Global Warming & Climate Change

What is Global Warming?

Increase in long term average global surface temperature

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

What is Global Warming?

• Earth has warmed by about 0.7 ºC over the past 100 years. But why? And how? • Earth could be getting warmer due to natural causes • World's leading climate scientists think that warming is due to human activities

2

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

What is Global Warming? Nine of last ten years from 1996–2005 except 1996 rank among the warmest in global instrumental record obtained since 1861 Warmest year in entire record remains 1998, which was enhanced by 1997–1998 El Niño 2nd, 3rd and 4th warmest years were 2002, 2003, and 2004, respectively

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

What is Global Warming? Recent warming due to increase in GHGs •Carbon dioxide •Methane •Nitrous oxides •CFCs and HCFCs •HFCs

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

What is Global Warming? Polar ice core data show that current levels of atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O are way above levels in more than 650,000 years records Small variations in CO2 concentrations observed between end of last ice age and start of industrial era around 1750 are attributed to natural processes Atmospheric CO2 increased by 20 ppm over 8,000 years prior to industrialization while its concentration has risen by over 110 ppm since 1750

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

What is Global Warming?

Sources of Carbon Dioxide

Power generation

Land use change 6

Wastes

Agriculture

Livestock

Deforestation

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

What is Global Warming? • Without greenhouse effect earth’s temperature will be 30 deg C cooler and is not habitable • Problem is rapid rise of GHGs in atmosphere well above natural levels due to human-induced emission of CO2, methane, CFCs and its replacements

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

What is Global Warming?

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

What is Global Warming?

GHGs

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

What is Global Warming?

CO2 and other Greenhouse Gases

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

What is Climate Change? Global warming leads to Climate Change and enhances Climate Variability •Climate Change is change in long term global average temperature and rainfall •Climate Variability is change in seasonality of temperature and rainfall

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Climate Change •Recent warming observed from pre-industrial to present

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Climate Change

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Climate Change

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Key Changes in RP Climate Consistent with global trends: – Increasing temperature – Changing rainfall pattern – Rise of sea level – Intensification of extreme climate events • • •

Excessive rains Typhoons El Niño and La Niña Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Projected Climate Change in SE Asia 2010-2039 Temp OC A1F1

2040-2059

Rain %

Temp OC

B1

A1F1

B1

A1F1

DJF

0.9 0.7

-1

1

2.2

MAM

0.9 0.8

0

0

JJA

0.8 0.7

-1

SON

0.8 0.8

-2

B1

2060-2099

Rain %

Temp OC B1

Rain %

A1F1

B1

A1F1

A1F1

B1

1.3

2

4

3.9

2.0

6

4

2.3

1.3

3

3

3.8

2.0

0

2.1

1.3

0

1

3.6

1.9

7

1

0

1.3

1.3

-1

1

3.7

1.9

7

2

12

5

Source: IPCC AR4 Report Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Sea level rise could damage mangroves, coastal areas and corals Annual averages of global mean SL (mm) based on reconstructed SL fields since 1870, tide gauge measurements (blue) since 1950, and satellite altimetry (green) since 1992

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Notable Changes in RP Climate

Increasing Intensity

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Notable Changes in RP Climate MORE PROMINENT ENSO EVENTS – 1950 -1970 3 La Niña and 2 El Niño episodes – 1970 -2000 5 La Niña and 7 El Niño episodes – 1972-73 – 1982-83 – 1997-98

Strong warm (El Niño) events

– 1973-74 – 1988-89 – 1998-99

Strong cold (La Niña) events

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

(Sources: GRID Arendal/ Pachauri, 2003)

CC Impacts With bearing on economy

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Projected Climate Change in RP • More prominent ENSO events and a shift in seasonal cycle • Increase chances of summer droughts and floods • Increase in tropical cyclone intensities is suggested

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Key Observed CC Impacts in RP Average Yearly Damages from Typhoons (1975-2000) •

Annual deaths of 593

•

4.5 B pesos damage to property ($83 M)

•

3 B pesos damage to agriculture($55 M)

•

Strong typhoons + excessive rains = landslides

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Key Observed CC Impacts in RP

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Key Observed CC Impacts in RP Damages due to El Niño • Sharp decline in GVA in agriculture in 198283 and 1997-98 • Forest fires in 1982, 1992, and 1998 • Water production was reduced by 10% at Angat dam in 1997-98 El Niño • Reduced hydropower generation in Lake Lanao due to 1992 drought

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Ecosystems and environment will be more stressed due to: – Climate change – Population growth – Poverty – Land use change – Over utilization of resources – Pollution

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could diminish forest cover

Temperature increases and change in rainfall could lead to – Shrinking or expansion of forest cover – Migration to higher elevation – Forest loss due to fires and pests

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could diminish forest cover

The World 18,000 Years Ago Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could diminish forest cover

Our Present World Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could increase forest fires

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could affect wild plants and animals

Temperature increases beyond 1.5-2.5 degrees C will lead to – 20-30% of plants and animals are at increased risk of extinction Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could affect wild plants and animals

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could exacerbate water scarcity

Streamflow • Increase average annual runoff and water availability in some wet areas by 10-40%

