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Edited and Published by Shri S.S.Nahar, Secretary General, Indian Roads Congress, IRC HQ, Sector-6, R.K.Puram, Kama Koti Marg, New Delhi - 110 022. Edited and Published ShriIndian S.K. Roads Nirmal, Secretary General, Indian Congress, IRC HQ,Okhla Sector-6, R.K.Area, Puram, Printed by Shri S.S.Nahar on behalf by of the Congress at M/s. I G Printers PvtRoads Ltd., 104, DSIDC Complex, Industrial Phase-I, New Delhi - 110 020. Kama Koti Marg, New Delhi - 110 022. Printed by Shri S.K. Nirmal on behalf of the Indian Roads Congress at M/s. Aravali Printers & Publishers Pvt. Ltd.

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Indian Highways Volume : 47 Number : 2 ● FEBRUARY, 2019 ● ISSN 0376-7256 Indian Roads Congress Founded : On 10th December, 1934

Contents 

From the Editor's Desk



Highlights of the International Seminar on “Construction and Maintenance of Rigid Paement–Current



Practices and Way Forward”



IRC Technical Committees Meeting Schedule for February, 2019



Advertisements



Technical Papers



Forensic Engineering of Cable Bridges- an Innovative Approach -A Way Forward



By Satander Kumar



Smart Transportation System Citing Best Practices and its Relevance in Indian Cities



By Prof. P.K.Sarkar & Dr. Ravi Sekhar Chalumuri



Numerical Slope Stability Analysis of Selected Natural and Manmade Slopes



By Sukumar Saha



Quantitative Risk Assessment– Road Project Preparation Perspective



By Subir Kumar Podder



New/Revised Publications of IRC–NEW ARRIVALS

49



MoRT&H Circular

50



Tender Notices

4-5 6-14

22 2, 14, 15, & 54

16

23

32

39

51-53

Publisher & Editor: S.K. Nirmal, Secretary General, IRC E-mail: [email protected] Headquarter: IRC Bhawan, Kama Koti Marg, Sector-6, R.K. Puram, New Delhi-110 022. Phone No.: +91-11-26171548 (Admn.), 23387140 & 23384543 (Membership), 23387759 (Sale), 26185273 (Tech. Papers, Indian Highways and Tech. Committees) No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means without prior written permission from the Secretary General, IRC. The responsibility of the contents and the opinions expressed in Indian Highways is exclusively of the author(s) concerned. IRC and the Editor disclaim responsibility and liability for any statements or opinion, originality of contents and of any copyright violations by the authors. The opinion expressed in the papers and contents published in the Indian Highways do not necessarily represent the views of the Editor or IRC.

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Printed at: M/s Aravali Printers & Publishers Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi-110020

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FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK INTEGRAL BRIDGE An Integral Bridge (IB) is a structure where there are no bearings over the abutments and no expansion joints in the superstructure. Integral Bridges worldwide have shown saving in initial cost and life cycle cost through reduced maintenance. As Integral Bridges have demonstrated better performance under earthquake loads, their use needs to be encouraged. In addition, Integral Bridges eliminate expansion joints and provide better riding quality thereby adding comfort to the road users. Because of advantage of reduced initial cost and maintenance cost and better service performance/riding quality, the engineers worldwide in countries like USA, UK, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, China etc. are preferring to use Integral Bridges. In UK, bridges up to a length of 60 m are mandatory to be of integral type. However, because of complexity in design of long Integral Bridges, their use is generally limited in length to about 100 m. Integral bridges are characterized by monolithic connection between the superstructure and the substructure (piers and abutments), unlike the traditional bridge construction, where the superstructure is supported on bearings and transfers all the forces to substructure and foundation through bearings. Provision of expansion joints and bearings in traditional bridges allows movement and rotation of the bridge deck, without transferring any force to abutment/pier and foundation due to thermal/ creep/shrinkage induced movements. In case of IB’s, the deck carries the movement of deck to the abutment as well as to the backfill soil behind the abutment. The approach slab between the bridge end and the pavements accommodate the necessary movements, which leads to a strong soil-structure interaction. Apart from the fully integral solutions without expansion joints or bearings, it is also possible to have structural solution, where only the expansion joints at abutments are omitted, but the bearings are provided. The back-wall portion of the substructure is directly connected with the superstructure in such case and the superstructure, back-wall and approach slab moves together ‘towards’ and ‘away’ from the backfill during the thermal expansion and contraction. Such solutions, known as ‘SemiIntegral Bridges’ (SIB’s), are often appropriate particularly for the rehabilitation of bridges. Advantages of using Integral Bridges are added redundancy, improved seismic performance, improved structural reliability, improved riding-quality and noise reduction, improved durability due to absence of expansion joints, reduced maintenance cost, reduced traffic disruption required for change of joints, useful concept for strengthening of existing bridges, etc. Disadvantages of adopting Integral Bridge concept are limited span range due to restraints to movements caused by thermal, creep and shrinkage, chances of cracking in case of differential settlement between foundations resting on varying strata or varying scour conditions in case of river bridges, complex structural analysis as it involves soil-structure interaction.

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FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK The IB’s, are complicated structural systems for design. Apart from considering the primary loads (i,e. dead, live, wind etc.), secondary loads (such as creep, shrinkage, settlement, temperature effects etc.) need also to be considered under serviceability limit state as well as ultimate limit state. Methods of analysis, methods of modelling of structure for analysis, as given in existing code IRC:112 (For reinforced/prestressed concrete structures), IRC:22 (For composite structures) and IRC:24 (For steel structures) will be applicable for integral bridges as well. Linear Elastic analysis may be used for both the serviceability and ultimate limit state. IRC has recently published a new document IRC:SP:115-2018 entitled “Guidelines for Design of Integral Bridges”. These guidelines are applicable to fully Integral Bridges, with structural deck made of steel, concrete or composite construction, including precast and prestressed concrete. These bridges are easier to construct. Time dependent stresses such as creep, shrinkage, settlement and temperature effects are considered in design. More efforts are required in design of such bridges and the benefits are worth the inputs in design. Since literature for their design are available, therefore, bridge engineers may consider adopting integral bridges.

(Sanjay Kumar Nirmal) Secretary General

“Safety first... because accidents last.” “Safety: expect the unexpected” “Chance takers are accident makers.” “Hug your kids at home, but belt them in the car!” “The essence of road safety is to live healthy” “Safety is Key, it is Up To You And Me!”

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON “CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE OF RIGID PAvEMENT–CURRENT PRACTICES AND WAY FORWARD” 18th& 19th january, 2019, NEW DELHI The Indian Roads Congress (IRC) in association with Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH), World Road Congress (PIARC) and Japan Road Association (JRA) organized two days International Seminar on “Construction and Maintenance of Rigid Pavements–Current Practices and Way Forward” on the 18th & 19th January, 2019 at India Habitat Centre, New Delhi. The International Seminar was inaugurated on 18th January, 2019 by lighting the traditional lamp by Shri Toli Basar, President of IRC; Shri B.N. Singh, DG(RD) & SS, MoRTH; Shri Shigeru Kikukawa, VicePresident, PIARC & Board of Member, JRA; Shri I.K. Pandey, ADG, MoRTH & Chairman Technical Committee of Seminar; Shri R.K. Pandey, Member, NHAI & Vice President, IRC; Shri C.P. Joshi, Secretary, PWD, Maharashtra & Vice President, IRC; Shri S.K. Nirmal, Secretary General, IRC; Dr. Michael Darter; Sr. Principal Engineer Applied Research Associate, USA and Dr. Dan G Zollinger, Zachry Dept of Civil Engg, TAMU, USA. The International Seminar was attended by more than 350 Highway Sector Engineers/Professionals/Academicians etc. from various facets from all over the country as well as from abroad and also from multilateral organization like PIARC & JRA etc.

Glimpses of Inaugural Function of the International Seminar

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR

Welcome Address by Shri Toli Basar, President, IRC

Address by Shri B.N. Singh DG(RD) & SS, MoRT&H

The President, IRC in his Speech welcomed all the dignitires and delegates. Further he said that the Indian Roads Congress, is providing an International Forum for sharing of knowledge and pooling of experience on the entire range of subjects dealing with the construction and maintenance of roads; bridges; tunnels and road transportation including technology, equipment, research, planning, finance, organization and all connected policy issues. Over the period of time, the IRC has grown into an Apex professional body of Highway Engineers devoted to the cause of better roads. It is responsible for evolving standards, specifications, codes, manuals etc. on design, construction and maintenance of roads, bridges, tunnels, safety engineering etc. He said technical Sessions in this Seminar will help in sharing experiences, updating knowledge, identifying appropriate technology and revision of the existing specifications, codes of practices and guidelines in the field of rigid pavements. The DG (RD) & SS, MoRT & H extended warm welcome to all the dignitiries on the dais and all particpants of the International Seminar. In his speech he said that the Hon’ble Union Minister of Road Transport & Highways is the great proponent of the Rigid Pavement and he has a very good success story of Bombay-Pune Expressway and that’s why he has been assertive on use of Rigid Pavement since he took the charge of the Ministry. The main purpose of holding this Seminar is to go behind the problem/issues in construction and mantinance of Rigid pavement, discuss & deliberate it in details and also take the opinion of the International Experts. He said that the IRC has come up with the codes for concrete roads and IRC - 58 has been revised five times based on whatever experience we got in that field. Ministry also has its construction Specifications on Rigid Pavement. However, we still have some of the larger challenges and I expect that all the aspects should be deliberated and we come up with the solution. While concluding his speech DG (RD) & SS again welcomed all the prticiapants.

The Vice-President, PIARC Mr. Shigeru Kikukawa delivered his address with an introductory presentation and conveyed good whishes for the success of this two day’s International Seminar. Further he made detailed presentation highlighting activities of PIARC and JRA. Souveinr containg technical papers of national & international key note presenters and also theme wise abstract of technical papers of selected presenters/authors and messages from Hon’ble Minsters, laeders conveying good whishes for the success of this two day’s International Seminar were relesed durining Inagural Function.

Adress by Shri Shigeru Kikukawa Vice-President, PIARC

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR

Releasing of the Sovinour of the Seminar The Secretary General, IRC Shri S.K. Nirmal welcomed all the dignitaries on the dais and off the dais and read a number of messages conveying good whishes for the success of this two day’s International Seminar received from Hon’ble President of India; Hon’ble Vice President of India; Hon’ble Union Minister of Road Transport & Highways, Govt. of India; Hon’ble Ministers of State for Road Transport & Highways, Govt. of India; Hon’ble Minister of Rural Development, Govt. of India. Hon’ble Minister of State for Home Affairs, Govt. of India.The messages of good wishes have also been received from Shri Sanjeev Ranjan, IAS, Chairman, National Highways Authority of India and Shri Y.S. Malik, IAS, Secretary, Road Transport and Highways. At the end Secretary General, IRC delivered Vote of Thank and sincerely expressed his heartiest gratitude to the dignitaries, well-wishers and all who have come from different parts of the country and abroad for their support in making this Seminar a grand success. Shri S.K. Nirmal, Secretary General, IRC Reading out messages and proposing Vote of thanks

During the two days International Seminar a total 28 number of presentations were made under 6 Technical Sessions by the experts from India and abroad representing almost all segments covering the “Construction and Maintenance of Rigid Pavements–Current Practices and Way Forward”. Themewise brief is as under;

View of the dais during Technical Session-1 8

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR First technical session dedicated for theme ‘Palnning and Design of Rigid Pavements’ was Chaired by Shri A.V. Sinha, DG (RD) & SS, MoRT&H (Retd.) and Co-Chaired by Dr Dharamveer Singh, Professor, Civil Engg. Deptt. IIT Bombay. Under this theme following presentations were made: i. K  ey Note presentation on “Design of Reliable and Optimum Concrete Pavements” by Dr. Michael Darter; Sr. Principal Engineer Applied Research Associate, USA ii. “ Methodology Adopted for Construction of Short Paneled Concrete Pavements (SPCP) on High Volume Roads plus Research Findings of IIT Kharagpur” by Shri K Shridhar Reddy; Prof. M. A Reddy of IIT, Kharagpur iii. “ Longitudinal Structural Cracking of Indian Concrete Highways: Cause, Remedy and Prevention”by Shri I. K. Pandey, ADG, MoRTH New DelhI& Shri Binod Kumar; Principal Scientist, CRRI, iv. “ Necessity of Establishing the Built-in Temperature Differential in Concrete Pavements” by Shri V.Jogarao Bulusu; Professor S.Reddy Kusam; Professor M.A Reddy; Late B.B.Pandey; Former Professor & Advisor, IIT, Kharagpur v. “ Current Design, Construction, Quality Control and Maintenance Specifications of Rigid Pavements for National Highways, Air Field Pavements, Rural Roads, City Roads” by Shri Satander Kumar; Freelance Consultant and Ex. Scientist CRRI.

