Is Iran Dropping Russia For Turkey?

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Is Iran dropping Russia for Turkey? As Ayatollah Khamenei sidles up to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he could learn from Turkey's leader about balancing his alliances

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Meir Javedanfar guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 17 November 2009 15.00 GMT

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The famous Chinese strategist, Sun Tzu, wrote in his book, The Art of War: "If an enemy has alliances, the problem is grave and the enemy's position strong; if he has no alliances, the problem is minor and the enemy's position weak." Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is currently witnessing how the US, which he sees as the enemy for his nuclear ambitions, is working hard on building alliances, including with Russia. Khamenei is not happy. So much so that Iran recently cancelled a deal with Russia to launch its communication satellite, and turned to Italy instead. This is in addition to recent complaints from Tehran regarding delays from Russia in the delivery of the S-300 anti-aircraft system. Until recently, Tehran kept its complaints away from the cameras and behind closed doors. But now that Khamenei sees the Russians as disloyal, his regime is not shy about airing its criticism publicly. The Iranian government has decided to take the initiative and to look for a new partner to replace the Russians. Judging by the recent flurry of visits between Tehran and Ankara, it seems that Khamenei has found a willing partner in Turkey. Unlike Russia, Turkey does not have a veto in the UN security council. However, its stock in the Middle East and the Islamic world is certainly rising. Its prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is being seen more and more as a credible defender of Islamic and Arab issues. Many people on the Arab street respect his leadership, as he was elected in a genuinely democratic elections. The same can not be said about Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, or King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who received their posts undemocratically. Erdogan's relations with the US and the EU also count in his favour. Although he has recently been getting closer to his Muslim and Arab regional neighbours, he has not severed his ties with the west, but is masterfully playing both sides. His relations with the US are also not based on Turkey's weaknesses. On one occasion, he resisted US pressure and even walked away from a promise of $6bn in grants and $20bn loan guarantees, because he did not find the agreement suitable. And his verbal attacks on Israel after the recent Gaza war have certainly helped his image in the region. Now that Khamenei has turned down Barack Obama's nuclear offer, he feels that the prospect of sanctions is greater. Therefore, he needs a change of strategy to deal with the expected difficult time ahead. One strategy is to turn his struggle against Obama into a new west v Islam confrontation. Judging by the recent international TV debate in Qatar, where Iran's nuclear programme was discussed in front of a select audience from the Middle East, there certainly is sympathy for his position. As far as many people in the region are concerned, Iran's nuclear programme is the only way to counter Israel's superior balance

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of power. Therefore this is a viable strategy. And Erdogan's rising popularity in the region, and Tehran's improving relations with his administration, will be a feasible way for Khamenei to improve his own position during the difficult times ahead. The absence of progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace track will also help him.

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However, the Iranian supreme leader should be careful about how he approaches his relations with Turkey and the price he is willing to pay for it, both at home and abroad. According to the Iranian news website Khabar online, the Ahmadinejad government concluded a secret gas agreement with Turkey in late October, without informing parliament. After the news was recently leaked to the press, parliament launched a full investigation. There are now discussions about cancelling the whole deal if, as the members of parliament say, it is found to be against the country's interests. Many people suspect that Khamenei offered the deal in unfavourably good conditions to Ankara, as a means of buying its loyalty. Judging by its results it seems to have worked. However, the domestic backlash could damage the legitimacy of his regime even further.

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There is also the issue of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Turkey can not complete it. Only Russia can. Khamenei turning his back on Moscow could be even more detrimental to this important and expensive project. Perhaps Khamenei could learn from the Turks, and instead of constantly changing one ally for another learn to balance his alliances.

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gondwanaland 17 Nov 2009, 3:15PM

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Many Iranians i've met would like to see Iran become more like Turkey, so this alliance will please them no end. However i'm not convinced Iran has "dropped" Russia, even if Obama has been cosying up to the Russians of late.

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Sounds like you're short of things to write about Meir?

