Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be

Put the individual in climate context.

HOW MUCH POWER DO I USE?

Energy is measured in Joules (J)

Lifting an apple from the ground to the table. ~ 1 Joule

Power is measured in Watts (W). 1 Watt = 1 Joule / second 40 apples per second from the ground to the table = 40 Watts.

Running this Apple laptop takes 40 Watts.

The Power of me: Calculating my energy consumption Power, in Watts, is like an average. The average amount of energy, in Joules, you use each second. If you do something yearly (like fly 105,000 miles), it contributes: 168,207 kilometers 1 year

�

1 year 31,536,000 seconds

�

1.40 megajoules 1 kilometer

� 7,462

Joules second

= 7,462 Watts

If you do something monthly (like your electricity bill), it contributes: 122 kilowatt ·hours

�

1 month

1 month 2,952,000 seconds

�

3.6 megajoules 1 kilowatt · hour

� 170

Joules second

= 170 Watts

If you do something daily (like drink 1 Energy drink), it contributes: 1 energy drink 1 day

�

1 day 86,400 seconds

�

7.84 megajoules 1 bottle

� 90

Joules second

= 90 Watts

So now you can add all these things. Yearly things + Monthly things + Daily things = your lifestyle in watts.

"Watts per always"

100W

Think of your life in light bulbs.... A 12,000 Watt lifestyle is 120 x 100 watt light bulbs burning permanently.

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OA 0 O W 21 K OA K-O 0W DC -DC RD 18 -O AK -M 0 ON 18 W -QU 0 QU W E2 E-D 10 TW -SF W O2 10 SFO BUR-O W -JFK AK 20 O A 200 K-BUR W W 20 W JFK-SFO 200 W SFO-BO BOS-ORD S 210 W 70 W ORD-SFO 14 0W SFO-JFK 200 W JFK-SFO 200 W

MISCSTU

230 W 0W JC 23 SJO-S W 280 -VIJ SJC W 280 JC S J VI

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W ELEC 8 OTHER 0W ELEC 7 LIGHTS 1W O ELEC STERE W ELEC 1 LAPTOP W EC 10 TER EL COMPU W 0 ELEC 3 FRIDGE 00 W G GAS 4 HEATIN

W 80 LS UE 0 W ILF 4 W SS IC 10 . FO CTR ES AG LE ICID .E AG PEST 0 W 0 W 2 . 6 E AG EE W N I FF 10 &W W CO S ER AIN 0W 20 BE R GR TS 9 GA U S& SU AL &N RE EG CE ,V 0W UIT 50 W S 3 FR IL 0W IRY DO 16 DA AN GGS TS &E FA AT ME

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COOKING GAS 30 W SHOWERS GAS 70 W

My 2007 life: 18000 Watts.

W

BOO KS 130 WA W BIK STED I S NE ES PO TEXT WS 6 WW SA L 9 ILES EL A 18 EC 0 W TER 1 W T 90 W RAN TR 60 SPO ON W RTT IC CO S2 OM M E 4 50 PU 0W W TE RS 70 0 W

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7 000 000 000 People

Per capita power use 2003

Per Capita Energy Use 2003 30

1 Qatar 2 Iceland 3 United Arab Emirates 4 Bahrain 5 Luxembourg 6 Netherlands Antilles 7 Kuwait 8 Trinidad and Tobago 9 Canada 10 United States 11 Brunei Darussalam 12 Finland 13 Norway 14 Sweden 15 Australia

25

20

kilowatts

16 Belgium 17 Saudi Arabia 18 Singapore 19 Gibraltar 20 Netherlands 21 Oman 22 France 23 Russian Federation 24 New Zealand 25 Korea, Rep 26 Czech Rep 27 Germany 28 Austria 29 Japan 30 United Kingdom 31 Denmark 32 Ireland 33 Switzerland 34 Estonia 35 Turkmenistan 36 Slovenia 37 Slovakia 38 Kazakhstan 39 Cyprus 40 Spain 41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 42 Israel 43 Italy 44 Ukraine 45 Greece 46 Belarus 47 Lithuania 48 South Africa 49 Hungary 50 Bulgaria

15

10

US Average.