A View of the Dais during Session-2 Second technical session dedicated for theme ‘Construction, Materials and Technology for Rigid Pavements’ was Chaired by Shri I.K. Pandey, ADG, MoRT&H and Co-Chaired by Shri S.K.Nirmal, SG, IRC. Under this theme following presentations were made: i. Key Note presentation by Shri R.K.Jain, Former Chief Engineer, PWD Haryana ii. “ A Sustainable Approach to Construction of Low-Traffic Volume Concrete Roads Using C&D Aggregates and Supplementary Cementitious Materials”by Shri Vaibhav Chawla; Shri Amit Trivedi, NCCBM & Shri V.V. Arora HOC-CDR NCCBM, Ballabhgarh. iii. “ Influence of Microsilica on Pavement Quality Concrete Mixes and Rigid Pavement Design” by Shri Dinesh Ganvir, Sr. Scientist,CRRI; Shri Binod Kumar,Principal Scientist, CRRI& Shri Brajesh Malviya; GM, M/s Elkem South Asia Pvt. Ltd, Nagpur iv. “ Pune City experience with Thin White Topping Technology for Urban Roads” by Shri Vikas V. Thakar, MD, M/s Pavetech Consultants, Pune. v. “ Utilization of Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag in Pavement Quality Concrete” by Ms. L. Sengupta;VP , M/s JSW Cement Ltd, Mumbai

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR

A view of the Dais during Session 3 Third session of Panel Discussion on theme ‘Experiences of Rigid Pavements’ was Chaired by Shri B.N. Singh, DG(RD) & SS, MoRT&H and Co-Chaired by Mr. Shigeru Kikukawa. Vice President, PIARC & Member JRA. During panel discussing following eminent panelist shared their experiences, recommendations on Rigid Pavement. i. Shri A.V. Sinha, Former DG(RD)& SS, MoRT&H ii. Dr. Dan G Zollinger,ZachryDeptof CivilEngg, TAMU,USA iii. Dr. Michael Darter, Sr Principal Engineer Applied Research Associate, USA iv. Shri R.K.Pandey, Member NHAI v. Shri R.K. Jain, chief Engineer (Retd.), Haryana PWD vi. Col. A.K. Basin, President, M/s Oriental Structures Engineers Pvt. Ltd. vii. Shri A.K. Swami Associate Professor.Department of Civil Engineering. IIT Delhi On Second day fourth technical session dedicated for ‘Case Studies of Rigid Pavements’ was Chaired by Shri C.P. Joshi, Vice President, IRC, Secretary (Roads), PWD, Maharashtra and Co-Chaired by Shri D.O. Tawade, Member, NHAI. Under this theme following presentations were made:

A view of the Dais during Session 4 i. K  ey Note Presentation on “Evaluation of Durability of Concrete Pavement laid over 40 Years Ago and its Design Method” by Shri Manato TAKEMURA ,Dy Manager M/s East Expressway Company Ltd (NEXCO-East) Japan ii. “ Sustainability of Rigid Pavements & A Case Study of HospetBellari Road Project” by Shri V N Heggade, Technical Director, GECPL, Mumbai 10

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR iii. “ Maintenance of Concrete Pavement by Microsurfacing Technology” by Dr P K Jain Chief, Scientist and Advisor (Retd.), FPD, CSIR-CRRI ,ShriAnirudh Lal; & Shri Rohit iv. “Construction Experience of Small Paneled Concrete Overlay on Existing Bituminous Pavement” by Shri V.JogaraoBulusu; Professor S.ReddyKusam; Late Shri B.B.Pandey; Former Professor, IIT Kharagpur v. “High Volume Flyash in PQC Concrete using Geopolymer Technology on Cost Effective Way- Case Study” by Dr. Swapnil P Wanjari, Asst. Prof. ; Ms Unnati Aggarwal, Shri JatinChandna; VNIT Nagpur

A view of the Dais during Session 5 Fifth technical session dedicated for theme ‘Repair, Maintenance and Rehabilitation of Rigid Pavements’ was Chaired by Dr. Dan Zollinger, Zachry Deptt of Civil Engg, TAMU, USA and Co-Chaired by Shri V.V. Arora HOD-CDR NCCBM, Ballabhgarh. Under this theme following presentations were made: i. K  eynote Presentation on “Precast Concrete Pavement -A Fast and Durable Strategy" by Dr Mehdi Pravini, Pavement Specialist, Dept of Transportation California, USA ii. “Innovative & Effective Repair Methodology of Longitudinal Joint Widening in Rigid Pavement”by Shri Raman Kumar, Director (Tech.); Shri Sharad Kumar Singh, GM ,M/s Oriental Structural Engg. Pvt.Ltd.ND; Shri J.K. Das; Associate Director; Shri BidurkantJha, GM ,M/s LEA Associates South Asia Pvt.Ltd., New Delhi iii. “Scaling Problem on Surface of Newly Constructed Concrete Pavement and its Repair” by Dr Rakesh Kumar, Head & Sr. Principal Scientist, RPD ,CSIR-CRRI-Mathura Road, New Dehli iv. “Whitetopping: An Environment-Friendly Pavement Rehabilitation Strategy for Urban Roads” by Ms. Swati Roy Maitra; ProfessorK.Sudhakar Reddy ,IIT Kharagpur: Shri Ramachandra, Vice Head (Technical) M/s Ultratech Cement Ltd.,Mumbai v. “Repair, Maintenance And Rehabilitation Of Concrete Roads” by Er. Vivek Naik, National President, Indian Concrete Institute

A view of the Dais during Session 6

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR Sixth technical session dedicated for theme ‘Health Monitoring of Rigid Pavements ’ was Chaired by Dr. Michael Darter, Sr. Principal Engineer, Applied Research Associate, USA and Co-Chaired Shri R.K. Pandey, Member (Project), NHAI. Under this theme following presentations were made: i. K  ey Note Presentation on “Role of Curing and Joint Sealing in Pcc Pavement Design and Performance” by Dr Dan G Zollinger,Zachry Dept of Civil Engg, TAMU,USA ii. " Determination of Curling Stresses in an Instrumented Concrete Pavement Slab” by Shri Binod Kumar, Principal Scientist, CRRI, New Delhi. iii. T  yre Bursting: The Role of Concrete Pavement Surface Condition” by Shri Binod Kumar; Principal Scientist, CRRI, New Delhi& Shri S. K. Nirmal, Secretary General, IRC, New Delhi

iv. “Condition  Evaluation ,Inspection Criteria for Highways with Rigid Pavement” by Dr. Sanjay Wakchaure; SE ,MoRT&H, New Delhi;Shri Ajit Singh; (JE) CPWD, JNU Sub- Division , New Delhi; Professor K.N. Jha, IIT Delhi. v. “ Alignment of Dowel Bars in Concrete Roads Requirements and Verification” by Shri Dirk Anke MIT Mess- und , Dresden/Germany ( presenated by Shri R K Jain) vi. “ Pavement Analysis- The ACN-PCN Method” by Mr. Supriyo Pradhan; Mr. AK Nanda; National Manager of Structural Monitoring Instrumentation, Shekhar Verma; Sr. General Manager M/s Aimil Ltd New Delhi

A view of the Valedictory Session In the evening Valeictory function and International Seminar was held and Shri Sanjeev Ranjan, IAS, Chairman was the Chief Guest for this function. Shri S K Niraml, Secretray General, IRC welcomed Chief guest by presenting flower and IRC momento and also express deep gratitude to him. 12

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR

Shri I.K. Pandey, ADG, MoRTH Read Out Recommdations

Shri Sanjeev Ranjan, IAS, Chairman, NHAI Delivering Valedictory Address

Shri I.K. Pandey, ADG, MoRTH & Chairman Technical Committee of Seminar welcomed all the dignitaries on the dais and off the dais read out recommdations of two days deliberations for consideartion and adoption of all satkeholders. In the end of his address he greet the organisers and participants for the grand success of the international seminar.

In his valedictory address, Shri Sanjiv Ranjan, Chairman, NHAI complimented IRC for convening an International Seminar on most relevant Theme - Rigid Pavement. He shared his experience of one of his visit with Shri R.K. Pandey to U.P. where he found that part of rigid pavement is durable and sustainable than Flexible Pavement. He further said he heard certain discussion amongst delegates before the valedictory Session and took the note of in-depth design and construction complications in Rigid pavement. He further elaborated that recommendations read out by Shri I.K. Pandey may be of great use for delegates in taking policy decision and construction activities in future. He thanked the organizers for inviting him on valedictory session.

A view of the Audiances During International Seminar

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR

Glimpses of Cultural Programme

A view of Audiences During Cultural Programme

A Post Session Technical Tour to site visit to Eastern Peripheral Expressway (EPE) & Yamuna Expressway was also organized for delegates.

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TECHNICAL PAPER FORENSIC ENGINEERING OF CABLE BRIDGES- AN INNOVATIVE APPROACH -A way forward

Satander Kumar* abstruct Forensic engineering in case of cable bridges is the investigation of materials required for their, components made from them, structures or components that fail or do not operate or function as intended, causing personal injury or damage to the property or alternatively it means offering evaluation, reporting, and expert witness testimony considering prevailing or accidental Geotechnical and Environmental conditions. Causes of failure may be of deterioration of cables, anchorages, fluttering of deck slab due to high wind speed, heavy rains or poor workmanship, geological problems etc. These cable bridges must systematically be monitored with instrumentation (health monitoring) since the inception of these bridges (like in case of signature bridge in Delhi) and protected them from the risk of corrosion of cables, loosening of anchors and vibration etc. Efforts shall be made to have consequences of failure to be dealt critically besides retracing processes and procedures leading to accidents in operation of construction machinery before, during construction and after operation with a view to improve performance or life of a component, or to assist in determining the facts of failure and its solution. There are different types of suspension bridges (Punalur, Kerala, Laxman Jhula, Tehri Dam, Ramjhula etc) and cable bridges (Vidyasagar and Nivedita Setu WB, Bandra Worli Seal Link, Yamuna Bridge Allahabad, Akkar Bridge Sikkim, Signature bridge in Delhi, cable bridges in J&K and Indore etc) in India. The paper here describes problems experienced in India and abroad in such/similar bridges and their solution, in context of finding real causes of failure of cable bridges.

1. Introduction There has been rapid increase in technologies in concrete and composite construction during the past 2-3 decades. Concrete is the second most widely used construction material for civil engineering structures in the world. Nevertheless, over the years, special types of cement, concrete and admixtures have been in use in fibre reinforced concrete, polymer concrete, high density concrete, highstrength concrete, high performance concrete, ultra high performance concrete etc. enabling to make a right choice. A keen engineer conscious of quality and economy of these diversified materials and technologies have realized concept of forensic engineering that this require proper understanding to derive maximum benefit like strength, durability, appearance and such other essential qualities of concrete along with economy to avoid any accident failure of the vehicles with structures or alone as structure. *

Consultant, Ex. Scientist, CRRI, D 24, Amar Colony, New Delhi 110024

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Being a product made mostly in the field, where varying conditions exist, understanding of variations and their influence of organizing strict control on quality and ensuring total satisfaction is of paramount importance with better performance. It is extremely difficult to keep pace with the advancements in concrete technology and translate them for useful purposes on the construction projects. There is a great need of forensic engineering in transportation technology with current knowledge of standards. 2. Proposed New Technologies and Materials Partly or Fully for Making Cable Bridges 2.1. Following innovative technologies (some of which partly or fully may be tried/used in cable bridges) not only will make the environment green but will make the project more cost effective besides many added technical advantages:

TECHNICAL PAPER 2.1.1 Amorphous Metallic Fibre Reinforced Concrete: As compared to conventional concrete, steel fibre as macro fibres reinforced concrete combining with fibres amorphous metallic fibres or micro fibres reinforced concrete) with very high bonding characteristics , a substantial increase in flexural strength (up to maximum of 6.4 MPa at 28 days) (about 50% more than conventional), improve ductility, and post cracking performance resulting in ductile regime in the load deflection response of the concrete. It has been reported that this hybrid mix consists of both fibres about 15kg/ m3 allowing very thin sections.1 2.1.2 Accelerated Bridge Construction (ABC) and Use of Dowel bars in Connections: In this utilizing precast bridge construction in planned manner to promote accelerated bridge construction in high seismic regions, connections between pre cast I shaped Girders and Precast Inverted Tee Cap Beam are provided with ducts through the interface between the girder bottom flange and the lower regions of the cap beam and then grouted in place. (Caltrans). 2.1.3 Incrementally Pre-stressed Concrete: Further in Korea IPC (Incrementally Pre-stressed concrete) girder, is in practice widely with gaining potential advantages of short girder height, light weight, the smallest span to depth ratio, and economical girder of all kinds of bridges. 2.1.4 Cement-Reduced Concrete Technology: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) (HS Muller) and Institute of Concrete Structures and Building Materials (IMB) Karlsruhe (M Haist and M Vogel) in Germany developed cementreduced concrete technology independent of cementitious materials by using design process centre on packing optimization of the granular mix constituents, thereby reducing the cement content by nearly two thirds.2 2.1.5 High Strength Self-Compacted Concrete: In China high strength self-compacted concrete (M 70/C 70) is being used with suitable dosage of super adsorbent polymer (SAP) which shows much better performance than the use of shrinkagereducing admixtures prepared with expansive agent. The slump is 240 mm and the flow was 700 mm and flow loss was less than 10%. This material has been used in highest building more than 600 m in China. 2.1.6 White Silica Fume Produced from Zirconium

Industry: In Italy, very high performance concrete/ mortar has been in use having compressive strength of 60 MPa at 1 day and 100 M Pa and flexural strength 10 MPa at 28 day. 2.1.7 Nano silica: It is recent addition which is synthesized artificially in powder or colloidal form. By addition of 0.2 kg of concrete, nano silica fume gives same effect as of 1 kg of silica fume. In other words, increase in strength is about 3 times than the increase with silica fume when content was about 5-7% by weight of cement. Its main product i.e. ultra-high performance concrete has minimum compressive strength of 150 MPa (ACI sub-committee 239-A) and has less pre-stress loss in pre-stressed girder. With this strength of concrete the cover will not be less and there is more contribution of transition zone than conventional concrete. 2.1.8 Current Standards on Cement and Aggregates: IS: 16415-2015 on composite cement containing slag, fly ash and some portion of cement, IS; 2692015 on all Ordinary Portland cements, IRC: 109 on thin dia piles and IS:383- 2016 on aggregate specification, 3. Brief about Forensic Engineering for Investigating and Evaluation of Materials for Cable Bridges 3.1. Forensic engineering may be considered to be helpful in supporting new technologies, as forensic engineering helps in avoiding future failures of structures thereby saving a lot of natural materials, cement and potential energy required for their manufacturing or getting into the shape of their use. 3.1.1 History of Forensic Engineering: In the 18th century, the term civil engineering (Second oldest engineering) next to Military engineering (1st oldest Engineering) was coined to incorporate all things civilian as opposed to military engineering. The first civil engineer was John Smeaton (Father of civil engineering), who constructed the Eddy stone Lighthouse during 17th century. As the field of engineering has evolved over time, so has the field of forensic engineering. Early examples include investigation of bridge failures such as the Tay rail bridge disaster of 1879 in Scotland and the Dee bridge disaster of 1847 in Chester. 3.1.2 Forensic engineering is the investigation of materials, products, cable bridges or components

