T3 B15 Counter Terrorism Policy Fdr- 4-10-03 Email Re Working Paper Clipped W Note 984
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From : "Warren Bass" i_
Subject: Re: working paper Date; Trm, 10 Apr 2003 05:24:19 -0400 fteply] |BepiyAI»1
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hey, scott—many thanks for this, this gives us a terrific, thoughtful head start on the process—congrats. i'm just sprinting to catch my connection from heathrow on to israel, but let me offer a few very, very quick thoughts: 1. important, i suspect, to be careful not to use the term "counterterrorism" as a synonym for "steps against al-qaeda." al-qaeda is pretty different from many other terrorist groups—ETA, shining path, LTTE, etc.—who aren't necessarily out to tangle with us. academic pedantry, i know, but there you have it.
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2. to my mind, some of the key ongoing issues relate to how we dealt with alqaeda's roots in saudi arabia, egypt, and afghanistan. so i'd be curious to know how high a priority UBL and co. were when we were talking to our friends in riyadh and cairo (plus Islamabad, as you've noted)—and how friendly, or not, our tone was... 3. i'm curious about missed opportunities to catch key fish—UBL in sudan, KSM in qatar, etc. this may be team one's area, not ours, but i think it's still something that the public will want to hear about. 4. it'd be interesting to note the evolution of alarm about al-qaeda as a MASSCASUALTY terrorist group—an exception to Jenkins' old saw about terrorists wanting a lot of people watching rather than a lot of people dead, how did the OSG track the rise of religious terrorism in the 1990s? per hoffman, there were fewer terror attacks in the 1990s, but they were more lethal. 5. i'm wary of the "root causes" language—perhaps we can just ask what al-qaeda's key grievances were (u.s. troops in saudi arabia, u.s, support for the house of saud and mubarak, general portrait of u.s. as being on a crusade against islam, u.s. policy on iraq and israel, etc.) and whether the policy was shrewd enough in taking those into account, to my mind, the "root causes" stuff—which i tend to associate with poverty, resentment, and dysfunctional arab political systems—has more to do with where al-qaeda finds recruits rather than the deeply held grudges of its fanatical senior leadership. 6. pace abe sofaer, i think the preemption question has to be embedded in the history of the times, i just don't think it would've been possible to invade afghanistan in the 1990s, even after the 1998 bombings, perhaps, knowing what we do now, we should've, but it's important to see the policymakers' choices in their historical context, also, there's a key difference between prevention (calculated, deliberately chosen, longer-range anticipatory self-defense) and preemption (sort of involuntary throwing up of one's hand to ward off a blow that one knows is coining) . 7. curious to see how policymakers handled various junctures earlier on:
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* any'fears that backing the afghan mujahedeen might cause blowback? or any concerns about walking away from postsoviet afghanistan? * attacks in 1993,
1995 manila plot, 1998 embassy bombings, and the cole
anyway, much of that is incorporated in your list already, but thought i'd chuck a few scribbles into the mix before i'm off email, i'll be able to log on very occasionally from Israel, i hope, but otherwise, look forward to charging ahead when i'm back. ack, late for a plane... cheers, warren 10. Protect your PC - Click here for McAfee.com VlrusScan Online, here are some ideas for the working paper, -s Tired of spam? Get advanced junk mail protection with MSN 8.
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From : "Warren Bass" i_
Subject: Re: working paper Date; Trm, 10 Apr 2003 05:24:19 -0400 fteply] |BepiyAI»1
Search the
Printer Friendly Version
hey, scott—many thanks for this, this gives us a terrific, thoughtful head start on the process—congrats. i'm just sprinting to catch my connection from heathrow on to israel, but let me offer a few very, very quick thoughts: 1. important, i suspect, to be careful not to use the term "counterterrorism" as a synonym for "steps against al-qaeda." al-qaeda is pretty different from many other terrorist groups—ETA, shining path, LTTE, etc.—who aren't necessarily out to tangle with us. academic pedantry, i know, but there you have it.
Top 101
Mobile D Special o Have an Retatiepl Second r If sail at Buy at W Buy your MSN Mot Somethir
2. to my mind, some of the key ongoing issues relate to how we dealt with alqaeda's roots in saudi arabia, egypt, and afghanistan. so i'd be curious to know how high a priority UBL and co. were when we were talking to our friends in riyadh and cairo (plus Islamabad, as you've noted)—and how friendly, or not, our tone was... 3. i'm curious about missed opportunities to catch key fish—UBL in sudan, KSM in qatar, etc. this may be team one's area, not ours, but i think it's still something that the public will want to hear about. 4. it'd be interesting to note the evolution of alarm about al-qaeda as a MASSCASUALTY terrorist group—an exception to Jenkins' old saw about terrorists wanting a lot of people watching rather than a lot of people dead, how did the OSG track the rise of religious terrorism in the 1990s? per hoffman, there were fewer terror attacks in the 1990s, but they were more lethal. 5. i'm wary of the "root causes" language—perhaps we can just ask what al-qaeda's key grievances were (u.s. troops in saudi arabia, u.s, support for the house of saud and mubarak, general portrait of u.s. as being on a crusade against islam, u.s. policy on iraq and israel, etc.) and whether the policy was shrewd enough in taking those into account, to my mind, the "root causes" stuff—which i tend to associate with poverty, resentment, and dysfunctional arab political systems—has more to do with where al-qaeda finds recruits rather than the deeply held grudges of its fanatical senior leadership. 6. pace abe sofaer, i think the preemption question has to be embedded in the history of the times, i just don't think it would've been possible to invade afghanistan in the 1990s, even after the 1998 bombings, perhaps, knowing what we do now, we should've, but it's important to see the policymakers' choices in their historical context, also, there's a key difference between prevention (calculated, deliberately chosen, longer-range anticipatory self-defense) and preemption (sort of involuntary throwing up of one's hand to ward off a blow that one knows is coining) . 7. curious to see how policymakers handled various junctures earlier on:
http://by2fd.bay2.hotmail.msn,com/cgi-bin/getmsg?curmbox=FOOOOOOOO 1 &a=a26dd5c8eOfa... 4/10/03
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Page 2 of 2
* any'fears that backing the afghan mujahedeen might cause blowback? or any concerns about walking away from postsoviet afghanistan? * attacks in 1993,
1995 manila plot, 1998 embassy bombings, and the cole
anyway, much of that is incorporated in your list already, but thought i'd chuck a few scribbles into the mix before i'm off email, i'll be able to log on very occasionally from Israel, i hope, but otherwise, look forward to charging ahead when i'm back. ack, late for a plane... cheers, warren 10. Protect your PC - Click here for McAfee.com VlrusScan Online, here are some ideas for the working paper, -s Tired of spam? Get advanced junk mail protection with MSN 8.
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