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dakma 17 Nov 2009, 3:34PM

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This is exciting news as Turkey and Iran are the two largest democracies in the Islamic world and could do much to stabilize the middle east especially learning from each other.

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robofluffer 17 Nov 2009, 3:36PM

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"but is masterfully playing both sides." Not so sure about that. He overplayed his hand in the Rasmussen affair and if it wasn't for a pathologically spineless POTUS he would really be out of the loop.

12pins 17 Nov 2009, 3:43PM

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Sounds like you're short of things to write about Meir? Isnt that always the case with him? 90% of the content of his articles seems to be guess with nothing to really back it up. If what you say is true and Iran is looking more to Turkey then that can only be a

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good thing for both the Iranians and the region as a whole. There needs to be a balance of powers there, at the moment its America and her allies.

meirjavedanfar 17 Nov 2009, 3:53PM

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12pins, you say 90% of the content of his articles seems to be guess with nothing to really back it up. Would be very happy for you to show me those 90%.

idiocr4cy 17 Nov 2009, 4:14PM

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It goes to show how vulnerable and weak Iran is right now. It is willing to give away riches to countries to buy their loyalty.

EurObeideZakani 17 Nov 2009, 4:50PM

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This is exciting news as Turkey and Iran are the two largest democracies in the Islamic world and could do much to stabilize the middle east especially learning from each other. Pakistan? Indonesia? Bangladesh?

shalone 17 Nov 2009, 4:50PM

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It appears the Turks are now back in the Middle East, in the benign guise of traders and diplomats. The move is natural, considering proximity, the strength of the Turkish economy, the revival of Islamic feeling in Turkey after decades of enforced secularism, and frustration with the sluggishness of talks to join the European Union. Indeed, Turkey?s Middle East offensive has taken on something of the scale and momentum of an invasion, albeit a peaceful one. And Iran with so much capital in possession, is right on the top. Turkey's export has swollen nearly sevenfold in 2008. From cars to tableware, dried figs to television serials, Turkish products, unknown a decade ago, are now ubiquitous in markets in Tehran. Obviously in return iran wants something from Turkey. Disappointed in EU, Turkey is willing to oblige.

corrocamino 17 Nov 2009, 4:52PM

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I'm left wondering whether you know less than they do about what they're doing and why.

meirjavedanfar 17 Nov 2009, 5:07PM

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Shalone, Congratulations for your excellent input and analysis.

dakma 17 Nov 2009, 5:20PM

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EurObeideZakani: My apologies,I meant democracies in the middle east.

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corrocamino 17 Nov 2009, 5:22PM

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You're welcome. Polly now wants a cracker.

whyhateusa 17 Nov 2009, 5:39PM

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Last i heard Russia was greatly considering economic sanctions against Iran if they didn't agree to a UN resolution soon. My guess is that Iran didn't take it so well and decided to try and ally with one of Russia's largest Black Sea rivals, which is Turkey. Of course Turkey and the US have been allies and friends for years. I certainly hope no one expects turkey to through out all Americans in theior country, shut down thier embassy in Washington or even evictt he US embassy.

zatar 17 Nov 2009, 6:25PM

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However, the domestic backlash could damage the legitimacy of his regime even further. The legitimacy of Iranian regime is better than the legitimacy of the violent regime at Tel Aviv. Iran is perfectly capable of judging who their well wishers are. Why do you think they dropped US? Al-Jazeera is another weapon of mass disinfo. Iran has no nuclear weapon program. A tired attempt to manipulate it's clean energy prog into weapon's prog. Many people on the Arab street respect his leadership, as he was elected in a genuinely democratic elections. The same can not be said about Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, or King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who received their posts undemocratically. Your concern about Arab street opinion is moving. None of them have any respect for Israel, Middle East's butchery wearing democracy mask. Do you care?