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TECHNICAL PAPER that fail or do not operate or function as intended, causing personal injury or damage to property. The consequences of failure are dealt with by the law of product liability. The field also deals with retracing processes and procedures leading to accidents in operation of vehicles or machinery. The subject is applied most commonly in civil law cases, although it may be of use in criminal law cases. Generally the purpose of a Forensic engineering investigation is to locate cause or causes of failure with a view to improve performance or life of a component, or to assist a court in determining the facts of an accident. It can also involve investigation of intellectual property claims, especially patents. 3.1.3 Alternatively, Forensic engineering means offering evaluation critically, reporting, and expert witness testimony considering accidental geotechnical and environmental conditions with regard to cable bridges. Vital to the field of forensic engineering is the process of investigating and collecting data related to the materials, structures or components that failed. This involves inspections, collecting evidence, measurements, developing models, obtaining case studies, and revising future design. 3.1.4 As per National Academy of Forensic Engineering Florida, Forensic Engineering is "the application of the art and science of engineering in matters which are in, or may possibly relate to, the jurisprudence system, inclusive of alternative dispute resolution. “ 3.1.5

There are Guidelines for Forensic Engineering

Practice 2012 by ASCE, USA which describes the technical, ethical, business, and legal components of the professional practice in forensic civil engineering in the United States. (http://www. asce.org/templates/publications-book-detail. aspx3D7049). These may be applied in cable bridges with some modification. 3.1.6 As per Wikipedia, Forensic engineering is the investigation of materials, products, structures or components that fail or do not operate or function as intended, causing personal injury or damage to property. 3.1.7. ASTM (2015) is making the Case for a New Main Committee on Forensic Engineering (Adele Bassett). Forensic engineers depend on their education, training and experience to investigate 18

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incidents that result in claims or litigation. A new ASTM International main committee is creating standards that will provide guidelines for experts who investigate product defect, vehicular, electrical and industrial process incidents. 3.1.8 Now, there are two International Journals on Forensic Engineering that is “International Journal of Forensic Engineering” and “International Journal of Forensic Engineering and Management”. Haijian Shi of Pepco Holdings in Washington DC and Kong Fah Tee of the Department of Civil Engineering, at the University of Greenwich, in Kent, UK, explain that barriers can protect property and save lives during hurricane season. Flood walls, gates and joints are the mainstays of their design; however budgetary constraints, geographical limitations and constructability often limit the implementation of the most effective barriers in some regions. 3.1.9 President of the Board of Engineers Malaysia reported in May 2004 in the Bulletin that no one would want to see a structure collapse or fail, but the fact remains that failures do occur. When a structure collapses, the finger is invariably pointed at the structural engineer. But what is needed in the first place is to determine the exact cause of the failure through forensic engineering. The goal of a forensic programme is to positively identify the sequence of events leading to ultimate failure. Within the broad field of engineering, the practice of forensic engineering involves the investigation of failures of structures. Forensic engineers examine broken parts and bring together a list of probable failure mechanisms to be investigated. The final step in forensic engineering is to use analytical and testing tools to confirm the findings of fact. A good forensic engineer will investigate any incident in a structured, scientific manner. He will be skilled in collecting and recording evidence in a manner that will withstand scrutiny. There is a need to develop this area of forensic engineering. 3.1.10 Considering highway projects, as per FHWA/TX03/1731-3F - The University of Texas at Austin the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) supported a research project on “Development of A Formal Forensic Investigation Procedure for Pavements” designed to develop formal procedures for conducting forensic investigations on failed pavements. The procedure is based on a scientific

TECHNICAL PAPER method that can ensure that future investigations are completed more efficiently and effectively. The main advantages of a successful forensic investigation include (1) determining the cause of the distress, (2) selecting the appropriate repair strategy, (3) determining how fast the distress is propagating, (4) prioritizing distressed pavement sections, (5) improving design practices, and (6) updating construction techniques. 3.1.11 There are 42 engineering colleges which cover Forensic Science and many of them have been introducing Forensic Engineering in India. International Forensic Engineering, Education Department (Govt. of India & Govt. of Maharashtra Regd., ISO 9001-2008 Certified & Regd. with DUNS & U.S. Federal Govt. CCR database); affiliated with bodies recognized, approved and promoted by the Planning Commission, Govt. of India, Indian Parliament etc, BSS NDA Aff. No. MAHA/5097 started Forensic Engineering (2012) on the following topics: i.) Introduction to Forensic Science,  Intro. to Branches of Forensic Science ii.) Introduction to Forensic Experts,  Introduction to Crime Investigation,  Brief information about terminologies related to Forensic Sciences etc… iii.) Forensic Engineering, Fire/Arson Investigation, Vehicle Accidents, etc. 4. Major Cable Bridges In India A cable-stayed bridge has one or more towers to support the bridge deck using the cables, Basically Cable-Stayed Bridges are longer than cantilever bridges and shorter than suspension bridges. There may be extremely high wind speed, highest flood level, severe temperature and relative humidity. Such parameters may be accidently altered from their design values or design limits, such values shall be taken care seriously by the forensic/design engineers (during construction temporary form work or enabled form work and before or after the design life of the structures) with higher factor of safety as compared to conventional bridges considering the above mentioned basic facts of cable bridges both either cable stayed or suspension including extra dosed bridges and very high cost of these bridges. There is a need to regularly health monitoring of Cable Bridges in India, as is being done in case of Signature Bridge by CPWD, M/S Gammon India Limited and MAGEBA. Major of these are listed as under: i.

Rajiv Gandhi Sea Link is one of the most stunning

bridges in India, connect Bandra with Worli and part of the proposed Western Freeway. The Bandra–Worli Sea Link is a civil engineering marvel with 5.6 kilometer long,420 ft high towers which crosses the Arabian Sea. ii. The Second Hooghly Bridge is known as Vidyasagar Setu, A Cable-Stayed bridge over the Hooghly River in West Bengal. Vidyasagar Setu is longest cable–stayed bridge in India and one of the longest in Asia iii. The New Yamuna Bridge is one of the longest cable-stayed bridge in India, connecting the city of Allahabad to its neighborhood of Naini in Allahabad. New Yamuna Bridge is constructed across the Yamuna river. iv. A cable-stayed bridge over Hooghly River next to Vivekananda Setu and marvelous attractions of West Bengal. Nivedita Setu is the first bridge in the country that is a single profile cable-stayed bridge. v. Akkar Bridge is Indias first cable stayed bridge located in Jorethang, Sikkim. The Cable-stayed concrete bridge is built over Rangit River on a single tower. vi. A Cable-Stayed Bridge is located at HaridwarRishikesh Road over Ganges river. Haridwar Cable-Stayed Bridge is Asia’s only bridge that suspends on mere Cables. vii. Raja Bhoj Cable Stay Bridge was inaugurated on 26 May 2017, Connecting Kamla Park to VIP Road Crossing. The 220 metre long cable stay bridge is Madhya Pradesh’s first cable stay bridge on the Upper Lake of Bhopal. viii. Ram Jhula cable-stayed bridge in Nagpur Railway station yard  is a six-lane cable-stayed bridge, recently opens for traffic evening. ix. Surat Cable Stayed Bridge- A cable-stayed bridge connecting Bhavnagar to Bhal region, The bridge that has reduced distance to Bhavnagar by 30 km. x. Kota Chambal Bridge in Kota, Rajasthan over the Chambal River, supported by the National Highways Authority of India just outside the city. Such types of brides shall be constructed in some very serious manners as Crocodiles are there in the Chambal Rivers, the similar accidents shall not happen again in future construction xi. The Chiraiyatand over bridge in Patna xii. Country's highest and 2nd longest span Cable Stayed Bridge built by SP Singla at Basohli in J&K on 24th Dec'2015. xiii. Cable-stayed bridges over the river Kosi between Chhapra and Arrah in Bihar

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TECHNICAL PAPER 5. Case Studies of Forensic Engineering 5.1 Case 1: During Construction of Signature Bridge Problems are being faced in procurement of machineries, materials, Geotechnical problems and skilled manpower etc. The requirement of heavy crane having capacity of lifting 20000 T; Very thick Steel plate for deck having a span of about 250m of thickness more than 100mm, gradual increase /decrease in thickness of deck, integrated pile having lifting capacity of about 50000 tonnes, and during bore holing; occurrence of very hard rock inclined in shape. A problem in cutting such rocks at 30-40 m down was also one of the serious problems. In Signature Bridge (cable stayed bridge which is under construction in Delhi) efforts have been made to solve problems with the support of experts from Belgium, China and Germany. In these for lifting, crane of 20000 tonnes capacity where the control is with Belgium people and rent of machine is about Rs 1.5 crores per month. China is supplying thick steel plates; Rock cutter has been imported from Japan etc. To support forensic engineering, since beginning health monitoring using most modern sensors have been installed to study behaviors of each component i.e deflection, strain, cracking if any, temperature, wind speed etc. The latest IRC codes on bi directional load testing of mono piles, Geo Physical Investigation, IRC 5, IRC 6, IRC: 22, IRC: 24 and IRC : 112 and IRC draft code on Cable Bridges/ Extra dosed bridges shall be refered and implemented to avoid future accidents. 5.2 Case 2: General Failure in Cable Bridges Figure 1 shows different failure/fluttering/flapping of cable bridges as shown in Fig. 1,(a), (b) and (c) earlier due to very high wind speed. The remedial measure suggested is use of stable truss at the bottom of the full deck slab as per design in case of fluttering. Fig. 1 (d) shows a failure occurs in Kota Bridge over Chambal River in Rajasthan due to accidental reasons. The correction has been rectified particularly grade of concrete, design workmanship etc. Now the bridge is opened to traffic.

Fig. 1 A Earlier Failure of Cable Stayed Bridges 20

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Fig. 1 B

Fig. 1 C

Fig. 1 D Fig. 1 Earlier Failure of Cable Stayed Bridges Fig. 2 shows protection of Pylons again collision as shown in the Fig. 2 and to avoid damage to the foundation.

Fig. 2: Pylon Protection Against Collision

TECHNICAL PAPER 5.3 Case 3. After Construction: The broken fuel pipe caused a serious accident when diesel fuel poured out from a van onto the road. A following car skidded and the driver was seriously injured when the driver collided with an oncoming lorry. The nylon connector had fractured by stress corrosion cracking due to a small leak of battery acid. Nylon is susceptible to hydrolysis when in contact with sulfuric acid, and only a small leak of acid would have sufficed to start a brittle crack in the injection moulded nylon 6, 6 connector by stress corrosion cracking. Once the crack had penetrated the inner bore, fuel started leaking onto the road. Diesel fuel is especially hazardous on road surfaces if it forms a thin, oily film that cannot be easily seen by drivers and surface may cause skidding. The insurers of the van driver admitted liability and the injured driver were compensated. In another case, electrocution was the case of accident. Hazard Assessment analysis was carried out in this case. (Fig. 3-5)

Fig. 3.a: Common type Cable Duct Surface in Cable

Fig. 5: Fracture in Anchorage (WJE Associates Inc.) 5.4 Hazard Assessment Analysis: The hazard associated with the crane is an electrical shock. The manufacturer was aware of the hazard of the crane coming into contact with overhead power lines. So, warning on the cranes stated: “Danger! Stay away from machine if close to power lines. Machine load and ground can become electrified and deadly” The construction worker was injured when crane came in contact with overhead power line and the load, the concrete bucket, became electrified. Proximity warning device and insulating links represent at least two guarding options that would have prevented the electrical shock accident. Forensic Engineer concluded that warning on the crane was inadequate and substitute for safety options available to the crane manufacturer. Crane manufacturer could have designed a safer piece of equipment. 6. CONCLUSION Construction of cable bridges is very expensive in certain cases, and due to dimensions of the cable bridges, failure of them/ snapping of stays etc. can endanger lives of many people.

Fig. 3.b: Dampers on Bridge Cables

Fig. 4: Cross-tie on Cables (Credit by: FHWA)

Close spacing of cables can reduce longitudinal bending moments in the deck and the deck thickness. The protective metal coating except epoxy coating must be applied to individual wires as they are manufactured. Due to using high tech and current specification in both design and construction of cable bridges, by more information sharing, the number of cable bridge failures may decrease and future cable bridges may have better performances. To avoid fluttering, truss can be designed at the bottom of the deck slabs in Cable bridges. Shrinkage cracks may appear in case of use of Silica for

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TECHNICAL PAPER exit of high temperature for which proper curing and 24 hour sack curing are must. In case of appearance of micro cracks multiple wash of approved sealing compound with continuous operation should be applied till it is sealed and closed. Forensic engineering has grown substantially in recent years as consumers have demanded ever-increasing levels of quality. Premature product failure deprives the users of that product particularly when using innovative designs. References: i.

ii.

Performance of Concrete Reinforced with Combination of Amorphous metallic and conventional steel fibres, by Ravinder Gettu and Sunitha K Nayar, 4th Asian Conference on Ecstasy in Concrete, ICI-ACECON 8-10th Oct 2015 Kolkata. Utilizing precast bridge Construction to Promote

accelerated bridge construction in high seismic regions and Application of C 70 Self Compacting Concrete in a Construction Project of Skyscraper, in 4th Asian Conference on Ecstasy in Concrete, ICIACECON 8-10th Oct 2015 Kolkata. iii. www.tawfikgroup.com.au/Forensic Engineering and Material Failure Analysis.html iv.

http://www.open.edu/openlearn/science-mathstechnology/engineering-and-technology/engineering/ introduction-forensic-engineering/content-section-0

v.

