, the joint website between the Chinese and Vietnamese trade ministries has been temporarily shut down following posting of messages by China critical of Vietnam on the South China Sea.