Thayer Vietnam Asean Chair 2010

Thayer Consultancy ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam as ASEAN Chair Carlyle A. Thayer October 30, 2009

[client name deleted] Question. Among the challenges that you told me in the previous email (to ensure that consensus prevails and that ASEAN moves forward, to oversee the expanding relationship with China and the US, to play a major role in investment and service negotiations with India..), what would be the most difficult or significant task for Vietnam and why? Answer: The most challenging task for Vietnam as Chair of ASEAN will be to bridge the differences that have emerged among members about how to implement the ASEAN Charter to make the decisions of the Association more binding and effective especially in sensitive areas such as human rights and religious freedom. ASEAN’s principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of another country has often been used as a shield to avoid taking action. Up to now ASEAN has followed a consensual style of decision-making that means one member can block progress on which other members have agreed. Now, under the Charter, ASEAN has the possibility of making decisions by majority. The problem is how to make binding agreements and get all members to implement what has been agreed. The failure to maintain a working consensus in ASEAN would harm the Association’s development. For example, several influential Indonesians have become increasingly critical about ASEAN inaction. They have proposed that regional leadership be placed in the hands of the six Asian countries who are members of the Group of 20.

Thayer Consultancy ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam’s Role as ASEAN Chair in 2010 Carlyle A. Thayer October 22,, 2009

[client name withheld] 1Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung will officially take over the ASEAN presidency in 2010 from Thailand (in Hua Hin) this week. In your view, what would be the main challenges and opportunities (both political and economic benefits) brought about to Vietnam by this mission? How will this position affect Vietnam’s voice in international forums as well as in bilateral relations with big partners including the US and China? ANSWER: Vietnam will assume the ASEAN Chair at a very important turning point in the Association’s development. The ASEAN Charter has come into effect and some of its provisions need elaboration. Vietnam has stated that ASEAN is its top foreign policy priority. As ASEAN Chair Vietnam will have to use all of its diplomatic skills to ensure that consensus prevails and that ASEAN moves forward. The question of Myanmar’s plans to hold elections in 2010 is a case in point. Several original members of ASEAN, as well as democratic states in the international community, would like to see Aung San Suu Kyi freed from house arrest, a process of national reconciliation, and free and fair elections. If there is no real progress on the Myanmar issue it will continue to affect ASEAN’s cohesion and its relations with democratic great powers. As from next year, Vietnam as ASEAN Chair will be the focal point for diplomacy by the great powers. Vietnam will have to oversee the expanding relationship with China while dealing with the return of the United States to multilateral diplomacy. As Vietnam has demonstrated by its presidency of the United Nations Security Council it has the diplomatic skills to maneuver between the great powers for the benefit of ASEAN. There are a number of proposals on the table to upgrade regional security architecture. Australia and the new government in Japan have both tabled proposals for an Asia Pacific community and East Asia Community respectively. Vietnam will have to use all its diplomatic skills to ensure that ASEAN is not marginalized if any of these proposals comes to fruition. On the economic front, Vietnam can play a positive role by signing the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in goods once India recognizes Vietnam as a market economy. Then Vietnam should play a major role in negotiating with India a mutually acceptable opening of up markets in investments and services with a FTA. 2- Do you have any recommendations for the government of Vietnam to make its upcoming presidency a success, particularly in the context that ASEAN bloc is striving for measures to reach its target of building an ASEAN community by 2015? ANSWER: Vietnam was one of the early countries in ASEAN to make proposals for the socioeconomic pillar of the ASEAN Community to be realized by 2020. Vietnam can continue to play a leadership role in developing this pillar by making ASEAN a more people-orientated organization. Vietnam will be handed the “hot potato” of implementing the terms of reference for the ASEAN Inter-governmental Commission on Human Rights. Some members want the new body to promote the protection of human rights, others see this as interference in their internal affairs. Vietnam will have to find an acceptable middle ground.

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ASEAN members are also divided about the role and participation of civil society organizations (CSO). Vietnam surprised many observers at the 14th ASEAN Summit held in March this year when President Nguyen Minh Triet made an intervention during a heated meeting between ASEAN and CSO representatives. President Triet supported the creation of a mechanism to support dialogue. Thailand, as Chair, was the only other ASEAN member to express support. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has also supported the idea of a dialogue between ASEAN and CSO representatives under an appropriate guideline. Now Vietnam as the next ASEAN Chair will have to make good on this suggestion by developing a plan of action. 3- What do you think of the contributions that Vietnam has made to ASEAN since it joined this association in 1995 and the current role that Vietnam play in the association? In your opinion, is it possible that Vietnam will be able to play a leading role in ASEAN in the future? If yes, in which fields? ANSWER: Vietnam has made several important contributions to ASEAN since in joined in 1995. When Vietnam first assumed the ASEAN Chair in 2001 it promoted the Hanoi Declaration on narrowing the development gap between old and new members. This resulted in what is known as the Initiative for ASEAN Integration in which priority was given to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam to develop infrastructure and human resources, and information and communications technology. Vietnam has played a very useful role in ensuring that the South China Sea remains a region of “peace, cooperation and development.” Vietnam led ASEAN members in negotiating the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea with China. Vietnam has contributed to developing ASEAN’s relations with its dialogue partners. First, Vietnam was the ASEAN interlocutor for relations with Russia (1997-00). It then became the ASEAN Coordinator for relations with the United State (2000-03) and Australia (at present). Vietnam was not only instrumental in arranging the ASEAN-Australia and New Zealand Summit in Vientiane in late 2004 but in coaxing a reluctant Australian government to sign the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in mid-2005. Finally, Vietnam has provided ideas and support for the development of the socio-cultural pillar for the establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2020. The ASEAN Community has three pillars, the others being political-security and economic. Vietnam’s economic growth and its political stability have marked it as the country to watch in the coming years. Many world leaders see Vietnam emerging as an important leader in regional affairs, not only because of its domestic accomplishments, but because of its proven record in international diplomacy. Vietnam can positively contribute to regional and international “peace, cooperation and development” by advancing the interests of developing countries especially on issues such as mitigating the effects of climate change, disaster management, food and energy security, and education and human resource development. Vietnam will have its role cut out for it because under the new ASEAN Charter it must host two summits next year. The first has already been scheduled for April in Ho Chi Minh City. The second ASEAN summit will be an enlarged event including an ASEAN Summit with its dialogue partners, and the East Asian Summit in October.