Shi, H. and Tee, K.F. (2014) ‘Review of design and construction of hurricane protection barriers’, Int. J. Forensic Engineering, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp.144–151.

vi.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forensic_engineering

vii. https://www.crcpress.com/Forensic-MaterialsEngineering-Case-Studies/Lewis-Reynolds-Gagg/ 9780849311826

IRC Technical Committees Meeting Schedule for February, 2019

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Date

Day

Time

Name of the Committee

01-02-19

Fri

11.00 AM

Specialized Bridge Structures including Sealinks Committee (B-9)

01-02-19

Fri

2.30 PM

General Design Features (Bridges and Grade Separated Structures) Committee (B-1)

02-02-19

Sat

11.00 AM

Bearings, Joints and Appurtenances Committee (B-6)

02-02-19

Sat

11.00 AM

Hill Roads & Tunnels Committee (H-10)

09-02-19

Sat

11.00 AM

Foundation, Sub-Structure, Protective Works and Masonry Structures Committee (B-3)

09-02-19

Sat

10.30 AM

Loads and Stresses Committee (B-2)

15-02-19

Fri

2.30 PM

Road Maintenance and Asset Management Committee (H-6)

18-02-19

Mon

12.00 Noon

Human Resource Development Committee (G-2)

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TECHNICAL PAPER SMART TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM CITING BEST PRACTICES AND ITS RELEVANCE IN INDIAN CITIES

Prof. P.K.Sarkar*

Dr. Ravi Sekhar Chalumuri**

abstruct Due to rapid urbansization, most of the cities of different sizes in India face severe traffic problems. Traditional transportation modes hevily depending on gasolin based fuel are not geared to ensure the less pollution, mobility and safety needs for the society at large. Due to this reason, incesssant movement of traffic continues to be the causes of traffic congestion, air and noise pollution coupled with the occurance of road accidents resulting to the losses of human lives. The Government of India has also initiated to develop 100 smart cities. In this context, an attempt has been made to appreciate the role on importance of smart transportation which would be an only solution not only towards addressing the presnt transport problems in the cities but also help ensure greater degree of mobility and safety to the smart cities. At this backdrop, an attempt has been made to explore ways and means to appreciate the role and importance of the smart transportation in general and its applications in cities and best practices in particular.

1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Urbanization A lot has been said about Urbanization and its impact on the society as a whole. Urbanization is the result of urban pull and rural push. Globalization, liberalization, privatization are the primary inputs for the process for urbanization in India. And the numbers are indeed endearing! According to varied reports, the number of urban agglomeration /town has grown from 1827 in 1901 to 7935 in 2011. Population residing in urban areas has recorded an increase from 2.58 crore in 1901 to 37.7 crore in 2011 accounting for 32% of population living in urban areas as per 2001 census. The figures alone should have you feeling bearish about the impact of urbanization. According to the 2011 census(1), the current population of India is 1.21 billion. The population is likely to grow at the speed of 1.8-1.5% each year by 2030. Urban population in India was to the tune of 17% in 1951 that increased to 32% in 2011 and is likely to go up to around 40% by the year 2040. However, the metropolitan cities – those with a million plus population – has gone up sharply over this era. From thirty *

five in 2001, the amount of metropolitan cities rose to fifty as per the Census of India, 2011. Out of those fifty, eight cities – Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, and Pune – have population more than five million. In order to address the problems of urbanisation, it is increasing being felt that application of smart city concept may alleviate urbanisation problems causing the city unsustainable. Keepiing this mind, it would be worth -attemptting to demonstrate some examples that make the city smart using smart technologies in the form ITS. The concept of a smart city( 2,3) is a relatively new one. Cities in the developed world are formulating and applying ICT master plans and then using these plans to develop a citywide command and control network that monitors and optimizes the delivery of services like power, water, traffic and healthcare As such, there’s no simple definition for smart cities. The term encompasses a vision of an urban space that is ecologically friendly, technologically integrated and meticulously planned, with a particular reliance on the use of information technology to improve efficiency. There are a number of cities in the world who are declared

Director (Transportation), Asian Institute of Transport Development, New Delhi

**

Principal Scientist, CSIR- Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi

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TECHNICAL PAPER to be smart cities are namely New York, Armstardom, Calgery, Vancouver, Tokyo, Singapore, Bejing and Shangai and Seoul. These cities have also faced serious problems and challenges in the past and presently enjoys the fruits of the development of smart cities. Ireland has made significat effort to formulate a detailed plan and programme though smart technology. It states(3) that smart Grids and Smart Cities involve the application of advanced electrical engineering and service technologies, facilitated by ICT and accompanying solutions to more effectively and efficiently manage complex infrastructure systems. They open up new markets for existing and new technologies, with the level of system benefits justifying their use within major infrastructural investments. They typically use a layer of technology(4), including software, sensor hardware and control and interface systems, which can be embedded in the design of new infrastructure or applied to existing infrastructure, harnessing and applying real time data to create more intelligent, interconnected and integrated systems which provide higher quality and higher efficiency services to the citizen. 1.2 Motorization As per the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH)(5), the number of vehicles has increased to 142 million in 2011 in India. During the period of 2000 and 2009 ,the growth rate urbanization automobile is 3.16 % and 9.6% respectively. A majority of cars in India are focused in urban Centers and it's surprising to belive that 32% of those vehicles are plying in metropolitan cities alone that represent simply around only 15% of the whole population. It’s interesting to state that Delhi experiences around 1.4% of the Indian population, accounting for over 7% of all motor vehicles within the country. There are already over 8 million registered motor vehicles in Delhi and concerning 1200 vehicles are being registered daily. Two-wheelers and cars account for over 85% of the vehicle population in most of the metropolitan cities. 1.3 Transport system Characteristics The transport System has a wide range of transportation facilities that represent a variety of transportation modes for both passengers and freight transport. Thefollowing components make up the multimodal transportation system: • Public transport vehicles such as Bus, Tram, LRT, MRT, Electric Buses, Mono rail etc. • Freight such as Truck, Tempo , Rail and aviation and IWT carga etc. 24

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• Roads & Bridges • Inland Water Transport System • Rail Transportation system • Sidewalks • Cable System • NMT • Aviation Facilities 2. Traffic Problems & Issues2.1 Congestion and parking: These are the most common transport bottlenecks in huge urban agglomerations, especially connected with motorization and the increase of the car and personalized vehicles, which have necessitated the expansion of the demand of transport infrastructure. The supply of infrastructure has not kept pace with the capacity to stay aware of the mobility growth. Motorization has extended the demand for parking spot, which has given rise to space utilization issues very seriously in central area. i. Longer commuting- Apart from traffic congestion, people are spending an increasing amount of time commuting between their residence and workplace. A critical element behind this pattern is identified with the trend related to residential affordability as housing located further away from central areas (where most of the employment remains concentrated) is more affordable. Along these lines, workers are exchanging time for housing affordability. ii. Public transport inadequacy- Many public transit systems or parts of them, are either over or under used. Uneasiness for users created by crowded public transport in peak hours resulted in low patronage especially for the affluent section and compelled other section to switch over to personalized modes which makes many services financially unsustainable, particularly in suburban areas. Disregarding critical endowments and cross-financing (e.g. tolls) almost every public transit systems can't produce adequate revenue to cover its operational and capital expenses. iii. Difficulties for non-motorized transportBecause of the intense traffic, the versatility of walkers, bikes and vehicles is impaired. A blatant absence of thought for walkers and bikes in the physical design of infrastructures and facilities likewise are the primary cause for the non-

TECHNICAL PAPER consideration of bicycle as mode. iv. High maintenance costs- Financial deficiencies have been facing for aging transport infrastructure, for maintenance costs as well as pressures to upgrade to more modern infrastructure v. Environmental impacts and energy consumption- Pollution, including air and noise, generated due vehicular movements has become a serious impediment to the quality of life and even the health of urban population. Further, energy consumption by urban transportation has dramatically increased. vi. Accidents and safety- Growing traffic in urban areas is linked with a growing number of accidents and fatalities, especially in developing countries. As traffic increases, people feel less safe to use the streets. In India, every four there is a fatal accident while every one minute there is an accident. In this contxt, smart transport system is necessary for an integral part for any smart city being planned in India. 3. THE NEED FOR SMART TRANSPORATION For an efficient transportation system to exist, each mode of the transportation system must be connected to and mutually supportive of each other. Each part of the system is imperative that provides accessibility and mobility to meet the travel requirements of residents in and other travelers, or to transport various types of freight seamlessly . Having said that, it’s extremely important to build such transportation system in a city which will aim to minimize traffic congestion, reducing vehicular emission and road accidents to zero level and simultaneously promotes to comprehensive mobility, and safety through all types freight and passenger transports which calls for development of smart transportation that can be an integral part of a smart city. According to Smart City Council(2, 6), an industry driven organization working in India, “A smart city uses Information and Communications Technology (ICT) to enhance its livability, workability and sustainability. In simplest terms, there are three parts to that job: collecting, communicating and “crunching.” First, a smart city collects information about itself through sensors, other devices and existing systems. Next, it communicates that data using wired or wireless networks. Third, it “crunches” (analyzes) that data to understand what’s happening now and what’s likely to happen next.” For developing

any smart transportation system, ICT play a vital role without which developement of Smart Transportation is not possible. Smart Cities ( 4) connect governments much more closely to people. They provide the support infrastructure to deliver new services, and address a wide range of urban challenges – from environmental sustainability to job creation and economic growt Technology for public use should be up-to-date and user-friendly. Integration of technology in transport has witnessed wider applications in European countries and few asian coutries. One of the comprehensive technology used for transportation is ITS. In Indian scenario, it has been one of the priority areas of National Urban Transport Policy 2006 ( 6 ). The use of ITS has gone up significantly over years in data managing, information and operation of transport systems. ITS provides benefits like, better capacity utilization of existing infrastructure with reduction in travel time, improvemt in the reliability and faster and easier response to any accidents and other real time information. Intelligent Transport System is synonymous to smart and intelligent technology that integrates and combines organizational, institutional and management of transport systems and acts as catalyst in decision making and planning. Main utilities of ITS in this domain to provide intelligent, trouble-free, seamless and coherent services are: i. M  odern digital & intelligent infrastructure and management • Traffic signal and its controlling • Safe & secure mobility for Pedestrian • Convenient and comfortable travelling ii. Huge data base with real time information • Public transport operations with Mobilty Cards (6) • Traffic management and optimization • GPS based tracking • congestion reduction iii. Data and public centric information transparency • Provision of Trip and travel information • Assistance for Safe Driving & navigation system iv. Quick service delivery • Automated services like Parking fees, • Electronic Toll collections • Automated Congestion pricings

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TECHNICAL PAPER Having said that, it is extremely imperative to user for smart transporttation in order to improve transportation system not only for the existing existing cities but also for those cities who are going to be smart city in future. 4. MOBILITY IN SMART CITIES As mentioned earlier, transportation sector plays a very crucial role to make the smart cities efficient safe and smarter by ensuring mobility for all irrespective of any kind road users including children, old, woman and physically disabled. Mobility is one of the key components of smart cities. Many developed cites like London, New York, Munich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore and Amsterdam etc. are increasingly resorting on to improving to quality of life by enhancing smart mobility though a wider applications of Intelligent Transport System. We have to ask ourselves whether to increase, significantly, the capacity of our transport corridors (road, rail, air, sea). This must be done whilst simultaneously reducing accident rates, pollution and congestion. We can achieve our capacity goals either by building more fixed infrastructure, or by using our existing infrastructure more intelligently. More fixed infrastructure takes decades to plan and build, costs huge sums of money, and makes no significant contribution to reducing accident rates or pollution. More intelligent control is a very attractive alternative on all these counts. Make roads and cities smarter Some important aspects that should be considered for mobility in smart cities are • Ease of movement is at the core of smart city

 To develop ITS architecture & master plan for safe and efficient movement of travel and Zero Road accidents 5. STATUS OF SMART TECHNOLOGIES IN PAST YEARS FOR TRANSPORTATION IN INDIA Several Indian cities like Hyderabad, Surat, Coimbatore, Bengaluru, Mangalore, Jamshedpur, Kanpur, Delhi, Mumbai, and Chennai, Nai Raipur, Surat, Kochi have already begun deploying a few smart technologies to efficiently provide civic services. Civic services that have gone smart: • Deployment of advanced communications systems • Metro rail systems • Traffic management systems using BTRACK in Bangalore • Corrodor Traffic Signal Syncronization using on SCOOT sometime back in Delhi • Parking charges using on-line computer system at Palika Bazar • Finding shortest time and path between pair of origin and destination in smart mobile. So far significant progress towards developing smart transportation is not much visible so far in our country.

• The transport system emphasizes walking, cycling and PT as the primary means for comprehensive mobility with personal motor vehicles being actively discouraged.

6. APPLICATIONS OF TRANSPORT STSTEM SMART CITIES

• Freight movement network at low cost and high speed like developing a dedicated freight corridor in the region.

In order to make the city smart, ITS would be one of the key elements to transportation system safe , efficient and sustainable . Road side ITS are as under:

• Improved mobility through a three pronged approach

 Roadside equipment for speed enforcement and violation of red light

 Planning, Design and Implémentation/ Improvements of Public Transport – Metro, BRT, LRT, Monorail, PRT etc.  Planning, Design and Implémentation / Improvement in transport infrastructure–ring roads, bypasses, improvements in the existing road ways  Planning, Design and Implémentation / Improvements in infrastructure for walking, cycling and waterways

26

 Use of non-conventional or alternative source of energy such as solar power, bio fuel, liquid hydrogen etc. to reduce the impact on air pollution with respect to gasoline based vehicle’s emission leading to zero air pollution

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INTELLIGENT FOR MAKING

 Surveillance  Patrolling  Advance Traffic Management • Traffic Control Centre • Traffic Information Centres • Variable Message Signs • Radio Channel • Automatic Incident Detection

TECHNICAL PAPER • Re-routing of traffic in case of events

safety, sustainability, efficiency and comfort beyond the scope of stand-alone systems. It also addresses the following situations

• Pre-trip traffic information systems A number of technologies are increasingly being used for deployment of ITS that includes the following: Anti-collision systems such as

i.

