Perak Crisis Poll - Survey Findings (english)
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MEDIA RELEASE
PERAK STATE OPINION SURVEY
SURVEY FINDINGS 8 February 2009
PERAK POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
1
MEDIA RELEASE
Perak State Opinion Survey 6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
“All rights reserved. No parts of this publication may be distributed, reproduced, copied or transmitted in any form or by any means including photocopying without the permission of Merdeka Center application for which should be addressed to the same. The distribution, reproduction, copying or transmission including the quotation of a part of the whole thereof by a non-customer is strictly prohibited”
MERDEKA CENTER
2
MEDIA RELEASE
Perak State Opinion Survey 6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Methodology
•
Survey based on interviews of 507 respondents comprising registered voters aged 21+ via telephone across the state of Perak
•
Respondents comprised 47% Malays, 41% Chinese and 12% Indians in conformance with the 2008 Electoral Roll. This differs from the state population proportions of 54% Malay, 31% Chinese, 15% Indian and others.
•
Respondent selection based on random stratified sampling according to parliamentary district, ethnicity and gender
•
Poll was carried out between 6-8th February 2009
•
Margin of error for this survey is estimated at ±4.50% for the overall sample
MERDEKA CENTER
3
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Respondent Profile Ethnicity Malay
Gender Chinese 42%
Indian
Setting
Male
Urban
Female
Rural
50%
12%
50%
50%
50%
46%
State assembly 10%
4%
4%
2%
2%
4%
3%
4%
4%
3%
4%
Telok Intan
3%
4%
Pasir Salak
4%
5%
4%
6%
6%
Tapah
5%
5%
6%
Bagan Datok
7%
6%
5%
2%
MERDEKA CENTER
Tanjong Malim
Lumut
Gopeng
Kampar
Parit
Beruas
Kuala Kangsar
Batu Gajah
Ipoh Barat
Ipoh Timur
Tambun
Sungai Siput
Padang Rengas
Taiping
Bukit Gantang
Bagan Serai
Parit Buntar
Larut
Lenggong
Gerik
0%
4
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Respondent Profile Occupation
40% 30% 30% 20%
19%
19% 12%
10%
12% 4%
2%
1%
0% Private sector
Civil service
Business owner
SelfUnemployed, employed looking for work
Total monthly household income
Student
Homemaker
Retiree
Age 40%
50% 40%
30%
40%
30%
12%
10%
9%
14% 5%
0% < RM1,500
RM1,501 – RM3,000
MERDEKA CENTER
RM3,001 – > RM5,000 RM5,000
Don't know No response
10%
27% 20%
19%
20%
21%
20%
25%
10%
0% 21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61 and above
5
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Survey Findings
MERDEKA CENTER
6
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Acceptance of ADUN leaving party How strongly do you accept or not accept state governments formed through defections of state assemblypersons (ADUN)? 50% 40% 30% 20%
41%
10%
13%
16%
25%
0% Strongly accept
MERDEKA CENTER
Somewhat accept
Somewhat don't Do not accept at accept all
3%
1%
Don't know
No response
7
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Acceptance of ADUN leaving party (across races) How strongly do you accept or not accept state governments formed through defections of state assemblypersons (ADUN)?