Babeouf 17 Nov 2009, 6:54PM

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The Turkish government has decided to establish itself as regional power. The intellectual basis for this move was a proposition that originated in Russia on the emergence of a multi polar world. When the concept was first advanced the Western elites gave the notion short shrift. It was looked on as a losers gambit. Now of course you encounter the idea everywhere(though of course without acknowledging its roots). I am not convinced that there is any real rift between the Russian and Iranian governments. The Iranian's want their reactor finished , the S 300 missiles delivered. The Russian's want? This part of the transaction is the most opaque. In any case Turkey cannot supply Iran with the technologies it needs. China is a better bet. Presently the Iranian standoff is a soap opera. Will Russia rat out the Iranian government? Will Russia rat out Obama? Will the Russian's use their mediation to promote their interests? No that's not really a question.

mountgomery 17 Nov 2009, 7:22PM

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Perhaps Khamenei could learn from the Turks, and instead of constantly changing one ally for another learn to balance his alliances. I knew there was going to be a point in this article where Khamenei was the one who had to "change". How about changing Obama's "olive branch" to Iran, and let Iran dictate the course of shipping its uranium to Russia and other countries? Why doesn't Mr Javedanfar ever says anything about Iran's offer to Obama and "the west"? Islamic extremism is one side. The "west's constant self-rightousness is the other. Both work against any piece process and NATO countries are certainly not an example of loyalty when it comes to "allies".

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mountgomery 17 Nov 2009, 7:53PM

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Sorry Mr Javendafar, take the word "ever" out of my last post as I couldn't possibly know that for sure. I'm of course speaking about the articles I've read from you.

heatwave2022 17 Nov 2009, 8:43PM

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Turkey is finally coming out of the cold war, despite past US pressure and the military hanging over. Let's then welcome Turkey back into the free world. Slowly... slowly... Turks will win the freedom they have desperately searched for nearly a century.

mg1234 17 Nov 2009, 9:38PM

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The basic notion behind this article - that Iran has decided 'to look for a new partner (ie Turkey) to replace the Russians' lacks credibility. There is essentially nothing new in there being contractual disputes between Iran and Russia. Nevertheless, Iran co-operates with Russia when it serves it's own national interests and indeed both countries will continue to share certain common and strategic interests. However, the relationship is two way and not based on dependence. Likewise it is entirely natural that Iran should have good relations with neighbouring countries, especially one as important as Turkey. If these has been a strengthening of Iranian-Turkish relations lately, if anything it comes in the wake of the strengthening of the democratic system in Turkey and the consequent weakening of the role of the military in politics. It is clear that one of the main aim of post revolutionary Iranian is independence and it has said that it is prepared to have relations based on mutual respect with all countries apart from Apartheid South Africa and Apartheid Israel.

loewe 17 Nov 2009, 10:39PM

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Very interesting article which taught me something new about the options of Iran and of Turkey. It makes me better understand Erdogan's problematic statement (concerning Sudan/Darfur) that a Muslim nation would never commit genocide. It was a display of propaganda with the intention to increase his standing in the Muslim world. (Counterfactual, of course, but how do WE react when Western statesmen make counterfactual statements which flatter us, the Westerners?) It fascinates me to see how, finally, the "Oriental" nations become ready to develop their own agendas. China, India, Iran, Turkey ... more and more they become powers in world politics to be reckoned with by the Western powers (Russia included). Europe would be wise to keep the door wide open for Turkey - in 15 or 20 years we may beg on our knees Turkey to join the EU. It will take some time, still, so the arrogant Westerners may dream on a while and curse the evil "Orientals" for their lack of obedience and deference to us.

ShoeThrower 17 Nov 2009, 10:43PM

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Don't be silly Meir. As if the Ayatollahs would be so stupid as to drop Russia for Turkey. I accept that public opinion of Turkey has risen in the Islamic world but their is very little Turkey can give Iran other than moral support. Turkey cannot help Iran in its Nuclear programme as its own industry can hardly be described as self sufficient, its economy is in one of the worse shape in the world, it cannot sell it any weapons and would stay more or less neautral if Israel attacked. One the whole their respective powers or more or less balanced (similar GDP, similar population, similar size army etc). its just good neighbourly relations not a strategic alliance. I am not saying that Russia is totally compliant but it helps iran by saying "Niet" at the SC once in a while.