Hazard warning

ii. Data collection & traffic monitoring

 Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS)

iii. In-vehicle signage (speed, incident, guidance…)

 Lane Departure Warning Systems (LDWS).

iv. Secure truck parking (highway)

 Systems that detect driver condition Black Box

v. City loading & resource management (trucks)

• Location-based information • Electronic Vehicle Stability Control (EVSC) • Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) • Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) The Indian Roads Congress (IRC) has already brought out Guidelines on ITS i.e. IRC:SP:110-2017 “Application of Intelligent Transport System for Urban Roads” where Smart Transportation System has been discussed to a great extent. 7. SMART TRANSPORTATION THROUGH Cooperative Vehicle and Highway System

vi. Cooperative traffic network management The primary vision of CVS is to develop a mechanism to make the transportation safe , efficient and smarter. Vehicle to Vehicle (V-V) or Vehicle to Infrastructure (V-I) are the fundamental concept of CVS to make vehicles’ movement safe and efficient. This includes • Zero Conflict • Automatic emergency call system • Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) • Safe & Efficient Fleet management • Integration of Traffic Message Channel (TMC) into navigation devices Traffic and navigation

In order to make smart transportation, it is extremely important to develop Co-operative Vehicle s& Highway System( 7) which can be said as under:

• Parking Services

it communicates and - shares information between ITS stations to moving vehicles on the roads and give advice or - facilitate actions with the objective of improving -

• Emergency and safety

• Information services • Collaboration & Interoperability • Intelligent driving

Fig 1 Show the Concept of CVS

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TECHNICAL PAPER

Government • Transport • Safety • Localities

IT provider • Applications • Software

Market partners • Manufacturer • Suppliers

USERS of All KINDS Transactional

Infrastructure

• Tolls • Parking Multimodal • Bus • Train / Metro • Cycle

• Utilities • Charging pts. • Telecom

Fig. 2 Eco Sytem for Smart Transport

8. Case Studies 8.1 London Most of the cities have demonstrated (what) by introducing new pricing and system management techniques to improve good environmental and economic efficiencies. These techniques can help to improve urban sustainability by ensuring that the historical centers of metropolitan areas remain economically competitive. London is the best demonstration in the recent years, under the leadership of its mayor, Ken Livingstone. The Comprehensive transportation policy of London touches on virtually all of the themes. A few of them are explained below: a. Comprehensive bus system management London(8), launched a transformation in bus service throughout London in order to promote in increase in the bus ridership that are expected due to the congestion charge, Transport for London. This increased the frequencies of buses (using revenues from the congestion charge), and developed the London Bus Priority Network, an 860 km system of streets managed and enforced to otimize the efficiency of bus service. This initiative has resulted in 70 ‘Busplus’ routes that are featured with advanced passenger information, real-time bus arrival displays, more regular cleaning, low floor buses, modern bus shelters, transit priority traffic signals, and automatic vehicle location and driver instruction systems to decrease busbunching and increase reliability. 28

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By developing ‘Quality Incentive Contracts’ the city is rejuvinating with increase in bus services, which added financial incentives for operators to improve the efficiency with quality and reliability of the services resulting in additional ridership. b. Automated traffic enforcement Traffic enforcement require a huge amount of commitment of police and judicial resources in case of traditional approaches. Along with this, enforcement actions themselves may give rise to worsening traffic conditions on busy streets. To address these difficulties many cities are resorting to camera-based enforcement of speed limits, red lights, and other traffic laws. Once the violations get detected, these systems works on for license plate recognition to identify errant vehicle owners. They are typically prosecuted less expensively through the civil courts. This strategy is evolved in London to enforce its congestion charge and to maintain the effectiveness of its bus priority Network. Vehicles using bus lanes illegally are being identified by the fixed and bus mounted cameras, generating evidence for enforcement through the civil courts. Along with the introduction of the congestion charge, the adoption of automated bus lane enforcement has dramatically improved the speed and reliability of bus service in central London.This attempts to use smart technology based on RFID , Micro wave and InfraRed

TECHNICAL PAPER system for identifying and detecting the vehicles in the congestion pricing zones in London. 8.2 Seoul, South KoreA In South Korea, smart cities are expressed as the prefix 'U' - U-City, U-Health, U-Gov, etc. The 'U' stands for ubiquitous - a term favoured in South Korea to express the ubiquitousness (all pervasive) nature of IT in general and the Internet in particular. This is how South Korean's contemplate the city to be based on future information society and its associated knowledge based economy. The aim of U-city is to innovate and build an environment where any citizen can get any services anywhere and anytime through any ICT devices. Tremendous speeding in ICT development has brought the conventional city in terms of intelligence, innovation and evolution to E-city and then to U-city. The U-city development project is an integral part of the national strategy towards U-Korea. As a national urban development project U-city emphasizes the importance of strengthening the role of ITS to be integral part of urban planning and management. Incheon city also contemplates to introduce an intelligent transportation system, home networking, tele-medicine, disaster prevention/monitoring and pollution controlling system by 2020. Providing an advanced ubiquitous computing environment is a part of Inchon’s U-city plans, New Songdo U-City as a smart city scheduled for completion in 2014. New Songdo will locate U-city control centre and provide U-services to the citizens, which includes TOPAZ as shown below for on-call taxis and emergency/rescue services for patients, MelON mobile music portal service, GXG three-dimensional mobile game, Cyworld online social network, Moneta mobile credit-card service and satellite digital multimedia broadcasting. 8.2.1 TOPIS, the center of the world’s advanced transportation: It is Seoul Metropolitan Government’s integrated transportation management ( 9,10,11) center which is responsible for collection of information from bus operations, road traffic, transport fare media and cnstantly helps to provide information to city’s Road Traffic Management System, Bus Operation Management System, Unmanned Enforcement Systems, Traffic Broadcasting System and Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency exerts comprehensive control and management of traffic situations in Seoul as shown in Fig 3.

Fig 3.0 TOPIS, Seoul 8.2.1.1 Functions of TOPIS - Manage real-time traffic flow - Supply information on traffic congestion: - Real-time management of bus operations • Monitor traffic situations and supply congestion information promptly • Supply information on bus operations • offer bus detour and assignment orders -Support scientific transport administration • Bus operation support & bus operation planning • Improve traffic flow and surface transport planning -Operate vehicle enforcement systems-Crackdown on violations of exclusive median bus lanes and illegal parking We need to appreciate that the manner in which Seoul has developed it is seen to be believed with respect to tha application smart technologies. As mentined the country is presesently more focusing on developing many smart cities strongly supported with smart transportation. 8.3 Tokiyo, JAPAN 8.3.1 Government Policy On ITS The primary goals of Japan ITS are (a) less than 2,500 traffic accident fatalities by (2018) and Japan will have (b) World’s safest road traffic society by（2021) leading to zero fatality. Japan (12) currently has government policies on ITS. They are three types of policies that is short term and long term. There are nine areas of ITS utilization in japan i.e. i. Advances in Navigation Systems ii. Electronic Toll Collection

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TECHNICAL PAPER iii. Assistance for Safe Driving iv. Optimization of Traffic Management v. Increasing Efficiency in Road Management vi. Support for Public Transport vii. Increasing Efficiency in Commercial viii. Support for Pedestrians ix. Support for Emergency Operations Limitations of Short term is • studying a system to achieve automated driving on expressways

• Expanding the use of ETC and other ITS technologies Middle/Long term: • Research to advance driving support technologies by using road structure data etc. 8.3.2) Widely deployed ITS Service in Japan - VICS VICS (Vehicle Information and Communication System) is a digital data communication system shown in Fig 4 & 5 that punctually demonstrates the updated necessary road traffic information to drivers through car navigation apparatus.

Fig 4 VICS Centre • The system provides road traffic information on car navigation screens • It is equipped on 35 million automobiles by June 2012 • Ultimately the reduction in annual Co2 emissions was by 2.4 million tons in 2009

• VICS services begin in April 1996 • Provides road traffic information (congestion, accident, etc.) on car navigation screens. • Cumulative shipments of VICS OBU exceed 37 million units (March 2013) The driver is constantly fed with real time data like traffic backup situations or traffic regulations.. Japanese drivers are getting the advantage of VICS. It is also a principal solution to lessen problems of traffic congestions.`` Processing and editing of information regarding traffic congestions, road control and other traffic data is processed at the VICS Center. All the data is sent in words and graphics to the navigation devices installed in the vehicles.

Fig 5 Display of VICS showing Car Navigation System

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“VICS is a component of the Advanced Mobile Information System (AIMS) in traffic information supply activities carried out by the police, the traffic supervisor.

TECHNICAL PAPER 8.3.3.) ETC - ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION, japan An ETC system has to handle complicated toll systems

with different amounts of charge according to the type of vehicle and distance travelled. Fig 6 demonstrates the decrease traffic congestion due to toll operation.

(Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan) Fig 6 Demonstration on Reduction of Traffic Congestion Due to Toll Operation. 9.0 CONCLUSIONS Smart transportation is all set to make steady inroads into the fabric of the society. Smart transportation is an important and most realistic concept for application to address the transportation problems if we are committed to address the existing city problems in general and transportation in particular. This paper touches various aspects for making smart transportation. There’s a growing realization for the need and use of ITS to ensure smart comprehensive mobility and safety for all. The final objective of city planning is to ensure good standard of living though economic and social prosperity for all. The development of smart transportation would be instrumental to address the problem traffic congestion, problem of climate change by reducing green house gas and accidents to even zero level through use of alternative sources of energy like solar power and ITS technologies by using ITS driven CVHS concept as explained . India is a network of

cities and towns of rapid growing society constantly considering challenges of urban societies and evolving within. This society is constantly lookong towards developing for innovative solutions for leading a smarter life with smarter ways of looking into problems. Smarter transportation can help us to make life easier faster smoother. The paper highlights the best practices adopted in cities like London, Seoul and Japan which would be instrumental to draw lessons for efficient application in Indian cities.1

References i. McKinsey Group, India. (2008). India’s urban awakening: Building inclusive cities, sustaining economic growth. New Delhi: MGI. ii. Ministry of Urban Development. (2014). Smart Cities: Concept Note. New Delhi: GoI. iii. Yang, J.-H. (2012, June 21). Smart City Smart Strategy. Seoul. iv. Frost & Sullivan. (2013). Award Analysis for Hitachi, Ltd. Frost & Sullivan Asia Pacific Smart City . v. ROADS - Statistical Year Book India 2017 | Ministry of Statistics and ... http://www.mospi.gov.in/statisticalyear-book-india/2017/190 vi. National Urban Transport Policy 2006 vii. Phil Blythe , 2013 "Class Notes of Phil Blythe, Director, Newcastle University" viii. Oyster card- Wikipedia article ix. Yang, Jin-Hyeok. Smart City Smart Strategy. Seoul, 21 June 2012. x. http://topis.seoul.go.kr/eng/page/about_1.jsp xi. Ho Lee, Sang and Hoon Han, Jung and Taik Leem, Yoon and Yigitcanlar, Tan (2008) Towards ubiquitous city : concept, planning, and experiences in the Republic of Korea. xii. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan 2013, ToshimichiHanai “Intelligent Transport Systems”, Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan

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TECHNICAL PAPER Numerical Slope Stability Analysis of Selected Natural and Manmade Slopes

Sukumar Saha* abstruct In this paper stresses and displacements have been computed for few homogeneous slopes with no foundation layer. The stresses and displacements have been computed for all these cases with different soil parameters. The computed stresses are different in all cases. As boundary condition changes the displacements and stresses are differing. F.S.(Factor of Safety) has been obtained from the stresses obtained by using nonlinear soil model satisfies Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with nonassociated flow rule. Stresses computed in this case are within the Mohr –Coulomb failure criterion. It has been obtained by keeping the stresses outside the failure surface for a finite time and distributed the load to satisfy F (Failure function) <0 criterion for specified no. of iterations. If a sizeable no. of elements are not satisfying the F (Failure function) < 0 criterion within a specified no. of iterations, the slope is then assumed to be failed. The program which has been used to obtain these results was developed at CRRI. For all these slopes considered have only single layer with different soil parameters and the E-values and Poisson’s ratio are same for all the slopes. Stresses have been obtained for all the Gauss points within the slope. All these slopes have been discretised with eight nodded quadrilateral elements and each element has four Gauss points. Finally the F.S. have been computed for all the slopes in two different ways. The strength reduction technique has been used to get the overall factor of safety of the slope. In other way the F.S has been obtained for an assumed failure surface. The failure surface has been assumed by joining the points which are nothing but Gauss integration points and there the value of normal stresses and shear stresses have been obtained through FEM, so it is known. By joining two consecutive points an arc length for the failure surface will be obtained. Finally by joining all these arc lengths a failure surface will be obtained. The F.S. for this failure surface will be obtained by using the equation given below.

Where and etc are the normal and shear stresses at two end points of an arc. Σ is summation symbol, c and φ are strength parameters. By using this formula based on normal and shear stresses computed at all Gauss points, it is possible to compute the F.S. of any shape and on any region of slope. In this paper it has been compared the values of F.S. obtained from Bishop’s method of analysis (Limit Equilibrium method) and from FEM analysis using the strength reduction technique. (Strength Reduction Factor is the F.S. for which the numerical stability fails for a specified no. of iteration or a sudden jump of maximum displacement) and F.S. obtained on any prescribed failure surface based on normal and shear stresses. Finally it has been concluded that FEM technique has been emerged as an most generalized technique for the computation of F.S. of slope.