5 Global Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

Energy Use by Region energy by region [NorAmer-Eur-MiddEast + NorAfr-CenAme & Car+SouAme+Asia(ex MidEst) ]

Power Watts/person

12000 north america

11400 Watts

Average Per Person Power in Watts

10000

8000 Europe

5400 Watts 6000 Middle-east & North Africa

2300 Watts 4000

Central America & the Carribean

1800 Watts South America

1580 Watts

2000

0

0

1000

2000

3000 Population in Millions.

Asia (excluding middle east)

1450 Watts

4000

5000

6000

Energy production Humanity

18 TW

Units shown in Terawatts (TW)

Nuclear: 0.37

Gas: 3.2

Coal: 3.6

Hydro: 0.36 Wind: 0.06 Solar: 0.016 Geothermal: 0.03 Tidal: 0.0005 Plants: 5.2

Oil:5

Cumulative NationalCO CO2 Emissionsfrom fromfossil-fuel Fossil-Fuelburning, Burning,ceCumulative national emissions 2 Cement Manufacture, Flaring: 1751-2004 ment manufacture, andand gasGas flaring: 1751-2004 90

80

1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA 2 USSR 3 CHINA_MAINLAND 4 GERMANY_COMBINE 5 JAPAN_COMBINE 6 UNITED_KINGDOM 7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE 8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO 9 INDIA 10 CANADA 11 POLAND 12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION 13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO 14 SOUTH_AFRICA 15 MEXICO

giga metric tons of carbon

70

60

50

40

30

20

16 AUSTRALIA 17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA 18 BELGIUM 19 SPAIN 20 BRAZIL 21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA 22 NETHERLANDS 23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN 24 SAUDI_ARABIA 25 INDONESIA 26 ROMANIA 27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA 28 ARGENTINA 29 VENEZUELA 30 TURKEY 31 UKRAINE 32 TAIWAN 33 AUSTRIA 34 SWEDEN 35 HUNGARY 36 THAILAND 37 DENMARK 38 ALGERIA 39 BULGARIA 40 EGYPT 41 GREECE 42 SWITZERLAND 43 NIGERIA 44 MALAYSIA 45 FINLAND 46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES 47 KAZAKHSTAN 48 IRAQ 49 COLOMBIA 50 PAKISTAN

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Out of equilibrium

Atmosphere to Ocean 2 GtC/year Soils 3000 GtC

Atmosphere 600 GtC +2

Carbon to Atmosphere

8 GtC/year Oceans 40000 GtC

Vegetation 700 GtC

Accessible Fossil Fuels 1600 GtC

Atmospheric CO2 concentration. 380

370

CO2 Level (ppm) CO2 concentration (ppm)

360

350

Mauna Loa Direct Measurement

340

Hawaii

330

320

Ice Core 20 year Average Law Dome Antarctica

310 1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980 year

1985 Year

1990

1995

2000

2005

Temperature Changes around the world in the last quarter of the 20th century Trends in °C per decade

-1

-1

- 0.8

- 0.6

- 0.4 - 0.2

0 + 0.2 + 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.8

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0

+1

+0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 +1

The aesthetic choice... The design challenge...

?

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Climate models: Physics and chemistry-based computer models of planet 1000 ppm

750 ppm 6.0

650 ppm

Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius

5.5 5.0

550 ppm

4.5

Entire cities and countries lost to sea level

500 ppm

4.0

20-50% Species Lost 1-4 Billion people face water shortages

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0

400 ppm

450 ppm

15-40% Species Lost

10% Species Lost

1.5 1.0 0.5

Scenarios A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a

0.0 -0.5 -1.0

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

Scenarios: Guesses at humanity's reactions: "business as usual vs. change" 1000 ppm

750 ppm 6.0

650 ppm

Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius

5.5 5.0

550 ppm

4.5

Entire cities and countries lost to sea level

500 ppm

4.0

20-50% Species Lost 1-4 Billion people face water shortages

3.5 3.0 2.5

400 ppm

450 ppm

15-40% Species Lost

2.0

10% Species Lost

1.5 1.0 0.5

Scenarios A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a

0.0 -0.5 -1.0

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

Impact Studies: Ecosystem, geopolitical, and other impacts, as predicted by climate models and scenarios. 1000 ppm

750 ppm 6.0

650 ppm

Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius

5.5 5.0

Entire cities and countries lost to sea level

550 ppm

4.5

500 ppm

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5

450 ppm 400 ppm IRREVERSIBLE FEEDBACKS

20-50% Species Lost 1-4 Billion people face water shortages Resource wars 15-40% Species Lost 90% Coral Reefs Lost 10% Species Lost

1.0 0.5

Scenarios A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a

0.0 -0.5 -1.0

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

What if we choose?

650 550

450ppm CO2 (year2000) Preindustrial

368

280

+2oC

Global consumption

Sources of renewable energy.

