On The Environment And The Social Impacts Of Climate Change
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ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE SOCIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AGHAM May 11, 2009 Davao City
OUTLINE Introduction Environmental Problems Climate Change Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
OUR ENVIRONMENT IS INTERLINKED
Man’s interaction with nature Resources for the production of his needs
Food, clothing, shelter
Tools, processes, technologies
Man’s interaction with man Relations with others Dominance of a segment of society over others
ADVANCES AND CHALLENGES
Great and exciting advances – e.g. Information technology, automation, genetics and medicine
one billion people are hungry 160 million more malnourished every day world wide: 70,000 persons join hungry and starving masses
Greatest challenges – Famine and hunger, rapid ecological destruction, breakdown of health systems, social decay and disintegration
ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
DEFORESTATION
Phil. forest reduced from 70% (1909) to 18.3% (1999)
Increased demand for cheap and plentiful wood in Europe, Japan and the US
¾ of world's commercial timber output is utilized by only ¼ of population
BRIEF HISTORY OF LOGGING IN THE COUNTRY Land area (km2)
Spanish colonization (270,000 km2 forest cover =90% of total land area)
300,000 250,000
American colonization (210,000 km2)
200,000
Nominal Philippine Independence (150,000 km2)
150,000 100,000
Post EDSA Revolution (8,000 km2)
50,000 0 1400
1500
1900
1950
1990
1900s
70%
1988
23%
2010
6%
MINING Philippine Mineral Reserves
Metallic COPPER4.8 COPPER4 B MT
13 metallic ores
7.1 B MT
29 non-metallic
51 B MT
Non-metallic
Philippine production
Gold (2nd) Copper (3rd)
marble
limestone
MINING
Mining for export
Large scale TNC plunder in mining is one of the main causes of environmental degradation in the country
Large scale plunder of the environment for larger profit
Mine spills, acid mine drainage, no clean up of mining activities
Mine tailings
Militarization occurs in mining areas
SHRINKING
LANDS FOR FOOD PRODUCTION
Agricultural production is in crisis. – Erratic production trends, heavily dependent on the serendipitous weather – From a rice exporter to a rice net importer – Shrinking agricultural lands – Philippine gross erosion rate is at 2,046 million metric tons per year – 5.2 million hectares of total land area are severely eroded – Recurrent drought has degraded semi-arid parts of food producing regions – An average of 2,227 has. of irrigated rice lands is converted to settlements and industrial uses annually = permanent loss of agricultural resources as of 1991 1991:: 11, 11,337 has. as of 2001 2001:: 600 600,,000 has.
Croplands are also threatened by industrial and chemical pollution, such as mine tailings spills
Compounding the problem is the continued shift to production of export crops using high yielding varieties (HYVs).
WATER Only 2.53 % of world water is freshwater Asia has less than 36% of the world's water resources Almost all developing countries are exposed to polluted water sources Mega-dams, privatization
WATER POLLUTION
Oil spills: Petron
Guimaras, Visayas more than 10,000 fishermen and their families
Rapu-rapu mine spill Drinking water
Costly, low pressure Privatized
DECLINING MARINE RESOURCES •
RP regarded as "Center of Marine
Biodiversity" in the world, surpassing the Great Barrier Reef of Australia. •
Around 2,500 fish species
•
Rich coral reefs, with 488 out of 800 known species worldwide
•
Longest discontinuous coastline worldwide
•
24 major fishing bays and gulfs, half of these have annual yield levels of 50 metric tons
The irony of bountiful seas •
Declining catch
•
Declining maximum sustainable yields
•
Degraded coral reefs •
Only 4% of coral reefs in good condition
•
Decreasing mangrove areas
•
Pollution
•
Overfishing • •
•
Monopoly control of fishery resources • •
•
90% fish stocks depleted in 50 years Large trawlers, purseiners, foreign fishing vessels poaching in Phil. waters
RA 8550 (Fisheries Code) RA 8435 (AFMA)
Open access policies •
Treaty of Commerce and Navigation with Japan, US, Australia, Canadaoverfishing by foreign firms
•
Privatization of municipal fisheries
•
Displacement – VFA, JPEPA
URBAN POLLUTION
Large-scale factories remain top contributors of pollutants
Underdeveloped countries become dumping grounds
Obsolete and dirty technologies imported in the Philippines
URBANIZATION POVERTY
AND
RURAL
Industrial development results in urbanization, which in turn creates problems like overcrowding and pollution and strains the environment.
