Bear Markets And Recovery

Cycle 1872-1882 1885-1902 1903 1906 1903-1906 1907-1909 1921-1929 1932-1956 1957 to 61 1962-66 1966 68 1966-68 1970-74 1974 -1982 1982-87 1987-1990 1990-2000 2002-07 2007

Nominal Prices Bear ( % change) Recovery (Months) -38.61% 31.00 -31.09% 164.00 -29.04% 29 04% 16 00 16.00 -37.69% 21.00 -37.38% 41.06 -84.76% 267.19 -21.63% 11.08 -27.97% 14.30 -22.18% 22 18% 6.90 6 90 -36.06% 21.40 -48.20% 69.50 -27.11% 2.76 -33.54% 19.76 -19.92% 4.64 -42.29% 58.42 -57.30% 110.00 (Estimate)

300 180

240

1932 -Great Depression

Current (projected)

60

1974 2002 1921 1872

‐100%

‐90%

‐80%

‐70%

‐60%

‐50%

Depth of Bear Market ‐ S&P Composite Depth of Bear Market  S&P Composite

‐40%

1970

1987

1962 1982

‐30%

1957

1903

1966

0

1907

Reccovery in monthss from Bear Botttom

120

1885

‐20%

Real Returns (after inflation & dividend) Recovery Cycle Bear ( % change) (Months) 1877-92 -28.53% 9 1893-02 -22.93% 24 1903 06 1903-06 -26.18% 26 18% 15 1907-11 -34.75% 17 1914-16 -20.44% 10 1920-29 -47.10% 44 1932-37 -76.80% 53 1942-46 -48.31% 36 1948 61 1948-61 -35.38% 35 38% 32 1962-68 -21.76% 11 1970-73 -31.67% 29 1974-87 -50.06% 121 1987-00 -26.68% 20

2000 ->

-51.76%

60 (Estimate)

300 60

Current (Projected) 1920 1942

‐100%

‐90%

‐80%

‐70%

‐60%

‐50%

1948 1973 1907 1877 ‐40%

Depth of Bear Market ‐ S&P Composite (after CPI & Dividends) Depth of Bear Market  S&P Composite (after CPI & Dividends)

‐30%

1893 1987 1903 1962 1914 0

1932

Recovery in months from Beaar Bottom

240 180 120

1974

‐20%