1. INTRODUCTION: Conventional methods of slope stability analysis has many drawbacks, like assumption of failure surface, non-availability of computation facility in the slope mass particularly in the region bounded by slope profile and failure surface. The stresses and displacements cannot be *

Ex- Senior Principal Scientist, CSIR-CRRI, New Delhi

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computed by this method within the soil mass. As due to the failure of slope, the comprising soil displaces from its original place and consequently within a specified no. of iterations, the slope is then assumed to be failed. The program which has been used to obtain these results is developed at CRRI. For all these slopes considered have

TECHNICAL PAPER only single layer with different soil parameters and the E-values it fails, so displacements and stresses are the basic parameters to determine the failure zone and its severity. In conventional method of stability analyses, the definition to determine the F.S. is the shear stress developed in the soil mass due to gravity loading and hydrostatic pressure developed in the soil mass which decreases the strength of the soil by minimizing the value of the shear strength parameters are less than the shear strength of the soil which again depends on soil parameters whose values are dependent on hydrostatic pressure developed in the soil. So to know the exact idea of failure zone and shear stresses developed in the soil, point to point study in the soil is essential. This type of study has greatest advantage that it can show the zone where the slope fails and failure occurs. Moreover by knowing the exact location of failure zone it is possible to recommend the corrective measure more effectively and economically. This can be done only by FEM. There are different soil models for example elastic, elastic plastic and visco-plastic, out of which, we have to choose the correct model depending upon the soil characteristic to fit the criterion of failure exactly and if the soil model has chosen correctly the FEM will give better result than any other method. The FEM for solving geotechnical problems using nonlinear elasto-plastic soil model has been used widely by geotechnical engineers. The linear problems such as computation of settlements and deformations, the steady state flow problems due to seepage and the consolidation problems with time can be solved by FEM. The use of nonlinearity in geotechnical problems may lead to complexity and required modeling technique to obtain physically viable results. Nonlinear analyses are inherently iterative in nature and take long time to converge so it requires excessive computational time and power. Stability analysis of slopes with nonlinear FEM approach offers real benefits over existing methods. 1.1 Conventional Analysis:

Methods

of

Slope

Stability

Difficulty with all the equilibrium methods is that they are based on the following assumptions and consequently they are not accurate to determine the factor of safety. The main assumption for these analyses are i.

The soil mass can be divided into slices.

ii. Side forces between two slices have not computed but assumed to solve the problem. iii. Failure surfaces are pre-determined. Moreover all these methods are not satisfying all the

equilibrium conditions, they are giving reasonable accurate results. 1.2 Fe Methods for Slope Stability Analysis and its Advantages: The advantages of FEM are i.

No assumptions need to be made in advance about the shape or location of the failure surface. Failure occurs naturally the zones within the soil mass in which the shear strength is unable to sustain the applied shear stress due to mainly gravity i.e., the weight of the soil.

ii. Since there is no concept of slices in the FEM approach, there is no need for assumptions about the slice side forces. The FE method preserves global equilibrium until failure is reached. iii. If realistic soil compressibility data are available, the FE solutions will give infromation about deformation and stresses accurately. iv. The FE method is able to monitor progressive failure and overall shear failure. Recently Chattopadhyay et. al. (1998) studied the stress analysis of an earthen embankment under initial stress by FEM. In this paper they have computed the stresses and displacements in an earthen embankment by considering the soil as elastic material and the effect of initial stresses have been taken into consideration. Griffiths and Lane (1999) studied the slope stability analysis for slope with all physical alternatives ie., (i) slope with homogeneous soil without foundation layer and with foundation layer, (ii) with different soil type layer-wise, (iii) with pore water pressure developed in the soil, (iv) with submerged slope. For this purpose they used FEM with an idea that failure occurs through a zone which is most weak due to its own weight and other instability factors and in that zone soil is unable to sustain the stresses developed due to destabilised forces. In another paper Bhattacharya and Ghosh (1999) used FEM to compute the internal stress distribution based on the theory of elasticity and compared the computed vales of shear stresses with shear strength mobilised on the different position of embankment particularly in the vicinity of the slope. However, the approaches they have adopted are based on the assumption that the embankment and its foundation materials are homogeneous. Besides these two papers are also included. Sukumar Saha (2009) has studied landslide through slope stability analysis. In this paper two slopes which we have taken here in this paper also were studied and remedial measures also suggested. In another paper (2009) he also studied embankment slope by FEM using elasto-plastic model.

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TECHNICAL PAPER 2. FEM PROGRAM AND ITS CHARACTERISTICS

2. Displacements at the nodal points.

2.1 Slope Failure Model

3. Stresses at the four Gauss points of each element.

Slope stability analysis has been carried out by modelling the slope forming material (soil) as non-linear elastoplastic material satisfying Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion and this satisfying process has done by redistributing the stresses which are not satisfying failure criterion through Visco-plastic algorithm. Basically, the stresses which are not satisfying failure function will be converted to equivalent nodal loads and that will be added to the gravity loads i.e., the loads which are due to weight of the soil and the new stiffness equation will be solved to get the displacement and strains. Stresses will be computed again. Then it will be again tested that whether it satisfies the failure function at the all gauss points or not. If this process is unable to converge to a specified no. of iterations, then the system will not converge and simultaneously the slope will fail at this stage. The numerical instability and failure of slope will occur simultaneously. At this stage the displacement of the slope will be quite large in comparison with the previous no. of iteration. When the model will not converge for a specified no. of iterations, the numerically convergence has not been achieved. So, the slope has been failed and the F.S. is that quantity by which the soil parameters have been reduced. At that stage the displacement has been increased drastically in comparison with the previous step of iteration. The slope has been modeled by satisfying the soil as elasto- ViscoPlastic material with Mohr- Coulomb failure criterion and non-associated flow rule. The input and output parameters are given below.

4. F.S. at the points using the formula

INPUT FOR SLOPE FAILURE MODEL 1. Geometry of the slope 2. Soil parameters a. Cohesion of soil – c (kN/m2) b. Soil Friction – φ (degree) c. Density of Soil- γ (kN/m3) d. Modulus of Elasticity of Soil – E (kN/m2) e. Poisson’s ratio- ν f.

Dilation Angle – (degree)ψ

3. Boundary Condition 4. F.S. to be taken as trial values 5. The geometry of piezometric line OUTPUT FOR SLOPE FAILURE MODEL 1. F.S. of the whole slope 34

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Shear strength of the soil F.S =

Shear stress Developed

2.2 Convergence Criterion: The program used in this paper has ability to model more general geometries. This program is for two-dimensional plane strain analysis of elastic perfectly plastic soils with a Mohr-coulomb failure criterion utilizing eight node quadrilateral elements with four Gauss integration points. The soil has assumed initially as isotropic and computes the stresses at each gauss integration point of each element. Then the failure criterion has been tested for each Gauss point, if the value of F i.e. the MohrCoulomb failure function is less than zero at any Gauss point, then it is treated as elastic. If F is greater or equal to zero, then the soil is treated as yielding and the strain of the soil at this stage is visco-plastic. In this model the material or soil allowed to remain in outside of the failure surface for a finite period. This has been done by keeping it outside the failure surface for a finite period and then by redistribution of load throughout the element to satisfy the failure criterion for a specified no. of iteration. And up to that specified no. of iterations if it satisfies the relation F < 0 then it is converging otherwise not. Convergence has been obtained by iteration with redistributing the loads on the system. The reduction factor for the strength parameters is taken as the value of F.S. We will start from a lower value and it will be increased to get the actual F.S. When the reduced strength parameters will be unable to converge the Mohr Coulomb failure criterion for specified no. of iteration, the reduction factor will be taken as the F.S. of the slope. 3. Numerical solution:

Problem

and

its

A numerical study has been carried out for the stresses developed in a slope due to gravity in the soil layer beneath the slope. For this, three slopes have been considered. (i) A model slope with slope angle = 26.570, soil parameters c = 1kN/m2 , ϕ = 200 , ψ = 0, γ = 20 kN/m3 , E = 1×105 kN/ m2 , ν = 0.3 has been considered as by Smith and Griffith (1988) . The height of slope is 1m. (ii) Slope of Buj slope which experienced earthquake in Jan, 2006. The height of the slope=7.5 m and slope length =15.88 m. The slope forming material has parameters c =1kN/m2, ϕ = 200, ψ = 0, γ = 20 kN/m3 , E = 1×105 kN/m2 , ν = 0.3. (iii) Slope

TECHNICAL PAPER at NH-39 with height of slope = 11 m and slope length = 26.40m with soil parameters c =0 kN/m2 , ϕ = 280 , ψ = 0, γ = 20 kN/m3 , E = 1×105 kN/m2 , ν = 0.3. The stresses developed within the slope have been obtained at different points in all the cases and they have been tabulated in different tables shown below. The slope has been divided into 200 elements. 3.1 Case-I : The slope has been considered as a slope of height 1 m and the length of the slope surface = 2.236 m. The soil parameters are c = 1 kN/m2, Φ = 200, γ = 20 kN/m3. It is a single layer slope. The slope has been analyzed using Bishop’s method. The Factor of safety has been obtained and it has given below with failure surface. The same slope has been discretized with eight nodded quadrilateral elements.

Table 1 : Stresses and Corresponding F.S. for the Slope of Case 1 for the Failure Surface Shown in fig.3 Points x(m)

y(m)

1.94 2.07 2.24 2.40 2.69 2.86 3.12

-0.379 -0.4785 -0.6211 -0.7211 -0.8788 -0.921 -0.9788

σy (kN/m2)

τxy(kN/m2)

F.S.

-3.49 -1.05 -1.91 -2.66 -1.31 -1.22 -2.68

0.304 0.59 0.94 1.21 1.04 1.04 0.698

3.70 2.35 1.80 1.62 1.42 1.38 1.38

From FEM analysis the stresses and F.S. obtained point wise and given in the table above. These points have been plotted as shown in the figure below. By joining these points a failure surface has been assumed and consequently F.S. has been obtained using the formula F.S. =

Shear strength Shear stress

Fig. 1 Failure Surface and F.S. for Model Slope

(200 elements, 661 nodes )

In this process strength reduction factor has been taken as the F.S. after which the maximum displacement of the slope taking a jump for strength reduction factor. Stresses has been obtained for four Gauss’s point within the element and on the basis of that stresses the F.S. has been obtained for the specified failure surface as shown in the figure given below. The tables are given below for the specified failure surface.

Fig. 3 The Failure surface and the F.S. has shown above for the data tabulated in table 1

Fig. 2 Displacement Versus F.S. for Model Slope Obtained from FEM Analysis

Table -2 : Stresses and corresponding F.S. for the Slope of Case 1 of Failure Surface Shown in fig.4 Points x (m) 2.33 2.35 2.403 2.41 2.51 2.59 2.693 2.86 2.92 3.12

y(m) -0.58 -0.62 -0.68 -0.72 -0.78 -0.82 -0.88 -0.92 -0.92 -0.98

σy(kN/m2)

τxy(kN/m2)

F.S.

-0.533 -1.36 -2.086 -2.66 -3.66 -3.26 -1.32 -1.22 -2.37 .2677

0.677 0.9175 1.102 1.21 1.43 1.31 1.04 1.045 1.353 0.698

1.57 1.37 1.38 1.42 1.66 1.63 1.623 1.595 1.631 1.763

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TECHNICAL PAPER Table -3 : Stresses and Corresponding F.S. for the slope of case 2 of failure surface shown in fig.7 Points

(200 elements, 661 nodes ) Fig. 4 Failure Surface and the F.S. for the Data Tabulated in table 2 3.2 Case–II Slope at Buj : Fig.5 shows the failure surfaces and the corresponding F.S. obtained using Bishop’s simplified method.

σy(kN/m2)

τxy(kN/m2)

F.S.

x(m)

y(m)

9.59

-0.91

-1.968

1.264

8.48

10.24

-2.09

-19.36

3.48

4.90

10.56

-3.16

-37.11

5.63

4.17

13.82

-5.09

-42.53

11.21

2.27

15.19

-5.41

-35.40

10.94

2.09

18.73

-6.16

-13.18

9.84

1.50

20.08

-6.6

-11.95

9.16

1.57

(200 elements, 661 nodes ) Fig 7 Failure surface and the F.S. for the data tabulated in table 3 Fig. 5 Failure Surfaces and the Corresponding F.S. for Buj Slope

Table -4 : Stresses and corresponding F.S. for the slope of case 2 of failure surface shown in fig.8 Points

Fig. 6 Maximum displacement for the corresponding Strength Reduction Factor (F.S)

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σy(kN/m2)

τxy(kN/m2)

F.S.

x (m)

y(m)

12.36

-2.41

-2.70

2.44

4.50

12.50

-2.84

-10.25

3.86

3.56

13.39

-3.59

-16.36

5.82

2.74

13.93

--3.90

-17.31

6.50

2.51

14.66

-4.34

-18.60

7.15

2.345

15.20

-4.65

-19.38

7.99

2.135

16.44

-5.09

-16.45

8.79

1.82

17.90

-5.41

-6.40

7.66

1.61

TECHNICAL PAPER

(200 elements, 661 nodes )

(200 elements, 661 nodes )

Fig 8 Failure surface and the F.S for the data tabulated in table 4

Fig. 10 Failure Surface and the F.S. for the Data Tabulated in Table 5

3.3 CASE –III Slope at NH-39

Fig. 11 Failure Circles for Slope NH-39 Fig. 9 Maximum Displacement for the Corresponding Strength Reduction Factor (F.S)

Table : 5 Stresses and Corresponding F.S. for the Slope of Case III of Failure Surface Shown in fig. 10 Points

σy(kN/m2)

τxy(kN/m2)

F.S.