But in the Philippines, “urbanization” happens not as a result of industrialization, rather as a result of rural poverty and lack of jobs as a whole.
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENDERS AT RISK
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENDERS AT RISK communities and individuals are actively opposing the presence of entities that promote the devastation of our ecosystems and the plunder of our national patrimony
human, civil, and political rights violations committed against environmental defenders are militarization, human rights violations and legal harassment.
Presence of military detachments and police
Lafayette Rapu-Rapu island, Albay Filminera in Masbate Marcopper in Marinduque TVI in Zamboanga del Norte Xstrata in South Cotabato, NMRDC in Mt. Diwalwal Rio Tuba in Palawan Crew Minerals in Mindoro Oriental Climax Arimco/Oxiana in Nueva Vizcaya, Abra, Batangas, Zambales, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur.
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENDERS AT RISK
Murder of envi defenders
From January 2001 to July 2007- 17 killed Recent : Boy Billianes, 2 IP Leaders in Mindanao
SLAPP (Strategic Lawsuits Agaisnt Public Participation)
ENVIRONMENTAL
CRISIS
The rapid destruction of the environment is a direct result of the
rapid, unchecked appropriation of the world's resources for the benefit of a few.
environment plunder
environmental destruction
CLIMATE CHANGE
WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?
IPCC…. any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity
Accelerated warming of surface due to human-related releases of greenhouses gases
ACCELERATED TEMPERATURE CHANGE 1900’s – hottest century 2005 and 1998 – hottest years; 1995 to 2006, (except 1996) = Top 12 hottest years since 1850
Increase in temperature in the last 50 years was 0.13 degrees centigrade/decade which is twice faster than the last 100 years of 0.6 degrees centigrade
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm.
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
Carbon Dioxide
CO2
CH4
NO2 SF6
H2O Water vapor
HFCs PFCs
Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate!
CO2 N2O CO2 N O CO2 HFCs 2 CO2 CH4 HFCsCH4 N O PFCs SF6CO2 2 4CH4 COCH 2 COCO 2 SF6CO2 2 CO2CO SF6 2
GREENHOUSE GASES • Carbon dioxide CO2 - second most
common GHG. makes up about 25% of the natural greenhouse effect. •occurs naturally through photosynthesis, volcanoes, forest fires. • Burning of oil and gas (for heat, transportation, industry), cement manufacturing, •deforestation and other land uses.
• Nitrous oxide N2O •Methane CH4 - third most
common GHG •Occurs naturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion. Occurs naturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion. • Oil and gas production, coal mining, landfills.
•Also occurs naturally. •Burning of oil, gas, coal, and wood, fertilizers, coal mining.
OTHERS: Water vapor, Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6, Perfluocarbons (PFCs), Hydroflurocarbons (HFCs )
HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Relationship between temperature and malaria parasite development time
Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission across the diverse topography of Zimbabwe, based on United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) global climate scenarios
Source: Patz, Jonathan A. and Olson, Sarah H. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 5635-5636
HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Heat stress
HIGH
Asthma Vector-borne diseases (e.g., malaria, dengue, filariasis) Water & food-borne diseases (e.g., diarrhea, cholera, typhoid, hepa, polio) Nutritional deficiencies Deaths, injuries, psychological disorders (due to social, economic, demographic disturbance)
LOW
Myocardial infarction Tuberculosis Arteriosclerosis most cancers sexually-transmitted diseases
HURRICANES/TYPHOONS (CATEGORY 4/5)
Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005
Changes in climate are already causing harm Major floods per decade, 1950-2000
Dry Season
PROBABLE IMPACTS
Reduced Stream flow
Insufficient Water for Irrigation
Total Crop Loss
Declining Groundwater Level
Limiting Water Supply for Domestic Needs
PROBABLE IMPACTS Rainy Season
Flooding of lowland areas
Increasing Flood Peaks
Silted Rivers
Excessive Runoff Landslides Severe Soil Erosion
COASTAL AND MARINE RESOURCES
The Philippines is richest in marine biodiversity and has the longest discontinuous coastline and one of the richest coral reefs in the world. But fish production is in crisis and fishing and breeding grounds are diminishing.
