Thayer Vietnam Crackdown On Dissent

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Background Briefing: Crackdown on Dissent Carlyle A. Thayer July 12, 2009

[client name withheld] Since your emailed reply about Le Cong Dinh sent on July 2 … there have been the further arrests of Tran Anh Kim and Nguyen Tien Trung. I'd just like to follow up by clarifying with you: Q1) To what extent could all these arrests be seen as part of an ongoing crackdown since 2007 or even earlier? ANSWER: The current spate of arrests is definitely a continuation of repression of prodemocracy activists who were part of emerging pro-democracy network exemplified by Bloc 8406 but also involving a disparate groups of other activists. Specifically, the arrests of Le Cong Dinh and Tran Anh Kim are connected to Bloc 8406, while Nguyen Tien Trung is part of a crackdown on the larger network of pro-democracy activists. Q2) You mentioned that "the Dinh case is aimed at intimidating and silencing domestic critics who might have become emboldened to become more politically active." So, to what extent is there both domestically and externally a GROWING movement of dissent, criticism against Party rule? ANSWER: The current group of activists who have been arrested do not represent a growing movement of dissent so much as a revival of dissent after the repression of 2007. Le Cong Dinh had been given quite a bit of leeway to express and propagate his views, and his short lived success inspired others. This current crackdown demonstrates the importance of both the internet and overseas connections in sustaining the pro-democracy network and the Vietnamese regime’s extreme sensitivity to such dissent. 3) You also said "The Le Cong Dinh case will most definitely cast a chill over party members who would like to see greater political liberalization." To what extent are there differences within the Party leadership over how to respond to domestic/external critics of the Party ? ANSWER: One can find inside the Vietnam Communist Party today the entire spectrum of political views aired by non-party political dissidents. But party members who hold progressive views keep themselves within ‘acceptable bounds’ when expressing their viewpoints. Most party members whom I have spoken to are not particularly sympathetic towards prodemocracy activists. The dissidents are seen as individualists who make common cause with overseas Vietnamese. Party members who are progressive and reform-minded see political liberalization as party-led and they dismiss the pretensions of pro-democracy activists to speak on behalf of the people. The debate within the party, insofar as I can discern, is over how to be more sophisticated in treating dissidents. In other words, how to convey in propaganda and information activities that the regime is acting legitimately within the law.