Nfp Data Set

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Data Set y x1 x2 x3 Date NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT Jan-94 270 342.438 2.58 11.47 Feb-94 192 363.250 2.63 6.59 Mar-94 468 340.000 2.60 12.33 Apr-94 357 341.625 2.55 6.75 May-94 339 354.625 2.60 11.29 Jun-94 310 345.313 2.55 5.78 Jul-94 359 342.688 2.48 4.49 Aug-94 303 337.813 2.50 10.66 Sep-94 354 334.125 2.48 8.89 Oct-94 206 332.875 2.38 6.94 Nov-94 425 329.250 2.33 9.98 Dec-94 270 325.563 2.35 3.16 Jan-95 321 330.125 2.33 8.12 Feb-95 211 333.188 2.30 10.14 Mar-95 220 341.063 2.33 8.23 Apr-95 163 345.500 2.30 1.47 May-95 (9) 364.375 2.33 12.17 Jun-95 227 369.063 2.40 6.55 Jul-95 71 371.563 2.38 6.05 Aug-95 278 360.500 2.38 5.88 Sep-95 239 363.625 2.40 2.14 Oct-95 149 366.188 2.40 12.52 Nov-95 144 374.938 2.40 3.31 Dec-95 140 366.625 2.38 2.24 (18) 366.125 2.35 13.49 Jan-96 Feb-96 435 382.000 2.43 8.99 (4.09) Mar-96 255 378.625 2.40 Apr-96 165 377.563 2.33 21.34 May-96 329 347.688 2.30 (1.31) Jun-96 271 343.750 2.28 (1.54) Jul-96 228 339.688 2.20 14.10 Aug-96 203 331.188 2.20 2.03 Sep-96 218 337.188 2.20 6.50 Oct-96 238 340.625 2.15 5.80 Nov-96 292 337.563 2.15 8.02 Dec-96 177 347.813 2.20 5.60 Jan-97 229 344.563 2.18 5.10 Feb-97 294 328.688 2.10 5.97 Mar-97 317 318.750 2.03 11.31 Apr-97 291 323.938 2.00 3.71

predicted pred-act abs(miss) 303 33 199 7 (142) 326 289 (68) 246 (93) (43) 267 251 (108) (4) 299 306 (48) 273 67 (145) 280 296 26 272 (49) 250 39 213 (7) 167 4 95 104 86 (141) 62 (9) 122 (156) 107 (132) 113 (36) 48 (96) 81 (59) 97 115 30 (405) 13 (242) 42 (123) 149 (180) 161 (110) 187 (41) 209 6 (33) 185 147 (91) (124) 168 126 (51) (95) 134 194 (100) 231 (86) (112) 179

33 7 142 68 93 43 108 4 48 67 145 26 49 39 7 4 104 141 9 156 132 36 96 59 115 405 242 123 180 110 41 6 33 91 124 51 95 100 86 112

Data Set

Date

May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec-98 Jan-99 Feb-99 Mar-99 Apr-99 May-99

y x1 x2 x3 NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT

262 246 276 (7) 506 339 307 298 268 185 148 278 401 205 121 355 221 192 285 344 121 410 106 376 213

325.438 324.500 325.563 325.250 321.125 312.500 313.250 316.063 320.500 317.375 316.813 312.625 310.000 322.500 345.000 316.750 306.875 308.938 315.250 313.813 330.375 305.063 303.188 308.000 301.625

2.00 2.00 1.95 2.00 1.93 1.90 1.90 1.93 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.85 1.80 1.85 1.95 1.83 1.80 1.80 1.83 1.85 1.90 1.88 1.85 1.83 1.80

