Irregular Migration In The Uk

WWW.IPPR.ORG

IrregularMigrationin theUK Anipprupdate May2009 ©ippr2009

InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch Challengingideas– Changingpolicy

2

ippr|IrregularMigration:Anipprupdate

Aboutippr TheInstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(ippr)istheUK’sleadingprogressivethinktank,producing cutting-edgeresearchandinnovativepolicyideasforajust,democraticandsustainableworld. Since1988,wehavebeenattheforefrontofprogressivedebateandpolicymakingintheUK.Through ourindependentresearchandanalysiswedefinenewagendasforchangeandprovidepractical solutionstochallengesacrossthefullrangeofpublicpolicyissues. WithofficesinbothLondonandNewcastle,weensureouroutlookisasbroad-basedaspossible, whileourinternationalandmigrationteamsandclimatechangeprogrammeextendourpartnerships andinfluencebeyondtheUK,givingusatrulyworld-classreputationforhighqualityresearch. ippr,30-32SouthamptonStreet,LondonWC2E7RA.Tel:+44(0)2074706100E:[email protected] www.ippr.org.RegisteredCharityNo.800065 ThisbriefingwasfirstpublishedinMay2009.©ippr2009

3

ippr|IrregularMigration:Anipprupdate

IrregularMigrationintheUK:Anipprupdate Keypoints

•Peoplewhohaveenteredthecountryillegallymakeuparelativelysmallproportionoftheirregular migrantpopulationintheUK–mostirregularmigrantsentertheUKlegally,andsomearealsolegally resident(butnotlegallyworking).

•ipprbelievesthattherecentestimatesofirregularmigrantsintheUKpublishedbytheLondonSchoolof Economics–whichhaveacentralestimateof725,000–giveagoodindicationofthelikelyirregular migrantpopulation.However,theseestimatesexcludemigrantswhoareintheUKlegally,butare breachingthework-relatedconditionsoftheirentryorresidence.Thisgroupcouldnumberuptoan additional165,000migrantswhoareinsomesense‘irregular’.

•IrregularmigrantsaremakingasignificantcontributiontotheUKeconomy,mainlydoinglow-skilled,lowpaidjobsinsectorssufferingfromhighvacancyrates.

•However,theeconomiccontributionofirregularmigrantsisreducedbecauseofthefactthattheyare ‘irregular’,asistheircontributiontothepublicpurse.Althoughthelimiteddataonirregularmigrants makesanyfirmfiguresdifficulttocomeby,weestimatethattheUK’sirregularmigrantswouldpaywellin excessof£1billionoftaxperyeariftheyworkedinthelegalandregulareconomy,andpossibly substantiallymore.

•Moreneedstobedonetoencouragewould-beirregularmigrantstostayintheircountries,including throughtargeteddevelopmentsupportandbetterinformationforwould-bemigrants.

•TheGovernmentshouldmakecompliancewiththeruleseasierformigrantswhoarealreadylegallyable toworkintheUK,includingbyendingtherequirementformigrantsfromEUaccessionstatestoregister undertheWorkerRegistrationScheme.Itshouldalsoexpandthelegalopportunitiestoworkforthose whoarelegallyresidentintheUKaslimitinglegalmigrants’abilitytoworkslowstheirintegrationand reducestheircontributiontotheUK.

•Rigorousenforcementofemploymentregulationsisneededtodealwiththoseemployerswhoknowingly employirregularmigrantsinordertobreaktheserules.

•Moreroutesforlegalmigration(particularlyforthelowskilled)areneeded,bothtomeettheneedsof employersintheUK,andtodivertpotentialirregularmigrantsintolegalmigration.

•TurningablindeyetoirregularmigrantsalreadyintheUKisnotacrediblepolicy:aswellasreducingthe economiccontributionofmigrants,irregularityhasdamagingconsequencesformigrantsthemselvesand socialcostsfortheircommunitiesbecauseirregularitylimitsintegration.

