Models Of Decision Making

Models of Decision making Every manager has to take decision and every manager is model of decision making Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi

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Models of decision making The Herbert Simon model The administrative model The classical model

Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi

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Administrative Model Manager is the decision maker to handle the situation Relevant information is collected by him Decision making is certainly in the interest of manager which certainly may not be in the interest of the organization e.g.Expediency ,opportunism Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi

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The classical model Manager plays major role of decision making He collects all the information required for activity Decision would be in the interest of organization.

Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi

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Decision making tools Pay off matrix Decision Tree Decision rules Decision tables

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Pay off Matrix Essential quantitative technique for decision making It summarizes interaction of various alternative actions and events Pay off matrix is prepared by using probabilities Positive payoff implies profit while negative payoff implies loss Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi

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Decision Tree It is basically extension of probability theory to decision making It helps decision maker to when he has to make sequence of decisions Different alternatives form branches from initial decision point and then moves on to various options emanating from different points is known as decision tree. Initial decision point is known as decision node while different points are 7 Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi

Decision tree…. Decision tree is a means of representing the sequential multistage logic decision problem This is oriented to show decision paths rather than the criteria. It is convenient for showing probabilities for outcomes. Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi

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Steps involved in Decision Tree Build the tree starting fro decision point Add the branches for external states of events Include probability of each state. Assign value of each unique branch. Work backward to analyze the Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi

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Standard presentation of Decision tree Chance node 2nd Decision point

Initial Point Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi

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Decision rules

1. Decision rules and tables are used together 2. It enables decision maker to make better decisions and more economically. 4. These2 rules are used for programmable and routine operating decisions. 2 4. It is imperative that decision rules are documented. .

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Decision Tables Decision table documents rules that selects one or more actions based on one or more conditions from a set of possible conditions. It is very precise and compact. Decision table includes both qualitative and quantitative bases for decision making I t is in the form of IF…THEN condition He helps the analyst to consider all possible conditions,options and Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi 12

Components of DSS DSS has three basic components: 2. The database 3. A model Base 4. DSS Software system

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The DATABASE It is collection of current or historical data or files which are internally linked together. It provides easy access for range of applications. DSS extract the data from databases which could be internal or external Mrs.Shubhalaxmi Joshi

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Model base It represents components and relationship of phenomenon A model can be physical, mathematical or a verbal model DSS make use of three basic types of models.

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Model base …… Decision support system

Management science Behavioural model model

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Operation research model

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Behavioural Model The focus is on studying, understanding and the trends among the variables. Forecasting, correlation, regression these are the basic examples

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Management science model These models are based upon principles of management, management accounting and Econometrics. Cost accounting system, Inventory management, capital budgeting

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Operation research model It is application of mathematical formulae arriving at optimum solutions. LPP,ABC ANALYSIS

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