T3 B15 Counter Terrorism Policy Fdr- 6-12-03 Team 3 Presentation- Next Steps 992
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Next Steps for Team Three
assified -- Commission Sensitive
Organization Ultimate objectives and summer plans Individual components of overall objectives, including timelines Possible hiccups
2
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
)
Our Ultimate Vision The final monograph will have "chapters" addressing: The evolution of U.S. counterterrorism strategy Counter-terrorism instruments and key allies Policies toward safe havens and permissive environments where al-Qa'ida flourished How counterterrorism policy changed in the immediate aftermath of September 1 1 The posture of the United States today Each of these key questions raises a host of smaller questions, perhaps deserving of a small monograph We will also contribute to overalj Commission recommendations regarding policy Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Goals for this summer
5y
Request, obtain, and review key documents Conduct initial interviews and initiate requests for senior interviews Begin identifying recommendations Prepare interim products and/or drafts of selected elements of broader plans Interim product examples: reviews of overall U.S. counterterrorism policy from 1993-1998 and same for 1 970-1993 (drafted by outside consultants) ^r> Draft product example: assessment of diplomacy as / a counterterrorism instrument Purpose: identify procedures, problems, style, and other issues as early as possible All products will be revised as more information Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Overall Research Plan September Drafts or interim products to PZ and CK for initial review
Mid-level interview requests submitted
January
May
March
Plan for evaluating posture today
Additional drafts or interim products to PZ and CK
Initial drafts to PZ and CK
Submit list of recommendations
Final draft to PZ and CK
Interviews "Informational interviews" completed
Senior interview requests submitted
Mid-level interviews completed
Senior interviews completed
Final follow-up requests submitted
Docs All major requests jubmitted
5
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
)
Strategy: Key Issues How did U.S. counterterrorism policy evolve, particularly after the 1998 Embassy bombings? Were there gaps in U.S. strategy? What factors hindered policy makers? Did policy makers try to expand their options? How did policy change in the immediate aftermath of September 11 ?
6 Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
)
Research Plan: Strategy June
c
July
August
Timeline of key meetings, including classified meetings
September
I
Contribute to overall recommendations list
Timeline from unclassified readings -*
Prepare interview invitations for key mid-level officials
Conduct "informational" interviews
Interviews
j
Draft and edit report on early stages of U.S. CT policy
Prepare invitations for key senior officials Submit doc requests to key policy agencies
Complete unclass readings
Docs Review JIS files and CIA timeline
Review initial docs from NSC
J
Submit follow-up requests
J
Review initial docs received from other key agencies
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Safe Havens and Permissive Environments: Key Issues How did the United States address al-Qa'ida safe havens in Sudan and Afghanistan? Review al-Qa'ida's presence in combination with other teams U.S. goals in addition to counterterrorism in these countries Points of leverage, if any Use of different counterterrorism instruments- responses and effectiveness Did the United States address "permissive environments"? Which countries were vital for al-Qa'ida (coordinate with Team One)? Did the United States confront these governments? How? How did these countries respond? Were there gaps in U.S. strategy and, if so, how were they addressed? How did policy toward safe havens and permissive environments change in the immediate aftermath of September 11 ? Recommendations for current policy 8 Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Research Plan: Safe Havens June
August
July
September Contribute to overall recommendations list 7. Draft on aspect of the safe haven question (e.g. one country other than Afghanistan)
Prepare interview invitations for key mid-level officials
Conduct "informational" interviews
Interviews Submit doc requests to key agencies
c
Prepare invitations for key senior officials
Review initial docs received from key agencies
Docs Review JIS files .and CIA timeline
Complete unclass readings Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Submit follow-up 19 requests __' v
Counterterrorism Instruments: Key Issues Review available instruments Initial list: diplomacy; criminal law; covert action; renditions; financial restrictions; disruptions; military operations; public diplomacy; and sanctions Why were certain instruments used? Why were others considered but not selected? Were others not considered at all? If so, why? What were the limits of each instrument? What was the impact of each instrument? Support from key countries (especially Saudi Arabia and Pakistan): Types of support sought and limits on requests Type of support provided "Tradeoffs" of support Key allies and important countries not (or partially) on board How did the use of instruments change after September 11? Identify lessons learned and recommendations
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
10
Research Plan: Instruments June
September
August
July
Contribute to overall recommendations list
Prepare interview invitations for key mid-level officials
j
Draft on one instrument (e.g. diplomacy) and/or one key country
Interviews Prepare invitations for key senior officials
Conduct "informational" interviews Review JIS files and CIA timeline
Docs Submit doc requests to kev policy agencies
J
Submit follow-up requests Review initial docs received from key agencies
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
11
*',
Possible Hiccups • Clearances for keystaff • Delays in access to documents; may prevent early drafting • Delays in access to interviewees, particularly at the senior level • Computers, phones, etc.
