Por Ti Folio Mgt

Reduction of Risk through Portfolio Management (A Study on Portfolio Evaluation of selected companies) *M.Madhavi

**R.Radhika ABSTRACT

The current financial crisis is creating a panic among the investors due to the turbulences of the stock markets. Investors are the basis for fund rising for a number of companies as the investors contribute their funds to the organizations through public issues. It is the responsibility of the organizations to safeguard the interests of the investors through better management of funds. But at the same time, it is necessary that the investors have some knowledge of the organizations into which their funds are invested and the risks and the returns associated with their investments. Portfolio management provides an opportunity to the investors to reduce the risks and maximize the returns through proper planning, as it considers more than one investment for the total funds available with the investors .Keeping in view the importance of the portfolio management, the authors in this paper have proposed to evaluate the risks and returns associated with some select organizations and how the investments in these companies can be converted into a good choice of portfolio. INTRODUCTION Financial planning is a holistic approach to plan for the financial future of an individual. Financial planning provides a direction and meaning for the investment decisions. The expression “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” is apt for investing and diversification is the best way to design a portfolio. An ideally diversified portfolio contains different asset classes, with different market timings. Investors’ choice always will be the combination of assets with minimum risk and maximum return. Portfolio management provides the investors with the knowledge of the risk and return analysis of securities chosen for investments. RISK A rational investor analyses the risks associated with the investment before investing his or her wealth in various forms of investments. Risk is the probability of occurrence of loss. It consists of two components, the systematic risk and the unsystematic risk. Systematic risk is the measurable par of the total risk and used in the evaluation of portfolios. Unsystematic risk is not measurable and so it is not considered for the portfolio evaluation. The systematic risk affects the entire market. This indicates the movement of the entire market and updates in periodic intervals are generally given by the media. This risk is not entirely avoidable by the investor, but is manageable. The systematic risk is measured by the computation of Standard deviation and variance.

*Head, Dept. of Mgt., Aurora’s PG College, Hyd.

She can be reached @[email protected].

** Asst. Professor, Dept of Mgt. Aurora’s PG College, Hyd. She can be reached @[email protected].

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PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

Portfolio can be defined as combination of securities that have Return and Risk characteristics of their own. Portfolio is the collection of financial or real assets such as shares, debentures, bonds, treasury bills etc. These holdings are the result of individual preferences, decisions of the holders regarding the return and risk aspects, and other considerations. Portfolio management is the combination of activities which start with the construction of a portfolio, evaluation of the performance of the portfolio, and the revision of the portfolio if necessary. Portfolio management services help investors to make a wise choice between alternative investments without a post trading shares. This service renders optimum return to the investors by proper selection and continuous shifting of portfolio from one scheme to another scheme or from, one plan to other plan within the same scheme. INVESTMENT VALUATION

Investment value, in general is taken to be the present worth to the owners of future benefits from investments.

The investor has to bear in mind the value of these investments. An

appropriate set of weights have to be applied with the use of forecasted benefits to estimate the value of the investment assets such as stocks, debentures, and bonds and other assets. Comparison of the value with the current market price of the assets allows a determination of the relative attractiveness of the asset. Each asset must be value on its individual merit. Investors are not unique and the selection of investments is not similar. Different types of investors opt for different sets of investments depending on their requirements and the returns associated with the investments. Moreover the skills of choosing the investments by each investor will be different. Based on the skill sets and choices of the investments the investors are categorized into the following types. TYPE ‘A’ INVESTOR (No Market Timing and No Stock Picking Skills)

If the investor does not believe that he has any special skills in picking undervalued stocks or in predicting the movements of the market, then the portfolio design problem becomes relatively simple. The investor simply chooses a diversified portfolio of equity stocks and debt instruments and then adjust its risk i.e. beta to the desired level. He can achieve the same effects by increasing or decreasing the allocation of equity in the overall portfolio. 2

TYPE ‘B’ INVESTOR (Only Stock- Picking Skills)

An investor who has some knowledge of the stock markets and wishes to exploit his stock picking skills should start with a base portfolio similar to that of the type A investor. He should then adjust the weights of the stock’s, which are in his opinion less-priced. Specifically, he should overweight the stocks which are overvalued and underweight those which are under valued. TYPE ‘C’ INVESTORS (Only Market-Timing Skills)

The type C investor holds a well-diversified portfolio but switches actively between defensive and offensive portfolios to take advantage of the market timing. If he expects the market to rise, he pushes his portfolio beta above his target level by any of the techniques based on market timing. The converse should be done if the investor is bearish about market. In either case, the portfolio would remain diversified all through. The portfolio of this investor is diversified, but it’s managed and not constant. TYPE ‘D’ INVESTOR (Both Stock Picks And Market-Timing Skills)