The poor will face the greatest challenges from climate change.
The rate has doubled this decade. 40 to 80% of the population in developing countries versus a few % in more developed countries
4,000
N umber affected (Millions)
2 billion people in developing countries affected by a climate related disaster in the 1990s.
3,000 Dev'ed CIT
2,000
Dev'ing LDC
1,000
-
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
– Impacts are worse
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change
– Lower capacity to adapt • Lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge
– Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries • Exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.
0 Pakistan
S. Arabia
Poland
S. Africa
Australia
France
Ukraine
Italy
Canada
Germany
India
EU25
USA
WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE?
Top GHG Emitters (2000)
25
20
15
10
5
WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE?
WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE? TNCs
UNITED STATES US is the number 1 producer of CO2 emissions. 25% of CO2 in the atmosphere per year comes from the US US number 1 producer and consumer of fossil fuels 79% of US CO2 emission comes from the use of petroleum and coal for energy and electricity
1998, 4 out of the 11 biggest producers of oil are TNCs (BP Amoco-Arco, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell at ChevronTexaco). 2005, oil TNCs like British Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Shell Dutch controls 18% of global oil reserves TNCs owns the biggest agricultural plantations, logging corporations, large dams, energy plants, etc...
GHGs in RP
1999, Philippines emitted 75,998,000 metric tons of CO2 or 0.3% of world total emission. From 1990 to 1999 our CO2 emission increased by 72%.
Currently we have a higher CO2 emission than some industrialized countries like Switzerland (0.1%), New Zealand (0.1%), Sweden (0.2%), Ireland (0.2%) and Norway (0.2%), and also to some oil producing countries (OPEC members) like Bahrain (0.1%), Libya (0.2%), Nigeria (0.2%) and Kuwait (0.2%)
WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE?
2004, Shell, Caltex, and Petron or the Big Three controls 83% of retailing stations, 86% of total oil products sold and 100% oil refinery in the country
Foreign TNCs also controls our energy industry like Mirant (US) (bought off by Marubeni of Japan) Enron Power Co. (US), Far East Livingston (Singapore)
2006, Petron reported a net profit of P6.05 billion while Shell reported in 2005 a net profit of P5.7 billion
7 out 9 coal power plants and all diesel-fired power plant in the country is owned by foreign and private companies
natural gas in Malampaya, Palawan, owns by Royal Dutch Shell (45%) and Texaco (45%).
ACTIONS AND RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE –Adaptation – any action including changes in practices and decision making processes in order to increase resilience and capacity to cope with current and future changes (IPCC, 2001) –Mitigation – the process of limiting the causes of climate change through measures that could slow down the build up of atmospheric GHGs concentrations by reducing current and future emissions and by increasing GHG sinks
SOME ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES –Conserve water –Use less energy –Recycle (the low carbon diet)
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Adaptation Strategy for Forestry & Agri.
Effect on Water Resources
Effects on Institutions
Effects on Local Communities
Proper scheduling and planting
+ More efficient water - Increase cost for use training, technical assistance , R & D
0
Soil and Water Conservation Measures
+ Conservation of Water
- Increase cost for training, technical assistance , R & D
- Cash expenses
Establishment of fire lines
+ More vegetative cover promote good vegetative cover
+ Less expense on fire fighting
-More labor demand + Less damage to crops from fire; more income
Controlled Burning
+ Less damage to watershed cover
0
0
Construction of Drainage Facillities
+ Better water quality (less sediment load)
- Increase cost of implementation
+ Less soil erosion; less flooding; greater yield
Source: Toward Developing Philippine Adaptation Framework , Paper presented by Rex Victor Cruz and Florencia B. Pulhin during the Executive Forum on Environmental Economics, June 25-29, 2007, SEARCA, UPLB.