Table : 6 Stresses and Corresponding F.S. for the Slope of Case III of Failure Surface Shown in fig.12 Points

σy(kN/m2)

τxy(kN/m2)

F.S.

x (m)

y(m)

17.13

-2.43

-2.46

0.869

1.51

17.59

-3.06

-11.07

4.05

1.454

17.98

-3.53

-17.82

5.31

1.78

19.05

-4.63

-30.21

6.22

2.58

20.22

-5.27

-33.18

7.22

2.44

22.31

-5.73

-23.92

7.65

1.66

x (m)

y(m)

21.87

-4.63

-2.60

1.063

4.50

23.02

-5.73

-16.25

5.42

3.56

25.26

-6.83

-17.70

6.27

2.74

27.50

-7.93

-19.61

6.88

2.51

29.75

-9.03

-21.29

6.96

2.345

24.31

-6.37

-17.04

5.89

1.54

31.99

-10.13

-23.21

7.99

2.135

25.84

-6.83

-11.98

4.193

1.52

35.11

-10.77

-4.77

8.79

1.82

26.62

-6.83

-3.18

1.314

1.29

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TECHNICAL PAPER reduction factor beyond which displacement has a jump is taken as F.S. for the respective slope. Fig. 1 shows the failure surfaces and F.S. for model slope obtained through Bishop’s simplified method. Similarly fig.5 and 11 are showing the similar results for Buj slope and NH39 slope respectively. 4. CONCLUSION:

(200 elements, 661 nodes ) Fig. 12 Failure Surface and the F.S. for the Data Tabulated in Table 6 Table : 7 Results of F.S. of Three Slopes Defined above

Slope Name

Min. F.S. (Bishop)

F.S. (FEM)

F.S. (FEM)

(Strength Reduction Factor)

(Stress method)

Model Slope Buj Slope NH39 Slope

1.425

1.4

1.43

0.87

1.0

0.924

1.22

1.1

1.179

3.4 Analysis of Results of all three cases: Finally a comparative table has been prepared for all the three slopes mentioned above. From the table. 7 it is clear that F.S. in all these methods are matching and this proves the authenticity of FEM. In case of ‘model slope’, the F.S. (stress method) for model slope is little higher than other values of F.S. as the failure circle chosen is different from the failure circle for the minimum F.S. obtained by Limit Equilibrium method (Bishop’s simplified method) which has been shown in fig. 1. From the figures (fig.3 and 4 for model slope, fig.7 and 8 for Buj slope, fig. 10 and 12 for NH39 slope ) it has been observed that F.S. can be obtained for any shape of failure surface through FEM. In fig 2, fig. 6 and 9, the strength

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From the results obtained in this paper from the three different slopes as mentioned, it has been observed that the FEM method is more capable for the derivation of F.S. of a slope in any region and it is also capable of determining the displacements at any points within the slope and by virtue of that it is also possible to identify the zone of most displaced portion which is the zone of failure for that slope, although it has not been shown in this paper. 5. REFERENCES : 1. Chattopadhyay, A., Saha, S., Chattopadhyay, A.,“Analysis of an Earthen embankment under initial stress by Finite Element Method” Jl. of Int. Engineers (India) ( Civil Engg. Division), Vol.79, Dec., 1998, pp.130-135. 2. Bhattacharya, G., Ghosh, S., “Slope Stability Analysis Based on computed stress “Jl. Of Int. Engineers (India) (Civil Engg. Division) Vol. 80, May, 1999, pp.-27-29. 3. Griffiths, D. V. and Lane, P. A. , “Slope Stability Analysis by Finite Elements” Geotechnique 49, No. 3. , 1999, pp. 387 -403. 4. Smith, I. M. and Griffiths, D. V., (1988) Programming the finite element method 2nd Ed. John Wiley & Sons - Chichester . 5. Saha Sukumar, “Control of Landslide Hazards through Slope stability analysis-case studies” – Indian Highways, December,2009, pp. 23-31. 6. Saha Sukumar, “Analysis of Embankment slope from failure point of view using stress behavior obtained from finite element method using elasto-plastic model” – Highway Research Journal, Vol 2, No.1 January-June,2009, pp.107-117.

TECHNICAL PAPER QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT – ROAD PROJECT PREPARATION PERSPECTIVE

Subir Kumar Podder* abstruct The paper is aimed at outlining an approach for Quantitative Risk Assessment employing stochastic analysis (with a triangular distribution) so as to determine the combined influence of the dictating parameters on probabilities. It is appreciated that in the perspective of Road Transport Development Projects, and more specifically the Economic Analysis carried out in Feasibility Studies for Road Improvement and Rehabilitation Projects, such dictating parameters are Traffic and Project Cost. Besides construction cost, it is to be appreciated that the impacts of traffic sensitivity, manifested in level of service and congestion, impact the economics of a road project. Often these impacts are analysed separately. This paper aims at an approach for determining the impact (on Traditional Economic Analysis Instruments like EIRR, NPV) under a combined influence of the aforesaid two parameters. Such analysis requires treading a step beyond that what is required when probabilities are ascertained separately, and is the focus of this paper.

1. Introduction Quantitative Risk Analysis– It provides a means of estimating the probability that the project NPV will fall below zero, or that the project EIRR will fall below the opportunity cost of capital. More explicitly, the quantitative risk analysis involves randomly selecting values for the variables from the probability distribution determined; combining these values with all base case values to give an EIRR (or NPV) result; and repeating such a calculation a large number of times to provide a large number of EIRR (or NPV) estimates. These estimates are then summarized in a distribution, key features of which is the proportion of EIRR values that fall below (i) the opportunity cost of capital (say 12 per cent), (ii) the most likely forecast values (i.e. the value which the analysis actually yielded). The objective is to estimate the probability that the project might turn out to be unacceptable. Traditionally, the principle of risk analysis is based on random simulations carried out assuming a triangular probability distribution with pre-determined minimum,

most likely and maximum limits. The most likely values are those assumed for the base case situation, whilst the lower and upper limits that are to be applied for risk analysis in road feasibility studies are expressed in terms of percentage (%) of the base-case1 values2. Triangular Probability Distribution - The triangular distribution is typically used as a subjective description of a population for which there is only limited sample data, and especially in cases where the relationship between variables is known but data is scarce. It is based on knowledge of the maximum and minimum and an “Inspired guess” as to the modal value. [For this reason the triangular distribution has been called a “lack of knowledge” distribution]. The triangular distribution is often used in business decision making3, particularly in simulations. Generally, when not much data is known about the distribution of an outcome, (say, only its smallest and largest values are known), it is possible to use the uniform distribution. But if the most likely outcome is also known, then the outcome can be simulated by a triangular distribution4. In probability theory and statistics, the triangular distribution is a continuous probability distribution with lower limit a,

1. The base-case refers to Estimated Project Cost and Estimated Traffic. Risks triggered by changes from these estimates, measured in terms of impacts on the economic parameters, are essentially what that the quantitative risk assessment is aimed at. 2. The adopted values i.e. % of base-case values are generally those that the Terms of Reference for a particular project specify. However, generally they are the same that are accounted for Sensitivity Analysis performed under an Economic Analysis. 3. The triangular distribution, along with the  Beta distribution, is also widely used in  project management  (as an input into  PERT  and hence critical path method (CPM)) to model events which take place within an interval defined by a minimum and maximum value. 4. Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia *

Associate Director, LEA Associates South Asia Pvt. Ltd, New Delhi, India

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TECHNICAL PAPER upper limit b and mode c, where a < b and a <= c <= b. The probability density function (pdf) is given by:

UPPER LIMIT: 1) Construction Cost – (i.e. the Favoured Alternative)

90 % of the Base Case

2) Traffic Growth – (i.e. the Favoured Alternative)

110% of the Base Case

LOWER LIMIT:

..................(1) The cumulative distribution function (cdf) is given by:

1) Construction Cost – (i.e. the Favoured Alternative)

120 % of the Base Case

2) Traffic Growth – (i.e. the Favoured Alternative)

75% of the Base Case

2. The CONVENTIONAL PRACTICE With the boundary conditions in place, as stated immediately above, the stochastic analysis, as often practiced, essentially involves the following steps:

There are generally no fixed criteria for using such a result in ascertaining the acceptability of the Project Viability.

• Establishing the probability distribution function (pdf), assuming a triangular probability distribution, for changes in EIRR triggered by COST

However, high risk probabilities may be associated with projects that have a high expected NPV (or EIRR)5.

• Making Random Simulations to arrive at a large number of estimates (of EIRR)

..................(1A)

Pertinence to Road Development Projects - Risk analysis, carried out under Feasibility Studies, for road transport development projects is concerned with the probability or likelihood of the following: • Construction costs increasing/ decreasing by a certain percentage than that for the base-case; & • Traffic growth occurring at a lower/higher rate than that assumed in the base case situation.

• Establishing the cumulative distribution function (cdf) [it essentially summarises the estimates]

Such probabilities get determined employing the principles of random simulations assuming a triangular probability distribution.

The analysis is then repeated for changes in EIRR as triggered by changes to TRAFFIC.

Continuing from above, intrinsic to the triangular probability distribution are the boundary conditions (upper and lower limits6, as well as the mode value i.e. the most likely value). Very often the prescribed values for the upper and lower limits are as follows:

• Interpreting the results which essentially is determining the proportion of EIRR values that fall below (i) the opportunity cost of capital (say 12 per cent), (ii) the most likely forecast values (i.e. the value which the analysis actually yielded), (iii) the central estimates (say the mean value).

The aforesaid steps can be performed using a MS EXCEL spreadsheet analysis7 that employs in-built functions to generate random functions and then the One Way Data Table to trigger the simulations required.

5. Source: Page 157, Appendix 21, Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects, Economic and Development Resource Center, the Asian Development Bank, February 1997. 6. It is imperative that the (i) Upper Limits correspond to the scenario where the %-change to the variables lend a higher EIRR (or NPV); and (ii) Lower Limits correspond to the scenario where the %-change to the variables lend a lower EIRR (or NPV), when compared to the EIRR (or NPV) of the Favoured Alternative (the most likely value i.e. that the analysis yields with the Base Case values). 7. The spreadsheet analysis generally uses the uniform random number function [RAND] in Excel to simulate various discrete or continuous outcomes, without the use of add-ins such as @RISK or Crystal Ball, both of which are programs that are often recommended for performing stochastic analysis [For instance, the “Procedural Guide to Economic Road Feasibility Studies, MOWHC, Government of Uganda, (March 2006)”]. By the use of lookup tables, the simulation repeats itself.

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TECHNICAL PAPER 3. BASIC STOCHASTIC PRINCIPLES FOR BIVARIATE RANDOM VARIABLES – AN INTRODUCTION



1) f(x,y) > = 0

3.1 Basic principles



2)

Basic principles on which this paper banks upon are presented briefly next. pdf» Probability Density Function f(x) [pdf is not a probability, it can have value >1.0] Any function can be a pdf if the following are satisfied: f(x) ≥ 0 and

Also, F(x) = P[X ≤ x] = Here, cdf » Cumulative Distribution Function F(x).

• For a continuous r.v. (X, Y), the joint probability density function f(x,y) is defined as

• The joint pdf, f(x,y) is not a probability Joint cdf of (X,Y): F(x, y) = P [ X<= x, Y < = y ] 3.3 Marginal Density Functions The marginal density functions of bi-variate continuous random variables relate essentially to probability of a particular variable irrespective of the value that the other random variable takesThe marginal density functions, g(x) and h(y), of X & Y respectively are defined as follows:

Extracts8 are used here for pertinent explanations.

These are in fact derived from the joint pdf f(x,y), as follows:

Further, P[x ≥ a] = 1 - P[X ≤ a]

From the definitions of pdf’s it is thus seen that g(x) is in fact the original pdf of the r.v. (random variable)X. Thus,

This is illustrated below.

Similarly for the r.v. (random variable) Y 3.4 Conditional Distribution The conditional distribution of X given Y=y is defined as: 3.2 Bi-Variate Distributions

g (x / y) = f (x, y) / h (y), h (y) > 0

Continuing from the above, for a two-dimensional random variable (X,Y), where both X and Y are continuous random variables, the Bi-variate Distributions are as follows:

The conditional distribution of Y given X=x is defined as:

Joint pdf of (X,Y):

While the conditional pdfs satisfy all conditions for a pdf,

h (y / x) = f (x, y) / g (x), g (x) > 0

8. Source: Extracts from NPTEL, Lecture No. # 02, Bivariate Distributions, Stochastic Hydrology, Prof. P. P. Mujumdar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.

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TECHNICAL PAPER the Cumulative Conditional Distributions are:

With the aforesaid explanations for the fundamentals of a bivariate distribution (for continuous random variables), the following requirement for stochastic independence can be concluded upon. 3.5 Independent Random Variables When the two random variables are independent, we have g(x/y) = g(x), and h(y/x) = h(y) i.e the conditional pdf is equal to the marginal pdf

4. TRIANGULAR DISTRIBUTION - BASICS 4.1 PERTINENT PROPERTIES Continuing with the discussions on triangular distribution, in Section-1 above, relevant properties are as follows. Fundamental properties 9-10.

Therefore, g (x / y)

= f (x, y) / h (y)

g (x)

= f (x, y) / h (y)

So, f (x, y)

= g (x) .h (y)

So it is concluded that for X and Y to be stochastically independent, f(x,y) = g(x) h(y) The following example illustrates this (taken from Ref. 2).

9. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangular_distribution 10. These properties find specific relevance to parameter estimation using Method of Moments 11. http://www.asianscientist.com/books/wp-content/uploads/ 2013/06/5720_chap1.pdf

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TECHNICAL PAPER iii. Method of Maximum Likelihood (ML) – Is based on maximising a likelihood function, and is preferred over Method of Moments. A brief 13 follows:

4.2 Generating Random Variates Carrying out random simulations being basic requirements, as mentioned in Section-2 above, the following expressions are used in generating11 the random variates for a triangular distribution.

4.3 Parameter Estimation

However triangular distribution poses specific problems in the use of ML for parameter estimation. While there are different literature14,15,16 available on this and the aspects that can be adopted for addressing such difficulties, the one that this paper has used is that given in Reference-12,17. Extending that mentioned in (17), Reference 12 presents a simplified version that requires solving numerically a single equation given next:

While the aforesaid equation allows generating random variates which follow a triangular distribution, the next step is estimating parameters defining the distribution which essentially are the values for a, b and c in eqn. (1). The methods used for Parameter Estimation are: i.

