Opportunities From Science And Technology 2

Plenary Panel Discussion Opportunities from Science & Technology Daniel M. Kammen Director, Berkeley Institute of the Environment Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy University of California, Berkeley

NCSE, Energy for a Sustainable and Secure Future, Washington, January 26, 2006 University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • DC http://rael.berkeley.edu

Solar Energy for Many Applications San Francisco, CA Moscone Center: 675,000 W Kammen home: 2400 W CA enacts ‘Million Solar Homes’ program (3,000 - 10,000 MW program

Key finding: Investment in solar energy research and deployment pays dividends for many applications and for businesses across scales.

Kenyan PV market: Average system: 18W Over 30,000 systems/year

University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu

32 28

Best Research­Cell Efficiencies Multijunction Concentrators

Efficiency (%)

▲NREL Energy

Single Crystal Multicrystalline Thin Si

•

Cu(In,Ga)Se2 Amorphous Si:H (stabilized) Westing­ CdTe

Boeing

•

Monosolar

Masushita

4 0 1975

Spire ARCO

RCA

•

• • Kodak

••

Univ.S. Florida

•

AMETEK

•• •

• Boeing

•

Georgia Tech UNSW NREL

NREL Euro­ CIS

Emerging PV

Organic Cells

1985

1990

• Astro­

NREL

••

NREL

Power

U. Konstanz

1980

NREL

NREL

United Solar

Photon Energy

Solarex

NREL

Cu(In,Ga)Se2 14x Concentration

▲Georgia Tech

Boeing AstroPower

Boeing University of Maine

Sharp

Varian

▲

UNSW UNSW

UNSW

UNSW

Stanford

house North Solarex Carolina Boeing State University ARCO Kodak

12

UNSW

▲ Spire

Thin Film Technologies

NREL/ Spectrolab

NREL

Crystalline Si Cells

16

8

▲ ▲ Japan

Three­junction (2­terminal, monolithic) ▼ Two­junction (2­terminal, monolithic) ▲

24 20

▼ ▼ Spectrolab ▼

1995

U.California Berkeley

Princeton  NREL

2000

University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu

Source: T. J. Berniard, NREL

U.S. WIND ENERGY CAPACITY: 9,149 MW as of Dec 31,

744

2005

186

836

407 1990

136 1.5 MW turbines In NM: cheaper than coal!

The Wind Turbine Revolution (at 4 - 7 ¢/kWh)

New 5 MW rotors

University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu

Farrell, Plevin, Turner, Jones, O’Hare & Kammen, “Ethanol can contribute to energy and environmental goals”, Science, January University http://rael.berkeley.edu/EBAMM of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu 27, 2006.

Ultimate Biorefinery Goal: From any Feedstock to any USES Product Fuels: Hydrolysis

Acids, enzymes

Sugars and Lignin

Gasification

Feedstock production, collection, handling & preparation

High heat, low oxygen Digestion

Synthesis Gas

Bio-gas

Bacteria Pyrolysis

Bio-Oil

Ethanol Renewable Diesel Hydrogen

Power:

Electricity Heat

Chemicals Plastics Solvents Chemical

Intermediates Phenolics Adhesives Furfural Extraction Carbon-Rich Fatty acids Chains Acetic Acid Mechanical, Carbon black chemical Paints Separation Plant Dyes, Pigments, Products Mechanical, and Inks chemical University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu Detergents Etc.

Catalysis, heat, pressure

Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards and Mandates – 21 States MN: 10% by 2015 for Xcel + >800 MW RE requirement

NV: 15% by 2013 IA: 105 aMW

NY – in development: NY: 2020 7.5%25% new by by 2013

ME: 30% by 2000

WI: 2.2% by 2011

RI: 16% by 2019

PA: varies by utility

MA: 4% new by 2009 CT: 10% by 2010

NJ: 6.5% by 2008 MD: 7.5% by 2019

11/2/04 CA: 20% by 2017 AZ: 1.1% by 2007 NM: 10% by 2011 HI: 20% by 2020

TX: 2880 MW by 2009

• Renewable energy “goals” established in Illinois and Minnesota • RPS being considered in many other states (e.g., VT, WA); potentially revised in others (ME, PA, WI); and national RPS is being discussed (by some…) University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu

A QUICK COMPARISON OF SEVERAL NEW AND EMERGING “GREEN” VEHICLES AS YOUR PRIMARY, URBAN CAR CONVENTIONAL VEHICLE (CV): e.g. Ford Focus, 30 mpg

HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (HEV): Toyota Prius, 52 mpg

PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (PHEV): “Prius Plus”, 80+ mpg And then, Plug-In Hybrid + cellulosic ethanol … PROTOTYPE ALL-ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV), 200+ mpg: FUEL-CELL, HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (FCHEV): Honda FCX (Gil Masters, Stanford Univ.)

University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu

If the USA followed CA Executive Order 3-05 3.0

(Governor Schwarzenegger, June 1, 2005)

U.S. GHG Emissions (GT C eq.)

2.5

Administration

2.0 1.5

Kyoto

1.0 0.5 0.0 1990

Actual emissions EIA reference case Administration target

BAU

California targets Kyoto target

CA

CCTP long term goal: "zero net emissions" 2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu

2050

If you think US public sector energy R&D funding is doing poorly … 8

 R&D (2002 $b)

6

Public energy R&D Private energy R&D

4 2 ­ 1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu

2005

Kammen & Nemet (2005)

For copies of papers, see:

Kammen and Nemet, 2005

University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu

Fuel Cells Are Looking Up $150

300

$125

Patents

Patents Ballard United Tech. Hydrogenics

250 200 150

$100 $75

PlugPower Fuel Cell Energy

100

$50

50

$25

0

$0 1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Stock price

Annual fuel cell patents

350

2005

Application year

University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://rael.berkeley.edu

Kammen & Nemet (2005)