MITIGATING MEASURES Mitigation technologies and practices for Agriculture and Forestry (IPCC, 2007)
SECTOR
Forestry
Agriculture
• • • • • •
Afforestation Reforestation Forest Management Reduction of Deforestation Harvested wood product management Use of forestry products for bio-energy to replace fossil fuel use
• Improved crop and grazing land management to increase soil carbon storage • Restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands • Improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock and manure management to reduce CH4 emissions • Improved nitrogen fertilizer application techniques to reduce N2O emission • Dedicated energy fuels crops to replace fuel use • Improved energy efficiency in agriculture • Composting of organic wastes • Controlled waste water treatment • Recycling and waste minimization
ACTIONS AND RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
GOVERNMENT RESPONSE: Formation of Presidential
Task Force on Climate Change
However.... Oil Deregulation Law Clean Air Act EPIRA Law Clean Development
Mechanism Mining Liberalization and Commercial Logging Land Conversion
ASSYMETRIC RESPONSIBILITY AND VULNERABILITY Inverse relationship between climate change vulnerability and responsibility Primary emitter countries must change their production activities and consumption of energy and seek sustainable solutions. Basic human needs, economic and social development need adequate energy and infrastructure.
CARBON OFFSET/CDM
Carbon offset mechanisms shift out carbon mitigation and reduction out of industrialized countries towards developing countries.
Distort development activities while keeping consumption and production activities of industrialized countries.
Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and carbon trading effectively marketize carbon emissions Shuffles around responsibility to curb emissions.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Develop a strategic and comprehensive plan to reduce CO2 and GHG emission of the country
Study the current status and impacts of climate change and global warming to the different sectors
Massive education campaign to inform the people on climate change and how they will cope and mitigate its effects and impacts.
ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS
Rapid destruction of the environment: Direct result of rapid,
unchecked appropriation of resources for the benefit of a few.
environmental destruction environmental plunder
ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS
Pursuit of effective reforms in environment
Quest for a better system of governance
PEOPLE’S RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS
Our environmental advocacy is •People-oriented • Scientific • Patriotic
RECOMMENDATIONS
Develop a energy industry which is not dependent on imported resources and fossil fuels.
Seek and develop clean, cheap power resources and energy plants. Impose moratorium on the construction of coal power plants.
Develop an efficient mass transportation system Banning technologies that are pollutive Develop products that are cost effective
RECOMMENDATIONS Community based disaster response Capacity building for vulnerable communities Work for social change – structural and systematic; Defend our patrimony against foreign and local plunder Popularize and implement proper and sustainable use of our natural resources Popularize correct perspective towards environmental issues – pro-people, patriotic, and scientific orientation
Get involved and organize Conduct information and education activities Lobbying work Actively oppose policies, programs and policies that are antienvironment and anti-people
PHILIPPINE CLIMATE WATCH ALLIANCE philclimatewatch.org Philippine Climate Watch Alliance Convened last February 20, 2008 Philippine Climate Watch
Environmental groups, workers, peasants, urban poor groups Individuals
Grassroots conference on climate change on April 20-21
NETWORK OPPOSED TO BNPP REVIVAL! (NO TO BNPP REVIVAL!) (NO2BNPPREVIVAL.ORG)
YOUTH STOP BNPP REVIVAL! (STOPBNPPREVIVAL.WORDPRESS.COM)
PEOPLE’S SCIENCE SCHOOL (PSS) pss2008.multiply.com Community-based approach of science teaching Volunteers teach basic science and provide technical assistance to basic sectors Topics often involve environmental concerns, energy and water consumption
MARAMING SALAMAT PO