•Removingallirregularmigrantsisalsounfeasible.Itwouldcostupto£12billion(excludingsupportand accommodation)andtakeatleast25yearsbasedoncurrentcostsandratesofremoval.

•TheUKshouldlookatwaysthatirregularmigrantscould‘earn’theirwaybacktoregularstatus,basedon theirrecordintheUK,sponsorshipbyreputableorganisations,andfamilyandhumanitarian considerations.

•Regularisationshouldnotcomethroughaone-offamnesty.Apathwaybacktoregularisationshouldbe builtintotheimmigrationsystem.

•Notallwhowanttostayshouldbeallowedto.Somepeopleshouldberemoved.Othersshouldonlybe abletostayonatemporarybasis.

4

ippr|IrregularMigration:Anipprupdate

Introduction ThisupdateonirregularmigrationintheUKisbasedonresearchandanalysiscarriedoutfor recentipprmigrationresearchprojects.Apaperontheeconomicsofirregularmigrationwill bepublishedaspartofippr’s‘EconomicsofMigration’seriesinthecomingweeks.In addition,ippriscurrentlyconductingnewprimaryresearchonirregularmigrationintheUK, theresultsofwhichwillbepublishedlaterin2009. WeareissuingthisbriefingnowtocoincidewiththeStrangersintoCitizensrallytakingplace inLondonon4May2009,whichipprissupporting. Thebriefingoutlines:

•WhoirregularmigrantsintheUKare •HowmanyirregularmigrantsareintheUK •ThecostsandbenefitstotheUKofirregularmigration •Howdifficultitistobeanirregularmigrant,andhowtheGovernmentisresponding •RecommendationsforhowtheGovernmentshouldrespondtoirregularmigration Whoareirregularmigrants? Inthepopularmindset,anirregularmigrantissomeonewhocrossestheborderillegally.The classicimageremainsthatofayoungman,campingatSangatte,waitingforhischanceto clingtotheundersideoflorrycomingthroughtheChannelTunnel. Butthisisjustpartofthestory–anditisincreasinglyoutofdate.TheUK’sirregular migrantsarehighlydiverse,andare‘irregular’inanumberofdifferentways.Theterms ‘illegalmigrants’and‘irregularmigrants’refertothesamegroups(allirregularmigrantsare insomesenseactingoutsidethelaw,bydefinition),but‘illegalmigrants’isavalue-laden term,andtendstosuggestamuchlessnuancedpositionthanisinfactthecase,forthere areatleastthreemainwaysinwhichmigrantsintheUKcanbe‘irregular’: Clandestineentrants Internationally,storiesofmigrantsdyinginthedesertsoftheUnitedStates/Mexicoborder, ortryingtocrosstheMediterraneanSeainleakyboatsfromAfrica,havehighlightedthe riskstakenbythosewhoaredesperateenoughtocrossbordersillegally.Thesestoriesalso showhowmucheffortgovernmentsareputtingintocontrollingtheirborders–ithas becomeverydifficulttoentermanycountries,theUKincluded.Asaresult,thosemigrants whoentertheUKillegally(andwhoareoftensmuggledortraffickedintothecountry)– clandestineentrants–makeuparelativelysmallproportionoftheUK’sirregularmigrants. Clandestineresidents SomeirregularmigrantsentertheUKlegally,butthenstaylongerthanpermittedbytheir conditionsofentry,thusbecomingclandestineresidents.Thisgroupincludesthosewho remainintheUKafteranasylumclaimhasbeendeniedorwhohaveoverstayedholidayor studentvisas. Clandestineworkers SomemigrantswhoarelegallyresidentintheUKfacerestrictionsontheirrighttowork–for example,asylumseekersandnon-EUstudents.Whenmigrantsworkincontraventionof theserestrictions,theybecomeclandestineworkers.Evenifmigrantsarelegallyresidentand areallowedtoworkintheUK,theymaybecomeirregularbyfailingtofullycomplywith immigrationregulations;forexample,workersfromEUaccessioncountrieswhofailto registerwiththeauthorities.

