Petroleum Update For Distribution
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Off Peak Demand
2.83% -5.30% -3.30% -0.96% -2.79% -2.47% -4.00% -4.57% -7.94% -11.00% -8.17% -6.21% -6.68% -9.21% -10.06% -11.76% -13.48% -11.58% -10.73% -9.21% -8.03% -12.30%
Petroleum Off-Peak Demand 08 Jan …. 08 Feb …. 08 Mar …. 08 Apr …. 08 May …. 08 Jun …. 08 Jul …. 08 Aug …. 08 Sep …. 08 Oct …. 08 Nov …. 08 Dec …. 09 Jan …. 09 Feb …. 09 Mar …. 09 Apr …. 09 May …. 09 Jun …. 09 Jul …. 09 Aug …. 09 Sep …. 09 Oct ….
2008/09 Oil Consumption Drop Off Peak Historic Levels 0.05
0
-0.05
Percent
08 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 09 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct
-0.1
-0.15
Historic Annual Levels -0.2
2.99% 1.87% 0.35% 2.22% 2.71% 0.98% 2.44% 2.17%
-0.25 08 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun
-0.10% -0.09%
Historic Growth Levels Off Peak Data
0.0% -2.0%
-10.33%
-4.0%
06 07 08 Sheet!
-6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0%
2009 YTD
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1993
1994
-14.0%
Year
Weekly Levels To Peak Week Data 2009
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
Oct Week 4
Oct Week 3
Oct Week 2
Oct Week 1
Sep Week 4
Sep Week 3
Sep Week 2
Sep Week 1
Aug Week 5
Aug Week 4
Aug Week 3
Aug Week 2
Aug Week 1
Jul Week 4
Jul Week 3
Jul Week 2
Jul Week 1
Jun Week 4
Jun Week 3
Jun Week 2
Jun Week 1
May Week 5
May Week 4
May Week 3
May Week 2
Apr Week 4
Apr Week 3
May Week 1
Apr Week 2
Apr Week 1
Mar Week 4
Mar Week 3
Mar Week 2
Feb Week 5
Mar Week 1
Feb Week 4
Feb Week 3
Feb Week 2
Jan Week 4
Jan Week 3
-0.25
Feb Week 1
-6.82% -8.94% -7.96% -3.05% -6.15% -9.87% -10.65% -11.36% -7.97% -10.05% -11.98% -7.77% -10.39% -9.39% -12.42% -13.84% -11.38% -15.00% -13.29% -12.27% -12.66% -15.70% -11.10% -9.57% -15.05% -12.99% -12.22% -10.29% -9.94% -11.37% -9.38% -11.53% -10.14% -8.55% -7.98% -6.83% -7.98% -10.77% -8.39% -10.53% -11.68% -13.18% -13.78%
Jan Week 2
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct
2.0%
Percent
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 09 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun
4.0%
2.04% 1.91% 1.60% 0.61% 0.54% -4.16%
Weekly Levels YTD
Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct
08 Jul
Month
Jan Week 1
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD Verify Formula On Analysis
….
…. 2.8% …. -5.3% …. -3.3% …. -1.0% …. -2.8% …. -2.5% …. -4.0% …. -4.6% …. -7.9% …. -11.0% …. -8.2% …. -6.2% …. -6.7% …. -9.2% …. -10.1% …. -11.8% …. -13.5% …. -11.6% …. -10.7% …. -9.2% …. -8.0% …. -12.3% ….
Gasoline Off-Peak Demand 08 Jan …. -0.1% 08 Feb …. -1.2% 08 Mar …. -1.3% 08 Apr …. -0.3% 08 May …. -1.4% 08 Jun …. -2.2% 08 Jul …. -3.2% 08 Aug …. -1.9% 08 Sep …. -4.1% 08 Oct …. -4.3% 08 Nov …. -3.5% 08 Dec …. -4.7% 09 Jan …. -3.6% 09 Feb …. -1.2% 09 Mar …. -2.7% 09 Apr …. -2.4% 09 May …. -3.3% 09 Jun …. -4.0% 09 Jul …. -4.9% 09 Aug …. -4.4% 09 Sep …. -2.1% 09 Oct …. -3.2%
Off Peak Demand
2008/09 Gasoline Consumption Drop Off Peak Historic Levels
-0.10% -1.16% -1.32% -0.31% -1.37% -2.24% -3.16% -1.92% -4.13% -4.28% -3.55% -4.66% -3.63% -1.23% -2.66% -2.39% -3.26% -4.01% -4.92% -4.36% -2.15% -3.24%
-0.05
-0.1
Percent -0.15
09 Sep 09 Oct Historic Annual Levels
-0.2
2.67% 1.79% 3.28% -0.10% 2.35% 2.86% 2.09% 0.49% 1.28% 2.59% 1.30% 2.08% 0.87% 1.43% 0.77% -2.12%
-0.25 08 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun
Historic Gasoline Growth Levels Off Peak Data 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%
-3.17%
06 07 08 Sheet!