9.39 17.69 4.92 6.97 14.75 9.46 7.95 30.31 (3.29) 10.91 12.26 8.54 7.52 9.30 7.67 10.16 5.38 2.36 9.50 9.01 7.24 6.76 13.51 7.06 4.54

predicted

182 203 154 178 189 216 209 247 147 192 198 195 189 143 55 167 202 184 174 189 115 241 256 208 228

pred-act

(80) (43) (122) 185 (317) (123) (98) (51) (121) 7 50 (83) (212) (62) (66) (188) (19) (8) (111) (155) (6) (169) 150 (168) 15

abs(miss)

80 43 122 185 317 123 98 51 121 7 50 83 212 62 66 188 19 8 111 155 6 169 150 168 15

Data Set

Date

Jun-99 Jul-99 Aug-99 Sep-99 Oct-99 Nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 Nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01

y x1 x2 x3 NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT

266 291 192 202 408 294 294 249 121 472 286 225 (46) 163 3 122 (11) 231 138 (16) 61 (30) (281) (44) (128)

297.688 295.375 296.188 287.813 293.125 282.063 281.438 287.063 294.125 279.625 268.813 282.500 285.750 294.250 307.125 305.125 299.188 318.125 342.813 343.188 361.938 386.063 391.250 394.000 400.750

1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.75 1.85 1.90 1.98 2.05 2.10 2.20 2.30

10.44 5.99 9.08 9.72 6.21 10.32 16.44 7.52 10.78 7.52 5.06 19.43 5.48 7.57 9.39 8.38 13.23 5.94 (4.14) 18.11 6.00 (0.56) 9.53 1.40 (0.33)

predicted

261 265 267 313 241 309 324 276 245 316 334 288 243 238 172 181 222 124 7 67 (31) (146) (136) (131) (135)

pred-act

(5) (26) 75 111 (167) 15 30 27 124 (156) 48 63 289 75 169 59 233 (107) (131) 83 (92) (116) 145 (87) (7)

abs(miss)

5 26 75 111 167 15 30 27 124 156 48 63 289 75 169 59 233 107 131 83 92 116 145 87 7

Data Set

Date

Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03

y x1 x2 x3 NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT

(125) (160) (244) (325) (292) (178) (132) (147) (24) (85) (7) 45 (97) (16) (55) 126 8 (156) 83 (158) (212) (49) (6) (2) 25

396.313 396.875 414.875 478.063 455.750 425.000 409.375 404.313 403.125 438.188 413.500 390.813 387.125 391.625 405.500 406.563 398.063 405.250 397.563 405.375 425.875 429.625 427.125 423.750 418.500

2.38 2.43 2.55 2.75 2.83 2.78 2.78 2.75 2.83 2.88 2.90 2.83 2.73 2.78 2.80 2.80 2.73 2.73 2.68 2.73 2.80 2.85 2.93 2.93 2.85

3.25 3.67 (8.29) 3.82 (1.16) 2.38 (10.97) (5.43) (3.01) (5.41) (1.72) (7.24) 0.92 (6.84) 7.21 (6.31) 2.43 (5.95) 1.71 1.18 2.26 2.01 (2.88) 7.59 (5.48)

predicted

(76) (61) (136) (380) (243) (88) (30) (1) 37 (138) 11 95 95 74 36 3 39 (16) 22 (3) (84) (87) (56) (17) (41)

pred-act

49 99 108 (55) 49 90 102 146 61 (53) 18 50 192 90 91 (123) 31 140 (61) 155 128 (38) (50) (15) (66)

abs(miss)

49 99 108 55 49 90 102 146 61 53 18 50 192 90 91 123 31 140 61 155 128 38 50 15 66

Data Set

Date

Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05

y x1 x2 x3 NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT

(42) 103 203 18 124 150 43 338 250 310 81 47 121 160 351 64 132 182 221 121 312 212 259 322 190

400.063 401.000 383.625 368.313 360.188 356.438 366.813 347.563 346.375 337.563 345.500 342.875 341.125 338.000 337.188 330.688 329.313 340.063 319.438 327.188 327.938 326.000 330.750 322.563 317.313