5

ippr|IrregularMigration:Anipprupdate

HowmanyirregularmigrantsareintheUK? Itisnotoriouslydifficulttomakereliableestimatesaboutthepopulationofirregular migrants. ArecentestimatebytheLondonSchoolofEconomicssuggestedthattherewerebetween 524,000and947,000irregularmigrantsintheUKin2007,withacentralestimateof 725,000.1 Thiscompareswithapreviousestimatethatputthenumberin2001at310,000to 570,000,withamid-pointestimateof430,000.2 WethinktherecentLSEestimategivesagoodindicationofthelikelyirregularmigrant population–thereisreasontobelievethattherehasindeedbeenanincreaseinthenumber ofirregularmigrantsintheUKsince2001. However,thisestimatedidnotincludelegalresidentswhomaynonethelessbeclandestine workers.Thismaybeasignificantgroup.ipprresearchsuggeststhatasmallbutsignificant proportionofnon-EUstudentsworkfulltime(whichispotentiallyincontraventionoftheir visaconditions),andthatasignificantminorityofworkersfromEUaccessioncountriesmay befailingtoregisterwiththeWorkersRegistrationSchemeasrequired.Clandestineworkers couldnumberuptoanadditional165,000migrantswhoareinsomesense‘irregular’,not includingasylumseekerswithoutstandingclaimswhomaybeworkingincontraventionof restrictionsplacedonthem.3 Considerableuncertaintyremains,butthetotalnumberofirregularmigrantsintheUK certainlyrunsintomanyhundredsofthousandsofpeople.

WhatarethecostsandbenefitsofirregularmigrationintheUK? TherehasbeenrelativelylittledebateabouttheimpactsofirregularmigrationontheUK economy.Butapopulationofthissizemusthavesignificantimpactsonthecountry,with thenatureoftheseimpactsdirectlyaffectedbytheirregularstatusofthemigrants concerned. Althoughsomemigrantswhocouldbedefinedasirregularreceivesomelimitedgovernment support,andothersarehelpedbytheirowncommunitiesorbycharities,ahighproportion ofirregularmigrantswillbeworkingtosurvive(indeedforsome,itisworkingthat constitutestheir‘irregularity’,assetoutabove).Therefore,irregularmigrantsformapartof thelabourmarket,andhaveanimpactonit.Theyarecontributing,probablysignificantly,to theeconomy. Evidencefromsurveysandqualitativeresearchsuggeststhatirregularmigrantsmainlywork inconstruction,agriculture,textiles,hotelsandrestaurants,cleaning,careworkanddomestic work.Generally,wecansaythatirregularmigrantslargelyworkinlow-skilled,low-paidjobs. Theyoftenworkinthesamesectorsasrecently-arrivedlegalmigrants,butremaininthose sectorsforlongerthanotherworkers. 1.GordonI,ScanlonK,TraversTandWhiteheadC(2009)EconomicimpactonLondonandtheUKofan earnedregularisationofirregularmigrantsintheUK.InterimReportfromLSELondon:GreaterLondon Authority,availableatwww.london.gov.uk/mayor/publications/2009/03/earned-amesty-interim.jsp 2.WoodbridgeJ(2005) SizingtheUnauthorised(Illegal)MigrantPopulationintheUnitedKingdomin 2001 HomeOfficeOnlineReport29/05,London:HomeOffice,availableat www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/rdsolr2905.pdf 3.HigherEducationStatisticsAgencydatafor2007/08showthattherewere229,640non-EUstudents inUKhighereducationinstitutions.LabourForceSurveydatasuggestthataround6.5percentofthis group(roughly15,000)areworkingfulltime,andthattherewere697,000peoplefromEUaccession countriesintheUKin2008.ipprsurveydatasuggestthatupto22percentofthisgroup(roughly 150,000)maynotberegisteredundertheWorkerRegistrationScheme.