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could exacerbate water scarcity

• Exacerbates water stress due to increasing demand • 10-30% decrease in dry areas which are already water stressed

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could exacerbate water scarcity • Exacerbates water pollution (thermal, bacterial, organic, nitrates, organic carbon)

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could exacerbate water scarcity

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could exacerbate water related extreme events Droughts Droughts

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could exacerbate water related extreme events 2004 Floods & Landslides in Aurora and Quezon

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could exacerbate water related extreme events Flashfloods

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could exacerbate water related extreme events Landslides

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could exacerbate water related extreme events Other Disasters Triggered by Excessive Rains: – Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster in 2003 – Camiguin flashfloods in 2001 – Payatas garbage slide in 2000 – Cherry Hill tragedy in 1999 – Ormoc catastrophe in 1991

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could decrease crop production In seasonally dry areas 1-2 OC - rise in temperature could lead to – Irrigation requirement will increase – Decrease in freshwater availability – Damages due to floods, droughts, typhoons – Affects flowering of plants – Decrease in productivity of rice, corn as in 1983 and 1998 Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could decrease crop production

Corn Source: Lansigan and Salvacion, 2007 Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could decrease crop production Major Corn Average Producing Annual Area Areas Harvested (ha) Region 2 Region 7 Region 9 Region 10

290415 245606 183783 395293

Region 11

198268

Region 12

472838

ARMMM

300679 Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could decrease crop production Average Major Corn Producing Annual Area Harvested Areas (ha) Region 2 Region 7 Region 9 Region 10

290415 245606 183783 395293

Region 11

198268

Region 12

472838

ARMMM

300679

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could decrease crop production Major Corn Average Producing Annual Area Areas Harvested (ha) Region 2 Region 7 Region 9 Region 10

290415 245606 183783 395293

Region 11

198268

Region 12

472838

ARMMM

300679

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could destroy marine and coastal ecosystems • Dry spell affected 20.6% of brackishwater fishponds in 1998 • Milkfish and seaweed production dropped by 10-80% • Fishkills and high mortality of cultured giant clams in 1997-98 ENSO

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could destroy marine and coastal ecosystems Temperature increases beyond 1.5-2.5 degrees C could cause • Coral bleaching due to CO2 acidification • Massive coral bleaching in 1998

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could increase food scarcity and hunger • Subsistence farmers will be most vulnerable • Inequitable access to food will exacerbate impact on poor • Poor farmers will be less able to adapt

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Sea level rise could damage mangroves, coastal areas and corals Sea level rise will: • Extend salt water intrusion and affect groundwater • Affect mangroves • Inundate coastal farms • Increase flood risks for settlement areas and infrastructure

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Seawater Freshwater

Seawater Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Sea level rise could damage mangroves, coastal areas and corals Mangroves, Marshes, Corals

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Ph

ica s y

v’t e lD

Se

a

ve e L

se i lR

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could increase incidence of vector and water borne diseases Dengue Malaria Cholera

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Could affect livelihood of poor communities Upland farming Collection of forest products Fishing Logging Handicrafts

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Bottom Line: Drag on economy and sustainable development

•Loss of lives •Destroy infra •Loss of income •More sickness •Poor to poorer

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE GHGs

MITIGATION

CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS

ADAPTATION

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Responding to Climate Change Mitigation • Reducing sources of carbon –Switching from coal to natural gas –Nuclear power –Wind and solar power

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Responding to Climate Change Mitigation • Reducing sources of carbon –Biofuels –Waste Mgt –Energy conservation

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Responding to Climate Change Mitigation Enhancing sinks of carbon – Reforestation – Afforestation – Reducing deforestation – Soil conservation to increase carbon storage

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Responding to Climate Change

Adaptation • increases resilience and capacity to cope with current and future changes in climate • reduces adverse effects of climate change and capitalize on opportunities

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Responding to Climate Change Most Vulnerable People and Places • Exposed • Sensitive • Low adaptive capacity – – – –

Non-resilient Low resources Less informed Ignorance Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation

Reduce Fuel Consumption

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation

Energy Conservation

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation

Avoid Burning

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation

Restore Denuded Lands

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation and Adaptation

Tree Planting

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation and Adaptation

Planting Trees Absorb Carbon Dioxide

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation and Adaptation

Planting Trees Protects Wildlife

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation and Adaptation

Planting Trees Protects the Soil

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation and Adaptation

Planting Trees Improve River Flow 25

Lumutan Linatin

Discharge (m3/s)

20

15

10

5

0 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 Year

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation and Adaptation

Planting Trees Improves Water Supply

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation and Adaptation

Conserve Paper and Other Wood Products

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation and Adaptation

Proper Use of Land

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Mitigation and Adaptation

Conserve Water

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Adaptation

Iwas Lamok

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Adaptation

Eat Well Sleep Well Be Well

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Adaptation

Learn •Read •Listen

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Adaptation

Be wise •Respect •Obey •Change

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Adaptation

Simple Life

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Tell Others

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

Help One Another

Photos from ABC News

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme

There’s Still Hope

Rex Victor O. Cruz UPLB CFNR Environmental Forestry Programme