Strongly accept Do not accept at all 100% 90% 80% 70%
Somewhat accept Don't know
Somewhat don't accept No response
1% 3%
1% 6%
1%
41%
31%
45% 68%
60%
16%
50% 40%
25% 21%
30% 20% 10% 0%
16% 13% Total (n=507)
MERDEKA CENTER
42%
25% Malay (n=236)
5% 20%
9% 2%
7%
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60) 8
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Support towards dissolution of the state assembly In your view, should the Perak State Assembly (DUN) be dissolved to pave the way for fresh elections? 60% 50% 40% 30%
52% 20% 10%
22%
16% 6%
0% Strongly yes
MERDEKA CENTER
Somewhat yes
Somewhat no
4% Strongly no
Don't know
1% No response
9
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Support towards dissolution of the state assembly (across races) In your view, should Perak State Assembly (DUN) be dissolved to pave the way for fresh elections?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60%
Strongly yes
Somewhat yes
Somewhat no
Strongly no
Don't know
No response
1% 4% 16%
1% 6%
6%
28%
3% 4% 8%
18% 31%
22%
6% 14%
50% 40% 30% 20%
8% 3%
70% 52%
45%
Total (n=507)
Malay (n=236)
54%
10% 0% MERDEKA CENTER
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60) 10
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Support towards dissolution of state assembly (across age, gender and location) In your view, should Perak State Assembly (DUN) be dissolved to pave way for fresh elections? Yes 100% 90% 80%
No
Don't know
1% 4%
1% 4%
4%
6%
3%
2%
3%
22%
19%
24%
18%
20%
24%
24%
No response
8% 20%
3% 19%
5% 25%
1%
2% 8%
19% 30%
70% 60%
30%
74%
76%
71%
76%
21-30 (n=51)
40%
Female (n=256)
50%
77%
72%
73%
72%
77%
70%
78% 60%
20% 10%
MERDEKA CENTER
Civil service (n=63)
Private sector (n=95)
Rural (n=253)
Urban (n=254)
61 and above (n=99)
51-60 (n=137)
41-50 (n=127)
31-40 (n=94)
Male (n=251)
Total (n=507)
0%
11
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Who decides? Among the following, who is most rightful in deciding who should form government in Perak? 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%
76%
30% 20% 10%
21%
0% T he people through election
MERDEKA CENTER
T he royalty
3%
1%
Don't know
No response
12
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Who decides? (across races) Among the following, who is most rightful in deciding who should form government in Perak? The people through election The royalty Don't know 100% 90% 80%
3%
No response
1%
21%
5% 7%
2%
38%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
88%
98%
76% 60%
20% 10% 0%
Total (n=507) MERDEKA CENTER
Malay (n=236)
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60) 13
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Views on the role of the Palace in current crisis To what extent do you think the role of the Palace in this issue reflect or does not reflect the will of the people of Perak? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
62%
20%
29%
10%
9%
0% Yes (Reflects the will of the people)
MERDEKA CENTER
No (Doesn't reflect people's will)
Don't know
0.4% No response
14
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Views on the role of the Palace in current crisis (across races) To what extent do you think the role of the Palace in this issue reflect or does not reflect the will of the people of Perak? Yes (Reflects the will of the people) Don't know 100% 90%
9%
8%
No (Doesn't reflect people's will) No response
9%
2% 17%
82%
68%
9%
13%
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60)
80% 70% 60%
42% 62%
50% 40% 30%
50%
20% 10%
29%
0%
Total (n=507) MERDEKA CENTER
Malay (n=236)
15
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Views on the role of the Palace in current crisis (across age groups, gender and location) To what extent do you think the role of the Palace in this issue reflect or does not reflect the will of the Perak people ?
100% 90%
9%
6%
Yes (Reflects the will of the people) Don't know
No (Doesn't reflect people's will) No response
1% 12%
7%
8%
9%
1% 11%
1% 12%
9%
9%
1% 4%
3%
80%
Female (n=256)
24%
28%
27%
50%
61%
64%
60%
26%
27%
30%
Rural (n=253)
32%
61%
Urban (n=254)
25%
64%
61 and above (n=99)
29%
69%
41-50 (n=127)
55%
31-40 (n=94)
68%
59%
59%
21-30 (n=51)
62%
Male (n=251)
60%
Total (n=507)
70%
73%
40% 30% 20% 10%
35%
38% 22%
MERDEKA CENTER
Civil service (n=63)
Private sector (n=95)
51-60 (n=137)
0%
16
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Impact of the crisis on Pakatan Rakyat In your view, will the crisis in Perak increase or decrease support of the people for the following institutions? Pakatan Rakyat (PR)
100%
Increase a lot
Increase a little
Decrease a little
Decrease a lot
Don't know
No response
2% 13%
80%
13%
60%
15%
3% 14%
2% 14% 1% 8%
5% 3% 22%
26% 20% 43% 40%
28%
20% 17%
50%
20%
28%
19%
32%
Malay (n=236)
Chinese (n=211)
0% Total (n=507)
Indian (n=60)
Pakatan Rakyat (PR) MERDEKA CENTER
17