6

ippr|IrregularMigration:Anipprupdate

Italsoseemstobethecasethatmanyirregularmigrantsworkinsectorsthathavemany hard-to-fillvacanciesandtroubleretainingstaff.Thissuggeststhatirregularmigrantsmay makeasignificanteconomiccontributionbyallowingfirmstoovercomebottleneckscaused byrecruitmentproblems.Inparticular,irregularmigrantsmaymakeasignificantcontribution tosmallbusinessesthatrelyonamigrantworkforce,butwhomayhavelimitedaccessto legalmigrantworkers(forexample,iftheycannotaffordthecostsofsponsoringaworker). Evenasemploymentdeclinesinarecession,somesectorsandfirmswillfacerecruitment problemsandmigrantswillcontinuetoplayanimportantroleintheUKlabourmarket. Evidencegenerallyshowsthatmigrationhasverylittleimpactonwagesoremploymentrates forlocalworkers.However,thevulnerablesituationofirregularmigrantsmeansthatthey maybemorewillingtoacceptlowwages.Thishasledtofearsthatirregularmigrationmight haveanegativeimpactonwagesincircumstanceswhereregularmigrationdoesnot. Thelackofreliabledatamakesitverydifficulttodrawfirmconclusionsonthispoint.Itis possiblethatirregularmigrationdoesdrivedownwagesinsomesectors,butitiscertainly notaforegoneconclusion.Notallirregularmigrantsareworkingforlowwages,andthose whoare(particularlybelowtheminimumwage)maybedoinglowproductivityjobsthat wouldotherwisenotexist.Inaddition,theimpactthatirregularmigrantsarehavingon wagesotherthantheirownislimitedtoacertainextentbytheNationalMinimumWage (NMW),whichprotectsUK-bornandlegalmigrantworkerswhoareabletoclaimtheir employmentrights.IneffecttheNMWsegmentsthelabourmarketandreducestheimpact oflowwagesforthoseworkingbelowitonthoseworkingaboveit. AlthoughmanyirregularmigrantsintheUKwork,theirpotentialeconomiccontributionis reducedbytheirirregularstatus.Forexample,someirregularmigrantswillbeworkingwell belowtheirlevelofqualification/skillsbecausetheyonlyhaveaccesstoalimitedrangeof jobs.Theyarealsomorelikelythanotherlow-skilledworkerstobetrappedatthislevelof workbecauseemployersofirregularmigrantsarelesslikelytoinvestintraining,andirregular migrantsusuallyhavelimitedaccesstopublicly-fundedtraining(includingEnglishlanguage tuition). Irregularityalsohassocialcosts.Thesearemostobviouslybornebyirregularmigrants themselves,astheyliveinconstantuncertainty,ofteninpoverty,withoutproperaccessto services,insituationsofextremevulnerability.Theirchildrenarelikelytosuffertoo–the longertheirparentsremaininirregularitythemorerestrictedtheirlifechanceswillbe. However,irregularityalsoimpactsoncommunitiesandsocietyasawhole.Irregularityposes challengesforintegrationandcommunitycohesion,andattheextremeithascrimeand securityimplicationsifitresultsinsocialdivision. Thecontributionofirregularmigrantstothepublicpurseisalsoreducedbythefactoftheir irregularity.Becausedataonirregularmigrantsislimited,anyfirmfiguresaredifficultto comeby,butweestimatethattheUK’sirregularmigrantswouldpaywellinexcessof£1 billionoftaxperyeariftheyworkedinthelegalandregulareconomy,andpossibly substantiallymore.4 AlthoughtheGovernmentsavesmoneybecauseirregularmigrantsare entitledtoveryfewpublicservicesandbenefits,wethinkitunlikelythatthesavingsmade

4.Thisfigureisestimatedassumingthefollowing:thereare725,000irregularmigrantsintheUK(LSE centralestimate);theproportionofirregularmigrantsofworkingageisthesameasfornon-EUmigrants intheUK;theemploymentrateofirregularmigrantsisthesameastheemploymentrateofnon-EU migrantsofworkingageintheUK;allirregularmigrantsearntheNationalMinimumWage.

