Qualitative Risk Assessment Of The Hp Avian Influenza Emergence In The Sub-saharan Africa (senegal)

Qualitative Risk Assessment of Avian Influenza Emergence in Sub-saharan African Countries: The case of Senegal Mayigane L.N.1 ; Etter E.2 & Akakpo A.J.1 1 Inter-States School of Veterinary Sciences and Medicine (EISMV) of Dakar, Senegal 2 CIRAD UR 22 " Animal et Gestion Intégrée des Risques" Montpellier, France Introduction The threat of Avian Influenza in the sub-saharan african countries is still present as the epizootic continues to spread slowly within the west and central parts of the continent.

Legal Import: Brazil, France ; Holland, USA…

BIP

Senegal is at risk of the epizootic emergence with regards to the importance of the poultry industry in the country.

Methods

Border countries: Mali, Guinea Conakry, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, The Gambia

Poultry multiplication centers / Commercial farms

On the basis of international standards, we combined the likelihood of virus introduction, the likelihood of its dissemination and the consequences of an infection to assess the risk [1] . Supermarkets

Slaughterhouses

Informal trade ?

Local Markets (louma)

Principal Markets : Main cities

Rural Farms (Small producers)

Villages : Back-yard farming

First we have designed a model of poultry products importations and commercial pathways out of data collected (Figure 1). Consumers

Results The poultry farming in Senegal is essentially unimproved back-yard system (Figure 2). We established 30 and 60 scenarios for Avian Influenza emergence via respectively the legal import of breeding chicks and hatching eggs and 30 scenarios for illegal import. Each scenario is associated with a certain level of risk.

Introduction pathway Dissemination pathway

Figure 1. Possible pathways for HP H5N1 virus introduction and dissemination in Senegal

Illegal import of poultry products

MODERATE

The risk evolution with regards to the scenarios shows that only the illegal import of poultry products represents a moderate risk for 13.4 % of scenarios established (Figure 3).

LOW TO MODERATE

Level of RisK

Discussion

legal import of infected hatching eggs

LOW

legal import of infected breeding chicks

NEGLIGIBLE

Senegal is in compliance with OIE recommendations in terms of importations. Border countries to Senegal are free of Avian influenza Virus as of present status.

BIP : Border Inspection Post

Exposure places

NULL TO NEGLIGIBLE

Figure 2. Unimproved back-yard system in Senegal

0%

20%

40%

60%

Percentage of scenarios

The illegal import of poultry products has been a major cause of Avian Influenza emergence in the sub- saharan african countries so far affected [2] . The amplifying factor for the risk and which should be more addressed in the national preparedness plan is the virus dissemination likelihood. This is due to the importance of poultry trade movements within Senegal. Such work should be carried out in other african countries not yet affected for effective preparedness based on a calculated level of risk.

Figure 3. Risk evolution of Avian Influenza emergence in Senegal

References [1] Ahl A.S., Acree J.A., Gipson P.S., Mc Dowell R.M., Miller L. and McElvaine M.D., « Standardization of nomenclature for animal health risk analysis» (1993) Rev. sci. tech. Off. Int. Epiz.,12, 1045-1053 [2] Squarzoni S., Bastiaensen P., Plante C., Denormandie N. and Seck B.,« La grippe Aviaire en Afrique Subsaharienne: un premier bilan » (2006). Epidémiologie et santé animale. 50, 57-59

Acknowledgment The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development of Senegal The senegalese National Committee for Prevention and Fight against Avian Flu (CONAGA) The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)