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Impact of the crisis on Barisan Nasional In your view, will the crisis in Perak increase or decrease support of the people for the following institutions? Barisan Nasional (BN)
100%
Increase a lot
Increase a little
Decrease a little
Decrease a lot
Don't know
No response
1% 12%
80%
1% 12%
2% 14%
16% 27%
38% 36%
60%
23%
40%
31%
20%
15%
27%
23% 41%
17%
25% 0%
8%
13% Total (n=507)
Malay (n=236)
6% 1%
10%
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60)
Barisan Nasional (BN) MERDEKA CENTER
18
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Impact of the crisis on democracy In your view, will the crisis in Perak increase or decrease support of the people for the following institutions? Democracy in Malaysia
100%
Increase a lot
Increase a little
Decrease a little
Decrease a lot
Don't know
No response
3% 17%
80%
1% 12%
5%
9%
24%
18%
25% 30%
60%
2% 15%
25%
5%
29% 40%
23% 31%
20%
34%
22% 30%
0%
12%
17%
11%
T otal (n=507)
Malay (n=236)
Chinese (n=211) 1%
Indian (n=60)
Democracy in Malaysia MERDEKA CENTER
19
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Views on solutions In your view, which of the following is the best solution to the current Perak crisis?
50% 40% 30% 20%
33%
35%
10%
28%
0% Call for fresh polls
MERDEKA CENTER
Hold 3 by-elections at areas where the ADUNs defected
Accept the new BN state government
3%
1%
Others
Don't know
20
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Views on solutions (across races) In your view, which of the following is the best solution to the current Perak crisis?
100% 90% 80%
Don't know Others Accept the new BN state government Hold 3 by-elections at areas where the ADUNs defected Call for fresh polls for the entire state
1% 3%
1% 2%
28%
70%
51%
60% 50%
1% 4% 7%
44%
2% 5% 13%
37%
35%
40%
26%
30% 20% 10%
33%
44%
43%
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60)
20%
0%
Total (n=507) MERDEKA CENTER
Malay (n=236)
21
PERAK STATE OPINION SURVEY
SURVEY FINDINGS 8 February 2009
PERAK POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
1
MEDIA RELEASE
Perak State Opinion Survey 6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
“All rights reserved. No parts of this publication may be distributed, reproduced, copied or transmitted in any form or by any means including photocopying without the permission of Merdeka Center application for which should be addressed to the same. The distribution, reproduction, copying or transmission including the quotation of a part of the whole thereof by a non-customer is strictly prohibited”
MERDEKA CENTER
2
MEDIA RELEASE
Perak State Opinion Survey 6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Methodology
•
Survey based on interviews of 507 respondents comprising registered voters aged 21+ via telephone across the state of Perak
•
Respondents comprised 47% Malays, 41% Chinese and 12% Indians in conformance with the 2008 Electoral Roll. This differs from the state population proportions of 54% Malay, 31% Chinese, 15% Indian and others.
•
Respondent selection based on random stratified sampling according to parliamentary district, ethnicity and gender
•
Poll was carried out between 6-8th February 2009
•
Margin of error for this survey is estimated at ±4.50% for the overall sample
MERDEKA CENTER
3
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Respondent Profile Ethnicity Malay
Gender Chinese 42%
Indian
Setting
Male
Urban
Female
Rural
50%
12%
50%
50%
50%
46%
State assembly 10%
4%
4%
2%
2%
4%
3%
4%
4%
3%
4%
Telok Intan
3%
4%
Pasir Salak
4%
5%
4%
6%
6%
Tapah
5%
5%
6%
Bagan Datok
7%
6%
5%
2%
MERDEKA CENTER
Tanjong Malim
Lumut
Gopeng
Kampar
Parit
Beruas
Kuala Kangsar
Batu Gajah
Ipoh Barat
Ipoh Timur
Tambun
Sungai Siput
Padang Rengas
Taiping
Bukit Gantang
Bagan Serai
Parit Buntar
Larut
Lenggong
Gerik
0%
4
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Respondent Profile Occupation
40% 30% 30% 20%
19%
19% 12%
10%
12% 4%
2%
1%
0% Private sector
Civil service
Business owner
SelfUnemployed, employed looking for work
Total monthly household income
Student
Homemaker
Retiree
Age 40%
50% 40%
30%
40%
30%
12%
10%
9%
14% 5%
0% < RM1,500
RM1,501 – RM3,000
MERDEKA CENTER
RM3,001 – > RM5,000 RM5,000
Don't know No response
10%
27% 20%
19%
20%
21%
20%
25%
10%
0% 21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61 and above
5
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Survey Findings
MERDEKA CENTER
6
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Acceptance of ADUN leaving party How strongly do you accept or not accept state governments formed through defections of state assemblypersons (ADUN)? 50% 40% 30% 20%
41%
10%
13%
16%
25%
0% Strongly accept
MERDEKA CENTER
Somewhat accept
Somewhat don't Do not accept at accept all
3%
1%
Don't know
No response
7
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Acceptance of ADUN leaving party (across races) How strongly do you accept or not accept state governments formed through defections of state assemblypersons (ADUN)?