7

ippr|IrregularMigration:Anipprupdate

herearegreaterthanthefiscallossesresultingfromtheirirregularstatus,giventheirhigh employmentrates.Also,irregularmigrants,althoughlimitedintheirentitlements,are sometimesusingpublicservicesbutofteninappropriately–forinstance,usingAccidentand EmergencydepartmentsbecausetheyarenotregisteredwithaGP,puttingstrainonsome serviceswhichcouldbealleviatedweretheyentitledtonormalaccess.Inaddition,new pathwaystolegalstatuscouldrequiremigrantstobeemployed,and/orlimittheiraccessto somepublicbenefitsandservices(seebelow).

Isitbecomingmoredifficulttobeanirregularmigrantandhowisthe Governmentresponding? OurresearchsuggeststhatlifeforirregularmigrantsintheUKisbecomingmoredifficult. Soon-to-be-publishedipprresearchcarriedoutamongmigrantswhohavereturnedhome afterspendingtimeintheUKsuggeststhattheimpactoftougherimmigrationrulesisbeing felt,andthatitisbecomingmoreuncomfortabletoliveandworkillegallyinthiscountry. However,thisisnotnecessarilyleadingtoirregularmigrantsgivingupandgoinghome.In fact,fearoftheauthoritiesandafeelingthatiftheyleavetheUKtheywillneverbeableto returnisleadingtosomeirregularmigrantsstayingintheUKwhentheymightotherwise returnhome.Ourresearchshowsthatifmigrantsarerelativelyfreetocomeandgo,much migrationistemporaryandcircular,whilehavingirregularstatusmakesmigrantsmorelikely tostayintheUKlong-term. Noristhereisanysignthatdenyingsupporttoasylumover-stayers,therebyforcingmany intodestitutionorclandestinework,ispushinguplevelsofreturnsignificantly.In2007,after massiveinvestment,thereweresome28,000enforcedremovalsandvoluntarydepartures, up9percenton2006. Thelogicbehindcurrentpolicyinitiativesappearstobethatirregularmigrationhastobe eliminated.ButdeportingallirregularmigrantsfromtheUKisnotrealistic.Basedonthe latestUKBorderAgencyfigures,weestimatethecostofremovingallirregularmigrantsto beupto£12billion(excludingsupportandaccommodationcosts).5 Andatpresentrates,it wouldtakenearly25yearstoremovethecurrentpopulationofirregularmigrants.6 Onotherhand,neitherdoessimplytoleratingasubstantialirregularmigrantpopulation,with allthenegativeconsequencesthathasforvulnerablemigrantsandwidersociety,seema crediblepolicy.Acivilisedgovernmentcannotturnablindeyetotheexistenceofhundredof thousandsofhighlyvulnerableandmarginalisedpeoplelivingwithinitsborders.

HowshouldtheGovernmentrespondtoirregularmigration? Webelievethatabetterobjectiveforpolicywouldbetominimisethecostsofirregularity andmaximisethecontributionsofirregularmigrantstotheUK.Agovernmentresponseto irregularmigrationneedstoachievetwothings:

•Reducetheflowofirregularmigrantsthroughbothdecreasedsupplyanddemand •Dealwiththeexistingpopulationofirregularmigrantsinahumaneandsensibleway.

5.BasedondatafromManagementofAsylumApplications bytheUKBorderAgency(January2009) showingthecostsofremovals(excludingaccommodationandsupportcosts)tobebetween£7,900and £17,000,andLSEcentralestimateof725,000irregularmigrantsintheUK. 6.BasedonControlofImmigration:Statistics (HomeOffice2007)showing28,000returnsin2007 (excluding‘attheborder’returns),andLSEcentralestimateof725,000irregularmigrantsintheUK.

8

ippr|IrregularMigration:Anipprupdate

Policiestoreducethesupplyofirregularmigrantsshouldinclude:

•Encouragingpotentialirregularmigrantstostayathomethroughtargeted developmentsupportinkeysourcecountries(separately,andinadditionto,existing internationaldevelopmentprogrammes);andimprovinginformationforpotential migrants.