16 TW

85 000 TW Surface Solar 3.5 TW Tidal

31 000 TW Atmospheric Absorption

41 000 TW Evaporation

38 000 TW Land & Water heating

300 TW Hydro Clouds 3600 TW Wind 25 TW Hydro Land 32 TW Geo thermal 7.2 TW Hydro Rivers 62 TW Ocean surface waves 90 TW Photosynthesis 3 TW Coastal waves

25 TW Ocean

65 TW Land 100 TW Ocean thermal gradient

2033 Energy Mix

16 TW

Units shown in Terawatts (TW)



ar Nuclear: 3 r cle u N ew OtheGeothermal ew N2 N 3TW TW 5 . 0

(carbon-free) Biofuels: 0.5



Fossil Fuels:

2

2TW

Fo

s

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lF ssi

Existing Nuclear: 1 2TW

Existing Hydro / ar cle u N ing t s i Renewables: E0.5 x 1TW



Photo Voltaic H ting s i Ex W Solar T 5 0.

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Photo Voltaic

²

² m

10

0

10 0

m

²

m²

m²

10 0

10 0

100 m

²

100m

100m²

100m²

100m²

10

0

m

²

² m 0 ² 10 0m 0 1 ² 0m 10 m² 100 ² 100m

2 TW New Photo Voltaic

10

0

m

²

² m 0 ² 10 0m 0 1 ² 0m 10 m² 100 ² 100m

10

0

m

²

100 m² 10 0m ² 1 0 0m 1 ² 0 0m ²

100m

²

100m²

100m²

100m²

100m²

100m²

100m²

100m

100m

100 m

m 100

10 0

0 10

10 0

0

m

0 10

0 m ²

m ²

m²

m²

0 10

m 100

²

100m

²

100m²

100m²

²

100m²

100m

0 10

10

0 10 0

²

0 10

m

100 m² 10 0m ² 1 0 0m 1 ² 0 0m ²

0

10

10

10

10 0 ²

m

²

m²

m²

²

²

ec. s 1

100 m² of solar cells every second for the next 25 years. 15% efficiency, good sitting.

m

²

m

m²

m²

²

²

²

Solar Thermal

² 5

5

0

m

²

50

m

m²

m²

50

50

50 m

²

² 50 m

50 m ²

50m²

50 m ²

50 m

m² 50 ² 50 m

m 50

m 50

0

m

²

²

²

²

2 TW New Solar Thermal

5

0

m

5

5

²

0m

ec. s 1

²

50

m²

0

m

²

50 m

²

50

m² 50 ² 50 m

m²

50

m²

50 m ² 50 m ²

50 m

²

50 m ²

50 m ²

50m²

50m²

50 m ²

50 m ²

50 m

50 m

50 m

50 m

50

m²

50

50

5 5

5

m ²

m

m²

m²

²

50

50

50 m

²

50 m

²

50 m ²

50m²

50 m ²

m²

50 m ² 50 m ²

50

m²

²

50

50

50 0

²

50 m

m

0

0

50 m² 50 m 5 ² 0 m ²

²

²

50 m² solar thermal  of25 years mirrors every second for the next 25 years. 30% efficiency, well sited.

m

²

m

m²

m²

²

²

²

Dia

met er

Wind

100 m

m 100

me Dia

ter

2 TW New Wind

0 10

m

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10 0

m

Di am

100m Diameter

et er

100m Diameter

10 0

m

12 3MW wind turbines in Di am

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great locations every hour.

0 10 m 100

100 m

Or one 100m diameter

Dia er met

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Dia me

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m

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3 TW New Nuclear

Nuclear

March SUN

MON

TUE

WED

THU

FRI

SAT

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

1x 3GW Nuclear plant every week for the next 25 years.

2 TW Geothermal

Geothermal

March SUN

MON

TUE

WED

THU

FRI

SAT

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

3x 100MW steam turbines

9

10

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

every day for next 25 years.

0m ² 12 50 m² 12 50 m² 12 50 1 m 25 ² 0 m ²

m²

125

1250

1250m²

1250m²

1250m²

1

25

0

m

²

² m 0 5 ² 12 0m 5 12 m² 50 2 1 ² 0m 125 m² 1250

0.5 TW carbon (net zero) biofuels?.

Biofuel

25

25

1

0

m

²

² m 0 5 ² 12 0m 5 12 m² 50 2 1 ² 0m 125 m² 1250

0

m

²

1250 m² 1 2 5 0m ² 12 5 0m ² 12 5 0m 12 ² 5 0m ²

1

1250m²

1250m²

1250m²

1250m²

1250m²

1250m²

1250

1250

125

m²

125

m²

² m 0 ² 25 m 1 50 12 m² 50 12 m² 50 12 ² 0m

m

²

1250

1250m²

1250m²

² m 0 ² 25 m 1 50 12 m² 50 12 m² 50 12 ² 0m 125 m²

0

1250m² 1250 m² 125 0m ² 12 5 0m ² 12 5 0 m² 12 5 0m ²

25

1

0m ² 12 50 m² 12 50 m² 12 50 1 m 25 ² 0 m ²

ec. s 1

1250 m² or 1 olympic swimming pool of algae every second for the next 25 years.

