S&p Mekko Chart From 1871 Real & Nominal Returns
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Column Labels 1877-92
1893-02
Month(s)
%Change
Bear Recovery Bull
1903-06
Month(s)
%Change
1907-11
Month(s)
%Change
1914-16
Month(s)
%Change
1920-29
Month(s)
%Change
1932-37
Month(s)
%Change
1942-46
Month(s)
%Change
1948-61
Month(s)
%Change
1962-68
Month(s)
%Change
1970-73
Month(s)
%Change
1974-87
Month(s)
%Change
1987-00
Month(s)
%Change
2000 ->
Month(s)
%Change
Month(s)
%Change
12
-28.53%
14
-22.93%
14
-26.18%
22
-34.75%
42
-20.44%
49
-47.10%
33
-76.80%
62
-48.31%
22
-35.38%
6
-21.76%
18
-31.67%
23
-50.06%
4
-26.68%
103
-51.76%
9
40.53%
24
30.29%
15
38.05%
17
55.75%
10
28.68%
44
97.10%
53
340.07%
36
94.40%
32
59.53%
11
28.80%
29
50.46%
121
103.01%
20
40.95%
5
49.40%
170
338.47%
85
112.81%
12
21.34%
26
21.17%
13
4.75%
61
317.26%
3
4.66%
12
31.60%
134
386.01%
67
55.00%
2
2.84%
31
93.96%
132
301.46%
0
0.00%
300% 200%
Assumes March 9 was the bottom of this cycle!
Bull
100%
Recovery
103
4
23
18
6
22
62
33
49
42
22
14
14
12
Bear
1877‐92
1893‐02
1903‐ 06
1907‐11
1914‐16
1920‐29
1932‐37
Period (Months)
1942‐46
1948‐61
1962‐68
1970‐73
1974‐87
1987‐00
5 0
132
20
31
121
29 2
67
11
134
32
12
36
3
53
61
44
10 13
26
17
15 12
85
24
9
0% ‐100%
% Change S&P Comp
400%
5000%
Market Cycles ‐ Real Returns Monthly Data (after Inflation & Div) ‐ Prices Normalized to Year 2000‐$
170
Row Labels
2000 ‐>
Column Labels 1872 1882 1872-1882 Row Labels
1885 1902 1885-1902
Month(s)
%Change
Month(s)
1903 1906 1903-1906 %Change
Month(s)
1907 1909 1907-1909 %Change
1921 1929 1921-1929
Month(s)
%Change
1932 1956 1932-1956
Month(s)
%Change
Month(s)
1957 tto 61 %Change
1962 66 1962-66
Month(s)
%Change
1966 68 1966-68
Month(s)
%Change
1970 74 1970-74
Month(s)
%Change
1974 -1982 1982
Month(s)
%Change
1982 87 1982-87
Month(s)
%Change
1987 1990 1987-1990
Month(s)
%Change
Month(s)
1990 2000 1990-2000 %Change
Month(s)
2002 07 2002-07 %Change
2007 -
Month(s)
%Change
Month(s)
%Change
Bear
69.0
-38.61%
33
-31.09%
14.0
-29.04%
14.0
-37.69%
140.1
-37.38%
33.0
-84.76%
14.7
-21.63%
6.4
-27.97%
7.9
-22.18%
17.9
-36.06%
20.7
-48.20%
20.4
-27.11%
3.3
-33.54%
2.9
-19.92%
27.7
-42.29%
17.0
-56.70%
Recovery
31.0
62.89%
164
46.74%
16.0
44.11%
21.0
62.88%
41.1
64.03%
267.2
559.33%
11.1
27.60%
14.3
38.84%
6.9
28.50%
21.4
56.40%
69.5
93.06%
2.8
37.20%
19.8
50.46%
4.6
24.87%
58.4
73.27%
4.7
45.89%
Bull
24.0
20.46%
43
40.25%
18.0
10.83%
4.0
1.18%
56.0
195.84%
23.0
58.16%
38.6
46.04%
29.2
29.49%
18.9
15.21%
10.2
10.95%
4.4
16.87%
57.7
139.66%
11.6
9.56%
109.0
314.00%
4.4
2.29%
0.0
0.00%
200% %
B ll Bull
17.0
27.7
2.9
3.3
20.4
20.7
17.9
7.9
6.4
33.0
14.7
Bear
140.1
14.0
14.0
33.0
69.0
Recovery
1872‐1882
1885‐1902
1903‐ 1906
1907‐ 1909
1932‐1956
1921‐1929
Period (Months) Period (Months)
1957 to 61
1962‐ 66
1966‐68
1970‐ 74
1974 ‐1982
1982‐87
2002‐07 1987‐ 1990
1990‐2000
4.7 0.0
4.4
58.4
109.0
4.6
19.8 11.6
57.7
2.8
4.4
69.5
21.4 10.2
6.9 18.9
29.2
14.3
38.6
11.1
23.0
267.2
56.0
41.1
21.0 4.0
16.0 18.0
43.0
164.0
24.0
31.0
0% % ‐200%
% Change S& &P Comp
400%
600%
Market Cycles ‐ Nominal Monthly Data
2007 ‐
1893-02
Month(s)
%Change
Bear Recovery Bull
1903-06
Month(s)
%Change
1907-11
Month(s)
%Change
1914-16
Month(s)
%Change
1920-29
Month(s)
%Change
1932-37
Month(s)
%Change
1942-46
Month(s)
%Change
1948-61
Month(s)
%Change
1962-68
Month(s)
%Change
1970-73
Month(s)
%Change
1974-87
Month(s)
%Change
1987-00
Month(s)
%Change
2000 ->
Month(s)
%Change
Month(s)
%Change
12
-28.53%
14
-22.93%
14
-26.18%
22
-34.75%
42
-20.44%
49
-47.10%
33
-76.80%
62
-48.31%
22
-35.38%
6
-21.76%
18
-31.67%
23
-50.06%
4
-26.68%
103
-51.76%
9
40.53%
24
30.29%
15
38.05%
17
55.75%
10
28.68%
44
97.10%
53
340.07%
36
94.40%
32
59.53%
11
28.80%
29
50.46%
121
103.01%
20
40.95%
5
49.40%
170
338.47%
85
112.81%
12
21.34%
26
21.17%
13
4.75%
61
317.26%
3
4.66%
12
31.60%
134
386.01%
67
55.00%
2
2.84%
31
93.96%
132
301.46%
0
0.00%
300% 200%
Assumes March 9 was the bottom of this cycle!