Strongly accept Do not accept at all 100% 90% 80% 70%
Somewhat accept Don't know
Somewhat don't accept No response
1% 3%
1% 6%
1%
41%
31%
45% 68%
60%
16%
50% 40%
25% 21%
30% 20% 10% 0%
16% 13% Total (n=507)
MERDEKA CENTER
42%
25% Malay (n=236)
5% 20%
9% 2%
7%
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60) 8
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Support towards dissolution of the state assembly In your view, should the Perak State Assembly (DUN) be dissolved to pave the way for fresh elections? 60% 50% 40% 30%
52% 20% 10%
22%
16% 6%
0% Strongly yes
MERDEKA CENTER
Somewhat yes
Somewhat no
4% Strongly no
Don't know
1% No response
9
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Support towards dissolution of the state assembly (across races) In your view, should Perak State Assembly (DUN) be dissolved to pave the way for fresh elections?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60%
Strongly yes
Somewhat yes
Somewhat no
Strongly no
Don't know
No response
1% 4% 16%
1% 6%
6%
28%
3% 4% 8%
18% 31%
22%
6% 14%
50% 40% 30% 20%
8% 3%
70% 52%
45%
Total (n=507)
Malay (n=236)
54%
10% 0% MERDEKA CENTER
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60) 10
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Support towards dissolution of state assembly (across age, gender and location) In your view, should Perak State Assembly (DUN) be dissolved to pave way for fresh elections? Yes 100% 90% 80%
No
Don't know
1% 4%
1% 4%
4%
6%
3%
2%
3%
22%
19%
24%
18%
20%
24%
24%
No response
8% 20%
3% 19%
5% 25%
1%
2% 8%
19% 30%
70% 60%
30%
74%
76%
71%
76%
21-30 (n=51)
40%
Female (n=256)
50%
77%
72%
73%
72%
77%
70%
78% 60%
20% 10%
MERDEKA CENTER
Civil service (n=63)
Private sector (n=95)
Rural (n=253)
Urban (n=254)
61 and above (n=99)
51-60 (n=137)
41-50 (n=127)
31-40 (n=94)
Male (n=251)
Total (n=507)
0%
11
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Who decides? Among the following, who is most rightful in deciding who should form government in Perak? 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%
76%
30% 20% 10%
21%
0% T he people through election
MERDEKA CENTER
T he royalty
3%
1%
Don't know
No response
12
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Who decides? (across races) Among the following, who is most rightful in deciding who should form government in Perak? The people through election The royalty Don't know 100% 90% 80%
3%
No response
1%
21%
5% 7%
2%
38%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
88%
98%
76% 60%
20% 10% 0%
Total (n=507) MERDEKA CENTER
Malay (n=236)
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60) 13
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Views on the role of the Palace in current crisis To what extent do you think the role of the Palace in this issue reflect or does not reflect the will of the people of Perak? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
62%
20%
29%
10%
9%
0% Yes (Reflects the will of the people)
MERDEKA CENTER
No (Doesn't reflect people's will)
Don't know
0.4% No response
14
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Views on the role of the Palace in current crisis (across races) To what extent do you think the role of the Palace in this issue reflect or does not reflect the will of the people of Perak? Yes (Reflects the will of the people) Don't know 100% 90%
9%
8%
No (Doesn't reflect people's will) No response
9%
2% 17%
82%
68%
9%
13%
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60)
80% 70% 60%
42% 62%
50% 40% 30%
50%
20% 10%
29%
0%
Total (n=507) MERDEKA CENTER
Malay (n=236)
15
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Views on the role of the Palace in current crisis (across age groups, gender and location) To what extent do you think the role of the Palace in this issue reflect or does not reflect the will of the Perak people ?
