S&p 500 Weekly (nonlog) ~ “unimportant” Trend Lines

S&P 500 Weekly (NonLog) ~ “Unimportant” Trend Lines 1576

Some trend lines are more important than others. A lot of “technical types” have highlighted this particular trend line. Perhaps this is going to be provide important resistance, but in terms of Wave Analysis, this is an irrelevant line. The move that finished at 667 was a COMPLETE wave, therefore the trend lines created from the lesser degree waves are no longer of much importance. However, others are looking at it, so we will as well…..

Maybe a break of this line will trigger a last bout of short covering?

667

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 Daily ~ A Triple Completed? (Z)

Bulls should treat 1061 and 1029 as first and second levels of medium term support.

(Y) “c”

“c”

“a”

1061 “a”

1029

(X) “b”

(W)

“b” 957

alt ( W )

869

(X)

This is the basic model that’s been employed for months now, ever since 957 was taken out. This corrective move up from 667 must be considered some kind of “double” or “triple” combination (a moving involving x-waves). Earlier this month, I had thought the (Z)-Wave here might evolve into a ‘triangle,’ but that has not happened yet. One of the odd things on this chart, among many things, is the way the market has just meandered through the uptrend line (light blue) as if it wasn’t respecting it all. This sort of “non-eventful” break of a trend line is almost always associated with a “triangle” development. According to this model, we should have a completed move higher; so where’s the breakdown?

667

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 Daily - Another Push Higher? (Z)

When a market doesn’t “behave” in a way anticipated by the models, the model is probably wrong. So, what else could be going on here? Highlighted here is a decent possibility. In this one, the (X) wave concludes later at 1029. The “a”-wave up from 1029 is best counted as a five advance, therefore the 1061 level should be important to hold for the “b”-wave. This model should decisively take out the 1114 highs and get “technical types” “excited” about breaking that trend line from the first page of this report.

“c”

“c” “b”

“a” “w”

(W)

“a”

“x”

(Y)

“b”

1029

“y”

(X)

alt ( W )

869

(X) Ever since 957 was taken out, my posture has been to not even think about calling “the top” in this market until it finally shows confirmed signs of breaking down. It almost did that at 1029 when it nearly took out a previous low. But, let’s face it, it held in there. In the longer term, I remain convinced that a very deep correction is coming, but until this market finally shows some evidence of “peaking,” there’s no point in getting short or guessing at tops.

This is the count that would support the model on the next page 667

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

This is a longer range bullish model that has become an increasing possibility given the price action between 2007 and 2009. We could be carving out a Supercycle Wave IV triangle. The 1165 zone would the be the 62% of = target. The 38% of = <E> from there would be the 820 zone a be a “neutral” triangle as the <E> wave would conclude in the area of the Wave.

Reprinted from 10/24/09

Supercycle Wave III



1165

820

<E>



IV

S&P 500 Weekly (Log Scale)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

“b”

S&P 500 (60 min)

3

“a” of ( Z ) 5

-5-

-5-

-b-

(b)

(c)

-3(5) (b) (3)

(a)

(d)

“b”

(a) (a)

(4) (c)

(e) -4-

(b)

4 (c)

-a(1) -1-

“b” (2)

1

1161 -2-

2

This would be the bullish interpretation in support of the Model on Page 3. It would mean that the market must hold above 1161 and would mean decisively higher high.

(X)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 Daily ~ A Triangle Conclusion? “a”

(Y)

(Z)

“c”

c

a

“e”

“c” “b”

“a”

(X)

“d”

b

“b”

(W) alt ( W )

869

(X)

Because of the way we saw this “non-eventful” break of the long standing trend line, we must be still be open to a larger triangle developing up here. At this point, it’s difficult to imagine what it might look like. Perhaps we see weeks and weeks of congestion to close out the year and begin the new year?

Based on the few possibilities that exist in finishing this wave up from 667, it’s going to be important to keep track of how the market “behaves.” Does it “impulsively” moving lower? Does it congest? Does it make another “impulsive” move higher? At this point, only more price action will ‘tell the tale.’

667

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 - Daily (Log Scale) - A Triple Combination?

(Y) “c”

A triple combination is of the structure: 5-3-5-X-5-3-5-X-Triangle

“c”

“e”

“d”

“a”

(X) (W)

(Z)

“a”

“b”

“b”

alt ( W )

957

“c”

869

“a”

(X) “b” This model is looking more viable with each day. The steep uptrend line was broken on the log scale charts, which is the chart scale we should be using for a move that covered this much distance. Retesting the backside of a broken trend line is common--this might be what is going on here. Or, as implied by this model, we’re forming a concluding triangle that will “exhaust” all remaining buyers.

Reprinted from 11/9/09 It would take a break above 1110 to start damaging this model--that would be the “a”=“c” target.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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