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URL:Iran's http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/17/iran-russia-turkey-khamenei-erdogan You can see why you are writing articles for Guardian and not running

nuclear programme. lol.

wayne28 17 Nov 2009, 11:07PM

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This is diversification, or whatever you call it.

BOREALIS 17 Nov 2009, 11:56PM

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Editor: Is Iran dropping Russia for Turkey? The title question would have sounded more to the point, if it were to ask: Is Russia dropping Iran for Turkey to Pick Them Up?

Zarbuvit2009 18 Nov 2009, 6:03AM

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Gondwanaland writes: Many Iranians i've met would like to see Iran become more like Turkey ... Problem is, Turkey will look more like Iran and not the contrary. Dakma writes: This is exciting news as Turkey and Iran are the two largest democracies in the Islamic world Iran might be large, but democratic it ain't. Even if we don\t take in account rigged elections, we can hardly call a country that selects who can run for parliament democratic. As to the claim that Iran will stabilize the region, let me laugh at the concept, seeing as Iran has a finger in every hot spot in the middle East: Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, Somalia and Sudan. Funnily enough, everywhere they are to be found, strife and war ensues.

gondwanaland 18 Nov 2009, 7:50AM

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Zarbuvit2009 "Problem is, Turkey will look more like Iran and not the contrary" I think we're both right/wrong. There's a middle way here, and that's probably what most people in both countries would like. A kind of "soft" Islamic democracy. "Iran might be large, but democratic it ain't" Iranian democracy has had many setbacks but is very much in place. The events of June this year were disgraceful, but they remind us that the apparatus of democracy are all able to function, and that Iranian people are up for it. Compared to the US backed dictatorships in the region, Iran is already a trail blazer. Reform is badly needed i agree, and then as Dakma writes, Iran and Turkey will indeed be stabilizing influences.

KrustytheKlown 18 Nov 2009, 8:32AM

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Here's an interesting take on Iran's relationship with Russia. http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2009/11/why-is-saudi-arabia-going-onweapons.htmlhttp:// Not sure what to make of it, but an interesting theory. But the discussion shows that, despite the patronising 'we are the world' nonsense spouted by Obama and his fave groupie the boy Miliband, iran is not 'isolated' and in fact has plenty of options. The term 'international community' as used to refer to the US and EU, was always inaccurate, but is becoming more obviously so now. The Iranians, the Chinese, the Turks etc all know this. The 'west' appears not to. Or not to want to.

Zarbuvit2009

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18 Nov 2009, 8:36AM

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@ Gondwanaland. I contend that Iran is playing a double strategic game. confrontation with the West as a rallying point for it's other aim: confrontation with the Sunni world. It's stance vis-a-vist the West puts it in te front line of Islam's perceived enemies: Israel (with the funding and arming of Hizballah and Hamas), the Us in Iraq, Saudia in Yemen ans i believe they are also active in Somalia and Sudan. This puts them in a position to dominate the Middle East ad propel them into the rank of first regional power, something of course Israel (and some other regional forces) cannot agree to. In as much as I understand their motives, I cannot agree that Iran is a stabilizing factor in the Middle East.

gondwanaland 18 Nov 2009, 9:07AM

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Zarbuvit2009 Shia Muslims have been downtrodden for generations and are finally finding thier voice. Of course Iran supports them to some extent. Saudi Arabia supports the Taliban and Sunni militias in Iraq and elsewhere. I don' see you mentioning that. If Saudi and Egypt were not US backed dictatorships i suspect they'd join Iran in supporting the democratically elected Palestinian government too.

shalone 18 Nov 2009, 9:29AM

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meirjavedanfar, Thanks for your compliment on my input yesterday.

justimagin 18 Nov 2009, 9:52AM

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is being seen more and more as a credible defender of Islamic and Arab issues. Many people on the Arab street respect his leadership, as he was elected in a genuinely democratic elections. Good on him, he's like a breath of fresh air, just what Turkey needed. I ve heard from a few Turkish friends that they fear that "he's doing too well" (as if someone can do too well?), some have said that they fear a military coup is on the cards, some have said that some of Turkeys generals are in Americas pocket and they know what could very possibly happed. watch this space.