100% 90%
9%
6%
Yes (Reflects the will of the people) Don't know
No (Doesn't reflect people's will) No response
1% 12%
7%
8%
9%
1% 11%
1% 12%
9%
9%
1% 4%
3%
80%
Female (n=256)
24%
28%
27%
50%
61%
64%
60%
26%
27%
30%
Rural (n=253)
32%
61%
Urban (n=254)
25%
64%
61 and above (n=99)
29%
69%
41-50 (n=127)
55%
31-40 (n=94)
68%
59%
59%
21-30 (n=51)
62%
Male (n=251)
60%
Total (n=507)
70%
73%
40% 30% 20% 10%
35%
38% 22%
MERDEKA CENTER
Civil service (n=63)
Private sector (n=95)
51-60 (n=137)
0%
16
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Impact of the crisis on Pakatan Rakyat In your view, will the crisis in Perak increase or decrease support of the people for the following institutions? Pakatan Rakyat (PR)
100%
Increase a lot
Increase a little
Decrease a little
Decrease a lot
Don't know
No response
2% 13%
80%
13%
60%
15%
3% 14%
2% 14% 1% 8%
5% 3% 22%
26% 20% 43% 40%
28%
20% 17%
50%
20%
28%
19%
32%
Malay (n=236)
Chinese (n=211)
0% Total (n=507)
Indian (n=60)
Pakatan Rakyat (PR) MERDEKA CENTER
17
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Impact of the crisis on Barisan Nasional In your view, will the crisis in Perak increase or decrease support of the people for the following institutions? Barisan Nasional (BN)
100%
Increase a lot
Increase a little
Decrease a little
Decrease a lot
Don't know
No response
1% 12%
80%
1% 12%
2% 14%
16% 27%
38% 36%
60%
23%
40%
31%
20%
15%
27%
23% 41%
17%
25% 0%
8%
13% Total (n=507)
Malay (n=236)
6% 1%
10%
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60)
Barisan Nasional (BN) MERDEKA CENTER
18
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Impact of the crisis on democracy In your view, will the crisis in Perak increase or decrease support of the people for the following institutions? Democracy in Malaysia
100%
Increase a lot
Increase a little
Decrease a little
Decrease a lot
Don't know
No response
3% 17%
80%
1% 12%
5%
9%
24%
18%
25% 30%
60%
2% 15%
25%
5%
29% 40%
23% 31%
20%
34%
22% 30%
0%
12%
17%
11%
T otal (n=507)
Malay (n=236)
Chinese (n=211) 1%
Indian (n=60)
Democracy in Malaysia MERDEKA CENTER
19
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Views on solutions In your view, which of the following is the best solution to the current Perak crisis?
50% 40% 30% 20%
33%
35%
10%
28%
0% Call for fresh polls
MERDEKA CENTER
Hold 3 by-elections at areas where the ADUNs defected
Accept the new BN state government
3%
1%
Others
Don't know
20
Perak State Opinion Survey
MEDIA RELEASE
6 – 8 February 2009, n = 507
Views on solutions (across races) In your view, which of the following is the best solution to the current Perak crisis?
100% 90% 80%
Don't know Others Accept the new BN state government Hold 3 by-elections at areas where the ADUNs defected Call for fresh polls for the entire state
1% 3%
1% 2%
28%
70%
51%
60% 50%
1% 4% 7%
44%
2% 5% 13%
37%
35%
40%
26%
30% 20% 10%
33%
44%
43%
Chinese (n=211)
Indian (n=60)
20%
0%
Total (n=507) MERDEKA CENTER
Malay (n=236)
21
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