Petroleum Update For Distribution
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2008/09 Oil Consumption Drop Off Peak Historic Levels
Percent
3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% -7.00% -8.00% -9.00% -10.00% -11.00% -12.00% -13.00% -14.00% -15.00% -16.00% 08 Jan
08 Feb
08 Mar
08 Apr
08 May
08 Jun
08 Jul
08 Aug
08 Sep
08 Oct
08 Nov
08 Dec
09 Jan
09 Feb
09 Mar
09 Apr
09 May
09 Jun
09 Jul
Month
Year
Weekly Levels To Peak Week Data 2009 -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% -7.00% -8.00% -9.00% -10.00% -11.00% -12.00% -13.00% -14.00% -15.00% -16.00% -17.00% -18.00%
Jul W ee k 3
-19.00% -20.00%
2009 YTD
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Percent
Historic Growth Levels Off Peak Data 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -8.0% -9.0% -10.0% -11.0% -12.0%
Ja n W ee k 1 Fe b W ee k 1 Fe b W ee k 5 Ma r W ee k 4 Ap r W ee k 4 Ma y W ee k 4 Ju n W ee k 3
Off Peak Demand 08 Jan 2.83% 08 Feb -5.30% 08 Mar -3.30% 08 Apr -0.96% 08 May -2.79% 08 Jun -2.47% 08 Jul -4.00% 08 Aug -4.57% 08 Sep -7.94% 08 Oct -11.00% 08 Nov -8.17% 08 Dec -6.21% 09 Jan -6.68% 09 Feb -9.21% 09 Mar -10.06% 09 Apr -11.76% 09 May -13.48% 09 Jun -11.58% 09 Jul -10.73% Historic Annual Levels 2.99% 1993 1.87% 1994 0.35% 1995 2.22% 1996 2.71% 1997 0.98% 1998 2.44% 1999 2.17% 2000 2001 -0.10% 2002 -0.09% 2.04% 2003 1.91% 2004 1.60% 2005 0.61% 2006 0.54% 2007 -4.16% 2008 2009 YTD -10.53% Verify Formula On Analysis 06 07 08 Sheet! Weekly Levels YTD -6.82% Jan Week 1 -8.94% Jan Week 2 -7.96% Jan Week 3 -3.05% Jan Week 4 -6.15% Feb Week 1 -9.87% Feb Week 2 -10.65% Feb Week 3 -11.36% Feb Week 4 -7.97% Feb Week 5 -10.05% Mar Week 1 -11.98% Mar Week 2 -7.77% Mar Week 3 -10.39% Mar Week 4 -9.39% Apr Week 1 -12.42% Apr Week 2 -13.84% Apr Week 3 -11.38% Apr Week 4 -15.00% May Week 1 -13.29% May Week 2 -12.27% May Week 3 -12.66% May Week 4 -15.70% May Week 5 -11.10% Jun Week 1 -9.57% Jun Week 2 -15.05% Jun Week 3 -12.99% Jun Week 4 -12.22% Jul Week 1 -10.29% Jul Week 2 -9.94% Jul Week 3 -11.37% Jul Week 4
Percent
2008/09 Gasoline Consumption Drop Off Peak Historic Levels 0.00% -0.25% -0.50% -0.75% -1.00% -1.25% -1.50% -1.75% -2.00% -2.25% -2.50% -2.75% -3.00% -3.25% -3.50% -3.75% -4.00% -4.25% -4.50% -4.75% -5.00% -5.25% -5.50% -5.75% -6.00% 08 Jan
08 Feb
08 Mar
08 Apr
08 May
08 Jun
08 Jul
08 Aug
08 Sep
08 Oct
08 Nov
08 Dec
09 Jan
09 Feb
09 Mar
09 Apr
09 May
09 Jun
09 Jul
Month
Historic Gasoline Growth Levels Off Peak Data
Percent
3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0%
Year
Weekly Gasoline Levels To Peak Week Data 2009 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% -2.00% -2.50% -3.00% -3.50% -4.00% -4.50% -5.00% -5.50% Ju n W ee k3 Jul W ee k2