OUTLINE Introduction Environmental Problems Climate Change Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
OUR ENVIRONMENT IS INTERLINKED
Man’s interaction with nature Resources for the production of his needs
Food, clothing, shelter
Tools, processes, technologies
Man’s interaction with man Relations with others Dominance of a segment of society over others
ADVANCES AND CHALLENGES
Great and exciting advances – e.g. Information technology, automation, genetics and medicine
one billion people are hungry 160 million more malnourished every day world wide: 70,000 persons join hungry and starving masses
Greatest challenges – Famine and hunger, rapid ecological destruction, breakdown of health systems, social decay and disintegration
ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
DEFORESTATION
Phil. forest reduced from 70% (1909) to 18.3% (1999)
Increased demand for cheap and plentiful wood in Europe, Japan and the US
¾ of world's commercial timber output is utilized by only ¼ of population
BRIEF HISTORY OF LOGGING IN THE COUNTRY Land area (km2)
Spanish colonization (270,000 km2 forest cover =90% of total land area)
300,000 250,000
American colonization (210,000 km2)
200,000
Nominal Philippine Independence (150,000 km2)
150,000 100,000
Post EDSA Revolution (8,000 km2)
50,000 0 1400
1500
1900
1950
1990
1900s
70%
1988
23%
2010
6%
MINING Philippine Mineral Reserves
Metallic COPPER4.8 COPPER4 B MT
13 metallic ores
7.1 B MT
29 non-metallic
51 B MT
Non-metallic
Philippine production
Gold (2nd) Copper (3rd)
marble
limestone
MINING
Mining for export
Large scale TNC plunder in mining is one of the main causes of environmental degradation in the country
Large scale plunder of the environment for larger profit
Mine spills, acid mine drainage, no clean up of mining activities
Mine tailings
Militarization occurs in mining areas
SHRINKING
LANDS FOR FOOD PRODUCTION
Agricultural production is in crisis. – Erratic production trends, heavily dependent on the serendipitous weather – From a rice exporter to a rice net importer – Shrinking agricultural lands – Philippine gross erosion rate is at 2,046 million metric tons per year – 5.2 million hectares of total land area are severely eroded – Recurrent drought has degraded semi-arid parts of food producing regions – An average of 2,227 has. of irrigated rice lands is converted to settlements and industrial uses annually = permanent loss of agricultural resources as of 1991 1991:: 11, 11,337 has. as of 2001 2001:: 600 600,,000 has.
Croplands are also threatened by industrial and chemical pollution, such as mine tailings spills
Compounding the problem is the continued shift to production of export crops using high yielding varieties (HYVs).
WATER Only 2.53 % of world water is freshwater Asia has less than 36% of the world's water resources Almost all developing countries are exposed to polluted water sources Mega-dams, privatization
WATER POLLUTION
Oil spills: Petron
Guimaras, Visayas more than 10,000 fishermen and their families
Rapu-rapu mine spill Drinking water
Costly, low pressure Privatized
DECLINING MARINE RESOURCES •
RP regarded as "Center of Marine
Biodiversity" in the world, surpassing the Great Barrier Reef of Australia. •
Around 2,500 fish species
•
Rich coral reefs, with 488 out of 800 known species worldwide
•
Longest discontinuous coastline worldwide
•
24 major fishing bays and gulfs, half of these have annual yield levels of 50 metric tons
The irony of bountiful seas •
Declining catch
•
Declining maximum sustainable yields
•
Degraded coral reefs •
Only 4% of coral reefs in good condition
•
Decreasing mangrove areas
•
Pollution
•
Overfishing • •
•
Monopoly control of fishery resources • •
•
90% fish stocks depleted in 50 years Large trawlers, purseiners, foreign fishing vessels poaching in Phil. waters
RA 8550 (Fisheries Code) RA 8435 (AFMA)
Open access policies •
Treaty of Commerce and Navigation with Japan, US, Australia, Canadaoverfishing by foreign firms
•
Privatization of municipal fisheries
•
Displacement – VFA, JPEPA
URBAN POLLUTION
Large-scale factories remain top contributors of pollutants
Underdeveloped countries become dumping grounds
Obsolete and dirty technologies imported in the Philippines
URBANIZATION POVERTY
AND
RURAL
Industrial development results in urbanization, which in turn creates problems like overcrowding and pollution and strains the environment.