Method of Matching Points – Is a simple but Approximate Method, hence may be used for first approximations.

ii. Method of Moments (MoM)12 – In this method equating the first ‘m’-moments of the population to the sample estimates of the first ‘m’-moments results in ‘m’ equations to solve for ‘m’-unknown parameters.

............... (3) While details are presented in Reference-12, the unique solution to Eqn. (3) is the intersection of the function g(q) with the positive diagonal of the unit square [Shown subsequently in Section 8.1 of this paper]. 5. FRAMING OF THE PROBLEM Continuing with the bivariate probability discussed above

12. First Moment – Mean, Second Moment – Variance, Third Moment – Skewness, Fourth Moment – Kurtosis etc. It is to be appreciated that the properties mentioned in Section 4.1 finds relevance owing to their requirements for Parameter Estimation using the Method of Moments. 13. For details references can be made to: NPTEL, Lecture No. # 07, Parameter Estimation, Stochastic Hydrology, Prof. P. P. Mujumdar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 14. Joo, Y. and Casella, G. (2001), Predictive distributions in risk analysis and estimation for the triangular distribution, Envoronmetrics, 12: 647-658, doi: 10.1002/env.489: This mentions that estimation using quantile least squares is preferable to ML for ‘triangular distribution’. 15. Source: Page 28, Reference12: The package @RISKS allows definition of a triangular distribution by specifying a lower quantile ap, a most likely value m and an upper quantile br , such that a
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TECHNICAL PAPER (in Section-3), in the perspective of the Quantitative Risk Analysis pertinent to Road Infrastructure Development Projects described at the onset (in Section 1), let us consider two variables C and T influence of which get manifested in the variable E18 . The following (∆C and ∆T) are differences w.r.t. base values for C and T respectively, and the corresponding ∆E values (∆EC and ∆ET) resulting from changes to C/T. ∆T

∆ET

2.2

-13

-1.4

-8

1.4

-10

-0.8

-4

0.5

-8

-0.4

0

0

0

0

4

-1.1

3

0.6

8

-1.9

4

1

12

-2.2

18

2

∆C

∆EC

-12

 

 

The following are graphical representations of the aforesaid monotonously decreasing / increasing functions.

....................(4) The following describes the ‘parameter estimation’ in establishing the pdf for ∆ET19 and ∆EC in line with eqn. (3) described in Section 4.3 earlier.

In line with the conventional practice, mentioned in Section-2 earlier, the probability distribution functions (pdf) for changes in E (∆E) are determined separately next, as triggered by changes in C (∆C) and changes in T (∆T) respectively. A triangular distribution gets assumed, as we derive the pdfs, given next, using eqn. (1). 18. While C and T are typically COST and TRAFFIC, E is EIRR (or NPV) as described in Section-1 above. 19. Goal Seek Function in MS-Excel has been used to facilitate the trial and error involved [in the assumption of ‘q’]. 20. For road infrastructure development projects this is 12 per cent, the cut-off EIRR which is generally considered as the opportunity cost of capital).

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TECHNICAL PAPER Pursuant to the traditional practice, simulations (to arrive at a large number of estimates for either of the cases, EC and ET) can be performed using Eqn (2). Using such estimates proportions of EC and ET values that fall below a threshold20 or other central estimates (say mean) can be derived (separately for impacts of C and T). However this paper is aimed at determining the combined influence of the variables C and T on E.

....................(7) So the cumulative distribution function (cdf) is:

6. THE PROPOSED APPROACH - BASICS Continuing from discussions in Section-3.3 earlier, marginal density functions of bi-variate continuous random variables relate essentially to probability of a particular variable irrespective of the value that the other random variable takes. Now in regard to estimating Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) for Road Infrastructure Development Projects, Project Cost and Traffic Growth are independent entities. As described at the onset, in Section-1, prescribed boundary conditions are used in the economic analysis (traditionally such analysis entails Sensitivity Analysis21and Quantitative Risk Analysis). Accordingly therefore the following analysis assumes that impact of ∆C and ∆T on ∆E being not dependent, the distributions22 for ΕC and ΕT can be construed as marginal distributions. Using the values for supports derived through a triangular pdf, the marginal density functions(are essentially those given under eqn. 4)g(∆EC) and g(∆ET) are:23

....................(8) This, together with conventional simulations using triangular distribution, forms the basis for the proposed approach. The details are presented in the subsequent section. 7. THE PROPOSED APPROACh –FORMULATION The proposed approach is based on mathematical computation for the RHS of eqn.-8, equated to probability –computations for the LHS of eqn.-8. 7.1 Mathematical Computations The RHS of eqn.-8 is essentially

....................(9) Considering x to represent ∆Ec, then the limits are either -2.75 & ∆Ec OR 0 &∆Ec, depending on value of ∆Ec. Considering y to represent ∆ET, then the limits are either -1.79 & ∆ET OR 0 & ∆ET, depending on value of ∆ET. ....................(5) Now from the conditionality for stochastic independence, discussed in Section-3.5 earlier, we have f(∆E) = g(∆EC) x g(∆ET) Therefore the pdf for ∆E

.............(6)

For example, Say for certain ∆Ec and ∆ET, the calculations using Eqn (9) yields P [∆E] =0.699 ~ 0.7. 7.2 Probability Computations As mentioned above, the LHS of eqn.-8 addresses using

21. It is appreciated that unlike traditionally performed Quantitative Risk Analysis, traditionally Sensitivity Analysis considers a worst scenario of increased Project Cost together with reduced Traffic. Hence the relevance of this paper finds credence. 22. Given in Section-5 23. Nomenclatures used are in accordance with those given in Section-3 of this paper 24. “Joint cdf” in Section 3.2 may be referred

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TECHNICAL PAPER the principles of probability, as detailed next.

Table 1 3 Parameter Estimates for DE

Step 1: Using the estimated parameters a,b,c as given in Table 1-1 , random simulations were carried out for ∆Ec. For such simulation, Eqn.-2 and the uniform random number function RAND( ) in MS Excel were used. Step 2: Similar simulations are then carried out for ∆ET. Steps 3: Pursuant to stochastic independency, on which the approach is based, multiplying the above, as shown below, yield simulations for ∆E. Table 1 2 Simulated Data for ∆E

As may be seen the supports that get derived from ‘parameter estimation’ using26 the Method of Maximum Likelihood (ML) [Eqn.-3] are: a= -0.250, c = 0, b = 0.258 Steps 5: With the aforesaid supports, and using Eqn.-1 and Eq.-1A pdf and cdf respectively was determined for ∆E. The following graphs show this.

Steps 4: A triangular distribution, with mode( =c )25 = 0 is applied to the simulated data in Table 1-2. 25. Note: c is same as m that Eqn (3) mentions 26. The initial estimates ap and br, [say a =ap = -0.2 and b = br = 0.21 shown in the Table 1-3] can be derived either using “Method of Matching Points” or “Method of Moment”, described in Section 4.3 earlier. 27. The monotonously decreasing / increasing functions given in the graphs in Section-5

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TECHNICAL PAPER The following table gives the probabilities for ∆E. Equation-1A provides P values for corresponding X (=∆E). Table 1- 4 Probabilities for ∆E with Triangular Distribution

that it has been established analytically that “the unique solution to Eqn. (3) is the intersection of the function g(q) with the positive diagonal of the unit square.” While the following graph presents this, the subsequent table shows the derivations for p=0.02 (i.e. r=0.08).

For example, As may be seen from the shaded row in Table 1-4, the probability P[∆E<=0.06] = 0.702 ~ 0.7. 7.3 Inference a. Inferring from Section 7.1 and Section 7.2, equating the separate computations for RHS and LHS of Equation (8), does yield useful information on the combined influence of ∆Ec and ∆ET on ∆E.

b. Now that there exist definite relations, ∆C with ∆Ec and ∆T with ∆ET, as shown in Section 527 earlier, inference (a) above can also be interpreted as “the combined influence of ∆C and ∆Ton ∆E can be arrived at”. 8. RELEVANT DISCUSSIONS 8.1 Unique Solutions For Ml Method

Given that for each value of p there is a unique q, it is imperative that different sets of parameters28 a and b exist. The following figure shows the different sets (of a and b) for the particular sample considered in this paper.

This section is aimed at the unique solution of Eqn. (3) mentioned under Section 4.3 earlier. In this regard it is recalled, as mentioned under Footnote-16, for solutions to the estimates of parameters for the ML method “Keefer and Bodily (1983) formulated this problem in terms of two quadratic equations from which the unknowns a and b had to be solved numerically for the values p=0.05 (i.e. r = 1-p =0.95).”Also recalled, Section 4.3 was concluded stating 28. The parameter c (or m, see note-28) however remains same. For the case under consideration, a and b being departures from the most likely estimate (mode) c is ‘0’. 29. For details references can be made to: NPTEL, Lecture No. # 28, Goodness of Fit, Stochastic Hydrology, Prof. P. P. Mujumdar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 30. For details the following may also be referred to: Statistical Methods in Hydrology, Charles T. Haan, The IOWA State University press, 1977.

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TECHNICAL PAPER 8.2 Goodness of Fit

4. The following is a graphical representation.

As may be seen from Step-4, Section 7.2, a triangular distribution is applied to the simulated ∆E data. It is appreciated that: 1. The sample size, obtained through simulations, considered herein is less (just 20). A larger sample is however to be considered in practice, to yield more reliable estimates. 2. Also, other distributions might be a better fit. While the aspect of goodness of fit29-30, is not attended to in this paper, the following is a frequency analysis to present some idea on the level of appropriateness in adopting the triangular distribution for the set of data considered.

5. Implications of “Goodness of Fit”, using the aforesaid results, can be perceived from the following: Triangular distribution: P[∆E<= 0.060]=0.7(i.e. 70%) Normal distribution: P[∆E<= 0.104]=0.7(i.e. 70%) P[∆E<=0.060] = 0.324(i.e. 32%) 9. SUMMARY

Table 1-4, presented in Section 7.2, provides probabilities corresponding to the sample population shown in the Frequency Table above. 3. Continuing from above, probabilities with a Normal Distribution corresponding to the same set follows. The differences are obvious when seen against those for triangular distribution given in Table 1-4.

31. Footnote 22 may be referred to 32. Section 7.3 elaborates this with an example

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While it is a practice for sensitivity analysis31 to ascertain the worst scenario involving the negative effects of all the deciding parameters, but this is not always practiced for Quantitative Risk Analysis in Road Infrastructure Development Projects. Traffic is used as a surrogate for economic benefits as this has a direct bearing on the economic cost of any investment. However, it is also to be appreciated that cost is also dependent on non-traffic aspects, and so it is a practice that their impacts on the project-economics (measured in terms of EIRR) are evaluated separately. This paper attempts to present a means for ascertaining probabilities of their combined impacts. This requires efforts from highway engineering professionals to tread steps beyond that which is required when the economicimpacts are determined separately. Further, this allows for opportunities to reallocate resources at a future date (subsequent to an Economic Analysis) in the event changes are frequented for a particular parameter (say,32 a decrease in traffic growth rate, which thus necessitates reduction to the project cost so as to have the EIRR within an acceptable limit). Further, the approach can also be adopted for financial analysis of private sector projects, where too traffic is used as a surrogate entity.

TECHNICAL PAPER However the paper restricts itself to bi-variate continuous random variables. Given that traffic and project-cost are the primary elements which get considered in an economic analysis, a bi-variate distribution however finds relevance. Applicable fundamentals of probability / stochastic analysis are revisited for working engineers to have a ready appreciation. It is appreciated that the same approach may even be extended to other domains of engineering by highway engineers. REFERNCES: 1. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects,

Economic and Development Resource Center, the Asian Development Bank, February 1997 2. NPTEL, Lectures on Stochastic Hydrology, Prof. P. P. Mujumdar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 3. Procedural Guide to Economic Road Feasibility Studies, MOWHC, Government of Uganda, (March 2006) 4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangular_distribution 5. http://www.asianscientist.com/books/wp-content/ uploads/ 2013/06/5720_chap1.pdf

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IRC- Pocket Book for Road Construction Equipment

1200.00

50.00

Copies of these publications can be obtained from IRC Office against cash payment. For more details please contact + 91 11 2338 7759 and E-mail: [email protected]

INDIAN HIGHWAYS

FEBRUARY 2019

49

MoRT&H Circular

50

INDIAN HIGHWAYS

FEBRUARY 2019

TENDER NOTICE

INDIAN HIGHWAYS

FEBRUARY 2019

51

TENDER NOTICE

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TECHNICAL TENDER NOTICE PAPER

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Delhi Postal Registration No Delhi Postal Registration No under ‘u’ Number UNDER 'U' NUMBER At Lodi Road, PSO on dated 28-29.01.2019 At Lodi Road, PSONewspaper on dated 28-29.01.2017 ISSN 0376-7256 Regd. No. 25597/73

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Newspaper Regd No. 25597/73

Indian Highways INDIAN HIGHWAYS `20/-

PUBLISHED ON 27 JANUARY 2017 FEBRUARY 2017

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Indian Highways Volume : 47 Number : 2 Total Pages : 56

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Edited and Published by Shri S.S.Nahar, Secretary General, Indian Roads Congress, IRC HQ, Sector-6, R.K.Puram, Kama Koti Marg, New Delhi - 110 022. Edited and Published ShriIndian S.K. Roads Nirmal, Secretary General, Indian Congress, IRC HQ,Okhla Sector-6, R.K.Area, Puram, Printed by Shri S.S.Nahar on behalf by of the Congress at M/s. I G Printers PvtRoads Ltd., 104, DSIDC Complex, Industrial Phase-I, New Delhi - 110 020. Kama Koti Marg, New Delhi - 110 022. Printed by Shri S.K. Nirmal on behalf of the Indian Roads Congress at M/s. Aravali Printers & Publishers Pvt. Ltd.

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