Ma y W ee k4
Ap r W ee k4
Ma r W ee k4
Fe b W ee k5
Fe b W ee k1
-6.00%
2009 YTD
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
-1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0%
Ja n W ee k1
Off Peak Demand 08 Jan -0.10% 08 Feb -1.16% 08 Mar -1.32% 08 Apr -0.31% 08 May -1.37% 08 Jun -2.24% 08 Jul -3.16% 08 Aug -1.92% 08 Sep -4.13% 08 Oct -4.28% 08 Nov -3.55% 08 Dec -4.66% 09 Jan -3.63% 09 Feb -1.23% 09 Mar -2.66% 09 Apr -2.39% 09 May -3.26% 09 Jun -4.01% 09 Jul -4.92% Historic Annual Levels 2.67% 1993 1.79% 1994 3.28% 1995 -0.10% 1996 2.35% 1997 2.86% 1998 2.09% 1999 0.49% 2000 1.28% 2001 2.59% 2002 1.30% 2003 2.08% 2004 0.87% 2005 1.43% 2006 0.77% 2007 -2.12% 2008 2009 YTD -2.93% Verify Formula On Analysis 06 07 08 Sheet! Weekly Levels YTD -3.37% Jan Week 1 -3.93% Jan Week 2 -3.60% Jan Week 3 -3.24% Jan Week 4 -1.32% Feb Week 1 -0.61% Feb Week 2 -3.15% Feb Week 3 -1.22% Feb Week 4 0.14% Feb Week 5 -2.03% Mar Week 1 -3.08% Mar Week 2 -1.62% Mar Week 3 -3.86% Mar Week 4 -4.73% Apr Week 1 -3.28% Apr Week 2 -0.29% Apr Week 3 -1.18% Apr Week 4 -4.53% May Week 1 -4.46% May Week 2 0.42% May Week 3 1.15% May Week 4 -5.00% May Week 5 -3.65% Jun Week 1 -2.47% Jun Week 2 -4.66% Jun Week 3 -5.27% Jun Week 4 -4.49% Jul Week 1 -5.63% Jul Week 2 -4.47% Jul Week 3 -5.08% Jul Week 4
Percent
3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% -7.00% -8.00% -9.00% -10.00% -11.00% -12.00% -13.00% -14.00% -15.00% -16.00% 08 Jan
08 Feb
08 Mar
08 Apr
08 May
08 Jun
08 Jul
08 Aug
08 Sep
08 Oct
08 Nov
08 Dec
09 Jan
09 Feb
09 Mar
09 Apr
09 May
09 Jun
09 Jul
Month
Year
Weekly Levels To Peak Week Data 2009 -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% -7.00% -8.00% -9.00% -10.00% -11.00% -12.00% -13.00% -14.00% -15.00% -16.00% -17.00% -18.00%
Jul W ee k 3
-19.00% -20.00%
2009 YTD
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Percent
Historic Growth Levels Off Peak Data 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -8.0% -9.0% -10.0% -11.0% -12.0%
Ja n W ee k 1 Fe b W ee k 1 Fe b W ee k 5 Ma r W ee k 4 Ap r W ee k 4 Ma y W ee k 4 Ju n W ee k 3
Off Peak Demand 08 Jan 2.83% 08 Feb -5.30% 08 Mar -3.30% 08 Apr -0.96% 08 May -2.79% 08 Jun -2.47% 08 Jul -4.00% 08 Aug -4.57% 08 Sep -7.94% 08 Oct -11.00% 08 Nov -8.17% 08 Dec -6.21% 09 Jan -6.68% 09 Feb -9.21% 09 Mar -10.06% 09 Apr -11.76% 09 May -13.48% 09 Jun -11.58% 09 Jul -10.73% Historic Annual Levels 2.99% 1993 1.87% 1994 0.35% 1995 2.22% 1996 2.71% 1997 0.98% 1998 2.44% 1999 2.17% 2000 2001 -0.10% 2002 -0.09% 2.04% 2003 1.91% 2004 1.60% 2005 0.61% 2006 0.54% 2007 -4.16% 2008 2009 YTD -10.53% Verify Formula On Analysis 06 07 08 Sheet! Weekly Levels YTD -6.82% Jan Week 1 -8.94% Jan Week 2 -7.96% Jan Week 3 -3.05% Jan Week 4 -6.15% Feb Week 1 -9.87% Feb Week 2 -10.65% Feb Week 3 -11.36% Feb Week 4 -7.97% Feb Week 5 -10.05% Mar Week 1 -11.98% Mar Week 2 -7.77% Mar Week 3 -10.39% Mar Week 4 -9.39% Apr Week 1 -12.42% Apr Week 2 -13.84% Apr Week 3 -11.38% Apr Week 4 -15.00% May Week 1 -13.29% May Week 2 -12.27% May Week 3 -12.66% May Week 4 -15.70% May Week 5 -11.10% Jun Week 1 -9.57% Jun Week 2 -15.05% Jun Week 3 -12.99% Jun Week 4 -12.22% Jul Week 1 -10.29% Jul Week 2 -9.94% Jul Week 3 -11.37% Jul Week 4
Percent
2008/09 Gasoline Consumption Drop Off Peak Historic Levels 0.00% -0.25% -0.50% -0.75% -1.00% -1.25% -1.50% -1.75% -2.00% -2.25% -2.50% -2.75% -3.00% -3.25% -3.50% -3.75% -4.00% -4.25% -4.50% -4.75% -5.00% -5.25% -5.50% -5.75% -6.00% 08 Jan
08 Feb
08 Mar
08 Apr
08 May
08 Jun
08 Jul
08 Aug
08 Sep
08 Oct
08 Nov
08 Dec
09 Jan
09 Feb
09 Mar
09 Apr
09 May
09 Jun
09 Jul
Month
Historic Gasoline Growth Levels Off Peak Data
Percent
3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0%
Year
Weekly Gasoline Levels To Peak Week Data 2009 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% -2.00% -2.50% -3.00% -3.50% -4.00% -4.50% -5.00% -5.50% Ju n W ee k3 Jul W ee k2
Ma y W ee k4
Ap r W ee k4
Ma r W ee k4
Fe b W ee k5
Fe b W ee k1
-6.00%
2009 YTD
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
-1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0%
Ja n W ee k1
Off Peak Demand 08 Jan -0.10% 08 Feb -1.16% 08 Mar -1.32% 08 Apr -0.31% 08 May -1.37% 08 Jun -2.24% 08 Jul -3.16% 08 Aug -1.92% 08 Sep -4.13% 08 Oct -4.28% 08 Nov -3.55% 08 Dec -4.66% 09 Jan -3.63% 09 Feb -1.23% 09 Mar -2.66% 09 Apr -2.39% 09 May -3.26% 09 Jun -4.01% 09 Jul -4.92% Historic Annual Levels 2.67% 1993 1.79% 1994 3.28% 1995 -0.10% 1996 2.35% 1997 2.86% 1998 2.09% 1999 0.49% 2000 1.28% 2001 2.59% 2002 1.30% 2003 2.08% 2004 0.87% 2005 1.43% 2006 0.77% 2007 -2.12% 2008 2009 YTD -2.93% Verify Formula On Analysis 06 07 08 Sheet! Weekly Levels YTD -3.37% Jan Week 1 -3.93% Jan Week 2 -3.60% Jan Week 3 -3.24% Jan Week 4 -1.32% Feb Week 1 -0.61% Feb Week 2 -3.15% Feb Week 3 -1.22% Feb Week 4 0.14% Feb Week 5 -2.03% Mar Week 1 -3.08% Mar Week 2 -1.62% Mar Week 3 -3.86% Mar Week 4 -4.73% Apr Week 1 -3.28% Apr Week 2 -0.29% Apr Week 3 -1.18% Apr Week 4 -4.53% May Week 1 -4.46% May Week 2 0.42% May Week 3 1.15% May Week 4 -5.00% May Week 5 -3.65% Jun Week 1 -2.47% Jun Week 2 -4.66% Jun Week 3 -5.27% Jun Week 4 -4.49% Jul Week 1 -5.63% Jul Week 2 -4.47% Jul Week 3 -5.08% Jul Week 4
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