This type of investor would use the techniques used by both the type B and type C investors. These investors would have the most active and aggressive portfolio management strategies. Using their superior ability to predict booms and bust in the market as a whole and their skills in identifying undervalued scrips these can manage a well diversified and balanced port folio. TECHNIQUES FOR ANALYSIS There are different models of portfolio analysis. Among them, the most popular method and the modern method is the Harry Markowitz model of portfolio analysis and valuation. Markowitz theories emphasize the importance of the calculation of risk by measuring the standard deviation, correlation between the select securities and finally diversification of portfolio based on the risk and return aspects. Standard Deviation: It is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance. For the

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calculation of standard deviation, average return is calculated for a set of data, by adding observations and dividing the sum with the number of observations. Std. Deviation (σ ) = √ Σ(X-Average X ) 2/ N Correlation Coefficient: Correlation measures the relationship between two variables. If there is a positive correlation between the variables that indicates that both the variables are moving in the same direction. If there is a negative correlation between the variables that indicated that they are moving in different directions. For the portfolio to be efficient, the assets should be negatively correlated. Correlation Coefficient is measured by the following formula

(

)(

r= ∑ A − A . B − B

(

∑ A− A

)

) 2. ∑( B − B )2

Where A,B are returns on securities A&B A , B are average returns on securities A&B ∑ =Sum Portfolio Risk: Portfolio risk is calculated with the help of standard deviations of the independent assets and their correlation coefficient. It is measured by the following formula P=√A2.WA2+B2.WB2+2WA.WB.(rAB.)A.B Where p is the risk of the portfolio, WA,WB are the weights of the assets in the portfolio, A,B are the standard deviations of the two assets taken for the combination in the portfolio, r is the correlation coefficient of the two assets A,B METHODOLOGY This study is based on the data of returns of the stocks of the selected organizations for the period April, 2007- March, 2008. Some 11 organizations are selected for the study which are having good returns during the period of study and which are well known to the investors. These organizations are selected from different sectors like IT, Infrastructure, Petroleum, Banking to avoid risk of one particular sector influencing the portfolio risk. Based on the computation of returns and standard deviations these are formulated into combinations. Then these combinations are analyzed by measuring the port folio risk.

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From the data, average returns of these organizations are computed and standard deviations are plotted with the help of the formulae mentioned above, which are shown in the following table. Table: 2 S.No

Average Return & Std. Deviation

Company Name

Average Return

Std. Deviation

12.9720

16.8064

1

AMBUJA CEMENTS

2

INFOSYS

5.0811

5.6801

3

BAJAJ AUTO

1.3468

7.4759

4

ACC CEMENTS

2.784

8.8855

5

ZEE TELEFILMS

0.1568

6.9104

6

HDFC

2.8143

7.483

7

BPCL

-1.4734

15.4259

8

HEROHONDA

0.8815

9.8618

9

TISCO

0.6238

16.8069

10

SATYAM

2.4742

6.7543

11

WIPRO

-2.5818

21.035

The table shows that Ambuja cements is having highest return with high standard deviation and BPCL is having least return i.e. negative return with somewhat high standard deviation. HDFC shows moderate standard deviation with relatively low return. Infosys shows moderate returns with low risk. Tisco in high risk zone with less returns and zee telefilms is showing less return with less risk. Based on the calculations of average returns and standard deviations correlation coefficients are measured for the defined sets of organizations. The following table shows them. Table: 3 S.No

Correlation Coefficients Correlation coefficients

Combinations

1

AMBUJA CEMENTS & AUTO

BAJAJ

2

INFOSYS & ACC

-0.2213

3

ZEETELEFILM &HDFC

-0.0441

4

WIPRO & BPCL

-0.283

5

HEROHONDA & SATYAM

0.1272

6

BAJAJ Auto & TISCO

-0.1988

7

AMBUJA CEMENTS& INFOSYS

-0.2067

0.1185

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From the calculations of returns and risk, correlation coefficients for the defined sets are calculated. The combinations are designed so the the portfolio risk is reduced when compared to the individual risk. The following seven combinations are constructed for the analysis of portfolio risk. 1. AMBUJA CEMENTS & BAJAJ AUTO 2.