-4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0%
2009 YTD
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
-14.0%
1993
Year
Weekly Gasoline Levels To Peak Week Data 2009 0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
Oct Week 4
Oct Week 3
Oct Week 2
Oct Week 1
Sep Week 4
Sep Week 3
Sep Week 2
Sep Week 1
Aug Week 5
Aug Week 4
Aug Week 3
Aug Week 2
Jul Week 4
Aug Week 1
Jul Week 3
Jul Week 2
Jul Week 1
Jun Week 4
Jun Week 3
Jun Week 2
Jun Week 1
May Week 5
May Week 4
May Week 3
May Week 2
May Week 1
Apr Week 4
Apr Week 3
Apr Week 2
Apr Week 1
Mar Week 4
Mar Week 3
Mar Week 2
Mar Week 1
Feb Week 5
Feb Week 4
Feb Week 3
Feb Week 2
-0.25
Feb Week 1
-3.37% -3.93% -3.60% -3.24% -1.32% -0.61% -3.15% -1.22% 0.14% -2.03% -3.08% -1.62% -3.86% -4.73% -3.28% -0.29% -1.18% -4.53% -4.46% 0.42% 1.15% -5.00% -3.65% -2.47% -4.66% -6.14% -4.49% -5.63% -4.47% -5.08% -5.14% -6.49% -5.71% -5.41% -1.50% -1.17% -2.66% -5.35% 0.07% 0.29% -0.45% -5.90% -6.75%
Jan Week 4
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Jan Week 3
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
Jan Week 2
Weekly Levels YTD
Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct
08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 09 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct
Month
Percent
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD Verify Formula On Analysis
Jan Week 1
08 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 09 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug
Year 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Ratio Total 0.780 560 0.773 565 0.772 575 0.608 461 0.631 488 0.622 490 0.556 449 0.587 486 0.779 657 0.822 715 0.708 633 0.564 519 0.587 550 0.673 647 0.828 820 0.800 818 0.675 709 0.510 545 0.401 436 0.375 413 0.558 622 0.563 639 0.596 688 0.635 748 0.561 672 0.555 675 0.525 650 0.425 535 0.401 507 0.475 608 0.515 666 0.511 670 0.503 665 0.566 758 0.591 805 0.643 885 0.632 881 0.615 877 0.632 909 0.671 972 0.743 1,088
Housing Pct. Employme Change Y nt on Y 71,833 73,091 0.89% 74,455 1.77% 75,770 -19.83% 77,347 5.86% 78,737 0.41% 80,734 -8.37% 82,771 8.24% 84,382 35.19% 87,034 8.83% 89,429 -11.47% 91,949 -18.01% 93,774 5.97% 96,158 17.64% 99,008 26.74% 102,250 -0.24% 104,962 -13.33% 106,940 -23.13% 108,670 -20.00% 110,204 -5.28% 111,550 50.61% 113,544 2.73% 115,461 7.67% 117,834 8.72% 119,865 -10.16% 121,669 0.45% 123,869 -3.70% 125,840 -17.69% 126,346 -5.23% 128,105 19.92% 129,200 9.54% 131,056 0.60% 132,304 -0.75% 133,943 13.98% 136,297 6.20% 137,673 9.94% 139,368 -0.45% 142,583 -0.45% 143,734 3.65% 144,863 6.93% 146,510 11.93%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.816 0.859 0.695 0.507 0.314 0.261
1,203 1,283 1,052 776 485 402
147,401 149,320 151,428 153,124 154,287 154,006 Was 433 July
10.57% 6.65% -18.00% -26.24% -37.50% -17.11%
2.83% -5.30% -3.30% -0.96% -2.79% -2.47% -4.00% -4.57% -7.94% -11.00% -8.17% -6.21% -6.68% -9.21% -10.06% -11.76% -13.48% -11.58% -10.73% -9.21% -8.03% -12.30%
Petroleum Off-Peak Demand 08 Jan …. 08 Feb …. 08 Mar …. 08 Apr …. 08 May …. 08 Jun …. 08 Jul …. 08 Aug …. 08 Sep …. 08 Oct …. 08 Nov …. 08 Dec …. 09 Jan …. 09 Feb …. 09 Mar …. 09 Apr …. 09 May …. 09 Jun …. 09 Jul …. 09 Aug …. 09 Sep …. 09 Oct ….