But in the Philippines, “urbanization” happens not as a result of industrialization, rather as a result of rural poverty and lack of jobs as a whole.
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENDERS AT RISK
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENDERS AT RISK communities and individuals are actively opposing the presence of entities that promote the devastation of our ecosystems and the plunder of our national patrimony
human, civil, and political rights violations committed against environmental defenders are militarization, human rights violations and legal harassment.
Presence of military detachments and police
Lafayette Rapu-Rapu island, Albay Filminera in Masbate Marcopper in Marinduque TVI in Zamboanga del Norte Xstrata in South Cotabato, NMRDC in Mt. Diwalwal Rio Tuba in Palawan Crew Minerals in Mindoro Oriental Climax Arimco/Oxiana in Nueva Vizcaya, Abra, Batangas, Zambales, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur.
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENDERS AT RISK
Murder of envi defenders
From January 2001 to July 2007- 17 killed Recent : Boy Billianes, 2 IP Leaders in Mindanao
SLAPP (Strategic Lawsuits Agaisnt Public Participation)
ENVIRONMENTAL
CRISIS
The rapid destruction of the environment is a direct result of the
rapid, unchecked appropriation of the world's resources for the benefit of a few.
environment plunder
environmental destruction
CLIMATE CHANGE
WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?
IPCC…. any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity
Accelerated warming of surface due to human-related releases of greenhouses gases
ACCELERATED TEMPERATURE CHANGE 1900’s – hottest century 2005 and 1998 – hottest years; 1995 to 2006, (except 1996) = Top 12 hottest years since 1850
Increase in temperature in the last 50 years was 0.13 degrees centigrade/decade which is twice faster than the last 100 years of 0.6 degrees centigrade
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm.
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
Carbon Dioxide
CO2
CH4
NO2 SF6
H2O Water vapor
HFCs PFCs
Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate!
CO2 N2O CO2 N O CO2 HFCs 2 CO2 CH4 HFCsCH4 N O PFCs SF6CO2 2 4CH4 COCH 2 COCO 2 SF6CO2 2 CO2CO SF6 2
GREENHOUSE GASES • Carbon dioxide CO2 - second most
common GHG. makes up about 25% of the natural greenhouse effect. •occurs naturally through photosynthesis, volcanoes, forest fires. • Burning of oil and gas (for heat, transportation, industry), cement manufacturing, •deforestation and other land uses.
• Nitrous oxide N2O •Methane CH4 - third most
common GHG •Occurs naturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion. Occurs naturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion. • Oil and gas production, coal mining, landfills.
•Also occurs naturally. •Burning of oil, gas, coal, and wood, fertilizers, coal mining.
OTHERS: Water vapor, Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6, Perfluocarbons (PFCs), Hydroflurocarbons (HFCs )
HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Relationship between temperature and malaria parasite development time
Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission across the diverse topography of Zimbabwe, based on United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) global climate scenarios
Source: Patz, Jonathan A. and Olson, Sarah H. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 5635-5636
HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Heat stress
HIGH
Asthma Vector-borne diseases (e.g., malaria, dengue, filariasis) Water & food-borne diseases (e.g., diarrhea, cholera, typhoid, hepa, polio) Nutritional deficiencies Deaths, injuries, psychological disorders (due to social, economic, demographic disturbance)
LOW
Myocardial infarction Tuberculosis Arteriosclerosis most cancers sexually-transmitted diseases
HURRICANES/TYPHOONS (CATEGORY 4/5)
Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005
Changes in climate are already causing harm Major floods per decade, 1950-2000
Dry Season
PROBABLE IMPACTS
Reduced Stream flow
Insufficient Water for Irrigation
Total Crop Loss
Declining Groundwater Level
Limiting Water Supply for Domestic Needs
PROBABLE IMPACTS Rainy Season
Flooding of lowland areas
Increasing Flood Peaks
Silted Rivers
Excessive Runoff Landslides Severe Soil Erosion
COASTAL AND MARINE RESOURCES
The Philippines is richest in marine biodiversity and has the longest discontinuous coastline and one of the richest coral reefs in the world. But fish production is in crisis and fishing and breeding grounds are diminishing.