INFOSYS & ACC

3. ZEETELEFILM &HDFC 4.

WIPRO & BPCL

5. HEROHONDA & SATYAM 6.

BAJAJ Auto & TISCO

7. AMBUJA CEMENTS& INFOSYS Based on the returns and standard deviation calculations the proportions are decided for the combinations. The proportions are denoted by weights i.e. W. The total weight of the portfolio should be equivalent to one or 100%. The first combination i.e., Ambja Cements and Bajaj Auto.Ltd. is taken for the study and detailed procedure of allocation of weights and measurement of portfolio risk are explained below. The following table shows the allocation of weights to Abmjua Cements and Bajaj Auto Ltd. Table:4

WEIGHTS

WB =

Weight of Bajaj Auto Ltd.

WA WB =

Weight of Ambuja Cements B(B - rAB A) / A2 + B2 rAB A.B 7.4759 [7.4759 - (-0.1185) 16.8064.7.4759

WB = WB =

(16.8064)

/

7.47592+16.80642.(-0.1185)

70.7781 / 318.1216 W

B=

0.2225

WA =

1 – WB

WA =

1- 0.2225

WA =

0.7775

Where WA= Weight of Ambuja Cements and WB is weight of Bajaj Auto Ltd. 7

A and B are standard deviations of Ambuja Cements and Bajaj Auto ltd. rAB is the correlation coefficient of the two. After assigning weights to each of the securities in the portfolio, the portfolio risk is measured using the following procedure

Table:5

PORTFOLIO RISK

AMBUJA CEMENTS & BAJAJ AUTO P=

1/A2WA2 + B2 WB2 + 2rAB

AB

WA WB

A

=

16.8064

B =7.476

WA=

0.2225

WB=0.7775

=

P

rab=0.1185

1/(16.8064)2 (0.2225)2 + (7.4759)2 + (0.7775)2+ 2(-0.11185) (16.8064) (7.4759) (0.2225) (0.7775)

1 =

P

(13.9833) + (33.7853)-( 5.1513) 1

=

42.6173

=

6.53%

P P

Where p is the port folio risk, WA, WB are the proportions of the securities in the portfolio, A,B are standard deviations of the selected securities, rAB is the correlation coefficient of securities A,B. Here the port folio risk is 6.53% AMBUJACEMENTS&BAJAJAUTO: In this combination, the investors can invest their funds in accordance with the calculated proportion of investment i.e. 0.2225 for Ambuja and the remaining 0.7775 in Bajaj.

The

difference in weights exists because the risk of Ambuja, which is 16.8064%, is higher than that of Bajaj whose risk is 7.4759%. So if an investor has to invest funds in this protfolio it is suggested that the investor should invest a larger portion of funds in Bajaj and divert the remaining funds to Ambuja. In comparison, the portfolio risk, which is 6.53% is less than the individual risks of both the assets in the portfolio. Similarly the weight allocation and measurement of portfolio risk of Infosys and ACC are presented below. 8

WA = WB = WB = WA = WB = WB = WA = WA = WB = WB = WB =

Table:6 WEIGHTS Weight of INFOSYS Ltd. Weight of ACC B(B - rAB A ) / A2 + B2 2r AB AB 1 – WB 8.8855 [8.8855 - (-0.2213) (5.6801)]/(5.6801)2 + (8.8855)2 2(-0.2213) (5.6801) (8.8855)

8.8855 (10.1425)/ (32.2635) + (78.9521) + (22.3383) 90.1212/133.5539 0.6748 1 - WA 1 - 0.6748 0.3252

Table:7

PORTFOLIO RISK INFOSYS & ACC LTD

2 2 2 2 P= 1/ A WA + B WB +2.rAB.A.B.WA.WB.

=5.6801, B =8.8855, r AB=-0.2213 WA=0.6748, WB=.03252 A

=1/(5.6801)2 (0.6748)2 + (8.8855)2 + (0.3252)2+ 2(-0.2213) (5.6801) (8.8855) (0.6748) (0.3252)

P

=(14.6914) + (8.3496)- (4.9020)

P

=√18.139

P

=4.26%

P

INFOSYSLTD&ACC: The proportion of the investment in this combination is 0.6748 for INFOSYS and 0.3252 for ACC. The investor can invest a large share of funds in INFOSYS and a lesser part in ACC. This is because the risk of INFOSYS which is 5.6801% is less than the risk of ACC, which is 8.8855% and investors generally tend to invest in lesser riskier securities. Also the portfolio standard deviation is less than the individual risks of both the companies. Like wise portfolio risk for all the combinations is calculated by assigning weights to different securities.

