S&p 500 Weekly (log Scale): “supercycle Peak” < B >
This document was uploaded by user and they confirmed that they have the permission to share it. If you are author or own the copyright of this book, please report to us by using this DMCA report form. Report DMCA
Overview
Download & View S&p 500 Weekly (log Scale): “supercycle Peak” < B > as PDF for free.
More details
- Words: 763
- Pages: 7
S&P 500 Weekly (Log Scale)
“Supercycle Peak” - II -
-I- IV The model displayed here is the reason many traditional Elliott Wave technicians are bearish the market for the next few years. The belief is that a Supercycle wave concluded in 2000 and that we’re in a cycle Wave down having seen only a Primary wave1 down within the cycle . Some might ask: Why couldn’t the have already finished in March? The answer is it was much too short in duration. Given the size of the and waves, this should last at least four years, UNLESS this is a massive triangle taking shape. See next three pages for another possible outcome…
- III -
-V-
1576 ( II )
S&P 500 Weekly (Log Scale)
- II -
1440 ( IV ) ( II )
(I)
( III )
(V)
-I-
A perfect Elliott Wave Channel (I)
There are a lot of Elliott Wave technicians that are convinced that the move from 1576 to 667 was an impulsive “five wave.” I’m not as convinced. There is actually only one “clear” “five wave” here and that is the move from 1440667. The “impulse” in the dashed box has been considered a “five”, but that final wave (V) was always “ugly.” This model is the reason I was looking for a reversal between 900 and 1000 this summer--I could really only count three waves so I was looking for a shallow Wave -IV- before a final Wave -V-. This was a miscount and a mistake.
( IV )
( III )
So where does this leave the model?
667 (V)
- III -
1576
(B)
-B-
Or, the Cycle < B > Concluded Here with the peak in the DJ Transportation Index
1440 ( II )
(A)
A perfect Elliott Wave Channel
(C)
-A-
(I)
This would be the model that I’m forced to go with. Either we had an -ABCdown and we completed a Cycle Wave within a larger Triangle, OR, the traditional Elliott Wave count from the first slide is correct, but the Cycle actually began in late May/early June 2008 when the Dow Jones Transportation Index peaked.
( IV )
( III )
This would leave us with the following models going forward…..
667 (V)
- C - of
This is a longer range bullish model that has become an increasing possibility given the price action between 2007 and 2009. We could be carving out a Supercycle Wave IV triangle. The 1165 zone would the be the 62% of = target. The 38% of = <E> from there would be the 820 zone a be a “neutral” triangle as the <E> wave would conclude in the area of the Wave.
Supercycle Wave III
1165
820
<E>
IV
S&P 500 Weekly (Log Scale)
This is “Credit Deflation Wins” bearish Model. As referenced earlier, the only clear impulsive move was from 1440 to 667. The 61.8% retrace of that move would be 1145. This would be the highest level consistent with a Primary Wave -II-.
Supercycle Ends
- II 1145
-I-
S&P 500 Weekly (Log Scale) - III Credit Deflation Collapse
(Y)
S&P 500 Daily (Log Scale) It’s difficult to ignore the massive “rising wedge” look to this whole shape, which in classic charting, is considered quite bearish. I still have to count the entire move up from 667 as “complex” correction (involving an x-wave).
alt: ( W )
3
“c” 5
1 “a”
4
“b”
2
(W)
869
(X)
If an (X) wave conclude at 869, then we must be able to count out an “abc” type move higher. Highlighted here is one possibility. In this case here, we would be dealing with a terminal “diagonal” pattern for a “c” wave. It calls for one more small move higher after wave 4 completes. This is going to be easy to detect because any new high should result in an extremely bearish reversal--we should see a very severe move lower.
667
(Z)
S&P 500 Daily (Log Scale)
“c” “a”
(Y) “c” “a”
“b” 1020
alt: ( W )
“b”
(W)
(X)
869
(X)
This would be the shorter term bullish count. Given the propensity of this market to grind higher and “exceed” expectations, this must be given consideration. This model gives us the “break down” level. A break of 1020 would kill this bullish case. It would give the bears a “decisive” breakdown of all uptrend lines and classic chart support.
667
“Supercycle Peak” - II -
-I- IV The model displayed here is the reason many traditional Elliott Wave technicians are bearish the market for the next few years. The belief is that a Supercycle wave concluded in 2000 and that we’re in a cycle
- III -
-V-
1576 ( II )
S&P 500 Weekly (Log Scale)
- II -
1440 ( IV ) ( II )
(I)
( III )
(V)
-I-
A perfect Elliott Wave Channel (I)
There are a lot of Elliott Wave technicians that are convinced that the move from 1576 to 667 was an impulsive “five wave.” I’m not as convinced. There is actually only one “clear” “five wave” here and that is the move from 1440667. The “impulse” in the dashed box has been considered a “five”, but that final wave (V) was always “ugly.” This model is the reason I was looking for a reversal between 900 and 1000 this summer--I could really only count three waves so I was looking for a shallow Wave -IV- before a final Wave -V-. This was a miscount and a mistake.
( IV )
( III )
So where does this leave the model?
667 (V)
- III -
1576
(B)
-B-
Or, the Cycle < B > Concluded Here with the peak in the DJ Transportation Index
1440 ( II )
(A)
A perfect Elliott Wave Channel
(C)
-A-
(I)
This would be the model that I’m forced to go with. Either we had an -ABCdown and we completed a Cycle
( IV )
( III )
This would leave us with the following models going forward…..
667 (V)
- C - of
This is a longer range bullish model that has become an increasing possibility given the price action between 2007 and 2009. We could be carving out a Supercycle Wave IV triangle. The 1165 zone would the be the 62% of =
Supercycle Wave III
820
<E>
IV
S&P 500 Weekly (Log Scale)
This is “Credit Deflation Wins” bearish Model. As referenced earlier, the only clear impulsive move was from 1440 to 667. The 61.8% retrace of that move would be 1145. This would be the highest level consistent with a Primary Wave -II-.
Supercycle Ends
- II 1145
-I-
S&P 500 Weekly (Log Scale) - III Credit Deflation Collapse
(Y)
S&P 500 Daily (Log Scale) It’s difficult to ignore the massive “rising wedge” look to this whole shape, which in classic charting, is considered quite bearish. I still have to count the entire move up from 667 as “complex” correction (involving an x-wave).
alt: ( W )
3
“c” 5
1 “a”
4
“b”
2
(W)
869
(X)
If an (X) wave conclude at 869, then we must be able to count out an “abc” type move higher. Highlighted here is one possibility. In this case here, we would be dealing with a terminal “diagonal” pattern for a “c” wave. It calls for one more small move higher after wave 4 completes. This is going to be easy to detect because any new high should result in an extremely bearish reversal--we should see a very severe move lower.
667
(Z)
S&P 500 Daily (Log Scale)
“c” “a”
(Y) “c” “a”
“b” 1020
alt: ( W )
“b”
(W)
(X)
869
(X)
This would be the shorter term bullish count. Given the propensity of this market to grind higher and “exceed” expectations, this must be given consideration. This model gives us the “break down” level. A break of 1020 would kill this bullish case. It would give the bears a “decisive” breakdown of all uptrend lines and classic chart support.
667
Related Documents
Geotubo Gt-500
April 2020 0
<enter Project Title>
May 2020 15
>sistema Operacional Linux<
July 2020 6
Weekly Fitness Log
November 2019 2More Documents from ""