2.83 2.80 2.73 2.63 2.60 2.50 2.48 2.40 2.40 2.38 2.33 2.28 2.30 2.28 2.20 2.15 2.15 2.13 2.10 2.10 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.00 2.00

(2.03) 0.76 2.11 (5.10) 2.86 (1.91) 1.08 7.74 1.53 (2.65) 6.77 3.15 8.34 3.63 (2.10) 8.31 10.40 7.60 8.05 1.97 4.56 13.04 1.09 4.72 12.52

predicted

56 47 116 148 199 173 114 204 198 228 186 175 204 202 168 206 217 145 248 194 186 213 164 188 232

pred-act

98 (56) (87) 130 75 23 71 (134) (52) (82) 105 128 83 42 (183) 142 85 (37) 27 73 (126) 1 (95) (134) 42

abs(miss)

98 56 87 130 75 23 71 134 52 82 105 128 83 42 183 142 85 37 27 73 126 1 95 134 42

Data Set

Date

Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07

y x1 x2 x3 NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT

87 98 380 160 294 274 282 151 24 70 186 149 147 82 261 219 180 36 184 35 156 54 (65) (28) 100

356.000 365.313 321.625 317.875 301.125 289.250 300.250 302.125 327.625 313.313 316.375 316.063 318.688 315.688 321.125 323.750 317.875 319.188 314.688 320.938 307.375 315.250 312.000 318.063 321.063

2.13 2.18 2.08 2.08 1.98 1.90 1.90 1.88 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.88 1.90 1.93 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.93 1.90

4.55 10.29 3.85 (3.15) 19.81 7.48 3.69 10.89 10.27 0.67 18.46 (3.00) 2.99 13.13 7.15 33.24 (14.28) 7.55 10.06 5.59 4.25 10.85 0.37 11.69 4.62

predicted

53 32 219 225 325 337 270 265 136 194 213 172 169 206 164 193 139 185 205 162 233 203 200 199 160

pred-act

(34) (66) (161) 65 31 63 (12) 114 112 124 27 23 22 124 (97) (26) (41) 149 21 127 77 149 265 227 60

abs(miss)

34 66 161 65 31 63 12 114 112 124 27 23 22 124 97 26 41 149 21 127 77 149 265 227 60

Data Set

Date

Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09

y x1 x2 x3 NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT

165 215 120 (72) (144) (122) (160) (137) (161) (128) (175) (321) (380) (597) (681) (741) (681) (652) (519) (303) (463) (304) (154) (139) (111) (11)

324.063 332.813 343.188 334.438 345.313 359.563 372.000 370.125 379.438 383.438 441.375 458.188 481.438 510.688 549.188 541.063 627.875 653.063 649.000 629.150 621.000 579.563 566.350 559.563 531.250 502.563

1.95 1.98 2.03 2.05 2.08 2.18 2.25 2.33 2.35 2.40 2.53 2.68 2.78 3.08 3.35 3.55 3.80 4.23 4.65 5.00 5.05 4.70 4.68 4.63 4.48 4.17

5.01 4.84 (7.24) 16.78 6.65 3.54 3.14 0.02 4.82 1.38 (2.79) 10.43 (1.61) (0.45) (3.56) (7.08) (8.50) (4.00) (9.32) (10.52) (8.02) (8.08) (7.25) (8.44) (12.48) (5.86)

predicted

163 124 62 166 96 50 9 40 9 (2) (277) (287) (400) (447) (561) (452) (832) (803) (640) (408) (341) (245) (179) (163) (73) (17)

pred-act

(2) (91) (58) 238 240 172 169 177 170 126 (102) 34 (20) 150 120 289 (151) (151) (121) (105) 122 59 (25) (24) 38 (6)

abs(miss)

2 91 58 238 240 172 169 177 170 126 102 34 20 150 120 289 151 151 121 105 122 59 25 24 38 6

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