Scenario Planning

Scenario Thinking Generic Workshop Template Lawrie Phipps

Before the day  Assign

delegates to a group and give them pre reading. Ask them to add detail, such as headlines that illustrate the scenario

Introduce the day - 20 minutes  What

is the purpose of the day (why are we doing the scenario thinking/planning)  Explain scenario thinking/planning

Points to get across

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Future-gazing and making accurate predictions is difficult. Most are wrong. Scenario planning, by using trend analysis as its base, keeps focus in the prediction period to somewhere around the 10-year mark, this helps build tests of plausibility into the process. The 10 year period is far enough in the future to allow creative thought not inhibited by what we know. Emphasize that the scenarios are not real, nor are they expected to come true. They are designed to be 'extreme' to aid creativity.

The Scenario Process • • •  • • • •

Scope the issue (why are we doing it) Trend analysis Build Scenarios For workshops in a one day format the previous are already done Further build scenarios (for example what would education look like) Generate options Test Options Action Plan

Get into groups  In

the groupwork:  Record everything on flip charts  Make notes  Record with sound and video if possible

3. Further enhancement (in groups) 120 minutes   

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In the education context (for which this was designed) Brainstorm the context (e.g what would education look like? 30 minutes Ask the delegates to build profiles for ‘actors’ 15 minutes per profile (try splitting group in two, do two profiles per group) 30 minutes then feedback to each other on the profile (worth recording) Ask them: Brainstorm   

Opportunities 10 minutes Challenges 10 minutes Changes from where we are now 10 minutes

Generate Options 45 minutes  Brainstorming

against the profiles - what (technology/process) would be an enabler in this scenario

 Over 

 

Lunch

Bring delegates together in one room along with the enabler flipcharts Give everyone the chance to look at each one Give everyone the chance to vote for what looks the most interesting options

Building up the options  In

groups (either the same ones or divide them by 'role' eg. lecturer, student as per the profiles, or processes you wish to examine. It is preferable to have at least one person from each scenario.  Spend time building 5 to 8 'favourite' options

Testing the options  Bring

the flipcharts back to plenary.  get all delegates to identify if they would work in their scenario (ticks or post-its etc)