KrustytheKlown 18 Nov 2009, 10:02AM

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is being seen more and more as a credible defender of Islamic and Arab issues. Many people on the Arab street respect his leadership, as he was elected in a genuinely democratic elections. Strange, isn't it? The country often lambasted by conservative Muslims as a nation oppressive in its secularism (how many times have I been told 'they ban the hijab' when of course they don't) is now at the forefront of international Islamic politics. While those wealthy Gulf nations which portray themselves as the heart of Islam, are in reality tools of the US.

12pins 18 Nov 2009, 10:18AM

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Meir just look to this artcile, exactly where have you provided any links to back up any of your points to the reasons for Iran looking to Turkey and not to Russia anymore? Most of it is just superfical.

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Like i said earlier much of your articles seem to just be guesswork, no http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/17/iran-russia-turkey-khamenei-erdogan shame URL:

in that, most of the writers on CIF are exactly the same so you're in good company. While those wealthy Gulf nations which portray themselves as the heart of Islam, are in reality tools of the US. Excellent point of course.

gondwanaland 18 Nov 2009, 11:23AM

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Krusty "how many times have I been told 'they ban the hijab' when of course they don't)" Didn't Kemal Ataturk ban the Fez, AKA Tommy Cooper hat? I think that's something a lot of people get confused about when they talk about banning headware. The Shah's father banned the use of the word Persia as well as postcards of camels according to stephen Kinzers excellent All The Shah's Men.

gondwanaland 18 Nov 2009, 11:27AM

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I have read that Qadaffi banned the veil but don't have time right now to research. Anyone know?

KrustytheKlown 18 Nov 2009, 11:33AM

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Didn't Kemal Ataturk ban the Fez, AKA Tommy Cooper hat? Yes and it's said he would also have completely banned the headscarf if he thought he could get away with it. But the most the Turkish state could do was ban it in official institutions such as state-run schools and universities. The ban still exists though there's recently been talk of revising it. Anyway, my point is that while Turkey is seen by many Muslims as almost a traitor to Islam (whatever that means) in reality it is much more proactive in issues of interest to Muslims than the puppet gulf states. And it's not that new a thing either: Turkey refused to allow its air space to be used to attack Iraq, whereas many of the Gulf states quietly allowed the US to use their seas and territory as part of the war effort.

gwillikers 18 Nov 2009, 12:35PM

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So moderate Turkey is now buddies with Iran? Seems like the planets are aligning themselves into Islam vs. the West. Of course this was inevitable and as an American I'd greatly prefer an alliance with Russia over Turkey. I think its time, now that Iran and Turkey are aligned and America owes the Kurds in Iraq, that a push for a real Kurdistan become a focal point of American foreign policy. Lets see the response from the Islamists and their leftist allies when an actual people, with a seperate culture, customs, history, language, immense population and contiguous land mass try to assert their real rights, pushing the Palestinians to the back bench. Let the excuses and hypocricy fly!!!

RedScot 18 Nov 2009, 1:15PM

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Turkey has been the moderator of the politics of the region - which includes everywhere east of Istanbul - since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded that nation, despite the dictatorial way he and his military comrades went about it. That Iran is wooing Turkey comes as no surprise but it is well that we remember that (Kurdish) Mosul was a part of the Ottoman empire and that Turkey, in its battle for independence after WW1, sought sovereignty over the area on that basis; only to be denied by the British when they created the illusionary state of Iraq in order to exploit the oil resources. The Kurdish 'question' is central to both powers. Turkey has recently made approaches towards social inclusivity, whereby the Kurds who accept Turkish nationality will gain a large degree of autonomony.

