Sk B1 6-9-03 Public Hearing Fdr- Draft Schedules For 3rd Hearing July 9544

Terrorism, Al Qa'ida, and Third Public Hearing • July 9, 2003 PANEL ONE: The Roots of Turmoil Militant Islam has spawned a series of terrorist groups, most notably al Qa'ida, with unpreced4nted"global reach and lethality. What combination of factors are producing this phenomenon and causing it to spread globally? illes Keppel .Martha Crenshaw — Karen Arrnstrong-fooiifiimiid)

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-b TWO: The Emergence of Al Qa'ida Al Qa'ida and its allies represent a new, far more complex terrorist organization than the relatively narrowly focused, often single issue groups of the past. How did Al Qa'ida arise? Why did it evolve as it has? ,Rohan Gunaratna feven Emerson (confinned) /2-' r in Fandy (confirmed) " Sageman (confirmed^ PANEL THREE: States and Terrorism

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What leads a government to support terrorism? How does it perceive the costs and advantages of such support? Does that perception change over time? Why? Has al Qa'ida's possession of substantial resources independent of any state changed a potential sponsor's calculus? How significant is the ideology of such groups, especially al Qa'ida's revolutionary ambitions, to potential sponsors? rie Mylroie (confirmed) ith Yaphe (confirmed) rtaTWSrr Jouejati (confirme PANEL FOUR: The Future of Al Qa'ida What is the likely future of al Qa'ida and its allies? Growing power? Or are they already declining? What factors will contribute to that evolution? What exactly is the importance of U.S. regional policies and actions to the future of such groups? lichard Murphy (confirmed) Fouad Ajami

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Possible Speakers for 3rd Set of Public Hearings The session would have three panels- the broader context from which Middle Eastern terrorist groups emerge; the emergence of some specific groups and; the question of state sponsorship. Panel One- Why Middle East Terrorist Groups? Why Now? Bernard Lewis, professor at Princeton, dean of American scholars of Islam and the Middle East (brilliant, limitless erudition, excellent speaker','! | Gilles Keppel, French scholar, (began with very well respected work on Algerian Islamist groups, has developed in very able e.xpen on broader issue of extremism. North African work provides perspective ten missing from American discussions.) Martha Crenshaw. Wesleyari -University in Connecticut. Current focus is on the historical perspective on terrorism as a general problem. ''(I have not heard her speak but her writing is clear and compelling, not academic dreary.) Steven Emerson, independent scholar. I (serious, student of fundamentalism (especially in the US)

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Panel Two- Emergence of Specific Groups Al Qaida - Rohan Gunaratna. University of St Andrews. Highly experienced investigator and scholar, author of the definitive book on Al Qaida. /! \h - Augustus Richard (Dick) Norton. Professor, Boston Vn, i Army officer, professor at West PoiatrTrSie^expert on complex \, a!mostafl Lebanese brjpg"to the discussion).

ery articulate, former^ anese problernY&yithout th>pflffisan

; Saudi Arabian dissidents - Mamoun Fandy- Professor, NDU, published one the first and best studies of : the Saudi Islamist opposition (1999) Articulate, often forceful speaker but solid scholar '. / (Hamas - liana Kass - Professor of Strategy, NDU. Very thoughtful, broad perspective (Former Israeli AF Major, Russian scholar), able, quick thinking speaker. • — -• Marc Sageman.

Panel Three- State Sponsorship

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Ir?q- Laurie Mylroie, controversial schola/guaranteed color in^iriy discussion. Has long argued for solid Injqi-Al Qaidalinks. ..... — Jr-Phoebe Marr, long established, pioneering student offraq, head of Mid East studies at NDU for years, retired about two years ago but still often speaks publicly (probable clash with Mylroie) 'I

\h Yaphe, replaced Marr at NDU. Former senior CIA Iraq analyst! j Tcolorful. witty speaker. (Certain clash with Mylroie)

Iran- Stephen Fairbanks, retired, long term STATE/INR Iran analyst. Ran the US Cultural Center in Tehran before the Revolution. Very well known and respected, PhD in Iranian studies, until recently director of Radio Free Iran. Deep knowledge, clear presentations but

/ // Syria - Marwan Jouejati. Former Asad regime official, from very influential family. Excellent English, ,V^$?5r0''£*£witty proponent of sophisticated arguments. Despite regime ties, offers clear, well argued criticism of Syrian policy. Would give very balanced presentatio of standard Syrian view- Al C^ida is terrorism, Hizballah is not. A/\*lL I

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How Arab Governments See the Costs/Benefits of State Sponsorshsip - Shibley ibley Telhamr Professor at Maryland, superb thinker and speaker, always offers well presented, challenging views. Much in demand, may be hard to get. US Policies and the Rise of Islamist Fundamentalism - Richard Murphy, Council on Foreign Relations. Former Assistant Secretary of State for the Near East. Argues from a mixture of long experience and scholarly knowledge, shrewd, careful with terms but will not shy from controversy. Arabs will see him as too nuanced, some Americans will see him as an Arab apologist. He is neither.