The poor will face the greatest challenges from climate change.
The rate has doubled this decade. 40 to 80% of the population in developing countries versus a few % in more developed countries
4,000
N umber affected (Millions)
2 billion people in developing countries affected by a climate related disaster in the 1990s.
3,000 Dev'ed CIT
2,000
Dev'ing LDC
1,000
-
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
– Impacts are worse
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change
– Lower capacity to adapt • Lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge
– Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries • Exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.
0 Pakistan
S. Arabia
Poland
S. Africa
Australia
France
Ukraine
Italy
Canada
Germany
India
EU25
USA
WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE?
Top GHG Emitters (2000)
25
20
15
10
5
WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE?
WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE? TNCs
UNITED STATES US is the number 1 producer of CO2 emissions. 25% of CO2 in the atmosphere per year comes from the US US number 1 producer and consumer of fossil fuels 79% of US CO2 emission comes from the use of petroleum and coal for energy and electricity
1998, 4 out of the 11 biggest producers of oil are TNCs (BP Amoco-Arco, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell at ChevronTexaco). 2005, oil TNCs like British Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Shell Dutch controls 18% of global oil reserves TNCs owns the biggest agricultural plantations, logging corporations, large dams, energy plants, etc...
GHGs in RP
1999, Philippines emitted 75,998,000 metric tons of CO2 or 0.3% of world total emission. From 1990 to 1999 our CO2 emission increased by 72%.
Currently we have a higher CO2 emission than some industrialized countries like Switzerland (0.1%), New Zealand (0.1%), Sweden (0.2%), Ireland (0.2%) and Norway (0.2%), and also to some oil producing countries (OPEC members) like Bahrain (0.1%), Libya (0.2%), Nigeria (0.2%) and Kuwait (0.2%)
WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE?
2004, Shell, Caltex, and Petron or the Big Three controls 83% of retailing stations, 86% of total oil products sold and 100% oil refinery in the country
Foreign TNCs also controls our energy industry like Mirant (US) (bought off by Marubeni of Japan) Enron Power Co. (US), Far East Livingston (Singapore)
2006, Petron reported a net profit of P6.05 billion while Shell reported in 2005 a net profit of P5.7 billion
7 out 9 coal power plants and all diesel-fired power plant in the country is owned by foreign and private companies
natural gas in Malampaya, Palawan, owns by Royal Dutch Shell (45%) and Texaco (45%).
ACTIONS AND RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE –Adaptation – any action including changes in practices and decision making processes in order to increase resilience and capacity to cope with current and future changes (IPCC, 2001) –Mitigation – the process of limiting the causes of climate change through measures that could slow down the build up of atmospheric GHGs concentrations by reducing current and future emissions and by increasing GHG sinks
SOME ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES –Conserve water –Use less energy –Recycle (the low carbon diet)
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Adaptation Strategy for Forestry & Agri.
Effect on Water Resources
Effects on Institutions
Effects on Local Communities
Proper scheduling and planting
+ More efficient water - Increase cost for use training, technical assistance , R & D
0
Soil and Water Conservation Measures
+ Conservation of Water
- Increase cost for training, technical assistance , R & D
- Cash expenses
Establishment of fire lines
+ More vegetative cover promote good vegetative cover
+ Less expense on fire fighting
-More labor demand + Less damage to crops from fire; more income
Controlled Burning
+ Less damage to watershed cover
0
0
Construction of Drainage Facillities
+ Better water quality (less sediment load)
- Increase cost of implementation
+ Less soil erosion; less flooding; greater yield
Source: Toward Developing Philippine Adaptation Framework , Paper presented by Rex Victor Cruz and Florencia B. Pulhin during the Executive Forum on Environmental Economics, June 25-29, 2007, SEARCA, UPLB.