2008/09 Oil Consumption Drop Off Peak Historic Levels 0.05
0
-0.05
Percent
08 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 09 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct
-0.1
-0.15
Historic Annual Levels -0.2
2.99% 1.87% 0.35% 2.22% 2.71% 0.98% 2.44% 2.17%
-0.25 08 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun
-0.10% -0.09%
Historic Growth Levels Off Peak Data
0.0% -2.0%
-10.33%
-4.0%
06 07 08 Sheet!
-6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0%
2009 YTD
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1993
1994
-14.0%
Year
Weekly Levels To Peak Week Data 2009
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
Oct Week 4
Oct Week 3
Oct Week 2
Oct Week 1
Sep Week 4
Sep Week 3
Sep Week 2
Sep Week 1
Aug Week 5
Aug Week 4
Aug Week 3
Aug Week 2
Aug Week 1
Jul Week 4
Jul Week 3
Jul Week 2
Jul Week 1
Jun Week 4
Jun Week 3
Jun Week 2
Jun Week 1
May Week 5
May Week 4
May Week 3
May Week 2
Apr Week 4
Apr Week 3
May Week 1
Apr Week 2
Apr Week 1
Mar Week 4
Mar Week 3
Mar Week 2
Feb Week 5
Mar Week 1
Feb Week 4
Feb Week 3
Feb Week 2
Jan Week 4
Jan Week 3
-0.25
Feb Week 1
-6.82% -8.94% -7.96% -3.05% -6.15% -9.87% -10.65% -11.36% -7.97% -10.05% -11.98% -7.77% -10.39% -9.39% -12.42% -13.84% -11.38% -15.00% -13.29% -12.27% -12.66% -15.70% -11.10% -9.57% -15.05% -12.99% -12.22% -10.29% -9.94% -11.37% -9.38% -11.53% -10.14% -8.55% -7.98% -6.83% -7.98% -10.77% -8.39% -10.53% -11.68% -13.18% -13.78%
Jan Week 2
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct
2.0%
Percent
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 09 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun
4.0%
2.04% 1.91% 1.60% 0.61% 0.54% -4.16%
Weekly Levels YTD
Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct
08 Jul
Month
Jan Week 1
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD Verify Formula On Analysis
….
…. 2.8% …. -5.3% …. -3.3% …. -1.0% …. -2.8% …. -2.5% …. -4.0% …. -4.6% …. -7.9% …. -11.0% …. -8.2% …. -6.2% …. -6.7% …. -9.2% …. -10.1% …. -11.8% …. -13.5% …. -11.6% …. -10.7% …. -9.2% …. -8.0% …. -12.3% ….
Gasoline Off-Peak Demand 08 Jan …. -0.1% 08 Feb …. -1.2% 08 Mar …. -1.3% 08 Apr …. -0.3% 08 May …. -1.4% 08 Jun …. -2.2% 08 Jul …. -3.2% 08 Aug …. -1.9% 08 Sep …. -4.1% 08 Oct …. -4.3% 08 Nov …. -3.5% 08 Dec …. -4.7% 09 Jan …. -3.6% 09 Feb …. -1.2% 09 Mar …. -2.7% 09 Apr …. -2.4% 09 May …. -3.3% 09 Jun …. -4.0% 09 Jul …. -4.9% 09 Aug …. -4.4% 09 Sep …. -2.1% 09 Oct …. -3.2%
Off Peak Demand
2008/09 Gasoline Consumption Drop Off Peak Historic Levels
-0.10% -1.16% -1.32% -0.31% -1.37% -2.24% -3.16% -1.92% -4.13% -4.28% -3.55% -4.66% -3.63% -1.23% -2.66% -2.39% -3.26% -4.01% -4.92% -4.36% -2.15% -3.24%
-0.05
-0.1
Percent -0.15
09 Sep 09 Oct Historic Annual Levels
-0.2
2.67% 1.79% 3.28% -0.10% 2.35% 2.86% 2.09% 0.49% 1.28% 2.59% 1.30% 2.08% 0.87% 1.43% 0.77% -2.12%
-0.25 08 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun
Historic Gasoline Growth Levels Off Peak Data 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%
-3.17%
06 07 08 Sheet!