Bull
100%
Recovery
103
4
23
18
6
22
62
33
49
42
22
14
14
12
Bear
1877‐92
1893‐02
1903‐ 06
1907‐11
1914‐16
1920‐29
1932‐37
Period (Months)
1942‐46
1948‐61
1962‐68
1970‐73
1974‐87
1987‐00
5 0
132
20
31
121
29 2
67
11
134
32
12
36
3
53
61
44
10 13
26
17
15 12
85
24
9
0% ‐100%
% Change S&P Comp
400%
5000%
Market Cycles ‐ Real Returns Monthly Data (after Inflation & Div) ‐ Prices Normalized to Year 2000‐$
170
Row Labels
2000 ‐>
Column Labels 1872 1882 1872-1882 Row Labels
1885 1902 1885-1902
Month(s)
%Change
Month(s)
1903 1906 1903-1906 %Change
Month(s)
1907 1909 1907-1909 %Change
1921 1929 1921-1929
Month(s)
%Change
1932 1956 1932-1956
Month(s)
%Change
Month(s)
1957 tto 61 %Change
1962 66 1962-66
Month(s)
%Change
1966 68 1966-68
Month(s)
%Change
1970 74 1970-74
Month(s)
%Change
1974 -1982 1982
Month(s)
%Change
1982 87 1982-87
Month(s)
%Change
1987 1990 1987-1990
Month(s)
%Change
Month(s)
1990 2000 1990-2000 %Change
Month(s)
2002 07 2002-07 %Change
2007 -
Month(s)
%Change
Month(s)
%Change
Bear
69.0
-38.61%
33
-31.09%
14.0
-29.04%
14.0
-37.69%
140.1
-37.38%
33.0
-84.76%
14.7
-21.63%
6.4
-27.97%
7.9
-22.18%
17.9
-36.06%
20.7
-48.20%
20.4
-27.11%
3.3
-33.54%
2.9
-19.92%
27.7
-42.29%
17.0
-56.70%
Recovery
31.0
62.89%
164
46.74%
16.0
44.11%
21.0
62.88%
41.1
64.03%
267.2
559.33%
11.1
27.60%
14.3
38.84%
6.9
28.50%
21.4
56.40%
69.5
93.06%
2.8
37.20%
19.8
50.46%
4.6
24.87%
58.4
73.27%
4.7
45.89%
Bull
24.0
20.46%
43
40.25%
18.0
10.83%
4.0
1.18%
56.0
195.84%
23.0
58.16%
38.6
46.04%
29.2
29.49%
18.9
15.21%
10.2
10.95%
4.4
16.87%
57.7
139.66%
11.6
9.56%
109.0
314.00%
4.4
2.29%
0.0
0.00%
200% %
B ll Bull
17.0
27.7
2.9
3.3
20.4
20.7
17.9
7.9
6.4
33.0
14.7
Bear
140.1
14.0
14.0
33.0
69.0
Recovery
1872‐1882
1885‐1902
1903‐ 1906
1907‐ 1909
1932‐1956
1921‐1929
Period (Months) Period (Months)
1957 to 61
1962‐ 66
1966‐68
1970‐ 74
1974 ‐1982
1982‐87
2002‐07 1987‐ 1990
1990‐2000
4.7 0.0
4.4
58.4
109.0
4.6
19.8 11.6
57.7
2.8
4.4
69.5
21.4 10.2
6.9 18.9
29.2
14.3
38.6
11.1
23.0
267.2
56.0
41.1
21.0 4.0
16.0 18.0
43.0
164.0
24.0
31.0
0% % ‐200%
% Change S& &P Comp
400%
600%
Market Cycles ‐ Nominal Monthly Data
2007 ‐
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