MITIGATING MEASURES Mitigation technologies and practices for Agriculture and Forestry (IPCC, 2007)
SECTOR
Forestry
Agriculture
• • • • • •
Afforestation Reforestation Forest Management Reduction of Deforestation Harvested wood product management Use of forestry products for bio-energy to replace fossil fuel use
• Improved crop and grazing land management to increase soil carbon storage • Restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands • Improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock and manure management to reduce CH4 emissions • Improved nitrogen fertilizer application techniques to reduce N2O emission • Dedicated energy fuels crops to replace fuel use • Improved energy efficiency in agriculture • Composting of organic wastes • Controlled waste water treatment • Recycling and waste minimization
ACTIONS AND RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
GOVERNMENT RESPONSE: Formation of Presidential
Task Force on Climate Change
However.... Oil Deregulation Law Clean Air Act EPIRA Law Clean Development
Mechanism Mining Liberalization and Commercial Logging Land Conversion
ASSYMETRIC RESPONSIBILITY AND VULNERABILITY Inverse relationship between climate change vulnerability and responsibility Primary emitter countries must change their production activities and consumption of energy and seek sustainable solutions. Basic human needs, economic and social development need adequate energy and infrastructure.
CARBON OFFSET/CDM
Carbon offset mechanisms shift out carbon mitigation and reduction out of industrialized countries towards developing countries.
Distort development activities while keeping consumption and production activities of industrialized countries.
Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and carbon trading effectively marketize carbon emissions Shuffles around responsibility to curb emissions.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Develop a strategic and comprehensive plan to reduce CO2 and GHG emission of the country
Study the current status and impacts of climate change and global warming to the different sectors
Massive education campaign to inform the people on climate change and how they will cope and mitigate its effects and impacts.
ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS
Rapid destruction of the environment: Direct result of rapid,
unchecked appropriation of resources for the benefit of a few.
environmental destruction environmental plunder
ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS
Pursuit of effective reforms in environment
Quest for a better system of governance
PEOPLE’S RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS
Our environmental advocacy is •People-oriented • Scientific • Patriotic
RECOMMENDATIONS
Develop a energy industry which is not dependent on imported resources and fossil fuels.
Seek and develop clean, cheap power resources and energy plants. Impose moratorium on the construction of coal power plants.
Develop an efficient mass transportation system Banning technologies that are pollutive Develop products that are cost effective
RECOMMENDATIONS Community based disaster response Capacity building for vulnerable communities Work for social change – structural and systematic; Defend our patrimony against foreign and local plunder Popularize and implement proper and sustainable use of our natural resources Popularize correct perspective towards environmental issues – pro-people, patriotic, and scientific orientation
Get involved and organize Conduct information and education activities Lobbying work Actively oppose policies, programs and policies that are antienvironment and anti-people
PHILIPPINE CLIMATE WATCH ALLIANCE philclimatewatch.org Philippine Climate Watch Alliance Convened last February 20, 2008 Philippine Climate Watch
Environmental groups, workers, peasants, urban poor groups Individuals
Grassroots conference on climate change on April 20-21
NETWORK OPPOSED TO BNPP REVIVAL! (NO TO BNPP REVIVAL!) (NO2BNPPREVIVAL.ORG)
YOUTH STOP BNPP REVIVAL! (STOPBNPPREVIVAL.WORDPRESS.COM)
PEOPLE’S SCIENCE SCHOOL (PSS) pss2008.multiply.com Community-based approach of science teaching Volunteers teach basic science and provide technical assistance to basic sectors Topics often involve environmental concerns, energy and water consumption
MARAMING SALAMAT PO
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