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ZEE&HDFC: The standard deviation/risk of ZEE TELEFILMS is 6.9014% and the risk of HDFC is 7.4830%. This means that the risk of ZEE is less when compared to the risk of HDFC. It therefore suggests that investors can invest a greater percentage of their funds in ZEE and the remaining funds in HDFC. The calculated weight also suggests the same. It shows that an investor can invest up to 0.5380% in Zee and a ratio of 0.4620% in HDFC. If we combine both the securities the portfolio standard deviation stands at 45. WIPRO & BPCL: In this combination of portfolio, the risk of BPCL is less when compared to the risk of Wipro i.e 15.4259 < 21.0350. Also the calculated proportion of investment is 0.3817 for Wipro and 0.6183 for BPCL. So it is suggested that investor a larger share of funds in BPCL which is less risky and the remaining funds be diverted to Wipro. The calculated portfolio risk, which is 1.5873%, is less when compared to the individual standard deviations of the companies in the portfolio. HERO HONDA MOTORS & SATYAM LTD: In this set the investor can invest unto 0.3385% in HERO HONDA and 0.6615 in SATYAM. The lesser proportion of investment is because of the higher risk involved in this security when compared to SATYAM i.e. the risk of HERO HONDA which is 9.8616% is greater than that of SATYAM which is 6.7543%. Where as the portfolio risk is 5.2261% which is less than the individual risks of both companies in the portfolio. BAJAJ AUTO LTD & TISCO LTD: In this portfolio the risk of BAJAJ is less when compared to the risk of TISCO (7.4759 <16.8069). The proportion of investment arrived at is 0.7917 at is 0.7917 For BAJAJ and 0.2083 for TISCO.

The calculated portfolio risk is 6.2489%, which is much lesser when compared to

the individual standard deviation of both the companies involved in the portfolio. The following table gives a comprehensive view of the calculations of portfolio risk.

TABLE :8

PORTFOLIO RISK OF COMBINATIONS

Portfolio

Portfolio Risk (%)

10

AMBUJA Cements & INFOSYS

4.9629

AMBUJA Cements & BAJAJ Auto

6.5282

INFOSYS & ACC

4.259

ZEETELEFILMS& HDFC

4.969

WIPRO & BPCL

10.5873

HEROHONDA& SATYAM

5.2261

BAJAJ Auto & TISCO

6.2489

INFOSYS & HEROHONDA

4.885

FINDING AND CONCLUSIONS The analytical part of the study for the 12months period reveals the following. 1.

As far as the average returns of the selected companies are concerned AMBUJA cements is performing well whereas WIPRO’S average return for the period of the study is very poor.

2. As far the risk of the selected companies is concerned WIPRO’S risk is very high whereas its return is very low, so it is concluded that WIPRO scrip’s are highly risky scrip’s. AMBUJA cements stands at second place in terms of risk but it is yielding some return, this means that higher the risk higher will be the return. Another risky security in the selected scrip’s is BPCL. Rests of the scrip’s in the study are moderately risky. 3. As far the correlation coefficient is concerned the study selects only negatively correlated scrips as suggested by Markowitz model. The best correlation coefficient is existing between WIPRO& BPCL but the portfolio risk with this combination is very high when compared to other portfolio combinations hence the investors who are slightly risk averse can invest in WIPRO and BPCL’S portfolio combination. 4. Another set of portfolio that is negatively correlated is of INFOSYS & ACC this combination portfolio risk is less when compared to the risk of the other portfolios. So the investors who are conscious of the risk can invest their funds in this combination. Rest of the port folio combinations fall under the moderate risk category. CONCLUSION

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Most people agree that holding two stocks is less risky than holding one stock. Further inverting in one sector also proves to be risky. For a given level of risk an investor always prefers high return. Put simply, all investors want maximized returns with minimum risk, which can be made easy through portfolio management. It is like planning for a road trip, the decision should always be taken by the traveler himself. Selecting the destination will solve half of the problem. So, goal setting is the corner stone of financial planning exercise, which decides the needs and wants to be pursued by the investor. In India, most of the people believe that financial planning is nothing but tax planning. But tax planning is just a part of financial planning. Financial planning can be made easy if the investor go for portfolios rather than investing in a single option.

The present stock market

conditions offer a good value buying opportunity for the investors. The culture of investing in developmental activities should be encouraged and portfolio managers have to extend a helping hand to the investors.

References Sudip Bandopadhyay “Markets wait for end to Fall sell off” Economic times 14-9-2008. Anish M.Wig “Why should you statt financial Planning for 2009 Now”/ Economic Times 19-92008. Jayanth Manglik “Why portfolio diversification is a time tested virtue” Economic Times 7-122008. Managing Turbulence Financial Express 21-9-2008. Punithavathy Pandian “Security Analysis & Portfolio Management Vikas publicationw 2007. Prasanna Chandra Investment Analysis and P ortfolio Management Tata Mcgrawel 2005.

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