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The Iranians, who supported the Kurdish people who live on the borders between Iran and Iraq in their struggle against the Saddam Hussein regime, are now finding themselves in a quandry concerning the question of Kurdish independence/autonomy within the new Iraq. The question Iran now faces is basically to support Kurdish control of the oil wealth of Mosul and surrounds, and thereby antagonize the government in Baghdad, or, support the new Iraqi government and alienate the Kurds, leading therefore to a backlash from the Kurds who live in the borderlands of northern Iran/Iraq? It is not so much that Iran is "dropping Russia for Turkey" at all. It is more likely that Iran has no choice. The Turks are the only government which might help in solving an almost intractable problem, while the Russians just continue to be wracked by economic and political incompetence, and, thus, count as inconsequential in the affairs of the region.

Duballiland 18 Nov 2009, 1:27PM

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Maybe the Iranian's could hold a fresh election and not murder its own citizen's openly on the streets afterwards. I don't think so. Let's see less prescription for a nicer Iranian dictatorship...after all it is a theocracy.

corrocamino 18 Nov 2009, 1:54PM

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Any pre-TV types out there? If so, perchance you had opportunity to hear the radio suspense show called "The Shadow". Said Shadow's resounding* rhetorical question was, "Who knows what evil lies in the hearts of men? [echoing cynical laughter]" I suggest we pursue that question by tearing the hearts out of several leading neocons for close examination. Let the Iranians operate on their own ayatollahs. ____ * Nowadays, things resonate.

orangered 18 Nov 2009, 2:51PM

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Is Iran dropping Russia for Turkey? Turkey has no independent foreing policy to lead.Turks always get advice from USA. Without american influence, turks can not do anyting in the region.What ever they do with iran,it should not be interpreted as turkey is as big as russia.Iran knows that turkey has been working with america for a log time therfore whenever iran want it to communicate with USA they use turkish channel so that they do not have to explain to their people that they are communicating with Amerikans. Because of Amerikan foreing policy in the middle east which is ( liberal islam) there is a big role for turkey to play. Now turkey is playing that role.

mountgomery 18 Nov 2009, 9:52PM

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gwillikers Seems like the planets are aligning themselves into Islam vs. the West. Them Islamists are at it again. I think its time, now that Iran and Turkey are aligned and America owes the Kurds in Iraq, that a push for a real Kurdistan become a focal point of American foreign policy. Agree completely. Shame it hasn't though, Any thoughts on that? Lets see the response from the Islamists and their leftist allies when an actual people, with a seperate culture, customs, history, language, immense population and contiguous land mass try to assert their real rights, pushing the Palestinians to the back bench.

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Let's see it happening. Then you can prove whether this usual rant overhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/17/iran-russia-turkey-khamenei-erdogan the left URL:

and Islam, most of which is demonstrably false and outright ridiculous, has any back up. Let the excuses and hypocricy fly!!! You want to talk about Hypocrisy? Look at PKK - US, and Turkey - US relations for an example of real hypocrisy when it comes to the Kurds. Here's some for starters: She spoke glowingly of the Turks, declared them stalwart allies, reminded them of their love of Bill Clinton, who, when he was president, had delivered the Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan to their island prison, Imrali, and noted, referring to her host, ?We discussed our cooperation to defeat our common enemy, the PKK.? The third was how many Americans actually know of the PKK that Clinton calls the enemy of the United States. I am a Kurd and consider myself well versed on the topic and could give your secretary of state a lecture on the subject. The Kurdish organization has never harmed an American to date. It has, however, been very critical of Washington?s unwavering support of Ankara. So is this how it made it to the list of the enemies of the United States? Let me be as plain as the English language allows me to be: your secretary of state fools no one when she misconstrues the enduring Kurdish struggle for freedom as ?terrorism? in Turkey or ?sectarianism? in Iraq. http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-25600-World-HistoryExaminer~y2009m10d7-Kani-Xulam-at-World-Affairs-Council--Hillary-RodhamClinton-lost-her-bearings-in-Kinshasa Hypocrisy is already flying high over the Kurd issue. Only you chose to ignore it.

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