-4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0%
2009 YTD
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
-14.0%
1993
Year
Weekly Gasoline Levels To Peak Week Data 2009 0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
Oct Week 4
Oct Week 3
Oct Week 2
Oct Week 1
Sep Week 4
Sep Week 3
Sep Week 2
Sep Week 1
Aug Week 5
Aug Week 4
Aug Week 3
Aug Week 2
Jul Week 4
Aug Week 1
Jul Week 3
Jul Week 2
Jul Week 1
Jun Week 4
Jun Week 3
Jun Week 2
Jun Week 1
May Week 5
May Week 4
May Week 3
May Week 2
May Week 1
Apr Week 4
Apr Week 3
Apr Week 2
Apr Week 1
Mar Week 4
Mar Week 3
Mar Week 2
Mar Week 1
Feb Week 5
Feb Week 4
Feb Week 3
Feb Week 2
-0.25
Feb Week 1
-3.37% -3.93% -3.60% -3.24% -1.32% -0.61% -3.15% -1.22% 0.14% -2.03% -3.08% -1.62% -3.86% -4.73% -3.28% -0.29% -1.18% -4.53% -4.46% 0.42% 1.15% -5.00% -3.65% -2.47% -4.66% -6.14% -4.49% -5.63% -4.47% -5.08% -5.14% -6.49% -5.71% -5.41% -1.50% -1.17% -2.66% -5.35% 0.07% 0.29% -0.45% -5.90% -6.75%
Jan Week 4
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Jan Week 3
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
Jan Week 2
Weekly Levels YTD
Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct
08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 09 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct
Month
Percent
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD Verify Formula On Analysis
Jan Week 1
08 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 09 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug
Year 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Ratio Total 0.780 560 0.773 565 0.772 575 0.608 461 0.631 488 0.622 490 0.556 449 0.587 486 0.779 657 0.822 715 0.708 633 0.564 519 0.587 550 0.673 647 0.828 820 0.800 818 0.675 709 0.510 545 0.401 436 0.375 413 0.558 622 0.563 639 0.596 688 0.635 748 0.561 672 0.555 675 0.525 650 0.425 535 0.401 507 0.475 608 0.515 666 0.511 670 0.503 665 0.566 758 0.591 805 0.643 885 0.632 881 0.615 877 0.632 909 0.671 972 0.743 1,088
Housing Pct. Employme Change Y nt on Y 71,833 73,091 0.89% 74,455 1.77% 75,770 -19.83% 77,347 5.86% 78,737 0.41% 80,734 -8.37% 82,771 8.24% 84,382 35.19% 87,034 8.83% 89,429 -11.47% 91,949 -18.01% 93,774 5.97% 96,158 17.64% 99,008 26.74% 102,250 -0.24% 104,962 -13.33% 106,940 -23.13% 108,670 -20.00% 110,204 -5.28% 111,550 50.61% 113,544 2.73% 115,461 7.67% 117,834 8.72% 119,865 -10.16% 121,669 0.45% 123,869 -3.70% 125,840 -17.69% 126,346 -5.23% 128,105 19.92% 129,200 9.54% 131,056 0.60% 132,304 -0.75% 133,943 13.98% 136,297 6.20% 137,673 9.94% 139,368 -0.45% 142,583 -0.45% 143,734 3.65% 144,863 6.93% 146,510 11.93%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.816 0.859 0.695 0.507 0.314 0.261
1,203 1,283 1,052 776 485 402
147,401 149,320 151,428 153,124 154,287 154,006 Was 433 July
10.57% 6.65% -18.00% -26.24% -37.50% -17.11%
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