12 Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Next Steps for Team Three
assified -- Commission Sensitive
Organization Ultimate objectives and summer plans Individual components of overall objectives, including timelines Possible hiccups
2
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
)
Our Ultimate Vision The final monograph will have "chapters" addressing: The evolution of U.S. counterterrorism strategy Counter-terrorism instruments and key allies Policies toward safe havens and permissive environments where al-Qa'ida flourished How counterterrorism policy changed in the immediate aftermath of September 1 1 The posture of the United States today Each of these key questions raises a host of smaller questions, perhaps deserving of a small monograph We will also contribute to overalj Commission recommendations regarding policy Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Goals for this summer
5y
Request, obtain, and review key documents Conduct initial interviews and initiate requests for senior interviews Begin identifying recommendations Prepare interim products and/or drafts of selected elements of broader plans Interim product examples: reviews of overall U.S. counterterrorism policy from 1993-1998 and same for 1 970-1993 (drafted by outside consultants) ^r> Draft product example: assessment of diplomacy as / a counterterrorism instrument Purpose: identify procedures, problems, style, and other issues as early as possible All products will be revised as more information Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Overall Research Plan September Drafts or interim products to PZ and CK for initial review
Mid-level interview requests submitted
January
May
March
Plan for evaluating posture today
Additional drafts or interim products to PZ and CK
Initial drafts to PZ and CK
Submit list of recommendations
Final draft to PZ and CK
Interviews "Informational interviews" completed
Senior interview requests submitted
Mid-level interviews completed
Senior interviews completed
Final follow-up requests submitted
Docs All major requests jubmitted
5
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
)
Strategy: Key Issues How did U.S. counterterrorism policy evolve, particularly after the 1998 Embassy bombings? Were there gaps in U.S. strategy? What factors hindered policy makers? Did policy makers try to expand their options? How did policy change in the immediate aftermath of September 11 ?
6 Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
)
Research Plan: Strategy June
c
July
August
Timeline of key meetings, including classified meetings
September
I
Contribute to overall recommendations list
Timeline from unclassified readings -*
Prepare interview invitations for key mid-level officials
Conduct "informational" interviews
Interviews
j
Draft and edit report on early stages of U.S. CT policy
Prepare invitations for key senior officials Submit doc requests to key policy agencies
Complete unclass readings
Docs Review JIS files and CIA timeline
Review initial docs from NSC
J
Submit follow-up requests
J
Review initial docs received from other key agencies
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Safe Havens and Permissive Environments: Key Issues How did the United States address al-Qa'ida safe havens in Sudan and Afghanistan? Review al-Qa'ida's presence in combination with other teams U.S. goals in addition to counterterrorism in these countries Points of leverage, if any Use of different counterterrorism instruments- responses and effectiveness Did the United States address "permissive environments"? Which countries were vital for al-Qa'ida (coordinate with Team One)? Did the United States confront these governments? How? How did these countries respond? Were there gaps in U.S. strategy and, if so, how were they addressed? How did policy toward safe havens and permissive environments change in the immediate aftermath of September 11 ? Recommendations for current policy 8 Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Research Plan: Safe Havens June
August
July
September Contribute to overall recommendations list 7. Draft on aspect of the safe haven question (e.g. one country other than Afghanistan)
Prepare interview invitations for key mid-level officials
Conduct "informational" interviews
Interviews Submit doc requests to key agencies
c
Prepare invitations for key senior officials
Review initial docs received from key agencies
Docs Review JIS files .and CIA timeline
Complete unclass readings Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Submit follow-up 19 requests __' v
Counterterrorism Instruments: Key Issues Review available instruments Initial list: diplomacy; criminal law; covert action; renditions; financial restrictions; disruptions; military operations; public diplomacy; and sanctions Why were certain instruments used? Why were others considered but not selected? Were others not considered at all? If so, why? What were the limits of each instrument? What was the impact of each instrument? Support from key countries (especially Saudi Arabia and Pakistan): Types of support sought and limits on requests Type of support provided "Tradeoffs" of support Key allies and important countries not (or partially) on board How did the use of instruments change after September 11? Identify lessons learned and recommendations
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
10
Research Plan: Instruments June
September
August
July
Contribute to overall recommendations list
Prepare interview invitations for key mid-level officials
j
Draft on one instrument (e.g. diplomacy) and/or one key country
Interviews Prepare invitations for key senior officials
Conduct "informational" interviews Review JIS files and CIA timeline
Docs Submit doc requests to kev policy agencies
J
Submit follow-up requests Review initial docs received from key agencies
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
11
*',
Possible Hiccups • Clearances for keystaff • Delays in access to documents; may prevent early drafting • Delays in access to interviewees, particularly at the senior level • Computers, phones, etc.
12 Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
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