•Movingsomeirregularmigrantsintolegalchannelsby:makingcompliancewiththe ruleseasierforthosewhoarealreadylegallyabletoworkintheUK,includingby endingtherequirementformigrantsfromEUaccessionstatestoregisterunderthe WorkerRegistrationScheme;expandingthelegalopportunitiestoworkforthose whoarelegallyresident;andexpandinglegalroutestoentertheUK(particularlyfor low-skilledmigrants).

•Strengtheningbordercontrols,particularlywithrespecttosmugglingandtrafficking. •Enforcingorencouragingreturnbyworkingwithirregularmigrantsandtrusted agenciesonhumanereturnprogrammes;developingvoluntaryreturnpackages;and developingcircularmigrationprojectsthatallowsomeirregularmigrantstoreturnto theUKlegallyinthefuture. Policiestoreducethedemandforirregularmigrantsshouldinclude:

•Makingcompliancewiththeruleseasierforemployersbyprovidingthemwithbetter information;andmakinglegalimmigrationschemesmoreflexibleandresponsiveto theneedsoftheeconomy(particularlyforlow-skilledworkers).

•Rigorouslyenforcingemploymentregulationstodealwiththoseemployerswho knowinglyemployirregularmigrantsinordertobreakemploymentlaw,including enablingirregularmigrantstoreporttheiremployerswithoutfacingimmigration penalties.

•Tacklingsmugglingandtraffickinghead-onbytargetingthosewhoexploitsmuggled ortraffickedmigrantsintheUK. Webelievethatasetofmeasuressuchasthesewouldreducethenumberofirregular migrantsinthefuture.Governmentpoliciesneedtobebroadandvariedasindividualefforts (forexampletoremoveandreturnirregularmigrants)willnotsucceedunlesssupportedby othermeasures.However,eventhekindofbroadapproachthatweadvocateherewouldnot resolvethethornyquestionofhowtorespondtotheexistingpopulationofirregular migrantsintheUK. Inourviewitissensibletoconsiderwaysinwhichirregularmigrantscanmoveoutof irregularityandcontributemorefullytotheeconomyandtotheircommunities.TheUK shouldlookatwaysthatirregularmigrantscould‘earn’theirwaybacktoregularstatus. Whileregularisationmaynotbewhollydesirable,thealternativesseemevenlessso– removingalltheUK’sirregularmigrantsisnotfeasible,andtheGovernmentcannotchoose toignoretheproblem.Crucially,regularisationshouldonlybeconsideredincombination withthekindsofmeasuressetoutabove,whichwouldsignificantlyreducetheflowof irregularmigrantsintotheUK. Wedonotsupportablanketamnesty,orforallirregularmigrantstobeallowedtosettlein theUKpermanently.TheGovernmentshouldconsiderarangeofoptionsforirregular migrants,includingindefiniteleavetoremainforsome,butalsotemporaryvisas,andreturn packagesthatallowirregularmigrantstoreturntotheircountriesoforiginwithoutlosingthe optiontocomebacktotheUKinfuture.Someroutestoregularisationcouldrequire migrantstobeinwork,andcouldlimittheiraccesstosomepublicservicesandbenefitsuntil appropriatecontributionthresholdshavebeenreached(aswithmanycurrentprovisionsfor legalmigrants).

9

ippr|IrregularMigration:Anipprupdate

Insomecases,enforcedremovalistherightresponse.Regularisationwouldgivemorescope fortheGovernmenttoconcentrateonremovingthemostundesirablemigrants,suchas thosewhohavecommittedseriouscrimesorthreatennationalsecurity. Regularisationshouldbe‘earned’andtheGovernmentcouldapplysomeoftheideasithas proposedfor‘earnedcitizenship’.Factorsthatcouldbetakenintoaccountareanirregular migrant’srecordintheUK(suchasworkorcontributiontothecommunity),anysupport theymighthavefromareputablesponsoringorganisation,andlengthofstayintheUK;as wellasfamilyandhumanitarianconsiderations.