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 VEN NAM MOZ PAK TUR CHL ZMB MMR AFG SOM CAF MDG UKR KEN BWA FRA YEM THA ESP TKM CMR PNG MAR IRQ UZB SWE GRL PRY ZWE JPN DEU COG MYS VNM CIV OMN POL NOR FIN PHL ITA ECU BFA NZL ESH GAB GIN GBR LAO ROM GHA BLR UGA GUY SEN KGZ SYR KHM URY SUR TUN NPL TJK BGD GRC NIC PRK HND BGR BEN CUB GTM YUG ERI ISL KOR LBR MWI HUN PRT JOR ARE AUT AZE CZE PAN SLE GEO IRL LKA LTU LVA HRV TGO BIH CRI DOM SVK BTN DNK EST CHE TWN NLD MDA BEL LSO ARM GNB GNQ SLB HTI ALB MKD BDI RWA DJI ISR BLZ SLV FJI SVN KWT TLS SWZ JAM QAT VUT GMB BHS LBN PSE PRI CYP SGP FSM BHR TON KIR DMA STP HGK MUS COM LUX WSM CPV TTO BRN

MRT ETH EGY NGA TZA

PER NER TCD AGO MLI ZAF BOL COL

IRN MNG

IDN LBY

DZA SDN COD SAU MEX

IND ARG KAZ

BRA AUS

USA

CAN

CHN

RUS

km

Land area by country represented as scaled stripes “Renewistan” - 10TW

10000

2TW Wind 5TW Solar 1TW Hydro 2TW Biofuels

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

10000

km

US energy consumption (TeraWatts)

Sep.11.2001.

3.5

Oil Crises.

2.5 2

Recession.

3

Depression.

1.5 1 0.5 0

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

"The Game Plan" slideset release 1.01, March 21 2008

67

2008 The year of 'peak waste'

If the average American were to leave home each morning with a backpack full of the fuel they needed for their day: Oil = 31 kg, 67 lb. Coal = 29 kg, 63 lb. Gas = 6 kg, 12 lb. 11 400 Watts.

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My 2007 life: 18000 Watts.

W

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PHYSICAL STUFF ~2500 Watts

House

What about products?

Consumption Facts Container Mass 1.58oz (44.9g) Components per container 3

Embodied Energy Per Container Total 4,609,420 Joules PETE 38.81g 3,962,400 Joules HDPE 4.83g 497,500 Joules Cellulosic 1.34g 149,520 Joules Recycle rate Landfill rate Energy recovery rate Lost to environmental waste Personal Energy Footprint Total Transport (avg.estimated) Manufacture Embodied Energy Refrigeration (avg.estimated)

23% 43% 16% 18% % Daily Value* 4.54% 0.69% 0.46% 2.67% 0.71%

* Personal Energy Footprint is based on a recommended 2000 Watt lifestyle. The average US consumer has a 11400 Watt lifestyle. ! Consuming this product daily is equivalent to increasing your energy footprint by 90 Watts.

Also contains

per bottle

Plasticizers Estrogen Carcinogenic Dye

43mg† 0.12mg† 0.19mg†

† Safe daily values not yet established.

There's a known and reasonably predictable amount of carbon left to burn:

future

future

coal

oil

gas

CO2 ppm = CO2 ppm + 0.2 x TWy + 0.15 x TWy + 0.11 x TWy

1 TWy = 1 Terawatt Year = 3.16 x 1019 Joules.

1 Joule of fossil energy used produces 4.9x10 -21 ppm increase. How many ppm to replace every gasoline car in the world (1bN) with a 1000kg electric vehicle? = 0.49 ppm How many ppm for 250 million new green homes? = 8.9 ppm How many ppm for installing : 5TW solar = 6.1 ppm 3TW wind = 0.55 ppm 2TW geothermal = 0.49 ppm So there is + 19 ppm right there. Scary. Might be good to ask questions of form: How many ppm for 6 bN new laptops? = 0.05 ppm 6 bN cellphones? = 0.03 ppm 6 bN 100 Watt lightbulbs burning for 1 year? = 0.2ppm

And we will too. The world demands more and more energy. Where will it come from? We at Chevron are working to provide more of it, both responsibly and efficiently. And we’re developing alternatives. But it’s just as important for all of us to do more with less. We’re doing it ourselves — and enabling others. Our Chevron Energy Solutions team is dedicated to helping others use less energy. In Colorado, we’ve worked with the state to improve 20 state buildings. The extensive makeover is expected to save more than $20 million over the next two decades. It’s just one of the hundreds of projects that will help businesses and government organizations reduce their energy costs by over $1 billion. Join us in one of the most important efforts of our time — using less. Will you? Learn more at will you join us.com.

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